Settling Carville vs. Dean

Posted: Friday, November 17, 2006 3:28 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats

Special to First Read from Hotline
James Carville has been generating a wave of publicity in criticizing DNC Chair Howard Dean for not sufficiently funding competitive House races. He’s claimed the Democrats could have won another dozen seats if the DNC allocated more money in the campaign’s final weeks. The DNC has pushed back on Carville’s charges. Who’s right?

Fourteen Democratic candidates lost by two points or less, but many of the campaigns were funded to the hilt by the Democratic House campaign committee (DCCC). Lois Murphy certainly can’t blame her loss in PA 06 on inadequate funding; the DCCC spent over $3 million on her behalf. Patricia Madrid (NM 01) also had plenty of money – her razor-thin loss came because of an embarrassing gaffe at a debate. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH 15), Darcy Burner (WA 08), Phil Kellam (VA 02), Christine Jennings, and Tammy Duckworth (IL 06) were all among the top-funded candidates by the DCCC. (In Jennings’ case, the money was funneled through the Florida Democratic party.)

And in some conservative districts, the DCCC strategically declined to spend money because they felt national advertising from Democrats would hurt their candidates. Gary Trauner, who narrowly lost to Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY AL), was the “victim” of such thinking.

That leaves six other races where more money could potentially have made a difference. Larry Kissell, who lost by less than 1 percent to GOP Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC 08), certainly would have benefited from some cash; the DCCC didn’t give his campaign a dime. But it wasn’t a lack of DCCC funds, it was a lack of strategic foresight in this case.

Linda Stender did better-than-expected against GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-NJ 07), but the DCCC would have had to enter the extremely-costly New York media market. Without the benefit of Monday morning quarterbacking, would that have been a worthwhile investment?

The losing Democratic candidates that legitimately could have a beef are: Tessa Hafen (NV 03), Dan Maffei (NY 25), Victoria Wulsin (OH 02) and Eric Massa (NY 29). These candidates ran in the type of third-tier races where the DCCC was only able to fund late. The New York environment was uniquely favorable this year, and another week of attack ads against Rep. Jim Walsh (R) perhaps could have brought him down.

Tessa Hafen was a late-emerging candidate who benefited from a mini-scandal surrounding Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV 03). An earlier investment here could have helped take Porter down. And, because of her historically Republican district, GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt managed to avoid the September attacks that her Republican counterparts received at the hands of the DCCC.

There’s realistically only four -- certainly no more than six seats -- that perhaps could have been won with extra cash. Extra money could have made a small difference, but certainly not to the degree that Carville has been suggesting. Dean may have made strategic blunders in the past, but his fiscal responsibility here seems like the wiser course.

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Comments

The Carville/Emanuel/McAuliffe/Begala syndicate pout whenever their candidate (including the atrocious candidacy of John Kerry) doesn't get their way. They obstructed Dean's candidacy in '04 because he didn't believe in their warmed over warmongering conservatism and they still can't seem to get over it, even now. How sad.

Tim Grant, Seattle, WA (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 4:38 PM)

I like James Carville. I have a lot of respect for his talent and his skill at running and managing a campagn. Having said that, he is wrong on this one. Howard Dean is right. He's right because the results speak for themselves. The objective for the Democratic party in the 2006 election was to take majority control of the House and the Senate. Mission Accomplished. Why diminish the success by whining and nit-picking over "wouldn't be great if we had an even bigger majority?" By-gones. Enjoy the success of the election; put it behind you; and get on with the business of governing. The voters are basically saying, "Republicans screwed it all up. Now it's your turn." Democrats would be wise to get busy; get down to work; and stop second guessing what dollars should have been spent where on inane TV commercials that we all find useless anyway.

Dave Miller, Miamisburg, OH (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 6:27 PM)

Hey: One should be happy where we are. Lets not reinact the past and destroy ourselves. Howard Dean did a great job, the past is over, it's time to get to work and show the country why they voted the Dems in. It's time to get something done, shut up the right wing press with results, and ethical leadership.

Dennis Boie (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 6:46 PM)

I am a life long Democrat and have voted in every election since Kennedy. Every canidate that I voted for here in Colorado won. It was worth waiting in line for two hours. We nearly have a blue state now. I wish that James Carvel could be more consiliatory and helpful. Prehaps he is so cranky because he is sleeping with the enemy. That could be a very prickly situation. I am hoping that Dean stays on. He certainly did a better job on this election than anyone else before him. I would say to James Carvel, what have you done lately for the Democratic party? We Democrats have a big job ahead of us and we need to be united. In the words of Rodney King, "can't we all just get along?"

Jacquie Vaux, Denver, CO (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 6:49 PM)

Jacquie Vaux, Denver, CO (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 6:50 PM)

I think Dean did well, but your article misses Carville's point. Carvill praised the DCCC and its spending, it was the DNC's spending under Dean that he complained about.

John Doe, Seattle, Wash. (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 6:57 PM)

Dean did a great job. Why the DLC (the Zionist wing of the Democrat party) is using Carville as a mouthpiece against Dean, when they should be thanking him, is a mystery.

Howard Roarke (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 6:58 PM)

Carville/McAuliffe/Begala need to write books and leave the battle to those like Dean who do not live and die on the Washingtton circut. There may be hope for Emanuel, we will see. David McBurnett

David McBurnett (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 7:25 PM)

Dean is the only back bone the democrats had between 2002-04. Sounds like Carville can't see anyone speaking for the democrats except his old boss Clinton and company!!

Dave Urbanski, Seymour, IN (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 7:37 PM)

I used to be so enamored with Carville. Politics is evidently NOT a team sport. What destroyed Dean's presidential bid again.......oh yeah the "liberal media's" coverage of Dean pumping up his campaign supporters after a loss. That seems reasonable. He sure is crazy. Crazy like a fox!

Erin Clymer, Elmwood, NE (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 7:42 PM)

Carville should knock it off. Dean strategy along with the work done by everyone else is what brought us the victory in the House and Seante. We are miles ahead of the results in 2002 and 2004. We almost pulled it off in CA-CD4. Thanks Howard, James, Nancy, Rhaem, Harry and Chuck.

Joe Pepi, South Lake Tahoe, CA (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 7:44 PM)

Duckworth (IL 06), lost because even though she is an Iraqi Vet who lost both legs in country, the Veterans of Foreign Wars endorsed her Republican challenger, Peter Roskam who never served in the military. That is an abomination, even if Duckworth opposes the war in Iraq! The VFW has lost a lot of street creditability on this one.

Robert Pike Santa Clarita, California (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 7:46 PM)

A year ago mainstream pundits (like David Broder) didn't think Democrats could win the US House majority, and that only 16 seats were "in play." Thanks to Howard Dean's inspiration of candidates and volunteers across the country -- which are what every campaign depends on, more than money -- Democrats took both the US House AND Senate. A "miracle," in Sen. Reid's words! To see Mr. Opportunist himself, Rahm Emmanuel, try to claim credit for this is astonishing, especially when most of his picks lost (despite the millions he spent), and most of Dean's won. Let no-one forget that back in 2002-03 Rahm favored the invasion of Iraq! (I heard him say so, myself.) He wanted Democrats to use this vaguely homo-erotic theme: "muscular projection of force." The DNC-DLC split is over policy, not electoral strategy. The DLC depends 100% on corporations for its funding (Koch Industries was an early funder, look them up if that doesn't tell you all you need to know). In turn the DLC promotes policies that benefit those large firms, to the detriment of small businesses and the US economy oveall. Go, Howard! Yeeaaagggghhhhhh!!!! :-))))

John Doe, Seattle, Wash (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 8:50 PM)

I think both Dean and Emanuel did a good, not great job and Carville has his points too. Let's not forget, this may have been a once in a generation opportunity. I volunteered for Duckworth in IL-06. Emanuel claims he needed another million from Dean for Duckworth's commercials the last weekend. I know he finally had a good commercial in the can for Duckworth (about Iraq) and it never made it on the air. That one unlike the other DCCC commercials would have helped every Dem candidate in Chicagoland. Maybe Rahm thought he had a promise from Dean to go all in at the finish, I don't know. If that's what Carville's talking about maybe he has a point. Remember how angry people were at Kerry for having $15 million in the bank after the election in 2004? Miscommunication or something else? Seems to me if you borrow $10 million in the last month of an election that stands to be a landslide it's not for hiring field operatives in Paducah next spring. Dean should have spent it one way or another. Rahm raised tons of money, worked tirelessly to do it and expanded the number of DCCC funded races to 4 tiers. That part was a damn good job. But because the first DCCC commercial for Duckworth was so over the top nobody believed it. It undercut Tammy's credibility and fired up Roskam's fundy base. That did more harm than good. Carville had another important point. Stan Greenberg's polling for his Democracy Corp in October showed if Dems went positive we stood to go up by 18% instead of only 6% fighting back Rove style. I think that would have worked here in IL-06. All but the most diehard partisans were sick of this nasty election by the second week of October. We needed a lot of those low info indies that were turned off by negative ads to overcome Roskam's fundy base. According to last Sunday's Chi. Trib article about Emanuel he didn't want to hear it. I wish he would have listened. People are sick of Rovian BS. From the DCCC we got $43,000 for election day doorhangers with Tammy's name on one side and our downballot candidates on the other and we Duckworth volunteers hit some precincts two or three times on election day with those. It wasn't much but it's more than the zilch we usually get. We got nothing from Dean here in DuPage County as far as I know. The voter lists we had for Duckworth were old and lousy and the software was worse. We have to do better. We're a red pocket in a blue state so I guess we're on our own as far as the DNC is concerned until Utah and Mississippi turn at least purple. All I can say is we have to keep working it and our heads up. The boy king is still president and he's the gift that keeps on giving. We have some good people led by Reid and Pelosi who will hopefully pass some legislation we can be proud of and indies will appreciate. We should be able to win more seats next time and I hope a few more of them are in suburban Chicago.

Mark Garrity, Downers Grove, Illinois (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 9:32 PM)

Thank you for this excellent, specific analysis. My fellow Dean supporters and Dean delegates understand the importance of Dean's approach: authentic leadership, being a "servant leader," building a team from the ground up for the long haul. We are immensely grateful to Gov. Dean and wish him today a very "Happy Birthday"!!

Rebecca Wolfe (Sent Friday, November 17, 2006 11:29 PM)

James Carville is worried that the gravy train is leaving the station without him. The Beltway Democratic consultants get paid based on how much they spend, not based on results they achieve. Howard Dean's 50-state strategy puts the power in the hands of the state parties and the people, not guys like Loserboy Bob "Oh-for-Eight" Shrum and yes, James Carville. Of course Carville is pissed, he brings home the bacon based on the old Beltway way. Except that it doesn't work. People-Powered Howard's way is the way to go.

JJ in NJ (Sent Monday, November 20, 2006 4:18 PM)

I've always liked Carville, but I think he should stay with his day job as a crazy comedian. Dean is one of the few Democrats who share my opinion that the Republican candidates are a passel of bought-off crooks. I think Dean would make a good president if it's possible to get elected without being a flunky for big biz. It's never been tried as far as I know.

JIrby, Colorado Springs, Co (Sent Monday, November 20, 2006 6:40 PM)

Just rejoice and thank God that at LAST we have some hope that SOMEBODY will open the closed doors in DC and stop Dubya's dictatorship. We are all so sick of him and his cronies, their arrogance and thirst for complete control and his rubber stamped congress. There is cause for rejoicing on that one issue alone. And just maybe some sanity will be restored to our government where this spoiled brat has had it his way for way too long - no matter what the cost to our country and our people. I, for one, feel safer now that Dubya has had his wings clipped, Rumsfeld is unemployed and hopefully there will be some oversight in government. It has been a long time coming. So, no matter who helped to make it happen - we can all be thankful to them and to our fellow Americans who went to the polls and said ENOUGH ALREADY! We should pray for those who are now in power - they will need all our prayers and support to try to clean up even SOME of the mess of King George and his court. But -- at last we have HOPE again!! And that is enough for me to have a very thankful Thanksgiving.

jj.ga (Sent Monday, November 20, 2006 6:41 PM)

OK, I understand that politics isn’t beanbag. But if a political party is being credited for its wins at the local level by the national party “picking” candidates, then aren’t the “pickers” the same folks who years ago were called members of “Tammany Hall”?

bill (Sent Tuesday, November 21, 2006 11:22 PM)

Per Robert in Santa Clarita--I wonder why the VFW supported Tammy Duckworth's opponent? Maybe the GOP slipped them a huge donation?

Olivia, Peoria, Ill. (Sent Saturday, November 25, 2006 2:27 PM)

Politics is dirty; always will be. "Selecting" candiates toi run has gone on for years, using polling data, demographics, etc. This is how Abraham Lincoln was selected in 1860 and how JFK won out over Adali Stevenson and Hubert Humphrey in 1960. When millions in funds is at stake, the national party wants to make sure the one they back is the one who can win. Coincidentally, the Congressional seat in San Antonio Tx held by GOP Henry Bonilla. He had to win 50% + 1 in order to avoid a run off. He had no less the 6 Democrats run agianist him, and bonilla still was able to get about 40% of the vote. Kind of sad....Democrats could not have the confidence in 1 or 2folks, they allowd a gang to run. Still did not help. Politics is dirty...

Just an American, Dallas TX (Sent Saturday, November 25, 2006 3:47 PM)

I'm looking for information on house races that the Democrats picked up despite projections, such as Nancy Boyda KS-2. She won despite every projection. The betting lines had her at 0% chance of winning. Her victory can only be attributed to something different and unique happening this election cycle. My question is how many races were there like hers and should these victories be attributed to the 50 state strategy?

James Salt (Sent Friday, December 01, 2006 3:09 PM)

There's no need to buy into the expensive NY media market for NJ7, where Linda Stender almost took down Mike Ferguson. The entire district has cable television where ads are much cheaper and can be targeted to specific towns and viewing types. It is just a little work. The DCCC spent more than $3M on Tammy Duckworth in Ohio and $50,000 on NJ7. Duckworth lost by 4 points, Stender by 1.6 percent. This isn't Monday morning quarterbacking, but the facts as we saw them here on the ground early. The DCCC has, once again, done a nice job of saying how much they like the NJ7 candidate and a lousy job of helping them win.

Nathan, Watchung, NJ (Sent Friday, December 01, 2006 7:22 PM)

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