May 2007 - Posts
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The worldviews of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are clearly very different. Romney harks back to some of the policies of Ronald Reagan, particularly regarding increased defense spending. Obama, meanwhile stresses diplomacy and exudes confidence in his own potential powers of persuasion with world leaders. Though it remains to be seen how Obama would react if his diplomacy is rebuffed and he doesn’t quite get what he wants from world leaders.
One clear difference between Obama’s and Romney’s essays: the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Obama mentions it quite high up and vows a “patient” and “personal commitment” to the process should he be elected president. Romney, however, never specifically mentions it. Instead Romney writes: “Yet the jihad is much broader than any one nation, or even several nations. It is broader than the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, or that between the Israelis and the Palestinians.”
Romney maintains the Republican line with regard to some facets of his energy independence policy, specifically on his support for drilling in ANWR, and with his criticism of the United Nations. But he is not an isolationist and not necessarily a unilateralist.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Dodd's campaign just announced that it will be launching its third TV ad, which will run in Iowa and New Hampshire -- states that this weekend will be hosting an '08 awards dinner and a presidential debate, respectively. The subject of the ad: global warming.
Says an announcer, "All the Earth's creatures are threatened by global warming. One candidate for president is doing something to stop it: Chris Dodd. He's the only one with an energy plan that has a courageous corporate carbon tax to transform American industry. It's the plan Al Gore and Bill Bradley call 'creative,' 'honest and bold.'"
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
As promised. here are some key excerpts in Obama's just-published article in Foreign Affairs.
On Iraq:
“We must first bring the Iraq war to a responsible end and refocus our attention on the broader Middle East... The best chance we have to leave Iraq a better place is to pressure these warring parties to find a lasting political solution. And the only effective way to apply this pressure is to begin a phased withdrawal of U.S. forces, with the goal of removing all combat brigades from Iraq by March 31, 2008... This redeployment could be temporarily suspended if the Iraqi government meets the security, political, and economic benchmarks to which it has committed.”
“[W]e must launch a comprehensive regional and international diplomatic initiative to help broker an end to the civil war in Iraq... To gain credibility in this effort, we must make clear that we seek no permanent bases in Iraq. We should leave behind only a minimal over-the-horizon military force in the region."
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
“Changing the dynamic in Iraq will allow us to focus our attention and influence on resolving the festering conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians... Our starting point must always be a clear and strong commitment to the security of Israel... [W]e must strive to secure a lasting settlement of the conflict... Sustained American leadership for peace and security will require patient effort and the personal commitment of the president of the United States.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Mark Murray
During a press conference in Los Angeles yesterday, Clinton responded to the recent news alleging that she most likely did not read the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq before voting to authorize the war. Said Clinton: “We were thoroughly briefed by the people who wrote that estimate, by the people who supervised its writing, on numerous occasions. And I believe that I received all of the information that was necessary for me to reach a judgment.”
She went on to repeat her now-familiar appeal to looking to the present and stressing the importance of convincing President Bush and congressional Republicans to begin extricating US troops from Iraq.
But Clinton's response raises more questions: If the vote was the "hardest decision" she has ever made, was a briefing by the people who wrote the estimate sufficient to reach that decision? And if then-Sen. Bob Graham (D) said he decided to vote against the war authorization because he had read the entire NIE report, as Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. write in the New York Times magazine, then did she really have all the information she needed to reach a judgment?
From NBC's Mark MurrayWe missed this earlier, but the dean of Iowa political journalists -- the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen -- has a
column today noting
Biden's "profile in courage" for being the sole Senate Democratic presidential hopeful to vote FOR the Iraq supplemental. "That's not a very popular thing to do in a party where anti-war passions run high. Biden was already struggling to break into the top tier of candidates, and his vote could cost him dearly with some on caucus night... Biden said during a meeting with Des Moines Register reporters and editors on Tuesday that he voted for the funding bill largely because it contained funding for new armored vehicles that will better resist roadside bombs... 'I find it absolutely unconscionable that I would delay, to make a point, a week to two to a month, the construction of these vehicles,' he said."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama have written pieces in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, outlining their visions on foreign policy. Here are some excerpts from Romney's essay; we'll post Obama's later today.
Romney on Iraq:
“All Americans want U.S. troops to come home as soon as possible. But walking away now or dividing Iraq up into parts and walking away later would present grave risks to the United States and the world…. Many still fail to comprehend the extent of the threat posed by radical Islam….”
On defense spending:
“[O]ur investment in the military as a percentage of GDP remain lower than at any time in major conflict since World War II... [W]e need to increase our investment in national defense. This means adding at least 100,000 troops and making a long-overdue investment in equipment, armament, weapons systems, and strategic defense….[W]e are going to need at least an additional $30-$40 billion annually over the next several years... The next president should commit to spending a minimum of four percent of GDP on national defense.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark MurrayOn Monday, the day before the next GOP presidential debate,
McCain will deliver an address on immigration in Coral Gables, FL, his campaign just announced. Immigration, of course, has become a prickly issue for the senator as many GOP conservatives -- and some of his GOP rivals -- have lashed out against the Senate compromise that McCain supports.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Nice Timing: Whether or not you think Fred Thompson has been wise to wait this long to dive into the ’08 pool, you have to admit his folks picked a good time to leak the news about his upcoming “testing the waters” committee. With Congress on its Memorial Day recess, Thompson dominates today’s newspaper headlines and the TV morning shows. Want evidence? Just check out today’s “OH-EIGHT (R)” section.
*** L.A.’s Real Star: Speaking of what’s in the news, our California spies tell us that Clinton's endorsement event yesterday with Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was overshadowed in the local media (i.e. TV) by Kobe Bryant -- whose "I want to be traded, no, wait, I don't want to be traded" led the local news. Check out today's Los Angeles Times; Kobe trumps Clinton there, too.
*** The Beginning Of A Beautiful Rivalry: Campaigning in California yesterday, Giuliani attacked Clinton on taxes. And today in New York, per the Daily News, he picks up an endorsement from Bill Clinton’s former FBI director Louis Freeh, who long ago dropped all pretences of being a Clinton loyalist. Also, look for Rudy to play up his electability now that Thompson is in the race, particularly when Rudy's campaigning (and raising money) in the so-called "blue" states. Primary? What primary?
*** An Uptick For Gore? A new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters is out, and it has Giuliani leading both Clinton and Obama in general election match-ups. The only Democrat Giuliani trails? Al Gore. This is the first time we've seen evidence anywhere that Gore runs better than either Clinton or Obama against the leading Republican. Is this the start of a trend? A result of Gore’s book tour? We'll let you know.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden, still in Iowa, attends a breakfast with Benton County Democrats; Clinton speaks to Silicon Valley leaders in California; Edwards holds a press conference to unveil his plan to fight rising gas prices and then attends a low-dollar fundraiser in San Jose, CA; McCain raises money in Mississippi; Obama, fresh off announcing his health-care plan, holds a health-care rally in Reno, NV; and Romney campaigns throughout Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 18 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 25 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 71 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 95 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 141 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 158 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 169 days
Countdown to Iowa: 227 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 249 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 522 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 599 days
BROWNBACK: The Kansas senator uses the New York Times op-ed page to explain why he was one of three candidates to raise his hand during the first GOP debate to announce that he does not believe in evolution. "The premise behind the question seems to be that if one does not unhesitatingly assert belief in evolution, then one must necessarily believe that God created the world and everything in it in six 24-hour days. But limiting this question to a stark choice between evolution and creationism does a disservice to the complexity of the interaction between science, faith and reason… If belief in evolution means simply assenting to microevolution, small changes over time within a species, I am happy to say, as I have in the past, that I believe it to be true. If, on the other hand, it means assenting to an exclusively materialistic, deterministic vision of the world that holds no place for a guiding intelligence, then I reject it.”
GIULIANI: The New York Sun: “In a potential preview of next fall's presidential contest, Mr. Giuliani, who is seen as the front-runner for the Republican nomination, directly attacked the leading Democratic candidate, Mrs. Clinton, over a speech she gave Tuesday in New Hampshire bemoaning the return of ‘robber barons’ and promising to pursue ‘shared prosperity’ by increasing taxes on Americans making more than $200,000 a year. ‘This would be an astounding, staggering tax increase,’ Mr. Giuliani told reporters yesterday after a visit to a restaurant on the edge of California's Silicon Valley.”
The New York Daily News notes that Giuliani will today pick up an endorsement from former Bill Clinton FBI director Louis Freeh, who has gone from a one-time Clinton advocate to a sharp critic.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Campaign manager Luis Navarro issued this statement regarding the pressure MoveOn is putting on the campaign to drop out of the FOX/Congressional Black Caucus debate. “We applaud Moveon.org’s efforts to change the President’s policies in Iraq. It is unfortunate that Moveon.org is more concerned that candidates not attend a debate sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, than they are about the fact that leading candidates are ducking this debate as well as the Iraq-only debate sponsored by Johns Hopkins and the Financial Times.”
Speaking of, the AP reports that Dodd and Richardson will skip the Fox Democratic debate. Clinton, Obama and Edwards have already said they will bypass the event.
CLINTON: The Los Angeles Times covered the event, but check out what story got more play on the front page -- Kobe or Clinton? It was Kobe.
In Nevada yesterday, Clinton was asked some interesting questions about her own wealth. “‘I know a lot of rich people. My husband and I never had any money ... now all (of a) ... sudden we're rich,' Clinton said. 'I have nothing against rich people. ... but what made America great is the American middle class.’”
CONTINUED >>
The new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania has Giuliani leading both Clinton and Obama in general election match-ups. Giuliani also has a double-digit lead in the GOP primary. And Clinton has a similar lead in the Dem primary, with Gore second, over Obama.
The Boston Globe says that Democrats are drawing bigger crowds in New Hampshire than Republicans, leading some GOP officials to take it as a sign of “a lack of enthusiasm” with the GOP field.
A spokesman for South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) called First Read yesterday to say that the governor is leaning against a bill the Legislature is considering that would have the state help finance South Carolina’s GOP and Democratic primaries. Per the spokesman, Sanford has problems with using public funds to assist the state political parties, which run the South Carolina primaries.
Ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former RNC chief Ken Mehlman pen a Wall Street Journal op-ed in support of the Senate immigration bill. “Both of us have spent much of our professional lives working to help build the Republican Party. We believe this legislation will be good for the GOP. Hispanic Americans are natural Republicans. Many tend to be pro-life, pro-military and pro-small business… The immigration reform before Congress is far from perfect; it's a compromise after all. But, on balance, we are convinced that this legislation is the right choice. It represents progress in making America safer and stronger; progress in making our economy more competitive and flexible; progress in reinforcing the rule of law and progress in the important work of national unity. Doing nothing is not an option.”
There is now a second investigation taking place regarding the Justice Department’s hiring practices, the
Boston Globe says. This probe focuses on whether the Bush Administration "illegally used a political litmus test when vetting candidates for non-partisan positions."
From NBC's Carrie DannIn the wake of Obama's big policy pitch yesterday, the worlds of print and pixel are crowded with side-by-side comparisons of the Democratic front-runners' plans for universal health care reform. It's certainly worthwhile to parse the details of the three plans -- their costs, their options, and their requirements. But there's something to be said for zooming out from the play-by-play to look at how each of the heavy hitters choose to present their big policy plans. And there's even a lot to learn by just hitting the "mute" button (and not for the reasons that their GOP rivals might enthusiastically suggest).
Since hitting the trail in earnest, each of the top three Democratic candidates have touted rollouts on health care, the economy, and a handful of other sweeping topics. Each has addressed a tough topic on friendly turf. (
Obama talked foreign policy in hometown Chicago;
Clinton talked about health-care costs a stone's throw away from the Capitol Dome; and Southerner
Edwards unveiled his big health-care plan in Charleston, SC.) Other than the locale, a catchy phrase -- preferably two words -- is a key component to the "major policy address." Compare Obama's Rockwellian "American Moment" to Clinton's risky "Shared Prosperity," which set GOP blogs ablaze yesterday with allusions to Red China.
Unsurprisingly, the meticulous Clinton outlines her plans like an infomercial ad wizard; her economic plan was nine steps, and her talk about health care was seven. And it's worth noting that Clinton and Obama tend to stay entrenched behind podiums for the heavy lifting, while Edwards broke the mold by introducing his health-care plan in a town-hall format and by fielding questions after his health-care rollout.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
In the upcoming New York Times magazine, the authors of the new biography of Hillary Clinton -- former and current New York Times investigative reporters Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. -- have written an article, adapted from their book, on Hillary's 2002 war authorization vote. The piece is already out, and so you don't have to read the entire 18-page article, here's what caught our eyes or what we think is new:
-- "Of course, Clinton was tough. And she was experienced. But according to aides and strategists, her insecurity about her public image and her nascent national-security credentials made it difficult, if not impossible, for her to vote no” on the Iraq war authorization.
-- "Bill Clinton served as her main counsel on the Iraq war vote, longtime associates of theirs told us.”
-- As the Washington Post noted earlier from the Gerth-Van Natta book, Clinton might not have read the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate before she cast her vote. "The question of whether Clinton took the time to read the N.I.E. report is critically important. Indeed, one of Clinton’s Democratic colleagues, Bob Graham, the Florida senator who was then the chairman of the intelligence committee, said he voted against the resolution on the war, in part, because he had read the complete N.I.E. report. Graham said he found that it did not persuade him that Iraq possessed W.M.D. As a result, he listened to Bush’s claims more skeptically. ‘I was able to apply caveat emptor,’ Graham, who has since left the Senate, observed in 2005. He added regretfully, ‘Most of my colleagues could not.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we wrote earlier today, McCain could be the biggest loser with Fred Thompson establishing a "testing the waters" committee, because he will begin gobbling up GOP money that McCain needs for a strong 2nd quarter fundraising performance. But NBC/WSJ pollster Neil Newhouse (R) tells First Read that Thompson pulls more from Giuliani -- at least in the polls.
In the April NBC/WSJ poll, Giuliani led McCain among GOP voters, 39%-24%, with Romney at 12%. But with Thompson on the ballot, Giuliani was at 33%, McCain at 22%, Thompson at 17%, and Romney at 12%.
Moreover, among GOP voters who said they were "dissatisfied" with the GOP field were initially voting for Giuliani by 29%-25%-11% over McCain and Romney. But on the second ballot, those who said they were "dissatisfied" with the field had Thompson out in front 29%-22%-20%-10% over Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.
Says Newhouse: "So, it appears Fred pulls more from Rudy ... whose support has been buttressed by GOP voters who are not all that satisfied with the GOP field."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Tied to the endorsement Clinton received today from Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, campaign strategist Mark Penn and pollster Sergio Bendixen have released a memo -- in both English and Spanish -- touting her strength among Hispanic voters in key February 5 states, and listing key Hispanic aides and endorsements she has received.
But we have a couple of questions: What happens to this support for Clinton if Richardson catches fire?
And is this a subtle way of the campaign acknowledging that they will end up on the short end of the black vote stick -- and need another constituency to put together a winning post-South Carolina coalition?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Enter Number Eleven? Fred Thompson makes it (more) official. According to a campaign source, Thompson will file his FEC papers officially on Monday June 4. In FEC parlance, Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" committee, a technical term that allows Thompson to forgo filing a detailed report on June 30 -- though once he's an official candidate, he'll have to file retroactively. The June 4 filing will be coordinated with a first-day fundraising blitz with 100-plus "First Day Founders" raising a significant one day sum in order to send a we're-in-the-first-tier message. The campaign tells us the "first day" blitz totals they report will be "cash" actually raised, not pledges. The source didn't dispute the notion that the one-day goal would be north of seven figures.
*** His Advantages: If there was ever a time for GOP candidate to come out of nowhere and compete for the nomination, it's now. According to the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, just 53% of Republicans are satisfied with their presidential choices (compared with 78% of Democrats who say they are). In addition, as Business Week reported, there is plenty of uncommitted GOP Ranger/Pioneer money out there for Thompson to gobble up (many of whom were on a conference call yesterday with Thompson). And what's not to like about a plainspoken Southerner who happens to be famous and who hasn't had ties to Washington or the Iraq war since he left Congress in 2002?
*** His Disadvantages: But how does he make up on lost time in building the same kind of infrastructure that McCain and Romney have built in the early primary states? (Frist and Allen staffer refugees can account for some of the staff deficit but not all.) On the issues, how is he any different than the front-runners? (A recent Washington Post story said his record was virtually identical to McCain's.) And is he attracting GOPers' attention because who he isn't -- rather than who he is? What, in short, makes him any different than Wes Clark was in 2003-4, sans the military medals?
*** Should McCain Worry? The timing of Thompson's entrance is not good for any of the front-runners who are all trying to make a big financial splash this final month of the 2nd quarter. However, the candidate who could be hurt the most is McCain, who has put the most pressure on himself to financially perform after a subpar 1st quarter.
*** A Different Standard? Some of Obama’s rivals regularly complain that he’s held to a different standard when it comes to his policy proposals. The subhead in today’s LA Times on Obama’s health-care plan shows their efforts might be paying off: "The Democratic hopeful's proposal lacks specifics but would cut costs while expanding coverage to everyone." But the paper’s lead shows those same rivals that maybe Obama does have a lower bar: "Obama on Tuesday offered an ambitious plan to curb healthcare costs and expand insurance coverage, in the latest example of Democratic presidential candidates honing strategies to achieve coverage for all."
*** Punch, Counterpunch: Bush yesterday took a shot at conservative critics who call the Senate immigration plan “amnesty.” But check out the cold reception it received. Conservative Paul Weyrich tells the Washington Times that “there are legitimate reasons to oppose this legislation, and I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him." More Weyrich: "He is angering people beyond belief to the point that the Republican Party is going to split in two, thanks to him. If this bill passes, the Republicans will not recover from it.”
*** On The Trail: Biden continues to campaign in Iowa; Clinton meets with culinary workers in Las Vegas and then holds a town hall there; Edwards visits with Google employees in Mountain View, CA; Giuliani meets with voters in Burlingame, CA; McCain fundraises in Arizona; and Romney spends his day in Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 26 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 72 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 96 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 142 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 159 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 170 days
Countdown to Iowa: 228 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 250 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 523 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 600 days
The New York Times interviews moderate Republican voters in the districts represented by some of the 11 GOP congressmen who met privately with Bush about the war. And those interviews “suggest that more Republican voters are opposing the war, and that independents who might have voted Republican are moving toward supporting a Democrat.”
Check out this Joe Biden comment to the Des Moines Register about the war supplemental -- it's something the eventual GOP nominee might resurrect against Obama and Clinton should one of them end up the eventual nominee. “‘As long as there are troops who are in a position where, if we don’t fund them they are going to be hurt, I’m not going to cut off funding,’ Biden said during a meeting with Des Moines Register editors and reporters. ‘That’s what the other candidates said too, but they changed their mind.’” Recall that Biden was the only 2008 Democratic presidential candidate serving in the Senate to vote for the supplemental.
A US embassy spokesman told NBC News that Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I) arrived in Baghdad Wednesday morning and has met with US Embassy officials and Iraqi officials.
The New York Times writes up Bush’s immigration speech yesterday in Georgia this way: “President Bush took on parts of his conservative base on Tuesday by accusing opponents of his proposed immigration measure of fear-mongering to defeat its passage in Congress. ‘If you want to scare the American people, what you say is the bill’s an amnesty bill,’ Mr. Bush said… ‘That’s empty political rhetoric trying to frighten our citizens.’” More: It was a rare case of the president’s taking on the coalition that helped him win and keep the Oval Office, the same conservative radio hosts, bloggers, writers and members of Congress who contributed significantly to the defeat of immigration measures last year.”
The Washington Post: "But conservatives bristled at his remarks. ‘I don't think name-calling does any good at this point,’ said David A. Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union. ‘What they've done from the very beginning is say, “This is the way we want it done, and anyone who disagrees with us is outside the mainstream.” . . . It's been badly handled. They'll be lucky, given the attitudes in the country, to come up with anything.’”
More GOP complaints, per the Washington Times: “‘That's hurtful language,’ said Sen. Jeff Sessions, Alabama Republican. ‘If the bill did what they promised it was going to do, I'd support it. I'm for comprehensive reform, but it has to serve the national interests, not political interest. I don't think it's courage to support this flawed bill. I think sometimes it takes a bit of courage to resist this kind of short-term reform, so we can create a system that can actually work,’ Mr. Sessions said. Rep. Brian P. Bilbray, California Republican and chairman of the Immigration Reform Caucus, took issue with Mr. Bush's assertion that critics are objecting to a ‘narrow slice’ of the bill. ‘Amnesty for 12-20 million illegal immigrants isn't a 'narrow slice' ... it's the whole darn pie,’ Mr. Bilbray said.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: In advance of her trip out west this week -- including a stop in Nevada) -- the Clinton campaign rolled out a series of endorsements, including ex-NV Gov. Bob Miller…
… And also Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who endorses Clinton today in LA. This nod is a big deal in this sense: He didn't go with either Richardson or Obama. Many of these endorsements are more important to Clinton because they are staying on the establishment reservation rather than flirting with one of her challengers.
The New York Times says that with the Villaraigosa endorsement, “Clinton has outflanked her Democratic presidential rivals — including Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the first Hispanic to seek the party’s nomination — in a crucial primary state with a large number of Hispanic voters and Democratic convention delegates.” More: In a telephone interview yesterday, Mr. Villaraigosa described a lengthy courtship by both Clintons, starting with a phone call from Mrs. Clinton on the January morning when she announced her presidential candidacy.”
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: The New York Times follows up on Gingrich’s critical comments to the New Yorker about the GOP and Karl Rove. He is quoted in The New Yorker as suggesting that a Republican will win the White House by running against Mr. Bush as Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidency in France by running against his fellow party member Jacques Chirac, in whose cabinet he had served.”
GIULIANI: David Boaz of the Cato Institute criticizes Giuliani in a New York Daily News op-ed, saying that he finds support for Giuliani among “libertarian-leaning Republicans” surprising. Boaz adds that, as mayor, Giuliani’s “prosecutorial personality sometimes threatened personal freedoms,” citing the Giuliani’s treatment of minorities and the shooting of Amadou Diallo.
The New York Post reports on Giuliani’s birthday fundraising yesterday. The former New York mayor turned 63 yesterday and celebrated it, in part, by hitting four fundraisers in four New York boroughs.
CONTINUED >>
Tsunami Tuesday continues to expand. Both Alaska and Georgia
have moved up their contests to February 5.
Realistically, the Democrats' only shot at winning a Senate seat in Alaska is for GOP Sen. Ted Stevens to retire. Could
this story about the FBI investigating a remodeling project on Stevens' home be the type of thing that forces Stevens to make that move? Maybe. Here's some detail on the inquiry. "The wide-ranging federal inquiry surfaced in August when agents raided six legislative offices, including those of then-Senate President Ben Stevens, one of Ted Stevens' sons. The FBI said at the time that it also had executed a search warrant in Girdwood, among other places, although the location of that search has never been officially disclosed."
From WHO-TV's Dave Price
Illinois Senator Barack Obama, a Democratic candidate for President, chose the University of Iowa Hospital in Iowa City to unveil his plan to make sure all Americans have health care. Pledging universal health care has been one of the most-spoken promises from some of the Democrats during their stops in Iowa. During his speech, Obama said, "I will sign a universal health care plan into law by the end of my first term in office." But after his speech today, Obama told me his plan really isn't "universal." He said it's "virtually universal."
His plan doesn't mandate coverage, except for children. Uninsured adults are encouraged to participate, so are small businesses. But no one is forced to participate. Obama says people will want to take part in this, though. He believes people will sign up for the plan, since coverage will be far cheaper. And businesses, he says, when it comes down to it, want to be able to offer health insurance. They just haven't been able to afford it in the past.
Obama told me rolling back President George W. Bush's tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans will provide most of the money to make his plan work. The rest of the savings will come from switching to electronic record-keeping (although, there are obvious start up costs for that), as well as reduced bills for emergency room visits, because people, in theory, would take better care of themselves since they have access to health care.
The feds would also pick up the cost of the most expensive illnesses and conditions. That will lower annual premiums overall for families, Obama said, by up to $2,500.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Ok, so I've only been able to share my inbox and scattering political thoughts on a weekly basis instead of daily. I swear, I'll do this more often. In the meantime, here are some remainders from the weekend both from the internet and my head:
-- The Future Of The GOP: The New Yorker's Goldberg, in his "letter from Washington" examines the problems facing the GOP electorally in '08 and beyond. Three distinct voices stick out in the piece. First, there's Karl Rove, who is still unfailingly optimistic about the fact that there is a still a center-right majority in the country. Two growth areas he points to demographically include what he believes is an amazing growth in home-computer-based businesses (he claims 700,000 people make their primary livings off of EBAY) and then the yearn for spirtuality. "So the power of the computer has made it possible for people to gain greater control over their lives. ... If you look at the traditional mainstream denominations, they're flat, but what's growing inside those denominations, and what's growing outside those denominations, is churches that are filling this spirtual need, that are replacing sterility with something bibrant, something that speaks to the heart of the individual."
-- Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is the second loudest voice in the piece and takes a direct shot at Rove by calling the '04 campaign "manically dumb": "All he proved was that the anti-Kerry vote was bigger than the anti-Bush vote. The Bush people deliberately could not bring themselves to wage a campaign of choice" (i.e. on ideology or ideas). He then compared Bush to Jimmy Carter on the compentency issue.
-- What If God Talked To Tom DeLay? Finally, the third intriguing voice that sticks out in the piece is Tom DeLay, who is very pessimistic about '08: "We don't have a good shot at winning 2008. I'm not saying we don't have a shot, but it's not good." But the real kicker with DeLay is this money quote: "God has spoken to me. I listen to God and what I've heard is that I'm supposed to devote myself to rebuilding the conservative base of the Republican Party."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
On what should be a happy day of fundraising in the four boroughs of New York City (all except Manhattan) for Rudy Giuliani's 63rd birthday, a few protestors ruined his first event, a review of the videotape shows. At City Island's Sea Shore Restaurant in the Bronx, a young woman named Sabrina approached the Mayor with a prepared question, reading it word for word off of a notepad. "You reported to Peter Jennings on 9/11 that the World Trade Center towers were going to collapse. No steel structure in history has ever collapsed due to fire. How come the people in the buildings weren't notified and who else knew about this? How do you sleep at night?"
Giuliani started to reply but was interrupted by Luke Rudkowski, a man recording the entire exchange on a video camera. Matthew Lepaceak, who stood on the other side of Giuliani, joined in. "But you said on ABC video with Peter Jennings in an interview that you were aware the towers were going to collapse in advance. Who told you the towers were going to collapse in advance, sir? And I also would like to know who else you told." During this time, Giuliani had an incredulous look on his face, completely caught off guard. The statement they were referring to is from a phoner Giuliani had with Jennings. "We set up headquarters at 75 Barclay Street which was right there with the police commissioner and the fire commissioner, the head of emergency management, and we were operating out of there when we were told the World Traded Center was going to collapse."
After being interrupted again, Giuliani responded with an explanation. "Our understanding was that over a long period of time, the way other buildings collapse, the towers could collapse. Meaning over a seven-, eight-, nine-, ten-hour period. No one that I knew of had any idea that they would implode. That was a complete surprise." He then walked into the diner for the breakfast fundraiser. Giuliani supporters clapped loudly to drown out the protestors' questions.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie DannUnder the newly-minted slogan "Shared Prosperity,"
Clinton outlined a nine-point economic overhaul plan this morning that was rife with barbs at the Bush Administration and big business. "Over the past six years," she chided, "it's as though we've gone back to the era of the robber barons." Clinton's plan -- delivered this morning in primary state New Hampshire -- targets ballooning CEO pay, Bush's tax cuts, excessive outsourcing, and "corporate welfare" as the culprits behind income inequality. Striking the tone of an Econ 101 professor at times, she described current trends in global business as "trickle-down economics, but without the trickle."
In her address, Clinton pointed to the individual pages of her policy playbook as solutions to America's economic problems. She proposed that drains on the high-education workforce could be eased by her plan for universal pre-K; sluggishness in social mobility for the middle class could be fought via her support for pro-union legislation; and unemployment could be stemmed by a bump in new jobs created under a Clinton energy plan. Frequently highlighting her policy's "progressiveness," Clinton was unabashed about the breadth of her proposed overhauls. "So many people I talk to want to hit the restart button on the 21st Century and redo it the right way," she said, "And I agree with them."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Over the Memorial Day weekend, the New York Times wrote about the fact that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have all decided to skip the FOX/Congressional Black Caucus presidential debate -- because, at least according to Edwards, the network isn't fair and balanced to Democrats. The article added that Biden was in, Richardson is undecided, and Dodd and Kucinich aides didn't return phone calls.
Late last night, however, Kucinich's campaign released a statement saying he would participate -- which probably isn't surprising for the non-top-tier candidate. “This is particularly troublesome because the concerns of African Americans should take precedent over what network is broadcasting the debate,” Kucinich said in the statement. "Those candidates planning to skip this debate clearly are trying to avoid a forum where there will be hard-hitting questions from people who may not agree with them. But taking questions from all sides is part of politics, and part of being President. I'm running to be President for all people in this country.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we noted that the campaign fact sheet detailing Obama's health-care plan didn't include the costs or how Obama plans to pay for them. Well, the campaign just sent us a memo from three Harvard experts who break down the plan. According to the experts, Obama's universal health insurance proposal would require between $50-$65 billion in new federal funds per year. And they say that $65 billion a year "is roughly the amount of revenue that would be raised by restoring the top two personal income tax brackets and rates on dividends and capital gains to Clinton-era levels, and retaining the estate tax with a $7 million exemption rather than repealing it."
Yet the experts also estimate that Obama's plan -- especially its call for investments in new information technology, reducing insurance industry overhead, and improve disease management -- could save the overall US economy $120-$200 billion per year.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Policy Time: The day after Memorial Day brings two big policy rollouts: Clinton on income inequality and Obama’s health-care plan. The Obama campaign tells First Read that his plan will provide universal health-care and will save the typical family up to $2,500 each year. The plan, among other things, will 1) give individuals the choice to buy affordable health coverage that is similar to the plan available to federal employees; 2) require all employers to contribute to their employee’s health coverage; and 3) create a National Health Insurance Exchange that will help individuals looking to purchase private insurance. What's missing (at least from the fact sheet the campaign gave us): its cost and how Obama plans to pay for it. Meanwhile, Clinton’s speech, her campaign says, will identify income inequality as a 2008 campaign issue and outline her approach in dealing with economic issues. Note: Now that the top three Dems have all unveiled at least a portion of their health-care plans, look for uber-analysis of the three for differences/similarities in the coming days.
*** Troop Pullout? Perhaps the biggest news over the Memorial Day weekend was that the Administration is debating a troop cut in 2008. This release is designed, in part, to keep wayward Republicans from abandoning Bush on Iraq this calendar year and possibly buying political time. If this is indeed a real proposal, then expect the debate between the Democrats and Republicans to be over the size of the cut. The likely Dem talking point: Pulling out a little is akin to being a little pregnant -- it's just not plausible and will only cut down on the number of weekly U.S. troop deaths, but it won't eliminate them. The likely GOP talking point: We can't abandon Iraq completely -- after all, we broke it, and we have to fix it.
*** Blog This: Cleaning up from last week's Iraq supplemental vote… Just how did anti-war blogosphere favorites, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Jim Webb from Virginia, and Jon Tester from Montana vote the opposite of Obama and Clinton? Why didn't Clinton or Obama use the three frosh Senate Dems as cover to vote yes? Why hasn't the anti-war left its their anger at Webb/Brown/Tester?
*** The Day The Immigration Lights Went Out In Georgia? Bush heads to Georgia to sell his prickly comprehensive immigration reform proposal. Georgia, of course, is the state where Republicans reportedly booed/hissed their own senator, Saxby Chambliss (R), for his support of the proposal. Will Bush get a warmer reception?
*** Unscathed: The Clinton camp escaped the weekend relatively unscathed considering all the negative potential that was there (the Iowa memo and the new books about the Clintons). Her first Iowa trip post-memo was not only successful, but got more local press than normal because of it. And then the book fallout seems minimal, although that could still change once the authors go public. The only negative storyline that was pursued was courtesy of today's New York Post, which claims there is a NY-DC rift in the campaign. But do consider that the key "New York" staff has moved to DC, so the story may be a little more than hype.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden continues to stump in Iowa, giving the keynote address at the National Security Network Luncheon in Des Moines; McCain hits a fundraiser in San Diego and then participates in the Wall Street Journal’s “All Things Digital” conference; and Romney spends his entire day campaigning in New Hampshire.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 20 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 27 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 73 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 97 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 160 days
Countdown to Iowa: 229 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 251 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 524 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 601 days
Here's the Saturday New York Times report on the troop-cut discussion. "Still, there is no indication that Mr. Bush is preparing to call an early end to the current troop increase, and one reason officials are talking about their long-range strategy may be to blunt pressure from members of Congress, including some Republicans who are pushing for a more rapid troop reduction."
Lots of chatter about the intelligence report that circulated around the White House BEFORE the Iraq invasion, which predicated many of the problems the Administration is experiencing right now in Iraq. Recall that on Thursday, Bush all but admitted that he was briefed about this report when he brushed off a question about the report saying he received a lot of advice but he made the call that ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein was the overriding right thing to do.
McCain has a new talking point regarding Iraq and this call for a "Plan B": “‘I believe that General (Dwight) Eisenhower didn't have a Plan B at Normandy, and I don't think that General (Ulysses S.) Grant had a plan B when he decided to take Richmond,’ said McCain, referring to turning-point battles in World War II and the Civil War. ‘I know of a number of other options - the problem is, none of them are any good.’”
CONTINUED >>
The AP previews Bush’s visit to Georgia today, where he “will visit the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Brunswick today to talk about immigration. Bush will highlight enforcement provisions in the immigration package that Congress is considering. He'll note that the plan calls for more immigration and border patrol agents and more fences along the border, as well as an employment verification system.”
The New York Times is the latest to look at the flak -- or its flack (just kidding)? -- that conservative GOP senator Jon Kyl has received over his support for the immigration package. “Angry calls poured into Senator Jon Kyl’s office this week by the thousands, expressing outrage beyond anything he said he had witnessed in his 20-year political career. The callers were inflamed by Mr. Kyl’s role in shaping the bipartisan immigration compromise announced May 17, which lawmakers continue to debate.”
Meanwhile, McCain is trying to take his immigration lemons and turn them into lemonade. He's beating back the Romney and Giuliani criticism over the legislation with calls for them to produce their own plan. “‘It’s the easiest thing in the world to say no to things,’ said McCain. ‘My job is to do the hard things.’”
BIDEN: Despite being one of the many Senate Democrats to vote for the Iraq war supplemental, he sounded just as anti-Iraq as any Democratic presidential contender while campaigning in Iowa this weekend.
And yet, Biden was also embracing the fact that he was the only major Dem contender to vote for the supplemental, particularly on this Memorial Day weekend.
Also of note, Biden unveiled a Web ad focused on his work to get more mine-resistant vehicles to the military. It's a 60-second spot, so one gets the feeling this was designed to eventually find its way on the TV airwaves.
CLINTON: The one upside to last week’s leaked she-might-skip-Iowa memo? It meant the local Iowa press corps covered her weekend trip with an increased intensity that's usually reserved for a time closer to the caucuses. Said Clinton at one stop: “‘I'm going to spend so much time in Iowa, I'm going to be able to caucus for myself,’ she said.
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: This Kansas City Star piece doesn't bill itself as a rundown of everything that's gone wrong for Sam Brownback's campaign, but it turns out to do just that.
While campaigning in Iowa over the weekend, Brownback took a veiled shot at Giuliani, saying the eventual GOP nominee needs to uphold all aspects of the GOP platform -- both on the economic and social fronts.
GIULIANI: The New York Times front-pages how Giuliani has softened his image and rhetoric on the campaign trail. “The dyspeptic, ‘not afraid to suggest his opponents have really deep-seated psychological problems’ Republican mayor of fact and legend has taken a holiday. What’s left on the presidential campaign trail is a commanding daddy of a candidate, a disciplined fellow who talks about terrorism and fiscal order and about terrorism some more.”
The New York Post sees similarities between the speed bumps in the early stages of Giuliani's presidential campaign and the mistakes he made in his first bid for office -- the unsuccessful '89 mayoral race.
CONTINUED >>
The New Hampshire GOP is in some financial dire straits (thanks mostly to that never-ending phone-jamming lawsuit). Anyway, as a way to replenish their coffers, the party is charging ‘08 campaigns as much as $10,000 for prime speaking slots at its June 6 gala fundraiser. Romney and Brownback have chipped in the $10,000 so far.
The AP does the first of what will be many articles about super delegates, the 200-plus unaffiliated Democratic delegates (all elected officials) that both Obama and Clinton (mainly) will be pursuing. But don't get too caught up in this fight since these folks will go with the candidate who has the best chance to be the nominee, even if that means changing allegiances a few times.
With Congress in the midst of Memorial Day recess, the reviews aren't great for the new sheriffs in town. Congress job rating is just as low now with Democrats in charge as it was a year ago when the GOP still ran things. This is a bigger problem for the Democrats than many in the party appreciate right now. Saturday’s
New York Times: "Democrats themselves reflected that little came easily over the last five months, which offered a lesson in the difficulties of governing with very slim majorities, especially in the Senate. Moreover, there are real fault lines and divisions within the party, most apparent, perhaps, on how fast and how far to go in demanding an end to the war in Iraq."
We won't be publishing during the three-day Memorial Day weekend. But we'll see you bright and early Tuesday morning.
Have a great and safe weekend!
From NBC's Mike ViqueiraConsulting a
dictionary, it appears that one can use either flack or flak.
