ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, June 20, 2007 9:18 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , , ,

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** A Boon For The Democrats? New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg capped off a VERY busy political day yesterday by filing paperwork changing his voting status from Republican to unaffiliated. Why now? Bloomberg's move now means every national poll will begin including him in three-way match-ups, and that in and of itself forces the Beltway chattering class to begin assessing the "who does he hurt" between now and the end of the primary season. And it gives him an opportunity to begin actually exploring a run by traveling to states that don't touch oceans. Looking at voting patterns and the strength of both parties' bases, a true three-way race may help the Democrats more than the Republicans. Why? It’s simple -- the South. The irony of a Bloomberg candidacy is that it could make the Democrats more competitive in the South because their 35% base vote in the South is made up of die-hard Democrats.

*** Short-Term Trouble for Rudy?

But that's for the long term. In the short term, the person hurt the most right now by a potential Bloomberg bid may be the guy most responsible for getting him elected mayor in the first place: Giuliani. Bloomberg's claims of successes in managing New York City are subtle jabs at Giuliani's two terms as mayor. Also, Bloomberg's interest means there will be more comparisons to Giuliani's days as mayor before 9/11, and that gets Giuliani off message a bit.

*** Un-Raveneling: Speaking of Rudy, we wondered if he was going to have a bad day yesterday after that Newsday piece (about his non-attendance on the Iraq Study Group) and the news of Bernie Kerik’s disappointment about the distance between him and Giuliani (“I understand it, but inside it's killing me”). But we had no idea that in one day his campaign would lose top Iowa adviser Jim Nussle, who’s heading over to OMB, and also South Carolina state chairman Thomas Ravenel, who was indicted for cocaine distribution. The good news for the campaign: It all happened in just one day.

*** More Boos?

Already this morning, Clinton took her turn addressing the liberal “Take Back America” conference. At last year's conference, she received boos for her views on Iraq -- and she got them again this morning. NBC’s Carrie Dann reports that Clinton entered and exited the stage with applause. But when she launched into her Iraq bit, she was booed.  She plugged the fact that she voted against the supplemental, but her line about how the troops have "done what they went to do" prompted a mix of boos and those trying to drown them out.

*** Other Speakers: As of this writing, Kucinich was set to follow Clinton at the “Take Back” confab. Also speaking today will be Speaker Nancy Pelosi (9:15am ET), DNC chair Howard Dean (1:30 pm), and Jesse Jackson. (Filmmaker Michael Moore was supposed to speak too, but NBC’s Dann reports that his plane was delayed and thus he won’t be addressing the group.) What’s more, at 3:00 pm, the Politico and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg will announce the presidential straw poll results from the liberal attendees.
 
*** “Once, Twice, Three Times A …”: Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Bush today will issue the third veto of his presidency -- and second one on stem cells -- when he rejects the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act, which provides more federal financing for the science. Advisers say Bush will make remarks on his veto at 2:25 pm ET, but won’t actually veto the legislation in public. Meanwhile, congressional Democrats will hold a press conference this afternoon following the president’s veto announcement.

*** On The Trail: Brownback is back in Iowa, hitting six more towns; Giuliani speaks in Iowa, then raises money in New York City; McCain addresses the Florida Broadcasters in Palm Beach, then helps a county GOP committee raise money; Obama raises money in Ohio and Pittsburgh before heading back to DC; and Fred Thompson spends his final day across the pond in London.

*** And…: If you missed checking in with First Read during "Super Tuesday," you missed comprehensive coverage of the entire day in politics, from the AFSCME forum and the Take Back America conference to Fred Thompson's London appearance, Jim Nussle's new job, and so much more. Bottom line, bookmark First Read and check in often so you don't miss a thing.   
 
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 6 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 52 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 74 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 122 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 139 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 150 days
Countdown to Iowa: 218 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 229 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 503 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 580 days

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Comments

I wish the hell we could veto Bush. God I hate that  poor excuse of a human garbage can.
I hope he finds the need for stem cell based medicine
some day and it just ain't there.

hillary's statement about how the troops have "done what they went to do" is factual, they were sent to remove hussein and his goverment, the question that needs answered is why they didn't leave after they accomplished they're mission
Factual or not, her statement tends to lend cover to a mal-practicing President and legitimacy to an illegitimate mission. She would have done better to praise the performance of wonderful troops placed in a bad situation created by a half baked foreign policy of a failed Administration. This President does not deserved to be walked to the Helicopter by the next President.  He should be shown the kitchen door by the White House butler.
MK,MO, Iraq has the world's second-largest oil reserves. If this were not a fact, I can bet you that the troops would have been home a long time ago. Futhermore, the top ten oil companies reported spending $33,173,092 lobbying the Congress and the Executive branches in 2005. This does not include campaign contributions. In the end, the oil companies are now sitting pretty. Reporting historic record profits .....

True enough about Clinton.  The war would be "weeks rather than months", "a cakewalk", and all the rest.  Our military is so capable it's fair to assume success unless their civilian handlers are complete nincompoops.  Mission Accomplished on that last.
Guess you can tell this is the national convention for the extreme far left when Hillary was booed during her speech and mentioned iraq.  I wonder how pelosi will be handled, since the pink broads have been living in her offices at one time or another?
GOOD MORNING ! JUST REMEMBER "GONZO GATE" IT JUST WILL NOT FADE AWAY. HEY KARL COULD YOU SEND ME A E-MAIL I LOST YOURS.
Well said, Gary from Indiana. The fact that the press and some politicians continue to misinform the people by saying if we leave we will be defeated in this war is just plain wrong. Our boys won the war; we invaded the country, removed the leader, and established a new government. Darn, if that is not winning, I don't know what is. The occupying forces are facing a determined movement within the country that is causing a large number of casualties, unrelated to the war itself. Our governemnt failed to place policies and goals that were attainable for our forces occupying Iraq and therefore it is our government who is failing, not our boys.
Anyone watch frontline endgame last night? Turns out Runsfeld was the democrat's best friend when it came to getting out early.
Still no dedicated Iraq thread. Does it now become the elephant in the living room for both wings of the Redemlicrat party? Both wings seem to embrace it's inevitability and nobility to various degrees with the notable exception of "Zero Option" Bill Richardson and Ron Paul. The perennial Kucinich candidates have never been afraid to take a position but I suppose moral courage is easy when you know that "it can't be won the way the game is run".
But lest we forget the pachyderm perched on the sofa of our political living room, here is an offering from the ground in Iraq by an Iraqi reprinted from the BBC.
The elephant trumpets. Own it.
MAGICAL THINKING AND THE LOST COUNTRY
Salam Pax
20 Mar 07, 08:44 AM
Baghdad blogger Salam Pax is providing regular despatches and thoughts as part of Newsnight's in-depth coverage of Iraq four years after the invasion.
"One good thing to come out of George Bush’s reluctant acceptance that the power of Magical Thinking cannot make the situation in Iraq better is that we are now allowed to deal with issues which used to be political blind spots. The US administration is finally out of denial when the plight of about 4 million Iraqi refugees, displaced internally and abroad, is mentioned.
Although this has been going on since the start of the war we only recently learnt that “the international community had been overwhelmed by the problem, and needed to do much more to help”. Dear readers; behold the power of Magical Thinking (and maybe some political arm twisting), it can make millions of people vamoose only to suddenly reappear all over the place looking for refuge.
Before you panic and shout “close the gates, the Iraqis are coming!” you should know that half of those displaced are still within Iraq’s borders and the rest have only made it to neighbouring Arab countries.
Inside Iraq the population is being rearranged according to religious and ethnic lines. Many of those internally displaced are Sunni families fleeing from Shia areas or vice versa, a Kurdish family still living in the Arab region has become a bit of an oddity. Very soon the partition of Iraq will become a de facto situation, many say it already is. And frankly in this moment of time any measure which might stop the bloodshed, regardless how initially undesirable, is welcome.
But after a year of building up to this three state solution suddenly the US administration loses heart, decides the partition is not that good an idea and starts pulling strings to stop what was seen a year ago as inevitable. It is amazing how many change-of-hearts the US administration has had over the past four years.
We’ve seen it all. From the vilification of all Sunnis and running fast to embrace the Shias until they hit a wall called Moqtada with a spectacularly loud smack (Newsweek called him the most dangerous man in Iraq - and we foolishly thought that was Zarqawi), to hailing the partition of Iraq as the answer to our troubles only to hit a wall in the shape of Iran this time. The thought of Iran using an Iraqi Shiite state to expand its power in the region got the world so frightened we Iraqis had to go full throttle backwards and work on ways to live harmoniously together again.
In the mean time our esteemed Iraqi politicians were too busy squabbling for spoils or following narrow minded sectarian agendas instead of stopping the Americans from using us as lab rats for their failed experiment in democracy.
An old Iraqi song says “If you’ve lost a lover, maybe in a year you’ll forget. If you’ve lost gold, from gold markets you can replace it. But if you’ve lost a country where do you go to find a new one?”
There isn’t an Iraqi, whether abroad or in Iraq, who will not feel a pang of pain at hearing this song, this is what we all feel today. Between American indecision and Iraqi incompetence 26m people feel like they have lost their country."
Gary Schear:  Thanks for the Iraq post.  The lack of one here is a gaping hole in First Read coverage.  Your posts have kept me reading.  In fact, every time I read one of yours posts I think of writing, but I think better of it.  You usually have it covered so well it saves the rest of the readers the burden of another Mark Thieme screed. Keep up the good work.
Now that the Sunnis have some sort of agreement with us to go after AQ I wish the idiots would send Exxon Mobil into the Sunni area, and find their own damn oil. Would change even more if they knew their future didn't depend on hand outs from the other two groups. I'm also sick of "some people" here pretending that the Sunnis going after AQ isn't a good thing for Iraq & the US.
Since First Read will not provide a daily Iraq thread, why don't we just start one daily under First Thoughts? That way, we can all stay up to date on this debacle.
Great idea..nuf of too many stinking candidates to hash out each day. thanks Desmond
So sounds like the bushwacker wants MORE troops!
nomination of hillary = president giuliani
Dave--It's a great thing Dave but we have absolutely no control over it. They may kill em all or chase em away and then they can use the new weapons we supplied them
against us. Then again they may become the best of brothers again based on some unknowable whim of the Arab mind and share the weapons we gave them. Then again the Sunni insurgents could use their liaison with our forces for intelligence purposes. Why would you trust these people Dave? We are infidel invaders in their country. I know how I would treat invaders of my country. The VC taught us that one years ago.
Of course, if you are talking about the Sunni cleric that met with al Sadr's group a couple of weeks ago, you may be talking about a differnt group of Sunnis.How do we know?
Mark Thieme: Thanks  for the kind words but none of us, especially you, can afford to stay quiet now. Apparently the Redemlicrats are intent on not being too hasty in correcting idiot mistakes and saving some poor mother's son from unnecessary death or dismemberment. The best insight into this tragedy comes from people like Salem who blog from the belly of the beast. (Green Zone NOT) I don't expect to find that here in this Corporate controlled twilight zone but when you search for it, it is there. We need to bring that input back here into the wading pool of the Blogosphere where we can shine lights on the maggots and let no one's appetite be spared.
That's why I Third (H P beat me to second) Desmond's motion to use First Thoughts as a default Iraq thread. After all, as long as we have troops dieing in our name it should be every Americans First Thought...and last
Desmond, et al, ya'll count me in on the improvised Iraq thread.
Gary, Precisely.  Someone once told me, a tad cynically, that if one endeavors to change a culture, the odds are always with the culture.  We see that so vividly, brutally, tragically, in Iraq.  We are going to lose.  It's over. We got suckered by our own delusions of grandeur (again).  When I bring that advice (that the culture almost always wins) home, I wonder what, if anything at all, can make even a dent in the lobotomizing, oligarchic, structure that owns and operates, America, Inc.  I read yesterday about a prominent astrophysicist who can't read Orwell any more.  He says it is now so passe as to be "quaint."  It has already happened. "American Idol" is our national tranquilizer and Paris Hilton, Joan of Arc.  Has the well been so poisoned by group-think that no matter what is said here, no matter how eloquently,it will be little noted and not long remembered?
YES Gary you are correct this is definitly a Corporate
twilight zone. They set the tone in the AM and we suck it up. ALL the news THEY report is totally wrinkled! I always consider the source and believe
1/2% of the fluff and crapola. Color me dubious.
Mark Thieme, perhaps the words will not be remembered but the soldiers dead and injured will not be forgotten by their families.We should remember them everyday in this set upon path to endless war by this administration.
Desmond--A daily Iraq thread would be a good idea. Here's another: One on Katrina recovery. This is a substantive issue that needs to be talked about. We cannot afford to let New Orleans and the rest of Louisiana and Mississippi slip down the tubes due to Bush Administration neglect, dis-interest by presidential candidates of both parties, and the fact that to a mainstream media obsessed with this early-starting campaign, any state outside of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and others with early presidential contests is part of a Forgotten Zone. Anyone wanting to know why New Orleans matters so much and why all Americans--not just those in that city and the surrounding area--have an interest in New Orleans' recovery needs to visit the website www.friendsofneworleans.org. I just visited that website and found out something interesting: GOP Presidential candidate Tommy Thompson sits on Friends of New Orleans' board. This makes me wonder: why have we never heard anything about his being on this board, or what Tommy Thompson would do, if elected, to spur New Orleans' recovery? I'd like to see First Read start a regular thread on Katrina recovery, or at least, "Disaster Politics," like it has had in the past.  
Our culture is getting more simple minded every year...I'm amazed that what was once viewed as foolish, trite, and unreasonable is actually debatable now....whether it's politics or media.
I see our Iraq policy took a hit this week, what with Shi'ites bombing Sunni mosques in retaliation for Sunnis bombing Shi'ite mosques. My question is... what idiot got our military in a situation in which their win-loss record would depend on Sunnis and Shi'ites learning to play nice?
Clinton's statement was valid, why wont people just give her chance. She said nothing bad, why are they booing her?
Olivia,what you say is true. But, have you seen any substantive blogs recently about domestic issues at all? I haven't.When hurricane season is soon upon us, we'll all be wondering why the National Weather Service's budget was cut.
American Idol, and Paris Hilton. I'd really like to know who watches, or cares about this trash. Who buys the magazines that support this sick ass culture? It would be interesting to see how that one broke down over party lines.  If NY & LA vanished tomorrow this country would be way better off.  Toss DC in there too.  
Olivia, I always appreciate your reminding readers of the apocalypse on the Gulf Coast.  However, just in case you think the gang here at Global General Electric are paying any attention to you, the answer is: No Way. They think they are doing you a favor by printing your posts("freedom of speech" and all). These folks at MSNBC (speed) read your post and move on pretty quickly.  They are completely motivated, by their own programmed thought processes and the Pavlovian reward system utilized by their masters, to disregard anything that goes too far in uncovering a deeper reality.  That stuff don't sell.  Our news has to be cute, entertaining, and glazed like a donut. Look at the headline stories in any news magazine, newspaper, or even here on the MSNBC home page.  We get scandal served up in buckets into the trough.  We get the Today Show on CBS News.  "Personal interest," heartwarming Hallmark cards and tips on gardening: Ka-ching!  New Orleans and the Gulf are old news.  Stale.  The answer to your question is: No Way in Hades.  Desmond, you make a good point, but you and Shear and Thieme and HP, and yes, dear Olivia (much admired here), are whistling in the wind on this blog. Love your idealism, but don't expect too much more than a chance to vent.  Your heartfelt prose and poetry are the sideshow.
BUSH IS A PIG HEADED, STUBBORN, "IDIOT". END OF STORY! SOON UNDER HIS LEADERSHIP WE WILL BECOME A 3RD. WORLD COUNTRY.
Olivia, some good news to report out of the liberal controlled congress.  Senator Mary Landrieu (d) from Louisiana received $100,327,000 for waterway projects for her state.  One project, the J. Bennett Johnston waterway received $13,500,000, even though only 4% of Louisiana commercial traffic use it.  Also, the inner harbor canal lock received $11,250,000, even though it has been ruled ineffective due to changing water traffic.  The majority of the money that Louisiana received from the democratically controlled congress has nothing to do with flood control or repairs to levees.  So when the next hurricane hits and probably will wipe out New Orleans altogether, you can thank Senator Mary Landrieu (d) from the great state of Louisiana, who did nothing but waste taxpayer money for the state of Louisiana
Olivia--Agreed. One can almost hear the snapping of fingers as the various media carnival barkers demand that we look away from the madness and destruction in the world and sit back and enjoy our morning Lattes while they tell us what they think we need to know. First Thoughts seems to me a more than appropriate forum to express all of our views, not just our views on the topics presented by the official moderators or by self appointed ones. This is supposed to be an interactive medium. Rage away Olivia. Citizens that care give me hope.
Dave,Tn--Agreed. I Don't agree with most of your opinions but I appriciate the fact that you have them. What is it with the 6% to 7% of people in every poll who "don't know' or "aren't sure"? Baffles the hell out of me.
Desmond--Recently I ran across a blog called the Huffington Post which addresses a good potpourri of topics including substantive domestic issues. They've even had posts on New Orleans, under which I've  posted, under an alias (because the username "Olivia" was already taken.) Michael in Mesa Verde--I see what you mean in effect about how news corporations, out of being motivated by the Almighty Dollar, won't cover Katrina's aftermath. To be facetious, I wonder how New Orleans coverage would be affected were Paris Hilton to move there?:) But all kidding aside, maybe Paris (once she gets out of jail), Lindsey, and all those other bimbos who are "flavors of the moment" should go down to the storm zone and help rebuild. And make themselves useful. jerry--thanks for the interesting news. Though I'll have to add that a large part of the problem getting Katrina recovery off the ground was the GOP-controlled Congress that in concert with Bush did all it could to hold up the aid Louisiana needed while Mississippi, with a Republican governor and powerful GOP members of Congress got a disproportionate share. So the Democrats who support Louisiana's recovery are now having to play "catch-up" for her in the face of too many Republicans for their programs to easily go through and certain Bush vetoes. Last but not least, Gary, thanks for the kind words.
Mr. Bever: Save that born of brute appetite and fleeting inspiration, all action derives from thought. Occasionally, a Thomas Paine will harness the power of an idea; and the world will stop and point and say that this one man's scribblings  --  rantings, if you will  --  did indeed precipitate action. But Paine did not spring full-blown from the head of Zeus. He did not live in an intellectual or ideological vacuum. His pamphlets are the end product of years and years of discussions, at an extremely local level, by extremely "insignificant" regular folks, of the issues of the day; worn smooth and pre-polished for him in that odd. inefficient, but curiously effective manner which has until just recently been one of the hallmarks of American political discourse. Simply put: No "hopeless" chatter, no Paine. No cohesive common philosophy to back up that rush into the streets, or to the barricades, or even just to the polls; only an aimless, half-baked mob. Yeah, "First Read" is just one of the national water-coolers around which very small, seemingly powerless folks gather to hash things out, lighting their useless little candles instead of cursing the darkness. But that is precisely its power. The Chinese have it right on this one: The steady drip of small beads of water will wear away the mightiest of stones. And Americans have another part of this complex equation figured out: Be sure you're right, THEN go ahead. We let the water drip until we see what the stone is made of  --  then we do what needs to be done either with or to that stone. I myself have become as cynical in my 55 years as it is healthy for a man to be; but I have seen the power of the water-cooler too many times in my own life and in my study of history and other cultures to dismiss the cumulative power of even one brief line of heartfelt prose and poetry as a mere "sideshow". Ask George Washington or Thomas Jefferson or V.I. Lenin  --  those lines ARE the show, the only thing that differentiates the upheaval attendant to any meaningful change from the blind lashings out of the insane, the doomed, and the failed. It's to someone's real advantage to throw cold water on your strivings, folks; to discourage you by minimalizing the importance of your striving to encapsulate An Idea within the bounds of the English language; to get you, in the final analysis, to Give Up, Pony Up, and Shut Up. But it is not to your advantage. No way.    
IMPEACH BUSH. IMPEACH BUSH. IMPEACH BUSH. IMPEACH BUSH. IMPEACH BUSH. IMPEACH BUSH.END OF STORY!
Harry O, Point taken
Dave in TN...we need to get rid of the control that the conservatives have on the media.  There is no such thing as a liberal media anymore when you consider that 85% is owned by conservatives. All you need to do is tune out Faux news because they are one of the largest contributors to the trash you speak of.  How about if we get rid of TN, it's just full of right wing so-called christian radicals anyway..right?
well said, Harry!
"At midnight, steel shutters slide down tight.  Feral cats slink in the periphery of the streetlamp's dim cone of light.  Inside, like a musician swaddling a silver-plated trumpet, Akbar wraps an AK-47 in cloth.  Grease guns, pistols, RPGs-  he slides them all under the countertop.

Black marketeer or insurgent- an American death puts food on the table, more cash than most men earn in an entire year.  He won't let himself think of his childhood friends-  those who wear the blue uniforms which bring death, dying from barrels he may oiled in his own hands."  Brian Wilson, poet and OIF veteran  
Don in L.A.--boy it has been a long day.  Are you saying that ABC,NBC,CBS,MSNBC,CNN, they are all controlled by conservatives???????  And Wolf Blitzer is going to run on the GOP ticket with Rudy too!
I'm sick, America has lost contact with reality! These imitation freaks of the democratic party, how America has fallen from moral being, A dog cleaning himself has more pride.

If America votes Democrat, we have changed and head to self destruction.

America has lost our union to be called free!

These clowns in Washington have divided our nation again as was done during Vietnam. Yes , history is repeating self!!  We have learned nothing!!!!
A dog cleaning himself has more pride than these clowns who say they want to be our next president. They have taken the moral being from our nation! The have all the right answers ""That's why we are involved in two wars, constant threats to nations which don't follow in our foot steps. They have turned our congress into the laughing stock around the world!!!  

These so called clowns continue to divide our nation and the path's to the future.  It's time the people clean out this clown house!!!  I too say BOOOOOO!
Harry--very good post. Thanks.
"You can't always get what you want But you can try sometimes To get what you nees"-'You Can't always Get what You Want"-Rolling Stones
Oh, and Desmond--I forgot to mention yesterday that the Huffington Post has a lot about Iraq you'll find interesting.
Whoops...the poet's name is Brian Turner, not Wilson.
Bush's basically been able to do what he's been able to do reminds me of this joke: Q. Why does a dog lick his nether regions? A. Because he can.
Why does the discussion always revolve around how a candidate affects other candidates, how come it is not how does this candidate affect US, the voters?


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