From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Safety Dance: The safe thing to do if you're a Democrat running for president was to do what Clinton, Dodd, and Obama did: vote against the Iraq supplemental. But ask yourself this question: What if Clinton had voted for it? There was plenty of cover (including Al Gore, by the way), and she might have gotten very "presidential" type coverage since she was doing the supposedly unpopular thing. To put it another way, will anti-Iraq Democrats ever give her the credit for this vote?

*** A Tough Week: Speaking of Clinton, she's had quite a week, hasn't she? First, there was that now-rejected campaign memo recommending that she skip Iowa -- where, of all places, she campaigns today. Next, there was the vote on the Iraq supplemental. And now there's the early release of two biographies on her that will do nothing but dredge up the marriage chatter. The release of these Clinton books, in fact, will likely lead to some negative press for her. No surprise, but compared to Obama and Edwards, she had been garnering the best press of the three these first five months of the campaign. These books might change that.

*** The Silent Majority? Opponents of the Senate immigration bill -- and trust us, there are many -- like to point out how the legislation defies the will of the American people. But the New York Times/CBS poll shows something different: 66% favor a guest-worker program, and 62% believe that illegal immigrants who have lived in the US for two years should be allowed to apply for legal status.

*** The Right's New Target? Note how Giuliani and Romney ganged up on Edwards after he said that the war on terror is just a slogan. And Edwards shoved back. "George Bush has made America less safe and less respected in the world," he said in a statement yesterday. "The Republican candidates are now trying to double down on his failed foreign policy. They just don't get it. George Bush's strategy is a failure - the threat of terrorism has increased."

*** Three Additional Thoughts: A few things struck us about Bush's presser yesterday. One, he really wanted to talk about immigration, but didn't get enough questions on the topic. Maybe there really is an elite-grassroots disparity on this issue where we (the media) don't get what the grassroots doesn't like about this bill. Two, why did Bush TWICE personalize answers on Iraq by talking about the safety of individual reporters' children? Imagine if the media had personalized a question to Bush about his kids? Three, Bush used the phrase "different configuration" when talking about Iraq. You got the sense he and the White House have decided they don't want to use the word "redeployment" that is popular with Democrats, but still offer up the same idea.

*** On The Trail: As the Memorial Day holiday begins, Obama gives a speech in Chicago to the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists; Paul appears on Bill Maher's HBO show; Richardson fundraises in New Mexico; and Tommy Thompson campaigns in New Hampshire.

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 77 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 164 days
Countdown to Iowa: 233 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 255 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 528 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 605 days