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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, May 30, 2007 9:15 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Enter Number Eleven? Fred Thompson makes it (more) official. According to a campaign source, Thompson will file his FEC papers officially on Monday June 4. In FEC parlance, Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" committee, a technical term that allows Thompson to forgo filing a detailed report on June 30 -- though once he's an official candidate, he'll have to file retroactively. The June 4 filing will be coordinated with a first-day fundraising blitz with 100-plus "First Day Founders" raising a significant one day sum in order to send a we're-in-the-first-tier message. The campaign tells us the "first day" blitz totals they report will be "cash" actually raised, not pledges. The source didn't dispute the notion that the one-day goal would be north of seven figures.

*** His Advantages: If there was ever a time for GOP candidate to come out of nowhere and compete for the nomination, it's now. According to the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, just 53% of Republicans are satisfied with their presidential choices (compared with 78% of Democrats who say they are). In addition, as Business Week reported, there is plenty of uncommitted GOP Ranger/Pioneer money out there for Thompson to gobble up (many of whom were on a conference call yesterday with Thompson). And what's not to like about a plainspoken Southerner who happens to be famous and who hasn't had ties to Washington or the Iraq war since he left Congress in 2002?

*** His Disadvantages: But how does he make up on lost time in building the same kind of infrastructure that McCain and Romney have built in the early primary states? (Frist and Allen staffer refugees can account for some of the staff deficit but not all.) On the issues, how is he any different than the front-runners? (A recent Washington Post story said his record was virtually identical to McCain's.) And is he attracting GOPers' attention because who he isn't -- rather than who he is? What, in short, makes him any different than Wes Clark was in 2003-4, sans the military medals?

*** Should McCain Worry? The timing of Thompson's entrance is not good for any of the front-runners who are all trying to make a big financial splash this final month of the 2nd quarter. However, the candidate who could be hurt the most is McCain, who has put the most pressure on himself to financially perform after a subpar 1st quarter.

*** A Different Standard? Some of Obama’s rivals regularly complain that he’s held to a different standard when it comes to his policy proposals. The subhead in today’s LA Times on Obama’s health-care plan shows their efforts might be paying off: "The Democratic hopeful's proposal lacks specifics but would cut costs while expanding coverage to everyone." But the paper’s lead shows those same rivals that maybe Obama does have a lower bar: "Obama on Tuesday offered an ambitious plan to curb healthcare costs and expand insurance coverage, in the latest example of Democratic presidential candidates honing strategies to achieve coverage for all."

*** Punch, Counterpunch: Bush yesterday took a shot at conservative critics who call the Senate immigration plan “amnesty.” But check out the cold reception it received. Conservative Paul Weyrich tells the Washington Times that “there are legitimate reasons to oppose this legislation, and I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him." More Weyrich: "He is angering people beyond belief to the point that the Republican Party is going to split in two, thanks to him. If this bill passes, the Republicans will not recover from it.”

*** On The Trail: Biden continues to campaign in Iowa; Clinton meets with culinary workers in Las Vegas and then holds a town hall there; Edwards visits with Google employees in Mountain View, CA; Giuliani meets with voters in Burlingame, CA; McCain fundraises in Arizona; and Romney spends his day in Iowa.

Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 26 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 72 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 96 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 142 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 159 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 170 days
Countdown to Iowa: 228 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 250 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 523 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 600 days

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Comments

JJ: Just how in the hell do you know what Gore would have did? Are you a damn mind reader. All this if I would of, I should of.Let me tell you: If a dog had a square behind he would poop blocks.
Jerry, for the record, Los Angeles is a city not a state. I live in California but in LA ..so go ahead make my day ..give me that lecture about how companies make their money .. I cant wait to hear the radical republican definition .. is it something like "hire cheap labor ..make lots of profit"?
Sidney in PA: I contact my elected oficials regularly voice my opinions on many subjects. Senator Specter's (sp?) office has heard multiple times from me, about immigration policy, earmarks, and several other subjects. My local representative, John Evans, from the 5th legislative, hears from me and my family so much I would guess he knows us all by first name....Frankly, I'm surprised he survived the last election, as he was one who voted for the midnight pay raise, and then had the gall to say that he deserved it! Poor guy, his office is right down the street from where I live.......
So if Hillary or Obama doesn't make it through as the nominee for the democrat party it's going to be because democrat voters are too racist, or sexist?
Ryan - I hope you had the same feeling about Ken Starr and Bill Clinton. If nay investigation had the feeling of "I will dig around until I can charge somebody with something" it was that whole mess. And what came of that? He lied about receiving oral sex in the oval office. As far as Valerie Plame is concerned, it is a pretty big deal that she was classified as a covert agent, considering many on the right insisted that she was not covert and therefore there was nothing wrong with leaking her identity. Regardless who leaked her name, the fact that she was a covert agent is significant in this little political melodrama.
I agree with you Michelle, NJ. I honestly beleive it is time for a woman president. The last bunch of white gray haired men have proved to be great leaders haven't they?
How about a boycott of companies known to hire illegal aliens? When you go to a store and the cashier can't speak English, stop going there and let them know why. Stop purchasing meat from a company that you know fills its packing plants with illegals. Before you build a home make sure your contractor does not have illegal aliens working for him. When the money stops coming to these employers then and only then will this human tidal wave STOP!
The Washhinton Times is a RAG!
Carrie - I have routinely (sp?) said on this website that I disagreed with parts of the Clinton investigation and eventually the impeachment. It was largely a waste of time and resources. I think that I didn't do a good job of wording my statements about Valerie Plame. Obviously, it is a big deal that a covert agent was outed. What I was trying to say was that I didn't understand why it was a big deal that Thompson is supporting a group that is for the pardoning of Scooter Libby. The pardoning of Scooter Libby has nothing to do with whether Plame was a covet agent or not. That's not what Libby was charged with. So, to try to summerize, its a big deal that Plame was a covert agent at the time of Novak's editorial, however its not really relevant to Libby's conviction thus its not really relevant in trying to get a pardon from that conviction. I still feel like something is being lost in my own translation. Sorry if this doesn't make sense.
Sidney- I have.
As Kate O'Beirne from the NRO said, "Too bad Scooter Libby can't prove that he was in the country illegally before January of this year so he could be pardoned for past offenses."
In my opinion one of the biggest demographic groups effected by illegal immigration is teenagers. Instead of having a good, character building job, they're off spending mom & or dad's hard earned money and thinking about ways to complain about how hard their life is. This country would probably be better off if the younger generation had to do some good physical labor.
Sidney, I contact my represenatives every week. And I let John Boehner know that as long as he supports Bush on this war and immigration policy, he will never have my vote.
I don't agree with you regarding the Libby case, Ryan. 1) You don't seem to understand the only reason Armitage, Libby and Rove were not prosecuted for leaking was because they claimed they did not know Plame was covert (a pre-requiste for being charged.) In other words, it's just not true Fitzgerald chose to prosecute Libby only because he was closer to Cheney than Armitage was, and would be a bigger catch. 2)You make it sound like the Libby case was Fitzgerald's personal hobby horse. Fitzgerald was asked by the CIA to investigate the leak, which tells me they, at least, considered it a serious breach of security. 3) You forget that Judith Miller went to prison for a year because she would not disclose to Fitzgerald that Libby had leaked Plame's name to her. Libby's lies impeded a federal investigation and sent a journalist to jail. That's real bad. Ask the journalists. 4) Thompson's drive to pardon Libby is akin, in my mind, to Rove's hosting a party to raise money for the Republicans convicted of jamming Democratic phone lines on election day. You may see nothing wrong with supporting members of your party who are convicted of political crimes, but is that partisan attitude really appropriate in someone who is elected to govern the United States of America?
Sidney- Me too. FGS! I LOVE Teddy Kennedy, such a big old wooly bear. His dog is great looking too, also works in the Senate. A great country America. Life is good!
Sidney pa don't do no good, there all a bunch of crooks
Fred Thompson = Law & Order: The White House, another clueless actor in charge
Aimee and others, Illegal immigration does not equal people from Mexico. There are many people here from Mexico who are here legally, but don't know English. Conversely, there are many people in the U.S. from many countries who may speak English, that are here illegally. And as a side note, there is physically no way to stop illegal immigration.
Libby should get a punishment some where between what Clinton and baggy pants Berger received. I miss the good old days when the democrats hated the CIA, and blamed them along with America for all the problems in the world.
Jee-ziz, Jerry, once and for all- CARTER did not "have a bunch of people held hostage", the Iranians did. And to most of the rest of you- Al Gore NEVER SAID he invented the internet.
hey folks, it's already been proven that the largest employer of illegals is john q public. yes, companies make huge profits from hiring them,also, but how do you stop the people from picking up the guy to do yard work or the girl to clean house? the feds don't want to enforce laws already on the books, so they make up new ones just to play politics. i live 60 miles from mexico. our govenor is trying to secure us, but the feds are now offering border agents huge sums of cash to go work in iraq instead of spending the money to secure us. until mexico, central & south america wants to do something positive with their poor, we will always have the same old same old. please, gore would have been so much better for this country than the evil empire that got assigned to the job.
qt,cincnnati oh, nobody is singling out mexicans,anybody here ilegally needs sent home,they're are plenty of ways to physically stop them from walking across the border, what it amounts to is the scum of this nation keeps taking jobs away from americans that won't work for slave wages and no benifits and gives them to these criminals so they can gamble more money in the stock market which makes all the repubs giddy and furthers they're quest for the perfect 2 class society, business writes the laws in this country, business wants slave labor nuff said
Ryan from Michigan - I like your idea...that is, about getting teenagers to work. If you could find a single native-born teenager that would do (for one day mind you) half the work any of these Mexican laborers do for builders and landscapers in my neck of the woods, that kid would without doubt go on to become a great American entrepreneur. It's been said over and over...these people make lots and lots of money for business owners of every stripe, and none of our native sons would be caught dead doing it. These laborers are paid in cash and usually go on to their night job at the chicken factory about 4PM. They surely don't need a green card to work anywhere in the economic no-man's land where illegals thrive in every kind of sweatshop....but then again, there's no work at all in Mexico. Ironically, the home of the man quickly outpacing Bill Gates as the world's richest - Carlos Slim. But anyway, that's just one segment of the new immigrant population, both legal and otherwise. It would be ideal if these people followed all the rules for obtaining residency and eventual citizenship, but the floodgates are open and short-term profits (and shortsightedness)are everything in the land of the almighy dollar. In truth, there is no ready solution to this massive problem - how do you quickly reverse a trend that is at more than a generation in the making? So, the immigration issue, the Iraq issue - selling global democracy...all great smoke screens for the usual corporate rape and pillage that lays at the bottom of all the various social conundrums without a solution...the longer they prevail the more money to be made.
MK, assuming there were a way to stop illegal immigrants from "walking across the border" (which in itself is impractical), it wouldn't stop illegal immigration. A large percentage of "illegal immigrants" have expired visas, false papers, etc.
The left will use the old race/gender card about why Hillary and Obama do not win the South and Mid West...but they will never believe the truth is that Americans just do not like Socialism and Government hand outs. And all of you calling Fred a fat white guy and saying things about his cancer....good to hear ya...makes me think you leftists are really scared of a great American!!! Run Fred Run!!! Just tell me where to send my big evil conservative bucks for your campaign!!!
qt-I never said Mexico or Mexican. You did.
Ok Ricardo, Let me teach you a little bit about economics 101. You see my hispanic friend, Oil companies make 8 cents per gallon of gasoline they refine. All the money they have to spend to find the oil, get the oil out of the ground, pump it to the refineries and get it to the consumer, a large chunk of their profit is pretty much gone. I forgot what the percentage, but I think the USA imports about 40% of it's refined gasoline from overseas, because of the tight refinery market(everyone running at 100% capacity), means that we have to have the gasoline refined overseas, which costs more money. Plus, the added disadvantage of having liberals such as yourself Ricard, keeps telling the oil companies they don't want new refineries built in the country. Therefore, the law of supply and demand comes into play here. WE have China and India, growing quick and fast and they are trying to tie up as much of the supply as possible. There is a place in Alaska called ANWR, but the liberals are afraid the poor elk or whatever the heck lives there will have a stroke if we drill and that is a no go. Off the coast of California, there are millions of barrels of oil, but because the enviromental nazi's of california will burn down the city of Los Angeles faster then the people in Watts tried to do it in 65 and 92, nobody can drill for oil off the california coast. Plus Ricardo, your state and my state applies taxes just like the federal goverment does. Tonight I paid $2.69 a gallon and If I didn't have to pay all those local, state and federal taxes listed on the pump, I would have paid $2.14 a gallon. I could go all night Ricardo, but the hour is late and trying to explain economics 101 to a liberal is like talking to a 20# bag of dog food. Any other problems you may have about why prices are so high, you know where to find me. Also, Ricardo, it pains me to inform you that research throughout the so-called great state of california has found no price gouging in the last 45 days. thank you and good night now!
I wonder if President Reagan ever regretted his decision for the amnesty back in 1986? Probably not. BTW, In The Middle in Texas, I loved your "if" about the dog. Makes as much sense as all the other "ifs."
About "the Wesley Clark factor" -- This has become the quick, common meme to reach for in discussing Thompson. But a look at the facts shows that General Clark did quite well in 2003/4. Before Iowa, he raised more money than any other Democratic candidate except Dean, and raised it faster; he placed better than Edwards in five of the eight primaries in which he was a candidate, and won Oklahoma. Pretty remarkable, especially considering he entered the race late and with little money, needed to skip Iowa, and wasn't a politician. Kerry's momentum coming out of Iowa rolled over all the other candidates; Clark saw the writing on the wall and graciously bowed out early to support Kerry. The myth that he did poorly is now a prop for lazy journalists.
qt, there is nothing impractical about securing the border or rounding up all the ilegals and deporting them if thats what the people in control wanted, but they don't
Wow, Alot of hate here. As a lifelong republican, i am highly disappointed in Bush. However, I personally feel that voting for Kerry would have been just as big a mistake (no longer sure it would have been a bigger one). The reason for that is that Bush is acting like a liberal. The only thing he has done correctly recently is the DECISION to keep after the terrorists. Yes, Iraq supported terrorrism, though not specifically Al queda (though it has been proven that he did talk to Osama). It along with Iran and Syria were the biggest supporters or terrorrism, and they found three seperate training camps in Iraq, which alot of folks seem to forget. HOWEVER, Iran was likely the bigger threat and still is. So the Decision to continue the terrorrism effort was correct, but the target was not. also, a mass military invasion was not the only was to work the issue. Undermining the government from within woulda worked, as we can now tell from Irans recent elections. As for as corruption, Both parties have it, and the Dems JUST AS MUCH as the Repubs. The only difference is that when Republicans get caught, They have the common courtesy to leave politics, and maybe go to jail. Dems Kick and scream all the way, if they dont actually use thier power to get out of it altogether (Barney Frank, Cynthia McKinney, John Murtha, just to name a few). Sometimes they even hide it in plain sight, saying they were doing thier job, and the MSM goes along with pap (Pelosi, Ried, etc). However, the whole congress is corrupt as far as i can tell. Jerry is actually Correct on the Ecomonics or the Oil industry. The oil industry is actually making alot lower net margin than alot of other industries, Like Pharma, Banking, etc. In fact, Oil is making MUCH lower net margin than Whole Foods. Why doesnt everyone cry to get THEM fines for Gouging. Why, because what they are doing is not illegal, and is actualy good for the economy. You want lower Gas Bills?? Stop using so much gas! The relief on demand will cause lower prices. Yhe macro economics involved are actually pretty simple in this case, a straight supply/demand thing. Thats why gas goes up in price in the Summer. On immigration. There is no way can can get Rid of the Illegals completely. There is no way we can get rid of all speeders. Then again, there is no way we can get rid of all rapists and murderers. Does that mean we need to give them all Amnesty? Do we need to stop enforcing Laws? I am sympathetic to the need to earn an income. However, when you have the mexican consulates teaching Illegals how to "game the system" (true, btw) and you have an entire group that DOES NOT want to join the melting pot of the US, but instead wants to bring Mexico here, then there is an inherent issue with what is happening. As a third Generation immigrant, my folks were made to learn english and to assimilate. Does that mean im not proud of my heritage? NO! However, going to Octoberfest is not the same as forcing the government to print everything in spanish because i refuse to speak english. My wife is hispanic and was called predjudiced because she told an illegal on welfare in her home town that she should not have more kids. This woman had 7 kids, was on welfare, WIC, etc, and drove a new car because her "husband" whom she wasnt technically married but was living with her actually had a skilled construction job paying 17$/hour (so much for taking jobs americans wont do). Bush is SO far left on this that he is no longer my president, and i am afraid that Paul Weyrich is correct in that this could split the Republican party. This of course means that the economy is screwed, because it has been proven time and again that higher taxes suppress spending by the public sector. Oh, btw, the person who said that the economy does better during Dem Presidencies completely made up that fact and it is wrong. Please make sure you dont lie to support your view, we are not generally politicians here, so keep to the facts. Clinton was lucky enough to be in the tech boom, and had a conservative congress that kept him from doing anything stupid. Otherwise, you had Carter (worst ecomony since the depression), LBJ (Raising taxes proven to supress economic growth), Kenedy (neutral, but he inherited an economic boom from Eisenhower), Truman and LBJ got short shrift due to the war and the great depression brought about by overspeculation in the stock market, so cant blame them. Can say that when LBJ started cutting the syopgap programs he started to help the depression, he cut alot of the wrong ones(like the CCC). Compare these Economies of high interest rates on loans and high unemployment to Bush (YES, Bush. the economy is great, no matter what the media says. Housing is the only downside), Reagan, Eisenhower, FDR, etc. Bush has once again proven that if you lower taxes, you increase tax reciepts int he long run. Compare this to the high taxes of Carter (90% taxes on the highest income bracket), and look at the respective economies. Bush's issue is that he is spending WAY to much! The war, Medicare, SS, welfare all being funded stupidly. Earmarks arent helping either, and both sides of the fence are to blame there. well, this is too long, so i'll stop here.
long winded and WRONG chris.
Mr. Todd I heard your comments on CNBC about people living the the midwest are upset about immigration because the hispanics are just now becoming an issue in the midwest. That statement is just plain wrong. I live in Nebraska and I have,as well as the friends and family that live in my ares, have been aware and concerned about this problem of illegal aliens immigrants for fove years or more. Another problem I have with not only you but most of commentators like yourself is you never get to the real issues. Why don't you ever discuss the huge cost to the American people if the stupid Senate immigration bill is passed and the effect it will have on the middle and lower classed in America. You people also never mention the huge numbers of people who will be given amnesty and the also huge numbers of chain immigrants that will also be allowed into the country. Ask President Bush who will pay for these people's healthcare and education? It won't be business because they don't cover American workers. Business don't pay taxes, and if they are threatned with taxes they will just leave the country. Go the China and set up shop, then exoprt their products back into the U.S. to sale. Since the average educational level of an illegal alien immigrant is the sixth grade I dougnt their earnings abality will not be too great. This so called immigration reform bill is a failed bill from special interest. Thank you.


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