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With the news that DNC Chairman and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) is “increasingly likely” to run in Virginia and Rep. Dean Heller (R) getting into the Nevada race, we thought we’d bring you another Senate Top 10, our second of the year. (Numbers in parentheses represent its previous ranking.)
Republicans need to flip three seats to take control of the Senate. Eight of our Top 10 are Democratic-held seats.
1. North Dakota (D) (1): Still No. 1 and probably be there for a while with Sen. Kent Conrad’s (D) decision to retire.
2. Nebraska (D) (3): Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is the most vulnerable incumbent in the country and is going to get a strong GOP challenger. Nelson was ranked the most conservative Democrat in the Senate in 2010, but Republicans hope the bad press Nelson received for the “Cornhusker Kickback” during the health-care debate will be the boost they need. The GOP challengers: Jon Bruning (state attorney general) and Don Stenberg (state treasurer). By the way, this would be Stenberg’s fourth (!) run at the Senate seat. Nelson is happy about Stenberg's entrance if only to keep the GOP primary active.
3. Montana (D) (4): Freshman Democrat Jon Tester has been highlighting spending cutbacks, but he could still face an uphill battle. He narrowly won in 2006 against a flawed candidate, and he faces a real Republican challenger in Rep. Denny Rehberg. Notice Rehberg was minding his right flank with his NO vote on the C.R.
4. Missouri (D) (6): Sen. Claire McCaskill has worked to carve out a role as a Truman-esque watchdog in the Senate, but her constituents – especially independents -- haven’t rewarded her efforts with robust approval ratings. A recent tough news story about her use of taxpayer money for private planes will be fodder for attacks. Remember, the issue for McCaskill is that most Missourians don't fly on private planes, period, no matter who pays for it.
5. Virginia (D) (5): Political junkies are smiling at the thought of a matchup between former Gov. Tim Kaine and ’06 Senate race loser George Allen (who’ll have to beat back a Tea Party primary challenge). We’ve already predicted a 51%-49% race, and we’re stickin’ to it with the presidential winner carrying the senate nominee.
6. New Mexico (D) (unranked): Jeff Bingaman’s retirement puts this seat in play, but it could be a tough get for Republicans in a state that swung for Obama in 2008. Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is considered the strongest GOP candidate but will likely face a thorny path through the primary to the general election.
7. Nevada (R) (2): Finally, we get to a Democratic target. Heller’s entrance gave Republicans a much better chance at holding this seat than if John Ensign stayed in the race. A Democratic candidate has yet to emerge. Do Democrats face a crowded primary or can they clear the field for a one-on-one with Heller? In a presidential year, this is going to be a hotly contested battleground with the president trying to mobilize the Hispanic base that makes up 27% of the state’s electorate.
8. Massachusetts (R) (7): This is probably potentially Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. But Scott Brown (R) remains the most popular politician in the state. As the campaign heats up and a Democratic opponent emerges does some of that start to change in this reliably blue state?
9. Florida (D) (8): Like Nevada and Ohio, there is going to be a lot of activity in this state in a presidential year. Can Bill Nelson hang on in the state that elected Rick Scott (R) governor in 2010?
10. Michigan (D) (9): Is Obama’s campaigning in the state going to be enough to put Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over the finish line? A poll out at the end of February showed her only beating Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) by two percentage points.
Other Senate races on our radar (in alphabetical order): AZ, CT, IN (does Lugar survive a primary), ME (ditto for Olympia Snowe), NJ (Menendez’s race in ’06 was very tight), OH (Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) poll numbers look good right now. But a lot can change in this key presidential state), PA, TX (Dems always think they can play here because of the demographic changes, but the bench is really thin), WA, WI (does Herb Kohl retire?), WV.
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Nice to see the crystal balls been polished off...
Personally, I believe 'tea leaves' are more accurate but, whatever...
Bottom line is, there is already more than enough buyers remorse to go around out there.
The voters put these charlatans into office on the promise of J O B S & the economy, given that they have kept a SINGLE promise as of today, I don't think Democrats have too much to worry about!
Remember JOBS & the economy? That was ALL we heard about leading up to the 2010 election - since then... not a peep out of any one including the MSM!
You have that right, Feisty...but Republicans are second to none in their war against the middle class, the poor, women, children, and oh, yes, minorities.
Hey Feisty, I e-mail John Boehner every morning asking him "Where are the jobs?"
Yay, dottielou!
Let me guess, he sends you back a empty bourbon bottle & a coupon for a free tanning session? lol
Keep up the good work & hold his little orange feet to the fire dottielou! ;o)
You should see all the antics of the hard working peaceful pro-union protesters in WI, too. Boycotting businesses who are not unionized or who will not release statements excoriating Walker, property damage to vehicles, homes and businesses, death threats. While Feisty & co are crowing about how fired up their base is, they're ignoring how fired up our base is at their antics. Should make for an interesting election next year.
Always glad when Suzy steps into to remind us how the "teabaggers" mischaracterize the right to peacefully assemble. Quit hating your neighbors.
Teabaggers believe that the protections guaranteed in the Constitution only applies to them!
chilled
The constituition specifically protects the right to assembly and to petition the government for redress, however Republicans have taken it upon themselves to bust public worker unions because they would rather destroy such organizations than negotiate with them. So much for "free market" ideals. The free market only applies to letting corporations do whatever they want, under the theory that competition will arise that will check them, but no competition from the needs of workers can be tolerated. Republicans smash unions but are fine with corporations using their wealth to influence everything from regulations to the suppression of alternative energy technology. Republicans are hypocrites.
So true Amy!
Each and every one of us, I suppose, is a mini CoC, Koch, Exxon, and on and on after the Citizens United decision.
Millions of dollars by corporations........to influence and control the elected Representatives who only think about their own jobs, not the individual constitutents who voted to put them in office.
Elections do indeed have consequences....kinda like reaping what you sow!......Democrats were complacent last fall........and here we are!
Where are the jobs?
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL "Bottom line is, there is already more than enough buyers remorse to go around out there."
Probably true, but not in the way you think.
What's really interesting is that, in 2010, the Republicans picked up about 35% of the contested Senate seats held by Democrats, and lost none. In 2012, the Democrats (& ind) will have 23 seats to defend, while the Republicans have only 11. A pickup of 4 will swing the Senate to the Republicans.
By the way, to answer 'Where are the jobs?' since the Republicans took over the House, you'll notice that all of the bills passed by the Republican led House are in Harry Reid's pocket, where he says "They will never be voted on if he has his way". It's pretty hard for any progress to be made with Harry's attitude.
For my good friend NewDay who refuses to accept fact:
http://www.newstalk1130.com/pages/mckenna_blog.html
http://www.620wtmj.com/news/local/117732923.html
http://www.weau.com/home/headlines/Senator_Kapankes_car_damaged_gets_death_threats_118215739.html
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/117929494.html
I tried to hit a number of different sources just so you wouldn't think I was going specifically for republican leaning sites.
I'll take "D" 10 out of 10. But it was awful nice of you guys to give them a chance. I give Scott Brown the lean to be more away from the TEA Drinkers after that campaign.
LouisJ, that would be like picking every lower seed in the NCAA--gonna have to face the facts--the Dems have a lot more seats to lose this next election cycle--so bet on them losing a few.
Recent polling shows Snowe unpopular with 50% of state Republicans, so there is a good chance she could lose her primary. She is still (still!) gets high approval from Democrats and Independents, but I am hoping, hoping, hoping the Dems find a strong challenger to go go against her.
Umm, that's because it should say (D) after her name. A RINO if ever there was one.
Suzy - Snowe is what a Republican HAS ande SHOULD look like not the kind that have been creeping around the Capitol and State Houses across this country. I can guarantee you that the "Scott Walker Republicans" (sounds like a brand of wiskey) will be history come 2012. Their extreme views are not compatible with a democratic society and many Republicans feel the same way. Extremists are always shown the door once they've been exposed. Walker and Republicans like him ran as moderates and then did a 360 once in office. The war on the Middle Class and the workers will not be tolerated by the majority in this country of which you are not one.
Amy---you should consider running. With your political savvy and sense of humor you'd do great on the campaign trail.
laurie,
that's right, not even good enough to be a johnny walker - ha ha
Clara - I would say Republicans are more like Boons Farm Apple Wine! Uugh! LOL!! You might be able to tolerate on the way down but look out the next morning.
Let’s hope the American people will continue to show more buyers’ remorse with the Republicans –Tea People in office, and keep these con artists out.
Two bad apples should not spoil a bunch.
Yep, Job 1. On the Democratic side, we think that lawbreaking should result in jail. On the "teabagger" side, they do it in legislatures and can't figure out why people might object.
Republicans took over the state house and governor's mansion in Maine in 2010, and they have spent the last two months weakening environmental protection laws, threatening our popular bottle bill at the behest of beverage distributers, weakening the seat belt law, (never knew that was a burning issue with anybody), and actively smearing the previous Democratic governor every chance they get. Tax cuts for wealthy are also in budget, natch. They are doing everything except creating jobs.
Maine used to be known for bipartisan cooperation and civility in state government. Now that's gone out the window as the Republicans are repealing laws that were passed by previous Republican administrations, in an attempt to please their big campaign donors. And smearing a hardworking, ethical, public servant in former Governor John Baldacci to boot!
What do we think about Donald Trump joining the birthers. The man is an egomaniac, he thinks because he is rich he can buy the election. Does the two riches woman in the 2010 campaign ring a bell. He also said that if you go back to his kindergarten days, people would remember him. I say people would remember him because they would say "What the hell is going on with that hair"
Great posts, Dottielou---I love that you email Boehner every day. Sorry he isn't listening to you.
I can understand that a certain portion of the Republican base has to be catered to with the birtherism nonsense but I wouldn't think that segment would ever support Donald Trump---guess I'm wrong about that.
I wonder what his hair looked like in kindergarten?
The Republicans will get to 55 seats in the Senate. 60 is unlikely, but possible.
By Oct 2012, Obama's campaign will have thrown the Senate Dems under the bus; Obama's campaign theme will be that he will be a 'check' on the Republican House and Senate, one party ruling the government is a bad thing....he could point to Democrats in 2009 as a great example.
Bob - Stop smoking that weed brother....you're seeing visions...it's a mirage. You need Republican Rehab before it's too late.
laurie: There must be a 12 step program for people trying to recover from the "teabagger" cult.
newday - Yeah....I think it starts with a seminar entitled "Hallelujah, You're Worthy".
Snowe and Brown would win if Republicans weren't out to eat their own. When the Tea Party finds some bats@#t candidate to replace them both seats will switch to "D".
"[NM] could be a tough get for Republicans in a state that swung for Obama in 2008"
Jeez, still hanging your hat on what happened in 2008? Voters have moved on from their mistake.
Ask Scott Brown, Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and dozens of GOP state and national officials elected in states that voted for Obama in '08.
Bob - I hate to break this to you but Christie's poll numbers have started moving down as more people in NJ find he's not doing such a great job. You know the rock 'em sock 'em robot schtick will only take you so far in this state. The fine art of compromise has been left on the side of the road but people here are not extremists and expect cooperation from all sides.
The Rethuglicans are SOOO full of SOOO much B.S, its no longer even ludicrously hypocritical. Its just plain STUPID ! They want Gov't out of peoples lives, but want to monitor ALL pregnancies in the country, even to the point of re-labeling what constitutes Rape !?!?!? I DO NOT Understand HOW They could get ANY woman to vote for them with mentality.
And as for the deficit? WHAT A CROCK -- especially when they DEMAND cuts for the working class, but INSIST on tax cuts for the rich ? And as well, they demand cutting benefits and laying off teachers by the thousands, in the name of "saving our childrens future. . . " well, HERES a question for the hypocrites in the GOP . . . WHAT do you think laying off thousands of teachers is going to do to our childrens future? There is NO WAY it is NOT sacrificing the quality of their education !
The more the GOP/TP talks the less they are liked. And the more they try to figure out how to govern the funnier they get. Kinda like the GOP/TP bunch around here.
Looks like many of the moonbats took a cue from their public employee brethren in Massachusetts and started imbibing early; yesterday was the famous "High Hack Holy Day", the local holiday called "Evacuation Day" when the British left Boston. A sacred time among the public sector unions, to give thanks and enjoy their lifetime free ride at taxpayers expense.
The hacks get extra holidays in Massachusetts , as a present from their relatives, the Dem politicians who got them hired to their useless lifetime sinecures...
Bob - Who do you think you are anyway? What are you talking about free ride at taxpayers expense? Public sector workers provide services that most states' residents would be screaming for if they weren't available. Witness any government shutdown and you'll see what I mean. People get very upset when their government isn't available to them for the things they need. State workers as a majority put in their time just like any other worker in any company would. There are alway bad apples but that's no different in any work environment. Bob, I think envy is one of the 7 deadly sins.....not good for you.
California State Engineers Scientist reach a new labor agreement
Although we all feel cheated but keep in mind that we didn't want to deal with Arnold one way or another ... and we were willing and "hoping" to do better with Jerry! And the money the unions sepnd on getting Jerry elected is not a total loss, don't forget with Meg Whitman in office we would be Wisconsin right now!! Guranteed!! Koch Brothers poured money into both Meg's and Karly's campaigns too, and Meg was never shy about her anti-union position, except the police of course!!
Histotically most dictators and tirants in the world always try to keep, at least, the Army happy because that's who will protect them ... Arnold protected CHP, Scott Walker is doing the same in Wisconsin, and Meg had promised to leave the CHP and most police forces alone and they all financed her campaign also. Bottom line, let's just lick our wounds, move on, and pray that we don't have Meg or tea party in the Office.
This is a comment on the State Worker Board.
California is leading the way, the way down a black hole. I am a firm believer that Federal and State Workers should not be unionized. It doesn't make sense. Look at us in California. We have a Democrat Governor backed by the Unions and both houses are Democrat controled. So how does it work? The Unions gets the dues from employees, use the money to get whom ever they want elected and then negotiate contracts with the Governor
Where is the private sector protection?
Now they are trying to negotiate a budget and Brown/Unions and they are not will to make any concessions. Brown is asking 5 years tax extensions and offers nothing in return. They have had these extentions for two years and nothing to show for it.
Something is wrong with this picture.
I love to dabble in some Senate Speculation - here's my take:
1. ND is a goner, sad but true
2. NE is iffy. I can totally see Bill Nelson highlighting how he's brought home the bacon for his state and that Kickback was FOR the people. Nebraska is quite a bit smarter than Kansas on the political front and it may very well fly. (I am not holding out much hope; but if the economy improves and there aren't reasons to vote AGAINST him - he may retain)
3. MT is high risk loss for Dems, again - much can happen; but we'll see
4. I love Claire McCaskill. She is definitely more of a pragmatic blue dog and I would say she is at risk unless the economy improves significantly. People here know she is rich and she paid the money back,...but then again, they just voted Roy Blunt and they didn't elect President Obama for the first Presidential "Miss" in the history of the state,...so - yeah, this is a risk at best.
5. Dems keep Virginia, although I am personally disgruntled with Kaine and his complete INVISIBILITY at the DNC - VA has been trending blue and I don't see it changing. I have family and friends there and they are definitely not happy with the Governor, yet - so, time will tell; but I think it stays blue.
6. I also think the Dems keep New Mexico. They have a silent Libertarian movement that fancies them some Ron Paul politics - which will split any Repub chance,...just my opinion, of course.
7. NV - I think this is a real chance for Dems to pick this one up. There are many unions in Nevada and with the all out Union Busting of the Right,...people will be highly motivated. Also, this state has legalized prostitution, which is a huge revenue source. How do the Rightwingers 'reconcile' that with their values? It just doesn't compute; but then again, I never figured out how Ensign got elected in the first place. And then his refusal to step down after what is pretty well accepted as foolish shenanigans,...well go figure.
8. MA - Dems will totally take this back if they run a clean organized campaign and don't take the voters for granted. They pretty much need to run the ANTI Coakley candidate - but I think MA has been less than impressed with the wonder boy book author and sometimes Senator. Perhaps I am projecting?
9. FL has become so rightwing I simply can't believe it. This is very much at risk and unless the Repubs do something DRASTIC with social security, Repubs will probably take it.
10. MI - No way in light of the Wisconsin debacle that Stabenow loses this seat. I just don't see it.
11. ME - I am going to say if Snowe gets primaried, the Dems take this one. LePage is leaving a pretty bad taste in people's mouths,...
OKay, Ron - put these in the vault. I reserve the right to waffle; but this is where my head is at. See you at the DDI later on - super busy and need to get my end of week stuff DONE!
Hard to see why everyone writes off ND for the Democrats. Who are the announced candidates? People in ND do often vote people over party.
krugman was right. this is the first time in our history that congress has given up on the unemployed. hell, they given up on everyone who doesn't have deep pockets!
What's with all the hate toward the Tea Party?
Before you press hold on your voter card, make sure you know who got our Country in this mess. See below. Read "One Nation Under Contract" The Outsourcing of American Power and Foreign Policy. By. Allison Stanger. What she was saying on Jon Stewart Show was hard for me to believe, so i did some research and i was in a state of shock, i don't believe the American public know a lot of this stuff.
Winning Contractors:
U.S. Contractors Reap the Windfalls of Post-war Reconstruction
By The Center for Public Integrity*
WASHINGTON, October 30, 2003 — More than 70 American companies and individuals have won up to $8 billion in contracts for work in postwar Iraq and Afghanistan over the last two years, according to a new study by the Center for Public Integrity. Those companies donated more money to the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush—a little over $500,000—than to any other politician over the last dozen years, the Center found.
Kellogg, Brown & Root, the subsidiary of Halliburton—which Vice President Dick Cheney led prior to being chosen as Bush's running mate in August 2000—was the top recipient of federal contracts for the two countries, with more than $2.3 billion awarded to the company. Bechtel Group, a major government contractor with similarly high-ranking ties, was second at around $1.03 billion.
However, dozens of lower-profile, but well-connected, companies shared in the reconstruction bounty. Their tasks ranged from rebuilding Iraq's government, police, military and media to providing translators for use in interrogations and psychological operations. There are even contractors to evaluate the contractors. (See company list.)
Nearly 60 percent of the companies had employees or board members who either served in or had close ties to the executive branch for Republican and Democratic administrations, for members of Congress of both parties, or at the highest levels of the military.
The results of the Center's six-month investigation provide the most comprehensive list to date of American contractors in the two nations that were attacked in Washington's war on terror. Based on the findings, it did not appear that any one government agency knew the total number of contractors or what they were doing. Congressional sources said they hoped such a full picture would emerge from the General Accounting Office, which has begun investigating the postwar contracting process amid allegations of fraud and cronyism.
The Center's investigation focused on the three agencies that awarded most of the Iraq and Afghanistan contracts in 2002 and 2003—the Pentagon, the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. It found that nearly every one of the 10 largest contracts awarded for Iraq and Afghanistan went to companies employing former high-ranking government officials or individuals with close ties to those agencies or Congress.
In addition, those top 10 contractors were established political donors, contributing nearly $11 million to national political parties, candidates and political action committees since 1990, according to an analysis of campaign finance records.
Indeed, most of the companies that won contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan were political players. According to the Center's analysis, the companies, their political action committees and their employees contributed a total of nearly $49 million to national political campaigns and parties since 1990. Donations to Republican Party committees—the Republican National Committee, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee—outpaced those to Democratic committees, $12.7 million to $7.1 million. Among individual candidates, President George Bush received more money from these companies than any other, a little over $500,000.