October 2006 - Posts
From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
"Who would have thought that Mankato, MN would be the center of the political universe?" asked an amused Bryan Anderson, the campaign spokesman for Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R), who is locked in a tough re-election fight against Democrat Tim Walz.
"Come join Tim Walz in welcoming Senator Kerry to Minnesota's First District!" says the Walz release. The suddenly much more newsworthy Kerry is the guest star at a Walz rally in Mankato at 12 noon Wednesday. Walz, a harsh critic of the Iraq war, has repeatedly invoked his own service in the Army National Guard as a candidate credential.
The Kerry-Walz rally will come just an hour after Sen. John McCain -- fiercely critical of Kerry's comment about poor academic performers ending up in uniform in Iraq --appears in Mankato to whip up support for the GOP ticket headed by Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
Walz campaign spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery said Walz is on the road in the far western part of the district and has not yet commented on the Kerry furor. At this hour, the Kerry event is still scheduled to proceed as planned.
From NBC's Mark Murray
President Bush will be the next Republican to weigh in on Kerry's comments when speaks at a rally for Georgia congressional candidate Mac Collins (R) later this afternoon. The White House just released advance excerpts of Bush's remarks -- which is unusual for this kind of rally, and which seems intended to further stoke this controversy. Per the excerpts, Bush will say: "[Kerry’s] suggestion that the men and women of our military are somehow uneducated is insulting and shameful. Our troops did not enlist because they did not study hard in school or do their homework. The men and women who serve in our all-volunteer Armed Forces are plenty smart and are serving because they are patriots – and Senator Kerry owes them an apology."
What do you think? Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse? Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Mike Viqueira
At a hastily arranged news conference, John Kerry didn't back down from his earlier remarks that those who don't study hard or do well in school could "get stuck in Iraq" (although, as we mention below, a Kerry source explains that the senator was referring to Bush, not to US armed forces). Replying to Sen. John McCain's demand that Kerry issue an apology, Kerry asked why McCain hasn't demanded apologies from the White House, Vice President Dick Cheney, or Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld for the US struggles in Iraq. "What we need to do is debate the real issues," he said. "America is sick and tired of this kind of politics."
But that hasn't stopped Republicans from piling on. Speaker Dennis Hastert -- who's experienced his fair share of controversy from the Foley scandal -- condemned Kerry's comments. "Our soldiers make the ultimate sacrifice in order to protect America, and they deserve nothing less than our utmost respect. I urge Senator Kerry to apologize immediately for these insulting remarks." In addition, GOP Senate candidates Mike Bouchard of Michigan and John Spencer of New York have issued statements criticizing Kerry. Interestingly, however, we haven't Republican candidates in more competitive -- or even the GOP campaign committees -- also jump on Kerry.
What do you think? Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse? Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Huma Zaidi
White House press secretary Tony Snow and Sen. John Kerry (D) are engaged in a war of words over comments Kerry made at a campaign event in Los Angeles yesterday for California gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides. Both might have a little base-politicking in mind, Snow for 2006 and Kerry for 2008.
Kerry, who was speaking to a group of students, warned them that those who don't study hard or do well in school could "get stuck in Iraq." At today's White House press briefing, Snow said Kerry should apologize to US troops and their families for insinuating that those who serve in the military are not smart. "What Senator Kerry ought to do first is apologize to the troops," Snow said. "This is an absolute insult. And I'm a little astonished that he didn't figure it out already." Snow was clearly prepped and probably looking to fire up the Republican faithful with attacks on Kerry, one of their favorite punching bags.
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
One week out... The final pre-election NBC/Wall Street Journal poll will be released tonight on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Per the poll, President Bush's job approval rating on the economy is 46%, up from 44% two weeks ago and continuing its upward trend since September -- presumably due to lower gas prices, a booming stock market, and the White House's intense focus on the economy over the past few weeks. The rest of the poll will be released at 6:30 pm ET.
CNBC dissects that economic job-approval rating and weighs in on what the looming midterm elections could mean for business and the economy with a day-long series of reports today. Scheduled guests include possible presidential contenders Sen. Barack Obama (D), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R), and Gov. Mitt Romney (R); House campaign committee chairs Tom Reynolds (R) and Rahm Emanuel (D); Senate Finance Committee chair Charles Grassley; Sens. Mike DeWine (R) and Ted Kennedy (D); and endangered Rep. Steve Chabot (R) of Ohio and his Democratic opponent John Cranley. Also in the spotlight: what Wall Street firms, investment gurus and big CEOs are saying about the state of the economy and how they expect the election to turn out.
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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has updated its ratings, calling 12 GOP-held seats more vulnerable now than they had been, including moving eight seats to the toss-up column.
"In the House, GOP strategists privately concede that a half-dozen to 10 seats are already lost," Roll Call reports. "But they say the other competitive two- to three-dozen races are close - even closer than publicly available polls suggest in some cases. Democrats, meanwhile, are working to tamp down expectations for the size of the party’s gains in the House, saying that if they do pick up the minimum 15 seats needed..., the final tally could be much smaller than is currently being forecast by most public polling and pundits."
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The New York Times writes that at yesterday’s rally in Texas, Bush was greeted like a man "whose public approval ratings are 73 percent, not 37 percent… The back-to-back rallies created just the image White House strategists are seeking for the president in the waning days of the campaign: that of a confident leader, surrounded by adoring supporters.”
The Washington Times notices Bush suddenly talking about judicial nominees, border security, and a gay-marriage ban yesterday -- "themes that have been absent for most of the election season, but which he is now using to energize the party's base... White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said themes were added because Mr. Bush is speaking to different audiences at the rallies and said this stump speech will carry Mr. Bush through Election Day."
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"November marks the five-year anniversary of the end of the last recession and the beginning of the latest U.S. economic expansion," notes USA Today. "But whether the USA will have another five years of economic growth without sliding into recession - at least matching the record 10-year expansion that ended in 2001 - is an issue that sharply divides economists."
Gas prices are up slightly this week for the first time since early August.
Bloomberg points out that almost nowhere do candidates seem to be talking about the looming alternative minimum tax problem, which will "hit more than 20 million households next year, some with incomes as low as $50,000... Most candidates are avoiding the subject because the cost of stopping the tax increase would obstruct key elements of their agendas... Those candidates who do mention the minimum tax offer few specifics for fixing it."
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USA Today reports that Arab governments "are looking for change in U.S. policy in the Middle East after the midterm elections, hoping a politically weakened President Bush will talk with Iran and Syria, show greater interest in the Palestinians and find a way out of the crisis in Iraq... Non-democratic but pro-U.S. governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan now largely shrug off the administration's campaign for strong steps toward democracy."
Before leaving for Georgia today, Bush meets with the special envoy for Sudan. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
The Washington Times says "a new breed of politician has emerged: former Republicans challenging Republican incumbents." Among them: Virginia Senate nominee Jim Webb and a handful of now-Democratic House candidates who could very well win.
Roll Call reports that "House Republican leaders are considering postponing the scheduled Nov. 15 leadership contests" if they lose the majority. "There is no contingency date set, aides said, but Republican Conference rules do dictate that elections must be held by Dec. 20."
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The Wall Street Journal looks at Democratic efforts to microtarget. "Democrats are playing catch-up to Republicans, whose use of microtargeting in 2004 energized millions of new voters who backed President Bush... Until recently, Democrats, who had long relied on the old get-out-the-vote muscle of organized labor, were skeptical of building voter databases."
This Saturday, the AFL-CIO says it will kick off its "Final Four" get-out-the-vote blitz -- in which 100,000 union volunteers will knock on doors, work the phones, and reach out to fellow union members at the worksite during the final four days of the election.
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A Roll Call editorial notes that five states whose polls close by 8:00 pm ET -- Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- "have been placed by the nonpartisan group electionline.org on a list of 10 'states to watch.' In these states, new voting machines, voter identification requirements, out-of-date voter registration lists or sheer numbers of voters may cause trouble."
Top US voting machine manufacturer Smartmatic and subsidiary Sequoia Voting Systems are being investigated by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, at Smartmatic's request, for possibly problematic ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. "A breakdown in the use of Sequoia voting machines in the March primary in Chicago gave rise to questions about Smartmatic's corporate structure," says the Washington Post.
"The government has 30 days to issue its first ruling on whether the Sequoia purchase compromises U.S. national security by giving a foreign government undue influence on U.S. elections. The investigation can be extended by another 45 days, if a U.S. government agency requests it," reports the Miami Herald.
In CALIFORNIA, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and challenger Phil Angelides (D) have both worn their “eco-credentials on their sleeves,” per the San Francisco Chronicle. “Being a green candidate in California is almost a necessity, as polls show overwhelming majorities favor things like banning offshore oil drilling and requiring automakers to build cleaner-burning cars.”
Some post-election reading to look forward to: The Washington Post leads its Style section profile of FLORIDA GOP Senate nominee Katherine Harris with the news that she's "writing a tell-all about the many people who have wronged her. This includes, but is not necessarily limited to: the Republican leaders who didn't want her to run, the press that has covered her troubled campaign, and the many staffers who have quit her employ, whom she accuses of colluding with her opponent. She is vague about what, precisely, makes her a victim, but she says she has it all documented."
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
The first wave election of the 24-7 news era is now just eight days away. Cable and the Internet are flooded with coverage and forecasts, and Democrats hold wide advantages on certain polling measures that have proved predictive in the past. But there's no surefire way to extrapolate from the polls just how big the wave is going to be. For once, the Bush White House is setting expectations that can safely be considered their best-case scenario: even narrower GOP majorities in the House and Senate. At the other end of the spectrum, analysts figure that gerrymandering and a Republican fundraising and GOTV advantages would cap possible Democratic gains in the House at around 35-40 seats. In the Senate, the floor for Democrats appears to be four seats and the pool of competitive races seems small enough to limit their gains to a maximum of seven.
The latest Newsweek poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 53%-39% among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot test. President Bush's job approval rating is 37% among registered voters. Late to the stump (his first big rally of the cycle was on Saturday), Bush has a fairly light travel schedule this week, at least as of today. Campaigning against terrorism and taxes, he will rally support for: two challengers to House Democrats in Georgia; the candidate seeking to win resigned Rep. Tom DeLay's seat; Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, who has Abramoff issues; and a couple of candidates in Nevada who also have ethical issues. In one break for Republicans on the scandal front, the House Ethics Committee is not expected to release a report on the Foley probe before election day.
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One of the more striking things about this election cycle is just how few Democratic seats are in play. The party stands a decent chance of keeping every one of their House seats. That said, Bush travels to Georgia today and tomorrow to help his party try to topple two vulnerable Democrats. Today he's in Statesboro, GA for a rally with former Rep. Max Burns (R), who's challenging incumbent John Barrow (D). After that, Bush heads to former Rep. Tom DeLay's hometown of Sugar Land, TX to attend a rally for write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R), who's waging an uphill battle for DeLay's seat. On Tuesday, Bush returns to Georgia for a rally for former Rep. Mac Collins (R), who's taking on Rep. Jim Marshall (D). Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue and Sens. Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson will attend.
One senior member of the political press corps e-mailed First Read that Bush's shrinking travel schedule reminded him of the closing days of the 1992 presidential campaign. "I was with Bush the elder and we kept going back to the same handful of places over and over... because they were the only places he could still get a crowd."
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As we wrote above, the GOP's sharp attacks on the Democratic candidates for the Tennessee and Virginia Senate seats will be remembered as a pair of efforts to push Southern voters' buttons on race and values. First Read asked strategists familiar with the internal polling on both sides what they're seeing to indicate whether or not these attacks have been effective.
"In both cases, voters will have a choice," e-mailed Pete Brodnitz, who polls for both Ford and Virginia nominee Jim Webb. "Do they vote for the change that they clearly would like to see in the direction of the country, or are they more concerned that the Democrat is a risky choice because of the GOP attacks. In both states," he asserts, "the GOP has over-reached with personal attacks that may or may not help mobilize the GOP candidate's base at the expense of their ability to reach out to Independents and moderates who are turned off by the GOP attempts at character assassination. In both cases, the Republican message is also focused on sex and I think a lot of voters are going to be offended... when they are watching television with their children..."
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The White House continues to emphasize that progress is being made toward a transfer of responsibility to Iraqi security forces, despite troublesome comments from Prime Minister Maliki. The US death toll in Iraq this month has hit 100, "making the month the fourth-deadliest for the US military since the 2003 invasion," per the Financial Times.
The court trying Saddam Hussein now might delay its verdict by a few days, a move that would shift it past the midterm elections. “The court had been due to deliver a verdict on Nov. 5.”
The Washington Times runs the first of a five-part series previewing life under a Democrat-run House, focusing generally on expected battles over security issues and increased Democratic oversight.
Vice President Cheney gives an interview to CNBC's Larry Kudlow today; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice does Kudlow tomorrow. CNBC's Patti Domm notes that the markets have been shrugging off the war in Iraq. (Voters obviously have not.) This is also a big week for economic data, Domm says. Consumer confidence, auto sales, and chain store sales will be capped off by the October jobs report due out on Friday.
Bloomberg looks at the GOP's problem as they try to get voters to focus on positive developments in the economy: "Middle-class voters... aren't inclined to celebrate upbeat economic statistics... The reason, some analysts say, is the gap between a statistically strong five-year expansion and strapped family budgets... The skeptical mood among such voters has undermined the strategy outlined by" Karl Rove in a May 15 speech in which he "said then that the continued strength of the economy would override the 'sour' national mood created by the Iraq war."
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In his Sunday column, Bob Novak wrote that Speaker Dennis Hastert’s friends are urging him “to seek the top Republican post-election leadership position, whether or not the party retains control of the House Nov. 7, so that his long public career does not end marred by the Mark Foley scandal.” Hastert told Sean Hannity yesterday that the GOP will keep its majority and he will run for Speaker again.
The Sunday Washington Post reported, "Based on polling, Republican strategists say a half-dozen seats, including open seats in Colorado, Arizona and Ohio, appear unwinnable. Six other races... are looking dire but not hopeless. Most worrisome, GOP strategists say, is that 20 or more additional Republican incumbents are essentially tied or holding very small leads -- a danger zone for a sitting member of Congress in a tough political environment."
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The House Ethics Committee has finished interviewing key witnesses in the Foley probe, but no report is expected before the elections -- not even an interim report. The committee also declined to ask retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe to testify, despite his awareness of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages as early as 2000.
House Majority Leader John Boehner said on ABC yesterday, "'I believe strongly that the speaker - neither the speaker, myself or anyone knew of the sexually explicit instant messages'" sent by Foley to pages. "'If any one of us would have known about this, we would have dragged him out of there by his tie.'"
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The Los Angeles Times profiles House Minority Leader -- and possible incoming Speaker -- Nancy Pelosi from the perspective of how this national-level pol fits, and doesn't fit her San Francisco district.
CONNECTICUT Sen. Joe Lieberman's independent bid is getting a boost from Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg's political organization, which views itself as the last big independent campaign effort, is pitching in. And Bloomberg is scheduled to endorse Lieberman today. Democratic nominee Ned Lamont is once again trying to go on the offensive against Lieberman on the Iraq war with a new ad featuring former (and possibly future) presidential candidate Wes Clark. In the ad, Clark asserts that "Joe Lieberman introduced the resolution authorizing the war in Iraq. That was a mistake… Re-elect Joe Lieberman? Well, there’s a word for it: mistake.”
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From NBC's Gena Fitzgerald
What a week for any viewer watching political ads this week, or netsurfers trying to go to the web to find out what candidates stand for. National polls keep telling us over and over that it’s Iraq that matters most to voters. Apparently the campaigns haven’t gotten that message. The focus this week is sex, sleaze, disabilities, and dirt. What's a voter to do?
Let’s see, we started the week with one of the most unforgettable ads in recent years. Democrat Harold Ford, an African American congressman, is running for Senate in Tennessee against a white Republican named Bob Corker. The ad was paid for by the RNC.
In it, a young blonde actress pretends to have met Ford at a Playboy club and urges Ford to call her. It’s clear from her tone that it isn’t about the 2007 Budget either. The NAACP said the ad "plays to pre-existing prejudices about African American men and white women."
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Eleven days to go... President Bush today looks past election day, meeting with the NATO Secretary General as prep for the NATO summit in Latvia next month. Others in the Administration will contend with a GDP figure showing a much lower rate of growth than expected, unwelcome news amid the Administration's big push to focus voters on a strong US economy. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will appear on CNBC later this morning.
The latest sign of how the once formidable Bush-Cheney campaign team's effectiveness has been curbed by their poll standing is how much their itineraries are starting to blur together. They're also overlapping with the travel schedule of Laura Bush, who remains the White House's universal donor, publicly popular enough to be able to boost even the GOP's most vulnerable candidates.
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The White House continues to try to shoot down media accounts of disputes between the Administration and Prime Minister Maliki over the way forward in Iraq. In his own efforts to do so, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ranted at the media yesterday, saying they "ought to just back off" questions about a timetable for US troop withdrawal from Iraq, reports NBC's Courtney Kube. Rumsfeld went on to say, "I wouldn't waste a lot of newsprint trying to find daylight between everybody on this or try to find things that are wrong with it."
Linguist George Lakoff, who has advised Democrats on political language, argues in a New York Times op-ed that Bush’s change in rhetoric on the Iraq war -- by abandoning “stay the course” -- won’t work. “To keep staying the course, given obvious reality, is to get deeper into disaster in Iraq, while not staying the course is to abandon one’s moral authority as a conservative. Either way, the president loses.”
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The Washington Post looks at the proliferation of nasty attack ads, including the RNC ad against Democrat Harold Ford in the Tennessee Senate race, which has been pulled but won't quite seem to go away. "While negative campaigning is a tradition in American politics, this year's version in many races has an eccentric shade, filled with allegations of moral bankruptcy and sexual perversion. At the same time, the growth of 'independent expenditures' by national parties and other groups has allowed candidates to distance themselves from distasteful attacks on their opponents." The story notes that "most harsh Democratic attacks have focused on the policies and performance of the GOP majority, trying to link Republicans to Bush, the unpopular war in Iraq and" famous Hill scandals.
The Wall Street Journal reports on how some candidates are trying to break through the barrage of negative ads with emotional spots (like the Michael J. Fox ads) or quirky ones (like Maryland GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele's).
Bloomberg looks at the logistical challenges confronting Republicans in their efforts to retain the seats of resigned Reps. Mark Foley and Tom DeLay. What the article doesn't say is that both districts are Republican-leaning, so if the party loses these seats next month, then presumably they could win them back next cycle.
Leading with House Appropriations chair Jerry Lewis, the Wall Street Journal examines how it has become routine for "House members to accept meals from private interests on official government trips abroad," even though it's against House rules.
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Tomorrow, Laura Bush campaigns in New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.
En route from Michigan to Washington last night, Karl Rove appeared in the press area of Air Force One bearing a tray of chocolate-covered caramels that he'd purchased during Bush's earlier stop at a candy store. Per the pool report, "He was asked for his November 7 report. 'Victory, victory, victory,' he said, flashing a two-finger 'V' sign and smiling. Then he said, 'I'm here as the candyman, not the prognosticator.'"
Looking to gin up the base while in Iowa yesterday, Bush commented on the New Jersey gay marriage decision at a fundraiser for House candidate Jeff ("Dave") Lamberti: "Yesterday in New Jersey we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage. I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and I believe... I believe it's a sacred institution and it's critical to the health of our society and the well being of families and it must be defended."
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ExxonMobil and Shell scored huge quarterly profits again, but even though some Democratic lawmakers issued written statements expressing outrage, with gas prices so much lower, the public isn't seething like they used to.
A Wall Street Journal analysis shows that "[m]ore than one-quarter of top corporate political donors have stepped up their giving slightly to Democrats, in an apparent effort to hedge their bets... While the percentage of new giving isn't large, it represents unexpected cash for the Democrats in a year when they have managed to stay financially competitive with, or surpass, their Republican adversaries."
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USA Today has a bunch of stories about the vote. On early voting: "State officials report that in-person early voting appears up before the elections Nov. 7... Election officials and voting experts say it's unclear whether the jump in early voting reflects a high degree of voter enthusiasm or is an extension of a gradual increase since 1980... In 2004, about 22% of the vote was cast early, either in person or by absentee voting by mail... No early voting totals are available for the last midterm election in 2002."
The paper also rounds up potential issues with new voting equipment and laws. "Three in every 10 voting jurisdictions in the USA are using new equipment, up from 9% in 2004. More than 20 states are using paper trails for the first time, which produce printouts of voters' choices. Dozens of states have new voter registration and identification requirements. About 1.2 million poll workers and tens of thousands of technicians are still being trained to open the polls before daybreak, set up and maintain the machines, and work up to 15-hour shifts."
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A new Pew poll shows Democrats with a 50%-39% advantage in the 40 most competitive House races across the country, per McClatchy. “Potentially more troubling for Republicans: They lead only 44 percent to 42 percent in all other Republican-held districts, which went heavily for President Bush in 2004.”
The San Francisco Chronicle says that same-sex marriage bans likely will be approved overwhelmingly in five states -- Idaho, Virginia, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee -- after the New Jersey court ruling this week. Polls show many of these constitutional bans passing, and historically, polls have grossly underestimated the yes-vote of similar bans in other states.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
The ad war in Tennessee's toss-up Senate race continues -- with a brand-new TV advertisement by Harold Ford Jr.'s (D) campaign, which directly responds to 1) the Republican National Committee's controversial ad suggesting interracial dating and 2) another RNC ad charging Ford for supporting gay marriage and wanting to "give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren."
The Ford ad begins with an announcer stating: "The ads for Corker attacking Harold Ford? Despicable. Rotten. Lies." And then Ford speaks: "I'm Harold Ford, Jr. ... and now they've attacked my faith ... said I'm for gay marriage when I voted against it ... for giving schoolgirls abortion pills... all of it lies. Here's what I believe... in God, in you, and a new direction."
From NBC's Kevin Corke and Tammy Kupperman
DES MOINES, IA -- President Bush, speaking today at a function here for congressional candidate Jeff Lamberti (R) -- whom he twice referred to as Dave -- just criticized yesterday's court ruling in New Jersey, which said that gay couples are entitled to the same rights as heterosexual couples, but left it to the state legislature to determine whether their union should be called marriage or something else.
"We believe marriage is a fundamental institution of civilization," Bush said. "Yesterday in New Jersey we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage. I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and I believe -- I believe it's a sacred institution, and it's critical to the health of our society and the well being of families, and it must be defended."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
With President Bush signing into law today the authorization for the 700-mile fence along the border, there's some disagreement among Republicans in Congress over just how much it's going to cost. The House Appropriations Committee, whose responsibility it is to count and (especially) spend money, estimates that the fence will cost in the neighborhood of $9 million a mile, which would put the total cost of the barrier at $6.3 billion. They base their estimate on what it had cost to build the existing fence near San Diego.
The House Homeland Security Committee, however, disputes that figure. They say the fence will cost only $2 to 4 billion. So if we call it $3 billion, that puts the per mile charge at $4.3 million. The committee bases this figure on an "internal estimate." Whatever the case, keep in mind that the measure that Bush signed today does not "pay" for anything. It merely "authorizes" -- i.e. gives permission -- for the fence to be built. So far Congress has put down only $1.2 billion in real cash to pay for actual construction.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Twelve days to go... President Bush's day starts off with a ceremonial, politically loaded bill-signing. The Secure Fence Act of 2006 authorizes a 700-mile fence along the Mexican border. Earlier this month, distracted House Republicans missed their chance to tout Bush's signing of the bill that provides a down payment on the fence because it happened in the immediate aftermath of the Mark Foley scandal. Clearly, they're determined not to miss a second chance to promote their work on an issue which has great appeal to the party base.
They're also not missing a chance to motivate their base by firing at House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Speaker Dennis Hastert said yesterday in a written statement about his potential successor, "Pelosi has NEVER visited the border. She claims to understand the needs of those on the front lines but has never visited those agents and offers no solutions." As Republicans across the board attempt to demonize Pelosi, bear in mind that the mid-October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Pelosi was recognized by 57% of those surveyed and of those, 18% had a neutral opinion, 14% viewed her positively, and 25% viewed her negatively. (Mark Foley, on the other hand, was recognized by 83%; 69% viewed him negatively.)
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The AP: "The U.S. military on Thursday announced the deaths of five U.S. troops in fighting in Iraq, raising to 96 the number of American forces killed this month... The latest deaths raised to 96 the number of U.S. forces killed in October, the highest toll for any month this year and on course to surpass the October 2005 total of 96. Before that the deadliest months were January 2005, at 107; November 2004 at 137 and April 2004, at 135."
The Washington Post on Bush's press conference yesterday: "Bush made the unusual move of calling a second news conference in as many weeks to address the public concern, and then opened the event with a 16-minute speech, knowing television networks would carry it live." After a reporter pressed Bush on whether or not the United States is winning the war, Bush said yes. "Asked afterward whether Bush meant that the United States is winning in Iraq specifically or in the fight against terrorism, White House press secretary Tony Snow said: 'In Iraq.'"
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Ted Van Der Meid testified before the House Ethics Committee yesterday. Probably on the list of important people you've never heard of, Van Der Meid is the potential key to the question of what the Speaker's staff knew about Mark Foley's behavior with House pages and what, if anything, they did with that knowledge, reports NBC's Mike Viqueira. As Counsel to the Speaker and director of floor operations, Van Der Meid has immense power when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the House. His realm includes dominion over the House Clerk, who in turn runs the page program. That's why many on Capitol Hill find it difficult to believe that Jeff Trandahl, who was Clerk at the time of the first allegations about Foley, would not have alerted Van Der Meid. In fact, a source close to Trandahl says that the former Clerk, who testified last week, has said that's just what he did whenever complaints about Foley arose -- he took them to Van Der Meid.
Lawyers for Foley have announced that he "has been an inpatient" at the Sierra Tucson treatment facility in Arizona, NBC's Jim Popkin reports. Popkin notes that since Foley began his 30-day treatment on October 1, he could conceivably be released from the Tucson facility this coming weekend. However, his lawyers' language leaves open the possibility that he may not still be there. The lawyers write that he "has been an inpatient" -- not that he is one currently.
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The Republican National Committee's controversial TV ad criticizing Tennessee Senate nominee Harold Ford (D) has come off the air. Per MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Jennifer Yuille, an RNC aide said yesterday that the ad had "run its course," rejecting the suggestion that they pulled the ad because of political pressure. A new ad is being rotated in. The new spot calls Ford "Tennessee's most liberal Congressman. He campaigns in a church, but took cash from Hollywood's top X-rated porn moguls. Ford talks values. But voted to recognize gay marriage. Voted for taxpayer-funded abortions 12 times. And wants to give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren." On Imus this morning, Ford tried to use the controversy over the first ad to cast doubt on the charges in the new one.
Though off the air, the ad still gets front-page treatment in the New York Times: “Critics asserted that the advertisement was a clear effort to play to racial stereotypes and fears, essentially, playing the race card.”
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A new Gallup poll for USA Today asks voters to envision life with a Democrat-run Congress. Strong majorities expect "a timetable to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq" and an increase in federal income taxes. Channeling yesterday's First Read, analysts tell the paper that "Democratic leaders would need to take care not to overreach."
Bloomberg talks to Democratic strategists about what they see as "their party's key to victory: Making the election a referendum on [Bush], his supporters and the war in Iraq, rather than about local concerns and individual races between candidates." Democrats aren't offering a "detailed agenda. Even some Republicans think specifics might no longer be needed."
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Bush budget director Rob Portman gives the Financial Times an interview in which he says a Democratic takeover of Congress would threaten the US economy because it "would jeopardise efforts to contain government spending, put upward pressure on taxes and undermine America’s ability to negotiate free trade agreements... However, he said he was hopeful that the two parties could come together for a serious attempt to reform Social Security and Medicare after the election, regardless of who won." And he "warned voters against assuming that [Bush] could veto all extra spending proposals."
The Houston Chronicle examines the Republicans’ vaunted GOTV operation. “The election results will show whether the GOP machine is powerful enough to overcome what many polls show to be low public ratings of Bush's performance, the war in Iraq and the performance of Republican majorities in the House and Senate.”
A new e-mail solicitation from RNC chair Ken Mehlman blasts a "Kerry/Kennedy bid for liberal control of Congress."
The New York Times on the gay marriage decision in New Jersey: “The New Jersey court did not go as far as Massachusetts, which in 2003 became the first state to permit gay marriage. Instead, it could be considered the new Vermont, which created civil unions for gay couples in 2000, in the politically, legally and culturally charged world of same-sex marriage.” More: “[B]y issuing a nuanced and complicated 90-page ruling that left observers struggling to declare who won and who lost, the court may have neutralized gay marriage as an issue in the Nov. 7 elections.”
The Chicago Tribune: “After setbacks this year in state courts in New York, Nebraska, Washington and Georgia, gay-marriage advocates greeted Wednesday's decision with relief… Opponents of gay marriage said the New Jersey court had shown the same judicial arrogance as the Vermont and Massachusetts courts.”
USA Today lists the eight states with same-sex marriage bans on the ballot this fall.
The New York Times says several candidates across the country -- both Republican and Democrat -- “are showing signs of strain, uttering words they later wish they could take back, running last-ditch advertisements that push the envelope and taking other actions that are out of the political ordinary… ‘It is definitely the funny season,’ said Ed Rollins, a longtime Republican strategist... 'All these Republicans who thought they were in safe seats have seen their numbers drop dramatically. They are freaked.’”
Campaign ad spending could hit "a record $2 billion in spending this year, $300 million more than in 2004, when there were both congressional and presidential elections," Bloomberg reports. "Republicans, Democrats and outside groups have accelerated spending since" the Foley scandal broke and became the catalyst for an even more competitive election cycle than expected.
Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean rallies with CALIFORNIA gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides in Los Angeles. The latest poll by the Public Policy Institute of California has Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) leading Angelides by 18 points. "Schwarzenegger appears headed for re-election by a landslide -- even though California voters strongly believe Democrats are better suited to handle key issues like the economy, the Iraq war, immigration and the environment."
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Next on the list of important people you've never heard of is Ted Van Der Meid, currently behind closed doors at the House Ethics Committee. Van Der Meid is the potential key to the question of what the Speaker's staff knew about Mark Foley's behavior with House pages and what, if anything, they did with that knowledge.
As Counsel to the Speaker and director of floor operations, Van Der Meid has immense power when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the House. His realm includes dominion over the House Clerk, who in turn runs the page program. That's why many on the Hill find it difficult to believe that Jeff Trandahl, who was Clerk at the time of the first allegations about Foley, would not have alerted Van Der Meid. In fact, a source close to Trandahl says that the former Clerk, who testified last week, has said that's just what he did whenever complaints about Foley arose -- he took them to Van Der Meid.
Remember: the Speaker's office asserts that no one on the staff, including Van Der Meid, had any awareness of Foley's conduct -- lewd, "overfriendly," or otherwise -- before the fall of 2005.
It is ironic in the extreme to see Van Der Meid now hauled before Ethics, since he has served as chief counsel to that committee in the past, most notably during the investigation of Newt Gingrich. As one might expect from someone in his position and with his history, there are many in the House -- both at the staff and member levels -- who resent the man and would not mind seeing him take a fall.
From NBC's Jennifer Colby
Sens. Elizabeth Dole and Chuck Schumer, the respective chairs of the GOP and Democratic Senate campaign committees, gave differing views on this year's Senate races at the National Press Club this afternoon. Schumer said the Democratic Party has set records in fundraising this election cycle, and that the money would be used to play offense in traditional Republican states like Tennessee and Virginia. He also used Bush's "cut and run" metaphor to describe GOP incumbents distancing themselves from the administration during their campaigns. "The bottom line is, turning out Democrats to vote this year will be like pouring water downhill," he said. But he refused to predict that Democrats will take back the Senate. "It is hardly a certainty. No one on our side is breaking champagne just yet" -- although he did say he'd be disappointed if they don't pick up seats.
Dole, meanwhile, attributed the anti-incumbent sentiment solely to the "Six-Year Itch" -- the phenomenon of a second-term president's party losing seats in a midterm election. "Bush is not on the ballot," she affirmed. "While Democrats talk about Bush, our candidates will talk about their records." But will Republicans hold onto the Senate? Dole didn't say much, except: "Quality will prevail."
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Jennifer Yuille
The Republican National Committee is saying that its controversial ad against Tennessee Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr. (D) -- which suggests interracial dating between Ford and a Playboy playmate -- has "run its course" and will finish airing today. An RNC spokesperson insists that the committee isn't pulling the ad, but rather that it has just run its course.
A new RNC ad, which first began running on Sunday in Knoxville, will be rotated in its place. It goes: "Harold Ford Jr. He's slick. He's smooth. But his record? A little shaky. Ford is Tenn
