September 2006 - Posts
Special to First Read from National Journal's The Hotline
It’s been a long 48 hours for the House Republican leadership. It all started when the media began reporting on the inappropriate email and instant message exchanges between now-ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) and an underage teenager..... The timeline of what Speaker Dennis Hastert knew and when he knew it, has seemed to change throughout the last 48 hours. Late 9/30 p.m., the Speaker’s office released a fairly detailed explanation of when Speaker’s office first learned of the complaint. But the explanation doesn’t answer every question.
For instance, clearly, Foley’s actions raised enough alarm bells that a number of investigating actions were started late last year and in early spring. In addition, ABC News reports that the 16-year-old page had been warned to watch out for Foley, suggesting that the congressman's behavior was an open secret among the folks that ran the page program. If this is true, it implies Foley’s behavior was more systematic and known..... What isn’t clear is why no one other than the clerk of the House and GOP Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL), the member in charge of the Page program, directly spoke with Foley.
More importantly, and this question may decide whether Republicans retain control of the House, how thorough was the investigation conducted by the clerk and Shimkus? What exactly did that "investigation" discover and/or conclude? It only took ABC News about a day to go from knowing nothing to knowing, well, too much about the contact Foley had with underage pages.....
Read carefully the details Hastert’s office released regarding how they investigated the allegation. Is it really the regular practice of the House GOP leadership staff to keep the Speaker out of the loop when it comes to questionable conduct by Members?
Hastert is notoriously slow when encouraging a wounded member of his party to get going. From Tom DeLay to Bob Ney, Hastert never seems willing to push members into what needs to be done.....
It’s important to note that when the House GOP leadership first apparently learned of something amiss with Foley and a page, the GOP leadership team was in flux..... Did the House GOP leadership vacuum that was created by DeLay’s departure lead to a situation where no one was calling the political shots? And did that sense of chaos create anxiety, preventing Republicans from taking the steps necessary to protect these underage pages?
No doubt, every member of the House GOP leadership that knew of this Foley problem before this week regrets not pursuing a more thorough investigation. But isn’t the argument Democrats will now make when reviving the "culture of corruption" tagline (or even a "culture of arrogance of power" tagline) is that the House GOP leadership just doesn’t have the capacity or the intellectual curiosity to investigate questionable activity, whether it involves a member of their own caucus or more serious public policy concerns like the war in Iraq?
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Huma Zaidi
In a news conference today, Senate Democratic leaders lashed out against the Bush Administration, as they latched onto claims made in Bob Woodward's book "State of Denial" -- such as the Administration ignoring pleas that more troops were needed in Iraq to quell the insurgency there. These Democrats also renewed calls for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to be fired. Said Carl Levin, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee: "The President has got to end his stubborn insistence that things are going just fine in Iraq." And said Minority Leader Harry Reid: "It's time for the misleading, the mistakes, the misconduct to end."
But at his briefing today, White House press secretary Tony Snow compared Woodward's book to cotton candy, in that it "kind of melts on contact." He said allegations that the Administration ignored advice from military commanders are untrue. "The reason for not going with the suggestion is that the Generals and the military commanders had suggested a different course of action. But on the other hand, if you take a look at the arc of troops during that year, guess what happened? More troops were added during the course of the year," Snow said. "The President has also made it clear that he continues to respond, as Commander-in-Chief, to developments on the ground and to requests from commanders," he added.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Florida Rep. Mark Foley (R) has announced that he's resigning from the House, effective today. The motivation: The recent release of personal e-mails he sent to a male teenage page on Capitol Hill. Foley in his statement: "I am deeply sorry and I apologize for letting down my family and the people of Florida I have had the privilege to represent." Foley's district includes Martin County, St. Lucie County, and Palm Beach County. President Bush received 54% there in 2004, and Foley himself was re-elected with 68% that year.
The campaign of Tim Mahoney (D), who is challenging Foley for his seat, says their understanding of state election law is that the GOP can basically choose a replacement for Foley in that his name will stay on the November ballot, but the party will get to decide who receives his votes. So does this sudden shake-up improve Democrats' chances of winning this Republican-leaning seat? It's unclear today, though in the current political climate, any change could wind up having repercussions at the polls. What's for sure is that until now, national Republicans never expected to have to worry about this seat.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Thirty-nine days from election day... After a week of minor bombshells, we're wondering if maybe October came a little early this year as far as surprises go. From a political standpoint, the first reports on the National Intelligence Estimate gave Democrats ammunition for their effort to keep the public's attention focused on the unpopular war in Iraq and their argument that it has made America less safe. The Bush Administration's declassification of further portions of the NIE helped them counter Democrats' arguments. Bob Woodward's forthcoming book has the Administration back on the defensive by charging that they've been hiding the truth about the situation in Iraq.
And now Jack Abramoff has reared his head again, to the possible detriment of the GOP, via a House committee report on White House contacts with the lobbyist. (Which means that scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. William Jefferson is about to be thrust back into the spotlight by countering Republicans again.)
On the one hand, the impact of White House and GOP's month-long push to make fighting terrorism the central issue of the midterm elections has been blunted somewhat. On the other hand, five and a half weeks before election day, Democrats are expending a lot of energy debating Republicans on Republicans' chosen turf. From the bully pulpit that has served him well throughout September, President Bush himself is now calling Democrats "the party of cut and run." His comment yesterday was striking given that he had previously refrained from using this GOP catch-phrase which oversimplifies the Democratic position on the war in Iraq (while at the same time, Republicans also like to point out that Democrats don't have a unified position on the war). Also up until yesterday, Bush always made a point of saying he doesn't question Democrats' patriotism.
At this writing, the President is about to give his first big speech on the war on terror since his address to the United Nations last Wednesday. The speech was added to his schedule two days ago, probably in anticipation of having successes to tout on the legislative front as Congress prepares to leave town, including the defense spending bill and the detainee trial and treatment bill. After the Senate passed the latter bill last night, the House is expected to approve it today and send it to Bush for his signature. The House has also approved the NSA warrantless wiretapping bill, though it's not expected to clear Congress before they depart and its chances for passage during the lame-duck session are uncertain. Bush's audience this morning -- again, a military one -- will be the Reserve Officers Association.
A House Government Reform Committee report being released today finds that Abramoff had 66 contacts with White House staff over a three-year period in Bush's first term, including 10 contacts with Karl Rove, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports. In all, Abramoff and his associates at lobbying firm Greenberg Traurig had 485 contacts with the White House from January 2001 to March 2004, 345 of which were in person. Half of the face-to-face meetings involved meals or drinks. The data comes from documents supplied to the committee by Greenberg Traurig, and offers great detail about the number and nature of the contacts gleaned from billing records and e-mails.
And we've got two midterm election notes for you: Sunday brings the next Meet the Press Senate debate -- this time between Sen. Mike DeWine (R) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) of Ohio. The latest media poll in the state shows Brown leading DeWine by five points. And on Monday morning, we'll be releasing the first battery of statewide polls conducted for MSNBC and polling partner McClatchy Newspapers by the opinion research firm Mason-Dixon. The polls will cover the top Senate races, as well as the California governor's race. Check MSNBC.com on Monday morning for your horse-race fix.
Got calendar?
Summing up President Bush's striking speech in Birmingham, AL yesterday, the Los Angeles Times says that in addition to the "cut and run" line, he "angrily accused Democratic leaders... of misrepresenting" the NIE, "said they favored policies that would increase the nation's vulnerability to terrorist attacks," and "singled out statements by... the top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees, although he quoted neither by name."
Among the details in Woodward’s new book, the New York Times says, is that the White House ignored a plea in November 2003 from a top adviser in Iraq that more US soldiers were needed there to stop the insurgency.
On the detainee bill, the Financial Times reminds us that the Bush Administration had appeared to be on the defensive on the issue earlier this summer, but that a "turning point came on September 6, when Mr Bush reframed the debate about tribunals by announcing plans to transfer 14 high-profile al-Qaeda suspects... to Guantanamo Bay to await trial. The move transformed an abstruse legal debate into a more personalised one about how to treat those accused of being behind the worst terrorist attack on US soil."
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Bloomberg points out, "None of the goals [Bush] set out in his January 2005 State of the Union address -- overhaul of the Social Security system, restructuring the tax code, reshaping medical-malpractice law -- was achieved. Bush's proposed overhaul of immigration laws is in limbo because of divisions between House and Senate Republicans." Also, the GOP Hill leadership was dealt a few blows: House Majority Leader Tom DeLay resigned and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist stumbled.
The Los Angeles Times says the House GOP's border-fence bill might be approved by the Senate before the session ends -- or it might not. A last-minute push to add a guest-worker program for agricultural workers to the bill could derail it. The "move creates a dilemma for Frist, eager for victories to counter criticism of a GOP 'do-nothing Congress.' It also highlights the long-standing tension over immigration that is coming to a head in these waning days of the 109th Congress."
Along with his committee's report, House Government Reform chair Tom Davis (R) released a statement last night "portraying Abramoff’s efforts to lobby the Bush administration as largely ineffective," Roll Call says. "Davis also pointed out that Abramoff’s billing records and e-mail exchanges do not mean that events unfolded as he claimed to either his firm or his clients." Meanwhile, a "summary prepared for Democratic leaders by staffers for" ranking member Rep. Henry Waxman "stated that the information provided by the Abramoff documents may show wrongdoing on the part of top White House officials." Top Bush officials "have denied having any close relationship with Abramoff."
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The Dow industrials closed yesterday at 11718.45, "their second-highest close on record and short of a closing level investors haven't seen since Jan. 14, 2000, when the blue-chip average closed at 11722.98 at the height of the dot-com bubble."
In an interview yesterday with the Wall Street Journal, Bush "said he would speed up his alternative-energy push during the remainder of his term with new spending focused on easing bottlenecks that are slowing the spread of ethanol in the market." He also "also damped speculation that his administration is exploring a major shift in global-warming policy." And he "said he is interested in talking with" top auto industry executives "after the November elections, but he appeared to hold out little hope that the federal government would take the lead in relieving the companies of their huge legacy costs for retired workers."
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The Dow industrials closed yesterday at 11718.45, "their second-highest close on record and short of a closing level investors haven't seen since Jan. 14, 2000, when the blue-chip average closed at 11722.98 at the height of the dot-com bubble."
In an interview yesterday with the Wall Street Journal, Bush "said he would speed up his alternative-energy push during the remainder of his term with new spending focused on easing bottlenecks that are slowing the spread of ethanol in the market." He also "also damped speculation that his administration is exploring a major shift in global-warming policy." And he "said he is interested in talking with" top auto industry executives "after the November elections, but he appeared to hold out little hope that the federal government would take the lead in relieving the companies of their huge legacy costs for retired workers."
"Bush is delivering two years early on his promise to cut the federal budget deficit below 2 percent of gross domestic product.," Bloomberg reports. But: "The achievement may be short-lived because the deficit will widen again in the coming year." Why? "Tax receipts, which were running more than 10 percent ahead of last year for the entire first half of 2006, have since slowed."
The Des Moines Register reports that several middle-class tax breaks will expire at the end of 2005, and “their renewal is stuck in an election-year standoff.” Even if Congress does take action before leaving town, it may be too late for the breaks to make it onto the IRS tax forms.
The fact that his fundraiser for her was going to be closed to the media already suggested that perhaps she didn't want to appear in public with him. But Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) wound up skipping her Bush-headlined fundraiser in Ohio altogether yesterday. As reported here yesterday afternoon, Pryce told NBC's Viqueira that she had to "stand [Bush] up" or else her Democratic opponent "will make mincemeat out of me if I don't" vote on the NSA bill. Her absence seemed to come as a surprise to the White House. Pryce spokesman Rob Nichols later told NBC's Rosiland Jordan that Pryce made the decision to stay on the Hill to vote on the NSA bill because with every Democrat voting against it (he said), Pryce felt her vote was needed to ensure its passage. Nichols also tried to suggest that Pryce isn't worried about whether her opponent might try to make hay out of her decision to stay in Washington because she was doing her job and wasn't trying to hide from anyone.
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USA Today says most members of Congress seeking higher office this year are having trouble because of their ties to Washington and, if they're Republican, to President Bush.
One of the overlooked but potentially competitive Senate races this cycle is in ARIZONA, where incumbent Jon Kyl (R) leads challenger Jim Pederson (D) by just single digits, according to some recent polls. Pederson, in Washington yesterday, briefly chatted with First Read about his race. On how he is withstanding charges from Kyl's camp that his support of the Senate immigration bill is supporting "amnesty:" "I've got to believe we're smarter than that, to withstand buzzwords like that... Usually the tough talkers have something to hide." And in this case, he says, it's Congress' failure to do anything on immigration. And on Kyl using popular Sen. John McCain in his TV ads: "Maybe we should point out the differences between John McCain and Jon Kyl" -- on global warming, immigration, stem cells, and the budget deficit.
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So far, Warner has been one of the few potential Democratic oh-eighters who hasn't stumped for Connecticut Senate nominee Ned Lamont (D) after his primary victory in August (although Warner did put out a statement after Lamont won and wrote him a check). But yesterday, Warner's PAC sent out an e-mail entitled "Washington Needs Ned Lamont." The e-mail praised Lamont's entrepreneurial approach to politics ("That's the approach we took in Virginia -- where we reformed the way government does business to achieve long term savings, and reformed our tax code") and his call for a withdrawal from Iraq ("I agree that we need a plan to get out of Iraq... The current Republican leadership isn't making us safer").
With an easy cruise to re-election ahead of her, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) said yesterday she'll campaign for other candidates in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Florida in the last weeks before the election, reports the AP.
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From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
President Bush ratcheted up his rhetoric against Democrats at his fundraiser for Alabama Gov. Bob Riley in Birmingham today, in that he actually called the Democratic party "the party of cut and run." Until now, Bush had refrained from using this GOP catch-phrase which oversimplifies the Democratic position on the war in Iraq (particularly since Republicans also like to point out how Democrats don't have a unified position on the war). Bush has, up until now, made a point of saying he doesn't question their patriotism. Democrats, for their part, have been stepping up their charge that Bush and the GOP want to "stay the course" in Iraq.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate is expected to pass the compromise bill on detainee trials and treatment within the next half-hour or so...
From NBC's Rosiland Jordan
White House spokesperson Emily Lawrimore says of Rep. Deborah Pryce's now anticipated absence from her own fundraiser with the President in Ohio later today, "As Congress concludes its legislative session, President Bush understands that Representative Pryce has a responsibility to stay in Washington to vote on important legislation that will strengthen our national security."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
It's not totally unheard of for a member of Congress to have to skip his or her own fundraiser, even one with a high-profile guest, because of votes on the floor. Even so, it's notable that Rep. Deborah Pryce says she'll have to miss her own fundraiser with President Bush in New Albany, OH later today because she has to stick around the Hill and vote on the NSA warrantless surveillance bill. She said she has to "stand [Bush] up" or else her Democratic opponent "will make mincemeat out of me if I don't " vote on the NSA bill. Pryce is facing the toughest re-election campaign of her tenure due to the particularly bad climate for Republicans in Ohio, and her event with Bush was already scheduled to be closed to the media.
Her absence may come as a surprise to the White House, at least judging from spokesman Tony Snow's comments to the traveling press earlier today, in which he said the event is expected "to raise $500,000 for the reelection campaign and Ohio Victory 2006, which is a state party get out of the vote effort. Approximately 300 attendees." No mention of Pryce having to skip it.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty days out... President Bush meets with the Senate GOP Conference this morning to talk about "shared priorities" and congratulate the lawmakers on this past session. Chances are he'll urge them to pass his two legislative priorities, the NSA warrantless surveillance bill and the detainee trial and treatment bill. The latter was passed by the House yesterday and is expected to get the Senate's approval today, but the former may be stalled until a lame-duck session, at least. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Vice President Cheney will join Bush at the meeting. Meanwhile, the politics of disclosure remains a running theme with the Bush White House, and not just with the National Intelligence Estimate, which they're declining to release in full.
After his meeting on the Hill today, Bush visits Alabama for a couple of events that might not seem quite so urgent now as they once did: a briefing on energy issues, followed by a statement, and a fundraiser for GOP Gov. Bob Riley, whom analysts expect to win re-election fairly easily. The Riley fundraiser takes place at a convention complex in Birmingham and is open to the media. Riley campaign spokesman Josh Blades tells First Read that they expect anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 people to attend, but won't offer an estimate of how much they'll raise.
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Bush played peacemaker over dinner last night with Presidents Karzai and Musharraf. The Washington Times says things appeared tense when the three leaders faced the press. "More than two hours after the dinner was scheduled to end, the White House said the three leaders had shared their views... But when asked by reporters how long the dinner had lasted, White House spokesman Nicole Guillemart would not say."
The "cherry-picking" debate continues over the NIE as the White House yesterday refused to release the rest of it, "saying that doing so would jeopardize the lives of agents who gathered the information. Press secretary Tony Snow said releasing the full report... would also risk the nation's ability to keep secret its U.S. intelligence-gathering methods and 'compromise the independence' of those charged with analyzing intelligence."
The New York Times says the release of the NIE “has threatened” the White House’s plans to seize on national security this week. “If anything this week, the back-and-forth between the parties - on the intelligence report, on the bills and on the war itself - seemed to produce at best a muddled result, rather than the sharp contrast that the White House had sought.”
A new congressional report says the United States is spending nearly $2 billion a week in Iraq, which is "twice as much as in the first year of the conflict three years ago and 20 percent more than last year," reports the Boston Globe. Per the report, "a major factor in the growth of war spending is the result of a dramatic rise in 'investment costs,' or spending needed to sustain a long-term deployment of American troops."
The Washington Post says of the House vote to approve the detainee legislation yesterday, "Republicans hope to campaign on the bill as proof of their party's tough stand against terrorists. Many congressional Democrats decided to swallow their misgivings and vote for the bill to avoid being portrayed as less than vigilant against suspects captured in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere."
The part of the bill that "worries advocates" most is the "one stating that 'no court, justice, or judge shall have jurisdiction to hear or consider an application for a writ of habeas corpus filed by or on behalf of an alien detained by the United States who has been determined by the United States to have been properly detained as an enemy combatant or is awaiting such determination,'" writes the Boston Globe.
The Chicago Tribune is the latest to write how former President Clinton’s “white-hot, finger-wagging interview” on FOX has thrust him into the midterm elections, “just as the Republicans appeared to be erasing some healthy Democratic advantages. For some Democrats, that's just what they would like to see... How far Clinton might be able to carry his party, however, is an open question.”
Sen. John Kerry (D) gives a speech on national security at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies this morning. Per his office, he'll talk about "the need to redeploy from Iraq, refocus on Afghanistan, and... how central America’s moral authority is to winning the war on terror. Within that context, Kerry will discuss the Senate's debate on torture, arguing that 'there can be no compromise on torture, it is not who we are as a country' and will say that the compromise bill before the Senate does not go far enough when it comes to protecting American troops."
Democrats touted their military veteran House candidates yesterday. The AP notes that most of them don't have a real shot at winning, while the party counters that all they need is a few.
Leading with embattled Rep. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, the Financial Times looks at how moderate Republicans are an increasingly endangered breed in Congress. Losses by Johnson and her like-minded colleagues in the Northeast and elsewhere could cause "an ideological shift akin to the decline of the Democratic party in the south."
Former Sen. John Danforth (R), who's promoting a new book, is telling audiences that the "potency of the Christian right in the Republican Party is limited" and "that the political center has a future." An ordained Episcopal priest, Danforth in his book "describes religion as a divisive force in the United States today and accuses the religious right and its political supporters of creating a sectarian party." His critics note that he served in the Senate when Democrats held the majority.
House Democrats may have hoped to put a lid on leadership contests until after they see whether they're going to be in the majority next year, but the campaign for majority leader continues, and The Hill reports that liberal members "are not lining up behind Rep. Jack Murtha’s (D-Pa.) leadership candidacy in the numbers he had hoped despite his outspoken stance against the Iraq war."
Six years after the Florida recount, critics will argue at a House hearing today that the shift to electronic voting machines has actually increased the likelihood of another debacle, NBC's Chip Reid reports. Millions of Americans will use the machines in November for the first time, and critics say they want a paper trail, at the very least. Supporters of electronic voting say the machines are a vast improvement over hanging chads.
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The New York Times front-pages that Democrats now think a Senate takeover is realistic. But for that to happen, they have to hang onto New Jersey, which looks like a tougher challenge than it was two months ago.
Stuart Rothenberg suggests that some races Democrats are touting as close and competitive may not turn out to be that close, in reality, with early solidification of the Democratic vote just making them appear that way.
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NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams' interview with Elizabeth Edwards will air tonight on Nightly and tomorrow morning on TODAY.
The Republican National Committee has chosen to hold their 2008 convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, leaving Democrats, who were also considering the Twin Cities, to choose between New York and Denver. RNC co-chair Jo Ann Davidson yesterday rejected the idea that their surprise early announcement was really about laying claim to the Twin Cities before Democrats could, but the other cities on the RNC's list all had flaws. The party is probably hoping to give GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty a boost in his tight re-election race, as well as send a message about the importance they place on the Midwest. Democrats could send a similar message about the Mountain West by selecting Denver. Indeed, Colorado seems poised to give them a new governorship and a new House seat to tout in November. Or, they could fuel speculation about a (Hillary) Clinton presidential bid by choosing New York, which also will have a Democratic governor in Eliot Spitzer by 2008.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
In 1992, more than two dozen women -- most of them Democrats -- were newly elected to the House and Senate. That feat led to scores of news articles dubbing the election as the "Year of the Woman." This year, Emily's List, the Democratic group that promotes pro-choice female candidates, is arguing that the 14 female Democrats who are running for some of the most vulnerable GOP-held House seats in the country could be one of the keys to whether Democrats net the 15 seats needed to take back control of Congress. And this morning, Emily's List released polls suggesting that five of these candidates are in solid position to win their races.
Per these polls, Gabrielle Giffords (D) is leading Randy Graf (R), 54%-29%, in Arizona; Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D) is tied, 41%-41%, with Peter Roskam (R) in Illinois; Patty Wetterling (D) is down three points (but within the margin of error) to Michele Bachmann (R) in Minnesota; Darcy Burner (D) is nearly even with Rep. Dave Reichert (R) in Washington; and the same is true for Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in her race against Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). Emily's List president Ellen Malcolm said in a conference call that these polls were taken after September 11, when national surveys began to show an uptick in President Bush's approval rating. While Bush might be experiencing a bump, she noted, "it is not helping these [Republican] candidates. They are not moving up."
Although not disputing the poll numbers, House GOP campaign committee spokesman Carl Forti questions how many of these candidates will win in November. "I'm sure Emily's List will have the same kind of success with their candidates that they had in 2004," he tells First Read, referring to the Democrats' numerous losses that year.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
In announcing today, per the AP, that Minneapolis-St. Paul would be the site of their 2008 convention, Republicans certainly beat Democrats to the punch. The surprise of the announcement was more with the timing, not the locale. According to timetables laid out by both parties, Democrats were supposed to announce their convention first, by early next year. But with the Twin Cities arguably being the GOP's most desirable choice out of a short list that included New York (which was their site in 2004), Tampa (with the possibility of hurricanes in the summer), and Cleveland (a Democratic-friendly city), Republicans decided to stake their claim to the city now before Democrats did. Indeed, Democrats also had Minneapolis-St. Paul on their own short list, in addition to Denver and New York.
Today's announcement might also give a boost to Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who finds himself in a competitive contest for re-election this fall. While the selection of convention sites usually creates speculation about how it might impact potential presidential candidates -- example: John Kerry and Boston in 2004 -- the Twin Cities pick could help Pawlenty convince Minnesota voters that he can still deliver for the state.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
White House press secretary Tony Snow today discussed his new role as a fundraiser for GOP candidates and acknowledged he knows of no other press secretary from either party who has played that kind of political role raising money while also serving the public. These events will include closed fundraisers where the media -- and by extension, the public -- will not be informed of what he says to donors. Snow says this unusual dual role was discussed at great length with White House Counsel Harriet Miers and carries the president's approval.
Snow also says he is aware of the ethical issues and acknowledged that it's close to the line of what is appropriate for a public official. He claims his speeches will be "boring" and "not red meat" and that he will not be looking to pick political fights. He added he was asked to headline these events "months ago" and that he will be utilized by the party in his home state of Ohio -- but beyond that as well. He will do an event that is closed this evening. Another event Snow says he will do is for Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) of Ohio, who made headlines late last year when she suggested Marines don't cut and run when criticizing Rep. John Murtha (D).
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty-one days until election day... Declassified portions of the National Intelligence Estimate label the Iraq war as a "cause célèbre" but give the Administration some means to counter Democrats' attacks. Iraq and the war on terror remain in the spotlight, between the NIE, President Bush's working dinner with his counterparts from Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the new schedule addition of another presidential address for Friday. Yesterday morning, the White House announced that Bush will give another speech on the war on terror before another military audience, the Reserve Officers Association.
In addition to having favorable portions of the NIE to tout, the White House must be hoping to claim victory on Friday on a raft of security-related spending bills and legislation passed by a departing GOP-run Congress. But while the detainee trial and treatment bill seems likely to pass, the fate of legislation reaffirming the NSA warrantless surveillance program remains in flux; NBC's Mike Viqueira and Ken Strickland advise that final passage before Congress leaves town is unlikely. Congress may get to it in a lame-duck session -- or they may not. Also by Friday, the Administration's campaign to bolster public support for the unpopular war in Iraq by casting it as central to the WOT will be just shy of a month old.
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USA Today says that while the NIE paints a picture of a militant Islamic movement that may be spreading too quickly for the United States and its allies to keep up, "it also echoes President Bush's insistence on succeeding in Iraq."
But, per the New York Times, “nowhere in the assessment is any evidence to support Mr. Bush’s confident-sounding assertion this month in Atlanta that ‘America is winning the war on terror.’”
A Los Angeles Times analysis: “The escalating debate over national security reflects the belief among strategists in both parties that the terrorism issue works to their benefit. The question is how voters will interpret each side's arguments.”
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The House GOP leadership will brief the media this morning after their final closed-door conference meeting of the session. Majority Leader John Boehner does MSNBC's Hardball at 5:00 pm. The Democratic leadership will hold a press conference to slam the "rubber-stamp" Republican Congress.
The Los Angeles Times writes that the Senate might not be able to pass a bill -- already approved by the House -- that would make it a crime for someone to avoid parental consent laws by taking a minor to another state to have an abortion. “That would leave Republicans with few trophies to show their socially conservative base as they try to motivate voters in the final six weeks of the fiercely contested 2006 campaign.”
"House Republican leaders yesterday sought to invigorate their conservative base with election-year legislation aimed at protecting both the religious freedom of municipalities and a parent's role in a minor's abortion decision," reports the Washington Times. "The House passed a revised parental-notification bill and legislation limiting legal damages against cities and towns that lose lawsuits for violating the Constitution's ban on the establishment of religion."
The Wall Street Journal reports that an "array of former members of Congress and officials from Republican administrations dating to the 1970s" are saying they'd prefer to see Republicans lose the majority. Three reasons why: "Fiscal hawks are furious about the growth of the federal government. Conservative lawyers... are upset that Congress allowed President Bush to claim expansive powers to eavesdrop on American citizens and detain suspected militants without trial. Others say the war in Iraq is a costly diversion from the war on terror."
Hill Democrats, including presidential contenders and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd and House caucus chair Jim Clyburn, will hold a press conference today to blast the voter ID bill as a potential barrier to minority voting. Republicans have pushed the bill as a border security measure.
Three Senate Democrats, the New York Times says, introduced legislation yesterday that would reimburse states for printing paper ballots in case there are problems with electronic voting machines. “The proposal is a response to grass-roots pressures and growing concern by local and state officials about touch-screen machines. An estimated 40 percent of voters will use those machines in the election.”
MySpace.com is launching a voter-registration drive targeting young people.
In a two-parter, USA Today analyzes Census data and finds that "House districts held by Republicans are full of married people. Democratic districts are stacked with people who have never married... Most serious Democratic challenges this fall are in Republican-controlled House districts that have lower marriage rates." A second story says Democratic districts also contain fewer children than GOP districts, and that this "'fertility gap' is crucial to understanding the differences between liberals and conservatives... These childbearing patterns shape divisions over issues such as welfare, education and child tax credits."
The New York Times says that Democrats and Republicans began running at least 30 new campaign ads yesterday in House and Senate contests -- and just three of them were positive. “The result of the dueling accusations has been what both sides described on Tuesday as the most toxic midterm campaign environment in memory.” (But don’t we always say that?)
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The Washington Post uses Laura Bush's appearance for House candidate Joy Padgett (R) in Ohio yesterday to illustrate how Padgett has been hamstrung in her effort to replace retiring Rep. Bob Ney (R) by all the scandals plaguing Ney and other state Republicans, leaving Padgett with few high-profile party figures who can stump for her and hurting her chances of hanging onto an otherwise GOP-leaning seat.
Today, the parties involved in the CIA leak case against former Vice President Cheney chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby will face off in court over which classified documents Libby will be allowed to use to defend himself against charges of perjury and obstruction at his trial in January, per NBC's Joel Seidman. Libby's attorneys will battle with special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald before Judge Reggie Walton in the first of several closed hearings on the topic. Fitzgerald wants to limit the use of secret documents, believing that extensive use of classified materials at trial may in fact jeopardize national security and sink his case, Seidman says. He has already agreed that Libby should be able to use his own White House notes. But in order for Libby to make his case to a jury, he says he must rely on the daily morning briefings he and Cheney received from the CIA, which are classified. His trial is four months away; jury selection is scheduled to begin on January 17.
After the midterms but in time for the presidential election, the US Supreme Court will decide whether states can make labor unions ask members for permission before using their dues for political activities.
The cover story of the latest Atlantic Monthly examines how Sen. Hillary Clinton -- who came to Washington in the 1990s as an insurgent -- has turned herself into the consummate Washington player. “The story of Clinton’s Senate career mirrors that of her political life generally: a pattern of ambition, failure, study, and advancement… But it also points up her core liabilities as she prepares to move from the New York stage and back to the national one. Maybe one way to frame the question is this: Can a woman who has made herself small enough for the Senate be big enough for the country?”
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From NBC's Libby Leist and Ken Strickland
One day after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the New York Post that some of former President Clinton's assertions in his Sunday FOX interview were "flatly false," Rice spokesman Sean McCormack sought to downplay any "Rice v. Clinton" stories. McCormack told reporters that Rice was not trying to make it a "personal issue" and that she "was merely answering some questions that were put to her in one of a number of different interviews she had scheduled yesterday."
McCormack said Rice believes that both President Clinton and Bush tried to fight al Qaeda, but "those efforts were clearly not enough," and that the government under both before September 11 was not organized to "fight the war that we're fighting now." As for any possible motives behind Clinton's defense of his efforts and his attack on the Bush Administration, McCormack said the reporters should ask those who were involved, but that there was "clearly... a lot of emotion in that interview."
At a news conference today about the NIE, Sen. Hillary Clinton defended her husband's heated interview, saying he "did a great job in demonstrating that Democrats are not going to take these attacks." And she took at swing at the Administration: "I'm certain that if my husband and his national security team had been shown a classified report entitled 'Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States,' he would have taken it more seriously that history suggests it was taken by our current president and his national security team."
From NBC's Jennifer Colby
In six weeks, South Dakota voters will have the opportunity to decide whether an abortion ban, passed in the state earlier this year, should be overturned or upheld. The South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families ran a grassroots campaign to collect enough signatures to get the referendum on the November ballot. In a press briefing today, the group said the outcome of the vote will have a national impact and will determine if 14 other states considering similar bans will continue their efforts. "[The ban] awoke a sleeping giant," Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, said in the briefing. "Until people have lost something, which in this case is a fundamental right, they aren’t engaged. This sent the message out. The public doesn’t want this, they won’t allow it."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
President Bush has called for the declassification of the National Intelligence Estimate to take place "as quickly as possible." The "key judgments" portion will be released.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Even though political analysts are predicting the same outcome, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) told a group of Washington political reporters this morning that Democrats will hold control of a majority of governorships after the November elections (Republicans currently have a 28-22 edge). Although such a feat is largely symbolic, Richardson, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, said it would be "a barometer of a political sea change" taking place in the country. And he suggested it could usher in a host of policy changes in the states. "While the Congress is locked in gridlock ... the states are incubators for change."
Richardson added, "Voters are seeing governors as the real architects of fiscal responsibility" -- which was somewhat of a self-serving statement given that he is expected to run for president in 2008, and will obviously tout that kind of message in a White House bid. Asked about his presidential ambitions, Richardson replied, "I will make a decision early next year." Also asked about the possibility of competing against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, he said, "My view is that the party needs a spirited primary. I think we need a debate about the heart and soul of the party."
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The White House indicates that conversations are taking place about the possibility of declassifying the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate. The discussion seems to center on the Administration's view that a characterization of one paragraph is not enough context for a report containing "nine key judgments."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Six weeks until election day... President Bush's Iraq-is-central-to-the-war-on-terror events today are a meeting with President Karzai of Afghanistan and a joint press availability. Vice President Cheney yesterday touted Afghanistan as a "a rising nation -- with a democratically-elected government, a market economy, and millions of children going to school for the first time." Democrats argue that the Administration has paid too little attention to Afghanistan compared to Iraq -- "one-seventh" the attention, as former President Clinton said -- and that this has made the United States less safe.
Bush also raises money at another closed-press fundraiser at another private home, this time in Washington, for GOP efforts in Arkansas, Iowa and Wisconsin. Bush raised an estimated $1.7 million at his two events on the road yesterday. The White House pool reporter traveling with him yesterday sought a comment from Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine (R), one of the beneficiaries of Bush's events. "'I appreciate the president coming in,’ the senator said. 'He raised a lot of money. It’s always good to be with the president.’ Asked if it does him any good to appear with Mr. Bush, the senator repeated himself: 'It’s always good to be with the president.'"
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Former US Ambassador to Iraq turned National Intelligence Director John Negroponte addressed the NIE in a speech last night, arguing that "the jihad in Iraq is shaping a new generation of terrorist operatives, but rejected assertions, stemming from a leaked intelligence estimate, that the United States is at a greater risk of attack than it was in 2001," per the AP. Also yesterday, the bipartisan leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee urged President Bush to declassify the NIE so the public can decide on its contents for themselves.
Senate Armed Services ranking member Carl Levin and Sens. Jack Reed and Hillary Clinton will hold a press conference today "to discuss Administration failures in Iraq and the war on terrorism" in the wake of the reporting on the NIE, per the press release.
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"Home sales continued to decline last month, and the nation's median home price dropped for the first time in more than a decade... If their homes are worth less, consumers may feel less wealthy and therefore spend less on goods and services, a worrisome trend for the broader economy," says the Wall Street Journal.
President Bush touted his tax cuts at a tool manufacturing plant in Cincinnati yesterday, reviving his argument that the tax cuts have boosted the economy and tying them to the health of small businesses. "Some have advocated that we ought to raise taxes on individuals, which would take money out of the pockets of this company. If you take money out of the treasury of this company it means it's less likely somebody is going to find work... You hear people say, well, we're not going to extend the tax cuts -- that means they're going to raise taxes on the small business, just like this one. And it's bad economic policy and it will be bad for our country."
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The chief sponsors of the Senate's comprehensive immigration-reform bill, which Bush supports but which has been long stalled by opposition in the House, hold a press conference today with religious leaders to call for passage of the bill. While House Republicans call the Senate bill "Reid-Kennedy," the bill is the McCain-Kennedy bill. The White House has already acknowledged that they don't expect progress to be made on the Senate legislation anytime soon.
The Washington Post says Bush's closed-door events yesterday "underscored both his continued ability to attract donations and his continued unpopularity with much of the public."
The New York Times: “Republicans do not expect to be riding President Bush’s record to re-election this fall. But they are trying to ride his gravy train - as quietly as possible.”
Most of Connecticut's high-profile GOP lawmakers were absent from Bush's event yesterday, and because the event was closed-press, "there were no public opportunities Monday for photographs of Bush with candidates," says the Hartford Courant. Also: "Both privately and in front of GOP supporters at the fundraiser, Bush told [endangered moderate GOP Rep. Chris] Shays that he needs to turn up the political heat on Diane Farrell, his Democratic opponent."
