October 2006 - Posts
From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
"Who would have thought that Mankato, MN would be the center of the political universe?" asked an amused Bryan Anderson, the campaign spokesman for Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R), who is locked in a tough re-election fight against Democrat Tim Walz.
"Come join Tim Walz in welcoming Senator Kerry to Minnesota's First District!" says the Walz release. The suddenly much more newsworthy Kerry is the guest star at a Walz rally in Mankato at 12 noon Wednesday. Walz, a harsh critic of the Iraq war, has repeatedly invoked his own service in the Army National Guard as a candidate credential.
The Kerry-Walz rally will come just an hour after Sen. John McCain -- fiercely critical of Kerry's comment about poor academic performers ending up in uniform in Iraq --appears in Mankato to whip up support for the GOP ticket headed by Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
Walz campaign spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery said Walz is on the road in the far western part of the district and has not yet commented on the Kerry furor. At this hour, the Kerry event is still scheduled to proceed as planned.
From NBC's Mark Murray
President Bush will be the next Republican to weigh in on Kerry's comments when speaks at a rally for Georgia congressional candidate Mac Collins (R) later this afternoon. The White House just released advance excerpts of Bush's remarks -- which is unusual for this kind of rally, and which seems intended to further stoke this controversy. Per the excerpts, Bush will say: "[Kerry’s] suggestion that the men and women of our military are somehow uneducated is insulting and shameful. Our troops did not enlist because they did not study hard in school or do their homework. The men and women who serve in our all-volunteer Armed Forces are plenty smart and are serving because they are patriots – and Senator Kerry owes them an apology."
What do you think? Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse? Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Mike Viqueira
At a hastily arranged news conference, John Kerry didn't back down from his earlier remarks that those who don't study hard or do well in school could "get stuck in Iraq" (although, as we mention below, a Kerry source explains that the senator was referring to Bush, not to US armed forces). Replying to Sen. John McCain's demand that Kerry issue an apology, Kerry asked why McCain hasn't demanded apologies from the White House, Vice President Dick Cheney, or Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld for the US struggles in Iraq. "What we need to do is debate the real issues," he said. "America is sick and tired of this kind of politics."
But that hasn't stopped Republicans from piling on. Speaker Dennis Hastert -- who's experienced his fair share of controversy from the Foley scandal -- condemned Kerry's comments. "Our soldiers make the ultimate sacrifice in order to protect America, and they deserve nothing less than our utmost respect. I urge Senator Kerry to apologize immediately for these insulting remarks." In addition, GOP Senate candidates Mike Bouchard of Michigan and John Spencer of New York have issued statements criticizing Kerry. Interestingly, however, we haven't Republican candidates in more competitive -- or even the GOP campaign committees -- also jump on Kerry.
What do you think? Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse? Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Huma Zaidi
White House press secretary Tony Snow and Sen. John Kerry (D) are engaged in a war of words over comments Kerry made at a campaign event in Los Angeles yesterday for California gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides. Both might have a little base-politicking in mind, Snow for 2006 and Kerry for 2008.
Kerry, who was speaking to a group of students, warned them that those who don't study hard or do well in school could "get stuck in Iraq." At today's White House press briefing, Snow said Kerry should apologize to US troops and their families for insinuating that those who serve in the military are not smart. "What Senator Kerry ought to do first is apologize to the troops," Snow said. "This is an absolute insult. And I'm a little astonished that he didn't figure it out already." Snow was clearly prepped and probably looking to fire up the Republican faithful with attacks on Kerry, one of their favorite punching bags.
CONTINUED >>
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
One week out... The final pre-election NBC/Wall Street Journal poll will be released tonight on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Per the poll, President Bush's job approval rating on the economy is 46%, up from 44% two weeks ago and continuing its upward trend since September -- presumably due to lower gas prices, a booming stock market, and the White House's intense focus on the economy over the past few weeks. The rest of the poll will be released at 6:30 pm ET.
CNBC dissects that economic job-approval rating and weighs in on what the looming midterm elections could mean for business and the economy with a day-long series of reports today. Scheduled guests include possible presidential contenders Sen. Barack Obama (D), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R), and Gov. Mitt Romney (R); House campaign committee chairs Tom Reynolds (R) and Rahm Emanuel (D); Senate Finance Committee chair Charles Grassley; Sens. Mike DeWine (R) and Ted Kennedy (D); and endangered Rep. Steve Chabot (R) of Ohio and his Democratic opponent John Cranley. Also in the spotlight: what Wall Street firms, investment gurus and big CEOs are saying about the state of the economy and how they expect the election to turn out.
CONTINUED >>
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has updated its ratings, calling 12 GOP-held seats more vulnerable now than they had been, including moving eight seats to the toss-up column.
"In the House, GOP strategists privately concede that a half-dozen to 10 seats are already lost," Roll Call reports. "But they say the other competitive two- to three-dozen races are close - even closer than publicly available polls suggest in some cases. Democrats, meanwhile, are working to tamp down expectations for the size of the party’s gains in the House, saying that if they do pick up the minimum 15 seats needed..., the final tally could be much smaller than is currently being forecast by most public polling and pundits."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes that at yesterday’s rally in Texas, Bush was greeted like a man "whose public approval ratings are 73 percent, not 37 percent… The back-to-back rallies created just the image White House strategists are seeking for the president in the waning days of the campaign: that of a confident leader, surrounded by adoring supporters.”
The Washington Times notices Bush suddenly talking about judicial nominees, border security, and a gay-marriage ban yesterday -- "themes that have been absent for most of the election season, but which he is now using to energize the party's base... White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said themes were added because Mr. Bush is speaking to different audiences at the rallies and said this stump speech will carry Mr. Bush through Election Day."
CONTINUED >>
"November marks the five-year anniversary of the end of the last recession and the beginning of the latest U.S. economic expansion," notes USA Today. "But whether the USA will have another five years of economic growth without sliding into recession - at least matching the record 10-year expansion that ended in 2001 - is an issue that sharply divides economists."
Gas prices are up slightly this week for the first time since early August.
Bloomberg points out that almost nowhere do candidates seem to be talking about the looming alternative minimum tax problem, which will "hit more than 20 million households next year, some with incomes as low as $50,000... Most candidates are avoiding the subject because the cost of stopping the tax increase would obstruct key elements of their agendas... Those candidates who do mention the minimum tax offer few specifics for fixing it."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today reports that Arab governments "are looking for change in U.S. policy in the Middle East after the midterm elections, hoping a politically weakened President Bush will talk with Iran and Syria, show greater interest in the Palestinians and find a way out of the crisis in Iraq... Non-democratic but pro-U.S. governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan now largely shrug off the administration's campaign for strong steps toward democracy."
Before leaving for Georgia today, Bush meets with the special envoy for Sudan. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
The Washington Times says "a new breed of politician has emerged: former Republicans challenging Republican incumbents." Among them: Virginia Senate nominee Jim Webb and a handful of now-Democratic House candidates who could very well win.
Roll Call reports that "House Republican leaders are considering postponing the scheduled Nov. 15 leadership contests" if they lose the majority. "There is no contingency date set, aides said, but Republican Conference rules do dictate that elections must be held by Dec. 20."
CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal looks at Democratic efforts to microtarget. "Democrats are playing catch-up to Republicans, whose use of microtargeting in 2004 energized millions of new voters who backed President Bush... Until recently, Democrats, who had long relied on the old get-out-the-vote muscle of organized labor, were skeptical of building voter databases."
This Saturday, the AFL-CIO says it will kick off its "Final Four" get-out-the-vote blitz -- in which 100,000 union volunteers will knock on doors, work the phones, and reach out to fellow union members at the worksite during the final four days of the election.
CONTINUED >>
A Roll Call editorial notes that five states whose polls close by 8:00 pm ET -- Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- "have been placed by the nonpartisan group electionline.org on a list of 10 'states to watch.' In these states, new voting machines, voter identification requirements, out-of-date voter registration lists or sheer numbers of voters may cause trouble."
Top US voting machine manufacturer Smartmatic and subsidiary Sequoia Voting Systems are being investigated by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, at Smartmatic's request, for possibly problematic ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. "A breakdown in the use of Sequoia voting machines in the March primary in Chicago gave rise to questions about Smartmatic's corporate structure," says the Washington Post.
"The government has 30 days to issue its first ruling on whether the Sequoia purchase compromises U.S. national security by giving a foreign government undue influence on U.S. elections. The investigation can be extended by another 45 days, if a U.S. government agency requests it," reports the Miami Herald.
In CALIFORNIA, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and challenger Phil Angelides (D) have both worn their “eco-credentials on their sleeves,” per the San Francisco Chronicle. “Being a green candidate in California is almost a necessity, as polls show overwhelming majorities favor things like banning offshore oil drilling and requiring automakers to build cleaner-burning cars.”
Some post-election reading to look forward to: The Washington Post leads its Style section profile of FLORIDA GOP Senate nominee Katherine Harris with the news that she's "writing a tell-all about the many people who have wronged her. This includes, but is not necessarily limited to: the Republican leaders who didn't want her to run, the press that has covered her troubled campaign, and the many staffers who have quit her employ, whom she accuses of colluding with her opponent. She is vague about what, precisely, makes her a victim, but she says she has it all documented."
CONTINUED >>
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
The first wave election of the 24-7 news era is now just eight days away. Cable and the Internet are flooded with coverage and forecasts, and Democrats hold wide advantages on certain polling measures that have proved predictive in the past. But there's no surefire way to extrapolate from the polls just how big the wave is going to be. For once, the Bush White House is setting expectations that can safely be considered their best-case scenario: even narrower GOP majorities in the House and Senate. At the other end of the spectrum, analysts figure that gerrymandering and a Republican fundraising and GOTV advantages would cap possible Democratic gains in the House at around 35-40 seats. In the Senate, the floor for Democrats appears to be four seats and the pool of competitive races seems small enough to limit their gains to a maximum of seven.
The latest Newsweek poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 53%-39% among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot test. President Bush's job approval rating is 37% among registered voters. Late to the stump (his first big rally of the cycle was on Saturday), Bush has a fairly light travel schedule this week, at least as of today. Campaigning against terrorism and taxes, he will rally support for: two challengers to House Democrats in Georgia; the candidate seeking to win resigned Rep. Tom DeLay's seat; Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, who has Abramoff issues; and a couple of candidates in Nevada who also have ethical issues. In one break for Republicans on the scandal front, the House Ethics Committee is not expected to release a report on the Foley probe before election day.
CONTINUED >>
One of the more striking things about this election cycle is just how few Democratic seats are in play. The party stands a decent chance of keeping every one of their House seats. That said, Bush travels to Georgia today and tomorrow to help his party try to topple two vulnerable Democrats. Today he's in Statesboro, GA for a rally with former Rep. Max Burns (R), who's challenging incumbent John Barrow (D). After that, Bush heads to former Rep. Tom DeLay's hometown of Sugar Land, TX to attend a rally for write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R), who's waging an uphill battle for DeLay's seat. On Tuesday, Bush returns to Georgia for a rally for former Rep. Mac Collins (R), who's taking on Rep. Jim Marshall (D). Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue and Sens. Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson will attend.
One senior member of the political press corps e-mailed First Read that Bush's shrinking travel schedule reminded him of the closing days of the 1992 presidential campaign. "I was with Bush the elder and we kept going back to the same handful of places over and over... because they were the only places he could still get a crowd."
CONTINUED >>
As we wrote above, the GOP's sharp attacks on the Democratic candidates for the Tennessee and Virginia Senate seats will be remembered as a pair of efforts to push Southern voters' buttons on race and values. First Read asked strategists familiar with the internal polling on both sides what they're seeing to indicate whether or not these attacks have been effective.
"In both cases, voters will have a choice," e-mailed Pete Brodnitz, who polls for both Ford and Virginia nominee Jim Webb. "Do they vote for the change that they clearly would like to see in the direction of the country, or are they more concerned that the Democrat is a risky choice because of the GOP attacks. In both states," he asserts, "the GOP has over-reached with personal attacks that may or may not help mobilize the GOP candidate's base at the expense of their ability to reach out to Independents and moderates who are turned off by the GOP attempts at character assassination. In both cases, the Republican message is also focused on sex and I think a lot of voters are going to be offended... when they are watching television with their children..."
CONTINUED >>
The White House continues to emphasize that progress is being made toward a transfer of responsibility to Iraqi security forces, despite troublesome comments from Prime Minister Maliki. The US death toll in Iraq this month has hit 100, "making the month the fourth-deadliest for the US military since the 2003 invasion," per the Financial Times.
The court trying Saddam Hussein now might delay its verdict by a few days, a move that would shift it past the midterm elections. “The court had been due to deliver a verdict on Nov. 5.”
The Washington Times runs the first of a five-part series previewing life under a Democrat-run House, focusing generally on expected battles over security issues and increased Democratic oversight.
Vice President Cheney gives an interview to CNBC's Larry Kudlow today; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice does Kudlow tomorrow. CNBC's Patti Domm notes that the markets have been shrugging off the war in Iraq. (Voters obviously have not.) This is also a big week for economic data, Domm says. Consumer confidence, auto sales, and chain store sales will be capped off by the October jobs report due out on Friday.
Bloomberg looks at the GOP's problem as they try to get voters to focus on positive developments in the economy: "Middle-class voters... aren't inclined to celebrate upbeat economic statistics... The reason, some analysts say, is the gap between a statistically strong five-year expansion and strapped family budgets... The skeptical mood among such voters has undermined the strategy outlined by" Karl Rove in a May 15 speech in which he "said then that the continued strength of the economy would override the 'sour' national mood created by the Iraq war."
CONTINUED >>
In his Sunday column, Bob Novak wrote that Speaker Dennis Hastert’s friends are urging him “to seek the top Republican post-election leadership position, whether or not the party retains control of the House Nov. 7, so that his long public career does not end marred by the Mark Foley scandal.” Hastert told Sean Hannity yesterday that the GOP will keep its majority and he will run for Speaker again.
The Sunday Washington Post reported, "Based on polling, Republican strategists say a half-dozen seats, including open seats in Colorado, Arizona and Ohio, appear unwinnable. Six other races... are looking dire but not hopeless. Most worrisome, GOP strategists say, is that 20 or more additional Republican incumbents are essentially tied or holding very small leads -- a danger zone for a sitting member of Congress in a tough political environment."
CONTINUED >>
The House Ethics Committee has finished interviewing key witnesses in the Foley probe, but no report is expected before the elections -- not even an interim report. The committee also declined to ask retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe to testify, despite his awareness of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages as early as 2000.
House Majority Leader John Boehner said on ABC yesterday, "'I believe strongly that the speaker - neither the speaker, myself or anyone knew of the sexually explicit instant messages'" sent by Foley to pages. "'If any one of us would have known about this, we would have dragged him out of there by his tie.'"
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times profiles House Minority Leader -- and possible incoming Speaker -- Nancy Pelosi from the perspective of how this national-level pol fits, and doesn't fit her San Francisco district.
CONNECTICUT Sen. Joe Lieberman's independent bid is getting a boost from Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg's political organization, which views itself as the last big independent campaign effort, is pitching in. And Bloomberg is scheduled to endorse Lieberman today. Democratic nominee Ned Lamont is once again trying to go on the offensive against Lieberman on the Iraq war with a new ad featuring former (and possibly future) presidential candidate Wes Clark. In the ad, Clark asserts that "Joe Lieberman introduced the resolution authorizing the war in Iraq. That was a mistake… Re-elect Joe Lieberman? Well, there’s a word for it: mistake.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Gena Fitzgerald
What a week for any viewer watching political ads this week, or netsurfers trying to go to the web to find out what candidates stand for. National polls keep telling us over and over that it’s Iraq that matters most to voters. Apparently the campaigns haven’t gotten that message. The focus this week is sex, sleaze, disabilities, and dirt. What's a voter to do?
Let’s see, we started the week with one of the most unforgettable ads in recent years. Democrat Harold Ford, an African American congressman, is running for Senate in Tennessee against a white Republican named Bob Corker. The ad was paid for by the RNC.
In it, a young blonde actress pretends to have met Ford at a Playboy club and urges Ford to call her. It’s clear from her tone that it isn’t about the 2007 Budget either. The NAACP said the ad "plays to pre-existing prejudices about African American men and white women."
CONTINUED >>
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Eleven days to go... President Bush today looks past election day, meeting with the NATO Secretary General as prep for the NATO summit in Latvia next month. Others in the Administration will contend with a GDP figure showing a much lower rate of growth than expected, unwelcome news amid the Administration's big push to focus voters on a strong US economy. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will appear on CNBC later this morning.
The latest sign of how the once formidable Bush-Cheney campaign team's effectiveness has been curbed by their poll standing is how much their itineraries are starting to blur together. They're also overlapping with the travel schedule of Laura Bush, who remains the White House's universal donor, publicly popular enough to be able to boost even the GOP's most vulnerable candidates.
CONTINUED >>
The White House continues to try to shoot down media accounts of disputes between the Administration and Prime Minister Maliki over the way forward in Iraq. In his own efforts to do so, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ranted at the media yesterday, saying they "ought to just back off" questions about a timetable for US troop withdrawal from Iraq, reports NBC's Courtney Kube. Rumsfeld went on to say, "I wouldn't waste a lot of newsprint trying to find daylight between everybody on this or try to find things that are wrong with it."
Linguist George Lakoff, who has advised Democrats on political language, argues in a New York Times op-ed that Bush’s change in rhetoric on the Iraq war -- by abandoning “stay the course” -- won’t work. “To keep staying the course, given obvious reality, is to get deeper into disaster in Iraq, while not staying the course is to abandon one’s moral authority as a conservative. Either way, the president loses.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post looks at the proliferation of nasty attack ads, including the RNC ad against Democrat Harold Ford in the Tennessee Senate race, which has been pulled but won't quite seem to go away. "While negative campaigning is a tradition in American politics, this year's version in many races has an eccentric shade, filled with allegations of moral bankruptcy and sexual perversion. At the same time, the growth of 'independent expenditures' by national parties and other groups has allowed candidates to distance themselves from distasteful attacks on their opponents." The story notes that "most harsh Democratic attacks have focused on the policies and performance of the GOP majority, trying to link Republicans to Bush, the unpopular war in Iraq and" famous Hill scandals.
The Wall Street Journal reports on how some candidates are trying to break through the barrage of negative ads with emotional spots (like the Michael J. Fox ads) or quirky ones (like Maryland GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele's).
Bloomberg looks at the logistical challenges confronting Republicans in their efforts to retain the seats of resigned Reps. Mark Foley and Tom DeLay. What the article doesn't say is that both districts are Republican-leaning, so if the party loses these seats next month, then presumably they could win them back next cycle.
Leading with House Appropriations chair Jerry Lewis, the Wall Street Journal examines how it has become routine for "House members to accept meals from private interests on official government trips abroad," even though it's against House rules.
CONTINUED >>
Tomorrow, Laura Bush campaigns in New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.
En route from Michigan to Washington last night, Karl Rove appeared in the press area of Air Force One bearing a tray of chocolate-covered caramels that he'd purchased during Bush's earlier stop at a candy store. Per the pool report, "He was asked for his November 7 report. 'Victory, victory, victory,' he said, flashing a two-finger 'V' sign and smiling. Then he said, 'I'm here as the candyman, not the prognosticator.'"
Looking to gin up the base while in Iowa yesterday, Bush commented on the New Jersey gay marriage decision at a fundraiser for House candidate Jeff ("Dave") Lamberti: "Yesterday in New Jersey we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage. I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and I believe... I believe it's a sacred institution and it's critical to the health of our society and the well being of families and it must be defended."
CONTINUED >>
ExxonMobil and Shell scored huge quarterly profits again, but even though some Democratic lawmakers issued written statements expressing outrage, with gas prices so much lower, the public isn't seething like they used to.
A Wall Street Journal analysis shows that "[m]ore than one-quarter of top corporate political donors have stepped up their giving slightly to Democrats, in an apparent effort to hedge their bets... While the percentage of new giving isn't large, it represents unexpected cash for the Democrats in a year when they have managed to stay financially competitive with, or surpass, their Republican adversaries."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today has a bunch of stories about the vote. On early voting: "State officials report that in-person early voting appears up before the elections Nov. 7... Election officials and voting experts say it's unclear whether the jump in early voting reflects a high degree of voter enthusiasm or is an extension of a gradual increase since 1980... In 2004, about 22% of the vote was cast early, either in person or by absentee voting by mail... No early voting totals are available for the last midterm election in 2002."
The paper also rounds up potential issues with new voting equipment and laws. "Three in every 10 voting jurisdictions in the USA are using new equipment, up from 9% in 2004. More than 20 states are using paper trails for the first time, which produce printouts of voters' choices. Dozens of states have new voter registration and identification requirements. About 1.2 million poll workers and tens of thousands of technicians are still being trained to open the polls before daybreak, set up and maintain the machines, and work up to 15-hour shifts."
CONTINUED >>
A new Pew poll shows Democrats with a 50%-39% advantage in the 40 most competitive House races across the country, per McClatchy. “Potentially more troubling for Republicans: They lead only 44 percent to 42 percent in all other Republican-held districts, which went heavily for President Bush in 2004.”
The San Francisco Chronicle says that same-sex marriage bans likely will be approved overwhelmingly in five states -- Idaho, Virginia, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee -- after the New Jersey court ruling this week. Polls show many of these constitutional bans passing, and historically, polls have grossly underestimated the yes-vote of similar bans in other states.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The ad war in Tennessee's toss-up Senate race continues -- with a brand-new TV advertisement by Harold Ford Jr.'s (D) campaign, which directly responds to 1) the Republican National Committee's controversial ad suggesting interracial dating and 2) another RNC ad charging Ford for supporting gay marriage and wanting to "give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren."
The Ford ad begins with an announcer stating: "The ads for Corker attacking Harold Ford? Despicable. Rotten. Lies." And then Ford speaks: "I'm Harold Ford, Jr. ... and now they've attacked my faith ... said I'm for gay marriage when I voted against it ... for giving schoolgirls abortion pills... all of it lies. Here's what I believe... in God, in you, and a new direction."
From NBC's Kevin Corke and Tammy Kupperman
DES MOINES, IA -- President Bush, speaking today at a function here for congressional candidate Jeff Lamberti (R) -- whom he twice referred to as Dave -- just criticized yesterday's court ruling in New Jersey, which said that gay couples are entitled to the same rights as heterosexual couples, but left it to the state legislature to determine whether their union should be called marriage or something else.
"We believe marriage is a fundamental institution of civilization," Bush said. "Yesterday in New Jersey we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage. I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and I believe -- I believe it's a sacred institution, and it's critical to the health of our society and the well being of families, and it must be defended."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
With President Bush signing into law today the authorization for the 700-mile fence along the border, there's some disagreement among Republicans in Congress over just how much it's going to cost. The House Appropriations Committee, whose responsibility it is to count and (especially) spend money, estimates that the fence will cost in the neighborhood of $9 million a mile, which would put the total cost of the barrier at $6.3 billion. They base their estimate on what it had cost to build the existing fence near San Diego.
The House Homeland Security Committee, however, disputes that figure. They say the fence will cost only $2 to 4 billion. So if we call it $3 billion, that puts the per mile charge at $4.3 million. The committee bases this figure on an "internal estimate." Whatever the case, keep in mind that the measure that Bush signed today does not "pay" for anything. It merely "authorizes" -- i.e. gives permission -- for the fence to be built. So far Congress has put down only $1.2 billion in real cash to pay for actual construction.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Twelve days to go... President Bush's day starts off with a ceremonial, politically loaded bill-signing. The Secure Fence Act of 2006 authorizes a 700-mile fence along the Mexican border. Earlier this month, distracted House Republicans missed their chance to tout Bush's signing of the bill that provides a down payment on the fence because it happened in the immediate aftermath of the Mark Foley scandal. Clearly, they're determined not to miss a second chance to promote their work on an issue which has great appeal to the party base.
They're also not missing a chance to motivate their base by firing at House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Speaker Dennis Hastert said yesterday in a written statement about his potential successor, "Pelosi has NEVER visited the border. She claims to understand the needs of those on the front lines but has never visited those agents and offers no solutions." As Republicans across the board attempt to demonize Pelosi, bear in mind that the mid-October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Pelosi was recognized by 57% of those surveyed and of those, 18% had a neutral opinion, 14% viewed her positively, and 25% viewed her negatively. (Mark Foley, on the other hand, was recognized by 83%; 69% viewed him negatively.)
CONTINUED >>
The AP: "The U.S. military on Thursday announced the deaths of five U.S. troops in fighting in Iraq, raising to 96 the number of American forces killed this month... The latest deaths raised to 96 the number of U.S. forces killed in October, the highest toll for any month this year and on course to surpass the October 2005 total of 96. Before that the deadliest months were January 2005, at 107; November 2004 at 137 and April 2004, at 135."
The Washington Post on Bush's press conference yesterday: "Bush made the unusual move of calling a second news conference in as many weeks to address the public concern, and then opened the event with a 16-minute speech, knowing television networks would carry it live." After a reporter pressed Bush on whether or not the United States is winning the war, Bush said yes. "Asked afterward whether Bush meant that the United States is winning in Iraq specifically or in the fight against terrorism, White House press secretary Tony Snow said: 'In Iraq.'"
CONTINUED >>
Ted Van Der Meid testified before the House Ethics Committee yesterday. Probably on the list of important people you've never heard of, Van Der Meid is the potential key to the question of what the Speaker's staff knew about Mark Foley's behavior with House pages and what, if anything, they did with that knowledge, reports NBC's Mike Viqueira. As Counsel to the Speaker and director of floor operations, Van Der Meid has immense power when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the House. His realm includes dominion over the House Clerk, who in turn runs the page program. That's why many on Capitol Hill find it difficult to believe that Jeff Trandahl, who was Clerk at the time of the first allegations about Foley, would not have alerted Van Der Meid. In fact, a source close to Trandahl says that the former Clerk, who testified last week, has said that's just what he did whenever complaints about Foley arose -- he took them to Van Der Meid.
Lawyers for Foley have announced that he "has been an inpatient" at the Sierra Tucson treatment facility in Arizona, NBC's Jim Popkin reports. Popkin notes that since Foley began his 30-day treatment on October 1, he could conceivably be released from the Tucson facility this coming weekend. However, his lawyers' language leaves open the possibility that he may not still be there. The lawyers write that he "has been an inpatient" -- not that he is one currently.
CONTINUED >>
The Republican National Committee's controversial TV ad criticizing Tennessee Senate nominee Harold Ford (D) has come off the air. Per MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Jennifer Yuille, an RNC aide said yesterday that the ad had "run its course," rejecting the suggestion that they pulled the ad because of political pressure. A new ad is being rotated in. The new spot calls Ford "Tennessee's most liberal Congressman. He campaigns in a church, but took cash from Hollywood's top X-rated porn moguls. Ford talks values. But voted to recognize gay marriage. Voted for taxpayer-funded abortions 12 times. And wants to give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren." On Imus this morning, Ford tried to use the controversy over the first ad to cast doubt on the charges in the new one.
Though off the air, the ad still gets front-page treatment in the New York Times: “Critics asserted that the advertisement was a clear effort to play to racial stereotypes and fears, essentially, playing the race card.”
CONTINUED >>
A new Gallup poll for USA Today asks voters to envision life with a Democrat-run Congress. Strong majorities expect "a timetable to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq" and an increase in federal income taxes. Channeling yesterday's First Read, analysts tell the paper that "Democratic leaders would need to take care not to overreach."
Bloomberg talks to Democratic strategists about what they see as "their party's key to victory: Making the election a referendum on [Bush], his supporters and the war in Iraq, rather than about local concerns and individual races between candidates." Democrats aren't offering a "detailed agenda. Even some Republicans think specifics might no longer be needed."
CONTINUED >>
Bush budget director Rob Portman gives the Financial Times an interview in which he says a Democratic takeover of Congress would threaten the US economy because it "would jeopardise efforts to contain government spending, put upward pressure on taxes and undermine America’s ability to negotiate free trade agreements... However, he said he was hopeful that the two parties could come together for a serious attempt to reform Social Security and Medicare after the election, regardless of who won." And he "warned voters against assuming that [Bush] could veto all extra spending proposals."
The Houston Chronicle examines the Republicans’ vaunted GOTV operation. “The election results will show whether the GOP machine is powerful enough to overcome what many polls show to be low public ratings of Bush's performance, the war in Iraq and the performance of Republican majorities in the House and Senate.”
A new e-mail solicitation from RNC chair Ken Mehlman blasts a "Kerry/Kennedy bid for liberal control of Congress."
The New York Times on the gay marriage decision in New Jersey: “The New Jersey court did not go as far as Massachusetts, which in 2003 became the first state to permit gay marriage. Instead, it could be considered the new Vermont, which created civil unions for gay couples in 2000, in the politically, legally and culturally charged world of same-sex marriage.” More: “[B]y issuing a nuanced and complicated 90-page ruling that left observers struggling to declare who won and who lost, the court may have neutralized gay marriage as an issue in the Nov. 7 elections.”
The Chicago Tribune: “After setbacks this year in state courts in New York, Nebraska, Washington and Georgia, gay-marriage advocates greeted Wednesday's decision with relief… Opponents of gay marriage said the New Jersey court had shown the same judicial arrogance as the Vermont and Massachusetts courts.”
USA Today lists the eight states with same-sex marriage bans on the ballot this fall.
The New York Times says several candidates across the country -- both Republican and Democrat -- “are showing signs of strain, uttering words they later wish they could take back, running last-ditch advertisements that push the envelope and taking other actions that are out of the political ordinary… ‘It is definitely the funny season,’ said Ed Rollins, a longtime Republican strategist... 'All these Republicans who thought they were in safe seats have seen their numbers drop dramatically. They are freaked.’”
Campaign ad spending could hit "a record $2 billion in spending this year, $300 million more than in 2004, when there were both congressional and presidential elections," Bloomberg reports. "Republicans, Democrats and outside groups have accelerated spending since" the Foley scandal broke and became the catalyst for an even more competitive election cycle than expected.
Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean rallies with CALIFORNIA gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides in Los Angeles. The latest poll by the Public Policy Institute of California has Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) leading Angelides by 18 points. "Schwarzenegger appears headed for re-election by a landslide -- even though California voters strongly believe Democrats are better suited to handle key issues like the economy, the Iraq war, immigration and the environment."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Next on the list of important people you've never heard of is Ted Van Der Meid, currently behind closed doors at the House Ethics Committee. Van Der Meid is the potential key to the question of what the Speaker's staff knew about Mark Foley's behavior with House pages and what, if anything, they did with that knowledge.
As Counsel to the Speaker and director of floor operations, Van Der Meid has immense power when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the House. His realm includes dominion over the House Clerk, who in turn runs the page program. That's why many on the Hill find it difficult to believe that Jeff Trandahl, who was Clerk at the time of the first allegations about Foley, would not have alerted Van Der Meid. In fact, a source close to Trandahl says that the former Clerk, who testified last week, has said that's just what he did whenever complaints about Foley arose -- he took them to Van Der Meid.
Remember: the Speaker's office asserts that no one on the staff, including Van Der Meid, had any awareness of Foley's conduct -- lewd, "overfriendly," or otherwise -- before the fall of 2005.
It is ironic in the extreme to see Van Der Meid now hauled before Ethics, since he has served as chief counsel to that committee in the past, most notably during the investigation of Newt Gingrich. As one might expect from someone in his position and with his history, there are many in the House -- both at the staff and member levels -- who resent the man and would not mind seeing him take a fall.
From NBC's Jennifer Colby
Sens. Elizabeth Dole and Chuck Schumer, the respective chairs of the GOP and Democratic Senate campaign committees, gave differing views on this year's Senate races at the National Press Club this afternoon. Schumer said the Democratic Party has set records in fundraising this election cycle, and that the money would be used to play offense in traditional Republican states like Tennessee and Virginia. He also used Bush's "cut and run" metaphor to describe GOP incumbents distancing themselves from the administration during their campaigns. "The bottom line is, turning out Democrats to vote this year will be like pouring water downhill," he said. But he refused to predict that Democrats will take back the Senate. "It is hardly a certainty. No one on our side is breaking champagne just yet" -- although he did say he'd be disappointed if they don't pick up seats.
Dole, meanwhile, attributed the anti-incumbent sentiment solely to the "Six-Year Itch" -- the phenomenon of a second-term president's party losing seats in a midterm election. "Bush is not on the ballot," she affirmed. "While Democrats talk about Bush, our candidates will talk about their records." But will Republicans hold onto the Senate? Dole didn't say much, except: "Quality will prevail."
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Jennifer Yuille
The Republican National Committee is saying that its controversial ad against Tennessee Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr. (D) -- which suggests interracial dating between Ford and a Playboy playmate -- has "run its course" and will finish airing today. An RNC spokesperson insists that the committee isn't pulling the ad, but rather that it has just run its course.
A new RNC ad, which first began running on Sunday in Knoxville, will be rotated in its place. It goes: "Harold Ford Jr. He's slick. He's smooth. But his record? A little shaky. Ford is Tennessee's most liberal Congressman. He campaigns in a church, but took cash from Hollywood's top X rated porn moguls." More: "Harold Ford. Smooth talk. Extreme values."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
With just 13 days left before the midterms, the under-40% President campaigns from within the White House, doing a 10:30 am press conference and a round of interviews with conservative talk-show hosts, while Laura Bush hits Minnesota and Indiana. The White House has its best game face on. Asked yesterday why Bush isn't doing more campaign rallies and other events, spokesman Tony Fratto replied that Bush is ahead of his event pace in 2002, but that because of new campaign finance laws, rallies cost candidates a lot of money. Fratto had no good answer for why Laura Bush is doing so many, then. But he argued that Bush's lack of rallies is no reflection of his popularity.
White House officials aren't the only ones making few solid arguments these days, but Democrats only need to make one. If they do take control of at least one chamber of Congress on election day, it will be more because Republicans lost than because they won. How much Democrats recognize this, or not, could affect the longevity of their newfound majority.
CONTINUED >>
Two blow-ups over TV ads in a couple of key races could cause a problematic backlash against Republicans.
The Tennessee Senate race has been close enough that if Rep. Harold Ford (D) wins it, nabbing not only a Republican seat but the one held by the outgoing Majority Leader, some will point to the controversial Republican National Committee ad and call it a decisive moment. Until now, Ford has run perhaps the best campaign of any Democratic Senate candidate this cycle, positioning him to take advantage of any backlash among African-Americans that might arise over what critics call the ad's implicit racism in showing a scantily-clad blonde asking Ford to call her, conjuring up an image of interracial dating.
CONTINUED >>
"U.S. officials said Tuesday that Iraq's security forces won't be able to stand on their own for another 12 to 18 months, meaning substantial numbers of U.S. forces will likely remain in Iraq through next year... So far in October, 91 American troops have died, making it the deadliest month for U.S. forces this year." Gen. George Casey "did not rule out bolstering the 15,000 American troops now in Baghdad."
The Heritage Foundation hosts what they're billing as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's "first major policy address" since returning from Asia today in Washington.
Both Speaker Dennis Hastert and his deputy chief of staff testified yesterday for a combined eight hours, roughly. Hastert's testimony about when he became aware of Mark Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages conflicted with that of Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), who has claimed that he informed Hastert of the situation earlier than Hastert says he first was notified of it. When he emerged from the committee rooms, Hastert said he wants the committee to find out everyone who knew about the Foley conduct. "Who knew about the sexually explicit messages... when did they know it?" he asked rhetorically. Translation from NBC's Mike Viqueira: Virtually every Republican member who has emerged from the committee after testifying has given a variation of the same line. They are trying to imply that there were Democrats who knew of the explicit communications (and not just the "overfriendly" e-mails that they admit to knowing of), and that they need to be called, too.
CONTINUED >>
The Fed is expected to announce later today that it won't take any action on interest rates, but its policy statement will be scrutinized, reports CNBC's Patti Domm. More big earnings reports are due today, including Boeing and General Motors.
A nonpartisan survey being released today will show that the "rising cost of healthcare is cutting into the ability of a growing number of Americans to save for retirement," the Financial Times reports. "The survey, conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a non-partisan research group, said that 36 per cent of Americans have reduced the amount they salt away for retirement because of the burden of greater healthcare costs. That figure is up from 25 per cent in 2004."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Times reports, "So far this year, Mr. Bush has done 10 times as many closed-press fundraising events compared to 2002. He has also not appeared at a single major Republican rally, unlike four years ago, when he did 32."
The New York Times says there is a “certain class” of Republican candidates who want Bush at their events. “There are those facing ethical questions or struggling to recover from gaffes. There are those desperate for the cash Mr. Bush can bring in just by showing up for lunch. There are those who need the president to turn out a demoralized base.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post's Milbank does a busy-day-in-the-pre-election-life of NBC's own Charlie Cook, nonpartisan political prognosticator and publisher of the respected, nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
On the heels of the MSNBC/McClatchy polls comes a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of five states with key Senate races that shows "Democrats with the lead in Ohio, New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans are ahead in Tennessee and Missouri. In all five contests, the margins were close enough that the advantage could change by Election Day... There's good news in the poll for the Democrats' bid to win the 15 seats they need to take over the House, as voters in all five states said they would prefer Democrats to control Congress after the Nov. 7 elections."
The Times report on the polls says that the Democratic party "is facing potentially decisive resistance from rural voters in three critical Republican-leaning states," Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Speaker Dennis Hastert has emerged from the House Ethics Committee hearing room after about two and a half hours. (His deputy chief of staff, Mike Stokke, was also seen going into the room, where we think he's now testifying.)
Hastert told reporters that he answered the committee's questions "to the best of my ability," and that he wants the committee to find out everyonewho knew about Mark Foley's conduct. "Who knew about the sexually explicit messages... when did they know it?" he asked rhetorically.
Translation: Virtually every Republican member who has emerged from the committee after testifying has given a variation of the same line. They are trying to imply that there were Democrats who knew of the explicit communications (not just the "overfriendly" e-mails that they admit to knowing of), and that they need to be called to testify, as well.
From NBC News:
House Speaker Dennis Hastert has arrived at the Ethics Committee hearing room to testify in the Mark Foley case.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics said today that candidates, the political parties, and other outside groups will spend an estimated $2.6 billion -- yes, billion -- on this year's House and Senate races, making it the most expensive midterm election ever.
In 2002, the total price tag was $2.2 billion (and that was before the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law banned unlimited contributions from the political parties). In 2004, it was $4.2 billion (but that was during a presidential contest). To put the $2.6 billion figure in perspective, that's more than the gross domestic products (GDP) of countries like Swaziland, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Rwanda, Togo, and Malawi, per data from the International Monetary Fund.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Two weeks out... The latest round of MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon polls suggest several key Senate races might be breaking for Democrats, but the polls don't reflect a giant wave building that will shut Republicans out of all competitive seats.
The polls show the GOP incumbents in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island trailing their Democratic opponents by margins wider than the margin of error (by 8 points, 12 points, and 5 points, respectively). The GOP's incumbents in Missouri and Montana and their challenger in New Jersey also lag behind their Democratic rivals, but within the margin of error (by 3 points in each case). Their incumbent in Virginia and their nominee in Tennessee both have slim leads. The horse-race results:
CONTINUED >>
The White House is now bristling at the "stay the course" label for their position on Iraq as much as Democrats do at "cut and run" -- except that as the Washington Post points out, Bush has actually used the phrase "stay the course."
Flexibility is the Administration's new name of the game. Bloomberg reports off the White House briefing yesterday that they have "dropped the phrase 'stay the course' from discussions about Iraq... Communications strategists working with House Republicans circulated a three-page memo... that advises candidates to stress those same points," and "suggests Republicans highlight past statements by military and administration officials that show that the U.S. is adapting to changing military conditions and requiring Iraqi police and security forces to take a more prominent role."
CONTINUED >>
The AP on Bush's economic push: "White House advisers, who think the president should get more credit for recent positive economic news, insist that Mr. Bush isn't trying to change the subject away from the unpopular war. The president will continue to talk about Iraq and the war on terrorism... White House political director Sara Taylor said that the economy is a key issue in about two dozen House races, including campaigns in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio and Washington state."
Channeling First Read, the New York Times observes that Republican candidates don't seem to be getting any traction from an economy that by many measures is performing well. “The economy is virtually nowhere to be found among the campaign ads of embattled Republican incumbents fighting to hold onto their House or Senate seats. Nor is it showing up as a strong weapon in the arsenal of Republican governors defending their jobs from Democrats.”
CONTINUED >>
"Republican strategists are quick to point out that a superior GOTV operation is unlikely, on its own, to salvage races in which their candidate is trailing by even as little as 3 points," Roll Call says. "But for those races in which the Republican is within 2 points or less, they argue that an effective ground game could be the difference between victory and defeat. And they believe their superior turnout operation may help them overcome a sense among pundits that the Republican base will be depressed on Election Day, literally and figuratively."
Some Senate Republicans aren't sharing the wealth with needier colleagues, the Washington Times says.
(Liberal bloggers are nagging safe Democratic lawmakers to do the same.)
CONTINUED >>
Election day is two weeks away, the Chicago Tribune says, “but thousands of Americans already have cast their ballots… The proliferation of early voting, in some states more than a month before Election Day, is having its most profound impact on campaigns in the crucial final weeks.”
The Republican National Committee has e-mailed supporters with a link providing them with information on how to request and cast absentee ballots.
The folks at electionline.org are releasing a report today predicting widespread problems at the polls because of new voting laws and new equipment, all exacerbated by partisan rancor.
Roll Call's Stuart Rothenberg predicts a wave bigger than what we saw in 1994 based on the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and the fact that "the problems hounding Republican Congressional candidates... are far more challenging than anything Democratic Congressional candidates faced in 1994."
The Washington Post defines a wave election as when "citizens in disparate parts of the country decide in the same year to reject an unusually large number of candidates for Congress from one party and to replace them with candidates from the other party."
The San Francisco Chronicle notes how both CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and opponent Phil Angelides (D) have pounced on a GOP House candidate's threatening letter telling Latinos to stay home on election day. Schwarzenegger, who has been criticized in the past for making racially insensitive remarks, called the action a "hate crime" and called for the candidate's resignation from the race. Angelides, meanwhile, made statements to the press from the steps of a courthouse, flanked by Latino activist and officials.
CONTINUED >>
Romney's supporters are trying to temper fallout from a Boston Globe report that his camp was trying to come up with a way to build a network of Mormon supporters for a possible presidential bid by getting the church involved. One of Romney's supporters is taking blame for the "mess," saying that details of the meetings between Romney's camp and religious leaders were overblown.
GOP Sen. John McCain's stance on the Iraq war is isolating him from his party and could hurt his chances in 2008. The Boston Globe writes that by "establishing himself as perhaps his party's biggest Iraq hawk has increasingly isolated McCain within the GOP ranks, and could harm his 2008 presidential prospects if the war remains as unpopular as it is now, political analysts say."
And more Obama-mania! The New York Times covers Obama’s meeting yesterday with the American Society of Magazine Editors, where he “created a little sunlight on Monday between himself and both Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton.” For one thing, he announced he did inhale as a youth (compared with Bill Clinton’s famous announcement to the contrary). And, despite showering plenty of praise on Hillary, he said they had “‘different assessments’” about the wisdom of going into Iraq.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifteen days until election day, it's gotten tough to find a novel angle as the GOP limps toward the finish line for a variety of widely accepted reasons. The party had hoped to campaign on the broader war against terrorism, but a string of recent events, including a spiking US death toll for October, have focused voters' attention on the unpopular war in Iraq and caused party unity to fray. White House efforts to focus on positive developments in the economy are either overshadowed by events abroad or met with skepticism by voters who aren't feeling the effects. Having failed to pass significant ethics and lobbying reform measures all year, Republicans have no means to shield themselves from the latest series of scandals afflicting some of their members and sidelining their top leaders.
As business and government strategist Billy Moore (D) points out, the time remaining for Republicans to change the subject "has all but run out. Early voting and excuse-free absentee balloting, which together will account for half the votes cast this year, has begun in many states and will open in most states this week." The question is whether Democratic party organizations are working the early vote hard to take advantage of a political climate that may ease up a bit for Republicans over the next two weeks, barring further bad news. Meanwhile, the GOP faces the prospect of an unmotivated base and/or alienated independents, and their usual financial edge has been blunted by Democrats' strong late fundraising.
CONTINUED >>
US troop fatalities have hit 83 for October, "the highest monthly toll this year. The pace of U.S. deaths could make October the deadliest month in two years," the AP says. "The outcome of a White House meeting Saturday among Mr. Bush and his top security and military officials could become clearer early next week when Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, and Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, are scheduled to conduct an unusual joint news conference in Baghdad."
Bush repeated on ABC yesterday what he has said before (but not this close to election day) -- that he sees the United States remaining in Iraq well past his presidency.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times front-pages how Bush has become the “optimist-in-chief” when it comes to the midterms. “In lobbying shops and strategy firms around town, the latest Republican parlor game is divining whether the White House optimism is staged, or whether Mr. Bush and his political team really believe what they are saying.”
The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein on Sunday wrote that by practicing the politics of polarization throughout his presidency, Bush has left himself "very little margin for error" when it comes to getting the party base out to win elections. "His approval rating since mid-2005 has rarely reached 45%, and he is now limping into the midterm election with support in most surveys below 40%."
CONTINUED >>
The Sunday Washington Post reported on more inappropriate e-mails from Foley to a former page, and confirmed four new pages with whom Foley stayed in touch after they left the program, though no one "interviewed for this article could cite any instance in which Foley had sex with" one. "Based on the interviews with pages, who spanned most of Foley's dozen years in the House -- and interviews with parents and former program employees -- the congressman's behavior went unchecked because he operated within accepted norms of the program's culture."
Conservative columnist Robert Novak argues that the State Department bureaucrat whom then-White House political director Ken Mehlman allegedly ousted at Jack Abramoff's request "was a notorious political operative inside the Clinton administration." Novak writes that the charge against Mehlman "typified the standard October surprise" and was pushed mainly by House Government Reform ranking member Henry Waxman.
CONTINUED >>
Key economic developments this week will include a Fed meeting, the release of the latest GDP figure, and new earnings and housing data, advises CNBC's Patti Domm. The automakers report earnings this week, as will Boeing. CNBC's Steve Liesman says we're "in neutral here," as far as the Fed in concerned, "unless the data convincingly breaks one way or the other."
The RNC is running a new Web ad -- directed by David Zucker of “Airplane!” and “Naked Gun” fame -- which hits Democrats on taxes. “If Democrats take over Congress, they will raise taxes by $2.4 trillion to keep up with their reckless spending… So maybe the question isn't ‘Can you afford more of this?’ But ‘can you afford more of them?’”
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times again covers the still-expanding pool of competitive House seats. "Democratic strategists believe that if the party can break into this second tier of Republican-leaning districts, they could greatly increase their odds of building a majority large enough to survive for longer than two years... In a measure of the party's growing optimism, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to announce Tuesday that it will begin airing advertisements in 11 new districts... Though both sides agree that many of these districts are growing more competitive, in most cases Democrats still face an uphill climb to reach 50%."
The Sunday Washington Post profiled Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, noting that he may have mismanaged the expectations game because of the now widespread assumption that his party will retake the House, and explaining how he lost part of a finger.
The Washington Times says Republicans are still expected to have a superior voter turnout operation.
USA Today points out that "[f]or the first time since 1994, Democrats are poised to surpass Republicans in the number of state capitals where one party enjoys complete political control - holding the governor's mansion and both chambers of the state legislature," which will give them an advantage in redistricting.
The Wall Street Journal profiles the ALASKA governor's race, in which the Republican nominee with comparably little political experience still leads the state's best-known Democratic politician, a former governor. The Journal says her "main campaign theme of taking a tough stance on ethics is clearly resonating with many voters."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post front-pages the prospect of an Obama presidential run and predictions that he would immediately become one of the top rivals of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D). "Party strategists said that, if voters are looking for change in 2008, Obama would symbolize it better than many of the other possible candidates. But having served just two years in the Senate and seven in the Illinois state Senate, Obama has a thin résumé upon which to build a presidential candidacy."
The New York Times says Obama’s declaration “sent ripples through Democratic circles." More: “One Democratic strategist close to Mr. Obama who spoke on the condition of anonymity suggested that the senator would probably look to the results in Tennessee, where Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. is trying to become the state’s first black senator, to measure the obstacles Mr. Obama might face in a national election.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A bitter fight has erupted between Republicans and Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee. The short story: The GOP chairman, Pete Hoekstra, has suspended the security clearance of a Democratic staffer and commenced a probe into allegations that the staffer leaked that now-famous National Intelligence Estimate that asserts Iraq had become a "cause celebre" for terrorists. At issue is the timing of the leak. Republicans say the staffer in question asked for a copy of the secret document three days before it showed up in the New York Times.
Democrats are beside themselves with anger. They say that, first, "hundreds" of staffers and members had access to the NIE since last May. Second, they say, this is clearly retaliation on Hoekstra's part for the Democrats' release earlier this week of a committee report alleging that disgraced Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) directed some $70 to $80 million in intelligence contracts to his cronies in return for things of value. A Republican source on the committee says that is nonsense, and that this is simply a national security concern over an illegally leaked document. "The timing is what it is," the source says. "It merits some kind of review."
Democrats say that the staffer in question, whose name was outed on another network but is not being printed here, has served in both Republican and Democratic administrations. "The only thing wrong with him is that he works for [ranking member] Jane Harman," a top Democrat source says. "It's fundamentally unfair."
From CNBC's Steve Liesman
MIDLAND, TX -- Anecdotal evidence suggests President Bush's support is lagging in his hometown. An assortment of oilmen and other businesspeople and civic leaders used words like "disappointed" to describe their feelings about Bush's presidency, citing deficit spending, the Iraq war, and the Foley scandal as causes.
They expressed little support for Democrats, but their lack of enthusiasm for Republicans and the President echoed concerns of GOP leaders that the base could just choose to stay home this November.
Another measure of residents' feelings: Former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev, in Midland to give a speech before a packed house of 4,000, got applause after making some critical remarks about the Administration, including a comment that the Iraq war was a mistake. One of the loudest rounds of applause came when Gorbachev said Bush seems OK -- but the problem is the entourage he has surrounded himself with.
From NBC's Mark Murray
As a new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leading Democratic nominee Ned Lamont, 52%-35% (with GOP nominee Alan Schlesinger at 6%), the Lamont campaign has unveiled a brand-new TV ad featuring Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D), which it hopes will begin narrowing the race. In the ad, Dodd narrates, "People want change... We need need a new direction and I think [Lamont] can help us there."
Meanwhile, Lieberman's campaign manager just released a statement on Lieberman's lead in the poll. "It shows that the people of Connecticut are tired of all the finger-pointing and name-calling, and that they are responding to our positive agenda for change in Washington. But one thing we can agree on with the Lamont campaign is that in the end, the only poll that really matters is on Election Day."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Eighteen days out... As Republican leaders welcomed a 12,000+ Dow, it occurred to us that the upcoming midterms could mark the fourth consecutive election in which the economy isn't the predominant factor. In 2000, despite having overseen perhaps the greatest economic expansion in US history, the party occupying the White House lost it. The elections during George W. Bush's presidency have centered on national and homeland security: In 2002, during a recession and other economic problems caused by the September 11 attacks, Bush's party gained seats, and in 2004, Bush won re-election despite the fact that there was no real net job creation during his first term in office.
In 2006, if Democrats sweep Republicans from power in one or both chambers of Congress, it will happen at a time when the Dow is near or at a record high; when gas prices have dropped; and when the unemployment rate is a fairly low 4.6%. CNBC's Patti Domm advises that the next milestone is the intraday high of 12,049.
CONTINUED >>
The chief US military spokesman in Iraq said yesterday that the effort to end the insurgency in Baghdad has fallen short and that "the United States is rethinking its strategy" to end the violence there, the AP says. Also yesterday, the military announced the deaths of three US troops, "raising the death toll for October to 74" and keeping the month "on course to be the deadliest for U.S. forces in nearly two years." Vice President Cheney tells Time magazine that "we're not looking for an exit strategy."
A New York Times analysis says this leaves Bush “with some of the ugliest choices he has yet faced in the war” -- he can order another arrangement of US troops, he can redefine what “victory” means, or he could deploy more troops to Iraq. “But whatever choices he makes… will be forced by a series of events, in Iraq and at home, that now seems largely out of Mr. Bush’s control, in Iraq and at home.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post says Bush and other party officials will spend this final stretch focusing on turning out conservatives by unnerving them with the prospect of national tax and security policy under a Democratic majority. Some Republicans fret that the effort won't be enough to turn the tide. "The mood among most GOP strategists -- with the exception of Rove and a few others -- is decidedly downbeat." One tells the Post that "roughly a dozen" House seats are already gone.
Bush not only appeared with Rep. Don Sherwood in his Pennsylvania district yesterday, but the Sherwoods -- congressman, wife and daughter -- were brought on board Air Force One via the back steps so that the family could make the big descent down the front steps with Bush, the pool reporter noted. This was done, beyond the obvious reason, because the Sherwood campaign had a camera crew president shooting footage for a campaign ad. A recent Sherwood spot features him apologizing to viewers for having an affair.
CONTINUED >>
NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that per a source familiar with the proceedings, members of the investigative subcommittee looking into the Foley scandal are not expected in today, and that any witnesses appearing before staff will be very low-level.
House Majority Leader John Boehner emerged after an hour and half behind closed doors with the subcommittee to tell reporters that he stuck by his version of events in his testimony, Viq reports. Translation: He testified that he told Speaker Dennis Hastert about Foley's inappropriate behavior last spring, and that Hastert responded that the situation had been "taken care of." Hastert has said that he does not remember that conversation, Viq notes. Boehner also asserted that the scandal "doesn't appear to be affecting any races" in the midterm elections.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times front-pages a divided GOP -- tax-cutters are blaming evangelicals, conservatives are pointing their finger at neo-cons, and almost everyone is blaming Foley. “Whether the election will bear out their pessimism remains to be seen… But the post-mortem recriminations can influence politics and policy for years after the fact. After 1992, Republicans shunned tax increases. After 1994, Democrats avoided gun control and health care reform. And 2004 led some Democrats to start quoting Scripture and rethinking abortion rights.”
Bloomberg looks at Republican campaign committee spending in areas of the country that until now had been reliably Republican.
CONTINUED >>
"The Democratic Party's three major campaign committees raised more money last month than their Republican counterparts, slicing deep into a financial edge Republicans hoped would provide an advantage in the final weeks," says the Wall Street Journal.
Appearing with Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman on TODAY this morning (and reminding us by doing so that Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean has spent the entire election cycle avoiding joint appearances with Mehlman), former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe said that Democrats would retake control of both chambers of Congress if the election were held today. Mehlman predicted Republicans would hang onto both because of Democrats' alleged pro-tax and anti-security positions.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is poised to win re-election and possibly become Speaker. But in an article entitled “Only in S.F. would minority leader be criticized as too moderate,” the San Francisco Chronicle notes that Pelosi is facing opposition from both the right and left in her bid for re-election.
USA Today looks at how the McCain-Feingold provision requiring candidates to identify themselves as the source of the messages in their ads now means candidates are "delivering negative messages themselves."
In CALIFORNIA, Orange County Republicans urged the GOP candidate facing Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) to withdraw from the race “after he acknowledged that his campaign was involved in sending out a letter intended to scare off Latino voters. “The episode was a jarring reminder of what some observers call Orange County's history of xenophobia and voter intimidation, an ugly distinction that Republican leaders say they've tried hard to bury.”
Former President Clinton will fundraise for FLORIDA state Sen. Ron Klein, who's trying to unseat Rep. Clay Shaw. Klein hopes to raise about $500,000 from Clinton's visit. The Miami Herald points out that Klein isn't the only one who hopes to "capitalize" on the visit. Shaw "released a radio commercial acknowledging Clinton's appearance -- and used it as a springboard to cast his 26 years in Congress as a moderate, bipartisan tenure."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
Campaigning at a (still rare, so far) public event with endangered GOP Rep. Don Sherwood in Pennsylvania today, President Bush offered some strong partisan rhetoric. On the Democratic party: "There is only one position in the Democrat party that everybody seems to agree on. If you wanna be a Democrat these days, you can be for almost anything, but victory in Iraq is not an option." And on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: "The Speaker of the House, official third in line for presidency, would be a congresswoman who voted against renewing the Patriot Act,against creating the Department of Homeland Security, against removing Saddam Hussein from power, against continuing the terrorist surveillance program, and against questioning terrorists in the CIA program."
Sherwood, who's vulnerable mainly because of an admitted extramarital affair, brought his wife and daughter onto Air Force One via the back steps when the plane landed in Pennsylvania so that they could be seen deplaning down the main staircase alongside the President, per the pool reporter.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a conference call today, Sen. Chuck Schumer, chair of the Democratic Senate campaign committee, argued that Republican Senate candidates are "tying themselves into knots" on Iraq and national security -- proof, he said, that Democrats are winning on these issues. For example, Schumer cited GOP Sen. Conrad Burns' recent remark at a debate that Bush has a secret plan to win in Iraq. Schumer also brought up GOP Sen. Rick Santorum's recent "Lord of the Rings" analogy to Iraq. "As the hobbits are going up Mount Doom, the Eye of Mordor is being drawn somewhere else. It's being drawn to Iraq and it's not being drawn to the U.S.," Santorum said. "You know what? I want to keep it on Iraq. I don't want the Eye to come back here to the United States."
"Secret plans, 'Lord of the Rings,'" Schumer said in the conference call. "Simply put, when candidates are talking about wizards and hobbits to explain their positions on national security, it raises red flags."
From NBC's WHO-TV in Des Moines and MSNBC's Hardball
Sen. John McCain (R) joked yesterday that he would "commit suicide" if Democrats win control of the Senate in November.
McCain made the remark during a campaign stop in Iowa on behalf of Republican congressional candidates. When asked for his reaction to a potential Democratic takeover of the Senate in the midterm elections, McCain said, "I think I'd just commit suicide... I don't want to face that eventuality because I don't think it's going to happen. I think it's going to be tough, but I think we'll do OK."
Asked about the comment by MSNBC's Chris Matthews on Hardball last night, McCain, said, "I thought that was a pretty good line." Matthews: "But is it that important?" McCain: "I think it's important to America, but I think it's -- every once in a while, we should have a little levity."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Jennifer Colby.
Nineteen days before the midterm elections, the Republican party is approaching -- and in some cases setting -- low watermarks in the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, driven mainly by the public's increasingly negative views of the war in Iraq and of the performance of the GOP-run Congress in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal. Voters rate North Korea's nuclear missile test as an important recent event in deciding how they will vote, but opinions remain volatile and at this point, they give Republicans only a slight edge over Democrats on it.
By a margin of 15 points, voters prefer a Democratic- to a Republican-controlled Congress, 52% to 37%. That's the widest margin ever recorded for either party in the survey. It also marks a six-point increase in Democrats' favor since our last poll two weeks prior, when the margin between the two parties was nine points. The new poll was conducted from October 13-16 of 1,006 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
CONTINUED >>
Even as Republican campaign committees make highly unusual investments in places like, um, Idaho, one top White House official insists to NBC's David Gregory that the gloomy outlook for Republicans is overstated. This official says that the economy, the war, and a cluster of local issues will decide the election, and that the big issues for Bush down the stretch will be taxes and terror.
Is Bush a liability? "No." The official went on, "He can help sharpen the questions that will decide these races; he can motivate the broad party to pay attention; and he can help candidates garner the resources to win." Asked about voter intensity, the official cited internal surveys and public studies concluding that that intensity levels between Democrats and Republicans are even. He also insists that his party holds the Senate, keeping their seats in Missouri and Virginia, which analysts see as toss-ups right now. He also believes that the party still has a shot to keep Montana and seems upbeat about Rhode Island and Tennessee, though he thinks Pennsylvania and Ohio are likely gone, Gregory reports. As for the House, it's a close call, the official says, but could go either way. He says of potential losses, "I'm now more a 9-10-11-12-13 guy."
CONTINUED >>
The US and Iraqi offensive "to wrest control of Baghdad from insurgents and sectarian death squads is producing some of the most intense fighting of the war and a spike in American deaths," says USA Today. "At least a third of the recent fatalities happened in Baghdad. At the current pace, October would be the deadliest month since November 2004 when 137 troops died... White House spokesman Tony Snow said the spike in deaths would not make President Bush reconsider his options in Iraq."
The New York Times front-pages how Democrats, on the campaign trail and in TV ads, are mentioning the Iraq war while Republicans aren’t. “It represents a startling contrast with the two national elections beginning in 2002… The development also suggests that what has been a classic strategy of Mr. Bush’s senior adviser, Karl Rove - to turn a weakness into a strength - is not working as well as the White House had hoped.”
CONTINUED >>
Roll Call calls Trandahl's testimony potentially "the turning point" in the Ethics Committee probe of Foley's behavior and how House GOP leaders handled it. "Trandahl could provide key testimony as to when senior aides to Hastert were first informed of Foley’s alleged inappropriate behavior with male pages. Trandahl also could confirm or dispute the veracity of the timeline of events released by the Speaker’s office on Sept. 30... Trandahl’s testimony also will be central to corroborating the testimony of Kirk Fordham."
NBC's Mark Potter reports that two attorneys for Foley say they have given the name of the clergyman who allegedly abused Foley to the Palm Beach County State Attorney. So far, they have not released the name publicly, and say that to the best of their knowledge, this man no longer resides in the United States.
CONTINUED >>
After breaking through 12,000, the next magic marks for the Dow will be closing above 12,000, and the new high of 12,049.51 level it hit in intraday trading yesterday, notes CNBC's Patti Domm.
The Washington Times covers Republican efforts to shift voters' attention to the economy.
The Los Angeles Times uses the GOP's investment in an Idaho House seat to look at how the pool of competitive Republican-held seats "has jumped week by week, giving Democrats an ever-bigger target to shoot at... Even a top Republican strategist estimates that the number of highly vulnerable Republican seats has more than doubled in recent weeks - and now far exceeds the 15 seats Democrats need to pick up to win a House majority... Still, some analysts say Republicans could reduce their losses in the final weeks of the campaign if the spotlight moves to issues that play to GOP strengths, such as the war on terrorism and falling gasoline prices."
The Washington Times reports anecdotal evidence of a dispirited Christian conservative base. "With Election Day less than three weeks away, however, efforts to mobilize conservative voters are intensifying. Top Republicans -- including [Bush], his chief strategist Karl Rove, [Cheney] and [RNC chair] Ken Mehlman -- have been meeting with conservative activists, columnists and broadcasters, emphasizing the importance of this midterm election. That message has rippled out via newspapers, magazines, TV, radio and the Internet... Republican media consultant Craig Shirley said the party's national leadership appears to be trying to scare disaffected voters to the polls by arguing that Republicans aren't as bad as the Democrats."
"Democrats' election-year agenda, which says what they will do if the voters put them back in charge of Congress, would seek to overturn or change just about everything President Bush and the Republicans have done since 2001," including "repealing the bulk of the administration's tax cuts, ending the ban on federal funding for new lines of stem-cell research and limiting some of the investigative, prosecutorial and surveillance methods in the counterterrorism USA Patriot Act," says the Washington Times. "But a top election pollster questions whether Democrats' agenda will play that much of a role in the election's outcome."
In his speech at Georgetown yesterday, former President Clinton said "that the governing Republican majority has abandoned the common good in favor of ideologically driven politics that demonize its opponents, has forced ordinary Americans to fend for themselves and has too often left the United States isolated internationally." He also "was critical of various Bush administration policies. Noting that there are no easy solutions, he said the administration has undermined its efforts to stop North Korea and Iran from developing nuclear weapons by seeking funds for two new nuclear weapons for the U.S. arsenal."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today samples some of the more striking campaign ads airing on TV, saying that old-fashioned ads are still the best way to shape voters' attitudes, despite the ground broken by YouTube and other websites. "Most Americans insist they don't believe what is said in campaign commercials... Campaign strategists and political scientists say ads do work, though, especially the negative ones that voters profess to hate."
A radio ad paid for by a conservative African-American group is causing controversy with its assertion that Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican, and some prominent black Republicans agree with their Democratic counterparts that the ad should be pulled.
In CALIFORNIA, the Sacramento Bee reports that Phil Angelides (D) is stepping up his character attacks on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) -- this time suggesting that the governor “should respond to recall-era claims that he once groped and humiliated women… ‘It was the governor who told (former NBC anchor) Tom Brokaw on national news that he would fully look into this matter and tell the people what it was all about,’ Angelides said. ‘He was the one who made his commitment and didn't keep his promise.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
After Vice President Dick Cheney told Rush Limbaugh yesterday that his party will keep control of the Senate and has "a good shot" at keeping control of the House, White House spokesman Tony Snow was asked today if there's been any change in the White House's confidence about the election outcome. Snow replied: "We're confident we're going to hold the House because we think we have better candidates and better arguments. And in the last two weeks of a campaign people focus on that. And the President is going to make it clear to Republicans that he not only thinks they're going to win, he's going to help them win." That said, Snow also told White House reporters last week that by late this week, Bush would be doing lots of public events with candidates. When asked about that today in light of tonight's closed-press fundraiser, he demurred.
Twenty days until election day... A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll being released at 6:30 pm ET on NBC Nightly News and on MSNBC.com will provide us with an idea of where things stand for Republicans now that the Mark Foley scandal and negative developments for the Bush Administration on Iraq -- namely, the National Intelligence Estimate and the Woodward book -- are further behind them. The last NBC/Journal poll was taken two weeks ago, just after those developments broke. Also tested in this latest poll: the level of public support for military action in North Korea.
Vice President Cheney yesterday told Rush Limbaugh that Republicans will keep control of the Senate and have "a good shot" at keeping control of the House, and that although he admittedly spends his time with Republican audiences while on the road, he finds "a far more positive attitude out there than one would led by believe just by reading the national press." Karl Rove more confidently tells the Washington Times editorial board that the party will keep both majorities and joked about "skewed political coverage that disproportionately shows Democrats poised to take control of Congress."
CONTINUED >>
In Japan earlier today, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said "the United States is ready to use the 'full range' of its military might to defend Japan in light of North Korea's nuclear weapons test, and her Japanese counterpart drew a firm line against developing a Japanese bomb... Part of Rice's assignment on this week's hastily arranged trip... is to lessen the temptation to develop separate national nuclear programs by reaffirming the U.S. intention to defend the nations most at risk." - AP
"The Bush administration is pressing the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki to issue a 'broad' and 'painful' amnesty for insurgents in spite of intense opposition to the proposal from politicians both in Iraq and the US," a senior Administration official tells the Financial Times. "The official was not explicit about the terms of the proposed amnesty... The amnesty issue is divisive in both Iraq and the US, where the emotional question of how to honour American war dead - now at 2,750 - has become entangled in the debate over the merits of an early US withdrawal."
CONTINUED >>
Two and a half weeks since the Foley scandal broke and just under three weeks before the elections, House Republican leadership staffs are now "coordinating a messaging blitz in an attempt to shift some emphasis back to national security and the economy," says The Hill. Other GOP officials are urging members and party operatives to do the same.
The Los Angeles Times says "a debate is growing within the GOP about whether the tent has become too big - by including gays whose political views may conflict with the goals of the party's powerful evangelical conservatives. Some Christians, who are pivotal to the GOP's get-out-the-vote effort, are charging that gay Republican staffers in Congress may have thwarted their legislative agenda... This week, a list that is said to name gay Republican staffers has been circulated to several Christian and family values groups - presumably to encourage an outing and purge."
House Majority Leader John Boehner is expected to appear before the Ethics Committee tomorrow to talk about his awareness and involvement in the Foley situation, per The Hill.
The AP previews Alexander's expected testimony today and also says "Republicans are bracing for testimony this week by [former House Clerk Jeff] Trandahl -- a top House aide who was the day-to-day overseer of the page program until leaving Capitol Hill last year," and who confronted Foley about some of his e-mails to a page.
The New York Times profiles Trandahl, who, as House clerk, "had a rare bird's-eye view of what was occurring beneath the Capitol dome. As a gay Republican, he also had a window into a subculture not widely discussed within his party."
CONTINUED >>
Karl Rove told a Washington Times editorial board yesterday that "the Republican Party would hold the House and the Senate." Rove said "Republicans are beginning to make significant headway in defining their party's differences from congressional Democrats, especially on national security." He "was upbeat,... joking about skewed political coverage that disproportionately shows Democrats poised to take control of Congress." Rove said he "remains confident that Republicans will not lose more than 15" House seats and that a Democratic takeover of the Senate is "virtually impossible."
Vice President Cheney did an interview by phone yesterday with Rush Limbaugh, who asked Cheney how he assesses voters' mood during his travels. Cheney: "the mood that I find in terms of the people I'm talking with is very positive. Now of course, I'm probably not going to see a lot of Democrats coming to a Republican fundraiser, so I don't want to misread the situation. But I think I find a far more positive attitude out there than one would led by believe just by reading the national press." Limbaugh: "Do you get frustrated when you see Republicans speculating on how many House seats they're going to lose?" Cheney: "Well, I think it's a natural, normal situation at this stage... I think we'll hold the Senate, and I also think we got a good shot at holding the House."
CONTINUED >>
"Democratic challengers in more than two-dozen House and Senate races are attacking Republicans in Congress for taking pay raises while voting against a minimum wage increase," says USA Today. "The attacks are contained in... ads running from Washington state to Virginia. In some races..., Democrats also link pay raises to Republican votes against combat bonuses for U.S. troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. While some of the ads may fudge the facts, political analysts say the message appeals to the pocketbook concerns of voters."
A bipartisan group of former election officials and experts will hold a conference call today to brief reporters on what voters can expect at the polls this November, given the recent proliferation of new voting laws and new voting equipment.
In another brewing spat between the Democratic House campaign committee and the Democratic National Committee, the
Washington Post reports that the party's top House strategists are willing to broaden their pool of targeted races in these final weeks to make the most of the bad climate for Republicans, but that the DNC isn't kicking in money to help.
"The [DNC] has no plans to help finance a last-minute push because it just took out a loan to spend up to $10 million more, primarily on Senate races."
(Editor's note: A loan?)
But the DNC isn't the only potential source of funding that's not coming through.
CONTINUED >>
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
There's a milestone for everyone, whether you're interested in 300 million Americans, the prospect of the Dow at 12000, or today marking three weeks until election day. You know which one the White House has in mind as it tries to re-center the midterm election debate on the war on terror, and re-center that debate on Iraq. "Iraq is the central front in the global war on terror that began five years ago," Vice President Cheney told members of the Army's 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell in Kentucky yesterday. "Al Qaeda has operatives in Iraq right now."
The White House is touting this day, on which President Bush will sign the compromise and controversial detainee trial and treatment bill into law, as an "historic day." NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that about 150 people will attend this morning's bill-signing, including much of the Administration's security team (minus the traveling Condoleezza Rice), and that Bush will seek to make the case that the legislation "will help prevent terrorist attacks."
CONTINUED >>
North Korea's government views the UN sanctions as "a declaration of war, and the country will 'deal merciless blows' if the nation's sovereignty is violated," per the AP.
The AP also says the detainee bill Bush will sign this morning "would protect detainees from blatant abuses during questioning... but does not require that any of them be granted legal counsel. Also, it specifically bars detainees from filing habeas corpus petitions... The swift implementation of the law" -- just six weeks after Bush called for it -- "is a rare bit of good news for Bush as casualties mount in Iraq in daily violence."
Bush yesterday reassured Iraq’s Prime Minister that the United States will not set a timetable for withdrawal, even though some military officials and GOP politicians are unhappy with the Iraq government’s progress, the New York Times says. “The White House also suggested that it would not necessarily accept the recommendations of" the bipartisan Iraq Study Group.
CONTINUED >>
Roll Call reports that Karen Weldon’s firm, Solutions North America, "received a $500,000 public relations contract to represent Itera in September 2002." Itera is the Jacksonville, FL-based "U.S. arm of a Russian company run by Igor Makarov... The contract was inked just days before the elder Weldon rounded up 30 Members to attend a dinner at the Library of Congress in honor of Makarov." Weldon is blaming the probe on "Democrats and the liberal watchdog group Citizens for Ethics and Responsibility in Washington." He "offered no proof to substantiate those claims, although he said CREW had written to Justice earlier this year seeking a probe."
The investigation focuses on Weldon's support of Itera "while that company paid fees to Solutions North America... The congressman, for example, intervened on Itera's behalf when U.S. officials canceled a federal grant to the company. He also encouraged U.S. companies to do business with Itera at a time when its reputation had been sullied by accusations of Russian corruption. Weldon said in a prepared statement that he had done nothing wrong and would cooperate in the investigation '100 percent.'"
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times reports on how Bush last month held a meeting with conservative radio hosts who have disagreed with the White House and GOP on immigration, and more recently on the handling of the Foley scandal. “Strategists on both sides agree that the party’s greatest hope for holding control of Congress now rests with its ability to get core Republicans to vote, and that talk radio, which reaches millions of them, is crucial to the task.” The story adds that the White House will hold a kind of talk-radio summit on October 24.
"Bush's political pitch boils down to two words and one argument," notes USA Today in a look at how Bush's stump speeches are put together. "The words are taxes and terrorism. The argument: Democrats are wrong on both... Like an old song with new verses, Bush's basic text is constantly updated. White House communications director Kevin Sullivan said most of Bush's speech comes from the president's handwritten notes, from an outline he developed."
CONTINUED >>
Bush's "legislative affairs team brushes aside the idea of large-scale Democratic victories in November," Roll Call reports. "On Bush’s 2007 agenda, they say, will be some long-standing items, such as reforming Social Security and Medicare, a comprehensive immigration overhaul and reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act. In the nearer term, the White House will focus on wrapping up any outstanding business as the 109th Congress draws to a close."
If Democrats win control of the House, close observers see little happening during the scheduled lame-duck session in November. NBC's Mike Viqueira says the main outstanding issue is $463 billion in discretionary spending (defense and homeland security spending were taken care of before Congress left for recess), which the House could try to pass in November, or put off with a continuing resolution until January. If Republicans retain control of the House, the lame-duck session could look quite different, with Republicans trying to pass tax-cut extensions, more piecemeal immigration reforms, the NSA warrantless wiretapping bill, and trade bills, just to name a few. Boehner has informed Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi that a GOP-run House wouldn't leave till close to Christmas.
"Some California election officials worry that a lengthy ballot and the 192-page voter guides sent to 12 million homes for the Nov. 7 election will discourage would-be voters... This year's ballot lists candidates for eight statewide offices, 13 propositions and local ballot measures in nearly all 58 counties. California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson said 24 counties have mail-in ballots requiring 63 cents of postage."
The NAACP announced yesterday that it will send volunteer observers to polling places in 10 states to notify the Justice Department of any serious problems it spots. The states: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Beyond Maryland, where the group will base its HQ, the other nine "were chosen because they have pivotal elections, high concentrations of black voters or a history of polling problems, including Gulf Coast states Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas."
There are several ways to evaluate fundraising and spending: at the party committee level, or candidate by candidate. USA Today reports a surge in fundraising by a bunch of top Democratic House candidates, but heavier spending on ads by the GOP House campaign committee over its Democratic counterpart. Analysts tell the paper that the late surge in money suggests the momentum lies with Democrats.
A Washington Post analysis finds that "Democrats spent more heavily over the summer and early autumn than their Republican rivals in pivotal House districts, leaving themselves at a disadvantage of more than 2 to 1 in money on hand."
Former President Clinton is scheduled to headline a fundraising event in San Francisco just days before the election, where he'll raise money for House candidates in competitive races, joined by Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel and singer Jackson Browne.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Despite its fundraising advantage over Democrats, the Republican National Committee is finding itself in the unusual position of having to defend its campaign spending decisions. After the New York Times reported this morning that national Republicans are cutting back their investments in Sen. Mike DeWine's re-election campaign in Ohio, RNC chair Ken Mehlman did a conference call with local media to reiterate the RNC's commitment to DeWine and to the state.
"Ohio is and remains an incredibly top priority for us. It's one I'm very confident Mike DeWine can and will win. The evidence of our commitment is that we're putting our money where our mouth is. No state will receive more resources from the Republican National Committee than Ohio. From this point forward, we will spend millions more on turnout and millions more on message. We have a huge staff. And intend and have right now a very aggressive program," Mehlman said on the call, per a transcript provided by the RNC.
Special to First Read from The Hotline
The Audacity of Hope, Sen. Barack Obama's second book, will be uncrated at bookstores everywhere on Tuesday. His publicity tour hits all of the heavyweights. It began over the weekend with Time Magazine, which gave its cover to the senator with 99th lowest seniority. Joe Klein wrote the lead article (which included this fascinating sentence to describe how Obama elicits different reactions: "The African Americans tend to be fairly reserved--quiet pride, knowing nods and be-careful-now looks. The white people, by contrast, are out of control").
On Wednesday, Obama appears on Oprah from Chicago. Thursday and Friday are devoted to conventional interviews on The Today Show, Tom Joyner's radio show, NPR, Tavis Smiley, and a variety of niche media. Obama tapes 60 Minutes for Sunday, and then on Sunday morning, is Tim Russert's guest on Meet the Press.
BTW: Here is Obama's careful construction about 2008, per Klein: "When the election is over and my book tour is done, I will think about how I can be most useful to the country and how I can reconcile that with being a good dad and a good husband," he says carefully, and then adds, "I haven't completely decided or unraveled that puzzle yet."
From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
No Republican has won a Senate seat in Maryland in a quarter century. But Democrats both in Washington and in Maryland sound a bit fretful about Democrat Ben Cardin’s race against this year’s Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele.
"The (Cardin) literature is not strong enough," complained Democratic member of the House of Delegates Joanne Benson to Democratic party operative Artie Harris Sunday afternoon at an event in Upper Marlboro, Md. where Cardin was wooing black entrepreneurs. "Strong Democrats in Prince George’s County don’t want to support Michael Steele, but they do need to know more about Ben," said Benson, who represents a predominantly black district in Prince George’s County. Prince George’s County is Steele’s home turf, and on Saturday he said he hopes to get 35% of the vote there, about 15 points better than GOP candidates usually do.
Racial politics is one reason Democrats sound a bit concerned about Steele. He is an African-American and Cardin defeated African-American rival Kweisi Mfume in the Democratic primary. Referring to the historic scarcity of blacks in top Maryland offices, Steele said, "Does that translate into votes for me? I don’t know. That’s my job to convince them that I’m worth the risk in November."
At the Upper Marlboro event, standing next to Cardin, Sen. John Kerry (D) addressed the hesitation black voters might feel about Cardin: "I know there are some folks here in Maryland, particularly in the minority community, who sometimes say, ‘You know, I go out and I vote Democratic, but what do the Democrats do for me? Well, folks, Democrats haven’t had their hands on the levers that can actually deliver since 1994 in the House and Senate and since 2000 in the White House."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
With 22 days to go, the GOP's ethical issues have proliferated rather than died down. Republican members continue to troop before the Ethics Committee -- including House Majority Leader John Boehner, who's scheduled to appear tomorrow -- in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal. Rep. Bob Ney (R) of Ohio pled guilty to accepting bribes in exchange for helping disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and plans to resign. News media mining recently disclosed e-mails from Abramoff and his associates are reporting on help Abramoff got from the White House, including the current chair of the Republican National Committee.
And that's just the Foley- and Abramoff-related stuff. Sen. George Allen has improperly disclosed stock options. Sen. Arlen Specter is cooperating with a probe of whether one of his staffers directed business to her lobbyist husband. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, balancing things out a bit, has asked his chamber's ethics panel to look into whether he improperly disclosed a real estate transaction that reaped him a $700,000 profit. Longtime Rep. Curt Weldon (R) of Pennsylvania is being investigated by the FBI for potentially steering business to his 28-year-old daughter's consulting firm.
CONTINUED >>
Today, Bush meets with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and UN Ambassador John Bolton to talk about North Korea and attends a dinner with Muslim leaders. "North Korea's apparent nuclear test last week triggered the kind of partisan sniping rarely heard when the United States faces an international crisis," notes the Hartford Courant, which focuses on how it played in the already up-and-running presidential race.
"Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said in an interview with USA TODAY that his government will not force militias to disarm until later this year or early next year, despite escalating violence in Baghdad fueled by death squads and religious warfare. Al-Maliki's remarks point to a growing gap between the U.S. and Iraqi governments over how to handle growing sectarian violence... Al-Maliki also predicted a significant U.S. troop withdrawal starting early next year, despite the growing violence."
CONTINUED >>
The US Capitol Police searched years of records and came up with no indication that the story of Foley showing up drunk in front of the House page dorm is true -- but the incident could have happened without any report being filed, noted the Saturday Washington Post. Former Foley chief of staff Kirk Fordham was expected to tell the House Ethics Committee in his testimony last week that he believed the incident occurred.
Another vulnerable Republican incumbent just became more so. The Justice Department is investigating whether Rep. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania "traded his political influence for lucrative lobbying and consulting contracts for his daughter... The FBI has formally referred the matter to the department's Public Integrity Section for additional scrutiny. At issue are Weldon's efforts between 2002 and 2004 to aid two Russian companies and two Serbian brothers with ties to former Yugoslavian president Slobodan Milosevic."
CONTINUED >>
As other Republicans fret, President Bush continues to express confidence that Republicans will retain control of Congress, noted the Sunday Washington Post, and Karl Rove is saying that Republicans will lose only eight to 10 seats in the House and that a Democratic takeover in the Senate is "inconceivable." "The question is whether this is a case of justified confidence -- based on Bush's and Rove's electoral record and knowledge of the money, technology and other assets at their command -- or of self-delusion. Even many Republicans suspect the latter."
That said, the San Francisco Chronicle examines how Bush and a Speaker Nancy Pelosi would work together if Democrats take control of the House. “[T]here is little evidence of warmth, respect or policy agreements between the two. It is hard to imagine Pelosi and Bush, after demonizing each other for political purposes, developing the relationship forged between Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill and Republican President Ronald Reagan, who waged bitter policy battles during the 1980s but came to admire each other and build a friendship.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times reports on the GOP's readjustment of its “firewall” strategy to keep control of the Senate. “Republicans are now pinning their hopes of holding the Senate on three states - Missouri, Tennessee and… probably Virginia - while trying to hold on to the House by pouring money into districts where Republicans have a strong historical or registration advantage… Republicans also said they would run advertisements in New Jersey this week to test the vulnerability of Senator Robert Menendez.”
The Democratic Senate campaign committee boasts to First Read that five of its candidates -- Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jim Webb in Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, and Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhodes Island -- outraised their GOP counterparts in the third quarter.
CONTINUED >>
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) joined evangelicals for their "Liberty Sunday" telecast from Boston to churches around the country in an effort to motivate social conservatives to go vote. The main topic of the telecast was banning gay marriage. "Eight states -- Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin -- will be voting on constitutional amendments that would bar same-sex marriage. And two days later, on Beacon Hill, the Legislature is to vote on whether to advance toward the ballot a measure that would overturn same-sex marriage in Massachusetts, the only state where it is legal."
Time magazine devotes its cover to a Democrat who isn't closing the door on running for president in 2008: Sen. Barack Obama.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
A just released Democracy Corps poll (D) of the 49 most competitive Republican-held congressional seats in the nation shows that Democrats are poised to pick up a significant number of these seats. According to the poll (conducted Oct. 10-12 of 1,200 respondents in these districts), the named Democratic candidates have an overall 49%-45% lead over the named Republicans. Among the top-tier of these 49 races (those considered by experts to be the likeliest to turn over), Democrats enjoy a 50%-43% edge; among the second tier, they have a 50%-44% advantage; and among the third tier, they're ahead 48%-46%.
The poll also finds that voter intensity among Democrats is higher than it is among Republicans: 66% of Democrats in these GOP-held districts are very interested in this year's elections, compared with 56% of Republicans who say this. Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, who conducted this survey, said: "These numbers reflect a meltdown in support for the Republicans and suggest a very strong wave in which Democrats would take a majority of these seats." Democrats need to net 15 seats to take back control of the House.
Democratic strategist James Carville, who joined Greenberg on a conference call with reporters, added that the poll shows the wave will certainly equal -- and perhaps even surpass -- the gains Republicans achieved in 1994. "I haven't seen any numbers like this in my career in national politics." Carville even argued that Democrats should borrow money to be able to compete in many more races. "We are not going to have an opportunity like this for a long time come."
From NBC's Joel Seidman, Jim Popkin, and Aram Roston
Ohio Rep. Bob Ney (R) pleaded guilty today to felony bribery and conspiracy charges resulting from the Abramoff lobbying scandal, and he will resign from Congress in the next few weeks. Ney's lawyer has asked for the congressman to be incarcerated in a facility that has an alcohol treatment program. The Justice Department has asked for his sentence to be 27 months. In a statement, Ney said, "I never intended my career in public service to end this way, and I am ashamed that it has. I never acted to enrich myself or get things I shouldn't, but over time, I allowed myself to get too comfortable with the way things have been done in Washington, D.C. for too long."
Meanwhile, a Justice Department spokesman tells NBC News that federal prosecutors in Arizona have opened a preliminary inquiry into a camping trip retiring Arizona Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) took 10 years ago with two teenage congressional pages. The spokesman says the US Attorney in Arizona has started a "preliminary assessment" of the trip, after an unidentified source made allegations about the Congressman's behavior on it. As NBC News first reported, Kolbe took a trip down the Grand Canyon in July 1996 with a group that included two male 17-year-old pages who had recently left the congressional page program. National Park Service employees were also on the three-day trip, along with several Kolbe staffers and the congressman's sister. Kolbe's office denies anything improper happened on the trip.
From NBC's Joel Seidman
On November 15, eight days after the midtem elections, disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff is expected to report to federal prison on his own guilty pleas relating to the Florida-based SunCruz casino scandal. Prosecutors and Abramoff's own attorney have jointly asked the federal judge to recommend that Abramoff serve his 70-month sentence at the federal correctional facility in Cumberland, MD, which would allow him to continue to cooperate with federal investigators on the influence-peddling scandal that has taken down one member of Congress so far and caused problems for others. Republican Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio is expected to plead guilty today to accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in trips and other gifts in exchange for taking official action on behalf of Abramoff's clients.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
With 25 days yet to go before the 2006 midterm elections, a serious contender has dropped out... of the presidential race in 2008. For anyone who has dared take their eyes off of 2008 for a few months to focus on the midterms, let former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's announcement yesterday serve as a reminder of just how early this open-seat contest for president has begun. Warner took months to test the waters as seriously as any candidate, attracted some presidential-caliber personnel, and opted out -- all before the 2006 elections have even take place. Other contenders on both sides are queued up like planes at the airport to start signaling their intentions to run once the dust settles after November 7.
The first candidate out, Warner may also be the last one to exit the race entirely on his own terms. Once the midterms are over and the national media zeros in on the 2008 candidates, the pressure will only intensify on those who are faltering to drop out.
CONTINUED >>
The AP notes that Bush "defended" Speaker Dennis Hastert during their joint appearance yesterday without mentioning the Foley scandal. The story also points out that the two GOP House candidates who were the beneficiaries of the fundraiser "spoke differently about the president." The candidate in the "uphill" race spoke positively about having Bush visit the area, while the candidate in the toss-up race noted how he has been "'very vocal in my separation and criticism of the administration.'"
The Los Angeles Times calls Bush's words of support for Hastert a "big verbal hug." "Bush and other Republicans hope to return the focus of the campaign to national security issues. But the Foley scandal continued to play out" as Foley's former chief of staff appeared before the House Ethics Committee.
CONTINUED >>
Focusing on North Korea and Iran, the Financial Times observes, "While analysts and diplomats in Washington do not rule out the possibility of US military strikes against Iran - some even wager a better than 50 per cent chance by next summer - there is a sense that the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive or preventive war is buried in the wreckage of Iraq... Interviews with US officials... reveal that the liberation theology that dominated the post-September 11 2001 discourse... has given way to a more pragmatic approach. The shift is so pronounced that both neoconservatives and liberal hawks... are alarmed that the Bush administration’s apparent embrace of realpolitik will mean abandoning promises made to oppressed peoples while entering into nuclear-reduction deals with the Iranian and North Korean regimes."
The Wall Street Journal covers the political debate "about which administration bears more responsibility for allowing [North Korea] to acquire such weapons. Republicans accused the Clinton administration of failing to take tough steps in the 1990s to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear-weapons program. Democrats say Mr. Bush's refusal to engage Pyongyang drove North Korea to accelerate that program, culminating in the announced test this week."
CONTINUED >>
In his testimony before the House Ethics Committee, former Foley chief of staff Kirk Fordham said he warned the Speaker’s office at least three years ago about Foley’s behavior, a charge the Speaker’s office denies, the New York Times reports. “Mr. Fordham’s testimony rests at the center of what investigators are trying to determine. The notion that he is, essentially, testifying against the word of Mr. Hastert and his closest aides underscores how the page scandal has upended the midterm election campaign and created unlikely political casualties.”
The AP previews today’s testimony by Rep. John Shimkus (R), who oversees the House page program and who says he tried to stop Foley from emailing a Louisiana page in late 2005. Shimkus “says he kept the two other House members overseeing the pages in the dark as he confronted Foley last fall. Shimkus… said he was following the wishes of the boy's parents by not telling the other members.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post notices how Bush has, in speeches, "repeatedly declared a range of problems 'unacceptable,' including rising health costs, immigrants who live outside the law, North Korea's claimed nuclear test, genocide in Sudan and Iran's nuclear ambitions. Bush's decision to lay down blunt new markers about the things he deems intolerable comes at an odd time, a phase of his presidency in which all manner of circumstances are not bending to his will... Some presidential scholars and psychologists describe the trend as a signpost of Bush's rising frustration with his declining influence."
Bush today also does another fundraiser for the Republican National Committee in Washington today which is expected to bring in around $900,000. Vice President Cheney’s office said that yesterday's fundraiser for Rep. Jim Ryun (R) in Topeka was Cheney's 113th campaign event of the cycle (dating back to March 2005), with total take of $40 million. He has done 57 events for House candidates and incumbents, 20 Senate events, four gubernatorial events, and 32 for national and state party committees.
Suddenly security doesn't seem like such a great issue for Republicans anymore? "President Bush and Republican Senate and House candidates are talking more about taxes in speeches, debates and TV spots after polls showed it is the Republican Party's best issue in a tough midterm election season," per the Washington Times. "After being off the campaign radar for months, the tax issue is now turning up in races from Virginia to Minnesota, with a little recent help from Democrats."
Bush's chief economic advisor from 2001-2002, Larry Lindsey, touts the Bush tax cuts in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, saying they've not only had a positive effect on the economy but also on the budget.
The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports, "Only 12 of 35 in WSJ.com survey see optimal economic performance if Republicans keep both houses of Congress for last two years of Bush’s term. Favored outcome of respondents: Democrats win the House but not the Senate."
In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook observes that a total of 59 Republican-held seats are in play in November (with Democrats on their best day possibly picking up 30-35 of them), and that control of the Senate will likely come down to the races in Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Jersey. "[W]e need to be aware of the how bad this election could be for Republicans, while also keeping in mind that politics is a volatile business."
The Washington Post front-pages a look at how the Republican House and Senate campaign committees are redirecting resources away from races they're less likely to win toward the incumbents they need to protect, first and foremost, in order to retain their majorities. "Some top Republicans privately talk about losing a minimum of 12 seats... and as many as 25 or 30 seats. Democratic strategists see the range of potential pickups in almost identical terms."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post observes that with Warner out, and depending on whether Sen. George Allen (R) survives his re-election campaign, Virginia could go from having two presidential contenders to none.
More from the Post: "Seeking to quickly capitalize on Warner's decision, Bayh spent the day reaching out to jilted Warner backers -- making the argument that his campaign is a natural landing spot for them."
The Boston Globe notes that Warner's "exit leaves the potential Democratic field with only one leading Southerner -- former North Carolina Senator John Edwards -- and a surfeit of candidates from the Northeast, a region from which Democratic candidates have had trouble winning national campaigns in the past."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Aram Roston
Per a source familiar with the ethics investigation on Capitol Hill, former Foley chief of staff Kirk Fordham will testify today before the House Ethics Committee that former House Clerk Jeff Trandahl, who helped oversee the page program, brought concerns to Fordham's attention several times about Foley's "chumminess" with pages. Fordham also will testify that he tried to discuss the matter with Foley several times, but did not have success in stopping the inappropriate behavior.
This source also expects Fordham to testify that the key incident, which prompted him to appoach the Speaker's office, was a report that "Mark showed up at the page dorm drunk after work, trying to get in." And, that he was notified of the incident by Trandahl, then the House Clerk, and that the two men agreed that Fordham would go to the Speaker's office to try to get them to intercede directly with Foley.
Fordham is also likely to testify that he spoke in person with Scott Palmer, Hastert's powerful chief of staff. However, as Fordham's lawyer has publicly said, Fordham cannot pinpoint the date of that approach. And, according to the source, Fordham will say his understanding later was that Palmer had indeed talked to Foley and had "taken care" of the issue.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a statement posted on his political action committee's Web site, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) announced that he will not be running for president in 2008. His reason: He wants to have a real life. "This past weekend, my family and I went to Connecticut to celebrate my Dad's 81st birthday," he said in the statement, "and then we took my oldest daughter Madison to start looking at colleges. I know these moments are never going to come again. This weekend made clear what I'd been thinking about for many weeks -- that while politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge -- at this point, I want to have a real life."
He added that his decision had nothing to do with thinking he'd lose ("I feel we would have had as good a shot to be successful as any potential candidate in the field"), or that his family didn't want him to run ("Lisa and our three girls have always had a healthy amount of skepticism, but would have been willing to buckle down and support the effort").
CONTINUED >>
Special to First Read from The Hotline
Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner plans to make a major announcement today about his 2008 presidential bid, three Virginia Democratic sources said. According to two Virginia Democrats who have been formally briefed, Warner is expected to say that he has decided not to run for president in 2008. Warner will speak to Virginia reporters at 11:00 am ET. A Warner spokeswoman declined to comment.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Twenty-six days until election day... Mark Foley's former chief of staff is expected to tell the House Ethics Committee that he notified Speaker Dennis Hastert's top aide of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages, while President Bush stands with Hastert at an open-press fundraiser for Republican candidates in Chicago. Responding to a question about Hastert (one out of 14) during his press conference yesterday, Bush rejected the suggestion that Hastert's credibility has been damaged by the scandal and said he appreciated Hastert's "strong declaration of his desire to get to the bottom of it." He also asserted that the elections will be decided "by security and the economy."
At this writing, the economic angle seems the more promising one for Bush. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that pessimism about the economy has lifted somewhat in the wake of falling gas prices. Bush also announced yesterday that he has cut the deficit in half (per inflated projections) well ahead of his self-determined schedule, though analysts raise doubts about the longer-term fiscal picture. On the security front, the Administration seems to have few good options for how to deal with North Korea and faces criticism that they've been focusing on the wrong rogue nation, while the Army chief of staff said yesterday that the current US troop level in Iraq may be maintained until 2010.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times on Bush appearing with Hastert today: “Only weeks ago, Illinois Republicans worried about having Mr. Bush attend a fund-raiser for local Congressional candidates on Thursday, given his approval ratings. Mr. Hastert’s name was highlighted on the invitations, printed larger than Mr. Bush’s. Now, it is Mr. Hastert who is seen as the bigger liability. And now it is Mr. Bush who is trying to boost Mr. Hastert.”
Channeling First Read, the Washington Post notes how the scandal has "sidelined" Hastert and House GOP campaign committee chief Tom Reynolds right when they otherwise would be focusing intently on helping to elect Republicans.
CONTINUED >>
Roll Call reports that House Majority Leader John Boehner has been called to testify before the Ethics Committee at a date TBD. "Additionally, Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-La.) will appear before the ethics committee next week... The Louisiana Republican will discuss his role in 2005 in informing House Republican leaders that a former page - sponsored by his office - had been made uncomfortable by an e-mail exchange with Foley."
The paper also calls Hastert chief of staff Scott Palmer "unquestionably the most powerful unelected official in the House," and "extraordinarily devoted to protecting his boss." Palmer "has now gone into crisis-control mode along with the rest of the Speaker’s staff; more than one Republican has commented that Hastert’s office now resembles a 'bunker.' Palmer has said the Fordham meeting simply 'did not happen,' and his friends and longtime colleagues say they can’t imagine he is lying."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Times reports that Bush Administration officials who have "read the classified assessments" say the recent US "intelligence analyses of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs were flawed and the lack of clarity on the issue hampered U.S. diplomatic efforts to avert the" missile test. "Some recent secret reports stated that Pyongyang did not have nuclear arms and until recently was bluffing about plans for a test," per these officials.
The New York Times: “Bush said Wednesday that he would not use force against North Korea because ‘diplomacy hasn’t run its course,’ but acknowledged that many Americans wonder why he invaded Iraq but has not taken military action to head off North Korea’s race for a bomb.”
Bloomberg rounds up criticism of the Bush Administration for focusing on the wrong threat -- that instead of focusing on Iraq, which has turned out to have no WMD, it should have focused on North Korea, which apparently does have WMD.
CONTINUED >>
The AP has a long story on how Harry Reid "collected a $1.1 million windfall on a Las Vegas land sale even though he hadn't personally owned the property for three years, property deeds show. In the process, Reid did not disclose to Congress an earlier sale in which he transferred his land to a company created by a friend and took a financial stake in that company... The complex dealings allowed Reid to transfer ownership, legal liability and some tax consequences to [the friend's] company without public knowledge, but still collect a seven-figure payoff nearly three years later. Reid hung up the phone when questioned about the deal during an AP interview last week." A former FEC lawyer tells the AP that Reid seems to have violated Senate rules.
Reid spokesman Jim Manley issued a statement: "Obviously, Republicans are in danger of losing the House and the Senate and are desperate to push out any story that takes their troubles off the front page." Manley said that Reid "fully disclosed" his ownership of the land. "If the Ethics Committee requests a technical correction to Senator Reid's disclosure forms we are happy to provide one."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post on Bush's news conference yesterday: "The hour-long news conference gave Bush an opportunity to try to regain some control over a dangerous political environment for Republicans just four weeks before midterm elections."
"For almost an hour Wednesday, Bush focused public attention on national security, the economy and the tax policies of the Democratic Party - all issues that GOP strategists would prefer to discuss as the clock ticks on their ability to salvage the midterm elections," says the Los Angeles Times.
Howard Kurtz's long look at Tony Snow's mostly quite successful turn as White House spokesman briefly touches on his unprecedented role as fundraiser.
The Financial Times on Bush's deficit announcement yesterday: "Mr Bush said the reduced deficit was proof his 'pro-growth policies worked', and that his tax cuts should be made permanent... Some economists were sceptical that the tax cuts had generated the economic growth and pointed out that much of the recovery in tax revenues... appeared to be linked to record corporate profits. They warned that 2006 could mark a low in budget deficits before rising next year... Administration officials denied that they manipulated forecasts for political purposes. Ed Lazear, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, last week said the forecasts had nothing to do 'with strategic behaviour by anybody.'"
Per a new poll, 80% “of Americans believe it is difficult for most first-time buyers to afford a home… Many people - 59 percent - believe the situation is worse now than five years ago.”
Roll Call's Stu Rothenberg writes, "What we are seeing, increasingly, is 1994, with the parties reversed. The midterm elections overwhelmingly remain a referendum on President Bush and the Republican Congress. The Foley scandal makes it more difficult for GOP candidates across the country to cut through the media coverage of the controversy and to localize their races and discredit their Democratic opponents. But the Republicans were in a hole even before" the Foley scandal, though it "does increase the possible size of an already substantial Democratic wave."
On The Tonight Show last night, Reuters reports, CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) told Jay Leno, "To link me to George Bush is like linking me to an Oscar... That's ridiculous." Meanwhile, challenger Phil Angelides' campaign “pleaded with NBC affiliates to black out [Schwarzenegger's] appearance... During Schwarzenegger's 15-minute appearance, the only reference to the combative California campaign came in Leno's questions. Neither mentioned [Angelides] by name.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The back-and-forth over North Korea continues, and former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has fired the latest volley -- in response to GOP charges blaming the Clinton Administration over North Korea's nuclear test. In a statement released by her office, Albright said that during Clinton's White House tenure, "there were no nuclear weapons tests by North Korea, no new plutonium production, and no new nuclear weapons developed in Pyongyang. Through our policy of effective constructive engagement, the world was safer. President Bush chose a different path and the results are evident for all to see."
She added, "The issue that matters at the moment is that North Korea's apparent nuclear test demands a serious international response, not partisan finger-pointing."
From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski, Mike Viqueira, and Elizabeth Wilner
Even as President Bush speaks in the Rose Garden, there are developments on the two issues that are weighing down his party's midterm election chances: the Iraq war and the Mark Foley scandal.
The Army Chief of Staff, General Pete Schoomaker, told reporters this morning that the Army is planning to keep the US troop level in Iraq at its current level through the year 2010. Schoomaker said "this is not a prediction," but that based on current requirements, it's more prudent to plan future troop rotations into Iraq at the current level. There are now some 145,000 US troops on the ground there.
And up on Capitol Hill, Peggy Sampson, chief page supervisor for the majority, has entered the House Ethics Committee chambers. While it's not absolutely certain that she is there to testify, it's highly likely that she is. Sampson is alleged to have, at some point, gone to the Clerk of the House to complain about Foley's contact with pages. A fixture around the House chamber, she's known to keep strict discipline among the GOP pages.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Twenty-seven days until election day... President Bush tends to the base, doing his part to reassure those social and fiscal conservatives who might be thinking the Republican party has come loose from its moorings on moral values and government spending. Today, he's expected to announce that the deficit for the previous fiscal year will be smaller than projected, and that he will have cut it in half well ahead of his self-proclaimed deadline of 2009. (He'll probably credit his tax cuts, which he's touting increasingly on the campaign trail.) Analysts say the longer-term budget picture looks less positive. But many conservatives view deficit-cutting not only as a fiscal obligation but as a moral one, as well. And damage control on the Foley scandal appears to be on Bush's agenda in the form of a meeting with the leaders of the Southern Baptist Convention.
Bush also has a suddenly scheduled a Rose Garden press conference at 11:00 am.
CONTINUED >>
The Chicago Tribune says “further signs of discontent” among conservatives emerged yesterday when Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council questioned in an article “whether gay Republican staffers and members of Congress were working behind the scenes to undercut the political agenda of religious conservatives.” Noting that Foley and Kolbe are gay, and that former Clerk Jeff Trandahl is a board member of the Human Rights Campaign, Perkins wrote, “’The GOP will have to decide whether it wants to be the party that defends the traditional moral and family values that our nation was built upon... Put another way, does the party want to represent values voters, or Mark Foley and friends?’”
White House spokesman Tony Snow flatly rejected the idea yesterday that his fundraising appearance for Speaker Dennis Hastert this weekend would be awkward, given the timing, and said "the message is that we're standing by the Speaker, and also that I'm going to be telling people what the President is doing and why." He acknowledged that the Foley scandal "certainly hasn't been a lift" in terms of the President's or the party's poll standing.
CONTINUED >>
Hastert yesterday said he'd fire any staffer who failed to alert him of Foley's electronic messages or other advances. Former page Jordan Edmund met with FBI investigators for a couple of hours in Oklahoma City yesterday, and his lawyer says he has been contacted by the House Ethics Committee. Also, "Kirk Fordham, a former Foley aide who says he alerted Hastert staffers to Foley's inappropriate behavior as early as 2004, is scheduled to appear before the House ethics committee Thursday," says USA Today.
The Washington Post reports on "indications that Democrats spent months circulating five less insidious Foley e-mails to news organizations before they were finally published by ABC News..., which prompted the leaking of the more salacious instant messages." More: "The most sexually explicit material... appears to be disconnected from politics. The two former pages who revealed the correspondence to ABC News and The Washington Post, however, may never have come forward had Democratic operatives not divulged the five more benign e-mails that Foley had sent to a Louisiana boy." "The timing of the e-mails' release appears to be more of a coincidence than an 'October surprise.'"
CONTINUED >>
The New York Daily News says McCain's criticism yesterday of the Clinton's Administration's handling of North Korea "is the second time in recent weeks that Republicans have blamed an embarrassing international development on former President Clinton."
"Voters in more than one-third of Massachusetts' cities and towns will get a rare chance to register their opinion on the war in Iraq next month when they consider a ballot question on whether the United States should immediately withdraw all troops," reports the Boston Globe. "The nonbinding question asks voters in all or parts of 139 municipalities whether their state representative should be instructed to vote in favor of a resolution calling on President Bush and Congress to end the war and bring the soldiers home."
The Washington Post's Milbank points out that participants in yesterday's White House conference on school safety, which was scheduled in the wake of school shootings in three states, barely mentioned the word "guns." "This was no misfire. The White House... neglected to invite any gun-control advocates... While experts dispute how much blame to place on children's access to guns, even the invited guests found it a bit odd to banish the topic entirely from a school-violence forum."
The Los Angeles Times suggests the Bushes avoided the topic yesterday because it's "a politically volatile issue sure to inflame partisan passions in a midterm election year."
CONTINUED >>
Senate Judiciary chair Arlen Specter has acknowledged that the FBI is investigating whether a member of his staff broke the law "by helping her husband, a lobbyist, secure almost $50 million in Pentagon spending for his clients." USA Today points out that the "probe stems from a February report by USA TODAY about" the staffer, in which the paper reported that "Specter helped direct $48.7 million in Pentagon spending over the past five years to clients of her lobbyist husband."
He isn't the first member to come under this kind of scrutiny, but he might be the most vulnerable one to face it this year: The Wall Street Journal looks at how the projects GOP Rep. Charles Taylor steers to his North Carolina district have raised the value of Taylor's real estate holdings there. "Mr. Taylor says using his clout to bring federal money to his district is nothing to apologize for. He warns that the largess might dry up if [former Redskins QB and Democrat Heath] Shuler, a political novice, is elected."
USA Today got hold of a preliminary report to the US Election Assistance Commission, which had not been released publicly, which "has found little evidence of the type of polling-place fraud" that a raft of new state measures, including controversial voter ID laws, seek to stop. "The bipartisan report by two consultants to the election commission casts doubt on the problem those laws are intended to address." The report "says most fraud occurs in the absentee ballot process, such as through coercion or forgery... Others who reviewed the report for the election commission differ on its findings... Conservatives dispute the research and conclusions."
A true political man-bites-dog story: The New York Times reports that Justice Department, in Mississippi, has launched the first federal lawsuit accusing blacks of suppressing white voters. “The action represents a sharp shift, and it has raised eyebrows outside the state. The government is charging blacks with voting fraud in a state whose violent rejection of blacks’ right to vote, over generations, helped give birth to the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Yet within Mississippi the case has provoked knowing nods rather than cries of outrage, even among liberal Democrats.”
Karl Rove has raised more than $12 million for Republican candidates this cycle. "The total is remarkable for a White House staffer, more than any aide has been known to raise before... Rove’s fundraising total also shows that despite Democrats’ persistent efforts to demonize him,... Rove remains very popular with rank-and-file conservatives." (We wonder how much Tony Snow will raise?)
The San Francisco Chronicle reports that traditionally GOP-leaning businesses in California are dishing out funds to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s campaign in anticipation of Democrats winning the House.
The Los Angeles Times notes how Democrats can only retake the Senate if they win seats in a bunch of red states. "Election day will decide whether discontent over the nation's direction overrides entrenched GOP advantages, especially among rural voters, in these culturally conservative states."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
A spokesperson in Sen. Hillary Clinton's office fired off this written response to McCain's criticisms of the Clinton Administration's North Korea policies -- although it's more directed at President Bush than John McCain. "Now is not the time to play politics of the most dangerous kind -- with our policy on North Korea. History is clear that nothing the Bush Administration has done has stopped the North Koreans from openly testing a nuclear weapon and present a new danger to the region and the world. President Bush has been in charge of North Korea policy for six years, and two days ago we saw the brazen result."
More from the statement: "Senator Clinton supports a National Missile Defense System that has been tested and actually works. She supports an approach that protects us from the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, as the Clinton Administration successfully did for eight years."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Are we beginning to see the contours of a possible Clinton-McCain presidential race? In remarks today, Sen. John McCain (R) said the Clinton Administration's policy on North Korea "was a failure," calling it a "carrots and no sticks policy that only encouraged bad behavior." He also called on Senator Hillary Clinton (D) to stop blocking legislation that would accelerate missile defense. These remarks were released in a written statement today to compliment a news conference McCain held in Michigan where he was expected to make the same points.
"I would remind Sen. Clinton and other critics of the Bush Administration's policies that the framework agreement of the Clinton Administration was a failure," McCain said. "The Koreans received millions of dollars in energy assistance. They diverted millions in food assistance to the military. And what did the Koreans do? They secretly enriched uranium." He added, "When one carrot didn't work, we offered another." McCain also threw his support behind President Bush and his handling of the North Korea situation, including Bush's calls for action by the UN Security Council. And while he didn't call for immediate military action against North Korean, McCain said "it is obvious" the United States needs a larger active duty Army and Marine Corps.
From NBC's Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Mike Viqueira
For the second time in two weeks, Speaker Denny Hastert addressed the Foley scandal in a press conference. Asked about reports that a former page in 2000 reached out to retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe -- the only openly gay Republican in Congress -- about Foley's behavior, Hastert replied: "All I know is that congressman Kolbe was on the page board... If it was something of a nature that should have been brought forward, then he should have done that."
Hastert maintained that while the situation could have been handled better, he does not feel that he or anyone in his office did anything wrong. "I understood what my staff told me... and I think from that response they've handled it as well as they should. However, you know, in 20-20 hindsight, probably you could do everything a little bit better," he said. "I didn't think anybody at anytime in my office did anything wrong. I found out about these revelations last Friday. That was the first information that I had about it," he added. Per Hastert, investigations in the Foley matter are ongoing and that if anyone is found to have withheld information about it, that person needs to resign.
CONTINUED >>
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Four weeks out, a flood of polling indicates that the Mark Foley scandal has at least temporarily worsened the GOP's already difficult midterm election outlook. After an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken right after the scandal broke showed that news and recent developments in Iraq making voters feel even less favorably disposed toward a GOP majority, a battery of new surveys taken a week or so later depict a party in dire straits and President Bush squarely back below 40% on job approval.
A new Gallup poll for USA Today shows Bush with a 37% job approval rating among adults, and Democrats with a 23-point edge over Republicans among likely voters on its version of the generic congressional ballot test. A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows Bush with a 39% job approval rating among adults, and Democrats with a 13-point edge over Republicans on the generic ballot test among registered voters. A New York Times/CBS survey shows Bush with a 34% job approval among adults, and Democrats leading Republicans on the generic by 14 points among registered voters. A CNN survey shows Bush with a 39% job approval rating among adults, and Democrats leading Republicans by 21 points among likely voters.
CONTINUED >>
The Financial Times: "Although [Bush] delivered a stern warning to North Korea over the consequences of its nuclear test, analysts say the US has few options but to rely on its international leverage, which has been severely weakened by the war in Iraq. Critics say the Bush administration blundered in trying to confront North Korea in late 2002 just as it was committing itself to invading Iraq."
"The story of Monday's announcement of a nuclear test is one of failed policies, neglect and missed opportunities by the Bush administration and its predecessors," the Los Angeles Times says. "It is also the story of how a cagey dictator, Kim Jong Il, took advantage of the United States' entanglement in Iraq to advance his nuclear agenda." The story suggests that normalization of relations between the United States and North Korea "appeared imminent" at the tail end of the Clinton Administration.
CONTINUED >>
The AP reports that the FBI is expected to interview former congressional page Jordan Edmund at an undisclosed location in Oklahoma City today. Edmund "may have received suggestive electronic messages from Foley."
The Los Angeles Times says the House Ethics probe "is shaping up as a classic 'he said/he said.'" The paper also reports that the scandal is "sparking political concerns at the highest levels of the White House, with strategist Karl Rove conceding in a private briefing that the matter 'complicates things' for some Republican candidates who have been linked to the scandal."
CONTINUED >>
Here are the latest polls:
USA Today/Gallup
New York Times/CBS
CNN
Washington Post/ABC
The Washington Post reports that Republican campaign officials now expect to lose "at least seven House seats and as many as 30." The magic number is 15. "GOP officials are urging lawmakers to focus exclusively on local issues and leave it to party leaders to mitigate the Foley controversy by accusing Democrats of trying to politicize it. At the same time, the White House plans to amplify national security issues... after North Korea's reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy... These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease."
CONTINUED >>
"Four weeks before the midterm elections," today's conference "allows Bush to return to the politically safe issue of education and child safety," notes the
AP. "But the federal role in making schools safer is limited because education remains mainly a local matter. The White House chose to host a national sharing of ideas, hoping to seize a moment when people are focused on preventing violence... No new policies are expected; strategies for keeping schools safe are widely known."
Two upcoming court dates will keep the influence-peddling scandal involving disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff in the headlines just before the midterms, says NBC's Joel Seidman. This Friday, former Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio is scheduled to enter formal guilty pleas to accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in trips, meals and other gifts in exchange for taking official action on behalf of Abramoff's clients. And on October 27, former White House official David Safavian is scheduled to be sentenced on lying and obstruction-of-justice charges relating to a golf junket to Scotland he took with Abramoff and Ney.
With jury selection beginning today in the criminal trial of Ohio coin-dealer Tom Noe, a liberal group has released a video linking Noe with several Republicans running for statewide office, the Columbus Dispatch reports.
The AP is the latest to write about the Republican National Committee’s “firewall strategy” of investing in the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Senate races to maintain the party’s majority in that chamber. GOP officials “said the decision has caused friction with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which historically has been the only party entity to run commercials on behalf of its candidates. The move also raises questions about the priority assigned by the RNC to races in other states where Republicans are in jeopardy - Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island among them.”
Six African-American Senate and gubernatorial candidates are on the ballot, "more than at any time in U.S. history; even more unusual is that three of the candidates are Republicans," Bloomberg notes, though only two, both Democrats, seem to have a realistic shot at winning.
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times takes its turn considering how GOP Gov. Mitt Romney's Mormon faith might be a hindrance to a presidential bid. "A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll found that most religious barriers to high office had crumbled, but that 35% of Americans would not vote for a Mormon president."
Romney, "who drew fire for calling the Big Dig a 'tar baby' during an Iowa speech and later saying he was unaware the expression was a racial epithet, will be the featured speaker today at a Detroit leadership summit on improving race relations," reports the Boston Herald. "The speech is politically important for Romney’s presidential hopes, especially now that rival GOP presidential front-runner Virginia Sen. George Allen is under fire for racial comments... and allegations that he slurred blacks in the past."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The top two members of the House Ethics Committee have sent a letter to all members of Congress notifying them that they're expected to come forth to the committee with any and all information regarding inappropriate contact with a page by former Rep. Mark Foley "or any other member of the House." The letter is dated October 6. It also instructs members to contact any House pages they may have sponsored, either currently or in the past.
From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Elizabeth Wilner
A Senior Pentagon official tells NBC there's no active consideration for US military response to the claim by North Korea that it's conducted a test of a nuclear device. "What would you do?" asked the official, who also said the status of US military forces in the region has not been heightened as a result of the North Koreans' claim. This official said that the United States has no plans to conduct a unilateral naval blockade of North Korea, adding that a naval blockade, which is considered an act of war, would have to be conducted internationally in conjunction with the United Nations, and there's no movement by the United Nations to undertake such action.
In a statement this morning, President Bush declared, "Threats will not lead to a brighter future for the North Korean people, nor weaken the resolve of the United States and our allies to achieve the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Today's claim by North Korea serves only to raise tensions, while depriving the North Korean people of the increased prosperity and better relations with the world offered by the implementation of the joint statement of the six-party talks." Some Democrats have seized upon the nuclear test as an example of the "failed policies of the Bush Administration," as Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) put it to reporters while pausing during New York's Columbus Day parade.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Twenty-nine days before election day... Before the news broke of North Korea's nuclear test, it had been hard to imagine what events might pop up over the next four weeks to provide Republicans with some relief from the negative storylines of the Foley scandal and Iraq, where the rate of US troop casualties has shot up. Voters continue to call Iraq their top issue for the midterm elections, and the Foley scandal eclipsed last week's stock market highs and gas price and unemployment lows.
The news out of North Korea, bad as it might be for the Administration's diplomatic efforts there, returns Bush to the bully pulpit -- he'll make a statement at 9:45 am -- and may help Republicans return the focus to the more favorable, broader security debate. For example, Republicans occasionally hit certain Democrats for opposing a missile defense shield. But the ongoing House Ethics Committee and Justice Department probes will keep the Foley scandal in the news.
The White House and GOP leadership continue to stand behind Speaker Dennis Hastert, with President Bush scheduled to appear with Hastert at an open-press fundraising event in Chicago on Thursday. Political observers are watching for signs that the scandal has hurt the party's midterm election outlook on two levels -- in national public opinion surveys, and through less obvious but equally crucial blows to party fundraising and turnout efforts. The latest Newsweek Poll has Bush's job approval rating at 33% and Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot test by 12 points among adults. The poll also finds that more than half of those surveyed think Hastert was aware of Foley's behavior and covered it up. The better clues, though, will come from polls of likely voters, which is where real signs of disillusionment among the GOP base would show up.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post says North Korea's "nuclear test last night may well be regarded as a failure of the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation policy... Yet a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately that they would welcome a... test, regarding it as a clarifying event that would forever end the debate within the Bush administration about whether to solve the problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed to destabilize North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's grip on power."
When Senate Armed Services chair John Warner (R) suggested late last week that the Administration give the Iraqi government 90 days to end the sectarian violence there, it was interpreted as one of the White House's chief stalwarts on Iraq straying off the reservation. But while that may well be true, the White House might not be so averse to everything it's hearing.
CONTINUED >>
On the Sunday shows, Republicans said the Foley matter “will make it more difficult for the GOP to keep control of Congress in November… Republicans, while cautioning that ‘30 days is an eternity’ in the congressional campaigns leading to Election Day on Nov. 7, acknowledge that the scandal makes it difficult to make their own messages heard.”
Prominent social conservative Gary Bauer told Bloomberg that the scandal could weaken turnout among the party's base.
But the New York Times found otherwise when it traveled to southeastern Virginia, a battleground in the midterm elections, to see if the scandal will compel Christian conservatives to abandon the GOP. “...[M]any said the episode only reinforced their reasons to vote for their two Republican incumbents in neck-and-neck re-election fights, Representative Thelma Drake and Senator George Allen” -- because they blame Foley, not the party.
CONTINUED >>
There's a growing debate within the GOP on when Hastert's office was first informed about the alleged inappropriate behavior by Foley. A former congressional aide says that Kirk Fordham is telling the truth about informing the House GOP leadership in 2004, per NBC's Jim Popkin. This former aide, providing some confirmation of Fordham's timeline, had not yet been contacted by the FBI or the House Ethics Committee as of yesterday. His statements challenge Hastert's version of events and push back by about a year the first time Hastert's office was made aware of a problem with Foley and male pages.
Fordham is scheduled to testify before the House Ethics Committee this week, says USA Today, which also reports that "White House press secretary Tony Snow is speaking at a Hastert fundraiser Saturday in Illinois."
CONTINUED >>
CNBC's Patti Domm advises that oil will continue to be a dominant feature of this week's markets. The stock market will focus on earnings; the first major third-quarter earnings will start rolling out tomorrow with Alcoa. General Electric reports on Friday.
Gas prices have fallen about 75 cents below their high in August, Reuters reports, “but prices look to be headed back up, an analyst warned.”
The Saturday Wall Street Journal previewed another event on Bush's schedule this week: The White House will release the final deficit tally for the fiscal year ended September 30. "The news will be good: The deficit is likely to come in well below the previous year's $318 billion, perhaps as low as $250 billion... That will allow President Bush to boast that he has met his goal of halving the deficit... ahead of schedule." Still, the Journal says, "[d]espite the good news about last year -- largely the result of a remarkable 12% surge in tax receipts from individuals and corporations that overwhelmed a nearly 9% increase in spending -- the smart money says the deficit is very likely to get deeper from here."
In general, it's not a good time for lawmakers on the ballot to be found having broken ethics rules. The AP reported yesterday that Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) failed to disclose stock options from high-tech companies on whose boards he sat, and "also asked the Army to help another business that gave him similar options... In interviews, Allen and his staff sought to play down his corporate dealings, saying they were a good learning experience but did not lead to extraordinary riches - except for a quarter-million-dollar windfall from" one stock. Allen and his Democratic opponent, Jim Webb, are scheduled to debate in Richmond this evening.
Late Friday, word came that Susan Ralston, a top aide to Karl Rove who had previously work for Jack Abramoff, had resigned. "As Rove's top staffer and a special assistant to the president, Ralston becomes the closest aide to Bush to leave in a scandal that has so far enveloped lobbyists, lawmakers, Capitol Hill aides and an administration procurement official while, until now, sparing the inner sanctum of the White House," said the Saturday Los Angeles Times.
CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal examines how candidates in top races are putting potentially damaging video of their opponents on YouTube.
The Washington Post looks at how Democratic candidates in upper South states and districts are showing promise "by shrewdly combining biography, personal style and artful positioning on divisive social issues."
The Sacramento Bee says the Foley scandal is even reverberating in the congressional contest in CALIFORNIA between Rep. John Doolittle (R) and challenger Charlie Brown (D). Doolittle, the paper notes, has criticized Foley’s behavior but has refused to return past campaign donations he’s received from Foley.
CONTINUED >>
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is picking up momentum in South Carolina, where conservative Republicans "want to derail John McCain’s straight talk express," The State wrote yesterday. "Their goal is to head off McCain at the pass - meaning South Carolina - and keep him from winning the Republican presidential nomination."
The Wall Street Journal looks at how the oh-eighters are out campaigning hard for midterm election candidates. "The exercise isn't just about helping others."
Sen. Barack Obama (D) raises money today for Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar in Minneapolis, MN and for Senate candidate Sherrod Brown in Cleveland. And Gen. Wesley Clark campaigned in Iowa over the weekend, where he called for a new direction in the Iraq war that can only come with a new president, reports the Des Moines Register. "In a conversation with Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Ia., and Rep. Jim Oberstar, D-Minn., he pounded a fist into one hand when making the point, telling them he would do 'everything I can' to change the course of the war.'"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Libby Leist and Ken Strickland
On the heels of Senate Armed Services Committee chair John Warner's call yesterday for the Bush Administration to give the Iraqi government 90 days to reduce the sectarian violence, two Democratic colleagues of Warner's have stepped forward to shed some light on this development.
Carl Levin, ranking Democrat on Armed Services, said that Administration officials -- including President Bush himself -- are encouraging him and one other Senator to publicly make the case that the Iraqis have "a couple of months to resolve their difficulties and to reduce the violence." But Levin thinks that message would be "100 times" more effective coming Bush. "It's the Administration that's got to deliver that message. And the effect will be to force [Iraqi leaders] to take hold of their nation and to resolve their problems politically," said Levin. "I believe within the next few months that the Administration is going to finally reach this point... and I think that [Zalmay] Khalizad, our ambassador, already has."
Potential presidential candidate and Sen. Joe Biden (D), meanwhile, told reporters this afternoon that he's heard from top Senate Republicans that the Administration may eventually rely on the Iraq Study Group, led by James Baker and Lee Hamilton, as a means for changing course in Iraq while not appearing to cave into Democratic pressure. Biden, who has testified before the group, said he expects that by the end of the year, they will propose a strategy that differs from the Administration's current plan. He offered that he's "absolutely convinced and certain that there are very serious people" in the State Department and at the Pentagon "who in fact think something along the lines that we're talking about has to take place." He added that he hadn't heard from high-level Administration officials directly that they'd use the Iraq Study Group to change course, but that "several Republican Senators" told him that.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Although most other Republicans are now rallying around Speaker Dennis Hastert, a Republican candidate running for Senate in the deep-blue state of New Jersey -- Tom Kean Jr. -- is calling for Hastert to resign from his leadership position in the wake of the Foley scandal, making him (to the best of our knowledge) the first high-profile GOP candidate to demand this. Hastert "is the head of the institution and this happened on his watch," Kean said in a recently released statement. "This disturbing situation is another reason why the public holds the Congress in such low esteem."
Kean, of course, is running against a member of Congress: incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who has been dogged by allegations of ethical wrongdoing. Kean is also running for office in a state dominated by Democrats -- but Republicans view the race as perhaps their best Senate pickup opportunity this year.
From CNBC's Steve Liesman
The biggest news in the September jobs report is not the underwhelming 51,000 jobs created last month, or the upward revision of the August number to 188,000 new jobs from 128,000. The big story is that a previously unknown 810,000 new jobs were actually added to US payrolls for the year through March 2006. This is the biggest revision to payrolls in at least the past decade, and possibly ever.
This was a massive whiff by the jobs counters at the Labor Department. In today's hyper-computerized world of advanced statistics, a 45% upward revision to any data, let alone the most important data series the US government prints, is nothing less than a scandal. From an economics perspective, it's as big a mistake as the CIA missing the WMD call in Iraq.
The reasons for the miss are complicated and even poorly understood within the government. But suffice it to say, it should prompt an urgent rethinking about how we measure job growth. If we're not spending enough on data collection, we need to spend more. If we're not allocating resources correctly, we need to reallocate. Getting the jobs numbers right -- or at least close to correct -- is critical. Markets, Fed policymakers, and individual investors all rely on these numbers to make decisions. It's not way to run the most advanced economy on the face of the earth.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Thirty-two days before election day... The House GOP leadership nearly went off the rails in the last 48 hours or so over the Mark Foley scandal, but seems to be in the process of completing the turn. Top Republicans have united behind Speaker Dennis Hastert and are lauding the steps being taken to ensure that a Foley-like situation doesn't happen again. Hastert and other Republicans continue to blame Democrats and the media for the eruption of the scandal, a tactic that might help reinvigorate a dispirited GOP base. The White House appears to think the storm has blown over, judging from President Bush's phone call to Hastert last night after Bush avoided taking reporters' questions at his events all yesterday.
Assessing the damage to the GOP's midterm election outlook will take some time. At the least, the scandal probably has cost the party Foley's House seat and has landed Rep. Tom Reynolds, chair of the House GOP campaign committee, in a real battle for re-election because of his early knowledge of the Foley e-mails. Democrats will try to keep up the pressure on Republican candidates over contributions from Foley and whether they'll vote for Hastert for Speaker. But the GOP's immediate, twofold challenge is to show the public they're taking the matter seriously and get to talking about something else -- fast.
CONTINUED >>
"Several GOP lawmakers in tough races said voters are not reacting as harshly to the scandal as they first feared, buying Hastert even more room to save his job," says the Washington Post. "Still, lawmakers are privately furious with how Hastert and other leaders have handled the scandal... And many expect that the worst is still to come."
A Wall Street Journal story leads with Reynolds' plight in his Buffalo district and the party's consideration of "two separate paths. One is for the party to hang tough and blame Democrats for the timing of the disclosures. The other is to take full responsibility and move on -- while presumably sacrificing a top leader, like Mr. Hastert... The hang-tough strategy is being urged by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, conservative talk-show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh, and increasingly, according to several Republicans, by party Chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political advisers."
CONTINUED >>
Hastert had hoped to bring in former FBI director Louis Freeh to head up "an overhaul of the page program," NBC's Mike Viqueira reports, but House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi objected, saying that's not good enough, according to a top House Democratic aide. Pelosi yesterday called on the Ethics Committee to release a preliminary report next week.
As of Thursday afternoon, as a senior federal law enforcement official told NBC's Pete Williams, investigators had yet to find evidence that federal laws were violated. In part, that's be cause of how federal statutes have been written. In part, it's because the age of consent in Washington, DC, is 16 (at least, it was during the time period in question here). And in part, it's an issue of the kind of behavior that federal prosecutors have considered a prosecutable violation in the past. NBC's Jim Popkin reports that FBI agents from the DC field office spent several hours yesterday interviewing Kirk Fordham, Foley's former chief of staff.
CONTINUED >>
Gas prices will probably bottom out above $2 per gallon, says USA Today.
Previewing Bush's economic remarks today, Bloomberg says his "bid to win his party credit for an improving economy" is "given new urgency by Republicans' difficulty in making moral values and the war on terror central issues in the mid-term elections."
The Los Angeles Times, also noting Bush's turn to education and the economy, says "neither topic is a sure winner, even as he suggests they are reason to vote Republican in the upcoming elections... Allan B. Hubbard, chairman of the White House National Economic Council,... told reporters Thursday that despite the slowdown in housing prices, the still-high price of gasoline, and the ongoing problems of the Big 3 auto manufacturers, voters had reason to be optimistic about the economy."
CONTINUED >>
Research by the Associated Press, which counts the votes on election night for the media (including NBC), indicates that voters are in for a long election night, NBC's Sheldon Gawiser advises. While it is normal for about 5% of voting equipment to be replaced each election cycle, this time the changes required by the Help America Vote Act will impact most of the voters as 60% of the voting jurisdictions will have some new equipment.
A number of the equipment suppliers are so overwhelmed by the volume of new business that they cannot support the installations. In Illinois, vote tabulation equipment problems prevented complete vote counts until six days after the state's primary. In Ohio and Maryland, voting problems resulted in voting locations staying open for an additional two hours during their primaries. It took Cuyahoga County in Ohio six days to count absentee voters, and in Florida, new equipment could not track accurately what proportion of the votes had actually been counted. In fact, Gawiser notes, things are so bad that a number of counties have reverted to counting ballots by hand.
CONTINUED >>
NBC's Ken Strickland notes the significance of Sen. John Warner, a longtime party stalwart, differing with Bush on the war. Yesterday, after returning from his eighth trip there, Warner put some distance between himself and the Administration by also saying parts of Iraqi government aren't meeting their "fundamental responsibilities" and "better pull their act together." He acknowledged that some progress is being made, but most of his comments were critical of the overall situation in Iraq, specifically about the increased levels of violence and the dramatic shortcomings within the government there. He said, "It seems to me the situation is drifting sideways."
Then he said, "But I assure you in two or three months, if this thing hasn't come to fruition and this level of violence is not under control and this government able to function, I think it's the responsibility of our government internally to determine 'is there a change of course we should take?' And I won't take off the table any option at this time." US military and government agencies "are doing their very, very best," Warner said, but the Iraqi government is not carrying their weight. "You do not see them taking the levers of sovereignty and pulling and pushing them and doing what is necessary to bring about a situation in Iraq whereby the people are able to live... and have a sense of confidence in their government that they're going forward," Warner said.
In a new book, “Soldier: The Life of Colin Powell,” Powell’s wife accuses the Bush Administration of using her husband’s prestige to sell the Iraq war to the American people.
The New York Times examines former President Clinton getting into campaign mode, noting that his schedule shows him making 40 campaign appearances in 16 states. And that’s on top of 40 events he’s done since the spring. (One thing to keep in mind, as the Hotline’s Chuck Todd wrote a while back: In 2004, Clinton stumped for seven Democrats, and all of them ended up losing.)
Like the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon polls released earlier this week, a series of USA Today/Gallup polls show that Democrats stand a real chance to taking control of the Senate. The paper also provides the lay of the land in the nation's governor races.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Changing the subject back to Iraq... Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R) today told reporters that if the Iraqi government can't reduce the sectarian violence within the next 90 days, the US should consider a "change of course" there. Warner is a longtime party stalwart who rarely differs with the president on the Iraq war. But today, after returning from his eighth trip there, he created some distance with the Administration by also saying parts of Iraqi government aren't meeting their "fundamental responsibilities" and "better pull their act together."
Warner acknowledged that some progress was being made. But most of his comments were critical of the overall situation in Iraq, specifically about the increased levels of violence and the dramatic shortcomings within the government there. He said, "It seems to me the situation is drifting sideways." And then he said this:
"But I assure you in two or three months, if this thing hasn't come to fruition and this level of violence is not under control and this government able to function, I think it's the responsibility of our government internally to determine 'is there a change of course we should take?' And I won't take off the table any option at this time."
From NBC's Huma Zaidi and Elizabeth Wilner
House Speaker Dennis Hastert said today that while he is "deeply sorry" over the page scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley (R) and that Republicans are "ultimately" taking responsibility, he will not resign his post because he did not do anything wrong. The Speaker insisted that he did not know of the problem until last Friday despite accusations that his office was informed years ago. "The fact is, I don't know who knew what when," Hastert said.
At a press conference outside his office in Illinois, Hastert announced that he has called for an investigation into the allegations and has turned the issue over to the House Ethics Committee, the FBI, the Department of Justice and the state of Florida. The Speaker also announced that a toll-free number has been set-up for people to leave confidential information regarding inappropriate contact with pages or discuss concerns. However, Hastert inadvertently inverted two of the numbers when releasing the tip-line information. The correct toll-free number is 1-866-348-0481. Interestingly, Hastert refrained from using Foley's name during his press conference.
Hastert also quelled rumors of his resignation in an interview with the Chicago Tribune, published this morning. Yet the debate rages on whether Hastert should resign. One senior Republican in Congress told MSNBC's David Shuster that he admires Hastert's decision not to resign, but that Hastert has now put Republicans in a "difficult position" because their Democratic challengers will pose this awkward question to them: "Do you support Dennis Hastert remaining as speaker or not?" But another GOP House member tells First Read that if Hastert resigns, "there's no alternative. There's another set of questions waiting for [Majority Leader John] Boehner. Better to draw the line here."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
In a 1:00 pm ET press conference today, House Speaker Dennis Hastert is expected to take responsibility for the handling of the scandal and go on offense against Democrats. Hastert has been suggesting in recent media interviews that Democrats were the source of the Mark Foley story. He is not expected to announce his resignation. He'll hold the press conference at his district office in Batavia, IL.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
As the House Republican ranks fall into total disarray, the White House is keeping pretty quiet and focusing on, of all things, No Child Left Behind. President Bush offered a statement of support for Speaker Dennis Hastert on Tuesday, but his spokesperson also told reporters that Bush had not spoken with Hastert in recent days. V
ice President Cheney's office isn't providing any new statements, but points to Cheney's comments to the pool reporter on his fundraising trip: "I'm a huge Denny Hastert fan - I think he's a great speaker... And it makes no sense at all for him to think about stepping down."
Meanwhile, Hastert said on Laura Ingraham's talk-radio show this morning that he did in fact tell leading conservative Paul Weyrich that he would step down for good if the scandal becomes all about him. At the same time, he suggested that it wouldn't be in the GOP's interest for their leaders to leave, making way for a Democratic sweep. "I said look it, if this thing - if this got to a point where it was all about me and I have to explain everything, yeah I'd step down. But I said, on the other hand, if I fold up my tent and leave and others have to fold up their tents and leave, that they would, uh, then where does that leave us?"
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Thirty-three days before election day... The wheels on the House GOP bus are wobbling. Two members of the leadership have raised the possibility that the Clerk of the House failed to heed warnings about then-Rep. Mark Foley's behavior. One outgoing top aide suggested the same about Speaker Dennis Hastert's office. The aide, who quit yesterday because of his role in the scandal, charged on his way out that he had warned Hastert's office about Foley before 2005. Then came expressions of concern from Majority Leader John Boehner and House GOP Conference chair Deborah Pryce about rumors that Foley once showed up drunk in front of the House page dorm at night and was stopped by the US Capitol Police. Both members wrote to the Clerk of the House requesting an investigation. A third member of the leadership, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, is saying he would have handled things differently.
Speculation about Hastert's ability to withstand this scandal, at least through the midterm elections, has exploded. If he was on tenterhooks yesterday morning, his position seems more precarious now -- even as he tells the Chicago Tribune he's not resigning.
CONTINUED >>
"Fordham’s allegation brings the circle of those who had been told about Foley’s behavior one step closer to the Speaker’s chair," Roll Call says. "Palmer has been Hastert’s friend and top aide for more than 20 years."
The Los Angeles Times reports that Fordham's attorney "said Fordham did not know whether Palmer provided the information to Hastert. But the lawyer said Fordham did know that Palmer met with Foley."
The Roll Call story also notes that "a spokeswoman for GOP candidate Joy Padgett, who is running to replace Rep. Bob Ney in Ohio’s 18th district, said Hastert’s office contacted their campaign Wednesday and canceled his appearance at an Oct. 9 fundraiser due to 'scheduling conflicts.'" Yesterday, vulnerable Rep. Ron Lewis of Kentucky canceled a fundraiser with Hastert.
CONTINUED >>
