New IA poll: Undecided takes the lead

Posted: Tuesday, June 19, 2007 3:55 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".

In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.

On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each.

With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback).

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Comments

Nobody is at 50%...or even 30%...this race is wide open for the top tier, and anyone could win. That being said, obviously McCain and probably Edwards are toast. Hasn't Edwards been living in Iowa for a few years now? Also, I don't think the 25% for Romney is good news after all the time and money that he has spent. The way things are going, by the end of super tuesday, we could have 2 or 3 candidates on each side with 25-30%. Wouldn't that be great.

Al, KS (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:27 PM)

WHY DO MAJOR NATIONAL POLLS SHWO GULIANI AND THOMPSON LEADING THE GOP PACK, YET EVERY TIME AN INDIVIDUAL STATE IS POLLED, ROMNEY COMES OUT WITH A CLEAR LEAD? I THINK HE IS, WITHOUT QUESTION, THE UNDERESTIMATED QUANTITY IN THIS RACE. HE EVEN RAISES MORE MONEY THAN HIS REPUBLICAN COUNTERPARTS.

CHRIS, ALBANY, NY (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:29 PM)

Gotta hand it to those Iowans. Don't commit to that Prom date to early. I have to agree. The leader IS someone who hasn't announced yet. Gotta keep that announcement in a lock box until just the right moment.

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:31 PM)

Its too early to know who you want to vote for but I do feel so so sorry for the GOP with Guiliani in the lead, hes such a jerk, I pray he is the nominee so the Democrats can get back in the white house and the middle class can get some help.

jane doe (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:36 PM)

This election cycle may have begun much too early, but Iowa remains one of its biggest deciding factors. The field has to narrow after Iowa; it is where the second-tier exerts its influence. No doubt each party's top three will remain in the race, but I suspect Dodd or Biden to drop out and perhaps Brownback. Richardson and Huckabee will likely stick around. Nonetheless, If every two-bit candidate waits until Illinois to announce an endorsement, America is going to have one giant aneurism. Please, we beg you Presidential wanna-bes, drop out as soon as you can!

Daniel Ross, Boston, MA (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:38 PM)

I would not throw in the towel so quickly that the democrats would lose in the national election if Clinton wins. Yeah, she's got high negatives and can be polorizing.....but just look at what they got to offer from the Republican's...3 morons who do not believe in evolution, gigolo Rudy who may not survive the primaries, a gq looking fip-flopping mormon, a once "strait talking" war hero and pandering Mccain, and now a so-called Reagan clone and a second rate actor who's coming to the rescue. If any Democrats can beat these Keystone cops...we are all SCRE...D

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:38 PM)

Less poll data..more candidate interviews.

CJ (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:39 PM)

John McCain at 6%!...wow, just wow

James, Columbia, MD (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:49 PM)

Juan--Hillary is no different then Fidel--she don't have that beard for one thing. other then that, she and Fidel pretty much have the same gameplan.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:50 PM)

You can call me Al! run please!!

mark, aurora, colorado (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:55 PM)

I don't know how a mormon has pulled off such an accomplishment, but you have to hand it to Romney--he seems to have it together. If he was not mormon, he would be the clear leader of the pack.

Jason Monroe, Lawrence, KS (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:58 PM)

The Republican party's only chance of maintaining its grip on the presidency and relevance in Congress in 2008 is when the Democrats nominate Hillary as the Democratic candidate.

Take it to the bank.

Johndroe (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 4:59 PM)

There is still a lot of time before the Iowa caucuses on January 18th and during that time news will happen.
It seems likely that things in Iraq will continue to spiral downward and that the news about global warming will get more alarming. While this will effect all the Republicans except the dark horse Ron Paul mostly equally, it could shake things up among the Democrats. Don't place your bets yet!

Mark Battey (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:11 PM)

GO HILLARY!

Lucy Ray, Atlanta, GA (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:12 PM)

"Did you ever have to make up your mind....?"

Dorothy (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:15 PM)

i couldn't agree more with Jane Doe's above comment. I recommend to anyone who even CONSIDERS supporting Giuliani to read the recent Rolling Stone magazine column titled: "Giuliani; Worse Than Bush." Crooked, amoral, hypocritical, egomaniacal, dishonest, racially downright insensitive, and these are the NICE things about him. Don't be fooled Iowans. McCain's been there for you in the past, and he will in the future.

Jim Kern, Costa Mesa, Ca. (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:16 PM)

28 years of Bushes and Clintons = banana republic

Chris, Douglas, GA (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:17 PM)

This is why the Iowa Caucuses are SO important. So many people already have their favorite candidates based on how the media portrays him/her. In Iowa, they want to shake your hand, look you in the eye and determine if they're being told the truth.

As a native Iowan, I applaud all the undecideds - it is WAY to early to fully know who is worthy of anyone's support.

RTS, Denver, Colorado (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:18 PM)

romney is a slick $nake oil salesman.

Terry, TX (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:18 PM)

I wouldn't be so sure, Johndroe, over half of the electorate are women. If gender is enough to get her half of them, with the other half split then she will have an unassailable lead. If she loses it will be because of her middle of the road position on the Iraq war.

Mark Battey (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:19 PM)

Flip-flopping Romney at 25% for Republican candidates? Wow, I'm suprised.

Romney has borrowed Kerry's "I was for (insert topic here) before I was against it" sign.

Colin, Milwaukee, WI (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:20 PM)

As a Republican voter dissatisfied with the GOP Presidential line-up, I can't help but wonder why someone in the pack hasn't stepped up (and why everyone else hasn't stepped down). Perhaps the Republican primary could do without a half-dozen "also-ran" candidates. Seriously folks, figure it out.

Daniel Ross, Boston, MA (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:25 PM)

Gee, more polls in Iowa - that seals it, eh? It's a done deal, you say? The punditocracy was thrilled when the campaigns began in November 2006, and they scored double when states began moving up their primaries/caucuses because they hope these two factors will narrow the field early.

I hope for quite the opposite; frontloading the primaries may allow the citizens of each state to express their frank opinions about who they'd like to see face off in November, thus resulting in neither party presenting a clear victor before the convention. While tiring for the candidates and the lazy media, it would be good for America to be spared the nastiness of the general election until after Labor Day. That's when general election campaigns should begin anyway. The rest is just an enormous waste of money that could be more productively invested to truly make America better. Hope on!

Charlie Tiller, St. Paul, MN (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:29 PM)

I vote for undecided too at this point. There are too many critical issues and problems that need solutions.
After six years years of mistakes under Two oil exectutives and Americas voice ignored we need to make darn sure we get it right. And if we feel the money or marketing is pushing us, then undecided is right on for now!
.... THE PEOPLE NEED TO WIN. ALL THE PEOPLE.....

Lloyd Brown (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:29 PM)

I am voting for Sen. Joe Biden. I agree with what he says on the issues. We need a president who knows foreign affairs. Obama knows nothing of economics and he wants to be president. Hillary Clinton is just a horrible pick. She wants a national health care but no country in the world has a good national health care system. This country is in serious trouble !!!!!!!

Ed Wright (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:31 PM)

Romney getting big busines lobby money----why is a good question to be asking.Otherwise he is a flim-flam man.Only took him 2 years to flip flop to the opposite he ever said he believed in.What will he do with the gold plates if he becomes the prez.Will they be on display in the oval room or the gold room?

HMT (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:34 PM)

Thie "red" state of Texas is now considered to be "blue" by a majority of voters. Watch for Obama or Hillary to squeak out over any of the Republicans. George W can come back to Texas, but he has insured he will be returning to a Democratic state.

Bill Archer, Boerne, Tx (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:34 PM)

"On The Cover Of Rolling Stone"-Dr. Hook

Still Crazy After All these Years (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:43 PM)

Hillary is a two faced fake,, Better said, she is a coat tail hanger!! What makes me puke is,, she constantly beating her self serving agenda's.. She has no Leadership qualities,, She hangs on the coat tail of her playboy degusting old man!! America , Just where the ""Hell"" did you loose your common sense??????????????????????????

John, Qsite AZ (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:46 PM)

Fred Thompson will be the next President and Jeb Bush will be the next Vice-President. Between them they can carry a solid South and West with enough electoral votes to send Miss Hilary to Costa Rico for her retirement. Who knows where Bill will then go, since his obligations will be over.

Waldo (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:51 PM)

I seriously doubt the legitmacy of polling data in the current era of new media - no matter WHO it says is winning. Check this out:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/melissalarson/Ctmj

malarson2 Beaverton, OR (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:54 PM)

Clinton, a self serving ""two faced"" liar!!! Only what serves her! Sucking up to the gender vote,, if there is a God,, Help America with we need a real leader, amen!

rich,AZ (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5:56 PM)

why is no one talking about ron paul? he is clearly the ONLY candidate with the country's best interest in mind. he seems to win the viewing polls at all of the debates based on his answers, yet no media coverage. hmm.

tomdoe (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:00 PM)

Thomas Jefferson or James K. Polk

Lloyd Brown (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:00 PM)

Barack and Hillary will hit a wall soon, as they are both counting on the far left base the carry them. I predict that Edwards comes up the middle and wins the nomination. Edwards will be the next President of the US, and there isn't a thing the GOP and their weak field of candidates can do to stop it.

Laura, Thousand Oaks, California (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:05 PM)

Gee, Mark, thanks for TELLING us who the winners and losers are instead of letting us decide for ourselves. So, Hilary, who has been running for three years and has more money and backing than God has less than "undecided", and Edwards is only 1 point behind, and Obama is three points behind Edwards despite being the media darling and anointed "only" challenger...and EDWARDS is the loser?????!!!! How much is Hilary paying you to feed us that crap? My conclusion, deduced through my own reasoning and logic, tell me that Edwards is the current winner.

Jim, Warren, Ohio (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:06 PM)

All "undecided" voters are probably fed up with endless pre-emptive war, illegal immigration, and out-of-control spending. The option? Vote for the only hero in a government of thieves and warmongers...VOTE RON PAUL!!!

Jeremy Snyder, Virginia Beach, VA (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:23 PM)

John, Qsite--
Note to self, November 2000: Common sense appears to be gone.! This can't last! Only temporary! 2004 just around the corner! Must hang on to remaining senses!

November 2004: AAHHHHRRGGG! Light is dimming! Fear monkeys all around me now. My God! They're wiping their A**es with the Constitution! Must hide! Must wait for sanity and common sense to return! Damn fear monkeys!

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:24 PM)

What baffles me is the religious hatred for Romney. By reading some of the comments posted you would think that we were back a few decades, I truly thought we were past that. Don't preach acceptance until you practice it!!! It is to bad all you are seeing in Romney is his religion, he has MUCH more than that to offer.

Stephanie, Tempe, AZ (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:25 PM)

tomdoe--Dude, you're not from around here are you?

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:28 PM)

we need a new face the once who honors to the american people, the once will working for american hard working people and the who willing to stand for all american and finally the once never ever take money from the big company such Ins, Oil, etc.... we need the prez care for ours own people instate of other nationally... we all are working very hard to survived, we never have a break from anything such as property tax, sale tax, paycheck tax, etc... Its never enought and never stope increasing. WHY ?? from first generation to second and 3rd and 4th generation, WHEN Enought ??. Finally all the candidate are CROOKS, they just lies to thier way up and for about everything....... Thanks,,,

This how I fell about what has happened to all of Us..

Garland Tx (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:31 PM)

Fred Thompson is a joke.

Joe Justice (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:32 PM)

Hey Juan 3 morons are better than 2 closet homosexuals and an uncle tom.

Jim, Warren, Ohio (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:33 PM)

Waldo: Fred Thompson will be the next President and Jeb Bush will be the next Vice-President.

Waldo, Jeb isn't going to play second to a man with no resume (read Fred). Fred will fizzle out when people find out he is a manager, not a leader.

Jack, Tempe AZ (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:46 PM)

"Lookin' For A Leader"-Neil Young

Still Crazy After All These Years (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:53 PM)

The system is broken. People now vote solely based on the media's presentation of a candidate. The media has shoved Hillary, Obama, and Giuliani so far down our throats that it will be nigh impossible for any other candidate to win. Americans need to take back their government from the media and the special interests. If you are a Republican, I'm begging you: Please please please vote for RON PAUL when the time comes.

Nate (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:57 PM)

Everyone has negatives except *one* candidate - WHO?? RON PAUL OF COURSE!! he's against the war, against the patriot act (the patriot act is dirt), against big government spending (YEA YEA YEA) return the power to the states and let them regulate themselves... Yes to Ron Paul - he has no negatives attached!!!

Devils.advocate (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:58 PM)

When Bush father failed America,who did they turn to? Clinton.Since the inception of the baby bush (W) into the presidential limelight,how many democrats have tried? 2,how many have failed? all.George W has failed America again and it will take another Clinton to regain the mantle from Republicans.Watch Hillary steal it from them.

Chined Mba Dallas TX (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 6:58 PM)

The big suprise for me is that Hillary is making such a good showing there. Edwards should be the leader, since he has been there for long and times.

lylepink,huntington, wv (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:08 PM)

Doesn't really matter who the GOP candidate is in 08, the Democrats could run Donald Duck and beat anyone in the GOP field. Americans have had it with Bush and his cronies...GOP will be going into hybernation for a lot of years

Mel, Oceanside Ca (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:09 PM)

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