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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Like A Heavyweight Boxing Match...

Posted: Tuesday, June 05, 2007 9:00 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
It's hard to pick a winner of this debate because the debate itself will be, as my colleague Ron Allen said to me earlier, "inconsequential." This debate had all the trappings of a heavyweight boxing title fight:  Incredible hype followed by an incredible letdown. The pre-fight back-n-forth between Romney and McCain seemed to foretell what was going to be a great battle between the two Republicans chasing Giuliani.  Alas, those of us in the media hoping to dissect a good verbal tussle between the two were disappointed.

If this debate is remembered at all, it will be for being the last debate NOT to include the 6'5" elephant in the room... Fred Thompson -- a person who the candidates seem to be worrying about more than any of us realized tonight.

Ok, personal disappointment in the lack of engagement aside, here are my quick thoughts:

-- McCain was the news. It felt as if the first 45 minutes of the debate was all about McCain. From Iraq to immigration, the candidates essentially were point-counterpointing with McCain. So if owning the subject matter of the debate qualifies as winning, then declare McCain the winner. But there was something about his body language tonight that didn't come across as the optimistic Republican he claims to be. There was a dourness to him at some points. His emotive high point was when he led the way in standing up during the town hall portion of the debate and showed incredible Clintonesque empathy toward the woman who lost a relative in Iraq. Overall, it was a competent performance but was it enough to give him an extra spark that his campaign seems to need?  It certainly was a "presidential" performance but right now one senses the GOP is looking for savior, not a president.

-- Rudy Giuliani was solid but he still hasn't been challenged yet. McCain tried to draw him out during the immigration exchange and Rudy did a pretty good job of fighting off the criticism without creating a moment for either himself or McCain. But it was the only time he was challenged. Still, one can sense that Giuliani is now a comfortable Republican, particularly on economic issues.

-- Mitt Romney seemed less involved in this debate than in previous broadcasts. It's possible that Romney, like the other two frontrunners, was more concerned about giving Fred Thompson an opening. The defense of running TV ads in Spanish had the "some of my best friends are Hispanics" quality to it. That's not a good thing.

-- The candidate who performed best, frankly, was Mike Huckabee. He showed that his experience as a preacher man is vital in the television age. That said, Huckabee doesn't have national security credentials and if you look carefully at what he says in these debates, it's glaring. No one notices right now because no one views him as a serious threat even while acknowledging how good he is on stage. Still, his response to Wolf on evolution was the 60-second monologue of the night; even McCain acknowledged its excellence.

-- As for the rest of the field: Tommy Thompson had some surprisingly coherent moments and probably guaranteed he'd get into the media reviews of this debate because of what he said about Fred Thompson and his veiled diplomacy shot at Pres. Bush; Tancredo is getting better, he ought to think about running for statewide office; Gilmore, Paul, Brownback and Hunter were more invisible this time than in debates past.

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Craig, I agree...Rudy is the candidate that scares the Dems. Pro-choice and pro-war. That could be a winning combination. It all depends on what Iraq looks like come next summer. The Dems will have to make him a target soon, like he made Hillary a target in this debate. Notice how deftly he wraps Iraq into the war on terror...kind of reminds me of Chenney. Frankly he scares me, but I can see why he's leading the polls.
You mention Huckabee's lack of national security credentials. I'm curious. What are the credentials for Romney or Guiliani? Both of them "avoided" Vietnam. Neither of them has ever served in the military, or even as a security guard at the mall. The closest Giuliani got to security was standing outside the WTC on 9/11 and making for nice photo ops. Not saying that's bad, but the only reason it looked like leadership is because Bush scurried his tail to an undisclosed location. Raised on that bar, Big Bird and Cookie Monster look like fricking national security geniuses.
As a Democrat - I hope that Ron Paul can overcome the role of an "Invisible Candidate". He is the type of man we need in the White House and I would vote for him without any doubt in my mind. Give him a chance AMERICA!
'Grumpy Old Men"-Movie
I loved McCain's answer last night to "what do we do if the surge doesn't work? What are our options?" Basically all he did was throw out the neo-con, Repub, Bushism "theyll follow us home if it doesn't work and we don't win" and the consequences of our failure will be catastrophic. Where has he been for the last year or so as far as public opinion is concerned? Is this another case of father knows best and what the American people think doesn't matter? 70% of the people want out of Bush's war. Ditto for his views on immigration. We do not need anymore of this and we do not need another Bush/Repub. in the White House.
coy reese, I agree with what you're saying, it may not be what a lot of dem's want to hear but it is the truth none the less, edwards is the only dem that has a chance to win the general election, otherwise we will have guliani and steve forbes continuing the repub quest for a 2 class monarchy, people best be aware of whats at stake in 08 and vote accordingly
coy reese, I agree with what you're saying, it may not be what a lot of dem's want to hear but it is the truth none the less, edwards is the only dem that has a chance to win the general election, otherwise we will have guliani and steve forbes continuing the repub quest for a 2 class monarchy, people best be aware of whats at stake in 08 and vote accordingly
I think this country is ready for a HUGE change-thanks to Bush totally screwing things up. That big change could be a woman or a black man, believe it or not. People are tired of the usual white rich man making a mess of everything.
In Huckabee's defense, it's hard to show your national security knowledge, or economic knowledge for that matter when you only get ONE question in the first 30-40 minutes and the only direct questions you get have to do with MSM talking point moral issues. The MSM seems shocked, SHOCKED! that anyone would defend the theory of creation (if you believe in God, then you can certainly believe God could have created the earth to appear older, or could have set the evolutionary motion in place) or really be against abortion. Huckabee knocked those questions out of the park but did not get a chance to answer any others. It was like they were trying to marginalize him. The same could be said for other candidates. I wish that the debate moderators and networks would not pick and choose the frontrunners like they do. Let us decide.
I am amazed by all the support on these boards for Ron Paul? Dr. Ron Paul is a sort-of libertarian. His views about imperial undertakings and the advancement of the State is typical - reduce federal power to simply protecting our borders and our ships of trade and defending individual liberties. He also is for eliminating ALL laws illegalizing drugs, proposes eliminating medicare and medicaid, and arresting all 12-20 million illegal aliens and bodily shipping them back to wherever they came from in addition to fortifying the border. While there may be sympathy for his position on Iraq and preemptive war, one needs only to read his various websites, publications and position papers to realize he is not a liberal and in fact supports radical ideas - similar to Jefferson, Washington, Lincoln among others: "Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." - George Washington; "A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine." - Thomas Jefferson; "This country, with its institutions, belongs to the people who inhabit it. Whenever they shall grow weary of the existing government, they can exercise their constitutional right of amending it, or exercise their revolutionary right to overthrow it." - Abraham Lincoln. "When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Dr. Ron Paul "The moral and constitutional obligations of our representatives in Washington are to protect our liberty, not coddle the world, precipitating no-win wars, while bringing bankruptcy and economic turmoil to our people." - Dr. Ron Paul No, Ron Paul is definitely not your typical Democrat or Republican.
JR, I will admit, Huckabee's answer on evolution was eloquent, but the off hand comment about "if you want to believe we are decended from primates.. go ahead".. was kindof insulting. Evolution is no wishy washy theory, it's steeped in scientific evidience and it's the basis for most scientific discovery.. especially in medicine. To deny there is truth to it, is downright stupid. I am a christian, why couldn't God have created evolution, as you mention? I don't define this theory "creationism", because I don't reject evolution.
Why are McCain and Guliani so special? McCain is living off his military service; Anyone can become a POW. Guilani is living off the tragedy of 9/11; Anyone could have been mayor on that tragic day. Neither have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to offer to the American people because you can tell that they are WAR MONGERS! But you continue to ignore Ron Paul who won his 3rd straight debate and is killing everybody else in the online polls? Unbeievable!!
"Chain, chain chain...chain of fools," - Aretha Franklin
I am getting tired of seeing the on-line polls manipulated by a few. When will MSNBC and the other online polls fix their system so that the same people won't skew the results by voting over and over from the same computer? Right now this is ridiculously easily done! Especially obnoxious are the Ron Paul supporters (is this beacause Libertarians are the closest things to anarchists in the US and anarchists are traditionally found among young (technically savvy) fanatics with plenty of time on their hands?)
I only snapped awake when on Paul was allowed so speak. His honesty made a mockery of the dancing game played by the rest of the pack. Put Ron on the spot and he actually answers the question...so refreshing wheter one agrees or disagrees with him.
I only snapped awake when Ron Paul was allowed to speak. His honesty made a mockery of the dancing game played by the rest of the pack. Put Ron on the spot and he actually answers the question...so refreshing wheter one agrees or disagrees with him.
Elizabeth Cav -- please tell us how to do the vote skewing so we can fix it. You say it is ridiculously easy but I don't know how to do it. Every time I try to vote twice it tells me I have voted already.
It would appear that those who want pre-packaged, bland, and forgettable clones of George W. Bush as their GOP Presidential nominee, have a bit of difficulty in handling the fact, that apparently Ron Paul, has made the most definitive impression on the viewers of last evening's debate. A check with polls on CNN indicate the same thing. No, the ability to vote multiple times, was not an option.
He..he..he..he..he The polls ain't being manipulated Lads and Lassies. I'm no young chick either and I went to college during Viet Nam. I've a postdoctrate education and a computer,. I've also been reading Ron Paul, MDs political essays/treatises for the past six years online. The Media/ABCNBCCBSCNNFOXMSNBC has helped Bush deconstruct my Constitution and my Democracy. Then they attempt to suppress an honest politician who exhibits integrity and truthiness. We/I are on all the websites telling the truth about the false/fake/Neocon/nuclearbombluvin choices being foisted on people sick of wars, tired of losing jobs, and wanting out of these wars taking our children. I want to consider someone like Ron Paul for a change.
Russell in Maryland... one example is, before you vote, to perform a "search" of your C: drive for files modified/created within the last e.g. 24hrs. Then vote. Then perform a search again. Delete all non-essential files you can that have been added/modified since before the vote (for MSNBC there are several, but the critical one is a folder labeled MSNBC something or the other...). Vote again. Repeat as desired. I am not technically proefficient nor computer savvy, but I am sure there are shortcuts to this and ways to make it automatic or even to null the proccess whereby the folder/cookie/tracking device is shunted).
The Repub candidates are granola....fruits, nuts and flakes..Paul is the biggest flake....
Who is Giuliani talking to when he pushes nation build with the U.S. Military? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgr3gDS3Dhc I don't know anyone who wants that. It is frightening to see them embrace the moral imperative protecting life and then call for the nuclear option in Iran. Ron Paul is the only one who is sane
Coy, removing tracking files from a computer is most definitely an option. And the only people that really appear to have a problem handling Ron Paul (or rather his followers) are the on-line pollsters. Lana, I also have a post-doctoral education and a computer (however this last is only a tool for me rather than a way of life). And yes, the polls are being manipulated. You are obviously having the laugh at this time and may well continue to do so until the powers that be decide to fix these problems. You, and everyone else, should definitely consider Ron Paul and his ideas, but I would admonish you to consider them on their entirety and then include the fact that this person has no problems inculcating his pseudo-christian and uber-nationalistic views into the laissez-faire libertarian doctrine. This is why he is, correctly, part of the Republican right-wing machinery. The resulting picture is not, in my opinion, a pretty one. Frankly, Ron Paul scares the doo-dad out of me.
Lana, I totally agree! I had never heard of Ron Paul prior to the first Rep. debate. I'm in my forties, no techno geek, and his message really resonated with me.
The Edge, LOL. We in California are rather partial to fruits, nuts and flakes.... just so long as they are not packaged in right-wing vitriola.
JR - Mike Huckabee is a horrible preacher and did not knock the evolution/creation question out of the park. He had the opportunity to say something like this: Science and religion will never agree on the origin of the universe (cosmology), let allow the origin of man (evolution). Why do people you claim to have a strong religious faith (like Mr. Huckabee) find it difficult to embrass science? I am a Christian, believe in the Biblical account of creation, and yet have no problem with the theory of evolution or the Big Bang. Why? Because my religious beliefs are based on faith and my views on science are based on reason and theories and hypotheses that have not been disproven. People tend to forget that science never "proves" anything, but theories and hypotheses gain acceptance over time because they have survived repeated testing and/or are supported by newly discovered information using the scientific method. In science, all theories and hypotheses are, at least conceptually, falsifiable. That is why neither "creationism" nor "intelligent design" is science, and can never be science, because there advocates do not consider them falsifiable. That is what makes both doctrines religion and not science, and must keep them out of public school science classrooms. The Big Bang theory of the origin of the universe and the theory of evolution are useful to everyone in understanding the cosmos and the world around us. Medicine, for example, comes from science not either the old or new testament. Why do so many "conservative Christians" find it difficult to reconcile science and religion? Do such people of faith not realize they are showing the weakness of their beliefs? Now that type of statement might actually have moved the dialogue forward, instead of the usual rehearsed dribble.
I like Ron Paul. I am not a republican, but I WOULD vote for him. I think people should vote for the candidate who would be the best for the job, and I think Ron Paul would be that candidate. People should quit trying to say that because we think Ron Paul has the best ideas for our country we must be internet junkies. He'd win hands down, with people from all sides supporting him.
Ron Paul is GOD.
John McCain is no war hero,   nor any hero.    I know that first hand *was there as carnage came upon my squadron*   VF 74 and my sister squadron VF 11..   told in Sep 67 to NAME HEROES....  I didnt name him then, but/ cause CARNAGE McCain is STILL CARNAGE McCain.

Gulliani is SHELL SHOCKED,  from being too close to the disaster (done that too)  though the U.S. NAVY denies it (but I kept documents >wink...  HELLO DAN RATHER... REAL DOCUMENTS  FROM A REAL VET... not a NURSING HOME SECRETARY...  no offense meant to her.     jUL IE  THE  BU  LEE WILL always be that.

Romney,  too slick even for a mobster,  and he will get all the BLACK VOTE in UTAH...  oops.    

Then we have Ron Paul,   oh Ron,   I kept documents on the MUSLIMS in 1968  after Viet Nam in 1967.   Ron you just dont know how RIGHT you are.     I did write John Kerry and say  HEY LOOK  JOHN     THERE ARE NO  WMD's... AND DONT VOTE FOR THIS WAR..  AND IF YOU DO ...  SADDAM IS THE ONLY GLUE...  and yeah we know how he voted.    Oh I kept that email too.    He did respond...  and asked me to a PUB IN GREENVILLE,  SOUTH CAROLINA before the BROKAW visit.    Sorry JK.. WE DONT CALL THEM PUBS... and we dont vote for NONWINNABLE WARS....  but thanks for the invite.   And oh yeah,  thanks for the UN INVITE... after you found out I had voted Republican *shoulda pulled that Gore lever*

GO  RON  PAUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   RIGHT  MESSAGE,   RIGHT  MAN   RIGHT  TIME!!!!!!!!!!!   Dont make me vote Democrat... but if Ron Paul is... then he has my vote... regardless of party.    

HILLARY   is most moderate of the all the Repubs big THREE...  strange race is this one.     But we dont need more Clintons and dont need more Bush'es.. STAY HOME JEB!!!!!!!!!  

The republican party is a joke,  and the democrats trip over themselves.

LET  ME  TELL  BOTH  PARTIES   SOMETHING  

THE  EMPEROR (W)  HAS NO CLOTHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

these are only my ideas...  and when the slogan EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES...    well that is MY BUMPER STICKER!!!!!!!!!!    

boyscout bush as I called him in the John Kerry email...  has cost us too many lives.   Boyscout Bush needs to send his twin daughters for hmmmmm a TWO YEAR TOUR!!!!!!!!!!      
Good call Chuck!  You really know your politics.  McCain really did well in this debate, oh wait isn't he the guy that has less money than Ron Paul now.

Bang up job chief!  Why don't you cover the Dem debates.  You can ignore Kucinich on the other side.


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