Ames straw poll
Posted: Thursday, June 07, 2007 9:32 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
Republicans
Yesterday, both the Giuliani and McCain campaigns announced they wouldn’t be participating in the Ames straw poll. The Des Moines Register: "No candidate in the straw poll's nearly 30 year history has bypassed the event and won the caucuses." But with three of the four front-runners out, this streak could be broken.
The
New York Times sees the decision by Giuliani and McCain to skip the straw poll as having to do with the changing primary calendar. "Their decision was the clearest indication of how much the changing primary calendar is upending presidential politics this year, as candidates grapple with the prospect of huge primaries in crucial states like Florida on Jan. 29 and California, New York and Texas a week later."
But don't assume that the $3 million or so that Giuliani and McCain save from not competing is somehow helpful for the later states. (What exactly does $3 million buy in California? Not much.) This decision was not about the calendar as it was about not giving Romney an opportunity for a major win this August. Don't over-read into this decision by both campaigns. Remember, Romney was spending endless amounts of money to win this straw poll.
Indeed, the Los Angeles Times sees the decision as about slowing down Romney. "The lack of top-tier competition could undercut a Romney victory, denying the former Massachusetts governor momentum from a win."
The Des Moines Register’s Yepsen: “The Ames straw poll has become a shake-down of candidates that, for some, has replaced the caucuses themselves as a test of viability.” But “that trial run is useful training for caucus night,” especially for Giuliani, who “is slow getting started in Iowa,” and “could use a little hustle.” “Romney’s win won’t count for much.”
By the way, we got our hands on an internal Romney Iowa poll from late May. That poll, taken a week ago, had Romney at 29%, Giuliani at 12%, Fred Thompson and Gingrich at 10% each, McCain at 9%, and Huckabee at 7%. This was a significant change from a March Romney poll, which had Giuliani at 24%, McCain at 17%, Gingrich and Romney at 15%, and Huckabee at 7%.
