June 2007 - Posts
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
In light of what has been a tough week for
McCain -- with yesterday’s failure of comprehensive immigration reform and unease on Iraq expressed by Indiana
Sen. Richard Lugar -- the Arizona senator spoke about the state of his presidential campaign in Chicago today. Regarding the Senate’s resistance to end debate and move ahead on the immigration bill he has championed, McCain expressed disappointment, saying, “We’re still left with de facto amnesty because we still have 12 million people in this country, and we don’t know who they are or what they’re doing.” He went on to explain that 40 percent of illegal immigrants did not cross the border illegally (they came in on visas that later expired), and that tougher border security alone will not solve the problem of people who are already here.
On Lugar, McCain told reporters that he has “great respect” for his GOP colleague, but indicated that his position is not likely to change, saying: “I always appreciate the advice and counsel of any of my colleagues, but my positions, especially on national security issues, are certainly thought through.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
As is becoming a pre-debate/forum/being-in-the-same-room-as-Romney ritual,
Brownback is attacking
Romney’s controversial stance on… agriculture? (They’re going to be in Iowa tomorrow -- there’s the hook -- for the Iowa Christian Alliance/Iowans for Tax Relief Forum).“Romney suggested eliminating the Department of Agriculture and reducing farm subsidies during his unsuccessful 1994 Senate race in Massachusetts,” the first line of the memo states. By contrast, Brownback “grew up on a farm” and “has always made farmers and agriculture a priority,” says his Iowa communications director.
We’ll let you know when we hear of -- yet another -- response from the Romney campaign.
********UPDATE************The Romney campaign got back to us with a response. Here's what they wrote:
“Governor Romney believes that investing in agriculture is key to our economy and families. America’s farmers not only provide food for the dinner table, but they will play a critical role in lessening our reliance on foreign sources of oil. Governor Romney is strongly committed to family farmers across this nation and is optimistic for the role the agriculture community will play in providing alternative and renewable sources of energy.”
From NBC's Andrew Merten
For a good part of the last five years,
Dennis Kucinich has held two jobs: Ohio congressman and quixotic presidential candidate. In fact, if his White House bid lasts well into next year (which it probably will), he will have spent two of his last three congressional terms running for president — a sizable amount of time for someone who garnered just 1 percent of the vote in the 2004 Iowa caucuses, and who remains buried beneath other 2008 Democratic presidential contenders in current polls.
His time on the presidential campaign trail hasn't gone unnoticed by his critics. In his 2004 congressional re-election bid, his two opponents — Republican Edward Herman and Independent Barbara Ferris — brought up the votes he missed while running for president, arguing that he was distracted from meeting the needs of his constituents in Cleveland, Ohio.
For more on the story, click here.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Congressional Democrats will spend July getting back to the issue of Iraq, trying different legislative ways to force a troop withdrawal and re-gain the favor of disaffected anti-war voters in the bargain."We have many arrows in our quiver, and we are sharpening them," Speaker
Nancy Pelosi says of the measures under consideration. She announced that the House will once again take up legislation that would require a withdrawal to begin within 180 days, with a goal of complete transition into a non-combat role by April 1, 2008.
This time, the move will NOT be attached to a funding bill, but on a measure that authorizes Defense Department operations. Many Democrats felt that they had put themselves in a box last time out, as they had pledged not to cut off funding for troops in the field yet were using a funding bill to try and end the war. We all know how that ended up.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per
WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh: "
Romney answered questions about a Boston Globe feature story that mentions how he strapped his dog's cage, with the animal inside, to the top of his family's car during a 12-hour road trip 24 years ago. He said Thursday that the pet enjoyed the experience, and he took a shot at People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, a group that has labeled his actions as cruelty."
"You know, PETA has not been my fan over the years," Romney said. "PETA has been after me for having a rodeo at the Olympics and were very, very upset about that. PETA was after me when I went quail hunting in Georgia. And PETA is not happy that my dog likes fresh air."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In an effort to set expectations the day before the second fund-raising quarter ends, the Obama campaign wants to make clear the distinction between primary and general election money. In a memo e-mailed by Obama's camp, they point out that “the only figure that truly matters is the total money raised for the primary.”
“The eventual nominee will be able to raise sufficient funds for the general election, so there is no strategic advantage to raising general election funds now,” the campaign writes. “In reality, the funds raised for the general election serve no purpose other than inflating a candidate’s total.”
The Obama campaign's obvious intent here is based on the expectation that Clinton will have raised a lot of general election funds as she did in the first quarter.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
***
The Reviews Are In: Due to the format and the lack of engagement between the candidates, it was hard the judge the performances in last night’s Democratic debate. If you twisted our arm, we’d guess Biden, Clinton, and Obama stood out the most to us. The reviews, however, seemed to be unanimous: Clinton had the strongest performance. She won the post-debate spin and the clip war. That was crystal clear this morning.
***
VH-1’s “Worst Week Ever”: Meanwhile, the other consensus from this morning's clips: Bush seems to be done. His immigration bill died in the Senate. Key Republicans are beginning to abandon him on Iraq. And today,
Bloomberg writes that Bush will pay a political price if he pardons Scooter Libby or not. Is this the worst week of his presidency?
*** SCOTUS Politics: Well, one good thing for Bush: this week’s (and term’s) Supreme Court rulings. Elections have consequences, right? For years, the right griped about a liberal and activist Court, and it used that to rally its troops on Election Day. But in this 50-50 Nation (or 52-48 Nation, take your pick), will the Roberts-led Court begin to become a rallying cry for liberals? We did start to see that at last night’s Democratic debate.
***
If Hillary’s The True Front-Runner, Why…: With the Clinton campaign essentially conceding the 2nd fundraising quarter to Obama, we can't help but ask this question: If Clinton's political victories this month were as great as the campaign (and many in the media) believe, then why did she lose to Obama on the money front? Money isn't EVERYTHING, but it's something. And if Clinton can't turn what has been a strong two months into a financial momentum stopper for Obama, what does that mean for the fall?
*** On The Trail: Clinton has private events in Florida; Edwards raises money there too; Gilmore is in Virginia; Huckabee campaigns in Iowa and holds a conference call with reporters in the afternoon; Kucinich appears on Letterman; McCain has a media avail in Chicago; Obama heads to Minnesota for his campaign kick off there; Richardson raises money in El Paso, TX and Las Cruces, NM; and Romney travels to Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 43 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 65 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 113 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 130 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 141 days
Countdown to Iowa: 209 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 220 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 494 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 571 days
The Los Angeles Times notes the candidates "presented a largely united front." The report called the Biden-Obama AIDS test moment the liveliest exchange, and observes that both Obama and Rev. Al Sharpton seemed perplexed about Biden’s remark. "At that, Obama shot Biden a you've-got-to-be-kidding glance. A television camera caught the Rev. Al Sharpton in the audience looking appalled."
The Washington Post: “The forum at Howard University seemed to be a guaranteed fit for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), the only black candidate in the race… But the audience largely embraced the other seven Democrats on stage as well.”
The New York Times adds: “The foreign policy flash points that had produced conflict between the Democrats at their earlier debates — in particular, the war in Iraq — were largely absent as the candidates spoke easily, finishing one another’s sentences and offering jokes and compliments… None of the candidates appeared to stand out, and each of the best-known ones drew relatively similar reactions from the audience.”
CONTINUED >>
A
Washington Post news analysis observes that Bush admitted defeat after the immigration bill he supported died in the Senate yesterday. “It was, in the end, simply a statement of reality after the Senate buried his proposal to overhaul immigration laws. But for a president who makes a point of never giving in, even when he loses, it was a striking moment, underscoring the depth of his political travails. It took almost two years before Bush acknowledged, just months ago, that his effort to reshape Social Security had failed. Now he has surrendered in what was probably his last chance of securing a legacy-making second-term domestic victory.”
The Los Angeles Times sums up Bush's terrible week: "Bush began the week struggling to salvage his most important foreign and domestic initiatives: the war in Iraq and an overhaul of the nation's immigration laws. He ends it closer to losing both than at any time in his presidency. And in a remarkable reversal for a president who once commanded nearly unflagging loyalty from lawmakers in his party, those most responsible for his setbacks are Republicans."
The New York Times has this nugget: “Mr. Bush placed telephone calls to lawmakers throughout the morning. But members of his party abandoned him in droves, with just 12 of the 49 Senate Republicans sticking by him on the important procedural vote that determined the fate of the bill… The outcome was a bitter disappointment for Mr. Bush and other supporters of a comprehensive approach… The vote reflected the degree to which Congress and the nation are polarized over immigration. The emotional end to what had been an emotional debate was evident, with a few senior staff members who had invested months in writing the bill near tears.”
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: The campaign announced this morning the release his new book “From Power to Purpose: A Remarkable Journey of Faith and Compassion” on July 3. "If we ever lose our goodness, we will surely lose our greatness," writes Brownback. "If America is to stay great, the moral character, shared beliefs and common sense of her people will once again have to step up in order for us to achieve our true destiny and purpose."
GINGRICH: He
stumped in Iowa yesterday, attracting over 100 folks in the Iowa City area.
GIULIANI: Campaigning in California yesterday, Giuliani
"applauded the defeat" of the immigration reform bill in the Senate. Giuliani: "It was a typical Washington mess in every respect. It could've made things worse." Giuliani's "decision to spend this week raising cash has angered many Latinos because he and the other Republican presidential candidates had been expected to attend the national conference of Latino elected officials today. Instead, Giuliani will be raising cash in Southern California."
CONTINUED >>
The
Politico reports, “Speaker Nancy Pelosi … and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid … are expected tomorrow to announce a new coordinated effort to force votes in July to end the Iraq war, according to Democratic insiders. Reid has already publicly declared that Senate Democrats will offer four Iraq-related amendments to the upcoming 2008 Defense authorization bill, including a proposal by Reid and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) to set a firm timetable to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq by next spring. Pelosi is planning to announce that the House will also vote on a bill setting a new withdrawal timetable of April 1, 2008, although the details of the proposal were still up in the air at press time.”
The New York Times covers the money race between Clinton and Obama, noting that Clinton’s camp “announced yesterday that it would raise ‘in the range of $27 million’ for the second quarter of 2007… While Mr. Obama has declined to provide an estimate of second-quarter fund-raising figures, the campaign yesterday sought to signal its financial strength by disclosing that more than 250,000 people had contributed to his presidential race.”
In fact, the Obama campaign said it surpassed 250,000 donors yesterday. And Obama himself called the 250,000th donor -- Angela Berg, a teacher from Washington State -- to thank her for the contribution. She gave $100 last night.
The
New York Times notes that a presidential campaign would cause the very private Michael Bloomberg to make a major adjustment. "And, as the revelation this week that he had a heart procedure in 2000 shows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Mr. Bloomberg to keep that privacy bubble from popping."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich (and his really tall young wife -- no making out) and Gravel made it into the spin room. Richardson gave a good bite on immigration.
Bob Menendez was there spinning Clinton, saying she "had the moment of the night" on her answer on HIV/AIDS.
And of course, Al Sharpton was there too.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Twice in almost the same breath, Obama made a point that the president needs to be "in touch with the needs of New Orleans before the hurricane hits" and that "we've got to have a president who understands the reality that people in New Orleans were being neglected prior to the hurricane."
Here's the full quote:
"I think that what's most important, though, is that
we have a president who's in touch with the needs of New Orleans before the hurricane hits. Because part of the reason that we had such a tragedy was the assumption that everybody could jump in their SUVs, load up with some sparkling water, and check in to the nearest hotel. And we've got to have...we've got to have one person in charge, we've got to have a FEMA director who's reporting to the president, but we've got to have
a president who understands the reality that people in New Orleans were being neglected prior to the hurricane. And there are potential Katrinas all across this country that have been left unattended."
****UPDATE******
The above quote was from a raw transcript. It has now been updated and should more accurately reflect Obama's language.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroIn a debate with an opportunity to put each of the candidates on the record on their stances on affirmative action, not a single question was asked on the topic. Why?
And the format really led to a big problem -- boilerplate questions, lead to boilerplate answers.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the beginning of the debate, Gravel called it the fairest one so far. Unlike previous debates where the front-runners received more questions than the rest of the candidates, in this debate each candidate got to answer every question. But the format may not have allowed for the most amount of total candidate on air time. There were a total of only eight questions.
We kept track of how much time each candidate held the stage, and neither Clinton, Obama, nor Edwards spoke the most amount of time -- that honor went to Richardson, who was the only candidate to speak for more than eight minutes. Obama was next, with Dodd and Clinton following. At the beginning of the debate, Dodd looked like he would receive the crown for longest speaker, but after Smiley chastised him, Dodd kept his answers to the time limit.
The rest of the candidates spoke for less than seven minutes. Although the format should have allowed for each candidate to speak for a similar amount of time, Gravel spoke the least, barely over six minutes, and Kucinich spoke for less than 6 1/2 minutes.
Here's our rough count of the time for each candidate:
Richardson 8:15
Obama 7:42
Dodd 7:25
Clinton 7:20
Biden 6:58
Edwards 6:36
Kucinich 6:29
Gravel 6:08
From NBC's Andrew MertenIt looks like Chuck was right. By our count so far, the word Iraq was mentioned just four times in tonight's debate.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAs I wrote about constantly during the live-blogging session, this format was awful. I understand what the organizers were trying to do but it didn't work. And that means it was hard to view this debate as having a real impact on this campaign. None of the candidates came into this debate with an intent on creating a contrast. If you twisted my arm, I guess I'd say Biden, Clinton and Obama stood out a bit. Gravel stands out, but for all the wrong reasons (and what was with the casual khakis). Richardson, once again, had some uneven moments; he's lucky these debates haven't impacted him much; he certainly didn't act like a first tier candidate tonight. Edwards was more robotic than he has been in the first two debates. It could be the format that contributed to it for him. Dodd actually seemed to be better with the 30-second limit than during the 1-minute portion.
BTW, does PBS really believe that Tavis Smiley is going to be able to get the Republican candidates to come to a debate? I just don't buy it. Then again, if Smiley and PBS promise to make the debate as long and tedious as this one came across, where it took a half hour to get to the second question, well, then maybe. After all, the Republicans will LOVE to do a debate that doesn't mention the word "Iraq," right? (Actually, I think Iraq was mentioned four times total, but I'll have to double check my TiVO.) Seriously, the Republican candidates aren't going to come to a debate if they think the moderator or questioners will attack them.
From NBC's Mark MurrayGravel, when asked about Darfur, said that dealing with it comes to moral judgment, and he said that his opponents on the stage don't have it. Ouch. And wow!
From NBC's Chuck ToddWhy does the debate have to end on time if it didn't begin on time?
Richardson repeated his argument to put pressure on the Chinese when it comes to Darfur by threatening to boycott the 2008 Olympics.
"I believe fighting genocide is more important that sports," he said.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It's on Darfur. But how many more questions could have been asked had the actual debate started at 9:00 pm ET, as was scheduled?
From NBC's Mark Murray
She just buzzed through another question... "$300. Can I hear $400? Sold to the gentleman in the yellow hat..."
From NBC's Chuck ToddThat's a tough charge from Clinton on the Bush admin, "criminal indifference." By the way, this 30-second format, as Mark pointed out, is not good for Clinton. She's used the phrase "10 point plan" and then ticked off numbers the other time.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...came out strong, but he seems tired. He's sounds like he's running out of gas...
From NBC's Mark MurraySince Tavis Smiley changed the responses to 30 second, Hillary Clinton just sounded like an auctioneer ticking off several items in her answer on African Americans in jail (versus whites).
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroShocker. From... Gravel. He said the debate is just "politics as usual." No empowerment here, he claims.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe Republicans are ecstatic that this question was asked. Both Clinton and Obama were very careful in how they answered it. They were clearing thinking about another campaign. They didn't call for "raising" taxes, they called for "changing" the system.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroI think Gravel just called for Flat Tax. 'Imagine a tax where you know what everyone else is paying...' Hmm who's that sound like? Didn't Steve Forbes run as a Republican?
From NBC's Chuck ToddThank you, Mr. Smiley, for changing the format up. It should speed things up.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...Al Sharpton's face in response to Biden's "I got tested... I know Barack got tested..."
Biden: "I got tested for AIDS. Barack got tested for AIDS. There is no shame in getting tested for AIDS.
Obama: "I just want to let you know I get tested with Michelle [Obama]."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton got the loudest applause so far with her "If it were white women..." comment, showed some flexibility and a good effort with a Paris Hilton comment
From NBC's Chuck ToddCome on, do we really have to let every candidate answer every question? Even the candidates don't want that. They have to constantly say "John's right, or I agree with the senator etc..." I applaud the effort to make sure everyone gets a chance, but there's a way to allow everyone their shot and not lose the viewer's attention. I've counted three nodding off audience members so far.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Dodd goes over the time limit twice in row, and gets chastised (politely) by Tavis Smiley.
You can tell Dodd is trying to make an impression tonight.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The war is going to end the problems of the black community? What Gravel?
From NBC's Mark MurrayTo the best of my memory, we heard the first question on HIV/AIDS at this debate. Richardson started first, and he said he was actually going to say something "positive" about Bush -- on increasing AIDS funding.
From NBC's Mark Murray
There it is. Clinton just whipped out her "It Takes A Village" line on the question of poverty.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIs Richardson really wearing a white tie? It actually works because of the dark background but it's not everyday you see a candidate for office wear a regular white necktie. We're still waiting for the self-styled westerner to sport the bolo.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's a startling statistic thrown out that black high school graduates have a 33 percent higher unemployment rate than white high school dropouts.
Between Richardson, Edwards and Clinton their answers were particularly strong. Edwards went with talking points and plugged his Poverty Center. And in the first question, he mentioned Two Americas. Clinton starts with "it takes a village," a resounding "ohh" came up from the audience.
Obama got right to the issue, talked comfortably about early childhood education and seems to have a strong handle on the topic.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIt's been 30 minutes and we've gotten through 1 question.
From NBC's Chuck ToddGod love Mike Gravel. His opening remarks are on drugs. His heart appears to be in the right place but his presentation comes across as "let's legalize." So some happy folks in Marin County, CA, tonight.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Was it just me, or did Kucinich's wife look like she had eyes for Gravel when the camera cut to her?
Best line so far... by Kucinich: "They tell you to pull yourself up by the bootstraps and then they steal the boots."
From NBC's Mark Murray
The first question tonight -- about whether race is still the most intractable problem in American and about today's Supreme Court decision -- allowed each of the candidates to play to their strengths. Clinton hit on Bush-appointed Supreme Court that "turned the clock back" on Brown vs. Board of Education; Biden emphasized why he fought so hard against Roberts and Alito; Richardson talked about "being authentic and speaking honestly"; Edwards talked about the inequality in America; and Obama used it to talk about his biography and what he would do as president.
Oh, and Gravel talked about the nation's drug policies.
Before his 2004 DNC speech, Obama, in proclaiming his readiness said, "I'm Lebron, baby."
Will Lebron show again?
From NBC's Chuck ToddJoe Biden, once again, getting on message pretty quickly in a debate. The Roberts-Alito comment brought his answer to the present quickly. He's been solid in the first two debates; good start for him already.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton, who has had strong support among African-Americans, went first. "The work is yet to be done." (mild applause)
...then Biden, who makes a strong point about his toughness on Roberts and Alito. (though his applause... eh)
From NBC's Mark Murray
Just a huge shout-out -- and then another -- for Obama during the spray of the candidates. This is definitely his home turf, as we mentioned earlier.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This is Gov. Deval Patrick's (MA) first appearance in the national spotlight. He is the only African-American governor in the country. And he didn't make any grand speeches.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThis pregame is ridiculously long and the candidates haven't even taken the stage. This is absurd; This is what the 8:30-9pm hour should have been for.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHere's a question that I've had all week: why didn't this debate get more attention? Where was the hype? This will be an interesting test to see just how many eyeballs public TV gets on an avg. night vs. cable news.
From NBC's Mark MurrayIt's 9:10 pm ET, and the debate hasn't started; in fact, the candidates haven't come out on the stage. Is this going to be like a soccer match, where the time for this 90-minute debate gets moved back? Or is this going to be less than a 90-minute debate?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
I have a seat right on the edge of the red-carpeted spin area, and already a Clinton supporter has made herself available for spin. Aides for Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX-18) offered up their card to make her available.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At the entrance to the auditorium, ushers were giving away for free Tavis Smiley's, "The Covenant in Action," a companion to Covenant with Black America.
And if you didn't know it was free by the guys giving it away, Smiley reminded you. He took the stage about 45 minutes before the debate, grabbed the mic -- book in hand -- and said, "For all those with tickets, we're giving complimentary Covenant in Action books. Be sure to pick up a copy."
About 10 minutes later, someone else took the stage, asked audience members to shut their phones off and then said, "Anyone who'd like to stay for the taping of Tavis' Friday night talk show is welcome to stay."
The taping starts an hour after the forum.
You think any candidates going to stick around?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Harry Belafonte, Al Sharpton and former Clinton adviser Vernon Jordan.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It's 20 minutes until tonight's Democratic presidential debate at Howard University. Domenico is on site, while Chuck and I will be watching from our TVs (while also keeping an eye on tonight's NBA Draft). All three of us will be live-blogging the debate.
Be sure to check in -- and often -- for instant insight and analysis.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, Howard Wolfson, the communications director for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, said in a memo: "As [Clinton strategist] Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."
But those polls only tell part of the story. According to a new Mason-Dixon survey, given exclusively to NBC/MSNBC and McClatchy newspapers, Clinton is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating.
In the poll, 48% say they would consider voting for Clinton versus 52% who say they wouldn't. By comparison, majorities signal they would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates: Giuliani (64%-36%), Fred Thompson (62%-38%), Bloomberg (61%-39%), Obama (60%-40%), Edwards (59%-41%), McCain (58%-42%), Biden (57%-43%), Richardson (57%-43%), Huckabee (56%-44%), and Romney (54%-46%).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Here's a snapshot of how election politics may have effected voting on today's Senate immigration bill. Because the vote was procedural in nature, simply to end debate and proceed to a final vote, the "yes" votes don't necessarily mean senators would have voted "yes" for the final bill. This is especially significant because had the debate continued, there would have been more votes on amendments that could have gutted core elements of the bill.
But those voting "no" will be considered responsible -- at least in political circles -- for killing the bill. Majority Leader Harry Reid made it clear that if the vote failed, he'd pull the immigration measure from the floor.
The Presidential candidates: All of the Democratic candidates voted YES. McCain, who was part of the bipartisan coalition that crafted and supported the bill, also voted YES. Brownback's initial vote was YES, but later, probably when the outcome was clear, switched to NO.
Senators up for reelection in 2008: On the Democratic side, all the blue state senators voted YES (Biden, Durbin, Kerry, Lautenberg, Levin, Reed). But those Democrats running in red or purples states voted NO (Baucus, Harkin, Landrieu, Pryor, Rockefeller).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A Suffolk University/WHDH-TV New Hampshire poll shows
Clinton with a substantial lead over
Obama, and
Romney and Giuliani are in a statistical tie. It also shows
Edwards slipping and
Richardson rising.Clinton led the Democratic pack with 37%; Obama was second with 19%; Edwards and Richardson were tied at 9%. On the Republican side, Romney had 26%;
Giuliani was next with 22%;
McCain and
Fred Thompson were tied at 13%. The margin of error for the poll is 4.38%.
The survey finds Clinton’s lead over Obama is significant with voters 56 and older, who went for Clinton overwhelmingly, 47%-15%. Conversely, Obama and Clinton were virtually tied with younger voters (ages 18 to 45) with Obama having a slight 26%-25% edge.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Not to be outdone by the
Obama campaign -- after it leaked the number of donors it expects for the second quarter --
Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson has released a
memo discussing its fundraising projections, Clinton's electability, and even
Bill Clinton's campaign help. On its second quarter fundraising: "We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the "off" year. While that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter." (Again, we'll point out that it would be a significant story if Obama beats Clinton in primary money for two-straight quarters, especially with her and her husband's connections.)
On Hillary's electability: "As [Clinton strategist] Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Carly Zakin
As we mentioned earlier today, the
Obama camp announced that 138,000 new donors have contributed to the campaign in this second fundraising quarter, up from the 104,000 donors who contributed in the first. And by the time the second quarter comes to an end on Saturday, Team Obama is expecting that a total of 250,000 donors will have given to the campaign in the first six months of this year.
To put those numbers in perspective, the Obama folks handed First Read a research document of past newspaper clippings showing that Howard Dean -- Mr. Grassroots/Netroots of the 2003-4 cycle -- had about 59,000 donors in the second quarter of 2003 and approximately 70,000 donors in the first six months of that year.
And for the entire year of 2003, it was reported that about 280,000 people donated to his campaign -- a figure which Obama will seem to almost equal in just half a year.
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
Hours after speaking at
Pat Robertson's Regent University, a must-stop destination for Republicans wooing Christian voters,
Giuliani strode through the doors of a Jewish temple in Maryland to address members of another faith. The contrast was not lost on Giuliani, who joked, "If I hit a Catholic church tonight, I'm all set!"
But aside from the late-night comedy potential of the mayor's schedule Tuesday, the back-to-back speeches also offered some intriguing insights into how Giuliani tailors his anti-terror message to each of his audiences.
"Number One: I will keep America on offense in the Terrorist's War on us," he declared to thunderous applause at both venues, reading aloud from a credit-card-sized list of his campaign "commitments" theatrically fished from his jacket pocket. The basic message of both speeches was the same, but Giuliani tweaked its angle substantially during his storm-delayed flight from Virginia Beach to DC.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
GOP presidential hopeful
Sam Brownback was very nervous for 11 minutes this morning. That's the time that elapsed between his initial "Aye" vote for cloture on the Senate's immigration bill today -- essentially an expression of support for the Bush-backed overhaul -- and a change to "Nay" before the vote was over.
Brownback likely recognized that a vote in favor of the bill, which is deeply unpopular among many Republicans who consider it "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, would not play well in the GOP presidential race or in a potential re-election bid in his native Kansas (he's up in 2010). He's supported the bill up until now, and voted to bring the measure to the Senate floor earlier in the week.
***Update*** At 2:10 pm ET, Brownback's Senate office issued a press release entitled "BROWNBACK VOTES AGAINST CLOTURE ON IMMIGRATION BILL," but it didn't mention he voted for the bill today before he voted against it. “We need comprehensive immigration reform, but the country is not accepting of this bill,” Brownback stated in the press release. “We need to listen to the American people on both timing and substance. We need to help ‘the widow and orphan and foreigner amongst us,’ but must do so in a way and at a time the American people support. This is not yet the right way. We should let the topic rest for now while we work diligently to secure our borders. Americans support legal immigration, not illegal immigration. We desire to be compassionate but demand adherence to the rule of law.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It will be interesting to see if tonight’s Howard University debate panel asks Obama about his track record as the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review. The Chicago Tribune’s David Mendell highlights in his upcoming book “Obama: From Promise to Power” that Obama’s loudest critics at the Law Review were black students who believe Obama didn’t promote enough minorities to editor positions. Obama said in the book that while he feels strongly about promoting diversity, he made promotions at the Law Review based solely on ability and didn’t want to appear unfair. Obama was thrust to power at the Law Review, Mendell reports, by the conservative bloc of students who didn't like the liberal students’ tone and thought Obama, a professed liberal, would at least take their opinions seriously.
Since his famed 2004 DNC speech, Obama has used centrist language on the issue of affirmative action. Obama said affirmative action is "a useful tool but a limited tool in terms of advancement" and added that education should be a higher priority. "There are a whole bunch of young inner-city children right now that aren't touched by affirmative action because they won't get to go to college because they're dropping out of school." (Richmond Times-Dispatch, 9/21/06)
Also: "Promoting diversity is a compelling national interest, but it has to be done in a way that is not a back-door use of quotas and takes into account the full record of the students, not just race and test scores." (Chicago Tribune questionnaire, 10/18/04)
It remains to be seen if African-Americans and African-American leaders will fully take to Obama, who is not seen as an “empowerment” candidate.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
By a 47-53 vote, supporters of an immigration bill failed to muster the 60 votes needed to end debate on the legislation.
*** Update *** The vote was 46-53. More on that in a bit...
From NBC's Mark Murray
The
AP: "The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected integration plans in two major public school districts but left the door open for using race to assign students in limited circumstances. The decision in cases affecting schools in Louisville, Ky., and Seattle could imperil similar plans in hundreds of districts nationwide, and it further restricts how public school systems may attain racial diversity. The court split, 5-4, with Chief Justice John Roberts announcing the court's judgment. The court's four liberal justices dissented."
Hillary Clinton was the first presidential candidate out of the gate with a statement on the decision: "Today, the Court turned its back on the promise of Brown vs. Board of Education that students of different racial backgrounds deserve an opportunity to attend school together... Once again, the Roberts Court has shown its willingness to erode core constitutional guarantees. It is a set back for all of us who are on the long march toward racial equality and the building of a stronger more unified America. As President, I will fight to restore Brown's promise and create an education system where all children have an equal chance to learn and excel together."
From NBC's Chris Donovan
New Hampshirites might get a surprise this summer when they answer the knock at their door and they see
The Question Mark Suit Guy.
Maryland resident Matthew Lesko -- the author and infomercial personality who has been telling Americans how they can get free services and money from the federal government for years -- proudly displays a
Barack Obama bumper sticker on his question mark-covered car, and confirmed that he is supporting the Illinois senator for president. In a phone interview, Lesko said he has contributed to Obama's campaign and is "very excited" about his candidacy, in part because of Obama's focus on "getting together and helping each other" and getting young people involved and interested in the process.
One of those young people is Lesko's son, Max, who after volunteering for the campaign has recently been hired as a paid employee of Obama's New Hampshire team. Lesko says he plans on heading up to the Granite State sometime in the near future and knocking on doors for the campaign. Lesko said he considers himself an independent, and in the past he's supported Maryland's 8th District Congressman Chris Van Hollen. And according to the FEC's web site, he gave Bill Bradley $500 for his 2000 presidential run.
When asked if he had any advice for the Obama campaign, Lesko points out that they could take advantage of government offices that provide guidance on election laws, rather than having to spend a lot of money in legal fees to get the same information. As to whether or not the campaign has sought his expertise on raising money, he notes, "I haven't been asked." Lesko said he has yet to meet Obama, but hopes to soon.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Debate Number Three:
For the third time this campaign season, the eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- participate in a debate. This time, it’s from Howard University in DC, and it airs on PBS at 9:00 pm ET. Organizers are billing the event as the first “panel exclusively comprised of journalists of color” in primetime: PBS’ Tavis Smiley, NPR’s Michel Martin, syndicated columnist Ruben Navarrette Jr., and USA Today’s DeWayne Wickham. And the candidates will be asked questions on health care, Katrina relief, the economy, and the environment.
***
What To Watch For: Given the audience, the issues, and the panelists, this debate is definitely on Obama’s turf. Can he manage that expectation, as well as continue to demonstrate that he’s more than an African-American man running for president? Also, the debate once again will likely feature the Democratic field’s diversity with the African American Obama, the Hispanic Richardson, and the female Clinton. Organizers will be holding a similar debate for the Republican candidates on September 27 in Baltimore. But how awkward will it be for a GOP that wants to court minority voters to feature what’s likely to be 11 white males on the stage?
***
Who Else Is TiVOing Tonight’s NBA Draft? With voters more in vacation mode than voting mode, tonight's debate also has one other competitor to deal with -- and that's the NBA Draft. Forget Clinton vs. Obama. The biggest debate in the sports world these days is Oden vs. Durant. Actually, the debate is very similar to Clinton vs. Obama. Oden is seen as an intimidating presence and ready to lead. However, Durant’s upside is considered greater than Oden, and the guy could be the Next Great Thing in the sport. But his downside is that he still hasn’t filled out. Sound familiar?
*** The $30-Plus-Million-Dollar Man? The Obama campaign has told the AP that 138,000 new donors have contributed to Obama this second quarter, up from the 104,000 donors that gave to him in the first quarter. The article adds that the average contribution is likely to be less than the $247-per-person donation in the first quarter (perhaps due to that dinner contest with Obama for people who gave $5). But by our math, if those 138,000 new donors contributed, say, $150 each, that’s more than $20 million (and one only has to move the average donation up to $200 to get over $25 million and so on...). And we’re not even counting those 104,000 donors who gave in the first quarter.
*** Do Or Die: This morning, the Senate holds its cloture vote on the comprehensive immigration bill. NBC’s Ken Strickland notes that 60 votes are required to bring debate to an end, putting the legislation on the path to a final vote. But whether it gets those 60 votes is too close to call. If it fails to do so, it will likely be the end of this -- or any other -- immigration legislation until 2009.
*** Back-To-Back:
A day after speaking in South Carolina, Fred Thompson takes his soon-to-be presidential campaign to another early primary state: New Hampshire, where he headlines a Senate Republican Victory PAC fundraiser. By the way, the
New York Times interviews another person who wasn’t impressed with Thompson’s speech in South Carolina. “We drove an hour and a half to get here, and he didn’t say anything new,” the person said. “I kind of wish, if he’s going to run, announce it. It seems a little bit like a game play. I agree with his conservative stance, but we need specifics.”
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani is in Sacramento, CA; Huckabee delivers the keynote address at the World Congress Weight Management Conference in Chicago; McCain is in DC for Senate business and fundraisers; and Romney charges hard to the end of the second quarter with three fundraising events (in Connecticut, Virginia, and Pennsylvania).
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 44 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 66 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 114 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 131 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 142 days
Countdown to Iowa: 210 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 221 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 495 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 572 days
McClatchy curtain-raises the debate, which will feature a number of African-American journalists focusing on concerns of African-American voters. And the story notes that, to date, Clinton and Obama have split the black vote in polls.
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will introduce the Democratic candidates, his first step into the national spotlight. He has not decided whom he’ll endorse, though it’s speculated he’s leaning towards Obama.
CLINTON: The Politico is the latest to report on the Clinton campaign’s alleged negative-message polling.
EDWARDS:
The campaign should be happy this morning, as the
New York Times has picked up on their Coulter feud with just days to go before the end of the 2nd quarter. Elizabeth Edwards also hit the morning-show circuit today, including an appearance on TODAY. She also gave an interview to the
Des Moines Register to follow-up on her confrontation with Coulter. "Edwards said she did not consult her husband before making the call, though she said campaign aides tracked down the phone number for her. She was sitting in an airport between campaign visits when she saw Coulter on television and called the show."
How much is Coulter a part of the campaign’s last-minute fundraising strategy? NBC's Shawna Thomas reports that it sent out an email to its text-messaging subscribers letting them know they can text the campaign to listen to an exchange between Elizabeth Edwards and Coulter.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The
Los Angeles Times examines the Giuliani stump speech and the candidate on the trail, and it concludes that terrorism is his running mate. As we noted yesterday, there is a new poll that suggests Republicans are perhaps willing to look past Giuliani’s pro-choice stance. But the
New York Daily News says other polls paint a “darker picture.” The
New York Post also reports Giuliani slipping in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- thanks to Fred Thompson.
MCCAIN:
The
Washington Post looks at how immigration has been deadly to McCain's campaign. A top fundraiser for McCain, "who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk for the campaign, was more blunt: ‘It's hurting with the main money guys. Overall, it's definitely a negative.’ He added that the constant barrage of criticism from the likes of Rush Limbaugh is making it difficult to raise money from the conservative wing of the party. ‘Like it or not, our base listens to that stuff,’ the fundraiser said. ‘Whether it's a good bill or a bad bill or an indifferent bill doesn't matter. The folks who are listening to that stuff, it's hard to persuade them with facts.’”
CONTINUED >>
It looks like Obama's camp is trying to one-up Clinton's camp on the fundraising front by being the first of the major candidates to tease out something from their 2nd quarter FEC report. The AP gets the scoop that the campaign has nearly 250,000 donors, up from the 104,000 donors that gave to Obama in the 1st quarter. "The campaign was announcing a goal Thursday of attracting 250,000 donors by midnight on Saturday, the next money reporting deadline. It was 7,214 short as of Wednesday. The campaign said it collected 335,953 contributions — meaning that many individuals made repeat donations — and its goal will be to reach 350,000 by the deadline." Aides to his top competitor, Hillary Clinton "say she will match her $26 million from the first quarter. That another candidate could even approach her fundraising prowess was unthinkable six months ago."
Meanwhile, the candidate many expect to lead the GOP field in fundraising, Mitt Romney, is now noting that Fred Thompson's flirtation with a run has hurt his fundraising a bit.
One of China's top government officials met with representatives of six presidential candidates during a trip to the U.S. last week. The campaign reps this Chinese official met with: Biden, Clinton, Edwards, McCain, Obama and Romney. Among the topics were Darfur and the Beijing Olympics.
CONTINUED >>
This morning at 10:30 am ET, the Senate will take a critical procedural vote on the immigration bill, NBC’s Strickland says. The "cloture" vote requires 60 to pass and would bring debate to an end, putting the bill on the path to a final vote. As with most things on this bill, the vote is too close to call. But if it fails -- and it very well could -- the immigration bill would likely be pulled from the floor again (and will probably dead for the rest of the year, if not the rest of Bush’s presidency).
However, if there are at least 60 votes, the Senate would vote on some more amendments with a vote on final passage on Friday. It is reasonable to assume if they get 60 votes for "cloture" Thursday, they should be able to pass the bill on Friday.
The New York Times: “[S]enators of both parties said they were unsure the bill would clear that [60-vote] hurdle. Several senators who voted to keep the bill alive Tuesday said they would probably oppose efforts to shut off debate.” The article adds that to get to this point today, the Senate yesterday killed amendments from both the left and the right for major changes in the legislation.
The Washington Times adds that the legislation hangs on by a thread today, just two days after the bill was revived, as patience runs out and supporters begin to balk. The change began “after a messy day in the chamber yesterday, with dozens of objections, arguments on the floor and five amendments defeated, at least a half-dozen senators said publicly or privately that their patience has run out.”
The
New York Times front-pages: “The Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday issued subpoenas to the White House, Vice President Dick Cheney’s office and the Justice Department after what the panel’s chairman called “stonewalling of the worst kind” of efforts to investigate the National Security Agency’s policy of wiretapping without warrants.”
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Already this morning, Bush formally announced Admiral Michael Mullen as the new Joint Chiefs chairman. Later in the morning, he makes remarks at the Naval War College in Rhode Island. With Dick Lugar and other GOP senators pealing away from the Bush Administration on Iraq, Biden’s presidential campaign yesterday sent First Read a research document demonstrating that Biden -- for the last six months -- has stressed that the only way to change Bush’s policies in Iraq is to get GOP lawmakers to split from Bush. “Senator Biden said from the outset of the surge that the president would not change course until his party deserted him,” Biden campaign spokesman Mark Paustenbach said. “That process is hopefully beginning."
Also, GQ has an interview with outgoing White House counselor Dan Bartlett, and he makes this confession: “There was never a more benign incident that turned into a bigger messaging problem than ‘Mission Accomplished.’ It set the wrong tone for what became a protracted, difficult mission. If there was ever a do-over, that would be it.” And on Rumsfeld: “There was a comment Rumsfeld made in one of those books where he claimed that he took the phrase mission accomplished out of the speech itself but that he couldn’t get the banner pulled down. That’s just wrong. I went back and looked at every draft of the speech. That phrase was never in it.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A day after his wife Elizabeth called in to MSNBC’s “Hardball” to confront conservative commentator Ann Coulter, Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards made his own appearance on the show.
He dismissed Coulter, calling her “mean-spirited,” having no shame and being “crazy.” He defended his wife’s efforts to ask Coulter to drop her personal attacks, saying, “You have to stand up to them.”
“I don’t think [Coulter] has any shame; there’s no doubt about that,” Edwards said. “I think that's just the way she behaves. That's who she is. And I think that's a lot of what we see from these people who are just -- that are crazy.”
Read the transcript from today’s Hardball. Click here for video.:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the inaugural forum of the Center for a New American Security,
Hillary Clinton gave a vast overview of her stances on international policy. In a speech that touched on numerous areas of her foreign policy experience and ideas, Clinton was critical of the
Bush Administration's foreign policies, even making a joke at Vice President
Cheney's expense. Her speech ranged from topics like Iraq and Afghanistan to China and Darfur.
She stated America must be the world's leader, but must restore its standing in the world in order to do so. She mentioned a big part in foreign policy is to renew alliances around the world and to work on the following issues: genocide, human rights, nuclear proliferation, and global warming.
On Iraq, she repeated her belief that it is time to bring the troops home. "Iraq continues to steal young American lives," Clinton said. She also said the president has been told by numerous generals and the Iraq Study Group there is no military solution to Iraq, only political, and said if the president does not change course, "any Iraqi government is condemned to failure."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Jenny Anzelmo
Richardson
today spoke before the Center for National Policy in DC, where he outlined his views on Iran and the Middle East. His overall message was to engage Iran in direct talks with no preconditions and with no illusions. He believes that with the help of other nations -- especially Russia and China, which have more leverage with the country -- the US can begin to integrate Iran into the global community.
“In short the message to the Iranians must be clear: Work with the international community and you will be safe and prosperous. Continue to defy the international community and you will suffer." He also said that "no constructive dialogue with Iran is possible until we break the vicious cycle of suspicion and hostile, incendiary rhetoric. If we want Iran to improve its behavior, we would do well to stop threatening to attack them. And we should not fund Iranian émigré groups in the delusional expectation that they will somehow be able to topple the regime.”
Richardson applauded
Condi Rice for “starting to break this ice." But he then went on to take a stab at the Bush Administration for calling Iran an “axis of evil” -- saying that would only continue to fuel hostility between the US and Iran. In order to move forward, Richardson said the US must “acknowledge this difficult shared history” with Iran, while encouraging the Iranians “to come out of the cold, and to build a more constructive relationships not just with the us, but also with the international community.”
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Former GOP Tennessee Sen.
Fred Thompson, speaking at a GOP gathering in South Carolina today, hit his usual core issues, tax cuts, and terrorism -- but also took an apparent shot at GOP front-runner
Rudy Giuliani's checklist of things he says a president needs to do to be successful.Thompson, in what seemed to be a direct criticism of Giuliani, said, "The question is what are your underlying principles what do you believe in?" The still unannounced candidate went on to say, "Anybody can talk from a mental checklist of talking points. What do you really believe in? Where are you coming from?"
Giuliani in speeches has outlined six things he says a leader needs to be successful, and said he has identified 12 "commitments" to voters if elected president.
As you can probably tell, the enormous amount of traffic from the Edwards-Coulter post crashed our server a few times today. Most -- if not all -- of your comments should be posted by now. Thanks for your patience and understanding.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Democrats are moving forward with a vote on de-funding the office of the vice president, even though it appears that
Dick Cheney and his staff are backing off the claim that they are part of the legislative branch. Rep.
Rahm Emanuel (D) says he will put forward an amendment tomorrow that would strip the $4.7 million funding Cheney's executive branch operations ($4.4 for the office of the VP, $300,000 for his residence at the Naval Observatory).
The vote comes on the annual bill that funds Treasury, the offices of the president and the vice president, and several other federal agencies.
As NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reported yesterday, Cheney's office has implied that they will no longer use the argument that they are part of the legislative branch as a means to avoid document security checks, owing to the veep's position as president of the Senate. Having said that, they are still stiffing the National Archives.
The veep's operations are also funded through the defense spending bill (Air Force II, etc.) and the legislative branch spending bill (president of the Senate). These streams will not be touched, for now. It's unclear whether Emanuel's measure will pass. It's still being written.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani has a strong chance at the Republican nomination despite his social views, according to a new nationwide Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates poll, which challenges the conventional notions of conservatism.Giuliani not only leads the field among all Republicans, he also leads among what Tony Fabrizio calls “moralists,” because they consider him a strong leader. And 60 percent of Republicans remarkably say they would vote for a candidate who is pro-choice if they agree with the candidate on other issues.
“Giuliani has an advantage in name ID,” Fabrizio said as he delivered a Power Point presentation to unveil his group’s findings among 2,000 Republicans in an effort to more clearly define the cross-section of Republican voters. “Twenty-nine percent of moralists say leadership qualities are more important than their issue positions. If he can hold 20 to 25 percent of the moralists, that will pose problems for someone who’ll challenge him with that group.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark MurrayBill and Hillary Clinton aren't the only ones who will campaigning in Iowa over the July 4th holiday (July 2-4 to be exact). So will
Barack Obama. His campaign just announced the Illinois senator will be in the Hawkeye State on July 3 -- as well as the next day, when his wife and daughters will join him.
From NBC's Shawna Thomas
First Read has written about Bill Clinton’s fundraising email for his wife, as well as Elizabeth Edwards' newest one on Ann Coulter. Well, here are some of the other emails the campaigns are sending with the end of the second quarter rapidly approaching.
Huckabee’s campaign has this: “Over the next weeks and months I will spend considerable amounts of time on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina visiting with voters, listening to their hopes and concerns and sharing with them my vision for America,” Huckabee says in the email. “You can be certain your contribution will be invested wisely to build a grassroots team in each state.”
And since
McCain doesn’t rely on big money contributions from Washington lobbyist types, he’s depending on you, the email states. “With your generous contribution today, we can thank John McCain for taking our side in the crusade against wasteful Washington. Your immediate support is needed to help us meet our goal of raising $3 million before midnight on Saturday.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
After the Chicago Sun-Times earlier wrote about Obama's and Clinton's duel fundraisers in Chicago -- fewer than ten blocks away from each other -- the Clinton camp and the AP were all over Obama's comments first reported in the newspaper.
The comments that have remained in the news cycle still today are about Clinton's experience and fundraising, when Obama said "the only person who would probably be prepared to be president on Day One would be Bill Clinton, not Hillary Clinton," and that "the Clintons could raise much more money than us" because of their connections from when Bill was president.
But this was not all Obama had to say about the campaign, fundraising, and turf wars. Here, we'll provide you with the full context of Obama's statements.
On the issue of Clinton's experience, the Sun-Times also reported Obama said "we're all very qualified for the job," and then made a jab at Clinton by saying it was true in the '90's, like today, that the nation needs someone "to get beyond the politics that have bogged us down in the past." Obama went on to explain why he is the one qualified to do so. "I think that the message that we're delivering is that we can bridge some of the divides that have blocked progress on healthcare, have blocked progress on energy. That's what we're interested in. It's not repeating the same old fights but trying to bring about a new consensus that can move the country forward."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As expected, we received this fundraising solicitation, via email, from the Edwards campaign regarding yesterday's Elizabeth Edwards vs. Ann Coulter showdown on Hardball.
The solicitation is from Elizabeth Edwards:"Dear Friend,last night I had an important talk with Ann Coulter and I want to tell you what happened. On Monday, Ann announced that instead of using more homophobic slurs to attack John, she will just wish that John had been 'killed in a terrorist assassination plot.'
"Where I am from, when someone does something that displeases you, you politely ask them to stop. So when I heard Ann was going to be on 'Hardball' last night, I decided to call in and ask her to engage on the issues and stop the personal attacks. I told her these kinds of personal attacks lower our political dialogue at precisely the time when we need to raise it, and set a bad example for our children. How did she respond? Sadly, perhaps predictably, with more personal attacks.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Squeezed: Anyone else sense that the walls are closing in on President Bush? Venerable Republican Sen. Dick Lugar, as well as fellow GOPer George Voinovich, is now calling for a change of course in Iraq; John Warner is close, too, apparently. While the Senate immigration bill Bush supports cleared an important hurdle yesterday, its passage is still in doubt, and the debate over it will only continue to alienate a large portion of his base. And even Cheney -- with his claim of not belonging to the executive branch -- is creating additional headaches for the White House. Of course, these three things (Iraq, immigration, and Cheney) have dogged Bush for most of his second term, and he continues to persevere, albeit with lower and lower poll numbers. But is this time different? Will we begin to see loyal Bush backers break away from Bush, like Matthew Dowd did back in April? Is this not just the "turning point" week on Iraq, but also the denouement of the Bush presidency?
VIDEO: Sen. Richard Lugar talks to TODAY’s Matt Lauer after breaking ranks with the president on the Iraq war.
*** Lights, Camera, Action! Fred Thompson travels to Columbia, SC to speak at a state GOP event there, and he holds a media avail afterwards. His first three big events since he first began flirting with a presidential bid -- in Orange County, CA, at the Virginia GOP, and on Leno -- didn’t exactly set the rooms on fire. Even at yesterday’s appearance in Nashville, one supporter told the New York Times that he wasn’t floored by Thompson. “It was the same thing he’s said everywhere else, nothing new.” Will today be different?
*** I Want My MTV...: A New York Times/CBS/MTV poll finds that Democrats appear to be sitting pretty with Americans ages 17-29. More than half of them said they’d vote for a Democrat in next year’s presidential race, and they are more likely than the general population to support government-run health care and gay marriage. (Yet interestingly, they are more optimistic about the Iraq war.) But will young voters actually show up in 2008? This suggests they might: “Fifty-eight percent said they were paying attention to the campaign. By contrast, at this point in the 2004 presidential campaign, 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said they were paying a lot or some attention to the campaign.”
*** Ambushed: With Ann Coulter appearing on Hardball yesterday, Elizabeth Edwards called into the show to blast Coulter for personal attacks on her husband and family. As the end of the second quarter rapidly approaches, anyone want to bet we see a fundraising email from the Edwards camp that highlights yesterday’s exchange -- which, by the way, got played on TODAY?
*** Meaty Foreign Policy Speech Day: Both Clinton and Hagel give speeches at the Center for a New American Security, a new DC-based nonpartisan research institute. Meanwhile, Richardson is also in DC, where he addresses the Center for National Policy. Per Richardson’s camp, the speech will be on Iran and how to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Edwards raises money in Houston; Giuliani is in Pittsburgh; McCain and Romney both fundraise in New York City; Paul continues his round of off-beat interviews -- this time with the radio show "Mancow in the Morning"; and Tommy Thompson is in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 45 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 67 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 115 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 132 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 143 days
Countdown to Iowa: 211 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 222 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 496 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 573 days
The Boston Globe writes that Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will introduce the Democratic candidates at the Howard University debate in DC tomorrow night.
CLINTON:
Last night's Warren Buffett event raised the campaign at least" $1 million, according to the
Washington Post. Now Buffett has NOT endorsed Clinton. “But he has already donated the maximum $4,600 allowed by an individual to Clinton's presidential campaign. Buffett called Clinton ‘the person to run the country.’ He has not donated to any other candidate, according to public records, although he has said he would also support Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in a similar event.” NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum adds that Buffett said the American public will make the choice between Clinton and Obama. "I don't want to turn my back on either one of them. I think they're both terrific people," Buffett said, "but I think Hillary would make a wonderful president of the United States." Buffett did not answer yes when asked if Clinton is good for business, but he didn’t say no, either. "I think Hillary Clinton is good for America. Anybody that's good for America is good for business." He continued to talk about Clinton's assets. "I've known her for a long time. I've admired her brains. I've admired her energy. I've admired the way she has carried out her job in the Senate. I think she would make an absolutely first class president. When she asked me if I would participate in an event like this, I jumped at the chance."
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: First Read has confirmed that Gingrich gave $17,500 to the Iowa GOP to purchase a box at the Ames straw poll. Officially, this is part of Gingrich’s series of workshops on “transformation, how to reach out to all elected officials, not just presidential,” according to Rick Tyler, a Gingrich spokesman. “It’s a solutions-based approach to government and politics.”
As far as whether or not this should be interpreted as Gingrich keeping his hat in the presidential ring, Tyler said, “Newt’s been consistent and clear. He won’t think about running until after September 29th. He’s focusing on the early caucus and primary states, trying to shape the debate, and Ames is a great place to do it.”
GIULIANI: One of the
targets in Giuliani's speech at Regent University yesterday was Bill Clinton. Giuliani said "Clinton made a 'big mistake' when he failed to see the first World Trade Center attack as an act of terror rather than mere crime -- one that set the stage for even bigger and bolder attacks culminating with 9/11." At a later event yesterday, "Giuliani reiterated his criticism of Clinton over the first World Trade Center attack in 1993 and said Clinton's reaction was emblematic of a "decade of denial." But he also seemed to soften his criticism of Clinton, saying, "I'm not blaming anybody back then. What I am saying is, I do blame people after Sept. 11. Now you have to get it."
CONTINUED >>
Quinnipiac is out with its "swing state" polls (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania). Giuliani leads in all three GOP primaries, but the lead is dwindling, with Fred Thompson now in second (or tied for second) in all three states. Clinton's lead over Obama is solid in all three, while both match up about the same in general election contests with Giuliani -- though the one state where Obama underperforms Clinton is in Florida.
Bloomberg's Salant examines the second quarter positioning and notes: "Thus far, the Darwinian money quest has divided the field into three main categories: leaders Obama, Clinton, Romney and Giuliani; laggards such as John McCain and John Edwards; and strivers including Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden."
The
New York Times: “By a vote of 64 to 35, the Senate decided on Tuesday to take up a revised version of a comprehensive immigration bill that was pulled from the Senate floor nearly three weeks ago.” But: “The vote did not guarantee passage of the bill.” The
Washington Times adds that there are at least a dozen senators who have said that their ‘Yes’ vote yesterday was simply to begin the debate, and that they could vote to block the bill through a filibuster vote, or vote against it on final passage.
While the Senate moved a tiny bit closer to passing an immigration bill, the House GOP caucus held a vote yesterday indicating that just 23 members could support the Senate legislation. That's at least 40 members short of Speaker Pelosi's demand of 60-70 GOP votes before she'll bring the immigration reform bill to the House floor.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post adds Sen. John Warner (who praised Lugar's speech) and even Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell to the list of senators changing their tone on Iraq.
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), a supporter of the troop surge and the war,
said he would wait until the September report to reassess the Iraq situation. But he added that when Lugar speaks, “everybody tends to listen.”
The
New York Times also notes that Sen. George Voinovich “echoed Mr. Lugar’s message in a letter to the president on Tuesday, a critique whose timing was coordinated to follow on the heels of Mr. Lugar’s. ‘I am also concerned that we are running out of time,’ Mr. Voinovich wrote in the letter.”
Today's installment of the Washington Post’s Cheney series documents the vice president’s role in various energy and environments issues. And it concludes with the news that, essentially, Cheney drove ex-EPA head Christie Whitman into resigning.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
The wife of Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards called into MSNBC’s “Hardball” on Tuesday to confront Ann Coulter on her personal attacks on her husband and family.
Coulter, the controversial conservative commentator, appeared on an outdoor set with host Chris Matthews -- and also with dozens of supporters and detractors waiting to ask questions. But there was another person waiting to pose a question to Coulter: Elizabeth Edwards.
According to an Edwards campaign aide, Elizabeth Edwards wanted to call into the show when she heard that Coulter would be taking questions, and she called a Hardball producer to get the phone number needed to dial into the show. The result is the exchange below:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
When
Fred Thompson arrived in Nashville this morning, he had a warm homecoming. Supporters greeted him with loud cheers of "Run Fred, Run." At another point, supporters started to chant "Fred, Fred, Fred." Some held home-made signs saying, "I'm Proud to be a Fred Head, FDT '08." The TV star and former senator signed a few.
Thompson recounted his decision to run for the presidency. "I've never craved the office of the presidency," he said. "You all know me well enough to know that. I've always been a Tennessean; I've always run in Tennessee. But these times are different and to have the opportunity maybe to make a difference ... in the direction of your country, and to be able to provide some leadership, is something that you cannot turn your back on."
At this point, a supporter in the audience yelled, "Your country needs you Fred!" The rest of the supporters continued to cheer for Thompson, who kept the visit short.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The comprehensive immigration bill in the Senate cleared its first hurdle this week when the "motion to proceed" picked up 64 votes today (it needed 60 to move forward). However, as NBC's Ken Strickland has reported, the actual heavy lifting begins with votes on amendments that could affect the core elements in the bill -- and that could determine whether or not it eventually passes the Senate.
Here are some interesting tidbits from today's 64-35 vote in the Senate:
-- All presidential candidates, Democrat and Republican, voted for the motion to proceed (Biden, Brownback, Clinton, Dodd, McCain, Obama)
-- 24 Republicans voted for it (Bennett, Bond, Brownback, Burr, Coleman, Collins, Craig, Domenici, Ensign, Graham, Gregg, Hagel, Kyl, Lott, Lugar, Martinez, McCain, McConnell, Murkowski, Snowe, Specter, Stevens, Voinovich, Warner)
-- 9 Democrats voted against it (Baucus, Bayh, Byrd, Dorgan, Landrieu, McCaskill, Rockefeller, Stabenow, Tester)
-- the independents were split: Lieberman voted for it, while Sanders voted against it.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
Bill Clinton won't hit the campaign trail for his wife until next week, but he's already pitching in -- at least electronically -- to help boost
Hillary's second quarter fundraising numbers. In an email solicitation that just arrived in our inboxes, Clinton says 1) that Hillary's opponents might outraise her; 2) that she won't let Swift Boat-like attacks go unanswered; and 3) that she turned down high-paying jobs out of law school to help children -- which is similar to the message that
Obama tries to get across in his
first TV ads.
"Come June 30, all the campaigns will be measured on what they raised in the last three months. We have to raise more online before then to show her strength and keep her campaign going," Bill says. "The fact is, our opponents may very well outraise us -- and we can't afford to lose momentum now."
More: "She's also the best candidate to beat the Republican machine. You know Hillary will never let a swift boat-style attack go unanswered. Even when they outspent her two-to-one in her Senate campaign, she still came out on top -- in a landslide. And when she ran for reelection, she won almost 60 percent of the votes in New York counties that went for President Bush in 2004. When Republicans saw what she did, instead of what her opponents said about her, they voted for her too."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Edwards campaign said they originally planned to go on the air the week after July 4th, but “we’re running ahead of our budget plan, so we decided to get on the air,” Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince said on a conference call with reporters. They call this a “strong buy,” but did not elaborate except to say, “You’re going to see it a lot if you’re in New Hampshire,” Prince said.
Edwards raised $14 million in the first quarter -- third in the Democratic race behind Clinton ($26 million) and Obama ($25.7 million). The campaign says their goal for this quarter is $9 million, which would again be behind Clinton and Obama, who are widely expected to raise upwards of $20 million each. Edwards could potentially find himself doubled in campaign cash, but his campaign says the goal all along has been to raise $22 million by the end of the second quarter and $40 million by the end of the year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
Sportswriting legend Grantland Rice once famously opened his story about a 1924 football game with the line, "Outlined against a blue-gray October sky, the Four Horsemen rode again."
He was definitely not describing any members of Congress.
Last night's annual Congressional baseball game -- won by the Republicans (for the seventh straight year) 5-2 -- definitely didn't feature any athletic performances of Horsemen-like proportions.
After all, Washingtonians don't pile in to DC's RFK stadium -- the temporary home of the washout Washington Nationals -- because they expect no-hitters or grand slams from their elected officials. There's a certain undeniable fun to be had in watching our nation's revered officeholders drop a pop-up fly or wildly overthrow to second base. With apologies to MLB Hall-of-Famer Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY-3.27 ERA), we didn't elect them because they can play baseball.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
House Republicans have a message to supporters of comprehensive immigration reform: Beware all ye who enter here. They plan to pass an internal House GOP resolution demonstrating their opposition to the Senate bill before it even gets to the House. So they put it to a vote this morning at their weekly meeting -- but only got to a "test" procedural vote before they ran out of time. They'll get to it tomorrow or the next day. UPDATE: They'll actually meet at 5:30 pm ET today to do this.
House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi has said that she wants the president to guarantee 70 Republican votes in the House for comprehensive reform before she puts the measure on the floor. Also, House Democrats are wrapping up a series of listening sessions with their rank and file. Some themes emerging: Dems are looking for those 70 Republicans to provide some cover; many don't like the guest-worker program and the points system in the Senate bill; and many Democrats, like Republicans, are concerned about beefing up border security first.
Meanwhile,
President Bush today made another -- perhaps final? -- pitch for the Senate to pass the Senate bill, as the chamber restarts debate on the legislation. "The first thing that we've got to recognize in the country is that the system isn't working," Bush said at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House. "The immigration system needs reform. The status quo is unacceptable... [And] if the status quo is unacceptable, we need to replace it with something that is acceptable, and have been working toward that end with both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carly Zakin
Presidential hopeful
Mike Huckabee hosted a conference call with bloggers this morning to emphasize his conservatism and his commitment to persevere in the race despite a lack of attention from the national media. But he had two of his closest supporters to do most of the talking for him. Evangelical leader Dr. James Robinson and Dr. Michael P. Farris, chairman and general counsel of the Home Legal Defense Association. praised Huckabee for his conviction, character, ability to communicate as a leader, and experience as governor. Both men drew comparisons to President Reagan. And in what seemed to be a heavy-handed jab directed at
Giuliani (and now possibly
Bloomberg), Farris added, “We need a governor. Governors win; senators don’t. Certainly mayors of New York don’t win a presidency.”
Both Huckabee and his supporters addressed the effects of blogging and the national media attention. Huckabee praised bloggers “who have really become one of the most important informational sources in the process of electing the president. The impact of blogging and how that has such an incredible effect in getting information out to people is probably going to be the story of the ’08 race.” Robinson addressed the need for a leader to be comfortable with a national media that “tends to distort with what’s being said and misrepresent.”
Some highlights in the Q&A:
-- Huckabee said he does not the support the immigration bill the way it is
-- He acknowledged the money his campaign will raise for the 2nd quarter will not be of the same level that “some of these other guys” have been raising. But while the national press will inevitably support them, Huckabee is confident that “the trajectory will continue to go upward"
-- He called Giuliani and McCain’s decision to pull out of the Iowa straw poll a sign of “their unwillingness to play the game.”
-- He said supports the Fair Tax
-- He wants to achieve energy independence by the end of his second term
From NBC's Mark Murray
In the first GOP presidential debate back in May, MSNBC's Chris Matthews -- citing poll numbers showing that few Americans think that the country is on the right track -- asked Giuliani: How do we get back to Ronald Reagan's morning in America? Giuliani replied, "We get back to it with optimism."
That kind of question didn't reappear at the next two GOP debates, but the
Politico reports that
Romney yesterday noted its premise: that the country is headed in the wrong direction. "'We're going to change the course of America,' Romney told about 800 donors gathered for a pep rally at the Boston Red Sox's Fenway Park. 'It's on a course right now that's just not quite right. We've got a lot of problems around the world that need our leadership as a nation.'"
The Politico adds that Romney's words were "some of his most unambiguous language to date to distance himself from President Bush." And we wouldn't be surprised if more Republican presidential candidates use this kind of language 1) to separate themselves from Bush and 2) to hammer home the message that they represent change -- as hard as that might be for a Republican in this environment.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In case you were wondering just how it’s done, the Columbia State newspaper has an up-and-running feature on how to win the South Carolina Republican and Democratic primaries. It outlines who the influence peddlers are, must-stops for candidates and where to find the necessary voting blocs.
How to win the Democratic Primary
How to win the Republican primary
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Edwards is up with his
first ad in New Hampshire today, a 30-second spot highlighting his focus on poverty. In it, he repeats part of his stump speech, telling viewers, "It's time for the President of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war," the
Manchester Union-Leader reports. Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, appears briefly, and the ad shows close-ups of Edwards, addressing supporters. Americans "know what needs to be done to lift families out of poverty, to strengthen the middle class,” Edwards says. “Will we make America the country of the 21st century? That depends on all of us."
Dodd, Richardson and Romney are already up on the air in the Granite State. Edwards’ first campaign TV ad was in Iowa in May. In it, he urges Congress to end the war in Iraq.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Senior advisers say the presumed presidential candidate
Fred Thompson will be greeted by supporters when he lands in Nashville today (he'll arrive on a private plane and go right to small hangar)Thompson will work a rope line. Advisers say he will also tour potential office space for his national headquarters in the Old Center City called Fall School, the oldest existing school that has been converted to office space.
Advisers say no deals have been signed either in Tennessee or Northern Virginia on office space.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Return To Regent: Giuliani addresses Pat Robertson’s Regent University today, after the tragic Virginia Tech shootings nixed his previously scheduled appearance back in mid-April. This speech -- which isn’t exactly on friendly turf for a pro-choice, pro-stem cell candidate -- comes at a rough time for the campaign (declining poll numbers, a top Iowa adviser who’s headed to OMB, a South Carolina state chair who was indicted on cocaine charges, and more dents to his 9/11 reputation). Yet given the venue, it appears Giuliani will stick with his meat and potatoes: A campaign spokesperson expects him to talk about his “12 commitments,” including the one he unveiled last week in Iowa on fiscal discipline. But he won’t make new news on social issues, the spokesperson says.
*** Has Bush lost Dick Lugar? Last night, the venerable GOP senator called for a change of course in Iraq, even before General Petraeus’ September report (although Lugar isn’t calling for complete troop withdrawal). "In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved,” he said. What’s significant about Lugar’s speech last night is that it provides covers for other Republicans -- and just not those in blue states -- who want to turn the page on Iraq.
*** Wanna Fire Up Lefty Bloggers? Point out this article from Fortune about Hillary Clinton's courtship of big business, including a Bush Ranger or two. And then remind those same lefty bloggers that in Barack Obama's first TV ads, he features a GOP state legislator (who has endorsed John McCain, by the way) talking about his ability to build consensus. Seriously, there are a lot of influential folks on the left who hate when Democrats look like they are reaching out to Republicans. It will be interesting if Edwards tries to capitalize on this. Then again, both Clinton and Obama need to prove electability, so the more their GOP courtships are reported, the better for each of them -- particularly Obama, who is counting on independents (and even some Republicans) to crossover (in both Iowa and New Hampshire in particular) and vote for him in the Dem primary or caucuses.
*** Supreme Decision: Is it us, or was yesterday’s 5-4 Supreme Court ruling -- which said it’s unconstitutional to ban union- and corporate-backed ads that mention a candidate’s name 60 days before an election -- a really BIG deal that changes the face of the 2008 campaign more so than any of us can fathom right now? Imagine if ACT (the Democratic group that tried to defeat Bush in '04) or Progress for America (The GOP group formed to help re-elect Bush) could have directly targeted Kerry or Bush respectively right before the election? Now they can. Perhaps the bigger beneficiary of this decision is actually the new Democratic congressional majority. Because now, the Democrats can watch their labor friends dump a ton of money on the airwaves rather than just on the ground.
*** Special Election Time: Today is the special election in California to replace the late Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D), who died of cancer earlier this year. African-American Democratic lawmakers have long held this LA district. But with several black candidates in the running -- including state Rep. Laura Richardson and Valerie McDonald (daughter of the late congresswoman) -- could that leave an opening for Hispanic state Sen. Jenny Oropeza? The Congressional Hispanic Caucus has infused Oropeza’s campaign with cash, and she is the candidate of choice of the state and local Democratic parties. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held Aug. 21. Polls open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET.
*** Warren, Not Jimmy: Hillary Clinton tonight in New York has an open-press conversation with famed investor Warren Buffett. Per a Clinton spokesman, Buffett hasn’t endorsed her. But: “We’re delighted that he’s hosting this event for her.”
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden’s son Beau campaigns for his father in Iowa; Edwards raises money in California; Huckabee holds a conference call this morning with bloggers; McCain has four fundraisers in Virginia; Obama is in Chicago, and then heads to DC; Paul appears on G4 TV's news program "Attack of the Show"; Romney raises money in Florida and Boston; Fred Thompson is in Nashville; and Tommy Thompson is in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 46 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 68 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 116 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 133 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 144 days
Countdown to Iowa: 212 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 223 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 497 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 574 days
BIDEN: The Delaware senator named an Iraq veteran -- who is a native of Mississippi and lives in Des Moines -- as the head of his veterans committee.
CLINTON:
South Carolina conservative Rep. Bob Inglis said yesterday he was
hoping that Clinton would be the Dem nominee. "I'm sort of hopeful Hillary is the nominee because I think that's winnable," Inglis told a small crowd Monday. "It's more of a challenge if Obama is the nominee because he has less of a record to defend." Inglis has yet to endorse in the GOP primary.
Bill Clinton was in Phoenix last night
raising money for the Arizona Democratic Party.
Fortune's Nina Easton has a great look at how big business is being courted in the presidential race. The star of this piece is Clinton, who is having lots of success wooing some key business leaders who backed Bush.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The
Washington Post writes about the recent hiccups facing the Giuliani campaign: "Every campaign faces bad news at one time or another, but with a fundraising deadline looming Saturday, the timing couldn't be worse. Most voters are not tuned in, but for those who are giving and raising money for the former New York mayor, the heartburn-inducing headlines may make them think twice. The string of events -- some Giuliani's making, some out of his hands -- comes as national polls continue to show him ahead of his rivals, but surveys in early voting states have him trailing or losing ground."
A week after Giuliani’s South Carolina chairman was indicted on cocaine trafficking charges, Giuliani replaced him -- with the indicted man’s father.
The New York Daily News highlights a poll showing Bloomberg hurting Giuliani (slightly) in a three-way Clinton-Giuliani-Bloomberg general election.
MCCAIN:
In an interview with the
AP, McCain dismissed some of the recent polls in South Carolina that have showed him in single digits. He said that poll is just not true. With "veterans alone, we are doing much better than that," he said. The AP story also indicates that more staff changes in the campaign "could be in the offing."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times on the Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling yesterday on campaign finance: “While the decision did not deal directly with the soft-money ban, which is in a separate section of the law, election experts said the effect would be to undercut the soft-money section as well by permitting a largely unlimited flow of money from corporate treasuries to pay for the all-important broadcast advertisements in the weeks before primary and general elections. Groups seeking to influence the outcome of the election could easily sidestep the prohibition on explicit appeals for or against candidates, supporters of the law said.”
By the way, the New York Sun's Sager notes that Giuliani's statement in support of the Court's decision is a change. Giuliani had been "supportive of McCain Feingold" in the past. Adds Sager: "Giuliani may never have specifically addressed the ad ban, but I've never heard a skeptical word from him on the issue until now."
Following up on his tough assessment on "Meet the Press," the Politico's Roger Simon offers up a does of what he believes is reality regarding Bloomberg and wonders if he's simply a press fascination because of his checkbook.
As of this writing, Bush is participating in a briefing on the comprehensive immigration reform bill he supports. Meanwhile, the Senate today returns to complete work on the bill, staring work most likely this afternoon, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. Supporters face several hurdles before a final vote, which makes final passage hard to predict. The bill's supporters are optimistic, while their opponents feel momentum is on their side. However, there is consensus from both Democratic and Republican leaders to dispose of the bill this week before the Senate adjourns for its July 4th recess.
The first action should occur late this morning with a procedural vote that simply seeks to bring the bill to the floor. This "motion to proceed" will require 60 votes. And assuming the 60 votes are there (a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption), the Senate will then start the heavy lifting with votes on amendments that could ultimately affect the core elements of the legislation: border security and workplace enforcement, a guest-worker program, and a path to citizenship.
There will be votes of about two dozen amendments that address everything from what critics call an amnesty provision to a measure shifting the emphasis of future immigration back to family reunification. Some of the amendments are considered "poison pills," which, if passed, could dissolve the fragile coalition holding the bill together.
The Washington Times examines the tough road ahead for the immigration bill.
NDN and the National Council of La Raza hold a media briefing this morning to discuss the current immigration debate and the Latino community.
Last night, GOP Sen. Dick Lugar, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called on President Bush to initiate a change of course in Iraq -- with some troop redeployments -- even before General Petraeus issues his September report, NBC’s Strickland says. "I think we know enough now," he said after delivering a lengthy speech on the Senate floor. "What we need is a plan for repositioning [some troops] and for diplomacy." "We don't owe the President our unquestioning agreement, but we do owe him and the American people our constructive engagement," Lugar said. "In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved.”
The Indianapolis Star on Lugar’s speech: “He still does not support a total troop withdrawal, which he said would increase the risk of a wider regional conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and be a ‘severe blow’ to U.S. credibility… Lugar's views carry extra weight because he's one of the leading foreign policy experts in Congress. He's also seen as someone who does not take partisan shots.”
The AP: “The unusually blunt assessment Monday deals a political blow to Bush, who has relied heavily on GOP support to stave off anti-war legislation. It also comes as a surprise. Most Republicans have said they were willing to wait until September to see if Bush's recently ordered troop buildup in Iraq was working.”
Today's installment of the Washington Post's Cheney series focuses on the vice president’s role in all things that have NOTHING to do with the war.
And as he faces sentencing, ex-Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman (D) is trying one last defense: blaming Karl Rove. "It may be a long shot as a legal argument, but at least one influential Republican and a number of Democrats are questioning whether politics may have played a role in the case.”
From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Last night, the group, “Indian-Americans for
Hillary” held a fundraiser at the Sheraton New York Hotel in Manhattan. In some ways this was the coming out party for the Indian-American community’s ability to fundraise and organize for a high-profile candidate, and it came just days after an
Obama opposition research document blasted Clinton's ties to Indian-American donors (Obama later apologized for the document).
Clinton spoke of her and former President Bill Clinton’s visits to India, and praised the Indian-American community’s commitment to education. Her speech ended to a standing ovation and the familiar strains of KT Tunstall’s “Suddenly I See.” But nowhere to be heard was her anointed campaign tune, Celine Dion’s “You and I.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama is up in Iowa this week with the
first TV ads of his campaign, the
AP reports. They are biographical and try to highlight his sense of social justice and bill him as a consensus builder.
The first ad focuses on Obama’s decision to turn down lucrative offers from law firms after graduating from Harvard Law. Instead, he moved to Chicago to work as a civil rights attorney. The second focuses on his work in the Illinois state Senate. Both ads feature Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe and Republican Illinois state Sen. Kirk Dillard.
"Senator Obama worked on some of the deepest issues we had and was successful in a bipartisan way," Dillard says in the second ad.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Soon after the Supreme Court
ruled today that a Wisconsin anti-abortion group should have been allowed to run TV ads in the final two months before the 2004 election -- which weakens the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law -- guess who released a statement praising the ruling?
Romney, of course.
"Score one for free speech," Romney said. "Today the Supreme Court reaffirmed the First Amendment by rejecting a key feature of McCain-Feingold. The law trampled the basic right of the American people to participate in their democracy. It also purported to reduce the influence of money in politics, but we now know that influence is greater than ever. McCain-Feingold was a poorly-crafted bill. Today's decision restores, in part, to the American people a right critical to their freedom of political participation and expression."
This isn't the first time -- and it won't be the last -- Romney has tried to whack GOP rival McCain over his authorship of McCain-Feingold. "My fear is that McCain-Kennedy would do to immigration what McCain-Feingold has done to campaign finance and money in politics, and that's bad," Romney said at the second GOP debate. (McCain replied to the charge: "Well, I take and kept a consistent position on campaign finance reform... I have kept a consistent position on right to life. And I haven't changed my position on even-numbered years or have changed because of the different offices that I may be running for.")
hFrom NBC's Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier this morning, former EPA chief
Christie Whitman -- who testifies on Capitol Hill today --
has charged that
Giuliani blocked her efforts to force World Trade Center workers to wear respirators, and that city officials didn't want EPA workers wearing hazmat suits. On Saturday, the Giuliani campaign pushed back against Whitman's claims with a three-page "setting the record straight" research document, calling them "baseless" and "revisionist."
“Every effort was made by Mayor Giuliani and his staff to ensure the safety of all workers at Ground Zero in the aftermath of this unprecedented act of terror," said former deputy mayor Joe Lhota in the press release. "All workers at Ground Zero were instructed repeatedly to wear their respirators. This is well-documented and indisputable. No one from the City ever tried to block the Environmental Protection Agency. Any statement or suggestion to the contrary is simply baseless. Administrator Whitman never voiced any of these concerns at the time – not at the daily meetings which included federal, state and local officials, not at any press conferences. Doing so now is revisionist at best.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Survey and Policy Research Institute poll shows Clinton and Giuliani leading in California. On the Dem side, Clinton is at 37%, while Edwards and Obama are tied at 15% each. Perhaps most strikingly, among women, Clinton is at 45% -- versus 13% for Obama and 8% for Edwards.
On the GOP side, Giuliani is ahead at 25%, followed by Fred Thompson at 16%, McCain at 14%, and Romney at 5%.
The poll also finds that just 25% of Californians approve of President Bush's job.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** The Dash For Cash: With five days to go before the end of the 2nd quarter, here's what we think we know reading the tea leaves (and spin): Romney will be the top Republican again (no candidate is disputing this -- even Giuliani, who we thought would be neck-and-neck this quarter). McCain will lag, apparently, but should we wonder why his campaign is at ease talking about its money woes?
*** (Not So) Great Expectations: On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign continues to boost the idea that it'll be lucky to stay even with Obama. Come again? How did the Clintons pull this spin off? This is their muscle quarter. On paper, it’s Clinton who should be slightly favored to outraise Obama -- not vice versa. It would be a BIG deal if Obama outraises Clinton for a second quarter in a row (in primary money). By the way, don't miss the Richardson camp's bragging that it will outraise Edwards. You really raising $10 million-plus, governor?
*** Whitman vs. Giuliani: One-time Giuliani ideological soul mate, Christie Whitman, becomes a potential political problem as she testifies on the Hill about the Giuliani Administration’s environmental-hazard response at Ground Zero and at 30 Rock (for the anthrax attacks). These charges are especially significant because one would assume the former moderate governor of New Jersey -- who won the same year as Giuliani won in New York -- would be supporting Giuliani's White House bid. Given what’s here, that's, um, unlikely.
*** The Globe’s Back: We had been wondering where the usually tough-on-its-own Boston Globe had been with its coverage on Romney. Now we know -- in the last couple of days, it has run some significant “who is Mitt Romney?” stories -- including details of the near-fatal car crash he was in as a missionary in France, his Mexico Mormon relatives, and his Vietnam draft deferrals.
*** Rezko’s Return: Both Clinton and Obama are raising money today on Obama’s turf of Chicago. Yet the Chicago Sun-Times says that one of the hosts of Clinton’s fundraiser is a lawyer referenced in Rezko’s public-corruption indictment (although the paper makes it clear that Clinton has no direct link to Rezko). Also, check out that Obama has given back more Rezko-related money, including cash from this particular lawyer.
*** On The Trail: Dodd is in Iowa, where he participates in an Iowa professional firefighters state convention golf tournament and then holds a meet-and-greet; Edwards and his wife appear on The Tonight Show; McCain hits a fundraiser in Columbia, SC and then holds a press conference in Greenville; Romney and his supporters work the phones for an “America’s Calling” fundraising event, and Romney speaks to the press afterwards; and Tommy Thompson is in New Hampshire.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 1 day
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 47 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 69 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 117 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 134 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 145 days
Countdown to Iowa: 213 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 224 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 498 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 575 days
GIULIANI: In an interview with WNBC-TV, ex-EPA dir.
Christie Whitman says Giuliani "blocked her efforts to force World Trade Center workers to wear respirators." She also said city officials didn't want EPA workers wearing haz-mat suits because they "didn't want this image of a city falling apart." Whitman will be testifying on the Hill today about the ground zero air quality issue. Whitman also criticized Giuliani's handling of a suspected anthrax attack at NBC's Rockefeller Center headquarters weeks after 9/11. "There was concern by the city that EPA workers not be seen in the haz-mat suits," she said. "They didn't want this image of a city falling apart. I said, 'Well, that's not acceptable.'" Giuliani's former Deputy Mayor Joe Lhota rejected Whitman's claims. "As the incident commander, F.D.N.Y.’s response was exemplary. They coordinated, conducted and affected a multi-agency response in a timely, safe and efficient fashion," Lhota said.
As some predicted, the New York City tabs are not going to be able to get enough of Bloomberg v. Giuliani. The New York Post decided to survey senior city workers who worked with both mayors to get their take on which "Hizzoner" is ready to be POTUS. "Bloomberg's laid-back leadership style received glowing reviews, but most said they'd vote for him only if there were no other choice but Giuliani."
Per Newsday, Giuliani will stand by his longtime friend Alan Placa, a Catholic priest accused of molesting students, "despite a new call by an advocacy group for priest-abuse victims to fire the suspended priest from his consulting firm, a Giuliani aide said Friday. The GOP presidential front-runner was urged to ax Placa by David Clohessy, national director of the Survivors Network of Those Abused by Priests, after Salon Web-magazine ran a story Friday about the 5-year-old allegations of molesting students against Placa and his job at Giuliani Partners. But Giuliani will not fire Placa, who is also an attorney, from his consulting job, said Giuliani Partners spokeswoman Sunny Mindel. "The mayor believes Alan Placa has been unjustly accused," she said.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
The
AP says that Clinton, who was best known in the 1990s for her failed effort to revamp the nation’s health-care system, has now become cautious on the issue of health care. “While rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards have both laid out sweeping health care reform plans with estimated costs attached, Clinton has so far proposed only modest changes to the existing system while avoiding the vexing question of how to provide coverage for all.” More: “Aides say her plan will be rolled out through a series of speeches focusing on different aspects of health care reform, with the topic of universal coverage to be tackled last.”
When Clinton hits a fundraiser tonight in Chicago, one of the hosts is a lawyer referenced in the public-corruption indictment of Tony Rezko, the Chicago Sun-Times writes. “Clinton (D-N.Y.) has no direct connection to Rezko. But one of 20 ‘chairs’ for her Palmer House Hilton event is Myron Cherry, who is among a large circle of people to be enmeshed in two federal indictments Rezko is fighting. Most of those people, including Cherry, have not been charged with any crimes.”
The Sun-Times also notes that Clinton hasn't returned any money from Cherry, whose firm has handled several cases for Int'l Profit Associates, whose associates have given nearly $130,000 to Clinton. The company has been fighting an EEOC sexual-harassment lawsuit and is under investigation by the state of Illinois. Democrats like Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle (D) have returned money from the company.
And speaking of Rezko, Obama has given back another $3,500 in Rezko-connected money, including money from Cherry.
CONTINUED >>
Newsweek does its "Can-Bloomberg-Be-Serious story and notes something that we're guessing eventual Bloomberg foes will highlight. "Bloomberg demands loyalty. Employees who leave are seldom, if ever, welcomed back. At Bloomberg News, security is strict. All employees must wear identity badges at all times; a fingerprint identification is required to log on to computers. Cameras survey the newsroom, in part to make sure no one is leaking sensitive financial data. To encourage communication and fraternity, free snacks are available in an office food court. To some Bloomberg staffers, it all seems a bit Orwellian, though they say that ethics standards are high and that hard work is fairly rewarded."
Clinton and Fred Thompson lead in Nevada, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. Clinton has a substantial double-digit lead over Obama (39%-17%), while Thompson, who has not even declared yet for the presidential race, leads Mitt Romney (25%-20%, a statistical tie). Rounding out the Democratic field, Edwards is five points behind Obama, and Richardson registers five points behind Edwards. On the GOP side, Giuliani comes in with 17%, McCain with 8%, Huckabee with 3%. Undecideds made up 21% of the vote on the Democratic side and 23% on the Republican side.
With less than a week to go before the June 30 fundraising deadline, speculation is running wild in the press. Politico has Romney potentially raising at least $14 million this quarter, noting that the Romney camp is pointing to the first two quarters of George W. Bush in '99 as the "gold standard." Bush raised $37 million by the end of June 30 in '99. Romney raised $23 million. Meanwhile, "McCain is expected to finish last again among the top three declared candidates, resurrecting fresh doubts about what has happened to the former front-runner."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Daily News: “A revived immigration reform bill that could legalize some 12 million undocumented immigrants faces a crucial vote as soon as tomorrow - and its prospects are far from certain. ‘It's going to be an interesting week,’ said White House spokesman Scott Stanzel. President Bush appealed to senators in his Saturday radio address to ‘summon the courage’ to move the bill forward. The White House worked with senators on both sides of the aisle to resurrect the measure after it stalled early this month.” On Tuesday, Bush will participate in a briefing on the immigration bill.
Bloomberg's Al Hunt writes on the never-ending battle over immigration reform and concludes: "Whatever the short-term effects, however, rejecting the immigration overhaul would be a long-term disaster for Republicans. It would deny Bush any domestic legacy, making him the most-failed second-term president in modern American politics. History tells us that would drag down his party in subsequent elections."
This is a potential blockbuster lead by the
Los Angeles Times: "The Bush administration has begun exploring ways of offering Congress a compromise deal on Iraq policy to avert bruising battles in coming months, U.S. officials said. With public support of the war dropping, President Bush has authorized an internal policy review to find a plan that could satisfy opponents without sacrificing his top goals, the officials said. The president and senior officials ‘realize they can't keep fighting this over and over,’ said one administration official, who along with others declined to be identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly or because decisions were pending. The Republican White House has not opened formal negotiations with the Democratic-controlled Congress. But some senior administration officials — including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and U.N. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad — have been quietly talking with lawmakers about how to adjust policy in the months ahead. Among other ideas, they have discussed whether the United States should advocate a sharply decentralized Iraq, a notion that has seen a resurgence on Capitol Hill."
The Washington Post runs Part Two of its four-part look at Dick Cheney’s vice presidency. Today’s piece examines Cheney’s role in crafting the Administration interrogation policies. “The vice president's office played a central role in shattering limits on coercion in U.S. custody, commissioning and defending legal opinions that the Bush administration has since portrayed as the initiatives, months later, of lower-ranking officials."
Here’s Part One.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Obama strayed from the stump speech today, unveiling a “five-step” plan to end what he called the emergence of a "second Gilded Age in America" in a Manchester, N.H. speech centered on government reform.His plan: A permanent “doorstop” on lobbyists; End no-bid contracts; Ban lobbyist gifts; Pick an administration not based on partisan politics; Return government to the people.
Obama set up the plan by blasting the Bush Administration for what he called Industrial Revolution-era-like big business and corruption and compared himself to Teddy Roosevelt. Speaking to an audience in the cafeteria at New Hampshire's Community Technology College, Obama received polite applause -- a reaction quite different from the usual loud cheers at his rallies and town hall meetings.
"We need a president who sees government not as a tool to enrich well-connected friends and high-priced lobbyists, but as the defender of fairness and opportunity for every American," Obama said. "That's what this country has always been about, and that's the kind of President I intend to be." CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Chuck Todd
***UPDATE***Activists are calling for Giuliani to take Alan Placa off the payroll. Giuliani says he'll do no such thing and believes his long-time friend and priest has been "unjustly accused" of molesting three boys and covering up the molestations of about 60 others.
''There's ample evidence showing that Placa consistently protected predators, shrewdly deceived victims, and covered up horrific clergy sex crimes,'' said David Clohessy, national director of the Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests, in a statement, the AP reported.
Giuliani Partners spokeswoman Sunny Mindel told the AP Giuliani is standing by his childhood friend.
''The former mayor believes that Alan Placa has been unjustly accused,'' she said.
*******Has Giuliani's personal loyalty gotten him another skeleton for the press to go chasing after? Salon details Giuliani keeping a priest -- who is a life-long friend -- on the payroll of his consulting firm despite being accused of covering up more than 60 incidents of molestation and being involved in some cases.
Monsignor Alan Placa was suspended by his diocese and that “a 2003 Suffolk County, N.Y., grand jury report that accuses Placa of sexually abusing children, as well as helping cover up the sexual abuse of children by other priests,” Salon writes.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The
AP is out with their own version of the Edwards-using-his-poverty-center-for-political-gain story. Did the AP catch up to the
NYTimes reporting this fast or was this simply an example of two different news organizations persuing the same story at the same time. The two stories read quite differently hinting that both news organizations were working on this story at the same time. Neither one of them is a positive for Edwards and, frankly, the AP hit might be worse since it will likely to get picked up in a slew of smaller papers tomorrow. In fact the AP story hints at a potential FEC investigation.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The Clinton campaign announced today the endorsement of some key Arkansas Democrats in anticipation of her attendance at the state party's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner tomorrow night. The most noteworthy is Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor, who is up for re-election in 2008 and would potentially share the ballot with Clinton should she become the Democratic nominee.
While some folks might not think it's a big deal that Clinton got the support of an Arkansas Democrat, realize that not every Arkansas Democrat believes Clinton will be an asset leading the ticket in the state. A few have expressed that nervousness to me privately. So Pryor doing this so early is something the Clinton folks can tout to other Southern and border state Democrats who are somehow nervous about Clinton's electability. Arkansas Democratic governor, Mike Beebe, has not endorsed any candidate.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Per the Atlantic's Ambinder, Romney's director of operations, Jay Garrity, has taken leave from the campaign. This comes a day after the New Hampshire Attorney General's office opened up an investigation of Garrity's involvement into a "traffic stop" of a New York Times reporter and another investigation into an alleged phone call made by Garrity identifying himself on a message machine as "Trooper Garrity" of the Massachusetts state police.
From NBC's Pete Williams
The governor of Wyoming has appointed a Casper doctor, John Barrasso [buh-RASS-oh], to serve as US senator until the 2008 election. He was appointed this morning to take the seat vacated by the death earlier this month of Craig Thomas. Under state law, Governor Dave Freudenthal picked Barrasso from among three Republicans chosen by the state party central committee.
Barrasso, 54, is an orthopedic surgeon, originally from Pennsylvania. He's midway through his second term in the state senate, first elected in 2002. He served the state party in a variety of capacities, including as its treasurer.
He's a 1974 graduate of Georgetown University, and he earned his MD at Georgetown in 1978. Shortly after graduation, he moved to Wyoming and established his medical practice there.
He's divorced and has two children, a son in college and a daughter who just graduated from high school.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Hip hop and club beats with
Obama laying out his healthcare plan and calling for troops to come home. Is that what you want to ring across the office when you forget to turn your phone on vibrate? The Obama campaign sure hopes so. Check out the new, we’re not kidding,
Obama campaign ring tones.
There’s “Letter to Obama” with lyrics, “Go, Go, Go – Obama, Obama.” It stops just short of telling him it’s his birthday.
There’s “2004 DNC Speech Hip Hop,” “On Healthcare,” the clubby “End the War,” and “2002 Speech Remix” -- mixed between beats and Casio keyboard cymbals is Obama saying, “What I do oppose -- is a dumb war.”
And there’s a little something for everyone with “2004 DNC Speech Alternative” and “2004 DNC Speech Rock.”
And per Jon Stewart, check out Obama’s, er, Barack-in,’ campaign bus.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Next week,
Fred Thompson hits the road with stops in Tennessee, South Carolina and New Hampshire. The South Carolina and New Hampshire visits are sponsored by the GOP state parties. But advisors say nothing is on Thompson's calendar beyond next week. Aides say Thompson will be on the trail for two and a half days and "he'll get out a bit." They acknowledge he hasn’t been to the two early primary states much because "until now he hasn't had to."
His objective is to introduce himself to voters, meet the grassroots types and "get the message out." As of this writing, there are no Fred fund-raisers on this round.
Thompson is expected to deliver his stump speech which is still undergoing "tweaks." The message themes include: government competency, cutting taxes, "doing the right thing in Iraq" and "looking at the world in a different way." Advisors say the speech was written by Thompson since he has no official speechwriters in the fold. He was given some "structure" help by advisors who do have some writing background.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Is He Real Or Is He Memorex? A day after making his earmark requests public, Obama this morning gives a speech on government reform in Manchester, NH -- the same place where Clinton gave her speech on the topic back in April. Since filing his paperwork to form an exploratory committee, Obama has presented himself as a different kind of politician who practices a different kind of politics. But will this be voters’ dominant image of Obama come January 2008? Or will it be one shaped more by (Clinton campaign?) reminders of Rezko, intercepted oppo documents, and a new 527 group (see below)? The answer for Obama, even as he trails Clinton in the national polls, could end up deciding his fate in the early nominating contests.
*** Start Spreading The News: So Edwards goes to New York to give a speech on the “Two Americas” and his vision for “One America,” and what does he get in return? A front-page New York Times story on how the anti-poverty, non-profit organization he created after 2004 mainly benefited himself and his political profile. The piece is not very helpful to Edwards in that he's desperately trying to stay competitive on the fundraising front with Clinton and Obama. And the Times, more than any other publication, has major reach in the Dem donor world. By the way, just noticing, but by our count it’s the second time in the last two weeks the Times has run a front-page investigation into one of Clinton’s rivals.
*** Romney 911: Just how bizarre is this story that Romney’s staff may have made an illegal traffic stop of New York Times reporter Mark Leibovich? It gets another day of play in the news. And apparently there are not one -- but TWO investigations (one related, one unrelated) -- into the security staffer who pulled over Leibovich.
*** Non-Executive Privilege: So, apparently, Cheney is not that interested in fixing his own poll ratings. The news that his office is not an entity within the executive branch seems to have collectively outraged the media. This new revelation is likely to become fodder for Democrats to hit the Administration again on secrecy.
*** On The Trail: Clinton speaks at the National Conference of US Mayors in Los Angeles; Huckabee has a slew of events in South Carolina; Richardson makes three stops in Iowa; and Romney speaks to the Officers Convention of the Montana Republican Party before heading to Idaho. Also the wives are mobilized… Michelle Obama makes two stops in Iowa; Barbara Richardson attends a memorial service for the fallen firefighters in South Carolina; and Elizabeth Kucinich moderates a panel at Hiram College in Ohio.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 4 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 50 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 72 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 120 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 137 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 148 days
Countdown to Iowa: 216 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 227 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 501 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 578 days
CLINTON:
As predicted, columnists are using the Sopranos spoof to do some
Clinton analysis. Here's Peggy Noonan: "So, the Sopranos spoof wasn't bringing up That Which Must Not Be Said. It was saying it and getting rid of it. (A piquant aspect: The bad guy in the video who eyeballs Mrs. Clinton really ‘is’ a mobster, the actor who played Johnny Sack in ‘The Sopranos.’ The Clintons' enemies are the real gangsters!)”Apparently, Stevie Van Zandt, a.k.a. Silvio,
turned down the Johnny Sacks part in the Sopranos spoof because he’s supporting Obama. Van Zandt amazingly is now more known for his role in the Sopranos than as a member of Bruce Springsteen's band. What a country!
Bill is taking a hands-off approach, he says. “‘I don't expect to do a lot of this this year and I don't think it's helpful,’ the former President said, referring to an upcoming campaign trip in Iowa in which he will accompany her. ‘I want people to get to know Hillary.’”
DODD: Like a bridge over troubled campaigns... Paul Simon is going to campaign with Chris Dodd for two days in July in Iowa.
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK:Brownback said in Iowa that if he’s elected president he will appoint a Supreme Court justice who will overturn Roe v. Wade. “We can get it done," Brownback said. "We're one justice away.”
GIULIANI:
Here's an "ouch" from
Time's Von Drehle, who writes: "How many alleged criminals can a law-and-order candidate be associated with before it starts to hurt?" That's the question facing Giuliani following the drug charges brought up against his ex-South Carolina campaign chair.
Bloomberg -- again, the news organization, not the potential candidate -- examines Giuliani's attempts to court Wall Street and notes how Giuliani "rarely mentions" his early corporate crime-fighting days that targeted Wall Street types. “‘One of the reasons he doesn't call attention to the past is that he's been in a political campaign mode for many years now, and he has drawn support from among hedge funds and investment-banking firms, and some of the very places he used to investigate,' said Chuck Gabriel, a longtime political strategist for institutional investors.”
CONTINUED >>
Here's something that's pretty hard for many to believe. Ralph Nader says he doesn't WANT to run for president, but may HAVE to. Nader said he would not do it "if Jim Hightower, the former agriculture commissioner of Texas and radio personality, or others on a list of relatively obscure people would run instead. Nader said he felt compelled to run because he wanted to establish ballot access for ‘all kinds of third-party candidates.’ And he said he wanted to train ‘the next generation’ of progressive activists.
The New York Daily News says that Bloomberg “is expected to survey the field after the mass of primaries on Feb. 5, dubbed ‘Tsunami Tuesday.’” More: “‘When you're a poker player and someone sits down at the table with that much cash, he has to be regarded as a serious player,’ said pollster Andrew Smith of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center.”
The first major Dem we could find to take a shot at Bloomberg (every other Dem has sort of praised him for leaving the GOP) is Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. “‘Mr. Bloomberg, whom I don’t know real well — I’ve met him a few times — kind of reminds me of the little rich kid that if he can’t have it his way he’s going to take his little balls and go home,’ Harkin said in a conference call with Iowa media.”
NBC’s Ken Strickland says it should come as no surprise to anyone that the Senate is in a procedural morass, with talk that it will be working this weekend to try to finish up some big legislation before the July 4th recess (which is the week of July 2nd.) There was an expectation that the immigration bill would be brought back to the floor this week, but obviously that's not happening.
Because Senate rules allow for opponents of legislation to jam up the process, as is the case here, timing is hard to nail down. That said, here's the collective best guidance we have: The immigration bill won't come back on the floor until next week, Monday or Tuesday. With controversial amendments still in play, it's hard to predict what the final bill will look like OR if the final immigration bill will even pass.
The
Boston Globe's Lehigh attempts to print a virtual Iraq debate between John McCain and Joe Biden. He does not declare a winner, but simply highlights the two candidates who have the most detailed stances on the issue.
Mike Viqueira reports that the vice president’s office claims that as far as document security guidelines set forth by law are concerned, it’s not an "entity within the executive branch." So says Rep. Henry Waxman (D), who in the course of an investigation into government record keeping has found that Cheney's office has stiffed the National Archives when it comes around to inspect record-keeping procedures.
The Los Angeles Times: "For the last four years, Vice President Dick Cheney has made the controversial claim that his office is not fully part of the Bush administration in order to exempt it from a presidential order regulating federal agencies' handling of classified national security information, officials said Thursday… Some legal scholars and government secrecy experts noted the irony in Cheney's stance that his office is not fully part of the executive branch, given his claims of executive privilege when refusing to provide information requested by Congress."
The New York Times adds that when the National Archives unit that monitors classification in the executive branch objected [to Cheney’s resistance of oversight], the vice president’s office suggested abolishing the oversight unit, according to documents released yesterday by” Waxman.
From NBC's Mark Murray
This morning,
Edwards adviser Joe Trippi sent out this email fundraising solicitation: "This is it -- with 10 days left in the second quarter, we're about two-thirds of the way towards our goal of raising $9 million -- double what we raised at this time in the 2004 race."Our immediate reaction: $9 million? With
Clinton and
Obama once again poised to raise well over $20 million for the quarter, will a $9 million keep Edwards within striking distance of the two other Democratic front-runners? (Edwards raised more than $14 million in the first fundraising quarter.)
An Edwards campaign source tells First Read that the more important goal in that Trippi email is the $40 million the campaign hopes to raise before the Iowa caucuses, more than double what Edwards raised before the 2004 caucuses. If the campaign raises that $40 amount, it believes it will have more than enough to compete in the first four nominating contests (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina). "We're not running the types of campaigns that Barack and Hillary are running," the source says. "They are celebrities."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Last week, our NBC/WSJ poll showed President Bush at his lowest approval rating since taking office -- 29 percent. It just got lower. A Newsweek poll out today shows that just 26 percent of all Americans – only about one in four -- approves of the job Bush is doing; 65 percent disapprove, including a third of all Republicans. The margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 4 percent
The only president to have ever gotten a lower approval rating was Richard Nixon, who fell to 23 percent in January 1974 -- seven months before he resigned over Watergate. In 1979, Jimmy Carter’s approval rating hit 28 percent.
And it’s not just Iraq that’s weighing Bush down. Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of his handling of several domestic issues and half even disapprove of his handling of terrorism.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
In a press conference on the Clinton Foundation's expanded role in Latin American economic development,
Bill Clinton commented on his part in his wife’s “Sopranos” spoof video earlier today, saying he had no part in the conception of the idea. “I had a lot of fun doing it, but I didn’t have anything to do with thinking it up,” he said, adding, “I just got my lines and played my part, which is kind of what I do in politics these days.”
Clinton went on to speak about the presidential campaign, saying that he’s enjoyed the time he’s spent on the campaign trail with Hillary, but that he doesn’t foresee playing a big role this year. “I want people to get to know Hillary,” he said.
He was also asked about the prospect of a presidential run by Mike Bloomberg. Although he refused to comment on a potential independent run by the New York mayor, he did -- as his wife did yesterday -- applaud Bloomberg for leaving the Republican party, saying it showed “good judgment on his part." But he added, “I already got a candidate in that race.”
From NBC's Carly Zakin
We've counted up the earmark requests on Obama's Web site, and they add up to 113 requests totaling $494,266,475.
***Update*** Well, math has never actually been our strong suit -- especially when adding with a computer calculator. And after hearing back from Obama's Senate office (and crunching our numbers again) we were a bit off. Obama's total earmark requests (when teamed up with other senators) is $399,766,475. The price tag for his solo earmark requests is $321,766,475.
From NBC's Mark Murray
On the eve of his speech on good government in New Hampshire,
Obama today has put up a list on his
Senate Web site of all the proposed earmarks (more than a hundred by our count) he has requested for this year's appropriations as a way to inject more transparency in government. As the
Chicago Tribune wrote earlier this morning, Obama is the first presidential candidate to do this.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Obama's campaign is now challenging the other presidential candidates to also list their earmarks. "As a matter of transparency and good government, Obama thinks it's important that voters know who their candidates are, what their sources of income are, and whether they have any potential conflicts," spokesman Bill Burton says. "We would hope that other candidates follow suit in disclosing their earmarks as well."
This isn't the first time that earmark challenges have come up in the presidential contest. Last week, McCain held a press conference to lambaste Hillary Clinton for larding a defense appropriations bill with pork. "We can't do this earmarking and pork-barreling if we ever are going to be careful and serious stewards of the taxpayers' dollars," McCain said.
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
On the campaign trail,
John McCain can often end up becoming a punching bag for questioners unloading frustrations about his two most unpopular stances -- on immigration and Iraq. On those issues, the embattled senator is often forced to demure, to tweak, or to soften the edge that won him a maverick image during his rollicking 2000 run. But when questioners give him a little bit of flexibility on non-lightning-rod issues, the self-described "Happy Warrior" comes out swinging.
A complaint about the inside-the-Beltway status quo? "I was not elected Miss Congeniality in the United States Senate
again this year," McCain bemoans sarcastically.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Tim Russert
In the same 48-hour period Michael Bloomberg was trying to tamp down presidential speculation, he was reaching out to well-known political figures, including Nancy Reagan. On Tuesday, Bloomberg had lunch with Reagan at the Bel Air Hotel while he was in California. Mrs. Reagan has already been fairly active in the presidential game this year. She was the host of the first GOP presidential debate, held in early May.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Some Heart Bloomberg, Others Will Hate Him: The Bloomberg boomlet is in full swing today. Editorial writers are predisposed to love anyone or anything that represents the word "bipartisanship." So the op-ed pages are full of praise for the mayor many of these editorial writers don't even know simply because he's uttered that magic word "bipartisanship." The fallout for Giuliani and Clinton is covered in more detail today. In particularly, the Giuliani-Bloomberg rivalry is one that is already tabloid fodder. But Clinton won't escape from this New York story either. Bloomberg and Clinton share many of the same local supporters who appear to be divided already. Check out Ed Koch's comments.
*** Rise Of The Independents?
Another independent -- Joe Lieberman, whom Bloomberg campaigned for last year -- holds a fundraiser in DC tonight for moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R), who likely will face a tough re-election fight next year. To poke their nemesis Lieberman in the eye, liberal MoveOn yesterday issued a press release stating that its members had raised $350,000 for likely Collins opponent Tom Allen (D), freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy, and MoveOn’s Iraq campaign. With Bloomberg’s possible presidential candidacy, was Lieberman’s win as an independent last year a sign of things to come? Or, if Collins loses and Bloomberg doesn’t run (or does and loses), will he find himself even more isolated come November 5, 2008?
*** Party Blood Thicker Than Water:
Speaking of 2008 Senate races, President Bush heads to Alabama today to raise money for one of the biggest critics of the Senate immigration bill he supports: GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions. One senator quoted Bush as saying to Sessions when he traveled up to Capitol Hill to revive the immigration bill, "Don't worry, I'll still go to your fundraiser. We disagree about this but we are friends." Yet is Bush’s fundraiser for Session a sign that he isn’t interested in twisting GOP arms too much to get the legislation to his desk? Before the fundraiser, Bush makes remarks on energy in Alabama.
*** Another Mormon Story: The Boston Globe today writes Romney’s political opponents are beginning to become more vocal about his religion. Is it time for that JFK-esque speech? The Globe notes three of Romney's foes (McCain, Brownback, and Giuliani) now have had supporters engage in anti-Mormon behavior.
*** Slick Hillary? How good is Clinton getting at avoiding controversial stances? So good that AP's Ron Fournier -- who has covered the Clintons longer than any national reporter in the country -- is dubbing her "Slick Hillary." Fournier uses examples from her remarks in DC this week, especially at the AFSCME forum, where he notes she left wiggle room on a number of issues.
*** On The Trail: Brownback hits eight more towns in Iowa; Clinton will be in DC and Detroit; Edwards supports Smithfield, NC workers' efforts to organize, and then speaks on middle-class debt at Cooper Union in New York City; Gilmore raises money in Atlanta; Giuliani speaks to supporters in Florida; Huckabee makes fundraising calls in Arkansas; Obama is in DC; and Richardson participates in an AFL-CIO convention town hall meeting in Phoenix and then raises money there.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 5 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 51 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 73 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 121 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 138 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 149 days
Countdown to Iowa: 217 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 228 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 502 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 579 days
The
New York Times says the potential Bloomberg '08 candidacy has been two years in the planning. "They collected technical data on the requirements to put Mr. Bloomberg on the ballot in 50 states either as a third party or an independent candidate. Mr. Bloomberg went to Washington for a round of meetings with opinion leaders and traveled the country giving political speeches, including two this week in California." Here's another key graph: "Even if Mr. Bloomberg in the end does not run, he is now assured of a platform to speak out on national issues and the country’s political climate, a stage that would fortify him as he enters what is normally the lame-duck portion of his term."
The Times also wonders whether Bloomberg can both run for president and run Gotham. "But if the mayor’s tentative tiptoeing into a national campaign accelerates into a marathon, inevitably the question of whether he can run for president and effectively manage the city simultaneously will arise. Can he avoid diminishing the legacy he is still constructing because he will be distracted by a national campaign?"
The Washington Post on Bloomberg’s press conference yesterday: “What he did not do is violate Rule No. 1 for the professional non-candidate which is never, under any circumstances, answer the question ‘Are you running for president?’… To answer the question would be to reveal the secret behind the magic trick -- the ‘will-he-or-won't-he?’ that captivates the public, frustrates the media and provides the practitioner national attention without any of the fuss of actually being a candidate.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
No national reporter may know the Clintons better than the
AP's Ron Fournier, and that's why his "Slick Hillary" lead today has to hurt the folks in Rosslyn. Fournier notes that her answers this week in front of AFSCME, where she ducked answering many questions were reminiscent of her husband, "Slick Willy." "Former President Clinton earned the nickname ‘Slick Willy’ for his mastery in the political arts of ducking and dodging. He had a knack for convincing people on both sides of an issue that he agreed with them. His wife may not be as smooth, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is doing a passable impression of the ever-parsing former president."
The Washington Post's Lois Romano profiles the women who run Hillaryland. "Once seen as a tight little sorority, today the group -- happily self-described as ‘Hillaryland’-- is at the center of a front-running presidential campaign. Never have so many women operated at such a high level in one campaign, working with a discipline and a loyalty and a legendary secrecy rarely seen at this level of American politics. Older and tougher, they have formed a closely knit Praetorian Guard around Clinton that plots strategy, develops message and clamps down on leaks. But their extraordinary protectiveness also contributes to an ongoing perception of insularity around the candidate and the campaign."
Another Washington Post piece also observes that she wasn’t booed as much at the “Take Back America” confab as she was a year ago. "Whatever her motives, Clinton's moves on the war have improved her political prospects in Iowa and New Hampshire. As she has emphatically called for troops to be withdrawn, a stance Edwards had adopted earlier, he has had to make more subtle points to show the distinctions between their records. And on a recent trip to Iowa, only one voter asked Clinton about her position on the war. Of course, resistance to her remains."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The most intriguing subplot of this week's Bloomberg boomlet is the spotlight that's been put on the
rivalry between Giuliani and Bloomberg. For some Giuliani partisans, this is the ultimate betrayal. After all, it was Giuliani's post-9/11 popularity that got Bloomberg elected in '01. He was down double digits to the leading Dems for mayor on Sept. 10th. The
New York Daily News’ cover: “It’s gonna get ugly!” with photos of Bloomberg and Giuliani looking both annoyed and poised for a fight.
The
New York Times went through the National Archives and found some letters written by Giuliani and note a recurring theme in those letters: "loyalty."
In his fourth campaign stop in Iowa, Giuliani pledged to cut federal spending and federal jobs by half in eight to 10 years. The Rocky Mountain News adds, "Tough questions drowned out part of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's message during a pop-in visit here on Wednesday. The man some call ‘America's Mayor’ made a rare campaign stop at a Des Moines hotel so he could tout his ‘commitment’ to being a fiscal conservative. But after a quick speech, he got sidetracked at a news conference defending his decision to quit the Iraq Study Group." CONTINUED >>
Bloomberg -- the news outlet, not the potential presidential candidate -- has this story: “The new defense secretary arrived at a moment of crisis with the war at a stalemate, public support tumbling and the president groping for a new strategy. Within a few months, he had replaced the top generals, imposed his will on those remaining and persuaded the president that the only exit from the bloody conflict was disengagement. Robert Gates in 2007? No, Clark Clifford in 1968.”
More: “Just as Clifford convinced President Lyndon Johnson of the need to change course at the height of the Vietnam War, some officials and military and foreign-policy experts say, Defense Secretary Gates may be gearing up to persuade President George W. Bush George W. Bush to move toward a drawdown in Iraq.”
In remarks prepared for a congressional hearing before a House Judiciary subcommittee today, outgoing Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty says when he testified earlier about the firings of US attorneys, he did so "truthfully, providing the facts as I knew them at the time," NBC’s Pete Williams reports. He told the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier this year that he was not aware of any but a very token role played by the White House in the firings. It subsequently became clear that the White House was much more involved.
"We have learned that my knowledge at the time ... was in some respects incomplete," McNulty says in his prepared testimony. But he says he doesn't think anyone in the Justice Department set out to purposely mislead him. McNulty said last month that he intends to step down later this summer.
The Washington Post reminds us that former DOJ aide Monica Goodling “accused McNulty of providing inaccurate testimony to Congress and of seeking to obscure the White House's role in carrying them out. Gonzales, after first playing down his role, also named McNulty as the Justice aide most responsible for the dismissals.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At a press conference in Iowa, Giuliani answered questions on his decision to sit on the Iraq Study Group Commission, his campaign's decision to pull out of the Ames straw poll, his (now former) SC campaign chairman being indicted on cocaine trafficking charges and competing with Clinton for the mafia vote (sort of).
Iraq Study Group Commission "a mistake"
Giuliani said he made a mistake by ever joining the Iraq Study Group Commission. "It was a mistake," Giuliani said, "because I had an active ... political career that could interfere with the way in which the recommendations of the commission would be viewed. Suppose the report came out, and I was on the commission, then I did a dissenting opinion or people thought was skewed in some way to help me. It just made no sense. It was not the right thing to do."
He also said, "The main reason for it was, it didn't seem I would really be able to keep the thing focused on a bipartisan non-political resolution."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Bush today vetoed the stem-cell research bill and said in a news conference afterward:
"I made it clear to Congress and to the American people that I will not allow our nation to cross this moral line. Last year, Congress passed a similar bill -- I kept my promise by vetoing it. And today I'm keeping my word again: I am vetoing the bill that Congress has sent."
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Lauren Appelbaum, and Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani and Tony Snow reacted today to Bloomberg’s GOP defection. Giuliani was deferential. Snow, on behalf of the White House was, well, a bit more snarky.
“I am disappointed he left the Republican Party,” Giuliani said.
The White House has largely stayed away from the topic, but Snow offered this at the on-camera briefing: “Let me put it this way,” Snow said, “he ran as a Republican, I believe he took Republican money."
On Bloomberg’s potential White House bid, Giuliani was asked if he feels betrayed by his “friend.” (We didn’t hear “no.”)
“I worked very hard to get Mike elected for my reasons,” Giuliani said, “and my reasons were to preserve the things I thought were so important about the turnaround of new York City…. I have no objection to him. Everybody has to make his own decisions about this. Because I endorse somebody, they don't owe anything to me, I don't owe anything to them."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Politico and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg conducted a straw poll among the liberal activists attending the Campaign for America's Future "Take Back America" conference.
Obama came out on top with 29% of the vote, followed by
Edwards at 26%, and
Clinton at 17%.
Richardson was fourth with 9%, and
Al Gore got 8% as a write-in candidate (his name wasn't listed on the ballot).
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At his press conference today, reporters asked
Bloomberg why he changed his party affiliation if he has no intention of running for president. He replied that by being an independent, he has more flexibility in pushing his positions on issues like gun control on city streets. He called for people to value issues, not party politics. "My perception is that government at all levels is becoming more partisan rather than less," Bloomberg said.
At the 3-1-1 Call Center in Manhattan, numerous crews arrived to cover what was billed as an "announcement." Bloomberg happily told the crowd that 3-1-1 logged its 50-millionth call earlier this morning.
Reporters attempted to push Bloomberg to comment on a race between himself and other presidential candidates by asking him if 3-1-1 should be implemented on the national level, and if he could implement it better nationally than Hillary Clinton could. Bloomberg dodged the trap, stating that he personally had no intention of implementing 3-1-1 on a national level and that Sen. Clinton is "a very good Senator" who "deals at a different level than fixing pot holes."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
…but I might change my mind.
Some have interpreted Michael Bloomberg’s comments at a speech today as him signaling that he is not running for president. But keep these two things in mind:
1. He didn't give a Sherman-esque statement ruling out a potetential White House bid. (In the 1880s, William Tecumseh Sherman famously said, "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve.")
Bloomberg today said: "I have said that my intention is to be mayor for the next 925 days and probably about 10 hours, whatever's left, 11 hours, and that is my intention." Saying it's his INTENTION gives him lots of wiggle room.
Even saying as he did "I'm not running for president, and I'm going to be mayor for the next 925 days" doesn't completely rule out a run.
2. People can change their minds. Just look at Barack Obama. Here's what he said on “Meet the Press” in November 2004:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Although she's more popular with the Left than the comparatively hawkish Senator Clinton, Speaker
Nancy Pelosi was also heckled at the "Take Back America" conference in DC this morning, where Clinton also faced boos from some anti-war protestors. As she was listing her legislative priorities, an audience member interrupted, "And bring the troops home!" She responded to the resulting crescendo of hisses from the crowd with a smile. "I always say that the best preparation for combat is combat," she said, "So go for it!"
The static from the anti-war crowd was previewed by interruptions during remarks by Rep.
Jack Murtha, who introduced the Speaker. Murtha even briefly argued from the dais with a protestor below. An audience member objected to the congressman's assertion that Pelosi has shepherded an anti-war agenda in the House, shouting, "No, she hasn't!" Eyes rolling, Murtha responded. "Yes, she has."
Closing her remarks, Pelosi acknowledged the brewing civil war within the Democratic Party but appealed for unity. "We have the will of the American people to end this war... Instead of fighting us, which is your right to do, let's all work together to convince the American people that this is possible. End the war and bring the troops home."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
If you notice in the
new Romney ad -- where he touts himself a fiscal conservative who will “get taxes down” -- he not so inconspicuously speaks in front of logos for the Club for Growth. Club for Growth is a conservative group, which aggressively pushes its agenda. It has played a prominent role in helping elect fiscal conservatives and it hasn't been shy about attacking -- and many would argue hurt -- Republicans with whom they don’t wholly agree.
The group is well aware of Romney using their background. In fact, the club is happy about it, but insists it has not endorsed any presidential candidate yet.
“We’re enjoying it,” said Nachama Soloveichik, a club spokeswoman. “I think it speaks to our credibility on fiscal issues…. We’re proud of what we do. We agree there should be lower taxes. We agree that we play an important role in economic conservatism.”
The Club for Growth has not put out what they call a “white paper” -- an evaluation of the candidates’ fiscal conservative credentials -- on Romney yet. And this nod to the group by the former Massachusetts governor, Soloveichik said, won't ultimately affect whether or not the club decides to endorse him.
“It doesn’t butter us up," she said. "It’s nice, but it’s not going to change our white paper or our analysis of him.”
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A small group of House Republicans will head down to the White House today and present the president with a list of signatures that they say guarantees that his vetoes on spending bills cannot be overridden, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. The White House has threatened a veto of appropriations that exceed the president's requests. Already, the House has passed a bill funding Homeland Security that is $2.1 billion over the Administration's figure. Outgoing OMB chief Rob Portman has said that the president will veto the measure.
Congressional Republicans are becoming born-again fiscal conservatives these days, after “bridges to nowhere” and rising levels of spending left some their core supporters disillusioned over the past several years. The idea is to rediscover their roots and rally around the cause of earmark reform and holding the line on spending and taxes.
Today, Viq says, they will hand the president a petition -- circulated by conservatives and signed by 147 House members -- that pledges to vote against any override attempts that Democrats put forward. That number represents one-third of the House, just enough to ensure that any override would fail. Democrats are in the process of deciding on a strategy to deal with the veto threats.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** A Boon For The Democrats? New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg capped off a VERY busy political day yesterday by filing paperwork changing his voting status from Republican to unaffiliated. Why now? Bloomberg's move now means every national poll will begin including him in three-way match-ups, and that in and of itself forces the Beltway chattering class to begin assessing the "who does he hurt" between now and the end of the primary season. And it gives him an opportunity to begin actually exploring a run by traveling to states that don't touch oceans. Looking at voting patterns and the strength of both parties' bases, a true three-way race may help the Democrats more than the Republicans. Why? It’s simple -- the South. The irony of a Bloomberg candidacy is that it could make the Democrats more competitive in the South because their 35% base vote in the South is made up of die-hard Democrats.
*** Short-Term Trouble for Rudy?
But that's for the long term. In the short term, the person hurt the most right now by a potential Bloomberg bid may be the guy most responsible for getting him elected mayor in the first place: Giuliani. Bloomberg's claims of successes in managing New York City are subtle jabs at Giuliani's two terms as mayor. Also, Bloomberg's interest means there will be more comparisons to Giuliani's days as mayor before 9/11, and that gets Giuliani off message a bit.
*** Un-Raveneling: Speaking of Rudy, we wondered if he was going to have a bad day yesterday after that Newsday piece (about his non-attendance on the Iraq Study Group) and the news of Bernie Kerik’s disappointment about the distance between him and Giuliani (“I understand it, but inside it's killing me”). But we had no idea that in one day his campaign would lose top Iowa adviser Jim Nussle, who’s heading over to OMB, and also South Carolina state chairman Thomas Ravenel, who was indicted for cocaine distribution. The good news for the campaign: It all happened in just one day.
*** More Boos?
Already this morning, Clinton took her turn addressing the liberal “Take Back America” conference. At last year's conference, she received boos for her views on Iraq -- and she got them again this morning. NBC’s Carrie Dann reports that Clinton entered and exited the stage with applause. But when she launched into her Iraq bit, she was booed. She plugged the fact that she voted against the supplemental, but her line about how the troops have "done what they went to do" prompted a mix of boos and those trying to drown them out.
*** Other Speakers: As of this writing, Kucinich was set to follow Clinton at the “Take Back” confab. Also speaking today will be Speaker Nancy Pelosi (9:15am ET), DNC chair Howard Dean (1:30 pm), and Jesse Jackson. (Filmmaker Michael Moore was supposed to speak too, but NBC’s Dann reports that his plane was delayed and thus he won’t be addressing the group.) What’s more, at 3:00 pm, the Politico and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg will announce the presidential straw poll results from the liberal attendees.
*** “Once, Twice, Three Times A …”: Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Bush today will issue the third veto of his presidency -- and second one on stem cells -- when he rejects the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act, which provides more federal financing for the science. Advisers say Bush will make remarks on his veto at 2:25 pm ET, but won’t actually veto the legislation in public. Meanwhile, congressional Democrats will hold a press conference this afternoon following the president’s veto announcement.
*** On The Trail: Brownback is back in Iowa, hitting six more towns; Giuliani speaks in Iowa, then raises money in New York City; McCain addresses the Florida Broadcasters in Palm Beach, then helps a county GOP committee raise money; Obama raises money in Ohio and Pittsburgh before heading back to DC; and Fred Thompson spends his final day across the pond in London.
*** And…: If you missed checking in with First Read during "Super Tuesday," you missed comprehensive coverage of the entire day in politics, from the AFSCME forum and the Take Back America conference to Fred Thompson's London appearance, Jim Nussle's new job, and so much more. Bottom line, bookmark First Read and check in often so you don't miss a thing.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 6 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 52 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 74 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 122 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 139 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 150 days
Countdown to Iowa: 218 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 229 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 503 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 580 days
The
New York Times says Bloomberg “announced Tuesday that he was dropping his Republican affiliation, a step that could clear the way for him to make an independent bid for the presidency. The announcement was released during a campaign-style swing through California, during which Mr. Bloomberg … used increasingly sharp language to criticize both parties in Washington as too timid to take on big problems and too locked into petty squabbling to work together.”
NBC’s Tim Russert reported this on Nightly News last night: "I just spoke to sources very close to Mayor Bloomberg and the strategy's quite simple. He is positioning himself for a potential -- potential, underscore potential -- independent run for the presidency. He will make a decision in early of 2008, depending on who the major parties nominate and the tone of the campaign. He believes the Democrats are tacking left; the Republicans are tacking right. There's a broad center available.”
More from Russert: “He's willing to spend $500 million of his own money. He's a multibillionaire, but he doesn’t want to run as a spoiler. He's well aware that Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992. He would only run if he could win, but he's very pragmatic… Remember in October of 2000, he was a Democrat, he became a Republican because he saw that nomination was easier to win.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post covers yesterday’s speeches at the “Take Back America” conference. “As the 2008 Democratic presidential candidates sought to woo liberal activists at two different conferences yesterday, former senator John Edwards (N.C.) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson both questioned the boldness of the other candidates in the race.”
The Boston Globe, writing about the AFSCME forum, says Democrats played to a union base yesterday. They promised “to champion the rights of workers to organize and punish companies that outsource jobs.”
CLINTON: The Sopranos video was a smash success in this respect: It was everywhere. From Entertainment Tonight to our own "Nightly News," the Sopranos spoof got plenty of coverage. The only negative comments the rollout of the Clinton campaign song is getting is the choice of the song. Writes Maureen Dowd: "It doesn’t bode well for the cultural health of the country that Hillary picked a song by Celine Dion, who combines the worst of Vegas and Canada." Also, the RNC screamed that Clinton was outsourcing her campaign song by picking the Canadian Dion.
Watch Clinton's Sopranos parody on YouTube CONTINUED >>
GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin wonders in today's New York Observer why conservative activists are looking for another Bush. "A track record of determined leadership, intellectual creativity, extemporaneous speaking skills and well-thought-out plans for the future should be minimal qualifications for the Presidency. Should conservatives reflect on the error of their previous choice, they might adopt criteria more meaningful than a willingness to genuflect to ideological convention. If not, the next chosen candidate will be as hapless as the last."
BROWNBACK: In Iowa yesterday, the Kansas senator discussed an expansive
“culture of life” policy, which “would include welfare reforms to encourage marriage among the poor and federal tracking of divorce rates.” GINGRICH: While Clinton's Sopranos parody is all the YouTube rage, don't miss Gingrich's stint as a spokesperson against the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform legislation. Gingrich appears in an ad -- only posted on
YouTube right now -- that says it was paid for by the conservative group, Citizens United.
CONTINUED >>
In addition to vetoing the embryonic stem-cell legislation, Bush “will issue an executive order intended to encourage scientific advances in regenerative medicine,” the New York Times says. “By pairing the veto with a new scientific initiative, the White House clearly hopes to blunt the inevitable criticism that Mr. Bush will face from researchers, advocates for patients and politicians, including many in his own party.”
The
Washington Post: “President Bush selected a veteran of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress” -- former Iowa Rep. Jim Nussle -- “to become the new head of the White House budget office after current Office of Management and Budget Director Rob Portman announced yesterday that he was stepping down.”
The paper adds: “Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said in an interview that Nussle is not popular among Democrats, who view him as ‘an intense partisan more given to confrontation than cooperation.’ Conrad said ‘he's coming here with baggage’ and could have problems with his confirmation.”
In the special election in Georgia to replace the late Rep. Charlie Norwood (R), state Sen. Jim Whitehead finished with 44% of the vote, and an overwhelming lead, but faces a July 17th runoff because he did not achieve the 50% threshold. Republican Paul Broun and Democrat James Marlow finished second and third and both got just above 20%. As of this morning, the race between Broun and Marlow was too close to call -- separated by just 115 votes, less than 1%. Under state law, the third-place candidate can ask for a recount if separated by less than 1%.
And to replace late Sen. Craig Thomas (R) of Wyoming, the three names the state GOP is handing up to Gov. Dave Freudenthal are lawyer and former GOP state chair Tom Sansonetti, orthopaedic surgeon state Sen. John Barraso, and former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis. Freudenthal has until Sunday to make his pick.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Not yet a declared Republican presidential contender, Fred Thompson answered questions about the kind of president he might be and how he views world affairs -- not from Tennessee but near the river Thames. Thompson spoke today to London's Policy Exchange think tank.
His advisers say the event gave the former Tennessee senator a chance to polish his stump speech while also appearing engaged on international matters. Thompson, in his slow paced southern voice, offered his take on why he is not officially in the race, saying "If there is a bandwagon moving it's not too late for anybody to get on it, I assure you."
Thompson used the venue to display his foreign policy knowledge, and he talked tough on Iran, embracing the use of force if necessary. "When the president of Iran shares his nightmare visions before cheering crowds, those are not just the fanatic's version of an empty applause line. The only safe assumption is that he means it."
Showing his conservative card, Thompson tackled immigration, saying the current debate "leaves most of us uncomfortable" suggesting the government does not have the capability to actually deliver what's in the bill. Still more for conservatives, Thompson spoke at length about former Cheney chief of staff Scooter Libby, who is just weeks away from beginning a 30-month prison term for his perjury and obstruction felony conviction. Thompson, who has raised money for Libby's defense supports a presidential pardon, "I think it is a gross injustice and I think it should be rectified."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray, Jenny Anzelmo, and Carly Zakin
This afternoon,
Barack Obama and
John Edwards took their turns addressing the liberal activists at today's "Take Back America" conference, and each emphasized their central messages. For Obama, it's hope; for Edwards, it's honest leadership. Mentioning that cynical journalists tease him that he always talks about hope, Obama referred to his biography (his job as a community organizer, his service in politics): "I talk about hope because I've seen its power... I know that change is possible. I know that turning the page is possible. This isn't just the rhetoric of a campaign, it's been the cause of my life -- a cause I will work for and fight for every day as your president. It's not enough just to change parties in this election. If we hope to truly transform this country, we have to change our politics too. It's time to turn the page."
 |
|
Meanwhile, Edwards said, "No more pontificating. No more vacillating. No more triangulating. No more broken promises. No more pats on the head. No more we'll-get-around-to-it-next-time. No more taking half a loaf." He continued: "We need to be bold. We need to have backbone. We need courage."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".
In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.
On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each.
With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback).
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Lauren Appelbaum
As we reported earlier in First Read, Richardson called out Democratic rivals Clinton, Obama, Dodd, Biden, and Edwards for what he called their support of "loopholes" to keep troops in Iraq.
Talking to a couple thousand liberal activists at the “Take Back America” conference at the Washington Hilton, Richardson shifted to more forceful anti-war language on Iraq, calling for “zero troops”, “no residual troops” and even a pull out of embassy staff if it is not safe for them to remain.
Despite a slightly lopsided tie and a troublesome lack of preparation for a question on the White House e-mail controversy in a post-speech news conference, this was one of Richardson’s better appearances. He appeared confident and carefully moved toward separating himself from the rest of the field.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Pres. Bush's gain is Rudy Giuliani's loss. Former Iowa GOP Rep. Jim Nussle's decision to accept Bush's appointment as Budget Dir. means Giuliani loses his main Iowa sherpa. Nussle was always a good answer to the question: "Who's handling your Iowa campaign, mister mayor?" And the answer "Nussle" was usually enough to keep the "Rudy's got no organization in Iowa" griping at bay. But with Nussle gone, the answer of "Paul Pate" (the person who is Giuliani's state chair) won't be satisfactory to some Iowa observers. Giuliani heads to Iowa tomorrow to give a fiscal discipline speech (Nussle would be proud) but he also needs to get some bigger names on board to convince folks that he is, indeed, trying to "win" Iowa. Remember, Giuliani can "win" Iowa without coming in first, but he certainly has to play if he wants to make a second place showing a "win."
With Fred Thompson attempting to fire up a campaign and fighting for Iowa supporters, Giuliani's challenge in Iowa is only getting tougher. The next few months of insider angling in Iowa will tell us alot about Giuliani's chances.
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
Replacing Rob Portman with Jim Nussle is not going to be seen as an act of conciliation by the White House toward Hill Democrats.You could ask 100 random people on Capitol Hill their opinion of Rob Portman and likely not find one person who does not use a term like "respect," "bipartisan," "consensus seeker," etc. when judging the man. He is widely considered to be hard working, low key, and competent. When he was here representing his Cincinnati area district he was known to actually work with minority Democrats to get things done. That was rare.
Nussle, on the other hand, is seen by Democrats as more of a partisan. He first earned notice in the early 90s as the guy who spoke from the House floor with a paper bag over his head, an expression of his embarrassment to be part of a Congress beset by Democratic scandals surrounding the House Bank and post office.
CONTINUED >>
