November 2006 - Posts
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
"Go, Tom, go!" Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack was greeted by supporters chanting his name in unison at Iowa Wesleyan College as he took the stage to officially announce his candidacy for president this morning. Vilsack, kicking off a five-state tour in his hometown of Mt. Pleasant today, was joined by his wife and children.
With President Bush in the Middle East today, Vilsack called for immediate action to push Iraqis to provide their own security. "We must act and we must act now. We must take our troops out of harm's way and say to the Iraqis, it is your responsibility to protect your families and your communities," Vilsack said.
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is signing up high-caliber advisors and staff. Gov. George Pataki (R) was just in Iraq. Sen. Barack Obama (D) is about to do Leno, address an evangelical conference on AIDS, and publicly take another AIDS test. But one presidential candidate is stepping forth this morning to do what no other has done: actually articulate his vision for the country and his case for why he should be elected.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) needs the attention he hopes to gain by being the first to dive into the 2008 pool. Up until now, his biggest national role has been as chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, a role that comes with a certain level of cachet, thanks to predecessor Bill Clinton, but is more likely to yield him policy advisors and white papers than campaign contributions and votes.
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President Bush announced at a joint press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki earlier this morning that the United States will stay in Iraq for as long as necessary: "this business about a graceful exit simply just has no realism to it at all." His expressions of strong support for Maliki ("the right guy for Iraq") came after a leaked three-week-old memo by his national security advisor raised doubts about Maliki's abilities, and Maliki canceled a scheduled dinner with Bush last night.
"Senior Bush aides offered at least four explanations for the cancellation - finally dispatching a more junior official to tell reporters late Wednesday that Maliki and Jordan's King Abdullah II had decided mutually that a three-way conversation was not necessary," says the Los Angeles Times.
The Iraq Study Group plans to present its findings to Bush, Congress, and the public on December 6, one day after Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates has his confirmation hearing. Incoming Senate Foreign Relations chair and presidential candidate Joe Biden is expected to then schedule hearings about the group's recommendations.
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Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is giving up on his presidential aspirations, at least for 2008, he announced yesterday. Frist sounded ready to quit Washington altogether as he sticks to his self-imposed two-term limit in the Senate (in an e-mail to supporters, he calls himself a "citizen legislator"). His record as leader is mixed and his second term, particularly since he began eyeing the presidency, has been marked by clumsy moves such as his "diagnosis" via videotape of Terri Schiavo and his flip-flop in favor of expanded federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. He also took a hit from an ongoing SEC investigation into allegations of insider trading after he sold his shares in hospital chain HCA, which his father founded. To the extent that he had gained any ground among social conservatives, his exit from the field leaves that much to be claimed by another candidate.
As for the candidate angling to become the mainstream conservative alternative to frontrunning Sen. John McCain (R), Romney has signed up former top Bush economic advisors Greg Mankiw and Glenn Hubbard. "They have respect," one Washington-based economic analyst tells First Read. "Remember that Mankiw was Mr. Outsourcing, so he's a little toxic politically. But they have respect among economists (what a vital interest group they are!) and to a somewhat lesser extent on Wall Street (just because they aren't identified with markets, not because of their association with Bush)." This analyst adds, "I do think Wall Street is important as a source of funds and credibility, so Romney is signaling that he's a serious player, especially since he's not identified with economic (any?) issues."
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"Business groups, encouraged by the narrowness of the Democrats' majority in the U.S. Senate for the next two years, are laying plans to block or limit efforts to increase taxes on oil-company profits and curb prescription-drug prices," says Bloomberg.
McClatchy delves into the Border Patrol background of Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D), the seemingly likely new House Intelligence Committee chair, noting that "[h]e isn't talking now, but when McClatchy News Service asked him earlier this month whether he wanted the chairmanship, he said, 'Of course. That would be a tremendous challenge that I would look forward to.'" The article also notes that the "ability of the even-tempered Reyes to work with Republicans would help, as would his solid Democratic credentials."
The New York Times profiles new Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who had been planning on being the new majority leader. “[But] he is instead the incoming leader of the new Senate minority, albeit one who, with 49 votes in his pocket, will have the ability to block Democratic initiatives more or less at will. ‘There will be nothing here they can do without some degree of cooperation from a very robust 49-vote minority,’ he said in an interview this week.”
The AP: “While they still can, House Republicans are looking at scheduling a vote next week on a fetal pain abortion bill in a parting shot at incoming majority Democrats and a last bid for loyalty from the GOP's base of social conservatives.”
In NORTH CAROLINA, the AP writes, Democrat Larry Kissell conceded to incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) “after the initial phase of a hand recount showed the result was not likely to change.”
So by our count, Democrats now have a 232-202 advantage in the House, with only one uncalled, undecided race that could possibly change hands: the run off in TEXAS between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and challenger Ciro Rodriguez (D). Speaking of which, the state of Texas is asking the Justice Department to approve the December 12 date for the run off -- which is being opposed by Latino groups because “Dec. 12 is the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe, the patron saint of Mexico and Latin America.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Barack Obama seems to be everywhere -- he was in Iowa for Sen. Tom Harkin's steak fry; he campaigned with virtually every Democratic candidate last fall; and as we mentioned earlier, he's heading to New Hampshire next month. And now this: NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" has announced that Obama will be on the program this Friday.
It's unlikely that Obama will reveal his 2008 intentions to Leno. But also remember that it was on the "Tonight Show" where Arnold Schwarzenegger first announced in 2003 that he was running for California governor.
From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC News confirms, per a source close to the senator, that Sen. Bill Frist will announce today that he will not run for president.
The Hotline reports that Frist will hold a press conference in his home state of Tennessee.
Frist, who is also a doctor, released a statement saying that after serving in the Senate for 12 years, he will return home to live a "private life" so that he can go back to his "professional roots as a healer."
“In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008," Frist writes.
He adds that he and his wife Karyn will take a "sabbatical from public life" and that in the interim he hopes to travel on "medical mission trips as a doctor around the world to serve those in poverty, in famine, and in civil war."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
President Bush heads to Amman to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki as a leaked November 8 memo written by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley has Hadley questioning whether Maliki is up to the job, the Iraq Study Group tries to finish up its work, and the Pentagon prepares a $127 billion-plus supplemental spending request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the broader war on terror.
NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that per a member of the Iraq Study Group, they are "pretty far along" in agreeing on draft proposals. They had planned to complete their work yesterday, Mitchell reports, but failed to reach a consensus on key recommendations, so they're meeting again this morning. An official close to the deliberations says there are new ideas in the draft report, but some members of the panel are becoming increasingly discouraged about the odds that the White House and Congress will accept them. The group's target for releasing a report is next week, and the tentative plan is for co-chairs Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton to go to the White House and the Hill to brief principals on the morning of the release, then unveil their findings at a news conference. Earlier this week, the group paused to pose for a class photo taken for a magazine (not Vanity Fair) and shot by celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz.
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The New York Times was the first to report on the Hadley memo.
USA Today, without mentioning the memo, nevertheless previews the Amman summit by reporting that "analysts say there is growing evidence that al-Maliki is not up to the formidable task of bringing stability to his country."
The Financial Times, noting a "rapidly hardening consensus" that Iraq is in a civil war, also points out that leaks from the Iraq Study Group and comments by some members "indicate its findings are likely to be sharply at odds with Mr Bush's insistence that the US can still achieve 'victory'... The report is expected to include an option for the 'phased redeployment' of the 145,000-strong US forces in Iraq and direct talks with Iraq's neighbours to stabilise the country."
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The Hill reports that "union representatives, liberal leaders, and aides to House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) met yesterday to begin work on a broad lobbying push to promote Pelosi’s 100-legislative-hour agenda with a campaign expected to mimic the one that helped defeat [Bush’s] proposed reforms to Social Security... Party strategists are speculating that they will have a brief window of legislative productivity before a curtain of partisanship falls across town... for the 2008 presidential election."
Pelosi's "decision to bypass Hastings could damage Pelosi's strained relations with the Congressional Black Caucus," speculates the Boston Globe. "The caucus clashed with Pelosi earlier this year over her efforts to press Representative William J. Jefferson of Louisiana to resign his primary committee post when investigators found $90,000 in his freezer."
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The Boston Globe reports that Romney will base his 2008 effort in Boston after all, rather than in Michigan, saying his team "is laying plans to run his presidential campaign from a three-story waterfront building at the edge of Boston's North End."
Two former chairs of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors and a former member of Vice President Cheney's domestic policy team have signed up with him.
As the Republican governors gather in Miami, some GOP operatives are pointing fingers at the RGA's decision-making during the midterms, arguing that the committee didn't allocate its resources as effectively as it could have.
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In FLORIDA, Sarasota County elections officials said they found no malfunctions in their voting machines, which has been the source of controversy in the race between Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings. Despite the tests, "there were still no clues about why a high number of voters -- more than 18,000 -- did not have votes recorded in the Buchanan-Jennings race on Election Day... But the tests were already being questioned by the Democratic contender in the race, as well as fellow Democrats in the U.S. House -- which looks more and more likely to get involved."
In NORTH CAROLINA, the recount in the race between incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) and challenger Larry Kissell (D) begins today and will last until Thursday; Kissell trails by 329 votes. “A full hand recount will be ordered if the results in the sampled precincts show that that there is potential for the race's outcome to be reversed.”
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A Democratic House leadership aide says incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) that he will not become chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Sen. Barack Obama (D) will be making his first-ever trip to New Hampshire on December 10, when he'll appear at a New Hampshire Democratic Party "election celebration" in Manchester. The party is looking to celebrate its big wins in the state on November 6.
"He's never, ever, ever put his foot in the state," said Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs. "It was a wonderful invitation that we decided to accept."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) is expected to pay a call on incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi today in her (soon-to-be-former) Capitol office. Hastings is expected to lay out his case for why he should become the next chair of the House Intelligence Committee. His appointment is in some doubt because he was impeached as a judge before getting elected to Congress. The time of the meeting is TBD; Pelosi was asked about the matter at her photo-op with the Italian deputy prime minister, and she declined to talk about it.
Pelosi did have a few comments about Iraq, however, saying "I feel sad" that President Bush is "resorting" to his rhetoric of blaming al Queda for the level of violence there. "If the President persists on the course that he is on... then that will make it more difficult" to work in a bipartisan way, she said.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
At a press conference in Estonia earlier this morning, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports, President Bush: blamed al Qaeda for fomenting sectarian violence; declined to engage on NBC's use of the term "civil war" to describe the violence; outlined questions he will ask Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki in Jordan later this week; said Iraq has been in this current phase of violence for about nine months (contradicting National Security Advisor Steve Hadley's calling it a "new phase"); said Iraq is sovereign and thus can have its own meetings with Iran and Syria; and again said that Iran must stop nuclear enrichment.
Domestic politicking isn't stopping at the water's edge. Preceding Bush today at an NGO-run conference coinciding with the NATO summit will be presidential contender Rudy Giuliani (R), currently the most popular politician in America, per a new poll. Also, Karl Rove is making an unusual appearance on this trip. White House spokesman Tony Snow said Rove is along because “there’s still plenty of politics going on back in Washington.” He said Rove has been e-mailing and calling Republicans trying to hash out an agenda for the lame duck session, and also monitoring a House runoff in Texas.
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The White House yesterday "conceded that Iraq has moved into a dangerous new phase of warfare requiring changes in strategy," and "U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan appealed for immediate steps to prevent the country from crumbling into all-out civil war," says the Washington Post. "The White House again resisted assertions that Iraq is now in a civil war, but that stance is increasingly hard to defend." The Post reports that Saudi Arabia "basically summoned Vice President Cheney for talks over the weekend," whereas the "visit was originally portrayed as U.S. outreach to its oil-rich Arab ally."
Per McClatchy, some regional experts think that Iraq's "cascading civil war" is beyond Washington's control. "If Iraq is to hold together and avoid an all-out bloodbath, they say, it will be because the country's warring factions step back from the brink and forge some sort of political compromise. That seems like a pipe dream after a weekend of the worst violence for Iraqi civilians since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion."
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"Bush will try to work out a deal on spending with the new Democratic majority on Capitol Hill, but will be prepared to veto bills that exceed his total budget or that slice away at defense needs," Bush budget director Rob Portman tells the Washington Times. Portman also suggests that "a center-right coalition could emerge on issues such as spending and extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts."
Bloomberg's Kevin Hassett predicts that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's overtures to Democrats on fixing Social Security won't result in cooperation. "What Paulson is about to learn is that it will be easy to get Democrats to the table on Social Security. He need only let them write the legislation and agree to every term they dictate. He can offer cosmetic face-saving measures that make the legislation look like a victory for the president. But substantively, he will have to cave on everything."
USA Today writes from the Texas border that the border fence "has come to reflect the disconnect between many landowners here and officials in Washington who see the project as a key part of the nation's strategy to slow illegal immigration. Here, where the impact of illegal immigration is greatest, the fence is widely viewed as an economic and environmental threat... The bill Bush signed does not include money to build the fence, and it's unclear how aggressively Congress will pursue the multibillion-dollar project once Democrats assume leadership of the House and Senate in January."
"...[C]ongressional workers are getting ready" for a raft of hearings on big government contracts, particularly defense contracts, says the Washington Post. "In September, the Project on Government Oversight, a watchdog group, began holding seminars for Hill workers of both parties on how to conduct investigations, including sessions on the anatomy of a government contract and skits in which oversight hearings were acted out."
The Chicago Tribune says that Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has called “for an official investigation into whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert broke the law by pushing for federal funding of a highway project near land he owned west of Chicago” -- which helped Hastert and two partners earn a profit of more than $3 million. “An aide to Hastert declined to comment Monday... But when the Tribune reported the story this summer, Hastert spokesman Ron Bonjean said the speaker simply made a well-timed real estate investment on the land, located between 3 and 5 miles from the highway route.”
The Houston Chronicle writes that, per exit polls taken by the William C. Velasquez Institute, Hispanic voters deserted the GOP on election day more because of dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and job creation than over immigration issues. “‘It was really the totality of issues that drove people to the polls,’ said Michael Bustamante, spokesman for the Velasquez Institute and the Latino Policy Coalition.”
Per a new Quinnipiac survey, Giuliani is the most popular politician in America. "The survey asked respondents to rate their feelings about the 20 leaders on a 'thermometer reading' scale of 0 to 100. Mr. Giuliani finished with a 64.2 rating. Trailing closely were Sens. Barack Obama, Illinois Democrat, and John McCain, Arizona Republican, who tallied 58.8 and 57.7. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was the top-ranking woman in the survey, finishing just behind Mr. McCain with a 56.1 rating... Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York Democrat, finished ninth in the survey with a 49-point ranking" -- and Sen. John Kerry (D) was last.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States, which is co-hosting the NGO conference in Riga that Giuliani is addressing today, is making transcripts and video available on the web.
NBC political analyst Charlie Cook, in his CongressDaily AM column, says that whether or not Giuliani runs is the biggest question on the Republican side -- along with whether or not he can win the nomination if he does in fact run.
CONTINUED >>
Some Wall Street analysts say that the Dow's 158.46-point drop yesterday, its worst in more than four months, "was long overdue given the Dow's uninterrupted run-up in recent weeks."
CNBC's Patti Domm points out that Fed junkies not only get to hear from chair Ben Bernanke today on the nation's economic outlook, but also from former chair Alan Greenspan, who speaks at a separate New York luncheon. Bernanke could be newsier, but certainly the markets will be listening to what both have to say. Greenspan will take questions; Bernanke will not.
Now that Ohio GOP Reps. Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt have been declared the winners of their races (though Pryce faces an automatic recount), the breakdown in the House currently stands at 232-201. The two undecided contests are in North Carolina, where GOP Rep. Robin Hayes is leading by 329 votes after a machine recount, but a manual recount begins on Wednesday, and in Texas, where GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla is competing in a runoff against former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez. The other undecided race is the runoff in Louisiana between Jefferson and Carter, but the seat won't change hands since both are Democrats.
The Columbus Dispatch writes that Pryce’s Democratic opponent, Mary Jo Kilroy, isn’t conceding just yet. “She said she’s not sure a recount will change the outcome, but at least it will be a worthwhile double-check of new voting equipment that was used for the first time in a general election.”
And although the AP has declared Schmidt the victor in her race, opponent Victoria Wulsin (D) has refused to concede -- but the contest should be certified by today, the Cincinnati Enquirer says.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Congress remains out for another week while Bush engages in some high-stakes negotiations abroad, first at the NATO summit in Latvia and then in Jordan at his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The White House calls the meeting part of Bush's effort to consult with a wide array of sources in deciding the best way forward in Iraq. It comes as the bipartisan Iraq Study Group and the Bush Administration near completion of their respective reports.
The White House is objecting this morning to descriptions of the Iraq conflict as a civil war. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, "The violence is primarily centered around Baghdad and Baghdad security and the increased training of Iraqi Security Forces is at the top of the agenda when [Bush and Maliki] meet later this week." Why does the terminology matter? Because, among other reasons, the greater the perception among Americans that Iraqis are fighting amongst themselves, the greater the doubts may be about continued US involvement and the greater the sentiment, perhaps, in favor of troop withdrawal. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in mid-October found 40% saying
Iraqis are fighting each other in a civil war, while 31% said Iraqis and foreign terrorists are fighting US troops, and 26% said it's some of both.
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"President Bush's agenda at a NATO summit this week will include
pressing alliance members to increase defense spending," per the AP. "Aides
say many U.S. allies are ill-equipped for modern military operations."
The Bush-Maliki meeting later this week "is fraught with danger for
Maliki. Both Shiite and Sunni leaders have criticized the prime minister;
one prominent Sunni religious leader warned that the violence in Iraq
could swell throughout the Middle East if the global community continues
to back Maliki. Adding to the tension, Shiite politicians led by
anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who form a key constituency for Maliki,
are threatening to boycott the government if Maliki goes ahead with
Thursday's meeting."
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"As President Bush struggles to recover" from the "thrashing" his party
took on election day, "his advisers are studying the Clinton and Reagan
models for lessons to revive his presidency," says the Washington Post.
"...[V]eterans of past administrations see patterns that offer hope
even to badly weakened presidents such as Bush. Adversaries who assume
that Bush has been permanently crippled by the Democratic takeover of
Congress, they say, misunderstand the opportunities still available to
him." For one thing, Bush might "be eager to veto Democratic spending
bills."
As we've noted before, though, one area on which Bush's prospects have
improved is on comprehensive immigration reform. The Boston Globe
reports that Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) and "other lawmakers are planning a
broader meeting this week of about 12 leading senators from both parties" to
discuss it. "They are hoping to have Congress vote on a final
immigration bill by mid-2007... Though no specific proposals have been floated,
the bill passed this year by the Senate is a likely starting point."
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"Given that GOP conservatives have prevented their colleagues on the House and Senate Appropriations panels from moving forward with plans to pass the nine remaining spending bills as an omnibus package, Republicans leaders are now expected to punt the issue to next year’s Democratic-led Congress rather than take the time to piece together major
spending legislation," Roll Call reports. "A CR that lasts until the beginning of February, or even the beginning of March, could put Democratic appropriators on a collision course with the Bush administration’s fiscal 2008 budget, which... is likely to include a request for an
emergency war supplemental spending bill that exceeds $100 million."
Rep. Tom Davis (R) plans to "make a run for" passage of his bill that would give the District of Columbia a voting representative in the House and balance out that safe Democratic seat by giving another seat to reliably Republican Utah. Legal scholars debate whether or not it's
constitutional, but "most observers believe President Bush would sign it, even though he said earlier this month, 'It's the first I've heard of it.'"
The Wall Street Journal says of some Democrats' push to create an
independent ethics board, "Opponents say such an office would encroach on
Congress's responsibility to police itself and could create an
unnecessary and expensive bureaucracy."
In his Sunday column, Bob Novak writes that newly elected House
Democratic Caucus chair Rahm Emanuel “has sent colleagues a one-page memo
emphasizing 'real lobbying and ethics reform' as the key to his party's
future electoral success. Emanuel… in the memo cited eight extra
seats won by Democrats in Republican districts because of scandals."
CONTINUED >>
Iowa Republicans have set August 11, 2007 as the date for their
signature straw poll at Iowa State in Ames.
The Washington Post's Broder reviews the Romney record as governor of a
state that may be more of an albatross than a boon for him in 2008.
"Aides to Arizona Sen. John McCain and [Romney] have begun interviewing
potential Iowa staff," per the Des Moines Register, which also reported
yesterday that Sen. Barack Obama (D) is, too.
McCain could face some familiar-seeming tough opposition in South
Carolina. The State reports that Romney has hired a consultant to his
presidential campaign who is "generally recognized as the architect behind
[President] Bush’s hard-hitting campaign in S.C. in 2000."
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/special_packages/election2006/16097773.htm
CONTINUED >>
The busiest week in several is ahead for the markets, CNBC's Patti Domm
notes. Leaving the lull of Thanksgiving week, investors will focus on
a big batch of important economic data that will show how the consumer
and the economy are faring. Retailers' sales, housing data, a second
look at third-quarter GDP data, and monthly auto sales top the list.
The Wall Street Journal says "U.S. auto sales are slowing and an
increasing number of forecasts say sales could fall next year to their lowest
level in nearly a decade."
Reviewing the Democratic agenda for the middle class, the Hartford
Courant says disagreement between Democrats and conservatives "over the
state of the middle class is one that, along with U.S. policies toward
Iraq, is destined to dominate congressional debate when members return
next month and continue well into next year."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today reviews lessons learned from the midterms by campaign
consultants and political scientists, including: that the White House's
strategy of cultivating the base at the expense of the middle failed, as did
their efforts to appeal to minorities; that a seemingly solid
Democratic Northeast now helps the party balance out a Republican South; and
that positive economic stats didn't make voters feel better about the
economy.
The manual recount starts today in North Carolina's 8th district, where
Rep. Robin Hayes (R) leads Democratic challenger Larry Kissell by 329
votes after a machine recount was finished before Thanksgiving. Kissell
has requested the manual recount, in which officials will hand count
ballots in 3% of precincts. If the sampled precinct recount varies from
the machine recount numbers, then a manual recount of all precincts
will be ordered, NBC's Doug Adams reports.
CONTINUED >>
First Read is taking a little post-election breather.
We will be posting your comments and updating the site as news warrants, but won't be publishing at 9:00 am ET again until Monday, November 27.
We wish all our regular readers, and those who might be stopping by for the first time, a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has decided to pick up and move her suite of offices across National Statuary Hall to the space now occupied by outgoing GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert.
Democratic speakers and leaders have been in the suite where Pelosi is currently situated for years. Pelosi herself has often marveled at how she finds herself in the same office used by one of her personal heroes, Tip O'Neill. But construction on the Capitol Visitors Center has shrunk that space considerably, and though Pelosi was known to harbor desires to stay where she is, her staff was insistent. Plus, the Hastert space on the west side of the Capitol has a balcony that affords a dramatic view down the National Mall.
So it turns out that she really will need to measure the drapes -- as President Bush suggested Democrats were doing in the weeks before the election.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Another potential presidential candidate is weighing in on Iraq. Retired Gen. Wes Clark (D) lays out his proposal in a USA Today op-ed: "The right approach is a coordinated diplomatic, legal, economic and security campaign drawing upon broader dialogue in the region and intensified political work inside Iraq," which would be achieved by establishing "an effective, sustained shuttle diplomacy within the region;" forming "a high-level interagency diplomatic team, representing the White House and secretaries of State and Defense and led by an experienced, respected diplomat;" and beginning "talks within Iraq, and with all its neighbors, based on a clear set of principles outlined by the team. The goal would be to seek the commitments necessary to achieve our aims inside Iraq and also advance U.S. interests in the region."
Democrats, meanwhile, are alleging that GOP Sen. John McCain's critique of the Bush Administration's approach to Iraq this past weekend represents a flip-flop. A longtime supporter of the war, McCain said on ABC that the Administration's current approach isn't working, calling it a "failed policy." He continues to press for more US troops in the region.
From NBC's Mark Hudspeth
Sen. Barack Obama (D) will address the Chicago Council on Global Affairs today. Per an advance look at his text, Obama will lay out a plan for Iraq that includes: 1) a phased redeployment of US troops from Iraq on a timetable that would begin in four to six months; 2) dedication of the remaining troops to protecting critical infrastructure and American enclaves, and to serving as a rapid reaction force; 3) a link between economic aid to tangible progress in reducing sectarian violence; and 4) a regional conference with US, Iraqi, Syrian, Turkish, Jordanian, and British leaders.
Obama also will make note of three lessons he thinks the United States should take from its experience in Iraq: 1) that the US government should be more modest in its belief that it can impose democracy on a country through military force; 2) that it is not enough to simply plan for war -- you must also plan for success; and 3) that the defeat of international terror will require the help of many nations.
From staff and wire reports
More developments on the 2008 front. On the Democratic side, Sen. Joe Biden told NBC's Matt Lauer on TODAY this morning that he plans to "jump in the water, I guess officially, sometime after the first of the year." Biden hasn't exactly been coy about his intention to run. Indeed, his frank talk about a presidential bid has reportedly drawn the attention of the FEC, which is keeping an ear out in case Biden starts sounding so much like a candidate that he needs to take some formal bureaucratic steps to back that up.
And Sen. John Kerry (D) said on FOX yesterday that his botched joke about President Bush's Iraq policy in late October won't get in the way should he decide to run. Kerry also said he'd be deciding "somewhere around the turn of the year."
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) of Massachusetts, meanwhile, is trying to use his final weeks in office in Massachusetts to build a national platform by calling on state legislators to vote on a same-sex marriage ban, or else he'll file a lawsuit asking the state's highest court to order that such a question be placed on the 2008 ballot. Legislators left for the year without voting on a ban, but have one day left to do so: their final day in session is January 2. Romney's term expires two days later.
From NBC's Doug Adams
By NBC's count, the Democrats currently hold a 232-198 edge in the House, with five races still undecided. All are Republican-held seats. Here's the latest on all the undecided races (two of which we should hear about by the end of today):
New Mexico's 1st district. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) holds about an 875-vote edge over challenger Patricia Madrid (D). Madrid has been steadily picking up votes since beginning the canvass down by over 1,100 votes. Republicans last night again claimed victory, saying Wilson's lead appeared safe. They appear to be correct. Election workers are finishing up counting provisional ballots today, and final results should be announced tonight, according to Bernalillo County officials.
CONTINUED >>
Special to First Read from Hotline
James Carville has been generating a wave of publicity in criticizing DNC Chair Howard Dean for not sufficiently funding competitive House races. He’s claimed the Democrats could have won another dozen seats if the DNC allocated more money in the campaign’s final weeks. The DNC has pushed back on Carville’s charges. Who’s right?
Fourteen Democratic candidates lost by two points or less, but many of the campaigns were funded to the hilt by the Democratic House campaign committee (DCCC). Lois Murphy certainly can’t blame her loss in PA 06 on inadequate funding; the DCCC spent over $3 million on her behalf. Patricia Madrid (NM 01) also had plenty of money – her razor-thin loss came because of an embarrassing gaffe at a debate. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH 15), Darcy Burner (WA 08), Phil Kellam (VA 02), Christine Jennings, and Tammy Duckworth (IL 06) were all among the top-funded candidates by the DCCC. (In Jennings’ case, the money was funneled through the Florida Democratic party.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
There was a vaguely familiar figure loitering with reporters outside the House Republican leadership elections this morning. It was a dapper young man with an easy smile who stood chatting with a small group of friends, and at length the press mob became aware of his presence. Voices were lowered and furtive gestures were made in his direction.
The mystery man was Kirk Fordham, the former chief of staff for former Rep. Mark Foley (R), and a central figure in the scandal that contributed to the fact that down the hall and behind closed doors Republicans were electing a minority leader and not a speaker. It turns out he was on the Hill tying up ends left loose after his hasty resignation as the scandal exploded. He was fresh off a two-and-a-half week vacation and seemed at ease.
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From NBC's Carrie Dann
A crowd of conservatives in Washington were doing a strange thing last night. Less than ten days after a bruising defeat at the polls that cost the GOP its dominance on both sides of the Capitol Rotunda, one of the nation's more prominent conservative groups got together and, well, had a few good laughs.
The Federalist Society, an organization of legal professionals, students, and scholars who advocate for a strict interpretation of the Constitution, is celebrating its 25th birthday at their annual conference in Washington, DC this week. So, instead of simply drowning their sorrows via the pappardelle pasta with beurre blanc served at last night's black-tie banquet, the attendees found humor in some unexpected places.
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
In a stand-pat election, Republican House members chose John Boehner as minority leader and Roy Blunt as whip, keeping their leadership team intact (except for Dennis Hastert's departure from it).
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
On a day when Nancy Pelosi took the first of two official steps toward becoming the first-ever woman Speaker of the House, she also took a self-inflicted political hit when her endorsed candidate for majority leader went down in defeat after a bitter contest that has temporarily cast a shadow over Democrats' plans for ethics reform, split the caucus, and left some hard feelings. Pelosi friends and allies say her decision to weigh in so heavily for old friend John Murtha shows her emphasis on loyalty, but that raises the question of whether loyalty could occasionally make her tone-deaf (a question that also comes up once in awhile about decision-making at other end of Pennsylvania Avenue).
House Republicans take their turn filling leadership slots today. Some races have been contested, but none have matched the acrimony of the Hoyer-Murtha bout. The outcome likely to be the most symbolically and strategically significant will be the election of Rep. John Boehner as minority leader.
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President Bush is in Vietnam, where he's returning to talk of his freedom agenda, which was set aside in the months leading up to the midterm elections. He continues to be dogged by questions about the situation in Iraq and similarities to the Vietnam war, and said in Hanoi that lessons from Vietnam can be applied in Iraq, including, "We'll succeed unless we quit." The arguably awkward implication of this statement comes after Bush's staff posted the wrong Vietnamese flag on the White House website, and after Bush failed to get Congress to pass the Vietnam trade pact he had wanted to tout upon his arrival, all giving the impression that this trip is a little snake-bit.
The New York Times: “In private, some White House officials concede it is spectacularly poor timing. Just as Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1968, Mr. Bush has ousted his longtime defense secretary and nominated a realist with ‘fresh eyes’ to replace him. Just like President Johnson in 1968, he is conducting a broad rethinking of strategy, and is hearing options he does not like.” More: “His aides argue that the analogies between these wars are mostly false. The comparisons will nonetheless be the unavoidable subtext of Mr. Bush’s every move as he travels.”
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"If the Hoyer camp's head count was correct going into yesterday's secret balloting, Pelosi and her allies may not have swayed a single vote for Murtha," reports the Washington Post.
The Post's Milbank: "For Pelosi, who led Democrats back to a majority in the House after 12 years, yesterday should have been a coronation for the first woman to be speaker. Instead, her party had plunged into fratricide, and cable news was running nonstop clips of Murtha talking with FBI agents posing as sheiks in the Abscam sting."
"Some Democrats said that an ally like Mr. Murtha in the No. 2 spot would give Mrs. Pelosi unchecked power," per the
