First thoughts

Posted: Tuesday, June 05, 2007 9:31 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts, Democrats, Republicans

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Move Over Iraq: Tonight's GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire might not have the same build up as Sunday's Democratic one, mainly because these Republicans debated just three weeks ago in Columbia, SC. But there are a few intriguing storylines. One is immigration -- an issue which the Senate works on today, and which McCain addressed yesterday in an attempt to shape tonight’s debate (where he’ll likely clash with Romney). The silent interested party in this immigration issue will be Giuliani, who has supported comprehensive immigration reform in the past. How against this bill is he really? Can he sell his opposition with conviction?

*** All Eyes On McCain: With the June 30 second-quarter fundraising deadline looming for McCain, the onetime front-runner is in need of a spark. After all, this is New Hampshire, which he won in 2000 and where his maverick style plays well. But now McCain is being squeezed on two fronts: His support for the war has hurt him with independents (who have soured on the war more than him for now), and his support for immigration has hurt McCain on any inroads he'd been making with the GOP's conservative base.

*** The 6’5 Elephant (Not) In The Room: Thompson may be 6'5, but his shadow will loom even larger over tonight's debate. Can Romney show he's a consistent enough conservative to disprove the need for Thompson? Can McCain show he's the straight-talking candidate who disproves the need for Thompson's homespun rhetoric? Can Giuliani show he's tough enough on terrorism to disprove the need for Thompson's own tough terror talk? But Thompson is starting to attract some skeptical press. Check out Charlie Cook’s column today.

*** Will Freudenthal Look Ahead To ’08? The death of GOP Sen. Craig Thomas will not affect the balance of power in the Senate. Wyoming bars a governor from appointing someone of the opposite party to replace a deceased lawmaker. The state GOP will select three potential replacements and submit those names to Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D), who will then choose one for the vacancy. The entire process will happen in the next 15-20 days. A special election to fill the remainder of Thomas' term will be held in November 2008. As with any death of an elected official, the politics of the appointment process will be something to watch. Freudenthal is likely the best candidate Democrats could come up with to run in the special election, so he may be appointing a future political opponent. In years past, there has been idle speculation of Lynne Cheney's interest in running for office. Don't be surprised if her name pops up at some point in this process.

*** Don’t Forget: First Read will be live-blogging to provide instant analysis of tonight’s debate, which begins at 7:00 pm ET. Also, remember that First Read isn't just for mornings anymore. We're updating our blog constantly with the best news and analysis available from NBC News.

*** On The Trail: Elizabeth Edwards is in Savannah, GA, where she holds a media avail and speaks to the Electric Cooperatives of South Carolina’s summer conference. Meanwhile, Obama is in Virginia, where he addresses Hampton University’s Ministers’ conference.

Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 13 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 20 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 66 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 90 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 136 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 153 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 164 days
Countdown to Iowa: 222 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 244 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 517 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 594 days

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Comments

the reason guliani has been silent on the ilegal immigration is pretty obvious isn't it? him and steve forbes intend to continue the flood of slave labor across the border to ensure that wages and benifits in this country keep getting driven down for all except the wealthy elite, this is a key factor in the republican plan for the 2 class society they think the u.s.a. should be

MK,MO (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 9:47 AM)

Nine clones of George W. Bush promising us four more years of "stay the course" both in the failed Iraq, and in a failed domestic United States, that has most Americans feeling we are headed in the wrong direction. I cannot imagine a worse waste of time than listening/watching this batch of Bush followers. No thanks.

Coy Reese, Shady Spring, West Virginia (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 10:01 AM)

MK,MO Once again I agree with you on the republican's plan for a two class society. Thats why these large corporations support the BCCA.

Ollie frenchburg ky (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 10:14 AM)

I agree on the two class society. The basic "trickle up" economics. Shift wealth from working class to uber-wealthy profiteers. Usually a war is needed to maintain the process. The GOPers have this in place and want to keep it going. Health care and fuel costs are now two main vehicles to shift the wealth.

Flat-earther, Georgia (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 10:50 AM)

Ollie, not to sound ignorant, but what is the BCCA?

Dawn, somewhere in Kansas (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 10:50 AM)

Dawn, The BCCA is secret organization that large companies and corporations belong to. Its called the "Bush Cheney Corporation of America"

Ollie frenchburg ky (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 11:26 AM)

Speaking of Elisabeth Edwards in Savannah, it's about time the Dems started talking to the deep South. Kerry never ventured down there, and he wouldn't give the religious right the time of day. What with that and the Swift Boat traitors, every little bit counts.

JIrby, Colorado (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 11:27 AM)

It's called "class warfare," and Bush has taken it to a height that would have given Reagan a wet dream. Now the the right only has to oppress the the "have nots" to the point where they worry about survival in their "old age" (50 for me, I guess) and then they can nail the lid down. Stand up or roll over, America.

Mourning in America (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 11:56 AM)

Thanks Ollie. It all fits together now.

Dawn, somewhere in Kansas (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 12:23 PM)

We need an agressive 50 state campaign with more emphasis in the south. Howard Dean keeps getting proven right. Someday his turn will come.

Russell in Maryland (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 1:19 PM)

When McCain clashes with Romney it will be interesting. I don't know who will win, but I bet Romney gets the most right wing bumper sticker sound bytes per sentence. He's Milli Vanilli to me, especially if you can equate lip syncing with bumper sticker sound bytes. Only with Milli, I knew who was calling the shots. However, as with Milli, its own a matter of time before a glitch exposes the production.

Richmo, Former Democracy (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 2:54 PM)

The same corporate meglamaniacs control the distribution of our gasoline, food and utilities. They don't need to plot to rule us, or reduce us to a two-class society, they already have. We need to take back America from Big Oil (manipulated by Saudi Arabia) while we still have a country left.

Joseph R. Schifino, New London, CT (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 5:50 PM)

Lynne Cheney in the Senate? Good grief. The only thing worse might be Barbara Cubin, passing out male genital-shaped (can I say that?) cookies, just like she did in the Wyoming Legislature years ago.

Inky, Casper, WY (Sent Tuesday, June 05, 2007 6:36 PM)

As a lifelong Wyomingite until recently, I think you guys are crazy that Lynne Cheney would be suggested. The Wyoming Republican Party may be stupid (exhibit A is their "airplane" commercials from Cubin's last election) but even I don't think they are that stupid. I bet they nominate guys like Cale Case or Bruce Asay who might be semi-electable in '08. As much as they might want a troglodyte they aren't going to play with fire by risking running one against Freudenthal (possibly). I hope they nominate Cubin personally, so I can pester her 2 chickenhawk sons for not joining the undermanned war their mom slathers over.

flounder, Prescott, AZ (Sent Wednesday, June 06, 2007 12:54 AM)

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