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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



First glance

Posted: Tuesday, December 12, 2006 8:57 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Suicide bombings in Baghdad have killed at least 56 and injured over 200.  During day two of his three-day listening tour/policy review on Iraq, President Bush takes part in a video teleconference with military commanders and the outgoing US Ambassador to Iraq, then meets with the Vice President of Iraq.  Yesterday, White House spokesman Tony Snow said that while the White House hopes that Bush can deliver his "new way forward plan" before Christmas, the timing is "not locked down" and the various reviews are not yet complete, per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell.

Congress may have left for the holidays, but two House races still remain somewhat less than settled.  One is the unusual case of Florida's 13th district, where Republican Vern Buchanan was declared the winner by 369 votes.  Democratic candidate Christine Jennings (D) has not only sought a new, court-ordered election, but is asking the soon-to-be Democrat-run House Administration Committee to seat her instead of Buchanan.  The committee is expected to make a recommendation in January.

The other race should be decided in a runoff today between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D), in Texas' massive 23rd district.  Recent polls suggest that Rodriguez is closing in on Bonilla.  The contest has gotten some national attention because the roots of its competitiveness lie in Tom DeLay's controversial Texas redistricting, because it's the last race still technically unsettled, and because it's a close one that could result in one final blow to the GOP in the 2006 midterm elections.  The current breakdown in the House, counting Buchanan's win, is 232-202.

In a crowded special election last month, ordered after the US Supreme Court forced the state to redraw Bonilla's district in its decision on the Texas redistricting case, the incumbent grabbed 49% of the vote, just short of the majority he needed to avoid the runoff.  While Bonilla is probably the favorite (that 49% puts him in a much better position than the victorious Rep. William Jefferson was in before his runoff), his redrawn district isn't as friendly to him as it was before the Supreme Court intervened.

The San Antonio Express says the runoff  “either will be an exclamation point at the end of the Democratic takeover of Congress or a question mark hinting at the potential for a Republican comeback."  Bonilla "said Monday he considered his race the first of the 2008 cycle.”  The Democratic House campaign committee has spent nearly $1 million to help Rodriguez and erase Bonilla's considerable fundraising advantage.  But they are also aware that Rodriguez is the same candidate who lost his primary in 2004, which knocked him out of Congress, and again in March 2006, when he was unable to gain his old seat back.

Congressional Democrats are attempting an end run around Republicans' effort to dump an array of spending bills on them come January and put them on the spot over their commitment to earmark reform.  Because the GOP-run Congress adjourned without completing 11 of the 13 appropriations bills that fund the government for this year, NBC's Ken Strickland reports, incoming Democratic leaders say they've been left with "fiscal mayhem" and won't deal with it, either.  Instead, they plan to scrap current budget proposals and keep spending for most federal programs and agencies at last year's levels.  "Unfortunately, there are no good options available to us to complete the unfinished work of the Republican Congress," said incoming Appropriations Committee chairs Robert Byrd and David Obey in a statement.

Such a move could have a far-reaching effect, Strickland says.  Many agencies and departments previously budgeted for increases this year would likely have to go without them.  And millions of dollars for special home-state projects -- a/k/a earmarks -- attached to those bills would be eliminated this year.  "We will place a moratorium on all earmarks until a reformed process is put in place," the statement says, "and put an end to the abuses that have harmed the credibility of Congress."

Democratic leaders insist it's important to "clear the decks quickly" to focus on other funding priorities, specifically the President's 2008 budget (which they'll get in February) and another emergency funding request for the Iraq war of about $100 billion.  This will also allow them to start work on their "100 hours" agenda without being distracted by spending bills.  Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi signed off on the plan, saying, "It is not a perfect solution, but it is the best available given the fiscal mess the 109th Congress has left behind."

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bush is putting on his dog and pony show acting like he is listeneing to other points of view and in the end he will stay the course and lie about it by calling it the new way forward. more americans will die everyday bacause of bush and his far right wing ideology. when is enough enough? america spoke in the election and bush is not listening. it is time for impeachment proceedings to start.
Chill Mike..do not sound like deposed Rep McKinney. Just because Bush aint hearing does not give grounds to impeach. If so, each branch of the government would be tossing charges of impeachment due to another not listening. This could have been leveled at LBJ for the Vietnam mess; tossed at Truman for not using enough force in korea or even FDR for allowing Pearl Harbor to be attacked in order to be drawn into WWII; after how many millions of Europeans had been killed by the German Werhmact. Bush will have his day in court, but it will not include impeachment. If one goes after him for following the bad intel, then 85% of congress will folow him to the dockets, for they are just as culpable and they gave him the authorization and power to do so.
Mike, I think the fact Evil Uncle Dick as VP is the stopper on the impeachment proceedings. Does the Vp like cigars? Maybe Monica could bring him a box for Christmas?......then we'd have grounds:-)
New way forward means same old story. Bush is trying to make it seem as if his tired old strategy can still be salvaged. As the body count piles higher the President seeks justification instead of solutions.
The basic fact is that we are in a quagmire in Iraq. Stuck between stay the course or bring the troops home. Two many decisions for the decider. The decider would rather have one trash can color choice . The choice between red or blue is confusing to the decider, so if he only had red or blue to chose from the decision would be easy. Too many choices and not enough time to decide. After all the twins are safely traveling abroad or safely at home, so there is no need to rush to conclusions. No immediate terror threat looms for the family. It is time to decide if we want to leave the Iraqi quagmire now or leave the Iraqi quagmire in two years so the democrats can be blamed for the withdraw that will eventually occur.
I have totally disagreed with the Iraq since the beginning. that siad, I know I will listen to the President's sppeech and see what happens in the next two years. I will be waiting to see if he proves me wrong.
Regarding the Florida unsettled House race. Please tell me that you can not go to a committee and ask to be pronounced the winner if in fact after two recounts you are not. Will all of our elections be litigated in the future and left up to the lawyer sharks?
The only W will alter his plans is for a palace revolt to occur. VP still has a tight grip on certain members of staff and is blocking change. I think that if W would agree to this forum; we put him in a meeting with 500 or so Americans and allow him to HEAR unfiltered opinion from those who bear the burden for misguded policies. Maybe, just maybe that wolud touch deep into his senses and cause him to really reevaluate his positions. Now, do not go off on here lambasting W, for it does no good. Maybe, if we as a group, write the GOP HQ, asking for an open forum meeting w/ the Pres, it could occur. Or am I just sitting in a ravine, smoking a bowl of product broufght across the open, unsecured borders?
CitizenJJ, there is precedent in FL having courts decide who won an election. It was not necessary to have the most votes to be declared the winner in that case....
Owen, That thing went clear to the Supreme Court. This thing has not cleared any legal hurdle. If someone could be declared a winner without the votes at this point, we are all in a heap of trouble no matter what flavor you decide to be. Talk about rights being taken away!
Who knows who had the most votes in the Florida election? 18,000 votes somehow mysteriously just disappeared.
CitizenJJ, you are correct, my bad...I just couldn't help myself with the sarcasm this a.m., I wasn't trying to be serious, just throwing out a bit of hash for breakfast..
Rick, no mystery. The machines were tested, the votes recounted twice. The campaign was so filthy that people were turned off and did not vote for either candidate. What we need are some decent candidates but they are hard to find in today's climate of antagonism. Who among us is so squeaky clean that a dirty trick campaign could not make us look like Satan?
hey army man im an ex-marine and viet vet so dont play the military game with me cause it wont work. as far as impeachment he should be impeached because he lied and is incompetent to boot and thats plenty reason for impeachment(at least it was when clinton lied) including cheney.
The do nothing 109th republican congress thought they would be able to say the the new democratic congress was spending as much money or more then they were by dropping the unfunded buget on them. I am glad that the 110th Congress has foiled them by just saying everything will stay the same as last year and go ahead from there. Also, we currently do not have any control over what the war in Iraq is costing us because the Prez is always sending supplemental requests that do not show up until it is to late to do anything about how much it is costing. Please have him put the request in with the rest of the budget so we can see how much Bush's war is really costing us.
Citizen JJ, I can agree many eliible didn't vote. But in Sarasota County, 18,000 more people went to the polls and voted. However, the ESS voting machines totals are that many votes short. Machines were tested but still no one can account why these votes were not counted. We all should be concerned about that, Republicans, Democrats, Independants and everyone else. Fair elections call for ALL votes to be counted. If a paper trail is not available, this may be the first election that is disputed due to failure of electronic voting machines, but it certainly will not be the last.
1) It wasn't black box voting in FL-13 that caused the undervote, it was a very poorly designed ballot (again). Races that used the same format as the FL-13 election (example: Florida's AG race) showed the same statistical likelihood of undervoting. You don't hear about the Florida AG race because it wasn't close enough for the undervotes to matter. In short, this election wasn't stolen it was mismanaged. This is a big difference. 2) I'm not sure that Congress can declare someone a winner when they haven't won an election, but they CAN decide if Buchanan will be seated or not. If they choose to, they can instead declare the seat vacant and force a new election. That is a terrible idea on the part of the Democratic Party, should they go that route. But it is a possible course of action
Impeach BUSH and CHENEY asap.
Citizenjj [[Rick, no mystery. The machines were tested, the votes recounted twice. The campaign was so filthy that people were turned off and did not vote for either candidate.]] --- Nope. That's not what happened. It was only in heavily Democratic areas that suspiciously large numbers of people supposedly didn't vote for either candidate. And several hundred voters have come forward who said they tried to vote for Democrat Jennings but the machines wouldn't register their vote. And the machines they used leave no paper trail so there's NOTHING to recount. [[What we need are some decent candidates but they are hard to find in today's climate of antagonism.]] --- Todays climate of antogonism is exclusively the fault of the scary rightwingers that dominate the GOP. They're the ones who pulled every dirty trick in the book (e.g. the racist "Call me Harold" ad) in their drive to achieve a "permanent Republican majority" (i.e., a one-party dictorship). One of the things the new Congress should do is fix the broken and corrupt election system. Unfortunately, Bush would probably veto such legislation since he's been the main beneficiary of electoral corruption in recent years.
John Doe [[It wasn't black box voting in FL-13 that caused the undervote, it was a very poorly designed ballot (again).]] --- That's not what this CBS news article says: http://tinyurl.com/ydxukg "The Jennings/Buchanan race was hard to miss on the touch screen iVotronic machines supplied by ES&S. It was the second contest listed on the ballot, right between high profile races for Senator and Governor. " Plus, your comparison to the attorney general contest is really lame. That's just the sort of office that people do tend to ignore. But the race for Congress is not, especially since control of Congress hung in the balance. A new election should be held. Not because the Democrats need the seat in Congress, they obviously don't. It should be held to prevent tteh same thing from happening in the 2008 elections. Whether the problem was accidental or accidentally on purpose, corporate clients of Bush should NOT be supplying voting machines for US elections at all, especially not when there's no paper record of the votes cast.
Seattle Sue, get off your one trick pony.


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