First Thoughts
Posted: Thursday, June 14, 2007 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
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Problem With The Dog Food? The most striking thing about the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is the damage that's been done to the GOP brand. Bush is not only unpopular (his approval rating is just 29% and favorability is only 32% -- both all-time lows for him). But his unpopularity also is dragging down the image of the Republican Party to its lowest level ever in this survey (28% positive rating). For better or worse, the GOP needs Bush to improve if they want the party's image to improve.
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Donkey Gong: While the GOP is dealing with historic image problems, all is not well for the Democrats. Congress' job rating (23%) is worse than Bush's. Maybe it's no coincidence that in the same week Congress is on the receiving end of bad ratings, congressional Democratic leaders are trying to restart a fight over Iraq policy with the White House. Looking ineffective on non-Iraq issues wasn't working, so now Reid-Pelosi are going back to the one issue that unifies the base. Note that Reid met with several liberal bloggers earlier this week.
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A “Changed” Woman: In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton has increased her lead over Obama from five points in April (36%-31%) to 14 points now (39%-25%). What has happened? The poll shows that Democrats give Clinton high marks for her knowledge and experience, and give Obama high marks for being “inspirational” and “exciting.” However, Clinton outscores Obama on the question of who brings real change to the direction of the country. How are the Obama folks allowing Clinton -- who served eight years as First Lady and another six-plus years as senator -- to be the “change” candidate?
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Enter Fred: The biggest news from the poll in the GOP presidential field is that Fred Thompson -- who still isn’t even in the race officially -- finishes second to Giuliani (29%-20%). McCain, meanwhile, is tied with Romney at 14%, which won’t help the Arizona senator much in parrying reporters who are eager to write his obituary. Also, it seems like Thompson’s possible entry into the race has perked up GOP voters. In April, just 53% of Republicans said they were satisfied with their presidential field. That number now is 73%.
VIDEO: Survey says: American is grumpy
*** The Other Thompson Twin: Yesterday, Tommy Thompson’s team issued a press release stating he would make a “major announcement” on the future of his presidential campaign via conference call -- which had everyone speculating he was dropping out of the race. As it turned out, though, he said he would be participating in the Ames straw poll. The near-campaign death experience for Thompson's camp is a reminder for all second-tier candidates that if they fail to make the first tier, their biggest press day will take place on the day they drop out. Tommy Thompson got 50+ reporters to show up for yesterday's conference call. He won't get that again until ...
*** On The Trail: Clinton, in New Hampshire, delivers the commencement speech at Manchester Central High School; Edwards reveals more details of his universal health-care policy in Michigan; Giuliani meets with the Delaware GOP at a Flag Day rally; Huckabee talks with Hannity on radio and TV; McCain continues his fund-raising blitz -- this time with three stops in Texas; Obama hits DC and North Carolina; Richardson raises money in Minneapolis; and Romney raises money in Chicago.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 4 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 11 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 57 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 81 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 127 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 144 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 155 days
Countdown to Iowa: 213 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 234 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 508 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 585 days
