Predictions and expectations

Posted: Tuesday, October 31, 2006 9:04 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has updated its ratings, calling 12 GOP-held seats more vulnerable now than they had been, including moving eight seats to the toss-up column.

"In the House, GOP strategists privately concede that a half-dozen to 10 seats are already lost," Roll Call reports. "But they say the other competitive two- to three-dozen races are close - even closer than publicly available polls suggest in some cases. Democrats, meanwhile, are working to tamp down expectations for the size of the party’s gains in the House, saying that if they do pick up the minimum 15 seats needed..., the final tally could be much smaller than is currently being forecast by most public polling and pundits."

Republicans are putting out word that per early-voting stats, "their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. If the trend holds, it could mean that early voting is growing -- and continuing to benefit Republicans... This year, though, Democrats contend that Republicans are exaggerating their successes so far, by highlighting a few races, while ignoring problems they are having in motivating their troops around the country... Analysts figured that many of those early voters would be affected by the run of bad news the party suffered in September and early October... But [RNC] political director Mike DuHaime said that concern is likely exaggerated, because the party is focused on turning out a relatively reliable core of supporters."

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Comments

Here's an outsiders take on the election: http://progressivepodcast.org

progralien, Washington DC (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 11:01 AM)

Republicans need to go...VOTE DEM!

Carol Orsini, Winston Salem, NC (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 11:50 AM)

I DON'T KNOW WHO SAYS NEGATIVE TELEVISION ADS WORK. I AM TURNED OFF MORE EACH YEAR BY THESE ADS. WHAT'S WORSE IS THAT THE PERSON RUNNING FOR OFFICE IS ACCOUNTABLE FOR EACH AD. THEY HAVE TO SAY AT THE END" I HAVE APPROVED THIS MESSAGE" BUT APPARENTLY OTHER POLITICAL GROUPS CAN MAKE UP WHAT EVER THEY WISH. THE MUD SLINGING HAS HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH. I AM SICK OF THESE NEGATIVE ATTACK ADS. IT WILL TAKE ALOT FOR ME TO VOTE AT ALL!!!

MICHAEL HOHMANN (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:10 PM)

november 8th will be interesting! But, I do ask, what happens if GOP retains control of the houses? will Mr moore, Mr Soros clamor for a recall due to faulty election polling equipment? Will Mr (Rev) Jackson and Mr (Rev) Sharpton claim that the poor, the minority voters were disenfranchised due to some states requirments to have ID when voting? Will the "Karl Rove conspiracy clubs" boom in blogs ,etc? I just ask that this country reunite after the 7th of Nov and start acting like the glonal superpower we are and quit acting like spolied rich kids fighting in a sandbox over toys. That goes for the drunk on power neocons in GOP land and the "just give us a chance to screw it up" Democrats. Give representative democracy a chance to flourish; get rid of the lobbyists controlled power base which resides in the halls of Congress.

Mike C; Syracuse, NY (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:15 PM)

Something that hasn't been mentioned much: what happens if the GOP in fact wins all of the toss up races and retains the majority? Remember we are only talking about 40-50 races at most. There is not going to be a national popular vote as a guide. It is not enough that Dems in Blue states are very very mad, or that the independents there are more than mildly dissatisfied. It all boils down to whether there are enough disillusioned GOP's in suburban districts and in the purple districts to either not vote or vote Dem. But from all available polling data, it seems very clear that those that drink the Bush Kool-Aid continue to do so and nothing will change their votes. Bush governs by adhering to Rove's numbers: 1/3 vote GOP, 1/3 vote Dem and 1/3 dispite their beliefs, don't vote. Will Americans take to the streets when they realize that their votes have little or no impact on the change of government? Is it good that we cannot significantly impact by our votes what by all polling data is a significantly unpopular government on a national basis?

Wm. Weissbeck, Schererville, IN (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:18 PM)

If they steal another election, then it's time for another revolution.

Jamie, Boston, MA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:25 PM)

Mike C; Syracuse, Just tell me how Democrats have "screwed it up"? When Clinton left office, we had a surplus, our allies respected us, our environment was protected by laws since resinded and FEMA had the highest morale of any government agency. Tell me again how returning Democrats to power is giving them another chance to "screw up?" Just curious.

Amy B (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:39 PM)

Mike C you apparently have ignored, looked the other way, or refused/neglected to keep yourself informed of what's been happening in the world of voter disenfanchisement and electronic voting insecurity in the past few years. When these things occur, there is no representative democracy. This isn't about toys in a sandbox or conspiracy theories. You'd know the ability to change voting totals is incredibly easy to do w/ some of the current machines. Instead of wasting your breath about "playing nice" after 11/7, speak out about playing fair, especially if there are questionable results. Don't be so gullible to accept results and call folks poor losers without truly listening to experts suggesting otherwise. You really think the power lusting wouldn't try to 'win' unfairly?? Perhaps when votes are properly counted, then we could have that representative democracy you and I both sincerely want.

Nikki, Lancaster, PA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:41 PM)

Mike C, Sorry, I just realized you didn't say "screw it up again," you just were voicing a lack of confidence in the Democrats' future performance. Point taken, however, I've decided the way to clean up politics is for people to JOIN the Democratic party and exercise their right to set its agenda. I participated at the primary level for the first time this year, and I am starting to see how much an impact activists can have. My candidate didn't win because the extremists were the ones who came out and voted! Now moderates in my state are grumbling that they don't like our party's candidate. I am learning a lot lately about how politics works, and I am realizing we all need to get involved to clean the system up.

Amy B. Portland, Me (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:50 PM)

Let's take the money and influence peddling out of politics. It's time we had publicly financed elections. Put everyone on the same playing field, including 3rd and 4th parties so we can be offered a real choice. Political favors cost tax-payers money. Big money. Much more money than the cost of publicly financed campaigns. While we're at it, let's put a stiff penalty (financial and jail time) for anyone who runs campaign ads with lies in them. Make them subject to perjury laws. Any network that runs such ads should be in jeopardy of losing their broadcasting license.

Stan G, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:51 PM)

Mike C , What a freakin hypocrite you are. You say everbody should reunite on Nov. 8th, but that does not stop you from taking cheap shots and labeling people. People like you make me sick. You say you want unity but all you got is hate and venom. Slogans and dissing people does not bring them together. What we need is for the politicians to move to the center and learn to work together and come up with compromises to most of today's problems. My question to you is why do you care so much about Mr Moore and Mr Soro's. They speak their minds but do not represent all democrats. Why do you bring racism into this debate by bringing up Jackson and Sharpton. What the hell do these 2 people have to do with this debate. You brought them up to promote what, your hatred of poor people. So all poor people are black. People like you are why this country is so filled with hate.

bobf (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 1:32 PM)

Stan G's ideas make way too much sense to be workable....

Olivia Elizabeth Burdon, Peoria, Ill. (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:54 PM)

I'VE ASKED THE SAME QUESTION SOMEONE ASKED EARLIER, SEVERAL TIMES, WHY AREN'T THE BUSH TWINS IN IRAQ. THIS WAR HAS BOTH "YOUNG" MEN AND WOMEN FIGHTING.

MARY COOK PHOENIX AZ (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:18 PM)

Please do not let the Republicans steal another one!!All the Democrats HAVE TO GET OUT AND VOTE CALL EVERYONE DEM YOU KNOW TO VOTE DON'T THINK THE REPUBLICANS WILL GO OUT EASILY THEY ARE DIRTY FIGHTERS AND THE ARE PULLING OUT THE STOPS BECASUSE THEY ARE RUNNING SCARED. So please democrats vote vote vote!!!!!!!

Cathy Zelli, Crosswicks, NJ (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:28 PM)

I agree with Jamie, if the Christian/Republican slime steal another election, It is time for a revolution.

Boris, Peoria, Il (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:38 PM)

The problem with politics is the power and prestige that we give the public servants(Senators & Congressmen)You would think they were celebrities the way they are treated. We must force politicians to obey the will of the people. They serve us! Furthermore; ban campaign adds on television,radio,newspaper and internet.Put a stop the sound bites and attack adds. Make the candidates get back to grass roots campaigning. Let's have debates, and town hall meetings, and real interaction with voters. I don't care about your party.....I care about your opinion; and our candidates should feel the same.

Ron, Williamsburg,Va (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:41 PM)

Call me old-fashioned, but I am still a little leery of a paperless ballot and electronic voting machines with no paper trail. With the lust for power in Washington, and the disdain to actually govern, I am more and more concerned that we need to invite monitors from all over the world to observe the election, assuring us all that each vote is counted and that eveyrone who is entitled to gets to cast their vote. This partisan nonsense is an incredibly effective cover for the highjacking of a system of free and fair elections.

Kevin Fleming, Evansville, IN (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:53 PM)

I just sent a very intelligent e-mail describing my thoughts on a bi-partisan political process. These comments were not included. Instead your screeners include comments on "dirty republicans" and "screwed up democrats" That do not help the debate or improve the process.....You only succeed in further dividing people!

Ron, Williamsburg,Va. (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:03 PM)

I always hear foul when an ad is aganist a Republican candadiate. In the New Mexico 1st Congressional Campgain it seems Hether Wilson the incumbent has received a lot of outside money to destroy her oppoent Patrica Madrid. This has been the most negative campaign I've heard from women. Enough is enough and I think Heather Wilso should apologize to New Mexico for her attitude towards our citizens.

Ken Johnson, Hobbs, New Mexico (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:09 PM)

Please ignore the last e-mail

Ron, Williamsburg, Va. (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:11 PM)

Hi I know I'm not American and that I'm from Scotland, but I was just wondering how did politics become the bitch fight it has become today? Why do politicians feel the need to slag one another off .I know it certainly will not encourage me to go and vote for those parties involved it is more likely to put me off. Why is there such a resistence in having another Republican win? Iam a little confused so could someone explain, nicely?? P.s. this is for my higher level Modern Studies case study.

Fiona Stewart, Milnathort, Scotland (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:17 PM)

In defense of Mike C, my take was that he felt that we not point fingers and hear the same trite comments when elections are lost. Amy B. Mr.Clinton worked with a Republican Congress and came to center -- he was a pragmatist and masterful politician. Boris of Peoria--Christian/Republican slime? Now there is a statement on which we can begin unity of purpose. In reading over some of these comments, they are filled with such venom. Makes me think we are deserving of what we get in Washington. I guess I am a little jaded, because until we revise our campaign financing, have term limits, eliminate the undue influence of lobbyists, and give the president the right to a line item veto, we will continue to see how power corrupts whether we have a democrat or republican controlled congress. See Man of the Year with Robin Williams--some excellent points are made in this comedy.

Allan P (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:31 PM)

Fiona - America is similar to other countries in that each individual beleives that their opinion, and thus, their party is the right way to govern. However, unlike many countries, we do not have a truly representative government due to an overwhelmingly strong 2 party system, and the minorities, either on the right or the left, and often in the middle, get left out. Some have stronger opinions than others, and no one likes to lose. If Republicans win, the Democrats will be a loud opposition, and vice versa if the Democrats win. Either way, opinions will be voiced, and one group will be "right", while the other will always be "wrong". Until alternative parties evolve, or meet in the middle, this resistance will continue.

Creighton Cox, Urbandale, Iowa (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:53 PM)

I am baffled by an electorate that misses the point, over and over. How many times does the administration get a pass by saying, "I didn't know, no one told me; if they told me, they they gave me the wrong information?" From pre-Katrina (someone says there's a storm coming?), to post Katrina ("Good job, Brownie), to Iraq (no WMD; no Al Quieda connections; We'll be home by Christmas;" "We never said 'stay the course'," and if we did, we didn't mean it), to water-boarding, to the budget (what budget?), the job performance ot this bunch has been pathetic. There are only two possible explanations for this pattern of behavior. These folks really are that misinformed and incompetent, or they are liars. Neither explanation makes me comfortable with "staying the course" with this crowd. As a conservative who fondly recalls the days when being a Republican was synonymous with fiscal responsibility, I feel utterly betrayed by Bush and his ilk. Having only voted Democrat on rare occasions in the last 40 years, I may never vote Republican again.

Joe, Austin, Texas (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 4:55 PM)

Is anyone else out there slightly concerned that our President is campaigning for mid-term elections? As the Commander in Chief whose troops are currently fighting a seemingly unwinnable conflict, doesn't he have a war to run? Is there no better way to utilize his time?

Jon Doe, Seattle Wash. (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 6:40 PM)

Hey, Fiona - If a Repug can HONESTLY win an election - fine. When they steal them, they commit treason and deserve to dance at the end of a bayonnet. Do people in Scotland take a passe attitude towards treason?

Lee Steele (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 8:56 PM)

Fiona - I am reminded of my civics class in high school, where my teacher explained the Soviet critique of U.S. politics: that the power and wealth in the two parties eliminated real choice in the election process. While I still believe the argument is flawed, it stikes a chord with events in the last six years. Beyond the question of whether the election was stolen in 2000 or 2004, the big issue is that the executive branch, and the House and Senate have almost exclusively by one party. Adding insult to injury, that party has also used its power to try to undermine the independence of the third branch of government, the judiciary; to change rules and processes to try to protect those in the inner circle, like Tom Delay; and to exclude the "other" party from the legislative process by not even allowing them to initiate legislation. This has led to widespread belief that the entire political process is controlled by a powerful, wealthy few. Adding fuel to the fire have been some pretty audacious moves to focus on social/moral agendas at the expense of addressing real issues. Two easy examples come to mind: getting Congress and the executive in the middle of the Schiavo tradgedy; and blocking stem cell research on purely religious grounds. All of the rancor will probably continue until we get to a point where power is truly split between the parties, and they are forced to work together; true accountibility will exist, and folks won't feel so disenfranchised.

Joe, Austin, Texas (Sent Wednesday, November 01, 2006 12:55 PM)

I have become pretty good at predicting national elections. The House will, more than likely, fall to the Dems. Before JK's comments I had Dems up 18. Now however it will most likely be 16. Not a working majority. In the Senate, Reps will lose no more than 4 seats and most likely 3.

Craig R. Patterson, Colorado Springs, CO (Sent Wednesday, November 01, 2006 1:29 PM)

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