First thoughts
Posted: Friday, May 18, 2007 9:10 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Border Games: Yesterday's Senate agreement on immigration throws the issue back into the center of the political ring, especially on the GOP side. Immigration is to the Republican base what Iraq is to the Democratic one. But the key difference is that unlike the Democrats on Iraq, the GOP candidates are split on immigration. There are those who support comprehensive immigration reform (McCain, Giuliani, Brownback and Huckabee), and those who don’t (Romney, Tancredo, and Hunter).
*** Good News for McCain? So how comfortable was McCain standing next to Ted Kennedy during the press conference announcing the deal? Yet his troubles with the GOP base on the issue might not be as severe as CW suggests. For starters, the deal is now done -- and it's done before the summer. Now when criticized, McCain can simply say, "Let's wait and see if this works. Give the bill a chance" (which is similar to what he said on the surge). Of course, the issue could once again crop up if the House passes its own bill this summer, and the Senate and House go to conference. Also, Romney is the only front-runner who can whack McCain on the issue, which he did at Tuesday’s debate. But Romney has his own problems as well (he once said he supported a path to citizenship and has employed illegal immigrants).
*** The Dems' Own Problems: Even though all of the Democratic presidential candidates support comprehensive immigration reform, don’t think the party is completely unified on the issue. The reason why Nancy Pelosi wants the White House to guarantee her 70 GOP House votes? Because comprehensive immigration reform is a political loser for some of the Democratic freshmen who beat Republican congressional incumbents last fall, like the three from Indiana and Health Shuler. Also note that the AFL-CIO isn’t crazy about the deal.
*** About to Throw His Hat into the Ring? Perhaps the most interesting release we received last night on the immigration bill was from Fred Thompson’s office. Said the candidate-in-waiting: “We should scrap this bill and the whole debate until we can convince the American people that we have secured the borders or at least have made great headway.” The simple act of sending the release signals a likelihood that Thompson is already acting like a candidate. There are now all sorts of organizational rumors floating around (from an exploratory announcement being imminent to key hires coming on board). The Thompson-for-president campaign is no longer months away -- instead think weeks, maybe days…
*** The Clinton Tag-Team: Want more proof of how aggressively Team Clinton is going after the African-American vote? Look no further than today's one-two punch -- with Bill addressing the South Carolina NAACP, and Hillary heading to New Orleans and the Ninth Ward. It comes, however, as Michelle Obama receives another flattering front-page profile, this time in the New York Times.
*** Life After Death? Just after Jerry Falwell’s death, Gingrich gives the commencement address at Falwell’s Liberty University on Saturday -- another sign that Falwell’s influence continues even after his death. By the way, the funeral is next week. Which candidates will be there?
*** On the Trail: Dodd holds a discussion on Iraq in Des Moines, IA and later appears on Bill Maher’s HBO show; Giuliani speaks in Orlando; McCain holds a media avail in Phoenix; Obama hosts a town hall in Rye, NH; Richardson, in Omaha, NE, delivers remarks at the Young Democrats of America Convention; and Romney fundraises in Atlanta and also holds an avail at the Georgia GOP convention.
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