New IA poll: Undecided takes the lead

Posted: Tuesday, June 19, 2007 3:55 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".

In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.

On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each.

With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback).

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Comments

This poll is not all that reliable. I think it's UNDERESTIMATING Edwards, Richardson and even the UNDECIDEDS!!! Richardson is at 10% minimum, Edwards at 25% and Clinton and Obama are likely about 15%. Clinton/Obama are sinking fast. Neither has any shot to win Iowa and they know it. Undecideds are at about 30%!!!! Say goodnight Hillary Obama!!! GO BILL RICHARDSON!!! No troops in Iraq!!! No residual forces!!

carriejean (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:10 PM)

Doesn't really matter who the GOP candidate is in 08, the Democrats could run Donald Duck and beat anyone in the GOP field. Americans have had it with Bush and his cronies...GOP will be going into hybernation for a lot of years

Mel, Oceanside Ca (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:15 PM)

Romney by far is the most intelligent out of the lot. His weakness is the percieved flip flopping. Once the debates become more frequent with less candidates, Romney will out shine the rest. McCain and Rudy are done with. Everyone knows what they are about and have low percentages. Romney is almost a unknown and has the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will will take a long and sustained lead by the end of the summer.

Ben Nevis- Thousand Oaks, California (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:16 PM)

You ask when did America lose it's common sense? When we elected Bush to a second term.

steve lembeck (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:23 PM)

Go Hillary! Don't worry about those men afraid of a woman president! I think you'll do as good a job as any of the other candidates.

Marlon (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:26 PM)

Politics is like fishing, you go out put your line in the water and sometimes you catch a fish, but in the case of the present canidates on both sides of the isle I believe we are only seeing snake oil salesmen, Hillary inculded. The ture canidates are yet to jump into this sorry mess called a campaign. What really scares the hell out of me, is our media has bought into the canidates running instead of asking hard questions of these people. They are caught up in the media themselves. This country needs all businesses to continue to move ahead, without them there are not going to be any jobs. Let Hillary get in and pass a national health care program and we are all going to be in the crapper. What country that has a national health care program has good health care, NONE, why do you think the Canadians come to the States?????

SCARED, Fresno, Ca. (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:29 PM)

Ron Paul has the most consistent voting record of any of the candidates, Republican or Democrat. Non-intervention, limited government, less taxes, more freedom...it all sounds good to me. If you're against the Iraq War he's your only Republican choice.

DBW (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:51 PM)

If you aren't considering Ron Paul you aren't doing your homework.

Lori, Colorado (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 7:58 PM)

Many of these posts are troubling - it sounds like a bunch of sheep. Doesn't anyone care about upholding and functioning within the bounds of the Constitution? Unless you people want to this very ill Republic to congeal into a socialist police state, you ought to start giving some long-overdue thought to Rep. Ron Paul. Paul is an intelligent, informed, consistent, scrupulous patriot.

Mike, Hermosa Beach (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 8:02 PM)

SCARY!! That’s how I sum up several of these comments. These are the same folks who are going to help elect our next President?

Al Anderson, Sartell, MN (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 8:08 PM)

People will keep underestimating Fred and Fred will keep rising in the polls. Fred is the real deal and will easily handle any of the Democrats. People that see Fred, like Fred. Fred's rise in the polls is unheard of, despite the media trying to downplay it. Fred has bypassed the media and his campaign is being run largely through the web and talk radio.

Jon (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 8:13 PM)

I supported John Edwards in the last presidential election as he appealed to my populist leanings. It will take a leader to get us out of the hole dug by the neo-cons both on the world stage and economically here at home. The corporate media will attempt to set the political stage and determine our choices. They prefer candidates that can be controlled. Most of the candidates would sell their souls to be president. Do we have so few citizens with ability that our country can only be managed by a Bush or a Clinton? I am a lifelong democrat, but you can't tell the difference between dems. and reps. If given the opportunity I will cast my vote for Ron Paul or Micheal Bloomberg.

frank derossett, Auxier, Ky. (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 10:00 PM)

Yeah - if anyone wants to know why Iowa voters are undecided, it's because Al Gore hasn't announced yet. Once he does - the numbers will look more like this:
Gore 45%
Clinton 20%
Obama 18%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 2%

Cris Nolan (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 10:13 PM)

Mike Huckabee is rising. He is starting to increase his buzz, and is getting more endorsements. Recently, a home schooling organization endorsed his candidacy. That's big for these primaries.

Watch out for Huckabee... he's going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Joseph (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 10:51 PM)

Why this poll does not include Ron Paul, He has won by a 60% or higher all debates polls, and still the Media does hide his name. What are you afraid of? the truth? With all respect for all other candidates I say Ron Paul is the only one who will get the usa out of this Bush mess.

ROBERT V, ORLANDO, FLORIDA (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 11:12 PM)

Ron Paul makes the most sense. He actually answers the questions instead of talking out the side of his mouth like the rest of them. Why is it that the mainstream media ignore him? Because he fights for individual liberties and the rights of the people instead of big government and elites. Ron Paul is the only candidate that will make this country great again.

Keith, Chicago, IL (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 11:31 PM)

Since when does this poll make Edwards the "loser?"
They actually PAY you for this moronic commentary?

John Hammond (Sent Tuesday, June 19, 2007 11:55 PM)

Just watch. Joe Biden's is going to come from behind to take Iowa for the DEMS. Talk about "presidential!"

The guy is terrific. He has everything it takes to make a great president!

Steve Smith, Temple CIty, CA (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 12:41 AM)

I'll vote for man, woman, white, black, whatever - whoever will be the best leader for this country. I will not, under any circumstances, vote for Hillary.

What is sad is that if Hillary loses - the nomination or the presidency - there will be countless articles about how this country can't elect a woman to the presidency. Come on! It needs to be the right woman! Not some nut-job who happens to be female.

David, WA (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 1:53 AM)

Why are these polls important? They drive home the fact that only candidates that get media airtime will be the ones they talk about. Let's get real and vote for a real candidate. Forget third-rate actors, authoritarian ex-mayors, and former first ladies. If you REALLY, REALLY care about what is going on now (you're on this blog) then go find out something about Ron Paul. He's the man to beat if America wakes up in time.

Garrett Babb Indianapolis, IN (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 2:55 AM)

Does it really matter who wins as much as who's capable of unscrewing all of Bush's brilliant light bulbs? One guess. They're not republican!

George Washington (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 3:18 AM)

The question is, why is so much money from big business going to Romney and if he was voted in would it influence his decisions like big oil money influenced Bush/Cheney. Will he open the borders and put in the toll transit road allowing Mexico to flood Texas and our nation with trucks and goods on a high speed path into our heartland? Will he give the toll road building bid to the Spanish? What is it about Texans that when they get into office they inflict as much .... on the Americans who voted them into office.
Certainly not the John Wayne way of doing things.

CJL, Woodland Hills, CA (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 6:52 AM)

If it is a "D" or an "R" who wins this upcoming election ... America loses ... You people who think everything will be better and change if Hillary or another Democrap get in are blind.Absolutely fooling yourself.After this election it will all be the same old business as usual.

War will go on, poverty will continue, money in politics won't change, corruption and scandals will be present as always.The military will receive BILLIONS while food lines get longer and longer.

Hunger, need and famine will remain unchecked. Hillary voted for war, Obama funded war, and they all owe their corporate masters.All of them.

TERRY SEATTLE WA (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 8:01 AM)

"FOOLS RUSH IN"

H P Boston (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 8:06 AM)

best ignore the polls, they are for sale to the highest bidder, go vote for whomever you think would be best for the country

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 9:02 AM)

I agree. John Edwards will take it after all. Stay above the fray, John and let Hillary and Obama duke it out. I just wish the pundits would quit trying to make peope think that because someone is African-American, such as myself, they would automatically vote for Barak Obama, OR, because they are a woman, such as myself, they would automatically vote for Hillary.

JaneDoe, Swannanoa, NC (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 9:10 AM)

Marlon / voting for someone just because they were born with a vagina has to be one of the least important attributes of a presidential candidate, hillary can't win the general election and if people lose site of that fact the whitehouse will be handed to rudy, the dems need to win, so before you go to the polls and vote for hillary to show all the evil white males how powerful and so on woman are think about who your really voting for, the absolute worst white male that could possibly get the job

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 9:25 AM)

ron paul is not seen because he hasn't been bought by corporate america, if you are not owned by corporate america you can't be president

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 9:29 AM)

Well, its clear what the seven volunteers in the Ron Paul campaign have been doing this morning, lol. But at least you are true volunteers. If the campaign was paying you guys a quarter for each post, that would just about use up the warchest.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 11:45 AM)

I am also voting for Joe Biden.

Virginia (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 4:17 PM)

Here's my analysis of the GOP
Rudy - We only like him because we think he can win the national election. He's the 'I'll settle for...." guy, not a "real" Republican.
Romney - Looks good now, but will lose the base when everyone stops playing nice. Accusations that he used barely legal actions to enact gay marriage in Mass. will take him out of the race, hard and fast.
McCain - Past his prime, too unfocused, all done.
Huckabee - I like this guy, but I keep forgetting he's running. I pay attention and love elections. Despite that, Huckabee can't get my attention. Don't blame the media either. If you want to know why, see Fred notes below.
Ron Paul - I only bothered including him because some folks asked. He has the typical Libertarian problem. The crowd promoting this guy take any credibility away. At the Manchester debates I was approached by a guy who could seriously have used a shave and shower, wearing (I swear) circus pants who got rude with me when I said that I was not real happy about the "9/11 was an inside job" guys. He went back over to the loud guy in the pirate hat and went back to their chanting. I felt bad for the very normal, reasonable kid who approached me. He asked who we were there for. I said we were with Fred Thompson. The kid started to leave. I stopped him. I said look kid, make your pitch. If you can't get votes from the other camps, you can't win. He got through the whole thing pretty well. if not for the parading freak show there to represent Paul, I might have been interested.
Fred Thompson - The free media coverage is nice, but he doesn't need it. Fred has volunteer organizations in over 20 twenty states. It's not just an internet thing, these are "boots on the ground" ready to mobilize groups. Some states are already attending events and distributing material. Why are they doing it? Fred loves America, and he can convey that to an audience. Yeah, it's that simple. Election science is overrated.

Steve Smith (Sent Wednesday, June 20, 2007 8:54 PM)

Steve, very good post. I agree with you about Ron Paul - you nailed it. He caught my interest, but then you see how little his supporters know about what they're trying to do. I also agree with Huckabee, but think I know the answer to that one. He has everything working for him except two factors - didn't come in as a perceived front runner, so he has to overcome that headstart by others, and he has a funny sounding name. In fact, I can't think of anything you said I disagree with.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Thursday, June 21, 2007 10:48 AM)

Hillary, Obama and Edwards are losers in the fall.
Joe Biden is a sure winner, and our next President.
He is definitely the most qualified candidate on either side or any independent.

Bob Woloszyn, Hobart, In. (Sent Thursday, June 21, 2007 10:13 PM)

Huckabee is making a move, and this is without spending any money. His fundraising haul will be better this quarter. If Thompson is not all things to all people like everyone thinks right now then Huckabee will be in great shape to make the final 3-4 and possibly be the conservative alternative to Rudy/Romney.

JDR (Sent Friday, June 22, 2007 11:48 AM)

Keep your eyes on Mike Huckabee!!!

Joe Smith (Sent Saturday, June 23, 2007 4:09 PM)

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Governor Mike Huckabee has overtaken "front runner" John McCain in Iowa. Huckabee received 7% support in the poll, his highest poll ranking to date.

THE NUMBERS - REPUBLICANS
Mitt Romney, 25 percent
Fred Thompson, 17 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 15 percent
Mike Huckabee, 7 percent
John McCain, 6 percent
Sam Brownback, 6 percent

Mike's intelligent discourse on the issues paired with his feverish pace of talk-shows, fundraisers, and one-on-one meetings with voters is starting to pay big dividends!
Mike Huckabee has now broken into the TOP FOUR candidates in Iowa. At 7% polling support, with 21% still undecided, the Iowa straw poll looks to boost Huckabee into the top tier of the national election.
With Rudy, McCain, and Fred Thompson pulling out of Iowa, that puts Huckabee at the #2 spot on the Ames poll 2 months out!

Paulie Walnut (Sent Saturday, June 23, 2007 4:15 PM)

I agree with the other posts noting that Huckabee is rising quickly. At this rate he will be way ahead by December. His performance in the debates has been phenomenal.

Joseph Schmagegi (Sent Saturday, June 23, 2007 11:00 PM)

In the second tier candidates, also watch out for Tommy Thompson. This last Sat. he won the Linn County Straw Poll with 33% of the vote. Linn County is Iowa's second biggest county that includes the city of Cedar Rapids. This might help him with positive press coverage in the state of Iowa and help him place either second or third in the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 11

Sporty Kid (Sent Wednesday, June 27, 2007 1:08 AM)

Will the media embarass itself again? Last year, no one in the summer gave either Kerry or Edwards a chance. Instead, they went for hype over substance and rooted for a madman like Howard Dean. But America proved them wrong. America will continue to deny the media from choosing their candidates for them. Neither reagan, carter, nor clinton (BILL) were considered frontrunners and well...
Come Iowa n' New Hampshire time, CNN's chant for John Hillabama and Rudy McRomneyson will soon be silenced

Richard Lyle, Charleston (Sent Wednesday, June 27, 2007 2:51 PM)

On the ground in Iowa, the Richardson train is picking up steam, Dodd is a dud, Edwards and Obama are holding steady, but watch for a shift when Hill/Bill express rumbles through.

Gark IC (Sent Monday, July 02, 2007 11:59 AM)

ditto what steve said

steve lembeck (Sent Thursday, July 26, 2007 3:08 AM)

Romney is in the lead and I believe that it will stay that way.
All of you who knock Romney and say that he's a flip-flopper or have nothing to state but negativity are out of line. First and foremost he's well capable of being the President.
He's smart, well informed and he can certainly reach to the American people the best out of every GOP member.
Watch the next GOP debate and you'll see. Plus more than likely the Democrats will choose either Clinton or Obama. And put them up against who would you like to see run our Country?
Joe Biden is clearly the person out of the Democrats that I would choose but it's a far chance for him to win. But overall I have to go with Romney, if you listen to his agenda he sounds good and he also made quite a positive turn-around for his state and the olympics of course.
Yea he flip flopped on pro-life, but at least he had a good explanation why he changed and AS IS RIGHT NOW he's pro-life and for the people who ARE pro-life that's is indeed his stance.

James M. DC, Pa (Sent Thursday, August 02, 2007 11:44 PM)

What do we expect from our leaders?
Especially our President?

1) Intelligence
2) Experience in ALL phases of government
3) Strength
4) Respect from world leaders
5) Diplomacy
6) Command of issues
7) Solutions to problems that face our nation
8) Honesty
9) Integrity
10) Respect and trust from his peers
11) Respect and trust from the people who follow him

There is only one candidate running today who meets ALL of the criteria above. Our next President:
Joseph Biden

Please watch a video I produced to show my support for Senator Biden. Share the link with family and friends, and ask them to do the same.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=OtGCaqOdIJ4

James DiSalvatore NY, NY (Sent Monday, October 01, 2007 3:03 PM)

Al Gore will endorse Obama, I predict. What would that say about team Clinton?

Adam (Sent Tuesday, October 16, 2007 2:20 PM)

This is not the same Romney we had in Massachusetts. Not that I like the new conservative Romney, but he obviously made a calculated decision to appeal to the conservative majority, and it's working because outside of MA people do not know his record. It's perfect CEO type thinking.

Adam (Sent Tuesday, October 16, 2007 2:23 PM)

Ron PAUL IS BEING IGNORED BY THE MEDIA

RON BUCEY, CLEVELAND, OHIO (Sent Thursday, November 08, 2007 12:56 PM)

Hillary doesn't deserve to be President.She's to weak to keep us safe from terrorists.She doesn't respect women,look at all the women that Bill's been said to rape.
And she will ruin our economy by the way she's talked about raising taxes.Don't give Bill any credit for our economy in the 90's,that credit goes to Newt Gingrich and the Republican congress.When Bill first took office,he raised taxes and sent the nation into a recession,Newt and the Republican congress are the ones that got taxed lowered and got the economy going.

Bryon Harrelson (Sent Wednesday, November 21, 2007 11:47 PM)

Mike Huckabee is the man.

Bryon Harrelson (Sent Wednesday, November 21, 2007 11:51 PM)

I can not beleive that Huckabee is in the lead when he says things like he wants to seal the border. That is the dumbest idea I have ever heard. Would he still be in the lead if Iowa was a border state where they actually understand something about the immigration issue?

Josh W., Michigan (Sent Sunday, December 09, 2007 11:45 AM)

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