First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, May 23, 2007 9:22 AM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Rudy Obama? Barack Giuliani? If a focus group of 12 Baltimore County voters could build the perfect 2008 candidate, it's likely they would choose Giuliani and Obama as their main prototypes. Both candidates scored very well in an Annenberg-sponsored focus group (evenly split between Dems, indies and GOPers) conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart. One could sense the focus group was torn between wanting a president with a hopeful vision (Obama in their minds right now) and a president who will keep them safe (Giuliani).

*** Other Observations: From the focus group, Clinton has a LOT of work to do. Eight of the 12 said they couldn't support her under any circumstance, and seven of the 12 said she has the "furthest to go" in winning their trust. Edwards has gone from a "fresh face" to a "pretty boy" (one had even seen that YouTube parody). McCain was seen as presidential but also "disappointing" and "old school." There was an openness to Romney and Fred Thompson but, frankly, the group didn't know a lot about the two. Something Dems should worry about, by the way, is the fact that when the group was asked who would be the "safest choice" for president, 10 of the 12 picked Republicans (four for Rudy, four for McCain, two for Romney and one each for Obama and Edwards). That's right, no one picked Clinton. Look for more insights from this focus group in Chuck's weekly column, which will be posted later today.

*** Not Moving On: Now that congressional Dem leaders have decided to drop their call for a withdrawal timeline in the Iraq supplemental, expect to see MoveOn and other anti-war groups go after these Democrats. Hard. In the past few months, these groups and their allies helped push the Democratic leaders into a position that's supported by a strong majority of Americans. But a strong majority in the polls doesn't necessarily translate into veto-proof majorities in Congress. Will the anti-war crowd be able to forgive the Dems? Do note that Pelosi says she will vote AGAINST the deal.

*** The Daily Kos Crowd Will Love This: Edwards, who has certainly been gunning for the MoveOn/antiwar vote, told NBC’s Matt Lauer on TODAY that the Democrats “should be standing their ground” and not back down on the withdrawal timeline. “This should not be about politics at all,” he said. “This is about life and death… We need to stand our ground.” Edwards also gives a speech today on national security and the military to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. In last month's presidential debate, he was one of four Democrats (Biden, Gravel, and Kucinich were the others) who said he doesn't believe there is such a thing as the "Global War on Terrorism." In his speech, Edwards calls for a comprehensive strategy to replace the GWOT.

*** Winning the Battle But Not the War? Monica Goodling, the former DOJ aide who pleaded the 5th in the US attorneys controversy but later struck an immunity deal, testifies before the House Judiciary Committee. Is Gonzales' job now safe -- no matter what new revelations come out? If so, the White House may very well have won its showdown with Congress over Gonzo's fate. But what happens the next time the White House needs its attorney general to go to bat for the Administration in a prickly matter on Capitol Hill? Does he strike out?

*** It’s Fletcher vs. Beshear: Scandal-plagued GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher got a surprising majority -- 50% -- in last night’s Kentucky gubernatorial primary, but that means he has to win over the 50% or so of GOPers who didn’t vote for him to survive in November, which won’t be easy. Perhaps more surprisingly, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D) was able to avoid a costly run-off by grabbing 41% of the vote. Beshear seems to have the edge going into the general election. Can he keep it?

*** On the Trail: Giuliani campaigns in Vermont and New Hampshire; Huckabee, in Houston, meets with the anti-income tax group Fair Tax and later appears on FOX’s Hannity & Colmes; Hunter continues to stump in South Carolina; McCain raises money in Forth Worth, TX and holds a media avail afterwards; Obama holds a young professionals fundraiser in DC; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; and Romney fundraises and holds a media avail in Oklahoma.

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 79 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 166 days
Countdown to Iowa: 235 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 257 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 530 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 607 days

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Comments

Ooh! Big words! That certainly changes my mind. Bet the old thesaurus is about worn out today. Whenever the President or Vice President speaks on a college campus, the campus bears a significant portion of the expenses of security and traffic control (at least). Even for the Cowboy George and Darth, there ain't no free lunch. I call it "chicanery" to douse this board with TMPI: too much personal information, to whine and sputter when challenged and to relate personal experiences making oneself the hero, such as the classic: sucker punching a Marine in uniform when he flirted with your wife. How gallant! Especially for someone who refuses to serve but has been willing (before the recent marvelous conversion experience!!!) to send other people to sweat, bleed, and die in Iraq for "your family", or "your business," "your freedom," or on behalf of your asthma. By the way, when you are trying to sound smart, check the dictionary for spelling and precise definitions of those big words.

Mark Thieme (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 2:45 PM)

I can always count on the right people to prove my points. While I readily admit that I may sometimes be wrong on any given subject, there are those who feel an overpowering need to be right. The mere idea that someone else may have an opposing point of view drives them to the brink. Yes, I have ashtma, and would never wish it on anyone. Well, almost anyone. One good bout of struggling to get the slightest bit of oxygen into your lungs and wondering if you will be able to might bring about an epipnany, a change in thinking that you might not otherwise believe you would undergo. I am amazed at the visceral reaction by some to the slightest disagreement on even the most trivial of issues. At least I got a good laugh on an otherwise mediocre day. Thanks! And good luck trying to convince people that you are open to free and fair discussion without resorting to quite juvenile tactics such as name calling and personal attacks.

Darren, MB, SC (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 2:53 PM)

One other point of clarification on the public speaking issue. Often, student groups raise money on their own to pay for guest speakers they invite. This was not the case when Edwards spoke at Stanford U on April 26 of last year on poverty. Or when he spoke at the U of Nevada on May 21. The list is long and easy to find.

Darren, MB, SC (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 2:58 PM)

darwin for psuedo intellectual loudmouth of the month. who else votes for her?

jus sayin too (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 3:03 PM)

How can you miss Michael Scheuer teaming up with Ron Paul? That is news, and speaks to interesting things going on behind closed doors. I appreciate folks talking about a Third Party, but until that moment, later this year or next year, stay focused on Paul.

C Bowen, Durham Maine (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 3:39 PM)

I do not understand why Guiliani gets all this security credit. If 911 didn't happen, he would be corporate lawyer ripping off everyone in his path. He did absolutely nothing after the first WTC bombing. Even though he knew it was still a target, he place his command center in the WTC. Smart move, right! The NYC Fire Dept., says they were ill prepared with out dated equipment and never trained for these emergencies. So how come he gets credit for doing such a terrible job. I am amazed, but then again maybe not. He does has an amazing skill to get in front the camera's for his photo ops. Maybe if he had done his job right before 911, many lives could have been saved. He is not my choice, even for street cleaner.

James Rand (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 3:51 PM)

Subject: Barack H. Obama......interesting info Probable U.S. Presidential candidate, Barack Hussein Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii, to Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., a black Muslim from Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white atheist from Wichita, Kansas. Obama's parents met at the University of Hawaii. When Obama was 2 years old, his parents divorced. His father returned to Kenya . His mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a radical Muslim from Indonesia. When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to Indonesia. Obama attended a Muslim school in Jakarta. He also spent two years in a Catholic school. Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim. He is quick to point out that, He was once a Muslim, but that he also attended Catholic school Obama's political handlers are attempting to make it appear tat Obama's introduction to Islam came via his father, and that this influence was temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama returned to Kenya soon after the divorce, and never again had any direct influence over his son's education. Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama's mother, Ann Dunham, introduced his stepson to Islam. Osama was enrolled in a Wahabi school in Jakarta. Wahabism is the radical teaching that is followed by the Muslim terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western world. Since it is politically expedient to be a Christian when seeking major public office in the United States , Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background. Let us all remain alert concerning Obama's expected presidential candidacy. Let us all pass this around!

Someone Who Cares (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 4:02 PM)

Darren - You are saying that someone running for office shouldn't be compensated for a speaking engagement? I'm assuming you're talking about Edwards speaking at UC Davis. If so, he made that speech BEFORE he declared his campaign. He earned $55,000. Now, if you're response is I'm splitting hairs...that your point is that "officially declaring" is not necessary, then I must ask you: how do you feel about Rudy earning $100,000 speaking to Oklahoma State U. PLUS the $47K he earned for the use of a private jet?

Roger, Oakland CA (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 4:15 PM)

I propose a simple solution to illegal immigration, the 12 million who are already here, the minimum wage issue, existing unemployment, tax revenues, and probably several other issues. Strictly enforce the existing laws, especially on the hiring of illegals. Make new laws which mandate prison sentences for all management in companies that hire illegals and major fines and sanctions against the companies themselves. The result? The jobs would dry up quickly and the illegals will deport themselves the same way they entered. The opening of the vacated jobs would decrease unemployment, the companies would have to raise offering wages to get people to do many of those jobs, which in turn would increase tax revenues. I'm certain there would be a need for a "guest worker program but that could be resolved once the dust settled.

Loren Gerlt, Imperial, CA (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 5:02 PM)

Hillary has promised health care to all, She has not stated you would pay this out landish bill, or would they take it off record like she wanted to when Bill was president. That way nobody would know how much it cost. The one who will come out is the one the far left(with billions to spend) will push for president. The rest will fall by the way side.

WDWend, Tacoma, WA (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 5:54 PM)

Short and sweet: Mexico: Illegal immigrants: Save the money on border guards, take down the fences and BUY Mexico. Tax them like all of us. This will keep them happy to stay where they are.

Dick Rein Tuckerton N.J. (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 6:14 PM)

WE COULD PAY FOR HEALTH CARE FOR EVERYONE AND STILL HAVE MONEY TO BUY MEXICO IF WE STOPPED SPENDING ON THE IRAQ INVASION! YOU MAY ALSO BE SURE TO GET SOCIAL SECURITY TOO. WDWEND IN WA.

HP BOSTON (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 7:10 PM)

Why is it ok to spend billions on killing (Iraq war) but not on keeping our own children alive (universal healthcare)?

JD, LA, CA (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 8:03 PM)

For what they pay the coyotes to get them across the border into the U.S., the illegal aliens could stay in Mexico and start a business. Maybe they could march in the streets of Mexico for better working conditions and for less corruption in the Mexican government. That's where the problem starts, in Mexico. Why should we make it our problem? We have enough problems already, without having to take on the illegal aliens. They will be more of a burden than a boost, just like they are now. We taxpayers shouldn't have to help Mexico out. Our taxes are supposed to be for us.

Jane, Southern Mississippi (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 8:17 PM)

All I can say is RON PAUL.

TK, Martinsburg, WV (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 8:54 PM)

Frances Larson, re: "Darren--Keep on keeping on. Your posts are reasonable and civil, which is more than can be said for many others." This past week I defended a poster named Peeps who was the butt of many negative reactions here. I soon found myself embarrassed when Peeps was outed as a serial plagiarizer. I will spare you the embarrassment of going not far back into the archives to demonstrate just how uncivil, homophobic, crude, and insulting your friend has been right here. He has been outed perhaps more than any other poster in the last few months, but reinvents himself for a new group and starts over. Sadly, he has personally been responsible for the defection of some of our most articulate conservatives, independents, and liberals. You may indeed wish you hadn't been so quick to speak. If there is vitriol here, it has a history. Nonetheless, I do apologize sincerely for personalizing my disgust. In that I have been in error. I let him drive me out once before and I think it is about time for me to take a long hiatus. That should please our friend and perhaps prove a relief to you as well. Good night and good luck.

Mark Thieme (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 9:23 PM)

I have named the current administration in Washgton D C as the BULLTACO GROUP. Rudy has the chance of a snowball in hell. It will be either CLINTON/OBAMA OR OBAMACLINTON. i'm NEARING 80 YEARS OLD. I knew that Harry Truman had beaten Tom Dewey before I went to bed that night. Grandpa told me and he was a yellow dog democrat and so am I.

Dewey Leon Everts Jr Santa Barbara California (Sent Wednesday, May 23, 2007 10:25 PM)

I personally feel it's impossible to find all the illegal's in order to ship them back. If you send the criminals back they will find other means of entering our country. Their minds work in mysterious ways. Sort of like some politicians. Make Mexico pay for their (the criminals) incarceration or they get them back). As for the decent illegals, it would be a whole lot cheaper to enforce the teaching of English and print all documents in English (including labels on merchandise) forcing them to learn our language. By giving into all their whims we are making it so easy for them to take over our Nation. It wouldn't take them long to learn what our forefathers learned when they realize it's our way or the highway (river to some) back. Every country in the world is envious of what we have. Doesn't that tell you something? Whatever happened to the tests former wannabe citizens had to take? They were tough but because of the toughness they became proud Americans. We also need to free those border patrol agents for doing their job and let the rest of them do their jobs also. Vote for the presidential candidate that supports these ideas. When I'm at it, SS should be paid on every dollar earned regardless of the amount of the wage. Let the rich help the middle class support this Nation. Tired Old Citizen

Shirley Beckstrand, Gonvick, MN (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 12:48 AM)

Illegal immigration, simple fix. Every person, man woman and child born in this country today has to have a SSN. Every employer that has employment forms has one simple question on it....what is your SSN. If it is verified as valid you’re a citizen and you get to work...if not Go Home! Every SSN today can be verified on line just like anything else. Okay so now you come back with what about identity theft....again simple thumb print identification. Match the two and you have a bingo. Technology exists today that can do wondrous things...why not move into the next generation and start to use the brain power we have. For all the Civil Libertarians out there this may sound hard and crass but what civil liberty’s are we breaking other than the protection of our sovereign nation....move to a foreign country and see just how fast you are told to learn their language and customs. Politics...another joke! The President is the so called 'Leader of the free world'. That may be true. But he does not make laws or policies. He can suggest anything and must accept what he is given. Congress and the Senate are the real policy and law makers. This 'Good Ole Boys' club needs to be shaken up with real reform. Term limits have been in effect for the President since after Roosevelt.....why not for the rest of these life time politicians. After your term is over you are done period. You can not run again for the same office in the same state, county or district. Your pension is not hundreds of thousands and your healthcare is not borne on the back of the people. Get a real job in a factory, work on an assembly line and then come back and tell me how easy it is to pay your bills living your gland lifestyle in the ivory tower. Then again you could live off your speaking engagements and book deals. Then and only then will the country start to be run as it was intended some 200 plus years ago. This country was founded on principles that dealt with common sense and the common good for all. Somewhere in the past 100 years this seems to have slipped away from those in power…..shame on us as a people and a nation for letting it happen. We need to take our country back or as it has been stated before it will be lost forever.

JD Medina Ohio (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 2:00 AM)

To add to JA, LA, CA--And why do we have to foot the bill for the reconstruction of IRAQ when the sorely-needed rebuilding of New Orleans, the obliterated communities of the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and the rest of the over Great Britain-sized area devastated by Katrina and Rita is being neglected by the Bush Administration?

Olivia (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 8:31 AM)

Iraq is not democracy, it's a theocracy. Therefore Congress Iraq funding laws unconstitutional by the 1st Amendment: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion..." (Iraq theocracy= est. of religion) www.troopshomenow.com will end the Iraq war and has Congress quaking.

Jonathan Kemp, Kona, Hawaii (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 11:57 AM)

It's really quite simple why the country is on the fast track to haites in a handbag. Parents don't, childcare isn't, and sex sells. Turn on the tv and try to find the morality amist the glut and glitter. If history were important in these times, most would know that the Romans, Greeks, Italians, and French dynasty's perished when they reached our level of imorality.

Kevin S. Titusville, Florida (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 1:39 PM)

Mark--Please don't take a hiatus! All civil voices have a right to be heard. Yes, I remember reading some posts by Darren that were less than pleasant. However, he seemed to have changed his attitude and I was giving him the benefit of doubt and encouraging him to continue in that vein. Perhaps he is sincere, perhaps he is not. Future posts will tell. I can only compare him with some others who regularly post here and really say nothing--just vent their anger, hostility and bias. Kind of a shame, because some of them seem to be well-educated and knowledgeable--could contribute something more constructive to the blog than they do. Hope to see your name (and opinions) on the lists again.

Frances Larsen, Newcastle, WA (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 2:07 PM)

I say AMEN to JD Medina, and Olivia's and Kevin's comments above for Thursday. Well written. You spoke my mind.

Shirley , Gonvick MN (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 2:38 PM)

Thank you Frances. I must admit, I have lost my objectivity in regard to Darren. I would like to think that I might be mature enough at this stage of life to avoid some of the silliness of my recent posts about him. To me, he seems the classic schoolyard bully, and I have spent my life deflating bullies when others would not take them on or when others were deceived by them. In my youth, I was the guy who confronted the bully and took my chances. Time after time, I learned that bullies are whiners and love to play the victim once exposed. I could tell stories. So enough of that for now. I do appreciate your kind remarks. I just have to settle down, allow my blood pressure to decrease a bit. And you are kind and absolutely right to give Darren the benefit of the doubt. In fact, I am beginning to feel a twinge of authentic pity for him myself. That's a start. Be well.

Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 3:51 PM)

Here's an immigration solution: The 12 million can stay, but since that represents about 30 years of legal immigration, no new immigration from Central America will be permitted for the next 3 decades so that applicants from the rest of the world unlucky enough not to share a border with the United States can catch up. Abolish minimum wage laws. Build a fence and man it. Fix Social Security so politicians are no longer tempted to import laborers to keep it going. Implement a bussing program so that all areas of the United States can experience the joy of large populations of unassimilated immigrants. Require all Mexican immigrants to make at least one attempt to start a restaurant chain to replace Taco Bell.

D Bass, Colorado Springs (Sent Thursday, May 24, 2007 4:07 PM)

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