ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First Thoughts

Posted: Thursday, June 14, 2007 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Problem With The Dog Food? The most striking thing about the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is the damage that's been done to the GOP brand. Bush is not only unpopular (his approval rating is just 29% and favorability is only 32% -- both all-time lows for him). But his unpopularity also is dragging down the image of the Republican Party to its lowest level ever in this survey (28% positive rating). For better or worse, the GOP needs Bush to improve if they want the party's image to improve.

*** Donkey Gong: While the GOP is dealing with historic image problems, all is not well for the Democrats. Congress' job rating (23%) is worse than Bush's. Maybe it's no coincidence that in the same week Congress is on the receiving end of bad ratings, congressional Democratic leaders are trying to restart a fight over Iraq policy with the White House. Looking ineffective on non-Iraq issues wasn't working, so now Reid-Pelosi are going back to the one issue that unifies the base. Note that Reid met with several liberal bloggers earlier this week.

*** A “Changed” Woman: In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton has increased her lead over Obama from five points in April (36%-31%) to 14 points now (39%-25%). What has happened? The poll shows that Democrats give Clinton high marks for her knowledge and experience, and give Obama high marks for being “inspirational” and “exciting.” However, Clinton outscores Obama on the question of who brings real change to the direction of the country. How are the Obama folks allowing Clinton -- who served eight years as First Lady and another six-plus years as senator -- to be the “change” candidate?

*** Enter Fred: The biggest news from the poll in the GOP presidential field is that Fred Thompson -- who still isn’t even in the race officially -- finishes second to Giuliani (29%-20%). McCain, meanwhile, is tied with Romney at 14%, which won’t help the Arizona senator much in parrying reporters who are eager to write his obituary. Also, it seems like Thompson’s possible entry into the race has perked up GOP voters. In April, just 53% of Republicans said they were satisfied with their presidential field. That number now is 73%.


VIDEO: Survey says: American is grumpy

*** The Other Thompson Twin: Yesterday, Tommy Thompson’s team issued a press release stating he would make a “major announcement” on the future of his presidential campaign via conference call -- which had everyone speculating he was dropping out of the race. As it turned out, though, he said he would be participating in the Ames straw poll. The near-campaign death experience for Thompson's camp is a reminder for all second-tier candidates that if they fail to make the first tier, their biggest press day will take place on the day they drop out. Tommy Thompson got 50+ reporters to show up for yesterday's conference call. He won't get that again until ...

*** On The Trail: Clinton, in New Hampshire, delivers the commencement speech at Manchester Central High School; Edwards reveals more details of his universal health-care policy in Michigan; Giuliani meets with the Delaware GOP at a Flag Day rally; Huckabee talks with Hannity on radio and TV; McCain continues his fund-raising blitz -- this time with three stops in Texas; Obama hits DC and North Carolina; Richardson raises money in Minneapolis; and Romney raises money in Chicago.

Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 4 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 11 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 57 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 81 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 127 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 144 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 155 days
Countdown to Iowa: 213 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 234 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 508 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 585 days

MAIN PAGE

Email this EMAIL THIS

Comments

The G.O.P. is done, The Democrats have only to end the War in Iraq if they want to be in charge for the next decade, Hillary will win The Presidency if she gets the nomination, and Fred Thompson looked old and tired in the photographs from the Leno show the other night.
'Nuff said.
fred is old and tired.
All I want are competent, qualified people filling government positions. I want an end to using party affiliation as a qualifier for judicial positions. I want accountability for elected officials. I want open debate in this country over immigration, energy issues and universal health care, instead of behind the scenes deal making between lawmakers and special interests. I support John Edwards for President because he specifically addresses the need for transparency in government. Took me a long time to make up my mind, but I've decided he is the real deal, the real change candidate, if we want to revitalize democracy in America.
Where's the evidence that Dems are in hot water due to the low approval ratings of Congress?  Most people seem to be aware that Congress isn't getting anything done because Republicans do everything in their power to gridlock the proceedings and Bush will veto a lot of what might get through.  Seems to me that continues to put Republicans in the cross hairs.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH "LOWER" WILL THE PRESIDENTS APPROVAL RATING WILL BE ? AT THIS RATE IT WILL PROBABLY DROP TO .00000000000000000000000000000001%
If the GOP wants to improve the party image, they should repudiate George Bush and start voting for what's best for the country.
Next thing, Politicians will say they'd do a better job if they got paid more.  The term 'Worthless Bums' keeps springing to mind.
IF YOU ARE UNDECIDED AS TO WHO SHOULD BE ARE NEXT PRESIDENT, WHY DON'T YOU CHECK OUT...HILLARYCLINTON.COM , THE INFORMATION IS FREE AND THE KNOWLEDGE IS PRICELESS.
Hillary, wise and experienced?  I don't think so.  Just because she was put under fire because of her goofy husband doesn't mean she can handle the pressure of being president.  Remember, she tried to take over the health care issue back in 93 and nobody was ready for socialized medicine and she suffered a beating for that one.  It is still way to early to start calling victory for Hillary.  She has a lot of problems now and more problems coming down the road.
The gop has self destructed! As my Mom used to say "You are judged by the company you keep"...
"When you lay down with dogs, you get up with fleas."
"If your friends jumped off a bridge would you?" and my all time favorite.
"Birds of a feather flock together."
And many more...The Dems have to learn "There is saftey in numbers", and "United we stand divided we fall."
HAPPY FLAG DAY!

While you go gaga over which ever presidential candidate you think will be the next “great leader” keep in mind that our best presidents got in office by accident.
Other than the “Founding Fathers” Washington, Jefferson and Madison all the presidents ranked as our best got into the White House more by the actions of others rather than an educated and enlightened electorate.  
Lincoln won due to the north/south split in the Democratic Party. Teddy Roosevelt became president because William McKinley the elected president was assassinated. FDR was elected primarily because Hoover was dysfunctional in the face of our economic depression. Truman was chosen by FDR over many far better known political leaders. (I know he picked him to be his VP, but FDR had to know he would live out his 4th term.)
We also got most of our worst presidents through “sweeping” majority elections.
Our next president that will turn the country in the right direction (what ever that is) will most likely become president not because of our enlightenment but in spite of it.
I'm no Hillary fan, but at least she recognized that health care was a problem a while back and tried to do something about it.  That plan failed because it tried to please lots of people and therefore became very complex and easy to shoot down by special interests.  She tried working with people and creating a consensus and when the insurance industry didn't get enough they attacked to protect their selfish interests.  
Although Congress has low ratings, I wonder why the question wasn't asked "which party do you blame for your dislike of Congress?"  I am quite sure the Republicans would have rated lower than the Democrats.  It's not the Democrats' fault that Bush has the veto pen and a loyal coterie of fools who will back him up even if more than two thirds of the country disagree with them.  If this immigration bill does pass and Bush signs it, the fallout will be on the Republicans because once again, their previous loyalty to the President on almost every other issue has created the public perception, true or not, that they agree with him on everything.
ONCE AGAIN CHECK OUT ..HILLARYCLINTON.COM ,AND HAVE A NICE DAY!
Anybody watch "lil bush" last night on the comedy channel?  Funniest thing I have seen in a long, long time.  Don't worry repugnants, they got in a few digs to lil Bill and lil Hillary too, but by far the laugh is on the shrubs, cheney's and condi!  Had to tape it, gonna make sure it stays in my film library for a long, long time. Just hope the folks at Fox don't get it pulled, great adult entertainment, especially if you don't like repugnants. Hope they get a jab or two in about freddy (be sure to read Jan Howard's tell all book about fred if you want to know who he really is).
Just as long as she never has YOUR problems!
We are so ready for A better America.
You do not make America better jerry, you are so unwise and unqualified for picking cotton.
Jerry, I asked you yesterday to provide a link to your claims about an outrageous story you claimed were in Las Vegas papers.  But the papers did not seem to have the story.  Can you provide a link or was it just more made up BS like most of your posts?
John B asked "Where's the evidence that Dems are in hot water due to the low approval ratings of Congress?"  Have you seen Harry Reid's approval rating?  Wasn't it like 19% or something like that?
What about this low approval rating for the congress? Seems to me that there are an almost equal amount of dems and repubs. So the media says the dems have a lower approval rating than the president.Hmmm, Repubs sure do know how to spin.
Yesterday Bush tied his lowest ever rating on Rasmussen Report, which comes out every day. His "strong" approval rating,AKA morons for Bush, was 12%, which was the lowest I've seen it. Speaking of morons, Huckabee going on Hannity means that Huckabee is one more repub going after the moron vote. The moron vote is basically the people who voted for Bush twice and are glad they did. They include guys from thirty on who live in their parent's basement, voters who still believe in Santa Clause and the tooth fairy, voters who are virgins for life, pro-choice people, and people on this blog who speak out for Bush. Most of them are all of the above.
I was polled last night and I said that I disapprove of Bush and disapprove of Congress. This immigration bill is horrendous. In my book, whenever Bush and Kennedy agree on something, that's not going to turn out well (i.e. immigration bill, no child left behind, medicare part D). I, of course, disapprove of the Democratic "leadership" in Congress but I almost equally disapprove of Republican "leadership" in congress. This is just rediculous. Not only do we have a lame duck president to deal with for the next 18 months but a lame congress too.
Gee Jerry - with all of Hillary's so called "problems", she managed to win two landslide elections to the U.S. Senate - no small feat!
I agree with a few of the other posts about the congress approval rating. Remember the senate is split 49 to 51. I for one am also very dissapointed with this congress, but I have enough brains to put the blame where it surely belongs, on the republican side of the aisle. They are the ones that didn't do oversight for the past 6 years and rubber stamped the shrub. At least the Dems are trying to end this war, with little success due to the repubs still in office. But they are trying with the votes that they have. So the choice is clear, vote in more dems on the next election, then you will see the country head back in the right direction, end of story.
Zookeeper, do I have to do your homeowrk too.  I just googled the story I heard on CNN.  I found it, it costs money to get the story (typical vegas, gotta pay for everything).  The madame in question is claiming among her rich clientle is a former president and a famous basketball player.  the player is screaming his head off that he wasn't in any part of it.  You might check the AP, seems it was a AP story as well.  Maybe it is bull, maybe it isn't.  I also remember him standing in the oval office saying to the world "I did not have sex with that woman".  Judge for yourself, if you get caught with another woman, it just adds up after a while, especially with the clintons. It just peaked my interest because he has so many stories about women since he left office it isn't worth thinking about, but when a liberal media says something, I do go and do my homework.  Now, zookeeper, go do yours!
Zoo, it appears to me that jerry's only source of topics he trumpets hereabouts is Rush, Sean, et al.  Read what jerry says today and you'll know what they said last night.  jerry's mastered the technique:  it don't matter that it's not true, just keep repeating it, over and over and over...
As opposed to what Jirby?Leftwingers who apologize for jihadist murder,support dictators and want everyone to live in Hobbit holes?Americans may be tired of one[Bush Republicans],but are readily distrustful of the other[Kucinich/Gravel-left].After the smoke clears,only the moderates will remain standing.Americans will no more back ''progressive''tax and spend schemes than they will the religiously-fueled machinations of the right.With most of the GOP crooks and bombthrowers gone,and Bush going,it only remains for these Democrat dinosaurs to be kicked to the 08 curb in order to commence changes more palatable to Americans,starting with immigration and ending with Iraq.
would be true Scott, except in this case, it was the most liberal of all media.  I just did the research.
"I'm no Hillary fan, but at least she recognized that health care was a problem a while back and tried to do something about it.  That plan failed because it tried to please lots of people and therefore became very complex and easy to shoot down by special interests.  She tried working with people and creating a consensus and when the insurance industry didn't get enough they attacked to protect their selfish interests."

I'm sorry, but that's plain BS. Hillary was secretive and controlling with regards to healthcare. She spurned the advances of moderate Republicans who recognized that health care was an issue that needed to be resolved on a national scale. The end result was the fiasco that we have now.

Secretive, controlling, calculating, and politically tone-deaf? Does that remind you of anyone? Hillary is the obverse of GW Bush. If you're not happy with Bush, you're not going to be happy with Hillary either.

The Democrats are being led off a cliff by being pushed to endorse Hillary at precisely the wrong moment -- when the signs are propitious for a Democratic president. Hillary just doesn't have it. She has an automatic 60 percent of eligible voters against her. It'll be a landslide, all right, AGAINST her. You think Kerry in 2004 was bad, 2008 is going to be much worse.

Craig---whoever said people in New York were smart?  You hear all the screaming and yelling about taxes in new York and life issues and yet you keep voting in the same idiots that do nothing for their state.  Like H P says, "you lay down with dogs, you get fleas".  very true about the democratic party.
Jerry - Why do you constantly bring up the health care mess from 1993?  Are you the same person you were 13 years ago?  Have you grown as a person, become wiser?  Thirteen years is a lifetime in politics.  
P.S. Yeah, I'm a lawyer not an accountant.  1993 was in fact 14 years ago...haha.
To all the Hillary supporters.  Although I think she is an intelligent and capable leader, the fact remains that there are so many people who absolutely hate her.  These people are not going to change their mind and they include many moderates.  If you watch Fox news you can easily see that they are trying to promote her as the primary winner.  Why?  Because they know they can beat her.  She polarizes the country, and is the best chance they have of electing another idiot into office (like Guiliana, F Thompson, or Romney).  Yes she won over NY, but that isn;t going to happen in the entire country.  The best thing you could do for our country, which desperately needs new leadership, is to stop supporting a great Democrat WHO WILL NOT WIN.
Jerry, do you have any friends? Now or ever?
"Looking ineffective on non-Iraq issues wasn't working, so now Reid-Pelosi are going back to the one issue that unifies the base."

This seems like a case of willful or near-willful blindness (something the corporate media is especially prone to these days). Recent polls seems to show, fairly unambigously, that the sharp deterioration in approval ratings for Congress were tied directly to the Democratic failure to force a timetable for ending the Iraq debacle. It had little or nothing to do with "non-Iraq" issues.

It could be that the most recent drop in congressional approval is actually due to REPUBLICAN disenchantment with the immigration bill, which has caused conservatives to turn both on Bush and on their guys in the House and Senate. We don't know, because MSNBC hasn't seen fit to give the partisan breakout. But the idea that all this is due to the Democrats' "ineffectiveness" on non-Iraq issues is absurd on its face, and only shows how far the corporate media will go to deny the obvious reality that an overwhelming number of Americans are now overwhelmingly opposed to continuing our misadventure in Iraq.  
"Leftwingers who apologize for jihadist murder,support dictators and want everyone to live in Hobbit holes?"  Sounds like the right wing, to me. Saudia Arabia, Pakistan - dictators, and your president's closes allies. As far as suupporting jihadists, or at least terrorists murders, BushCo is protecting one right now, or is it not "terrorism" when you bomb an airplane full of Cubans?
Holmes - the only people who care what you think are the few people on this blog who have their thinking outsoursed to FOX News and Limbaugh. If I ever want to know what people like you think, all I have to do is tune into FOX, but I don't see that day coming. It looks like you are finally waking up to the fact that not many people are backing Bush any more. You need to think faster than that. You will be an old man when Republicans get back in power, if they do. FOX News doesn't give you much to think with.
Hey there may be bugs on some of you mugs, but there ain't no bugs on me...Jerry's song!

Get a flea collar Jerry!
Let's see.  1993, no, I hated the clintons then and I hate them even more as their stories come out.  Still the same die hard republican I was.  Waited 8 years for clintons middle class tax plan, gave up.  I think he only kept 30% of his promises he made in 92.  But then he is a typical politician.  Why do i keep bringing up 1993?  very simple, we don't need socialized medicine in this country.  Hillary is a socialist who thinks she is big mama and american people just cannot or should not be allowed to think for themselves.  She is so dead set against free thinking it is frightening.  She makes Hugo Chavez look like a republican.  She is almost as secretive as George Bush and a lot of the things that people are angry at president bush(wiretaps for example), she has done and she is a hypocrite for saying she is against it whe she did it to her enemies.  My medical is fine, leave me alone and let her screw up everybody elses!
So Jerry, serious question...do you pay 100% of your healthcare costs or are you letting an employer or the taxpayers pick up the tab?

100% of the time the ones who think healhcare is great now aren't footing the full bills for their own healthcare.
People are so gullible and dumb.  they think Hillary is all that and no one bothers to notice she has no policy.
where's the beef, Hil.  why is no one asking where her proposals are and what her positions are?
Could it be because the press is giving her a free ride and building her up and this myth of her being so capable when in truth no one really knows where she stands.  the press can dog everyone else but, give Clinton a free ride without raising the uncomfortable facts about her.
where;s the beef, hil?  or is it that she is the one who is really the empty suit?
I'm back.
TX jerry hate to burst your bubble, but National Health Care is a done deal. It was decided where all major decisions like these are made. In the boardrooms of our major corporations. The CEO's have told Congress and the White House they are not going to continue to fund health care benefits. Reason, the major international corporation they compete against do not have the health care cost like ours do.
Example, Ford apparently builds a new model in Canada because its $1500 cheaper to build there due to the Canadian National Health Care.
So buckle up its coming like it or not.
Sorry Jerry, YOUR nightmare will begin soon when Hillary is elected. Ooooh, the time is growing near so you better prepare Jerry boy.
Jerry - You're killing me buddy. I admire your passion but I think you should think through some things before you write them. A recent example being "She makes Hugo Chavez look like a republican." I am certainly no fan of Hillary but she is certainly should not be compared to Mr. Chavez. All this kind of rhetoric does is distract people from having an actual discussion about healthcare because everyone will be commenting about what an idiot you are for saying that. Again, I admire your zeal, and I probably agree with more of your views then most people on this blog, but sometimes you shoot yourself in the foot because of your inflamatory rhetoric.
Jerry; Looks like you are living in the right place for your narrow-minded views.  You should listen to Ron Paul sometime.  You could really learn something.
HP.  In the case of Politicians, "You are judged by the company who keeps you." (I bet your Mom would like that one, too.)
Jerry does have friends, at least like-minded comrades. Getting lunch at the local supermarket today I saw a huge conversion van with the back covered with bumper stickers. The one that especially caught my eye said "Yes War is the Answer You Dirty Hippies." Other stickers disparaged Kerry, Hillary, Bill Clinton and others but there was one positive sticker saying "Elect Steele" (Republican former lieutenant governor of Maryland who unsucessfully ran for the senate).  I lingered for a while to see if I could get a glimpse of what that that kind of person looked like but then gave up and left; probably for the best, he/she may have been dangerous.
Health care in the US is in a death spiral and the insurance industry pays millions to keep a lid on that because they wish to ride the gravy train as long as possible.  Over half of all health care spending is already covered by some government entity...Medicare, Medicaid, government employee health insurance, or a bunch of other programs.  On the private side more and more people have no insurance, partly because insurance rates have increased 3-4 times the inflation rate for many years.  Those who do have insurance end up covering them which makes the rate increase even faster.  Then more drop out, and the cycle continues.  Death spiral.  Mandatory insurance isn't a solution because people of limited means don't have an extra $10,000-$12,000/yr to buy it, and insurance companies can decline coverage for any reason or none at all.  In spite of all the sneering about "Hillary Health Care" the doomsday scenarios of the task force have actually proven to be conservative!  In terms of GDP the US spends double on health care that of any other nation, yet we rank in the bottom half of all industrialized nations in every measure from infant mortality to longevity.  Health care is broken, and within a few years we will have no choice but to change it.  I suspect when that happens we'll end up with the government paying for catastrophic, emergency, and end of life care along with maybe some no-brainers like prenatal care, supplemented with private insurance for routine doctor visits and other needs.
I am still trying to understand why anyone actually believes for real that the democratic party will turn things around/make the country better. Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Seriously? Anyone think old Bill is partly to blame for where we are now?

I also don't get this whole 'will of the people' thing-- the majority only swung over 2 votes, right?

And socialized medicine is not a good answer for the country. I have a job, I save, and contribute to healthcare. How exactly does it get 'fixed'? By me paying more taxes and supporting the others who choose not to.

pfft:Name,in order,the two most recent former presidents and vice presidents to rake in speaking loot from engagements in Saudi Arabia.Also indicate former presidents Clintons role in Dubai.How much have both he and algore made from the Emirates and the Saudis?[I already have the answer to this.Do not bother to make me whip out Soros,who made millions off the said Saudis and stands to make even more by parking HALLIBURTON in,where else?Dubai].JIrby.You are in error.I do not get my news from FOX.Indeed,among a favoured tactic is to use your own liberal MSM media against you by quoting from SLATE,The New York and LA Times,REUTERS,the AP,HUFFINGTON,MOVEON,NEW YORKER,The San Francisco Chronicle,and other sources that are light years from FOX ideologically.Further,you are in control of no crystal balls,thus I need not worry overmuch about GOP chances of congressional house or executive control in the future,near or far.The fact remains that it took the GOP twelve years of control to reach their lowly pass.It took the Democrats only six months.
See, even Ryan doesn't like Jerry's comments.


SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=225610

First Read e-mail alerts


Sign up for First Read alerts
The first place for key political news and analysis

Syndicate This Site

Add First Read to your news reader:
live.com xml
myyahoo msn
bloglines newsgator
google