Giuliani, Clinton lead in new survey

Posted: Tuesday, April 10, 2007 11:02 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans

From NBC's Mark Murray
New Yorkers Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton have commanding leads in their parties' respective presidential nomination contests, according to a new national Gallup poll. In the GOP field, Giuliani is at 38%, McCain is at 16%, Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich are tied at 10%, and Romney is at 6%. In the Democratic field, Clinton leads Obama, 38%-19%, followed by Edwards at 15%.

Some interesting findings in the poll, especially on the GOP side:
-- McCain's 16% is his poorest showing in the Gallup poll this year, perhaps a sign of the tough last few weeks he's had.
-- Thompson is in double digits, even though he hasn't jumped into the race. For that matter, 20% of the GOP vote is going to candidates who haven't yet decided if they're running (Thompson and Gingrich).
-- And Romney is in fifth place, despite winning his party's first-quarter money race and despite being an Establishment favorite among many Republicans.

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Comments

thompson has a deep voice and seems self assured but isnt that the same qualities cheney had that made him seem attractive? and how wrong was cheney for the job? very, very wrong. so what does thompson really bring to the table? newts a loser for sure.

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 11:26 AM)

If Clinton and Obama get to close then I think one of them will wind up being the other's VP nominee. It would be nice to see a Gulianni/McCain or Gulianni/Romney ticket. Either way we're all going to have to buckle our seatbelts because it's going to be a fierce election year in '08.

Mike PAV (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 11:36 AM)

Hi Mikeeg,abdn,wa Thompson has a lot of qualities that Conservatives like but I'm not sure if he appeals to Liberals. If he did decide to run he would have good a shot of getting in front of Gulianni in the polls. Plus he has the Hollywood connection. I don't think he's near as unapprochable or cold like Cheney at least not in any of the interviews I've seen of him.

Mike PAV (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 11:50 AM)

I've read that Edwards has a huge lead in Iowa among the people who actually vote in the primary. I read that Hillary Clinton is not as popular among party activists. The article doesn't say if its likely primary voters or were just party members with this opinion.

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 12:13 PM)

mike pav as with all politicians we will have to wait and see what fred has to offer. I havent heard much from him except his tv stuff. why do repubs like him?

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 12:29 PM)

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Edwards is the one Democratic candidate who beats ALL of the Republicans -- including the guy the Republicans suddenly regard as Second Coming of Jesus, Fred Thompson. I guess that's why the media have to talk up Hillary so much. Don't want to upset the apple cart by actually reporting reality, now, do we?

JJ in NJ (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 2:41 PM)

I'm just going to go out on a limb and give my take on all of the candidates...let's see if anyone agrees. First the GOP. Guiliani-After 6 years of Bush/Cheney, he is real and honest. That's refreshing. He'll have to stay that way, because it's his best selling point. He has real potential in the general election to carry states like NY, FL, and CA. McCain-Just the opposite from Rudy. The straight talk express is off the tracks. He's lost his chance and it won't come back. Romney-Again not real or honest. Again no chance. He hasn't caught on and he's been running for months. F. Thompson-Possible dark horse if he runs. Certainly has that "Presidential" feeling. And he has the notoriety. We will have to wait to see what he stands for. Newt-Hah. Huckabee/Brownback/etc.-One of these candidates might catch with religious conservatives. Might is the key word...if it hasn't happened yet, it probably won't. Now for the Dems. Clinton-The front runner and likely winner...but can she win the general? And then there's that war vote. I think that she wins the primary. Just too much of a machine to stop, but she has a lot of negatives. If her opponents can capitalize, she is beatable. Watch the GOP do everything to help her get the nod. That's who they want to run against. Obama-As the media says, he's the rock star. I think his problem is that his biggest appeal is to those who probably won't vote in the primary. He'll have to get those un-likely voters out to have a chance. Edwards-Great message that resonates. His problem is that with his boyish looks and southern drawl, he just doesn't seem "Presidential". I don't think he can win. Richardson-The best dark horse with a great resume. I wonder if he can ever catch on with voters. Probably the best VP candidate. Gore-I don't think he will run. If he does, he takes the votes from Clinton, and that could change the whole equation. There is of course one caveate in all of this that I have wondered about. If candidates drop out or don't run, where do those votes go. Newt and Thompson for instance are polling at 10% each...thats to 20% will go to another candidate if they don't run.

Al, KS (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 5:47 PM)

Ask Ryan, Michigan blogger. He has said for a long time that the Republicans fear an Edwards candidacy.

Desmond (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 5:50 PM)

Anyone who believes the GOP "wants" to run against Hillary is living in fantasy-land. Hillary is the one Democratic candidate they truly fear. This is also the reason the media gives such glowing press reviews to Obama - they want to boost him up so he can beat Hillary. These are the facts.

Anna Ryan-Scott, New York, NY (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 6:16 PM)

What ever happened to the guy that exposed Bernie Kerik for the monster that he is? I think the country owes this guy a thank you for not letting Rudy put a guy like that in homeland security? How could Rudy have put a guy with no high school diploma in a position of authority in the jail system, and let him go into the Police Commissioner spot and then set him up for homeland security? What a Joke!!!! Something really stinks here!! What could Kerik possibly have on Rudy or even the president that nothing happens to this dirt bag? There has to be more!!! There Has to Be More!!! It's obvious that Kerik and Rudy didn't want this guy Ray talking. What Happened to him? As soon as he exposed him, no one ever heard from him again. Is he even alive? What does Kerik have on Rudy that he would continue to let him get away with these atrocities? What does this guy Ray know that would make them react in this way? Obviously it's not in Rudy's or Kerik's best interest to have him talking. Ray was Kerik's best man at his wedding, he must have known something more that they did not want exposed. What would have happened if this loser Kerik slithered his way into the White House? What irreversible damage could have been done if not for the Patriotic bravery of Ray? This guy Ray did a huge service to this country exposing this monster for what he is. It's pretty obvious that Rudy is the brains of this operation and Kerik is the brawn in this politically corrupt scandal. What has happened to America that when someone does the right thing that they should have fear for their safety, or even their family's safety? Is this the message that we should be sending that when someone does the right thing they might disappear without a trace? What happened to this guy Lawrence Ray? Did Kerik or some other corrupt official get rid of him for doing the right thing? I think this should be the new theme for all Americans. "DO THE RIGHT THING". We need to embrace all people who do the right thing!!! I thank god that this guy Ray didn't think only of himself when he exposed that dirt bag for what he really is. He knew how powerful this monster was, and he did what was right anyway. Why do you think Kerik got kicked out of Saudi Arabia? It was for framing people that his bosses told him to frame.He got a couple of doctors thrown out of there strictly by framing them. This guy has no moral compass and obviously Rudy's not far ahead of him. I hope that with Rudy making a run for the White House that people take notice of what his track record has been in his dealings with Kerik. More than likely, Kerik is not the only morally insufficient criminal that Rudy's got his hands dirty with.

Jeff (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 7:51 PM)

Jeff (Sent Tuesday, April 10, 2007 7:54 PM)

Anna, Thanks. I pray every day that neither Obama nor Edwards get the dem nomination because theyre both contenders in the general. Hillary aint. Hillary 08 is dead. GO HILLARY 08.

Callie Nimbles, San Diego, CA (Sent Wednesday, April 11, 2007 12:19 AM)

"We will...we will...rock you....."--Queen

Dorothy (Sent Wednesday, April 11, 2007 8:24 AM)

mikeeg, not sure why Repubs like Thompson so much. I know from what I've heard he's very strong in his beliefs and unwaivering in his convictions. That alone should scare politicians on both sides of the isle. Like you I will be waiting to see. Another dark horse AL KS mentioned was Richardson, now I'm a Libertarian not a DEM or Rep and my brother is a conervative. My brothers met Richardson on several occasions (he too lives in New Mexico) and while he disagrees with Richardson on a lot of issues he still really likes him as a candidate for President. I saw Richardson on the Daily show and I thought he was great. As far as the rest of the board McCain, I don't think has a shot Gulianni's got a lot of skeletons in his closet to overcome Obama doesn't have the resume nor do we know enough about him yet. Hillary's way too polorizing and she's trying to appease too many votors Romney won't get the nod and I don't see Edwards going the distance. So the two candidates I'm most interested in right now would have to be Rep Thompson and Dem Richardson. But you just never know that's what makes this stuff so intersting.

Mike PAV (Sent Wednesday, April 11, 2007 11:33 AM)

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