First thoughts

Posted: Thursday, April 26, 2007 9:22 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray in Orangeburg, SC
*** Let's Get Ready to Rumble: Tonight, all eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- assemble on the stage of the Martin Luther King Jr. auditorium at South Carolina State University to participate in the first debate of the 2008 campaign. Moderated by NBC's Brian Williams, the debate airs live on MSNBC and South Carolina NBC affiliates at 7:00 pm ET. Who will throw the first punch? How will Clinton and Obama fare? Which non-frontrunner will impress the most? Or the least? Tune in for the answers. We already know who’s winning the sign war… We saw Obama’s folks outside at 6:45 am placing Obama signs on the road outside the auditorium.

*** Gaining Ground: Just in time for the debate, a new NBC/WSJ poll shows that Obama has cut into Clinton's lead -- from 12 points in March (40%-28%) to 5 points now (36%-31%). Edwards is in third at 20% (up 5 points since March), while no other Democrat gets more than 3%. Democrats also appear to be in good shape for the general election. In head-to-head match ups, Clinton beats Fred Thompson (46%-40%), while Obama tops McCain (45%-39%). What's more, a generic Democratic candidate bests the generic GOP one, 49%-31%. And more than three-quarters of Democrats say they are satisfied with their presidential candidates, while just more than half of Republicans say this about their field.

*** The More You Know...: Going inside the numbers of our poll, there's even more bad news for Clinton and McCain. Among those who are "very closely" watching the presidential campaign (about a quarter of each primary sample), Obama actually leads Clinton, 38%-31%, with Edwards at 20%. Among those "very closely" following the GOP primary (again, a quarter of the sample), Giuliani's lead shrinks to almost nothing, but the second place candidate is Thompson. In fact, among these voters, Giuliani nabs 30%, Thompson gets 28%, Romney gets 20% and -- here's the shocker -- McCain is in single digits at 9%. Does this mean that the more voters learn about the candidates, the more Clinton and McCain see their support erode? Are all their poll numbers artificially high because of name I.D. from campaigns past?

*** Harry Reid's America? Last night, the House narrowly passed the Iraq supplemental that would begin to bring home US troops in Iraq beginning in October; it goes to the Senate today. And in the NBC/WSJ poll, a majority agrees with the Democrats -- 56% say they agree with the Democrats in Congress who want to set a deadline for troop withdrawal from Iraq, compared with just 37% who agree with Bush that there shouldn't be a deadline. In addition, 67% are less confident the war will come to a successful conclusion, 57% believe stabilizing Iraq isn't even possible, and only 12% believe the situation there has gotten better in the past three months. But are Democrats going far enough? Just 31% say they are concerned that Congress will go too far on Iraq -- versus 61% who are more worried that Bush will not make enough changes. And a paltry 20% think the new Congress has brought the right kind of change.

*** Like Father, Like Son? Perhaps the most striking finding in the NBC/WSJ poll is that only 22% believe the country is on the right track. It's the lowest number on that poll since October 1992 when -- you guessed it -- Bush's father was running for re-election (and later lost). Elsewhere in the poll, Bush's job approval remains at 35% for the third consecutive poll, just 27% approve of his handling of Iraq, and only 31% approve of Congress' job.

*** Back to the Center? McCain begins the second leg of his announcement tour in South Carolina, joining the Democrats in the state. As we mentioned yesterday, the NBC/WSJ poll has McCain on top (although within the margin of error) when GOP voters are asked which candidate would follow Bush’s policies closely. So maybe it isn’t surprising that he used his announcement speech yesterday to criticize the Bush Administration -- implicitly -- on Iraq, Katrina, and Walter Reed.

*** On the Trail: Elsewhere, Gilmore announces he's running for president via a live webcast from the Iowa Republican Party's headquarters, and Romney is in New Hampshire for some smaller-scaled meetings with local residents.

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Comments

Sure would like to know how the public likes the media...who really "cant shoot straight" and should be held for the Iraq war and a misguided president and congress..

george crupper (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 9:35 AM)

To Mark Murray and Chuck Todd: Why do you do these "First Thoughts" blurbs? They don't lend themselves well to a blog participant format. You're covering too many different subjects in one writing. Such a grand overview format may work well for a newspaper, but for people to post a comment in blog format, it doesn't work because there is no one issue to grab. Anymore, I just scroll write past the "First Thoughts" writing (don't even read it) and head down to the more focused on one issue writings that are below.

Dave M., Miamisburg, OH (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:09 AM)

a song for President Bush-"Life is a reality, you can't always run away"-Georgy Girl-The Seekers

Still Crazy After All These Years (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:42 AM)

Dave, We appreciate the feedback. The First Thoughts are the top part of our internal political planning memo we produce for NBC News. The entire memo -- First Read -- is the same stuff posted here around 9am, but in one document. Some may agree with you on whether this section is conducive to blog comments. At the same time, others might like to see the same format and sections that NBC correspondents and producers receive every morning.

Mark Murray (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:52 AM)

The problem with most of these candidates is that unlike Republicans who strive to pander to their conservative base, these people simply don't appeal to their Liberal Democratic base. There are a great many in the base who are looking for a Liberal alternative who is willing to support their point of view, as was the case when massive numbers of Liberal voters deserted the Democrats in the elections of 2000 & 2004, when they voted for Nader or simply stayed home. If Democratic candidates again want the support of their base, (rather than depending on a small pool of finicky and vacillating middle ground Independents) they will have to do more to address their concerns. Too many Democrats view those in the Party as little more than 'Republican light.'

Steven in Wisconsin (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:54 AM)

I'm getting concerned about Sen. McBombIran's slide in the polls. If I were advising him on how to boost his numbers, I would go for a name change. How about Sen. McCooCoo? That has a nice, sharp ring to it. He could promise to be an even funnier buffoon than George W, but he would have to break it because that's not possible. And to put the age question to rest, I would go for an $800 haircut, botox, and fourteen hours a day in a tanning booth for the rest of his life to lessen the chances of being mistaken for Alito, whose face is a breathtaking study in post modern maggot sculpture. Just a few little odds and ends like that, and maybe a twenty-five million dollar extreme makeover, could go a long way. Well, maybe a huge American Flag stickpin on his lapel, and a bronze statue of Jesus the size of a Chihuahua worn as a neck pendant to remind the folks he's a man of Jesus like George W.

JIrby, Colorado (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 11:00 AM)

***TONIGHTS DEMOCRATIC DEBATE...LOOK FOR "SPECIFIC" PLANS IN KEY AREAS...1.THE IRAQ WAR 2.ENERGY INDEPENDENCE 3.HEALTH CARE 4.TERRIOSM CONTROL AND #5.EDUCATION REFORM. WHICH CANDIDATE GIVES YOU "SPECIFIC PLANS" AS TO WHAT THEY WILL DO AND HOW THEY WILL FUND SUCH PLANS. ALSO LOOK FOR "EXPERIENCE" IN THE PERSON SO AS TO BE ABLE TO IMPLEMENT SUCH PLANS.IN OTHER WORDS WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR THE BEEF!

PATRIOT (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 11:09 AM)

"Liberals" are a wide- reaching group that come together on some issues but not others. I, personally, hold some views of the extinct wing of the republican party, especially when it takes a living-brain approach to the environment instead of the vulgar, foamy right's view, as illustrated by the vulgar, foamy Ann Coulter: "The earth is our bitch and we should rape it." That pretty much makes me sick, and if there were a tree handy, I'd hug it. On the other hand, they're getting my weapon the same time they get Charlton Heston's. If Chicken Dick is allowed to own firearms, I want one, too. I made fun of an anti-abortion post one day, but I realized I didn't read it correctly, and it was really pretty disturbing. So it's a lot harder finding one person who covers enough bases to pull in a winning majority (or a losing majority, like 2000).

Lee in MV (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 11:52 AM)

Mark and Chuck - I like the First Thoughts section. It reminds me of the old First Read page. Keep up the great work - moderating all of us must keep your days interesting!

Carrie, Elkridge, MD (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 12:11 PM)

"Is this real life..is this just fantasy? Caught up in a landslide...of escape from reality...."--Queen, "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Dorothy (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 12:15 PM)

JIrby: McCoulter sounds good. It conveys his basic approach. Patriot: I want to hear about anti trust (and monopoly busting), Trade policy, keeping middle class jobs, giving unions a level playing field to organize and REAL TAX reform. We have a HUGE DEFICIT and low taxes for the rich and corportations. Something's gotta give !!

Sierra, San Francisco (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 12:30 PM)

Well as a self described liberal who is becoming more progressive every day, for the past six years under this Administration, I welcome the views of the Independents, who now comprise about 30% of the people who vote. I also welcome the views of the former moderate Republicans, who left their religion at home and sought compromise. I perceive none of the aforementioned as a threat to my liberalism. I see them as an advancement of my education of the American people.I do not want my views to be called unpatriotic by my government, which is a phrase I hear often repeated by the Republican party

Desmond (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 12:35 PM)

"What's more, a generic Democratic candidate bests the generic GOP one, 49%-31%." Maybe the Dems should run a "mystery" candidate, one with a paper bag over his/her head. Go, generic Dems, GO!

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 12:38 PM)

They call us that oppose this war and supporting the present Emergency spending bill cowards, defeatest, and anti-American. The Democrats with the exception of 13 cowards voted to send this bill to the Senate and then to this King George ( this king George should remember what King William did to King George in Northern Ireland) that says it doesn't taste good. Everyone should have watched Bill Moyers program last night as it specifically named Judy Miller and Willian Satfire articles that promoted this illegal invasion of Iraq. It the same old story with the war supporters "FEAR & INTIMIDATION". This worked in '02 and again in '04, but in '06 it was a different story as the public got fed up with this association of Sept 11, 2001 and the reason is why our All Volunteer military and supplement with our "Citizen Soldiers" to fight a civil war. These men & women signed up to protect "America" from natural disasters and invasion of foreign forces on our soil. Sept. 11, 2001 was the signal to invade Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, and not Afghanistan and Iraq. This illegal invasion has produce unintended consequences for both the USA and Israel. First it allowed the Islamic and Muslim Nations to control the Iraqi government. It has force the USA to expend great amounts of money and human lifes in a "Civil War". The only thing this misguided war has produced is a Iranian government in Iraq that now has Saudi Arabia and the Arab nation as their next door neighbors, and 1,000 miles closer to Israel. This was a land grab by our military since they lost their place in the sand by Saudi Arabia asking the US military to take our military out of their "Holy Land". Sen. Erenest Hollis of SC. said it best when retiring from the senate in '04. "We are in a Holy War with Christians and Jews against the Islamic and Musluim world and it will be a long and bloody struggle with many losing their lives"

Bob. Lipsett Sr. North Attleboro, MA. 02760-4388 (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:19 PM)

Steven I have to wonder if the "democratic base" would include very many people who would vote for nader, the liberal democrates are not the base.

MK,MO (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:19 PM)

In one of the many questions posed in this article, we're asked if Clinton and McCain have artificially high poll numbers because of name recognition. Answer - of course they do. Its April 07, well over seven months before even the first Iowa caucus vote. The only people following this crap are us news junkies. These numbers are completely irrelevant. The only numbers now that do matter have dollar signs in front of them, because they indicate where party leaders are headed (big donors follow big fundraisers, who follow the more influencial party backdoor operators). More often than not, these backdoor operators collectively pick nominees. If so, a surprising number are going with Obama... enough to say Hillary is in real trouble. And don't count out Romney. I remember reading several months ago that many of the Bushies were headed that way.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:28 PM)

I hope the Democratic candidates will realize that they should show which is the best at beating the Republican candidate -- that is who I will vote for. I won't be voting for any candidate who spends all of his/her time tearing down fellow Democrats. This is too important for the future of the country. I think all are qualified and any would make a wonderful president, the only question is who can win in the general election. [ Sorry that this is a copy of a post I made yesterday but I felt it got little notice with the delayed postings ]

Russell in Maryland (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:29 PM)

Lee, speaking of "liberals" (winger code for traitor), why is it that this board seems to attract the entire cohort of the 22% who think things are dandy and the emperor is actually wearing clothes? I guess that makes the other 78% "liberal" (read: "traitor") I posted somewhere else that Phil Donahue claims MSNBC producers insisted that he have two wingers on his (canceled) show for every "liberal" he interviewed. So much for "liberal media."

Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:33 PM)

Hi Amy B, there probably are bags let over from Abu Graib prison.

Akeman (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 1:50 PM)

Mark - Because GWB is such an abomination. Referring to a post of yours - I think they ARE playing their trump card - 300 families owning 60% of the world's wealth really can't be screwed with very much. I think we're playing for global royalty. If you take any sort of a close look into anything this "administration" has done, it soon becomes clear that things ain't right. Story don't wash. The boy ain't right. He had 6 years and a blank check to do what ever he wanted with this country, and he bogged us down in a quagmire civil war half way around the world - maybe in part as a business arrangement with the Suadis whose kingdom is a little shaky. His old man was in business with Manual Noriaga, and his grandfather was a Nazi collaborator. While his war reaps record profits for the oil companies, the US was giving them $15 billion a year in tax credits - that's having a friend in government. I saw that Donahue stuff on Moyers show last night - it was almost too much to take. The Iraq war has been a put up job from day one. As far as the demographics go - it's just what the poles say they should be: about 70 - 30, nad let's be honest - any neocon posting here better be able to better than parrot all the foamer's talking points, like taking "cut and run" from a draft dodging coward like Cheney, who then must be a "never got near the fight," or how it's disrespectful to our troops to bring them home, because each and every one of them wants to die in Baghdad alley. And who wouldn't? (Except the craven cowards who send them there?) I hope this answers your question ;)

lee in MV (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 2:18 PM)

Intriguing poll numbers cited in Mark Murray's post here. Something is happening. The 22% who think the nation is on the right track take as an article of faith that Bush stands heroically between chaos and "freedom." These are the hard-core "hero" fetishists and scared rabbits who would support Bush & Co. if the administration poisoned the water supply to rid the world of the liberal menace. Our media have been a lot slower to catch on. Point in fact: at the outset of the "surge," David Broder, the self-anointed "Dean" of Washington pundits, predicted a surge in popularity, a "comeback," for the administration as the military surge unfolded. How about a retraction, Dean? These people never apologize for their windbaggery, they just come on "Meet the Press" week after week and chat up Tim Russert, after which they all retire together to the bar. For all the the geniuses who have enabled this disaster here's some interesting news, and fit to print too: the new Harris Poll shows a 28% approval rating for bubble-boy. Surge on.

Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 2:23 PM)

Mark Murray, as a suggestion, we had a vote yesterday and today on votes on the Iraq bill in Congress. Could we have a specific article on the actual vote and who split from their party and who did not vote?

Desmond (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 2:47 PM)

AAAh ... Andrea Mitchell is upto her old tricks again. She was on Tv saying that Nancy pelosi's approval is just slightly above what Denny Hasterts was before the 06 elections. According to CNN polls Hasterts was 22%, according to the most recent CNN poll Pelosi's is 45 % (Yes, according to this paragon of journalistic integrity Ms Mitchell, 45 is just slightly above 22 - and we wonder why our kids dont do well in Math !!!), according to the latest ABC news poll its 52 % . Wasnt Ms Mitchell caught in a similar LIE about poll numbers referring to Libby;s pardon ; and she had to apologize on First Read - that apology is still u p on these pages !!

u2 (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 2:50 PM)

Patriot: You forgot to add "illegal immigration" to your list of solutions you expect to hear from a candidate. While citizens of the US are loudly fighting each other over how to resolve the Iraqi conflict, the illegal immigrants are quietly moving in, and unlike legal immigrants who come to the US because they appreciate its freedoms, the illegals have a different agenda. RE the presidential candidates, perhaps Jay Leno got it right: Puy them on e-bay and winner goes to the highest bidder.

Frances Larsen, Newcastle, WA (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 3:20 PM)

u2--What does Andrea Mitchell have to say about Imus? You know she was one of the "old buddies" on his show...Did I mention I miss Imus? Oh, and is Alec Baldwin going to be fired from 30 Rock for his verbal threatening of his 11 year old daughter? Is the speech issue at NBC/MSNBC over yet, and can Imus please come out of his room now?

Ginger in ME (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 3:27 PM)

Some guys are so lucky. They have it all. All the answers, all the time. They can see things much clearer than the general populace. They possess an intellect and wisdom that is just short of divine. Their knowledge and understanding of every event far surpasses that of mere mortals such as myself. Why, they can tell everything about a guy like me by simply interpreting a few post,twisted and molded to make them say what these genuine sages want them to say, regardless of the actual messsage. Actual events become fabulous fables. Real world experience becomes tall tales. After all, nothing anyone does can approach the real world accomplishments and achievments of these intellectual giants. We should be honored to be allowed to orbit the same sun, even on the very planet on which they reside. How humbling. We cannot not even hope to aspire to what they so effortlessly attain. I am breathless with awe. They ever so eagerly attempt to enlighten us, but since we cannot fathom such deep and meaningful insight as that they possess, they are forced to remind us of our short-comings. To help us realize how small and insignificant we are. Sometimes that requires a verbal dressing-down. To point out our ineffectivenss and the hopeless folly of we think to be ideas and beliefs. We will never reach the pinnacle of superiority they have scaled quite easily. But, as long as they are there. Guiding the world daily from the comfort of their living rooms, keyboards cocked and loaded. Verbal assaults ready to launch at the mere hint of a feeble attempt at a legitimate question or personal view that would dare oppose what they know to be fact. We must humbly accept their dirision. It is our just desserts. Thank you guys, from the bottom of my heart I appreciate everyday you attempts to enlighten me, to peel the scales from eyes, and to clear my bong-clouded mind. Maybe someday, just maybe, a little of your light will shine through on me, and I will be able to walk with confidence in your glorious world.

Darren Pope, MB, SC (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 3:53 PM)

Amy, "The Unknown Democrat." LOL

Jane, Southern Mississippi (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 4:12 PM)

I see that John McCain and Lindsay Graham "missed the vote" today on the Iraq bill. Was that intentional on McCain's part?? He's been spending all his time campaigning on a pro-war platform, but he's too busy to vote on the bill?? Isn't that his job? Not a good move, in my opinion.

Jael, Downstate IL (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 4:53 PM)

Jael, why any member of Congress would waste thei time casting a vote on this bill is beyond me. It is a poorly- concealed political stunt and nothing more. Everyone knows the eventual outcome, and anyone of us can easily predict the rhetoric that will come from both sides as it heads towords certain veto. Their isn't any drama, uncertainty, or even gamesmanship to keep anyone's attention. Move along everyone. There's nothing to see here.

Beachdog, Coasting (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 5:18 PM)

MK - I believe you are a bit confused as to what comprises the base of a political party as well as to what happened to Gore when Liberals defected to vote for Nader in 2000. Also, if you don't consider Liberals to be the base of the Democratic Party then who would you consider them to be? Conservatives?

Steven in Wisconsin (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 5:28 PM)

Giuliani holds solid leads in key swing states over Hillary and Obama, but McCain beats Rudy by 9 points in South Carolina. Nice rundown on all the polls Chuck at http://www.solidpolitics.com

William, Las Vegas, NV (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 5:41 PM)

Beachdog, which part of the bill makes it not worth voting on -- funding the troops or removing them out of harms way?

Russell in Maryland (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 5:44 PM)

" Sure would like to know how the public likes the media...who really "cant shoot straight" and should be held for the Iraq war and a misguided president and congress." -george crupper . . . April 23, 2007 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9775496 Journalist Bill Moyers returns to PBS April 25 with Bill Moyers Journal; the first episode "Buying the War," a 90-minute examination of the role of the press in the run-up to the Iraq War.

Larry, Kansas (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 5:57 PM)

Both are important, when done for the right reasons. As I said, this bill was designed to put the president on the spot, and gain political advantage for the democrats. You do realize that, don't you. No matter where you stand on the war issue, and you have every right to oppose it and say so, in the end everyone knows the bill will be vetoed, sent back to the hill, the withdrawal date will be romved, it will pass quickly and the president will sign it. The troops need to be funded, Bush will never agree to a timetable. I wish them Godspeed and hope they will return home soon. Realistically, that won't be soon enough. I wish they had been taken out of harm's way long ago, but this will do nothing to make that happen. Unless Bush spontaneously decides to hold another "Mission Accomplished" ceremony on the deck of an aircraft carrier our troops will remain right where they are until sometime after he leaves office. All I'm saying is it's time, past time, for something with real meaning to done one way or another to bring this war to a conclusion. If we're not in it to win it, and from what I see there's too much political consideration on both sides for anything remotely resembling a victory to happen any time soon, then why keep them there? On, the other hand, how can we turn and run from Al-Qaeda when they are right in front of us? Where will we face them? When will we have the stomach for the long, protracted conflict that is an inevitability if we are to defeat them?

Beachdog, Coasting (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 6:26 PM)

Have we captured bin Laden?Did we defeat al-Queda in Afhganistan?

Desmond (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 7:20 PM)

I register as a Democrat. I have a base? Guess my Daddy forgot to tell me what that was. Do we , I , have money? Do we have a definitive quote to describe "our base".Mama, in the current times, I would vote for anyone that does not call me a traitor due to my politics or religion.

Desmond (Sent Thursday, April 26, 2007 8:05 PM)

Beachdog Coasting, for 12 years out of 14 the Republicans (yes men) have controled the House and Senate. For 2 years of this time frame the "Obsturctionist" so they called him, slowed down this little engine pushing this train toward the impending disaster.(train wreck) Now is order to getting this country (train) back on the right track the Citizens of America are saying, we know things will not change over night or 4 months, but to put a large "Iceberg" in a small glass you must chip away at the "Iceberg that nearly sunk our country" and Beachdog that is what the Democrats with the exception of 13 Democrats who voted "NO" on Thursday for this slush fund for the Pentagon passed with time lines for getting out of this quick sand.. Bring our troops home "NOW". 3,335 dead for a insane land grab should vbe the reason to end this nonsence.

Bob. Lipsett Sr. North Attleboro, MA. 02760-4388 (Sent Friday, April 27, 2007 10:59 AM)

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