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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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GOP Turmoil

Posted: Wednesday, October 04, 2006 9:13 AM by Huma Zaidi
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Speaker Dennis Hastert is not out of the woods, NBC's Mike Viqueira suggests.  The Republican rank and file are generally big Hastert fans and he has a lot of goodwill within the conference, so it would take a lot for there to be an organized call for his ouster.  Having said that, members are also waiting to see if Hastert can turn the corner and get this behind him, and the sense is that he has another day or so to pull that off.  Members also worry about another shoe dropping in the scandal.  There's been talk about whether the ouster of a Hastert aide would quiet things down, and also talk of Hastert possibly giving up his post after the election.  Viq says that the fact that Congress is not in session works in Hastert's favor because were they all gathered on Capitol Hill, it would be an absolute circus up there, with members constantly having to stop and comment to the press. 

Viq also reports that the House Ethics Committee will gather for a closed-door session tomorrow. 

The Wall Street Journal games out the politics of replacing Hastert: "Any abrupt departure could also disrupt the rest of the leadership in the final weeks of the campaign.  And one of the Republicans' weaknesses is that they have no clear transition figure...  The damage from the scandal complicates the picture because the office of the speaker is elected by the full House.  If Republicans lose seats, any small block of conservatives unhappy with the party's leadership would gain more say."

After Bush spoke up in Hastert's defense yesterday, White House spokesperson Dana Perino told reporters last night that Bush has not talked with Hastert in the last few days because he wants to allow investigators to do their work.  "He wants to know all the facts, and he knows that the Speaker wants to know all the facts." 

Hastert is stepping up his suggestions that the publicizing of Foley's e-mails and instant messages was a political ploy meant to hurt Republicans in the midterms, and while some conservatives are calling for his resignation, others support his argument.  Hastert told Rush Limbaugh yesterday, "...[W]hat we've tried to do as the Republican Party is make a better economy, protect this country against terrorism... and there are some people that try to tear us down.  We are the insulation to protect this country, and if they get to me it looks like they could affect our election as well."  Limbaugh replied, "...[I]t's clear to me that what the Democrats are doing here in some sort of cooperation with some in the media is to suppress conservative turnout..."

And in an interview with a local radio station in his hometown of Plano, IL yesterday, Hastert claimed responsibility for the situation but added, "on the other hand, this has been mysteriously dropped on us the last day of the session, just before the election," and called it "an October surprise that keeps us from getting our message out." 

Conservative activist Richard Viguerie told NBC yesterday that Republicans will lose their majority this fall and that it's for the best.  He offered the analogy of the Jews wandering in the desert for 40 years, saying conservatives are in the same boat: "We're not going to get to the political Promised Land until we have new leaders."  He added, "The one thing that we've got to avoid at this point -- above everything else -- is a cover-up.  We don't need to wait until the FBI comes back with their report after the election.  We need to get to the bottom of this, and we need to get to it now." 

Moderate Republicans who happen to be in tight races this fall are also stepping forward.  GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee, one of his party's most vulnerable Senate incumbents on the ballot, has called on any Republican leader found to have been involved in a cover-up of the Foley scandal to step down.  Chafee will be joined on the trail today by Sen. John McCain (R), who's scheduled to talk about the environment -- but may also wind up having to talk about this.

Another top Republican who may be confronted by questions about this today: Laura Bush, who's in Buffalo to raise money for Rep. Tom Reynolds and does a radio interview on youth issues.  Reynolds, the party's House campaign committee chief, is caught up in the scandal because he was informed of the e-mails early on and has claimed that he told Hastert about them last spring.  The Buffalo News says that "if anyone has ever needed first lady Laura Bush to come to the rescue, it's [Reynolds]." 

Yesterday saw some daylight between Hastert and his lieutenants, NBC's Viq reports, even though Majority Leader John Boehner came to Hastert's defense by denouncing a newspaper editorial calling for Hastert's resignation.  One front on which conflicting statements were made was on when Hastert first learned of the Foley e-mails -- any Foley e-mails.  Hastert told NBC on Monday night that the first time he learned of the e-mails was last Friday, the day Foley resigned.  "I have to say that I don't recall anyone telling me about 'em.  I heard about them the same time (as the more salacious e-mails) on Friday afternoon." 

But on Monday night in Buffalo, Reynolds said that when he heard about the e-mails in the spring, he reported them to Hastert.  Citing his sexual harassment training, he said, "I was educated to take to the supervisor...  The Speaker of the House is my supervisor."  And yesterday on local radio back home in Cincinnati, Majority Leader John Boehner reported that he did the same.  "I believe I talked to the Speaker and he told me that it had been taken care of."

Roll Call notes that "while Members and outside groups rallied behind Hastert" yesterday, "other, more vulnerable Republicans appear to be distancing themselves from leadership as a whole.  Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), who is locked in one of the most competitive races this cycle..., canceled a scheduled Monday fundraiser with Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), 'because he felt it was inappropriate to move ahead with it as planned.'"

Hastert's 32-year-old Democratic opponent back home claims to the Washington Times that he's seeing more support now because of how Hastert has handled the Foley affair. 

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Comments

Hastert should step down, I think he has done a lot more damage to the GOP's future prospects than most people realize. In addition to allowing a pedophile to run amok in the house for years, He has enabled the corruption among republican leaders through his total lack of ethics oversight. He dissolved the ethics committee in order to brush previous scandals involving DeLay, Abramoff, Ney, Cunningham etc... under the rug. For a while this strategy worked because those ethics violations were difficult for the average voter to grasp and they did not prevent the Republicans from try to claim the moral high ground on social issues. This ongoing scandal however resonates with families across America. It also angers the GOP base, threatening to dampen turnout at the polls at a time when the GOP needed to energize the base. They've already lost the moderates, the fiscal conservatives, and the independents. Because of Hastert, they've now also lost the "Values Voters" and Religious Right.
How stupid do the GOP leaders think the voters really are? The Dems were "holding" this e-mail traffic until an October bombing run? Hastert told Boehner that "the problem was taken care of." If that is not a "cover your backside" reference, I never heard one. Richard Viguire is right--it is indeed time for them to go, all of them.
I believe Halstert is being deceptive. Yesterday he admitted to knowing about Foley's inappropriate correspondence with pages, yet of all the messages he says he only knew about the 'are you okay after Katrina' message to the Louisiana page. He said that the parents of the page asked Halstert to stop Foley from contacting their son. Now think about it this way. I'm a father, and if my child had been a page in Washington and afterwards maintained contact with high ranking officials in D.C... I'd be thrilled for my child's potential career opportunities. The only reason I'd want such communication stopped was if it was sexual or abusive in some way. Now back to Halstert... he must have known about explicit messages for the Louisiana parents request to have even hit his radar. His selective memory seems consistent with current republican strategy... stick your head in the sand and deny. Bush did it and we believed him. Foley did it and we believed him. Now Halstert is doing it. I don't believe him.
The feigned upset over an alleged Democratic trick is laughable when coming from the party that redefined dirty campaign tactics. Americans may be easy to manipulate, but are not idiots, and will demonstrate that decisively on election day. We have endured an unnecessary war, a destroyed economy, a widening of the gap between the classes, and a army of sleazy politicians, and enough is enough.
It is absurd to insinuate that Democrats are somehow to blame for this! Hastert is doing his party no favors by making a fool of himself. The Republicans control all branches of government and they are responsible for this mess. We need to elect Democrats, if only to have some sense of checks and balances back in Washington!
Regarding Hastert: Regardless of his rank, he should receive the same sort of raking over the coals that was meted out to Louisiana Congressman William Jefferson. First, the FBI should search his office and seize his computer and other relevant items to find out what he knew and when he knew it. Then, the way Jefferson was stripped of his membership on the Ways and Means Committee, Hastert should be ousted from his position as Speaker of the House. I am ashamed that this disgusting slimebucket happens to be a Member of Congress from Illinois--and it is unfortunate that I don't live in his district--which means I won't be able to vote against him next month.
The whole republican party have fail American. Both the congress and the house have give President Bush what ever he wanted. The war in Iraq did not have to happen. You know I keep hearing people say that if we leave now all hell going to break out. Let me tell you it really don't matter it's going ot break out any way. We spent over 500 billions dollars in the Iraq war for what. All of those young men have lost their lives for nothing. The whole thing was a big lie. I hope in Novermber that thing will change in Washington.
And to think...Bill Clinton was nearly burned at the stake for having a tryst with an intern (of legal age, I might point out.) If the democrats don't make this a huge issue, they're just plain stupid. It just goes to show that absolute power corrupts, absolutely.
Alphonso, Sacramento CA, Man are you reading my mind or what? It has all been about power. We have been "lead astray, lied to, run amok, bamboozled", all in the name of political power. Where are the Repulicans of courage? The good of the country should take priority over politics & power. Anyone...??? (Are you related to me, Alphonso B?)
This is beginning to sound like the new 'twinkie defense'. Rehab and childhood abuse.
Hmmm...When Rep. Reynolds was in Buffalo, he mentions having had "sexual harassment training." Is that where you're taught how to sexually harass?
It looks like Hastert was definitely lying - Rep. Rodney Alexander, R-La., the congressman who sponsored the page at the heart of the furor, said today that Hastert "knew about the e-mails that we knew about," including one in which Foley asked the page to send his picture.
People seem to be forgetting that the Republican base is extremely anti-gay and will focus on the fact that a gay in the Republic Party was allowed to interact with young male pages at all. After all, this is the party that pushes to outlaw gay marriage just to score political points its base, this does just the opposite, causing a total lack of motivation from the conservative base. The very fact that Foley is gay and that Hastert allowed this to go on will infuriate most conservatives many of whom probably had no idea that Foley was gay. To the bigots in the Republican party, Hastert and the others should have been paying closer attention to Foley's actions anyway just because he is gay and interacted with young male pages. The fact that Hastert knew Foley was contacting pages a year ago will only anger the conservative base even more.
Tom from Richmond, I am confused by your post, particulary your insinuation that gay men need to be "watched" more closely around young male pages...because all gay males want to prey upon young boys? If this is in fact what you are saying then does this mean that the heterosexual men in Congress should be watched more closely around females?
Tom from Richmond, I am confused by your post, particulary your insinuation that gay men need to be "watched" more closely around young male pages...because all gay males want to prey upon young boys? If this is in fact what you are saying then does this mean that the heterosexual men in Congress should be watched more closely around females?
No, this may harden the core right. They realize that if they loose either house of Congress, their heyday is over. Bush will get no more rubber stamp legislation passed. He can't take his pleas to the people...61% already don't trust him. He will be a true lame-duck. His last two years will be nothing but a defense of his failed policies. More revelations will surface about his know-nothing advisers. He will be finished. 2008 will be a referendum on him and he will be a pariah.
I agree with Tom from Richmond, the Republican base is anti-gay, many of them will be enraged just to find out that Foley was gay and that he was also allowed to work with missing and exploited children. The GOP is constantly trying to bash gays just to satisfy the so-called moral values voting block. If they are sickened at the thought of gay marriage, can you imagine how they are reacting to a Republican rep who is also a gay pedophile?
The Foley story is just the tip of the iceberg. Just wait until the story breaks on the single white middle aged male Republican nominee for governor in Florida. Do the math.
now lets see, hastert has deferment bushs support, oh golly, whoopee, geewiz, what a big boost from someone whos approval ratings isn't enough to boost him to real man status and surely not a true American and i can't forget katrina, his wife wanted to send books to louisiana for the children probally so they could read while the water was going down and this is not something that i am wanting to make a joke at only the deferment bushes back turning to the real problems of this great city, i trully believe these families would have wanted a place to live and food into their stomaches, it is nothing more than another botched job along with the rest of them who are to numerous to mention, listen America this little dude deferment has nothing for the well being of us on his big business buddys, remember he has failed in every business he has tried and he is failing at an alarming rate now.
Anyone, who knew anything about the possibility of abuse of a page or any immoral or insinuating evidence should flatly resign or be kicked out including the speaker! To stand by knowing there was a possibility of a risk has betrayed children and the honor of being a page, what kind of moral ethics have they showed the young people who work so hard for what was a privelege and a dream come true??
If I am not mistaken, if a parent was to leave their child in the custody, and care of a person known to be sexually attracted to underage children, they can be brought up on charges of endangerment, and possibly more. When a parent agrees to allow their child to participate in the page program, they are entrusting the care, and protection to the members of Congress. The Congress becomes the guardian for every page there. Following this line of thought, it seems to me, that who ever knew of Foley's past activities, and chose not to do anything about it; chose to hide and cover-up Foley's activities; all in an effort to retain their power, and control of the House, are guilty of child endangerment. There are only two plausible reasons, or excuses for why thos who knew, did nothing about it. One, those who knew have a page(s) of their own that they play with. Or two, retaining their control of the House was more important to them than protecting those children entrusted to them, as guardians while they were in Washington. Anyone who knew about Foley's conduct prior to this past Friday, should resign from their seat in the House, and be held accountable, and prosecuted by the law, for the endangerment of those children whose care was entrusted to them.
So the House Ethics Committee is meeting in a closed-door session - do you really think that this "do nothing" committee will censure anyone or make any difference? What a joke!!!!
If Hastert doesn't fall on the sword by Monday, someone will throw him onto it. The Republican Party has too much at stake to let loyalty and decency get in the way.
Hmmm...the House Ethics Committee is meeting in a closed-door session...interesting things have been known to happen behind closed doors...
I believe the House should institute a "Don't ask, don't tell" policy with regard to their Congressmen and women. If it's good enough for our military it should be good enough for Congress, and the Senate too. Looks to me like the Dems are "gay bashing." Why such a double standard for Dems as opposed to Republicans? Was President Clinton getting a "BJ" from Intern Monica while the CIA was attempting to contact him for the go-ahead to take out bin Laden? We'll never know for sure, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if that were, in fact, true!
Maybe Bill Clinton was getting a BJ when he started all those after-school programs and got funding for cities and towns to hire extra police. Maybe even when he got Republicans to be in his cabinet and reached out to the other side of the aisle to get things done. He lied about having extramarital sex with someone in her twenties. Now the Republicans are lying about their gay predator Foley, that they can't really recall what they said about him, but that they do remember having a conversation about it. They told him he'd better stop, and if he didn't they would have to tell him to stop again. And they warned pages about him. I guess they thought it was pretty bad or they wouldn't have warned the pages away from him. Now they say the page was legal (why is 16 legal in D.C.?) and it is just the democrat's fault. It's the alcohol's fault. It's the fault of the priest who molested him. It's just that cute page's fault for being so darn enticing. Shame on him for bringing this fine politician down. It's everybody else's fault, never the fault of any Republicans.


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