First thoughts

Posted: Friday, June 29, 2007 9:18 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts, 2008

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin

*** The Reviews Are In: Due to the format and the lack of engagement between the candidates, it was hard the judge the performances in last night’s Democratic debate. If you twisted our arm, we’d guess Biden, Clinton, and Obama stood out the most to us. The reviews, however, seemed to be unanimous: Clinton had the strongest performance. She won the post-debate spin and the clip war. That was crystal clear this morning.

***VH-1’s “Worst Week Ever”: Meanwhile, the other consensus from this morning's clips: Bush seems to be done. His immigration bill died in the Senate. Key Republicans are beginning to abandon him on Iraq. And today, Bloomberg writes that Bush will pay a political price if he pardons Scooter Libby or not. Is this the worst week of his presidency?

*** SCOTUS Politics: Well, one good thing for Bush: this week’s (and term’s) Supreme Court rulings. Elections have consequences, right? For years, the right griped about a liberal and activist Court, and it used that to rally its troops on Election Day. But in this 50-50 Nation (or 52-48 Nation, take your pick), will the Roberts-led Court begin to become a rallying cry for liberals? We did start to see that at last night’s Democratic debate.

*** If Hillary’s The True Front-Runner, Why…: With the Clinton campaign essentially conceding the 2nd fundraising quarter to Obama, we can't help but ask this question: If Clinton's political victories this month were as great as the campaign (and many in the media) believe, then why did she lose to Obama on the money front? Money isn't EVERYTHING, but it's something. And if Clinton can't turn what has been a strong two months into a financial momentum stopper for Obama, what does that mean for the fall?

*** On The Trail: Clinton has private events in Florida; Edwards raises money there too; Gilmore is in Virginia; Huckabee campaigns in Iowa and holds a conference call with reporters in the afternoon; Kucinich appears on Letterman; McCain has a media avail in Chicago; Obama heads to Minnesota for his campaign kick off there; Richardson raises money in El Paso, TX and Las Cruces, NM; and Romney travels to Iowa.

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 43 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 65 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 113 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 130 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 141 days
Countdown to Iowa: 209 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 220 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 494 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 571 days

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Comments

What a horrible selection of candidates for the Democrat Party.So insincere.

Anthony Russi (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 9:24 AM)

Gentlemen, unfortunately the worst week of Bush's presidency is about 2371 days long and counting.....

Sherri, Charleston WV (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 9:29 AM)

Clinton has a way to use strong language to hide her real worries. When she says "No one is more committed in getting out troops out of Iraq," she means some one is. When she says "Obama will out raise me in funding, but that doesn't matter," it does matter, and that really worries her. The fact of the matter is that Obama has made his haul with donations from real people and real voters, he hasn't accepted money from PACs and Lobbyists. So when Hillary has a large chunk of her funds from both PACs and Lobbyists, and is the favorite daughter of corporate interests, and still can't out raise a first term senator, there is a problem.

Mark, NY (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 9:35 AM)

Maybe Clinton's "strong two months" are a media fabrication which doesn't accurately reflect everything going on outside the spin rooms? You said it best in your first paragraph - she won the debate because she won the post-debate spin. That might satisfy journalists but maybe the rest of us voters are looking for more?

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 9:41 AM)

When in God's name is the muckraking journalists of this country going to hammer the current occupants of the white house? I cannot believe that the pres and vice pres are so squeaky clean having been in politics this long. If this was Clinton and Gore (or for that matter Bush's father) the long knives of the press would have been out a long time ago. What dirt does the white house have on the journalists of this nation that they treat the president and vice president with kid gloves? Makes you wonder.

Dave, Matteson, IL (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 9:43 AM)

I'd have to agree with Chuck and Mark on this one. Due to the format it was hard to determine a "winner". I guess I don't get why hillary had the strongest performace. Is it because she had "if it were white women" comment? She seemed to invoke Bush and pander to the audience way too much for my taste and I'm black!! I still don't really get a feel for what she's about.... The campaign continues...

Lewis, Cincinnati, Ohio (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 9:55 AM)

Chuck Todd,& Mark Murray you obviously were very disturbed last night with the format, as evidenced in your( sub-post). Why do seem to want to silence other voices, other than what YOU consider Top teir candidates? I found that amazing.In case you have'nt heard yet, the American electorate is way ahead of your insight. You, report, WE DECIDE from all the candidates( not just the so-called media darlings). "DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER"

rick,ky (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:02 AM)

Does it occur to anyone that the real issue is socioeconomic, not simply segregation?
I lived in downtown st. louis for many years. We waited for the lottery system to pick our (white) son for the magnet school program because those were the "best" schools available to us at the time. He did eventually get chosen, and flourished, as a minority, in that outstanding school, although I was very uncomfortable with the long walk from home and bus ride to school that he had to make at such a young age.
Many of our neighbors who participated in the voluntary deseg program seemed to me to be a little frustrated with the fact that they had to bus their children out of the city in order to receive the "best" education available to them.
I think that all of us would have preferred that those funds be spent improving our neighborhood schools so that all of our children could attend school closer to home, parents could be more involved in their child's learning experience, and the whole issue of "getting" there would be safer for these young childre.

lajones, Missouri (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:05 AM)

worse week ever for the president? Surely you jest! This horror of a man single handedly caused so much death and destruction and ruining our justice system and constitution. Hes a walking disaster-every where he goes and everyone he meets ends up imploding. Hes still in office so theres probably alot more crap to come. We need a democrat in office-ANY democrat.

bb (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:12 AM)

"Worst week ever"....How about worst six years ever that this country has gone through.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:14 AM)

Clinton handily bests her male opponents in polls, debates, and fundraising. Yet, despite these consistent and demonstrable successes, you boys still manage to come up with: "IF Hillary's the true front-runner..."

Just HOW MUCH better must a woman perform over her male opponents before you frat boys give her her due.

JoeCHI, Chicago, IL (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:15 AM)

I am much less concerned about Bush being done for than I am about my country being done for as a result of his disasterous policies.

Russell in Maryland (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:17 AM)

THE "TWO AMERICAS" MANTRA IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT EACH DAY. OUR POLITICIANS USE IT AS THOUGH IT WAS US COMMON FOLK WHO WERE SPLIT.
NOPE,THE TWO AMERICAS ARE:THEM(ALL POLITIANS)AND US THE COMMON FOLK.
WHEN A GOVERNMENT WANTS EVERYONE EQUAL,AND RELYING ON IT FOR ANSWERS,HELP,HEALTH,AND THOUGHT THAT GOVERNMENT CREATES THE SAME GOVERNMENT THAT WE FIGHT ALL OVER THE WORLD.
YEAH!WE WON'T BE THE DOMINATE COUNTRY,WE WILL BE THE COUNTRY DOMINATED
HOW ENJOYABLE THAT WILL BE###!!##*&*&#!!

PRADER (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:19 AM)

That is what the NEO-CONS wanted all along to turn back and overturn PROGRESSIVE/HUMANE AND ALL INCLUSIVE RULINGS from 60/70's. Now we have four white men and one uncle Tom panderer to set our country back to separate but equal. Yeah! great...another nail in the coffin of what was once LIFE, LIBERTY AND PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS FOR ALL.

juan, ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:25 AM)

You think Hillary's comment that if AIDS was a disease of white women it would have been solved, wasn't extreme pandering at its finest? I just about winced at that statement. Take a step back. If Barack Obama had made the same comment, he'd quickly labeled a race baiter by the media and the very same people who are giving Hillary "high marks" for that comment. The frustration for me, and it has to largely with the media's double standard, is that Hillary Clinton can say just about anything without getting scrutinized. The converse is not true for the other candidates. Why is that?

Terry Jackson, Houston TX (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:29 AM)

If the worst thing that happens to Sen. Clinton in this campaign is that she raises only $28 million this quarter while Sen Obama raises $30 million--and if that's the best thing that happens to Sen. Obama--the whole shooting match is over. In truth, this money issue means nothing to anyone except those who are trying to create a contest where there really is none. Does anybody really believe that Sen. Clinton will lose the Democratic nomination due to insufficient funds? Give me a break. The only development of any significance in this campaign over the past three months is this: Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama have stood on the same stage, along with the other Democratic candidates, and debated the issues three times and Sen. Clinton has prevailed every time. Now, that seems to me to be a tad more significant than whether or not Sen. Obama raises $2 million or $3 million more than Sen. Clinton.

Joe, D.C. (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:35 AM)

Her face is cracked from smiling, all the fears that she's been hiding, and it seems that pretty soon everybody's gonna know. And her voice is sore from shouting, cheering winners who are losing,
And she worries if their days are few and soon they'll have to go. - Led Zeppelin Dancing Days

Darren, MB, SC (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 10:59 AM)

@Joe, D.C.: The money totals may not be significant to you. I think the money totals are significant only in that the Democrats are outraising their Republican counterparts pretty handily. But what should be significant to everyone is the donor totals on these releases. If Obama reports the number of total donors that people are speculating about, that is very big. Especially if those donors come from the often maligned and underpolled 19-30 demographic. The idea that "unlikely voters will decide this election/primary" has been around for ages and it hasn't really worked so far. But if the Obama camp is receiving 200,000+ individual donations at this point in the primary season and Clinton can't keep up with that, then there is trouble ahead for the Clinton campaign. I'm not saying that she won't win the nomination. But let's see her win a debate after Labor Day (when people other than the First Read community might bother watching a debate) and see how things shake out. Which ever way things go I think the Democratic candidate field can't fail to provide a great nominee.

John Doe, The Peanut Gallery (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:14 AM)

Dave in Illinois: The "dirt" he's got on EVERYBODY is his unchallenged assertion that he can "disappear" anyone at anytime -- habeas corpus be damned. Tends to put a damper on the fervor of The Loyal Opposition ...

clikdawg, Centerville, U.S.A. (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:19 AM)

It was nice to hear a range of issues addressed last night that have not been until now. Unfortunately, it is difficult to get into them with much depth, when faced with limited time and some many candidates on stage.

The debates are about sound bites and Hillary's lines about HIV/AIDS and white women was a good one. That said, if Barack Obama were to say that, it would be seen as devisive and this morning the papers would be rolling out comparisons to Al Sharpton.

One of the questions highlighted the 30+% higher unemployment rate of black male high school *graduates*, as compared to white male high school *dropouts*. None of the candidates really addressed this question head on. They talked about education, the acheivement gap and graduation rates. Tangible policy stuff, I suppose. The uncomfortable truth is that when a white high school dropout is much more likely to be employed than a black high school graduate, it is not about acheivement or education.
This is a truth that people of color observe, and can cause them to tune out, because there's a feeling that it's unfair and they can't win.

DOliver, Boston, MA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:20 AM)

"We Shall Overcome"-lyrics from Charles Tindley

Still Crazy After All These Years (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:21 AM)

Joe, we get it... she's a woman. Actually I think she's gotten more of a pass for that fact. I think if she was a man, she may well be under even greater scrutiney. Anyway, I'm offended at this continual playing of the gender card. I'm seeing it so much, I'm starting to wonder if it isn't a coordinated message. Did it come off the 44 site? That, too, is reminiscent of Karl Rove.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:22 AM)

The problem with last night's "minority issues" debate was that it took place in front of a black audience.

It would have been profound had it taken place before both a black AND white audience.

Preaching to the choir emboldens the choir. But it doesn't change its voices.

Gary Cohen, NY, NY (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:27 AM)

Hillary rocked and she won – just as she won the other 2 debates. Obama (possibly) raising more money means nothing – and by the way, raising 27 million dollars in three months is nothing to sneeze at!

criag chicago, Il (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:31 AM)

Gary Cohen--I noticed white people in the audience.

Olivia (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:03 PM)

Chuck and Todd,
you need a blog on bush's refusal to honor the congressional subpoena. this is shaping up to be a Nioxon vs. Congress-type constitutional battle over executive privilege. you have 4 or 5 pages on the dem debate, which will have no lasting impact until next november.
bush's refusal of the subpoenas, while expected, shows his disdain for the Consitution and the checks/balance in our system. for all of you who support the w's position, what would your position be if Clinton had taken the same during his impeachment and why do you think it's acceptable for bush? The parallel I see here is bush is fighting as hard as Nixon; Nixon was guilty. I prefer to have definite proof; however, logically, most people will conclude bush is ....discussion, anyone?

Mark Y; Westlake Village, CA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:08 PM)

All you white Liberals need to run out and catch AIDs so things will be equal in America. Do it for Hillary!!!

Dave, Tn (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:29 PM)

Ugh, I'm so sick of MSM people saying Hillary won this one when most message boards except this one seem to suggest otherwise. She displayed a strong grasp of the issues but looked scripted and rushed at times. Obama's debate performances keep improving, he displayed a great ability to relate questions to a broader perspective.

John, San Diego, CA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:38 PM)

just how are we judging that Hillary won? Is it because she received a thunderous applause when she made the white woman comment?? Did anyone notice she went back to the Bush administration EVERY time a question was asked of her??? Money isn't everything, but if Obama can raise that type of cash and he's been on the national political landscape for such a short time I think that shows some real grassroot supports. I think last night's debate or any of the debates thus far will have very little impact on how gets eletected. I personally think George Bush lost all the debates he was in with Gore and Kerry, but yet he was the victor in both of those contest.

Lewis, Cincinnati, Ohio (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:40 PM)

Every time I think I've seen the worst of this ignorant cowboy administration, he finds something else even more stupid to do.

Steve Althouse, Jonesboro IN (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:56 PM)

Congress needs to prove that it can come together on hard issues and get done what Bush and Cheney want done, regardless of what the majority of the American people want. You see we common people don't know what is good for us. We need to be in Iraq fighting terrorism, or we are not Patriots. We can't enforce the present laws on immigration. We need to pass new ones and try that. Its okay to have employers hire illegals, because that keeps cost down and companies can make more profit and help our economy. There is nothing wrong with our present health care system. All of our very important people like our politicians and CEO's have great coverage. Also our very poor and illegal immigrates are covered because they can't be turned away from hospitals because they are poor or on wellfare. The homeless have flop houses and soup shops. And as for out sourcing and job losses, don't worry, there will be plenty of low paying jobs still left after we realize that we don't have to stive for a better life. When we get to our two class society, the upper class and the lower class will be forever set. That will eliminate any pressure to move up. We will all be the same. No competition. Now how much more fair can this be.

Ollie frenchburg ky (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 12:56 PM)

I agree with Terry. As a Black woman I deplore her pandering remarks to Women and Black Women in particular. Everyone wants to "Recoginize all the Black Female Leaders" supporting her. Well you forget there is one that is notably absent and she states she knows her well. That is Oprah ( without a doubt the most influential Black Woman in America), she is supporting Obama. I wonder why???? Espically since you all seem to think she has the female vote locked up. Think again. Let's see what unfolds in the fall, when women and everyone else really start to pay attention. Roll out that fall campaign. Go Obama

Lyn, Silver Spring, MD (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:00 PM)

Terry of Houston: I agree with your comments whole-heartedly. HRC's AIDS comment was clearly a signature Clinton-pandering move. Barack or Edwards would be tarred and feathered if they made this remark. The fact is HRC can say anything without being scrutinized. She shamelessly takes credit for things and blames others for her blunders....e.g. Iraq is Bush's war. All the Hillary-backers are drinking their own Kool-Aid if they think she's won the past three debates. Clearly, Obama has been the viewers' choice in all three debates. Like I've said, Scarborough, Matthews, Tucker Carlson and Wolf Blitzer are not going to determine the outcome of the elections...the voters will. GO OBAMA '08

Ashe, SF, CA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:01 PM)

Terry ! You are SO right, I just said the same thing to a friend ! That was pandering (and I am a black woman) She can say anything and the media just eats it up. But that will change ! Barack is not attacking he is engaging little by little ! What I appreciated from the forum most was that he was the ONLY candidate who stress individual actions as well. On health and education, We have a role, the community must be envolved not JUST the government. Only He said that during the forum. GO OBAMA !!

Ciara Arnette (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:18 PM)

Got to agree with Ashe and Lyn, as an African American I was sickened by her repugnant display of race baiting and pandering. It's classic Clinton. She didn't speak to the heart of an issue like Obama did nor did she state any realistic plans that can be kept when in office.

And lets not forget her big house comments and her southern drawl. Be for real America!

Alex, Detroit (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:18 PM)

God didn't creat a world were people would die by trying to have something better in their life. God made this world so we would live in peace. Think about what would happen if it was the oposite of things that you were trying to go to Mexico would you like us to think hard if we wanted to have papers for you guys too. So think right don't just think that we are here to take jobs away from you because we do what you guys don't want to do. Mexicans can make a difference but the people that really want something good in life for them. People that want to make this place bad then I would understand send them to Mexico but the people that want something good for the place they live in let them live in peace.

Petra H. Salem, OR (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:33 PM)

Watched the debates online, missed the spin room, but Hillary rather fizzled after the first question. Obama and Biden were stronger and more presidential throughout.

On Darfur, Hillary would create a no-fly zone over Sudan and added with war drums in the background, “If they fly into it, we will shoot down their planes!” Too hawkish for me, and reminds me she voted for this disasterous Iraq invasion.

Mary, Seattle (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:39 PM)

I am a white, male, reformed Republican (thanks W for waking me up to see and reject the politics of greed
fear and incompetence) and have found the obvious man
of the hour! Barak Obama is impressive, and a classic
world class leader. He comes across as man with a heart for the people and what better way to regain respect throughout the world than to elect an anti rush to war candidate whose father came from the third
world country of Kenya. You want to sell democracy
elect this well spoken bright shinning star. Prestige
will return to the land of the free and you can't even put a dollar amount on that. Prestige and money are
twins. This is a concept any true bussiness conservative should understand. I think an Obama presidency would move us quickly to achieve these
important perceptions that would empower our leadership role in this critical turning point of human history.

Robert Reidy,Tillson, N.Y. (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:55 PM)

Being african american I felt she was just doing what the Clintons do. They take a bit further step and they will talk directly to minorities in a way that most candidates wouldn't or can't. I think her statement was fundamentally true..even if it was pandering. Do all candidates not pander? Or his Hillary not allowed by some people's opinons? My wife saw that statement and she agreed with it, b/c she mentioned how breast cancer often trumps HIV concerns in general.

CJ (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 1:59 PM)

Petra Mexico doesn't allow non-Mexicans to own property, or hold jobs. Do you really want us to act like Mexico? If we did we would be gathering you all up and sending you through to Canada the way Mexico sends So. Americans through to the US.

Dave, Tn (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:01 PM)

Wow. In one day on these boards I've been called a Nazi and I've had AIDS wished upon me. So... can we pretty much assume the whole "compassionate conservative" thing is dead?

John Doe, The Peanut Gallery (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:09 PM)

No it's just the permanent state of anger republicans have been in since their annointed one GW Bush turned out to be a rotten egg.

CJ (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:21 PM)

CJ, correct, all politicians pander. Hillary was doing it so blatently it was unseemly. Plus, I doubt Hillary Clinton truly believes that statment anyway.

Lewis, Cincinnati, (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:28 PM)

I'm not sure which candidate/party this will help but you have to check out uber liberal Normal Leary's youth voting initiative on declareyourself.com. The two guys from Reno 911! have video shorts that are incredibly funny. Hopefully youth will vote as they have learned through Bush that maybe presidency is an important issue! Watch the videos!

Riley, LA,CA (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:43 PM)

DOliver, Boston, MA -- I agree, I thought they dodged a question that was clearly pointed toward hiring discrimination.

Russell in Maryland (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:53 PM)

Dave, Tn -- are you sure you are not Ann Coulter? Maybe you can get on O'Reilly or Savage. Write a book?

Russell in Maryland (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 2:58 PM)

It is not pandering. It is called representative government whereby the people's view and wishes are empowered through their elected officials. An honorable representative will even advance a cause their constituency wants even though it clashes with their personal beliefs or religion. It is the American way. This is in contrast to the Bush/Lieberman form of government whereby the elected official follows their own individual beliefs against the wishes of their constituents (they call it courage) on they theory that election day is the only accountability moment and thereafter they are a term dictator.

Russell in Maryland (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 3:06 PM)

Bush had his worst week ever. He's possibly lost the last chance to succeed at anything in his 8 years. (Please don't say he did some good by giving us tax rebates and the like... that's one of the reasons why we have squandered our surplus he had when he entered office in 2001.) And, the war in Iraq wil probably go down as the most hair-brained scheme ever in US history. The war on terrorism is going very well now, isn't it? I mean, we certainly routed al-Qaida and have bin Laden in jail and have a peaceful Afghanistan now with no more poppy production. Right? And, the Taliban have no more power and are no longer in control? No??? Well, I'll be danged. What happened to RamBush?

Nick, Ohio (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 3:24 PM)

No legacy for you George other than parent less children, widows and widowers, a broken ill used military and a divided Nation. I hear you sleep well at night. I hope that in 20 years when you happen to run into a once young legless or armless veteran that he looks into your eyes and you have to look away. I hope that in ten years when an angry young 15 year old confronts you about the lost father he remembers, that you are able to come up with some sort of coherent (ha!) explanation for yourself and your policies. Sacrifice will sometimes be necessary to defend our nation. Unnecessary sacrifice should never be condoned. Leaders should be held accountable for their blunders of hubris as well as hailed for their victories of vision. You needn't expect the later and we know that you will never admit the former.

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 5:31 PM)

The only thing I found interesting about the debate was Joe Biden saying that White people need to teach black people how to use a trojan LOL.

jerry/corpus christii texas (Sent Friday, June 29, 2007 11:59 PM)

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