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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, May 30, 2007 9:15 AM by Mark Murray
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Enter Number Eleven? Fred Thompson makes it (more) official. According to a campaign source, Thompson will file his FEC papers officially on Monday June 4. In FEC parlance, Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" committee, a technical term that allows Thompson to forgo filing a detailed report on June 30 -- though once he's an official candidate, he'll have to file retroactively. The June 4 filing will be coordinated with a first-day fundraising blitz with 100-plus "First Day Founders" raising a significant one day sum in order to send a we're-in-the-first-tier message. The campaign tells us the "first day" blitz totals they report will be "cash" actually raised, not pledges. The source didn't dispute the notion that the one-day goal would be north of seven figures.

*** His Advantages: If there was ever a time for GOP candidate to come out of nowhere and compete for the nomination, it's now. According to the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, just 53% of Republicans are satisfied with their presidential choices (compared with 78% of Democrats who say they are). In addition, as Business Week reported, there is plenty of uncommitted GOP Ranger/Pioneer money out there for Thompson to gobble up (many of whom were on a conference call yesterday with Thompson). And what's not to like about a plainspoken Southerner who happens to be famous and who hasn't had ties to Washington or the Iraq war since he left Congress in 2002?

*** His Disadvantages: But how does he make up on lost time in building the same kind of infrastructure that McCain and Romney have built in the early primary states? (Frist and Allen staffer refugees can account for some of the staff deficit but not all.) On the issues, how is he any different than the front-runners? (A recent Washington Post story said his record was virtually identical to McCain's.) And is he attracting GOPers' attention because who he isn't -- rather than who he is? What, in short, makes him any different than Wes Clark was in 2003-4, sans the military medals?

*** Should McCain Worry? The timing of Thompson's entrance is not good for any of the front-runners who are all trying to make a big financial splash this final month of the 2nd quarter. However, the candidate who could be hurt the most is McCain, who has put the most pressure on himself to financially perform after a subpar 1st quarter.

*** A Different Standard? Some of Obama’s rivals regularly complain that he’s held to a different standard when it comes to his policy proposals. The subhead in today’s LA Times on Obama’s health-care plan shows their efforts might be paying off: "The Democratic hopeful's proposal lacks specifics but would cut costs while expanding coverage to everyone." But the paper’s lead shows those same rivals that maybe Obama does have a lower bar: "Obama on Tuesday offered an ambitious plan to curb healthcare costs and expand insurance coverage, in the latest example of Democratic presidential candidates honing strategies to achieve coverage for all."

*** Punch, Counterpunch: Bush yesterday took a shot at conservative critics who call the Senate immigration plan “amnesty.” But check out the cold reception it received. Conservative Paul Weyrich tells the Washington Times that “there are legitimate reasons to oppose this legislation, and I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him." More Weyrich: "He is angering people beyond belief to the point that the Republican Party is going to split in two, thanks to him. If this bill passes, the Republicans will not recover from it.”

*** On The Trail: Biden continues to campaign in Iowa; Clinton meets with culinary workers in Las Vegas and then holds a town hall there; Edwards visits with Google employees in Mountain View, CA; Giuliani meets with voters in Burlingame, CA; McCain fundraises in Arizona; and Romney spends his day in Iowa.

Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 26 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 72 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 96 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 142 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 159 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 170 days
Countdown to Iowa: 228 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 250 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 523 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 600 days

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Comments

MMM.. I wonder what the PUNCH really is since Bush is pushing so hard??? There is always some sinister reason behind all that he wants. He never has legitimate intentions.
Bush jumping on Republicans who criticize the immigration bill for politics of fear... even more priceless than Gingrich calling Bush the GOP's Carter.
The majority of the American people oppose this immigration plan. "Those who oppose this plan, Don't know what is right for America", said George Bush! Well you know what? He is right! They voted him back in didn't they?
Hopefully, someone will explain to Bush why he is wrong on Immigration, but I don't see it happening. Why do the other libs freak out about Obama? Well, he is clean, he is articulate, he seems to be someone who seems to speak the things that some of the people want to hear. His name is not Bill or Hillary, and he is not trying for the forth or fifth time to win the nomination. Unlike some of the radical libs in this blog, he seems to ride the middle. I know nothing would please you radical libs more then seeing someone come in and raise the white flag and raise taxes another 40% and just shut down the country and return us to the days of Jimmy Carter(the worst president of all time). I still think sometimes what would have happened if everyone in florida would have punched their holes correctly and Gore had won and the towers were attacked 9 months later. This is why liberals cannot be depended on to keep this country safe.
The best thing going for dems is bush.
Well, Thompson has got the 'Blubbery Old White Guy' vote locked up. After that, it's back to TV.
bamble ramble sputter lie i understood everything keep posted jerry
Yippee!!!! Run Fred Run!!!!
Jerry just for the record. The republicans in Washington (from 2000 -2006)have created the largest government this nation has ever seen. It is clear that middle america will be paying off this debt for generations. What we need is to get rid of every radical conservative who claims to be keeping this nation safe when in fact they spend most of their time in Washtingon lying, cheating, texting young boys, spreading hate, and protecting those who are gauging people at the gasoline pump.
Jerry just for the record, Bush has surpassed Jimmy Carter's record as being the worst President this nation has ever seen. Just ask some of your republican friends who are saying the same thing beginning with Gingrich.
allthough obama and hillary both have comendable ideas that would be good for america as a whole, and they want to get away from the fascist foreign policies which have erroded the safety of this nation, I still am concerned any repub can beat them in the general election, in missouri repubs that may not have voted otherwise would rise from the grave to vote against them no matter who the other candidate is, that's why I believe edwards still has the best shot at the general election
It's pathetic when the repub. party has to stoop to hailing the arrival of a has been Senator and actor as their savior in the 08 race. Must be their longings for a return to the Reagan days. Also, its always entertaining to read Jerry's daily rant about radical liberals. Keep it up Jerry. Your rants remind me everyday about the depths people can sink to and what they will say out of desperation.
Kudos to Jerry! Jimmy Carter is a lackey who rode in on the coat-tails of his brother, Billy. He is actually the worst President in US history! Now, let it be known that John "I'm Leader of the Pack" (Gang of 14) McCain hasn't a chance in hell of getting nominated as Presidential Candidate for the GOP. Too many people blame Bush for the improprieties of this Amnesty-Immigration bill. But please remember, Bush had NO help from most of the GOP's in Congress, especially McCain! What else was the President supposed to do??? Besides, Vicente Fox had more to say about the illegals coming into the US than Bush does. NOTE TO SELF: The Mexican Government hands out instruction manuals to coach illegals on the art of "How to" so they get into the US, stay in the US and undermine the US economy in every way they can, including FREE health care; FREE welfare; FREE section 8 housing; FREE voting; FREE got out of jail cards because local COPS can't enforce Federal law; FREE politically correct protection; compliments of the ACLU; FREE (fill in the blank with your own experiences). Enter Fred Thompson! Go Fred!
This is just getting painful. At a time when Bush needs to at least consolidate and rally his base to help Repubs for '08, what issue does he pick? Immigration, an issue that basically splits the party. I admire President Bush and I think he has made a lot of tough decisions. I have disagreed with him several times but I have always respected the man. However, this is getting too painful to watch. I think I'm just going to cover my eyes for the next several months, as I feel I'm about to witness a train wreck. Everywhere the man steps is a landmine and sometimes its his own advisors leading him right into the landmine. I have no idea how the Bush presidency will wind up looking in 15, 20, 25+ years but right now its just painful to watch.
Jerry, I'm not a fan of revisionist history, because one never knows how changing one factor would change another, but I'm pretty sure Gore's intelligence, far sightedness, and yes, even his prickly, patrician personality, would have better equiped him to fill the executive office than Bush. I can't imagine Gore passively saying "well let us know if you need anything," like Bush did, after Brownie gave his presentation on what would happen when Katrina hit New Orleans.(See tape.)He may not have saved the city and its inhabitants, but I'm quite sure Gore would have engaged in the attempt, challenging his FEMA director (who would NOT have been a former horse show promoter), pushing the mayor to order evacuation earlier, and at the very least, understanding the science behind the hurricane prediction. (The man knows slide shows.)
Jerry, you KNOW that liberals can't be trusted to keep the country safe because you IMAGINE what would have happened if Gore had become President? By the way, historically the economy consistently does better under Democratic administrations than Republican. Apparently the wealthy like Republicans but the economy likes Democrats.
Go Fred! You got my vote!!! Funny, the majority of people that oppose anything to do with stopping the illegals, or better yet the invaders, live up north!!! How about you people come down here and deal with the fact that most of the crimes being committed are done by illegals, the nasty run down homes that have 30 people living in them (but they sure have the brand new cars!!) and EVERYTHING in Spanish……..My grandfather came here from Germany with his parents, guess what, they learned English, became citizens and supported this country! PLEASE!!! Send the illegals HOME!!!
Here y' go, Jerry- a funny story: Bush wakes up one night and is confronted with the ghost of George Washington. Shrub asks him, "what is the one thing I can do that would most benefit this great nation?". Washington replied "be honest and show great integrity in all your dealings". Shrub falls asleep again, but is soon awakened by the spirit of Jefferson. Again, the same question- "Mr Jefferson- what is the one thing I can to that would best benefit this great nation?" TJ replies "keep taxes low, and the size of government small". One more time Shrub falls asleep, only to be awakened one more time, this time by Abraham Lincoln's ghost. Again the same question- "what can I do that would most benefit this great nation?". To which Abe replies "go see a play".
Doug if illegals are able to get all of this "free" stuff from the US government then we have no one to blame but ourselves and if you think Fred Thompson will solve this problem .. thing again. Historically republican candidates have used the immigration issue to garner support and votes (just look at them now), but once they get into office something magically happens to them and they either ignore it or figure out a way to make sure that we will always have cheap labor in this nation.
Round them up, send them home and secure our border so they can't illegally sneak back into the country. I have no problem increasing immigration quotas after that. They will all be screened for disease and criminal backgrounds, the current bill does none of that.
Dear John B, Seriously, a President Gore would have wasted his four years trying to "invent" something!
Ricardo, Don't be fooled by thinking the Republicans are the only ones to blame. It is the entire block of politicians INCLUDING the Democrats! We need to secure our borders! PERIOD
Melissa, et al "In March 2005, Wal-Mart, a company with $285 billion in annual sales. was fined $11 million for having untold hundreds of illegal immigrants nationwide clean its stores" This is the reason why the US government will never do anything about illegal immigration. They are up against big business. For Wal-Mart, paying an 11 million dollar fine is pennies compared to the profits they bring in and this is just one story. It's all about big business wanting to pay for cheap labor and not wanting to pay living wages to americans.
MK,MO , I have agreed with you in the past about this. Obama and Hillary do not have a snowballs chance in 90 degree southern weather. Especially in the South and conservative midwest. There are still a lot of prejudice people out there. Even if they rarely vote, they won't stand for a woman or black president. Sad but true!
Doug, the borders should have been heavily secured especially after 9/11 but that didn't happen under a Republican controlled government. I agree that Dems are also to blame but many on this blog seem to think that the illegal problem is due to some liberal agenda. As I said earlier, its all about big business, cheap labor and profits. Just ask Wal-Mart, and the multi million dollar agriculture industry in our very own state.
Ricardo, It is sad to hear you whine and complain about "big business". Who do YOU work for? Without competition, how much more would YOU be willing to pay for everyday necessities? You blame the same people/companies you depend on to live. Wake up man! It is NOT about the 11 million dollar fine! It is about ALL about competition! We need to stay competitive as a nation and our politicians are constantly interfering with the process. e.g.: The Post Office just raised a first class stamp to 41 cents...Why? Because the (government) post office has NO competition! I'd like to continue, but I have to go to work now. I have bills to pay...
That is it Ricardo. BIG BUSINESS RUNS AMERICA. AMERICA RUNS ON BIG BUSINESS, AND CHEAP LABOR. THEY WILL NEVER ENFORCE IMMIGRATION LAWS NO MATTER HOW MANY THEY PASS.
Ricardo- I'm well aware of Wal-Mart (I do not shop there) and all the other businesses that will use these people for their own selfish gain. But you have to understand, they don't care. They have free healthcare, are on welfare and have many, many people living in a house/apartment so it all evens out. If they actually put forth some effort to become citizens and learn our language they could better themselves but they demand to be catered to so this is what they get. I have no sympathy
Linked on http://www.agnology.com/
Ricardo in California, I agree the root cause is big business as well as small business have became wealthy using slave labor, why pay an american a decent wage when you can pocket that cash also, who cares if some smuck can't feed his family, he wasn't going to use that money to do something important like play the stock market anyway, I believe something like that is carved in the great repub stone tablets somewhere
I second what Amy B said about how she thinks Gore might have handled Katrina as it was happening. And I'll add to that that I think that were Gore President he'd now be taking a far more pro-active role in seeing New Orleans and Bay St. Louis and Waveland, Mississippi and the rest of the Gulf Region communities devastated by Katrina rebuilt instead of going into denial and forgetting all about Katrina the way Bush has. And I'm grateful that late last week Congress passed and Bush signed the Iraq funding bill because of the waiver of the 10% matching funds and the rest of much-needed Katrina recovery aid it included. It's a big step in the right direction. Though I'm not prepared to declare victory just yet because there could always be some hitch....
Democrats are smiling wide as the skirt-chaser with an undistinguished - and short - career in the U.S. Senate enters the fray for tyhe GOP nomination. Iowans don't forget that the cancer patient Fred Thompson whined about the long grueling hours in the Senate - so he quit to run for president ?
" I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him." "I mean, it was just what the doctor ordered for 6 years, but now I have a problem with it. Why? Because like all neocons, I'm a short-sighted idiot and a hypocrite of Biblical proportions." "It's like watching someone get kicked in the head - there's no harm if you're watching, or even if you're doing the kicking, but it's really wrong when it's your head."
I say $1,000 fine for the 1st offense (employing an illegal); $2,000 fine & 10 days of Community Service (maybe cleaning up trash along the border if residing close to border) for the 2nd offense; $5,000 & 30 days Community Service (housing provided if necessary) for subsequent violations.
FYI. I got stuck in a store after the front door was locked and I asked the cleaning crew which door I should leave by and they couldn't tell me because no one spoke English. This happened in Portland, Maine. These folks are a long way from home.
Doug ... i am not whining about big business, I'm only trying to explain the reason very little has been done about illegal immigration. For the same reason that you state "We need to stay competitive as a nation and our politicians are constantly interfering with the process" Unfortunately for many business staying competitive and making profits has come down to paying cheap labor to whoever wants it rather than paying living wages to hard working americans.
Fred Thompson for President...Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha.........BaaaaaaWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Doug, you're going to have to do better than something so easily dismissed as "Al Gore claims to have invented the Internet." http://dir.salon.com/story/tech/col/rose/2000/10/05/gore_internet/index.html
I gave a cashier (oxymoron) at Target a fifty cent piece, she asked what it was. I could not understand her, someone had to explain to her (in her language?) that it was MONEY!
Ricardo is right about big business, Doug confuses profit motive and overpaid CEOs with competition, and Amy, it's "Qual puerta es para salir?
Oh let's see here: Ricardo(I'll pass on the name)Jimmy Carter still holds the record at 23% disapproval rating. Carter had double didgit unemployment when he left office, Bush is at 4.4%. Carter had over 20% interest, Bush is way down the list. Cater had a bunch of people held hostage in Iran and kissed the Ayatollah's rear end, Bush took out at dangerous murdering dictator....Nah, you don't get points for that one amigo. WE replaced the GOP problems with the demorcrat problems, like Dianne Feinstein and her giving offical military contracts to her husband's company and Harry reid and sweetheart land deals in nevada, and Nancy pelosi giving taxpayer money to bulid something on San franscisco bay to benefit her husband's land holdings around that area and Dollar Bill jefferson(did he ever pay taxes on that $90,000 in his freezer). I guess we tied on that one. Gas Gouging? has not been proved yet, probably never will. I will spare you the lecture on how comapnies make their money, since you live in L.A. Amy, Mexicans in portland maine???? Boy did their Coyote lead them past the line a little bit eh? Why did you not call the INS and have them arrested and the owner of the shop fined hundreds of thousands of dollars. That's the problem with you liberals. I think Gore would have been a one termer, like Carter. He would have tried to put us down the path of economic destruction so fast it would have meade your head spin. All Carter did was screw up this country so bad, no wonder Reagan won hands down.
So Mr. Weyrich said "I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him." I find that a little bit odd seeing as, based on the conservative contributions to this blog and the comments of the conservative punditry as well as the conservative leadership... that's the only way they know how to deal with people who don't agree with them...
May I ask a question? How many of you out there who have posted a comment, have acually contacted your government officials and told them how you felt?
Jerry in Texas: If Al Gore had been president, he would have actually READ the August 6 PDB and taken action accordingly, not told the CIA agents who brought it that they've "covered their asses now", the way George W. Bush did. And even if the attacks had played out, he would have gone after Bin Laden in Afghanistan and not abandoned that effort to go chasing Saddam in Iraq -- because Al Gore wouldn't have had to prove that his genitalia was bigger than his daddy's by starting a war against a country that had nothing to do with attacking us. And he wouldn't have shut down the Bin Laden Unit, and....need I go on? Face it, Jerry -- you've tethered your cart to the wrong horse. And as for your boy Fred Thompson? What does he have to say for himself now that the CIA has released the fact that Valerie Plame was, in fact, covert? Your boy is at the forefront of the "Pardon Scooter Libby" movement.
Joe in Ohio.....You are right about so many voters being opposed to a woman or a black man as president. It is a sad fact, we just have to read the rants of Jerry to see that it is so.
Melissa Tx--You don't have to live in the south west to see the problem. Here in Bozeman Montana we are still in the midst of a housing boom. Many folks that don't speak English working on roofs and painting and doing skilled carpentry, and doing it cheaper then Americans would work for. Is that savings passed on to the Home buyer? HAHAHAHAHAHAHH! goes right into the pockets of the developer. Just like all the savings that other business sees from using wage slaves. Don't you ever wonder why your republicans tread lightly around this issue? Do you really think that Fred Thompson will go against the corporate masters? I believe our unsecured borders are a major problem. I believe that The Mexican and American Governments enjoy a symbiotic relationship. Our borders are a safety valve for the corrupt Mexican Government and aristocracy and our corporations and business owners benefit from cheap labor that they don't have to pay benefits to. I would have no problem with sealing the border completely and allowing the pressure to build on the Mexican government to the point where they either do something to improve the lot of their people or be dragged from their offices and their mansions and put up against the wall. I don't know what to do about the 11 to 22 million illegals that are already here. I never hear anyone, including Lou Dobbs, explain how we conduct this round up in a humane way without the use of cattle cars and barbed wire. Please, anyone, tell me how we do this?
Jerry... Bush lied to the american people and made up a war based on those lies and 3000 plus americans have lost their lives because of it ... i guess that means nothing to you ...no matter what you say, Bush will go down as the worst President this nation has ever had ...what Dianne Feinstein did pales in comparison to the Bush/CHeney relationship with Halliburton .... Give it up Jerry ...your party has failed this nation and will pay heavily in 2008... just like they did in 2006.
Amy in Maine...don't take Jerry's comment to offense. He still thinks us women stay at home for a living so therefore we have TONS AND TONS of time to make phone calls. Agh this is why I can't wait for a democrat to be in office again. All of this white middle aged republican american male domination is screwing our country up. BIG TIME!
Sidney - I have contacted my U.S. Rep, my U.S. Senator and several other Senators. However, I think that your point is correct. I get the feeling not many people actually take the time to call or write thier Senators or Congressmen/women...JJ - Look hindsight is 20/20 and I don't think its fair to speculate what one person might've done or not. And that goes both ways, meaning its not constructive to say that Al Gore would've done nothing and sat around "trying to "invent" something". As far as Fred Thompson and the whole Scooter Libby thing goes, I don't get why it matters in his case that the CIA still had Plame qualified as "covert"? Libby wasn't charged with the leak. Fitzgerald and the rest of the public have known for quite some time that the leak came from Richard Armitage at State. Fred Thompson wants Scooter Libby pardoned because Fitzgerald pulled a Martha Stewart on him and dug around until he could charge somebody with something. Now, obviously, I don't condone lying, especially to a grand jury (ask Bill how that worked out for him), and I think Libby should be punished but it does have that, "I don't want my investigation to be completely worthless and I refuse to prosecute the actual leaker because he's not close enough to the administration so I will dig around until I can charge somebody with something" feel to it.
My definition of a bully -- someone who likes to dish it out but can't take it when it hits them. Those neocons are such crybaby whiners when the crap reverses flow. Conservative Paul Weyrich tells the Washington Times that “there are legitimate reasons to oppose this legislation, and I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him."


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