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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Loose ends in the House

Posted: Friday, November 17, 2006 3:51 PM by Elizabeth Wilner

From NBC's Doug Adams
By NBC's count, the Democrats currently hold a 232-198 edge in the House, with five races still undecided. All are Republican-held seats. Here's the latest on all the undecided races (two of which we should hear about by the end of today):

New Mexico's 1st district. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) holds about an 875-vote edge over challenger Patricia Madrid (D). Madrid has been steadily picking up votes since beginning the canvass down by over 1,100 votes. Republicans last night again claimed victory, saying Wilson's lead appeared safe. They appear to be correct. Election workers are finishing up counting provisional ballots today, and final results should be announced tonight, according to Bernalillo County officials.

North Carolina's 8th district. Going into today, GOP Rep. Robin Hayes led Democratic challenger Larry Kissell by 450 votes. Final election results will be announced this afternoon. Election officials from the 10 counties stretching from Charlotte to Fayetteville are meeting today to double-check results and count provisional ballots. There are about 1,500 provisionals to be counted across the 10 counties. Yesterday, lawyers for Hayes asked officials to throw out most of the provisionals, saying they were illegally cast. Under North Carolina law, after the vote is certified today, challengers have one business day (i.e. Monday) to request a machine recount, which would be completed within 48 hours. Kissell, a schoolteacher whose grassroots campaign ran much closer than expected, said he does intend to seek a recount.

Ohio's 2nd district. This one could get interesting, and we may not know the answer for another two weeks. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) leads Democratic challenger Victoria Wulsin by 2,865 votes. But more than 9,700 votes are still uncounted -- 1,500 absentee ballots and more than 8,200 provisionals. Counting will begin on Monday in the three counties just east of Cincinnati that make up this district. Based on past elections, 25% to 35% of provisions can be expected to be disqualified. Final counting must be completed by November 28. If the margin shrinks to less than .05% (about 1,200 votes), it will trigger an automatic recount under Ohio law. Vote-counting could have started tomorrow, but county officials decided to let workers have the weekend off to watch the Ohio State-Michigan football game.

Ohio's 15th district. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) leads Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy by 3,536 votes. But nearly 20,000 absentee and provisional ballots are still uncounted in this district that includes Columbus and its western suburbs. The high number of provisional ballots cast stems from confusion over a new voter ID requirement that led to a lawsuit last week. Final results will be released November 27, according to Franklin County officials. Kilroy is optimistic that she can make up the lost ground. Her campaign has been airing TV and radio ads urging voters who cast provisionals to contact election boards to make sure they've provided proper documentation so their ballots will count. Kilroy's campaign says the majority of the provisional ballots stem from voter ID confusion at the polls, and they argue that transient voters tend to favor Democrats.

Florida's 13th district. A hand recount of votes began yesterday in this Sarasota area district formerly represented by Katherine Harris (R), who lost her US Senate bid. In this open-seat race, Republican Vern Buchanan leads Democrat Christine Jennings by just under 400 votes. Buchanan has claimed victory but Jennings refuses to concede. Both candidates were in Washington this week participating in new member orientation. Final recount vote totals are to be submitted to the state by today at 5:00 pm ET, and a final tally released on Monday.

But the real issue is not the recount results -- it's allegations of electronic voting machine problems in Sarasota County, the largest county (and the most Democratic) in the district. The machines reported that more than 18,000 people -- one in eight voters -- undervoted. That is, they made choices in other races, but not in the congressional race. The Sarasota undervote rate is significantly higher than other counties. Possible reasons range from a computer glitch, to voter disgust with the intensely negative campaign. Some electronic voting experts also argue that the county's ballot design made it easy to overlook the congressional race, which was on a different screen than the governor and US Senate races. Florida Secretary of State Sue Cobb has ordered an audit of the Sarasota voting machines, and both sides are in court arguing about the details.

In addition to the above five seats -- there are two runoffs scheduled for early December: 1) in Texas' 23rd district, currently held by Rep. Henry Bonilla (R). The exact date hasn't been sit but it will be no sooner than Dec. 12th. And 2) in Louisiana's 2nd district, where Rep. William Jefferson (D) will face a fellow Democrat in a runoff on December 9 (so, that seat will stay in Democratic hands).

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Comments

MINUTEMAN PARTY IN 2008 PLEASE!!!
LOL----one never knows how the grass roots will rise and topple petty fiefdoms of the Beltway.The people will speak...soon.
How many "mysterious" e-voting machine incidents do the citizens of this country need before they realize the fix is in?
Florida race in contention AGAIN. In the race vacated by Katherine Harris. You cannot make this up. Machines in question this time. Not HANGING CHADS.
Hanging issues- Rep Rangel and his politically motivated call for a draft. A call that will never happen. Why a draft- when the military chiefs do not want "forced" service? Why a draft, in which women would be exempt- is that fair? Why a draft, which the rules would be written by lawmakers trying to deflect as much heat from their districts, etc? Rep Rangel- want to put the ball in play? A draft, in which their were no exemptions for college students; no exemptions due to family crisis; no exemptions due to medical problems, as lon as the person could be used in some maner in military service; no exemptions for sole surviving children; all genders, races, sexual preferences, creeds ,income were put in the pool. Oh, yes- any elected public person at national level- your kids are put in the pool also- no strings being pulled by Mom n Dad w/ wealth, influence. This way, folks like Ted Kennedy would have served in the military, instead of getting an out by Dad Joe. Hey- Rep Rangel- get Senator Kennedy to cosponsor the draft bill- yea right!
Actually, Rep Rangel knows there will never be a draft. It is highly unpopular among the American people, and any party that voted for a draft would be out of commission for decades. The reason Rep Rangel is pushing for this bill to come to the floor is to promote a national discussion about who ends up joining our military and why. Rep Rangel represents the Harlem area of New York, and as he looks around, he has noticed that it isn't wealthy kids who join our all-volunteer force -- the kids joining are poor, without much hope of paying for a college education. Joining the army is often the only way to improve their chances at life. A draft will never, never be passed, thanks to the history behind it, so there is no need to be an alarmist about it. Rep Rangel accomplished just what he meant to do when you posted your message: he began a national discussion.
Chrisella, thank you for explaining this issue. If anyone actually listened to the man and his words, that is exactly what he was trying to do. Unfrotunately, we get sound bityes on our so-called news stations and a lot of us do not have time to go back and read what they really said and why.
Army recruiter here...my area is diverse in all aspects. Had 2 college grads from Univ of Md recently join.one wishes to be airborne soldier another to pay off college loans. One female, from a fairly well off family is seeking military service in order to get into the intelligence field. Still yet, 4 young men, 2 black, 1 Asian, 1 caucasiian are joing in Dec, in order to get college money for future. All these fine Americans KNOW the rsik and hardships of military service. They seek betterment of life, instead of being couch potato, chroinc chatdork or a waste of life blogger.
We all know rangel is playing to the cameras, so his minority constinuents can feel safe he is tyring to help them out. does not amount to a pile of beans, all his hot air, etc. His area will be taxation, not military legislation. Tell Rangel to stick to fiscal matters and keep away from the camera. making emotional yet weak statements that have no grit or substances is already handled quite well by the National Democrat Minority reps: Rev Al and Rev Jackson, two guys living off the public for a long time. They are experts at hot air- keep Rangle focused on taxes and spending.
Minuteman 2008? Is this an xenophobic, isolationist group, seeking to toss out 1000% of all undocumented immigrants? What if we begin a more intelligent approach, first by policing all the undoucmented criminals in the US and get rid of them. Then, we enact a guest worker program, good for 24-48 months, for a price of let's say $1000-$3000 dollars. Tese applicants, once cleared thru NCIC and Interpol, can work in the US. Their employers will have to match state and local taxes, for social services. Thier pay wioll also have deductions for state and local social services. A small federal fee will be deducted monthly- to pay for the guest worker program. If this person is convicted of a crime (felony?), they are deported. If they remain out of work for a 6 month period, they are sent home. This way, there is a system to pay for neccessary social services and the ability to track employment. Concurrently, we speed up processing of LEGAL requests for visas and citizenship. Those here that have had a visa expire are given 1 chance to renew, must pay fees for renewal. We cannot, as a nation, become isolationist nor xenophobic. We must understand that a border fence and downright draconian measures against immigrants is viewed world wide as tyrannical, despotic and inhumane. This country has work for those WANTING to do it, it is just that employers pay nothing into state and local coffers for social services. If European countries and Middle East countries can run a guest worker program, why can't America follow suit.


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