From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice
*** Today's Senate Finance Forecast? Cloudy With A Chance Of Snowe: It's the 60-vote (million dollar) question. We write, of course, of Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe. What will she do? Obviously, she votes for this bill, right? This is the best deal she'll ever get and she wants to be part of the process, right? This isn't in doubt, right? She got everything she wanted, right? Nothing will put a damper on the expected passage of the Senate Finance Committee health care reform bill other than a result that does NOT include Snowe voting in the affirmative. She's the cover the White House needs, NOT for bipartisanship, but for wooing Democrats like Ben Nelson and Tom Carper and Blanche Lincoln and Evan Bayh. Snowe is today's most powerful politician in Washington when it comes to health care. Forget Harry Reid, Max Baucus or Barack Obama, her vote today will signal how the process of merging the House and Senate bills go forward. If she votes no, then the power center shifts from the middle to the progressive end of things inside the Democratic Party on this issue. But if she votes yes, then look for Reid to use the Finance Committee bill as the basis for the merged bill in the Senate. Snowe might not be the most charismatic senator but she certainly has a flair for the dramatic.

*** E Tu, Karen? Meanwhile, the White House and Democrats are still reeling from the last minute attack by the insurance industry on the Finance Committee bill. So nervous was the White House that the insurance industry attack could scuttle the fragile coalition they've been building in the Senate, they responded VERY aggressively. White House health care policy director Nancy Ann DeParle was dispatched to take on the head of the insurance industry trade association, Karen Ignagni. Both appeared last night on "The News Hour." DeParle said she was "disappointed the industry had contrived a report like this at the last minute, right on the eve of a historic vote." DeParle had held meetings with health insurers last week, and told NBC yesterday that she was "blindsided" by the report. Citing what she called an "egregious example of the analysis," she said a prediction that a high-cost excise tax on so-called Cadillac insurance plans would be borne by Americans was untrue, and that AHIP was aware of this. "Well, they say themselves -- this is sort like of an analysis where you said, we all know the earth is round, but, if it were flat, look what it would look like.  It's absurd." Ignagni was asked in a separate interview if not putting a tax on high-value plans would encourage people to choose less generous plans, to which she responded, "well, it may do that." She also cited cost containment as a necessary component of insurance reform across the medical industry spectrum.  Can the White House use this attack to galvanize Democrats for the Baucus bill? Perhaps, at least that's what they are counting on today. Paging Dr. Machiavelli, Senate Caucus Room 2, Dr. Machiavelli, Room 2?

*** Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Just how sensitive is the White House to the increased GOP rhetoric about jobs? Very. In the latest in a series of missives between House Minority Leader John Boehner and National Economic Council president Larry Summers, Boehner asks, "Where are the jobs?  In February, Mr. Summers himself said Americans would see the effects of the stimulus 'almost immediately' but since it took effect our economy has lost roughly three million jobs and more families and small businesses are struggling than ever before." Last week, Boehner and other Republican leaders sent Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a letter decrying the "unsuccessful stimulus" and outlining ideas for job creation, to which Summers responded citing "a substantial change in the trend of job loss."  So Summers shot back in a lengthy response letter that included a pledge to look at some of the GOP ideas on tax credits but also included some shots at the GOP for what Summers believes was the fiscal mismanagement of the last eight years. Still, Summers's engagement is both a sign the White House is going to fight back on the attacks but also is ready to start quietly looking at new legislation in an attempt to stimulate job growth.

*** Barbs Heavy In Light Trading: So the two candidates for Virginia governor traded "barbs." Ok, so they didn't actually throw sharp spiky things at each other but both tried to hit at the other's biggest vulnerability. Republican nominee Bob McDonnell barely answered ANY question without accusing Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds of wanting to (or voting for) tax hikes. Deeds, while not DIRECTLY citing the infamous thesis on women, kept harping on how McDonnell had undergone a political makeover. The good news for Deeds, he seemed comfortable going on the attack (some had questioned his killer instinct) and the better news for him, most folks will READ about this debate, not watch it. If the Virginia gubernatorial televised debates got the same level of coverage as the presidential debates, would Deeds even have a chance? McDonnell is still in the driver's seat and didn't make any major gaffes. All of the post-debate coverage is about Deeds and that's simply because he's the guy behind as many are actually wondering if this thing is completely slipping away.

*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Our 12-state series concludes today with a supposedly deep blue state (New York) and a supposedly deep red state (Texas) though there are signs of life for both minority parties.

*** Texas: The marquee race of the cycle could very well be taking place in Texas as the Republican primary for governor has the potential to be one for the ages. A sitting senator taking on the longest serving governor in the country. Does it get any better than this? Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison in one corner vs. Republican Rick Perry in the other. Hutchison has the challenge of trying to convince the state's Republican electorate she's conservative enough to represent the party. Perry's trying to disqualify her on that front but the bad news for him is this primary seems to be more about personalities and on that score, Hutchison probably has the edge. The fallout from this primary could have implications on the Democrats. Hutchison may resign her senate seat (seems VERY likely) giving Democrats a decent shot, because of the quirky winner-take-all special election. Moreover if Hutchison then LOSES the primary, Perry could be VERY vulnerable in the general (perhaps against the brother of CBS' Bob Schieffer). What a year in Texas! Maybe First Read should open up an Austin bureau!

*** New York: Prostitutes. Cheating spouses. Cocaine. Backbiting. Infighting. Dirty tricks. Even a coup. It's not an episode of Desperate Housewives; it's the devolution of New York politics. Eliot Spitzer's resignation in May of last year -- after being named Client No. 9 for frequenting high-end prostitutes -- set off a chain of events that threatened to undermine Democrats' stronghold in what has become one of the bluest of blue states. Since then, the state government shut down after Democrats defected, and Spitzer's replacement (David Paterson), unable to take control in Albany, has seen his approval numbers dive into the toilet. The White House and state Democrats have urged him to step aside in 2010 to clear the path for Andrew Cuomo, the state attorney general and son of former Governor Mario Cuomo. If Paterson, whom polls show losing to Rudy Giuliani for governor, stays in and it gets nasty, the Pandora's Box of racial politics threatens to open a fissure among state Democrats and could weaken the brand statewide. With redistricting at stake in a state with several competitive Upstate House seats, Democrats can't afford to that. It does, however, look like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand will hold on after her controversial appointment -- unless someone like former Gov. George Pataki jumps in. BTW, Pataki seems more likely with every passing day.

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 21 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 56 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 98 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 385 days

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