July 2007 - Posts
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Here's a tidbit on one of the few 2008 spouses who's actually been OUT of the news for the last few weeks. Sandwiched among the health-care policy questions posed to Giuliani at an afternoon press conference today came one about the latest profile of the mayor's wife, Judith Nathan. A reporter asked Giuliani to respond to an article in the September issue of
Vanity Fair that takes a fairly unflattering tone in its headline of his third wife as his "princess bride."
Giuliani replied that he has "quickly" looked over the piece, and he called its characterization of an attached-at-the-hip relationship with his wife "very incorrect." And the temperature in balmy New Hampshire might have dropped just a tad when he concluded, "One of the terrible prices that unfortunately families pay in a situation like this is that they get castigated and attacked. And, usually, most reporters don't even ask about it. They actually have more dignity than to ask about it."
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Among the 9,167 donors who contributed a combined $3.46 million in the month of June to former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's "testing the waters" committee, several are notable names.
Georgette Mosbacher, a leading Republican fundraiser, who once dated Thompson, contributed $2,300.
Former Sen. Howard H. Baker, gave $2,300.
Peyton W. Manning, quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, gave $2,300.
Douglas J. Feith, the former Defense Department official now teaching at Georgetown University, gave $2,300.
Katuria D'Amato, former New York Sen. Al D'Amato's wife, gave $2,300.
Trace Adkins, a country music singer, and his wife Rhonda, each contributed $2,300 maximum.
Richard A. Wolf, the producer of NBC's "Law and Order," contributed $2,300.
And George J. Terwilliger, an attorney and one of the leaders of George W. Bush's legal team during the Florida election recount, gave $2,300.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Want a free trip to DC, dinner with a presidential candidate and a tour of the Capitol, or, er, um capital? That’s what
Tancredo is offering up to anyone who can get 25 people to the Ames straw poll on Aug. 11.The offer, though, initially stirred suspicion of a violation of House ethics rules, since buildings on the Capitol grounds cannot be used for campaign purposes.
Tancredo’s campaign quickly clarified this point. Per the AP: “Bay Buchanan, Tancredo's national chairwoman, said Tuesday she meant supporters would get a tour of the capital city -- spelled with an 'a' -- which could also include a ‘public tour’ of the Capitol building -- spelled with an 'o' -- in which Tancredo would go along and point out some highlights.
“The winners would also visit some of Tancredo's favorite places in Washington, such as several war memorials, and have dinner with him at a restaurant, Buchanan said.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
Obama and Romney are up in Iowa with new 30-second TV ads.
Obama’s
spot focuses on government reform, is slickly produced and cuts together clips of his announcement speech in Springfield, Ill., and newspaper articles highlighting his days as a state senator.
Romney’s
ad focuses on immigration, specifically calls for employment verification and says “amnesty is not the answer.” The ad is polished and features Romney speaking at a town hall meeting with the backdrop of a large American flag and a heavy drum beat playing.
Obama’s ad will be mixed in with a previous biographical ad, which is running in Iowa, on cable and network affiliates. The campaign says it is a moderate, targeted buy.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
A new Gallup survey shows how Americans view the top Democratic and Republican presidential candidates on some key issues -- the economy, Iraq, terrorism, and health care. Interestingly, McCain and Giuliani tie for the top score on Iraq, while Obama leads on the economy and Clinton leads on health care. (Maybe Clinton doesn't have to release a comprehensive health-care plan after all!)
Of course, these scores are somewhat impacted by name identification (a sizable number responded with "no opinion" for Romney and Fred Thompson).
Below are the results:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
The committee that former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson set up to “test the waters” for a likely presidential run, Nashville-based "Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.," raised $3.46 million in its first month, from June 4th to June 30th, according to an Internal Revenue Service filing out today.
The amount -- reported as required by the IRS for the "527" political organization -- was less than the $5 million number that had been talked about by Thompson supporters.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
Giuliani
laid out few specifics on an actual health care plan today in New Hampshire, and instead took shots at Democrats and
Michael Moore on the topic.
"The American way is not single-payer, government-controlled anything," Giuliani said. "That’s a European way of doing something. That’s a, frankly, a Socialist way of doing something."
"If single-payer systems are cracking all over the world, why would we do it in America. Michael Moore wants to take you to Cuba for your health care. Anyone want to sign up? I didn’t think so. Maybe the Democrats will sign up."
He cited long wait times in Canada for even MRIs and took issue with the potential cost of Democratic-proposed universal health care plans. When pressed by a questioner on what steps he would take on health care, Giuliani said, first, he would "bring down the cost, so other people can afford it." Then, "give people a tax advantage to go buy individual insurance."
CONTINUED >>
NBC's Pete Williams reports that Chief Justice
John Roberts, who was hospitalized yesterday after suffering a seizure, was just released from the hospital.
VIDEO: Chief Justice Roberts leaves hospital
From NBC’s Courtney Kube
"No amount of troops in no amount of time will make much of a difference," in Iraq, according to the nominee to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, without progress on the political front from the Iraqi government.Speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee during his confirmation hearing, Admiral Mike Mullen just said that the U.S. must plan for the eventual drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq and the turnover of security responsibility there to the Iraqis.
Mullen said that he believes that the surge is helping commanders on the ground, and that "security is better, not great, but better" because of the surge. He said that security is critical, but there has not been much political progress in Iraq.
Mullen said that he understands Americans' frustration about the war, adding, "I share it," and that the U.S. "must consider our next moves very carefully."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Perhaps it's fitting that Wisconsin is hosting an intriguing political experiment.
The AP: "Two Concordia University professors are planning an unusual bipartisan campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner. Political scientist Jeff Walz, 40, plans to run against the longtime Republican congressman as a Democrat. Historian James Burkee, 39, will run as a Republican. The two plan to campaign together and combine their promotional efforts. The two have worked together in recent years as speakers and commentators. They said their goal for the campaign is to show what elections should look like."
More: "'What people want is just a greater sense of decency, a greater sense of cooperation, a greater sense of collaboration," Walz said. They hope to provide that by avoiding personal attacks and forgoing donations from special interest groups. They plan to publish a pact laying out ground rules for the campaign."
Sensenbrenner is not someone who regularly appears on vulnerable incumbent lists.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Doctor Rudy: A day after unveiling his health-care advisers (including Mark McClellan) and then blasting Clinton, Edwards, Obama, and even Michael Moore for their calls for universal coverage, Giuliani gives a speech on his health-care principles this morning from Rochester, NH. And expect more volleys at Moore and these Democrats. While this might be a questionable general election strategy (a March 2007 NBC/WSJ poll found that 52% are willing to pay higher taxes so everyone in the country can have health insurance), it could benefit him in the primaries. One, this conservative view on fiscal policy could help mask his moderate social views. And two, it allows him to go to the right of Romney on an issue and record that Romney seems to be running away from. In fact, look for Rudy to essentially bait Romney into a debate on health care -- it would be exactly the type of ideological spat the Giuliani folks would love to have.
*** You Know You’re A Front-Runner When…: Speaking of Romney, the news that he might participate in the CNN/YouTube debate after all -- if the date is moved -- just shows us that the former governor is dictating the terms of the, umm, debate. If that isn’t a sign that Romney is a front-runner (emphasis on a, not the), we don’t know what else is.
*** Bill Steps In: It's remarkable that more hasn't been made of Bill Clinton's truce-like comments regarding the Hillary-Obama spat on when/if to talk to rogue world leaders. Bill Clinton doesn't do things accidentally when it comes to campaign politics. Does this mean that the Democratic Party's foremost strategist decided this feud was hurting his wife -- and helping give Obama a lift? Imagine if Bill Clinton would have piled on and criticized Obama? Would Obama have had the guts to attack back? Then again, are the Clintons mindful of their current success with African-American voters and worried that if they hit him too hard too early, they'll drive away a key constituency? So ... many … tea … leaves … to … read … so … little … time … when … it … comes … to … Bill … Clinton
*** The Once And Future First Daughter: The New York Times profiles Chelsea Clinton, without her cooperation. Regardless of your view on the Clintons, there's no denying that the two high-profile politicians turned out a very poised and well-thought-of daughter. In this day and age of political children getting in minor trouble, Chelsea Clinton has been a model citizen. Yet a few things in the article struck us. One, she works for a hedge fund (which really isn’t the most PC of professions nowadays, especially for Democrats). Two, the Clinton campaign says that the 27-year-old Chelsea is off limits, even though she has attended campaign events. And, three, there is this: “Ms. Clinton and [boyfriend] Mr. Mezvinsky seem serious about a future together, according to friends, some of whom wonder about a White House wedding in the event of a victory by Mrs. Clinton.”
*** Northern Exposure: There are some things that just sound politically deadly, and an FBI raid is one of them. Today’s papers are full of stories about the FBI raiding the Alaska home of Sen. Ted Stevens, who is up for re-election next year. Alaska seems to be hungry for reformers: The state last year overwhelmingly elected a new governor, who does not come from the state's insider political establishment. Also, we noted last week that the state's entire congressional delegation has come under ethics fire, a sign that Alaska’s days of sending lawmakers who are focused on pork might be over.
*** Who Says There Aren’t Second Chances: Biden is out with a new book, Promises to Keep, and his campaign views it as a second official announcement of sorts. (Biden’s official announcement, remember, was overshadowed by his “clean” and “articulate” comments regarding Obama.) "I'm kind of looking at the publication of the book as the announcement cycle that we never had," Biden communications director Larry Rasky told Gannett several days ago. And how -- he was on TODAY this morning and does Letterman tonight; tomorrow, he’s on Hardball, CBS’s Early Show, and NPR; on Thursday, he does CNN and FOX; and so on. What’s more, his campaign tells us that while he’s on his book tour, his sister Valerie, wife Jill, and sons Beau and Hunter will all be hitting the trail in Iowa. But to date, free media hasn't done much for Biden. According to The Hotline, no Democratic candidate has been on the air more than he has, and it hasn't done much for his standing in the polls so far.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback heads to a firing range in Ames, IA, fires off a couple of rounds there, and then discusses gun control; Edwards fundraises in Virginia; McCain raises money in Cincinnati; Richardson is in his home state of New Mexico; Romney travels to Richmond and Virginia Beach; Tancredo makes four stops in Iowa, while Tommy Thompson makes five stops there; and Fred Thompson raises money in California.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 11 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 34 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 98 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 109 days
Countdown to Iowa: 166 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 188 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 462 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 539 days
Video: Fred Thompson committee expected to report $3 million in June fundraising
Is this the end of the Clinton-Obama spat? In his speech yesterday at the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, Bill Clinton finally weighed in on the spat -- sort of. Per NBC’s Andrew Merten, the ex-president denied commenting on who he thought was correct in the disagreement (although it’s clear where his allegiance lies) and praised all Democratic hopefuls' call for increased diplomacy. Said Clinton: “We have to get back to more diplomacy. I don’t want to get in the middle of that little spat that Hillary and Senator Obama had, but there’s more than one way to practice diplomacy. You can make up your own mind about that.”
The Politico: “If the 42nd president was speaking in any way as a proxy for his wife’s campaign, it’s a pretty clear sign that Obama has succeeded in his pushback against Hillary Clinton.”
Meanwhile, Obama once again brought up the spat during his town hall in Cedar Rapids, IA yesterday, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum reports. "It is my belief that we have to talk to the Iranians and we have to talk to the Syrians," he said, receiving lengthy applause. Obama stated that he is "not worried about losing a PR debate with some tin-pot dictator," and that Iran and Syria are receiving a free pass. "They are able to act irresponsibly to allow insurgents or to finance militias inside Iraq. Nobody holds them accountable. And the United States is blamed because it looks like we're unwilling to talk to them. And my attitude is we should not be afraid to talk to anybody."
Between now and August 11 (the day of the straw poll), we'll be focusing a bit more energy on the under-the-radar campaigns going on among the various second- and third-tier GOP candidates. Politico's Simon helps set the cheeky CW for the second-tier candidates.
GIULIANI:
John Harwood of CNBC and the Wall Street Journal
curtain-raises Giuliani's health-care speech today. Giuliani, "bidding for the allegiance of economic conservatives, is set to outline a health-care policy that he says would improve coverage access and affordability at little cost to the government." In an interview, Giuliani "described development of the anemic market for individually purchased health-insurance policies as the centerpiece of his plan. He said that, if elected, he would introduce a tax deduction of as much as $15,000 a family for the purchase of such policies. He predicted that with such a tax break, the number of Americans buying coverage on their own would go to 30 million or more from the current 17 million. Such an increase in subscribers would let insurance companies cut the prices of policies markedly and allow "millions" of Americans to afford coverage, Mr. Giuliani said."
CONTINUED >>
It looks like Big Labor could largely stay on the primary sidelines -- not because it isn’t crazy about any of the candidates, but because it’s very pleased with the field. "If the unions do delay throwing their weight behind any candidate early in the campaign, it would be particularly frustrating to" John Edwards, who has courted labor heavily. "Several unions that like Mr. Edwards are wary of endorsing him because he lags well behind Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in the polls… Clinton and Mr. Obama are wooing unions partly to prevent Mr. Edwards’s securing the A.F.L.-C.I.O. endorsement and partly to pick up individual union endorsements for themselves."
BIDEN:
The
AP previews the senator’s new book. “‘Promises to Keep: On Life and Politics’ offers glimpses of the Delaware lawmaker's life and thoughts from his childhood growing up in an middle-class Irish Catholic family to his current run for the White House. The book will be released Tuesday. The message, according to Biden, is to get back up after life knocks you down, a mantra instilled in him by his father, whose business setbacks never diminished his pride or his determination to provide for his family.”
CLINTON:
The
New York Times piece on Chelsea Clinton: “So far, Ms. Clinton is more a character than a presence in the campaign, which seeks to portray Senator Clinton as a strong yet nurturing force, a friend to women and children and a symbol of progress from one generation to the next… Campaign officials would not say when — or even if — Ms. Clinton would appear on the trail. ‘Even though President and Senator Clinton are public figures, their daughter is not,’ Howard Wolfson, the campaign spokesman, said in a statement. ‘While Chelsea Clinton has attended events for her mom and will be supporting her parents in their political and philanthropic endeavors, she will continue to focus on her own professional and personal interests as a private person.’”
CONTINUED >>
There's a bill floating around in the Michigan legislature that could allow the state to hold a January 29 primary (joining Florida). Then again, the bill could also allow the primary to be on Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5).
Here's what we can tell you about Michigan: Either party is prepared to hold a primary, a caucus, or even a convention in order to have a say before February 5. A lot depends on how Florida is treated by the DNC.
This has nothing to do with the primary calendar, but keep an eye on the North Carolina Democratic legislature, which could dramatically shake up the Electoral College playing field if it decides to award the state’s electoral votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all (a la Maine and Nebraska). This could take three to five electoral votes away from the GOP.
The headline from the
Washington Times: “New British leader backs Bush on Iraq.” From the article: “British Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday strongly backed the U.S.-led war in Iraq and said the global war against terror looms as a ‘generation-long battle.’” But the
New York Daily News’ take on Brown’s visit with Bush is that he “signaled his intent to pull his 5,500 troops from Iraq.” The paper also writes that Brown believes “Afghanistan is the front where the war on terror is being fought.”
The New York Times: “The two leaders showed none of the warmth and coziness that Mr. Bush had shared with Mr. Brown’s predecessor, Tony Blair, a closeness that contributed to Mr. Blair’s political tumble at home. But Mr. Brown offered bullish comments on Britain’s relationship with the United States. On Iraq, Mr. Brown said any future British decision to reduce troops and cede control of a sector to the Iraqis ‘will be made on the military advice of our commanders on the ground.’”
CONTINUED >>
Here are some excerpts of Vice President Cheney’s interview with Mark Knoller on CBS Radio yesterday:
-- on whether he wants AG Gonzales to keep fighting for his job: “I do. I'm a big fan of Al's.”
-- on whether Gonzales needs to clarify his testimony: “I'm not going to get into the specifics of it. I think Al has done a good job under difficult circumstances. The debate between he and the Senate is something they're going to have to resolve. But I think he has testified truthfully.”
-- on whether Gonzales can remain attorney general if Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Pat Leahy says he doesn’t trust Gonzales: “I've had my differences with Pat Leahy. I think the key is whether or not he has the confidence of the President, and he clearly does.”
-- on Libby’s guilty verdict: Cheney said he disagreed with it, that President Bush handled it correctly, and that he’s seen Libby at a number of social events since the commutation. Libby guilty verdict, the President handled it correctly and that he's seen Libby at a number of social events since the commutation.
The Washington Post: "Cheney's remarks about his former aide, I. Lewis ‘Scooter’ Libby, appear to conflict with the views of President Bush, who said after the verdict that he 'respected' the jury verdict but felt that the 30-month sentence handed to Libby was excessive."
The
Washington Post: "Agents from the FBI and the Internal Revenue Service raided the Alaska home of Sen. Ted Stevens (R) yesterday as part of a broad federal investigation of political corruption in the state that has also swept up his son and one of his closest financial backers, officials said. Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in history, is under scrutiny from the Justice Department for his ties to an Alaska energy services company, Veco, whose chief executive pleaded guilty in early May to a bribery scheme involving state lawmakers… Stevens said in a statement that his attorneys were advised of the impending search yesterday morning. He said he would not comment on details of the inquiry to avoid ‘any appearance that I have attempted to influence its outcome.’”
The New York Times adds that the investigation centers on Stevens’ relationship to a businessman who oversaw a remodeling project that almost doubled the size of the senator’s house… The decision to raid the home suggests that the corruption investigation focused on Mr. Stevens … has taken on new urgency.”
"Neighbors said agents showed up between 11 a.m. and noon, and a commercial locksmith was called to open the front door. The agents were still there at 8:30 p.m… Throughout the afternoon Monday, agents could be seen coming and going from the house, on a dirt street below the Alyeska Ski Resort. Curtains were drawn much of the day, so it was impossible to know what was happening inside. Outside, agents could be seen taking extensive still and video images of the house and surrounding property.”
From NBC's Carrie Dann and Mark MurrayIf the
Giuliani campaign's conference call earlier today wasn't a hint that the former New York mayor was on the attack against the Democrats' health-care plans, this certainly is... In New Hampshire today, Giuliani was treating supporters to a quick preview of the big health-care policy rollout he'll give tomorrow in Rochester. And from the sounds of it, he'll be casting documentary filmmaker Michael Moore in a starring role as his number one villain.
In the recent documentary "Sicko," Giuliani said at one campaign stop, Moore "proclaims, in essence, kind of what the theory of the Democrats is -- that medicine in Cuba is better than medicine in the United States." To much chuckling, he asked the crowd, "Would anybody here like to put up their hands to go to Cuba for medical treatment? No! It'd be like getting sentenced!"
At a later stop in Moultonsboro, NH, Giuliani drew even more specific parallels between Moore and his Democratic rivals -- a tactic that both he and Mitt Romney are fond of employing. "Only Michael Moore,
Hillary Clinton,
Barack Obama, and
John Edwards, I guess, would want to go to Cuba for health care," he said. Giuliani went on to accuse Democrats of "setting traps" for the American people by promising universal health care (administered by what he calls a "nanny state") rather than the market-based system supported by most Republicans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A group of House Democrats will introduce a resolution calling on the Judiciary Committee to begin impeachment proceedings against Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.
Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) will sponsor the measure. It will be dropped in the hopper tomorrow.
It's too early to say whether it will actually get anywhere.
Here's the text of resolution...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
BREAKING NEWS: Chief Justice John Roberts has been taken to a hospital in Maine after falling at a summer vacation home.
The court says Roberts fell at a summer home in Port Clyde, Maine. An ambulance was called, and he was taken to a nearby hospital "as a precaution." The court says he was conscious during the trip to the hospital, and an emergency response team member tells NBC News Roberts was "alert."
He fell earlier this afternoon, sometime between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm ET, the court says.
Roberts is 52 and has has been chief justice for two terms, joining the court in late September 2005. He has no history of health problems.
****UPDATE**** Long before John Roberts was a federal judge, he apparently suffered a seizure while playing golf. It was in January 1993, while he was in private practice. News reports at the time say he was not allowed to drive for several months and took the bus to work. There's no indication that doctors ever figured out what happened. The White House called it an "isolated, idiosyncratic seizure."
**** UPDATE II **** The Supreme Court says that Roberts suffered a benign seizure today.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC News, MSNBC, MSNBC.com and the New York Times today announced a new partnership, collaborating on national political coverage for the 2008 election. Reporting, articles and video from the organizations will be posted on each others' Web sites.
For more on the new partnership, see below.
For MSNBC's politics Web site.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Andrew Merten
Giuliani will unveil an outline of his healthcare plan tomorrow as one of his “12 Commitments” in a speech in New Hampshire. The campaign held a conference call with reporters, rolling out a cadre of conservative health care policy advisers from Mark McClellan to fellows at the Hoover Institution, Manhattan Institute and Pacific Research Institute, including two anti-universal health care Canadians.
One of the advisers, Sally Pipes, head of the Pacific Research Institute, acknowledged the problem of the 45 million uninsured in the United States, but contends, in part, that they are uninsured because they cannot afford insurance, and they will be able to afford it when “mandates” and “regulations” on employers and health insurance companies are removed.
“Unfortunately, there's another vision out there, which is being espoused by governors, mayors, political presidential candidates, which is trying to solve the problem of the uninsured by introducing the concept of universal coverage, which means individual and employer mandates,” Pipes said. “And that is the wrong way to go.… By putting an individual mandate in place … it will not solve the problem of the uninsured.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Joel SeidmanCandidate-in-waiting
Fred Thompson, a frequent contributor to conservative Web sites like National Review Online and the Townhall.com blog, is once again promoting his views on yet another core conservative issue. Today, he is taking on the controversial subject of Eminent Domain, one of the growing list of core issues that Thompson has decided to tackle online.
"Our Founders placed respect for private property as a key principle when writing our nation's Constitution," he writes on his own Imwithfred.com. Homeownership, Thompson says has become an increasingly "integral part of our citizens' aspirations for a better future." And he lashes out at local governments' confiscating private property, "It's said that a man's home is his castle, but across America some property owners are being rooked by local bureaucrats and politicians and having their private property confiscated by local governments for the supposed public good," he argues.
It's yet another sign that Thompson is positioning himself as the champion of all things socially conservative -- from global Warming to immigration to gun control.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Should we cross
Eliot Spitzer off of any potential '08 veep lists? Don't miss his mea culpa in
Sunday's New York Times, under the header "An Apology From Albany."
Spitzer's style has been compared to
Giuliani's -- a tough prosecutor who never shied away from a bank of TV cameras. Spitzer, in his first six months, is having similar "getting along" problems as Giuliani had during many parts of his mayoral terms. Compromising with folks who don't see things your way is not easy for an elected executive. Being a prosecutor is easy in comparison.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Many of us view the goings on here in your US House with bemusement or even disdain. The rap is that the "people's House" occupies itself with naming post offices and passing "sense of Congress" resolutions that are sops to one special interest or another and have no real impact. Everything else -- the important stuff -- gets mired in partisanship.
But a resolution on the floor today demonstrates very clearly that Americans are not the only ones watching what goes on here, and that what our national legislature says and thinks has great influence abroad. Today, the House will likely call on the government of Japan to "apologize and accept historical responsibility" for comfort women -- the young Asian women who were forced into sexual slavery by the Japanese Imperial Army during World War II. The resolution, though destined for obscurity on these shores, is threatening to cause a rift with one of America's closest allies.
The measure is sponsored by Bay Area Democrat Mike Honda, a Japanese American who spent his childhood in a WWII Japanese internment camp in Colorado. It has been the subject of a reportedly harsh letter from the Japanese embassy in Washington to Speaker Pelosi. Normally forthcoming congressional aides have been secretive about such run-of-the-mill matters as when the bill would hit the floor, announcing just yesterday that it be considered today. So great is the potential impact in Asia that it appears to have been held until the day after Japanese parliamentary elections.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** How Things Change: A year ago, a handful of potential Democratic presidential candidates (Hillary Clinton, Evan Bayh, and Tom Vilsack) attended the centrist Democratic Leadership Council’s annual meeting in Denver. But this time around, not a single one has traveled to Nashville to speak at this year’s conference, which continues today. On the flip side, most of them will participate this weekend at the YearlyKos convention, sponsored by the liberal political blog DailyKos.
*** The Center Didn't Hold: While not a single Democratic hopeful will speak to the DLC, the famous spouse of the front-runner -- Bill Clinton -- addresses the group today this afternoon. It was Clinton, of course, who once chaired the DLC and embodied many of its principles during his presidency. But as Noam Schieber put it in a Saturday New York Times op-ed, the DLC appears to have outlived its usefulness. Once a needed counterweight to the liberal excesses of the '70s and '80s, the DLC found itself on the wrong side of the Iraq war (its founder and staff backed Joe Lieberman's independent bid last year). What's more, a March NBC/WSJ poll (for the first time ever in the survey) showed a majority of respondents want an activist government. Will pendulum keep leaning toward the left come November 2008? The Democratic candidates seem to be betting the White House on it. However, of the current '08 field, Hillary Clinton may very well be the DLC candidate.
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Video: None of the candidates attending Dem. Leadership Council meeting
*** The 3-Million-Dollar Man? Per NBC’s Joel Seidman, Fred Thompson’s “testing the waters” committee must file with the IRS by tomorrow to reveal -- for the first time -- some of his fundraising efforts for "Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.," the Nashville based "527" political organization he formed in early June. Though the filing will provide records for only one month of funds raised, plus a list of contributors, it will somewhat lift the veil of mystery of Thompson's fundraising abilities. Will the amount be able to stop the flow of bad news for Team Fred (which includes staff defections, questions about his abortion record, and attention to his wife’s role in his campaign)? Maybe not. NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reported last week that the tally will be around $3 million.
*** So You Say You’ve Got Experience: Newsweek's Wolfe writes about last week's Clinton-Obama spat and delves into something we're surprised some of the foes of Clinton and Obama haven't brought up yet: Whether either one of them really has a lot of foreign policy experience. “Both Clinton and Obama have called on foreign-policy heavyweights to educate them on the issues and help shape their approach to world affairs. But neither candidate would bring much in the way of hands-on foreign-policy experience to the Oval Office. Their efforts to promote their credentials can seem strained."
*** Living History: On Sunday, the New York Times front-paged letters that Hillary Clinton exchanged with a friend while in college. These letters are both revealing -- and not -- at the same time. They are revealing in that she comes across as, get this, a typical college liberal of the time. In the article, the Clinton camp acts as if it doesn’t care for this type of coverage. But one can argue that it helps continue to make her three dimensional, which only helps. The tidbit, though, that she asked for copies of these letters wasn’t surprising. The Clintons never like to be surprised.
*** On The Trail: Giuliani stumps in New Hampshire; McCain hits fundraisers in Pittsburgh and DC; Obama holds a town hall in Cedar Rapids, IA before traveling to Dallas for a fundraiser; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; Tancredo campaigns in Iowa; and Fred Thompson has a closed-press fundraiser in DC.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 12 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 35 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 82 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 99 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 110 days
Countdown to Iowa: 167 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 189 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 463 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 540 days
The Clinton-Obama spat continued over the weekend, NBC’s Andrew Merten reports… On Saturday, while campaigning in Des Moines, Obama said: “It’s time to turn the page on the Bush-Cheney diplomatic strategy that has isolated America from our allies and reduced our moral standing in the international community. We need a president who’ll have the strength and courage to go toe-to-toe with the leaders of rogue nations because that’s what it takes to protect our security.”
Then former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who has endorsed Clinton after ending his own presidential bid, quickly fired back. In a conference call with reporters, he challenged Obama to clarify his position, saying, “It appears that the day before the Charleston debate, Senator Obama is reported [per the Miami Herald] to have suggested that he would be glad to meet with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, but only with certain preconditions being met, which is precisely what Senator Clinton said.” Vilsack continued: “We just would simply like the good senator to clarify his position. Which is it? Preconditions or not?”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
On this same day that Bill Clinton is the lone candidate or candidate spouse to address the DLC convention, the
Los Angeles Times examines Hillary Clinton's relationship with Indian-American businesses, some of which are seen by labor unions as threats to labor because of outsourcing. “‘People do want to see from her some recognition that the outsourcing of these service jobs isn't a good thing for the U.S. economy,’ said Thea M. Lee, policy director of the AFL-CIO. ‘It's a little bit of an open question where Sen. Clinton's going to end up on outsourcing.’”
On Sunday, the LA Times had a piece that's going to make the Clinton folks upset. Arguing that the Bush Administration is one of the most secretive in history, the piece contends that if either Clinton or Giuliani is elected, their past suggests they'll follow suit. "Clinton was widely criticized for secrecy when she led her husband's effort to design a new healthcare system. A task force she headed ran afoul of federal law when it tried to hold closed meetings… Giuliani resisted outside efforts to evaluate municipal programs and review city records when he was mayor. As he was leaving office in 2001, he had thousands of mayoral records hauled to a private warehouse — a move that gave rise to a city law barring such action."
On Sunday, the New York Times examined letters that she exchanged with a friend from 1965-1969. “Ms. Rodham’s 30 dispatches are by turns angst-ridden and prosaic, glib and brooding, anguished and ebullient — a rare unfiltered look into the head and heart of a future first lady and senator and would-be president. Their private expressiveness stands in sharp contrast to the ever-disciplined political persona she presents to the public now.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes about anti-abortion conservatives who are a bit worried about the GOP presidential field.
Conservative bloggers have drawn up a petition urging the GOP presidential candidates not to shun the Republican CNN/YouTube debate, which is set for next month. The petition says, “Attend the YouTube debate, and you may get a tough question or two. Don't attend, and millions of Americans will wonder if you were too afraid to answer questions from the Internet, just as Democrats were afraid to go on Fox News. None of you could have gotten to where you are now without showing real political courage. Is that really how you'd like to be known?”
But the Washington Post reports that Romney might be willing to participate in the YouTube debate, if the date is moved.
More potential YouTube debate questions are being posed at Giuliani than any other candidate already, the New York Post reported on Sunday.
CONTINUED >>
At Camp David later this morning, President Bush holds a joint press availability with new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Yesterday, the Los Angeles Times wrote that the Democratic presidential candidates talk about getting out of Iraq, but not much on Al Qaeda and terrorism. On the flip side, Republicans talk about the threat of Islamic terrorism, but not so much on Iraq. “The problem each party faces, polls show, is that most Americans want answers to both questions, not just one or the other.”
VIDEO: President Bush and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown meet face-to-face for the first time since Brown succeeded Tony Blair last month.
You've heard of follow the money? How about follow the schedule to find out which state is really having the most influence on the process. Hands down it’s Iowa. Check out this tally of candidate visits in the state the Iowa Democratic Party has been keeping for the last four weeks:
--The week of July 1 = 74
--The week of July 9 = 85
--The week of July 16 = 49
--The week of July 23 = 83
If a candidate made four stops in one day in Iowa, that counted as "4" in this tally. Still, it shows how busy things are in Iowa.
On Sunday, the
Washington Post front-paged: “A surgeon general's report in 2006 that called on Americans to help tackle global health problems has been kept from the public by a Bush political appointee without any background or expertise in medicine or public health, chiefly because the report did not promote the administration's policy accomplishments, according to current and former public health officials.”
It's no longer a drip-drip with Alberto Gonzales. It's a geyser.
In fact, the Washington Post front-pages Gonzales’ record with the truth. “The accusation that Gonzales has been deceptive in his public remarks has erupted this summer into a full-blown political crisis for the Bush administration, as the beleaguered attorney general struggles repeatedly to explain to Congress the removal of a batch of U.S. attorneys, the wiretapping program and other actions… [C]ontroversy over Gonzales's candor about George W. Bush's conduct or policies has actually dogged him for more than a decade, since he worked for Bush in Texas.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton is not the only one trying to capitalize on the controversy. The Obama campaign has bought flashy Web banner ads in Iowa and New Hampshire with the message:
--One candidate had the judgment to oppose the war from the start.
--One candidate knows it's irresponsible to send troops to war without a plan to bring them home.
--One candidate believes it's naïve to believe we can resolve conflicts without talking to our adversaries.
--Ready for a new direction?"
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the National Urban League conference this morning, four Democratic presidential hopefuls -- Kucinich, Edwards, Clinton, and Obama -- discussed their agendas to help poor urban African Americans rise out of poverty. But they also took advantage of the stage to offer both indirect and direct jabs at their opponents.
Clinton and Obama were each asked what, if elected, they would do to help the urban plight, and both responded they would make a change at the attorney general level. "Number one, let's appoint an attorney general who believes in the civil rights laws," Clinton said. "In addition to actually enforcing the laws we have on the books, let's make sure if there are holes that need to be plugged and gaps we have to fill, we do that." Later, Obama said, "I will have a Justice Department that actually promotes justices, and an attorney general who cares about civil rights."
Hillary's Southern And Obama's BlackIt appeared that Clinton's parodied southern accent resurfaced while she was talking about her belief for a "new and different conversation" about the 1.4 million African American men ages 16-24 in prison who are considered to be a "threat, headache, or a lost cause."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
If you or an ally is the recipient of a political attack, what do you do? First you respond to it -- and then you raise money off it. We saw this when the Edwards campaign issued fundraising solicitations during the tiff with Ann Coulter. And now the Clinton campaign is trying to raise money after its recent spat with Obama.
In a email solicitation, Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle writes, "Last week, one of the leading Republican candidates equated Hillary with Karl Marx. Yesterday, one of the leading Democratic candidates called her 'Bush-Cheney lite.' Can you imagine?? Hillary like George Bush??!! Or Dick Cheney!! Well, I guess this is what Hillary gets for being the strongest, most qualified, the most substantive, the most experienced, the most ready to be president. That's what Hillary has gotten all her career for being willing to fight for change." (No mention that Clinton struck Obama first, when she told an Iowa newspaper on Tuesday that Obama was "irresponsible" and "naive" for stating that he would meet with rogue world leaders without precondition.)
More from the email: "[Y]ou are Hillary's family; you are Hillary's friends. You are her strength. Almost one million of you -- and she's counting on you to stand with her. You've been there, in the trenches with her, day after day, week after week, year after year. Now there's only one thing I'm going to ask you to do: CONTRIBUTE. Send Hillary $5, 10, 15. Anything you can afford. Every dollar helps Hillary fight back."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Clinton campaign is circulating a fund-raising e-mail, using the flap over the senator’s “cleavage” as the peg. “Now, I've seen some off-topic press coverage,” writes Senior Advisor Ann Lewis, referring to the
Washington Post article and ensuing coverage of the topic, “but talking about body parts? That is grossly inappropriate.” She goes on to call the coverage “insulting” and urges supporters to “Take a stand against this kind of coarseness and pettiness.” She then takes a veiled shot at Edwards, saying, “Hillary's jacket was the subject of some discussion among the candidates -- because it was coral. Debates should be serious business. We are, after all, picking the next commander in chief.”
Now, give us "your support -- in whatever amount, large or small."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Illinois GOP Rep.
Ray LaHood -- one of best talkers among House Republicans --
won't seek another term. "The decision comes just more than a month after the long-time Republican representative said he would seek an eighth term in Congress and was not going to apply for the Bradley University presidential post. He said in July he would make an official re-election announcement when he begins circulating petitions for candidacy in August." It will be a challenge for Democrats to make a play for this open seat next year. In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in this Peoria-based district, 58%-42%. But if Obama's on the ticket and with the right candidate, Democrats could have a shot.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Image-maker Fred Davis, who created the McCain campaign's logo and redesigned the new Straight Talk Express bus, told the Washington Post.com today that "sadly" he is leaving. Two others left earlier in the week. That means Of McCain's ad people, just Mark McKinnon is left.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Florida polls shows Clinton with a double-digit lead over her closest Democratic competitor, while Giuliani and Fred Thompson are running neck and neck in the state's GOP contest. According to the survey, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon, Clinton leads among likely Democratic primary voters at 31% -- followed by Obama at 17%, and Edwards at 12%. No other Democratic hopeful registers at more than 4%.
Meanwhile, in the GOP race, Giuliani is the choice of 21% of likely Republican primary voters. Thompson comes in second at 18%, McCain's at 11%, and Romney is at 7%. The margin of error in both polls is plus-minus 5%.
Strikingly, 34% of Florida GOP primary voters say they're undecided (which easily tops Giuliani's 21%), while 30% of Democratic voters say the same thing.
From NBC's Courtney Kube
Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England just provided an extremely unusual -- and totally dumbfounding -- moment at the retirement ceremony for vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Ed Giambastiani.
As England was speaking about Giambastiani, a man in a red shirt walked up to the deputy secretary and put a parrot -- yes, a parrot -- on England's shoulder. England said he wanted his remarks to be very personal and that was why "Sweetie Pie" was on his shoulder. But England did not explain the joke for the rest of us. The parrot stayed on England's shoulder for the remainder of his brief remarks.
England then brought out a digital recorder that had recorded a message to Giambastiani and his wife on ... in morse code. He played the recording and translated the farewell message for those of us whose morse code is a little rusty.
Gates joked about the moment when he stepped to the podium right after England, saying, "I can't possibly top that. I have no animals."
Video: Defense official delivers speech with parrot
From NBC’s Andrea Mitchell
John Edwards took a shot at Clinton and Obama's dispute -- telling the National Urban League convention in St Louis: "If you’re looking, if you're looking for what’s wrong in Washington, why the system is broken, why the system doesn’t work, one perfect example is what's been happening over the last four days. We’ve had two good people, Democratic candidates for president, who’ve spent their time attacking each other, instead of attacking the problems that this country’s faced.
“I got your attention with that one, didn't I?”
He delivered a populist-themed speech, opening his remarks by saying that America is broken -- and he still believes we have two Americas. "I'm here to tell you the system is rigged,” Edwards said. “It is rigged; it is broken, and not working for most people in this country."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The word spreading all over Capitol Hill today is that longtime Fox senior congressional producer Jim Mills is leaving his booth on the House side to join the Fred Thompson quasi-campaign as spokesman. NBC has confirmed that Mills will join Thompson's organization effective August 20.
Lot's of "OMG" and even "OMFG" being traded on the e-mail this morning among staffers and press because Mills is something close to a legend on the House side. Known for his pugnacious (yet jocular) style, everyone from Speaker Pelosi to the cashiers down in the basement have gotten a kick out of "Millsy" at one time or another, and in one form or another.
Full disclosure: Over the years, Mills and I have been fierce competitors and close friends. I have known him to be a creative and perceptive individual who never played favorites. Most everyone comes away from an encounter with him with a smile on their face, with some notable exceptions among members -- both Rs and Ds -- who trip his BS alarm.
See ya around, Millsy.
From NBC's Andrew MertenEven before the opening credits of the new "Simpsons" movie, the writers take a jab at the earlier-than-normal coverage of the next presidential election. The movie begins with an episode of "Itchy and Scratchy" that tells of the cartoon mouse's heroism, making him
Hillary Clinton's running partner -- and she's the at the bottom of the ticket.
Other political plots include
Al Gore's crusade against global warming, NSA spying, and
Arnold Schwarzenegger as president.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** The Shot Heard 'Round The Political World: This week’s spat between Clinton and Obama appears to be over. And a month from now, we’ll all have forgotten it. But it did expose -- in public for the first time -- the different attacks the campaigns will use against each other. For Clinton, it was painting Obama as inexperienced ("naïve" and "irresponsible") and as a hypocrite when he punches back (“Whatever happened to the politics of hope?”). For Obama, it was turning Clinton into the status-quo candidate (calling her “Bush-Cheney lite”). Who won? Not to cop out, but it seems both campaigns think they've done good things this week. If anything, the skirmish was analogous to a battle, where one army (Clinton’s) senses a vulnerability and charges, then the other army (Obama’s) beats it back. And the battle line remains the same as it was before the whole thing started. Although we have to note that Obama seemed to have a bounce in his step in New Hampshire yesterday -- like a boxer who takes a punch and realizes, hey, wow, I CAN take a punch.
*** Abandon Ship, Abandon Ship: Fred Thompson is lucky that most political reporters this week have been focused on the Clinton-Obama spat. Because the last 24 hours in his non-campaign have been chaotic, to say the least. There was a point yesterday when it seemed Thompson was losing a staffer an hour. Apparently, every single staffer that decided to leave called a reporter or a blogger to give their version of "Jeri Thompson is micro-managing things too much." Lots of eye-rolling among those following this story. Perhaps the good news for Thompson is expectations for his actual candidacy are starting to drop -- like a rock among some.
*** So Who’s The Front-Runner? As NBC’s David Gregory pointed out on TODAY, the front-runners might not be the candidates who are leading in the national polls. In fact, a new KCCI/Research 2000 polls shows Edwards and Romney ahead in Iowa.
Video: New Iowa poll shows Dem and GOP shake-ups
*** Back On The Hot Seat: Congressional Democrats are not giving up on their campaign to oust Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. And the White House should be aware that every time Gonzales appears on the Hill to defend himself, more Republicans seem comfortable criticizing him as well. Gonzales has already defied political death before, so who knows. But when the head of the FBI is disputing your accounts, that can't be a good thing.
*** Another Day, Another Forum: This morning, Clinton, Edwards, Kucinich, and Obama speak (individually) to the National Urban League’s conference in St. Louis. All the GOP presidential candidates were invited, but none of them will make an appearance, although Huckabee attended a private reception there last night. After the conference, Clinton participates in an economic policy town hall at West Virginia State University and then speaks at the National Beauty Culturists' League Convention in Virginia; Edwards speaks at the College Democrats of America Conference at the University of South Carolina; and Obama hosts a “rural issues forum” in Iowa.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback is in Iowa; Dodd also stumps in the Hawkeye State, where he meets bicycling registrants at the Ride Across Iowa (note: he’s not riding 12 miles like Edwards did yesterday); Giuliani travels to Dallas; Huckabee speaks in Philadelphia; McCain raises money in New York City and then attends a minor league baseball game in Greenville, SC; Richardson is in New Hampshire, and Romney campaigns in Iowa. The candidates’ wives are busy as well: Elizabeth Edwards makes three stops in New Hampshire, while Jackie Dodd and Mary Brownback are in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 15 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 38 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 85 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 102 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 113 days
Countdown to Iowa: 170 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 192 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 466 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 543 days
The Washington Post's Balz and Kornblut write about yesterday's escalation by both camps and note: "The tussle could be a turning point in the Democratic race, which has seen little direct engagement between the top two candidates until now, and highlights how the competition between them has been framed: Clinton's experience vs. Obama's freshness. For Obama, it also marked a plunge into charge-countercharge politics after a promise to run ‘a different kind of campaign.’”
A couple of fallout questions: Will Obama pay a price with supporters (especially independents) for practicing politics as usual, and will Clinton see her unfavorables go up among Democrats for hitting the popular guy?
The Politico's Smith says, "At the core of the exchange, each campaign saw an opportunity. Clinton saw a chance to feed doubts about her main challenger's readiness to stand on the world stage. Obama, after a moment of doubt, took the offensive to paint himself as the true apostle of the kind of dramatic change that Americans – and particularly Democrats – say they want."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN:
Here's an interesting shot Joe Biden's New Hampshire chair took at Obama yesterday. There's a charge buried in here, but it's implied not direct. We'll let you, the readers, connect the dots. State Rep. Jim Ryan issued a statement following Paul Hodes' endorsement of Obama: "I am deeply disappointed by the comments of Senator Obama this morning. It does not say a lot for Obama's opinion of New Hampshire officials if he thinks that our endorsements can be bought and sold for 'favors.’ We take pride in New Hampshire of the fact that we look beyond the hype and the money and really focus on where all the candidates stand on the issues. Our last two Democratic presidents started off low in the polls, however they won in New Hampshire based on the merits of their ideas.”
CLINTON:
She’ll be in Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket at the end of August for at least three fund-raisers. “Tickets for the August 25 party go for $2,300 for the whole affair, or $1,000 to attend the reception but skip the ‘town hall conversation,’” the
Boston’s Globe says.
An ex-National Education Association president
endorsed Clinton.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Daily News says it looks like there’s but a “snowman’s chance” of a CNN/YouTube Republican debate. Giuliani said “scheduling issues” would likely keep him away; McCain called questions from a snowman “frankly inappropriate”; and Romney said “the presidency ought to be held at a higher level than having to answer questions from a snowman.” The New York Post says Giuliani’s camp is concerned about the proximity of the Sept. 17th date to the close of the third quarter -- Sept. 30th.
GIULIANI: The
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder also notes that Giuliani might skip the YouTube debate. While in Texas yesterday, Giuliani said the red state could be competitive in a general election, notes NBC’s Shawna Thomas. “Texas will be a battleground,” he said, insisting that Republicans couldn’t take the state for granted.
CONTINUED >>
Per the New York Times, “Bush administration officials are voicing increasing anger at what they say has been Saudi Arabia’s counterproductive role in the Iraq war. They say that beyond regarding Mr. Maliki as an Iranian agent, the Saudis have offered financial support to Sunni groups in Iraq. Of an estimated 60 to 80 foreign fighters who enter Iraq each month, American military and intelligence officials say that nearly half are coming from Saudi Arabia and that the Saudis have not done enough to stem the flow.”
NBC Des Moines affiliate WHO-TV took six undecided voters -- two Democrats, two Republicans, and two Independents -- from different Iowa cities and allowed them to grade the Dem and GOP presidential candidates’ responses to this question: “What do you think will happen when U.S. troops are withdrawn from Iraq, and what is your strategy to deal with what happens afterward?” The grades weren’t too kind.
A new Research 2000 poll conducted for KCCI in Iowa shows Edwards still leading with 27%, followed by Clinton at 22% and Obama at 16%. Also breaking double-digits, Bill Richardson at 11%. In May, Research 2000 had Clinton in the lead with 28%, followed by Edwards at 26% and Obama at 22%, with Richardson at 7%. So only Edwards and Richardson saw their numbers go up (though Edwards' inch up was statistically insignificant). Of significance, both Clinton and Obama went down.
On the GOP side, Romney has a double-digit lead. He sits at 25%, with Thompson at 14%, Giuliani at 13%, and McCain at 10%. This is a BIG change since May, when McCain, Giuliani, and Romney were all bunched up top at 18%, 17%, and 16%, respectively. Also of note in the poll, a majority of all Iowans favor impeachment proceedings against Cheney, including 63% of self-described independents.
USA Today's Jill Lawrence has a fun piece about the candidates' abilities to use humor on the campaign trail.
The
New York Times covers FBI director Robert Mueller’s testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday, which “sharply conflicted with Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales’s sworn statements about a 2004 confrontation in which top Justice Department officials threatened to resign over a secret intelligence operation… His testimony was a serious blow to Mr. Gonzales, who insisted at a Senate hearing on Tuesday that there were no disagreements inside the Bush administration about the program at the time of those discussions or at any other time. The director’s remarks were especially significant because Mr. Mueller is the Justice Department’s chief law enforcement official.”
From NBC's Andrew Merten
McCain today became the second GOP presidential hopeful (after Romney) to side with Clinton in her spat with Obama -- although he did not say so explicitly. During a town hall meeting in Derry, NH this afternoon, a member of the audience asked McCain what he thought about the dispute that began at Monday night’s debate. McCain used Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an example, saying, “Are we going to come out of this meeting, and the president of Iran is going to say, ‘I'm stopping the IEDs, I'm going to stop developing nuclear weapons, I will agree that Israel is going to exist,’ then fine. Then lets set up the meeting.” But he warned of the danger posed to the prestige of the presidency and the country as a whole if such a dictator would use a high-level meeting for propaganda purposes, similar to Clinton’s warning on Monday.
Said McCain in conclusion: “There's a downside to just saying, I'll sit down and have face-to-face meetings with one of these dictatorial rulers, who violate every principle of upon which this nation was founded.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per the Clinton campaign,
Hillary Clinton will deliver her own counterpunch to
Obama in an interview to appear on CNN later this afternoon -- and it includes a zinger at Obama's "politics of hope." She will say, “Well, this is getting kind of silly. I’ve been called a lot of things in my life but I’ve never been called George Bush or Dick Cheney, certainly. We have to ask what’s ever happened to the politics of hope?"
More from Clinton: “I have been saying consistently for a number of years now, we have to end the Bush era of ignoring problems, ignoring enemies and adversaries. And I have been absolutely clear that we’ve got to return to robust and effective diplomacy. But I don’t want to see the power and prestige of the United States President put at risk by rushing into meetings with the likes of Chavez, and Castro, and Ahmadinejad.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
In Iowa today,
Chris Dodd became the latest Democratic presidential candidate to unveil a comprehensive health-care plan, promising universal coverage within four years. The pillars of his plan are: 1) creating a heath insurance marketplace called Universal HealthMart, based on the Federal Employee Health Benefit Plan; 2) basing individual and business contributions to the Universal HealthMart on their ability to pay; 3) driving down premiums by leveraging negotiating power and reducing costs; and 4) making coverage portable -- that is, insurance would follow individuals, not jobs.
But unlike the Edwards and Obama campaigns, which released the costs of their health-care plans when they announced them, the Dodd camp tells First Read that they don't yet have a cost estimate for their plan.
*** UPDATE *** The Dodd campaign just told us that his plan will cost between $40-$50 billion a year in those first two years, and then $70 billion a year in the two years after that.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Public Citizen Congress Watch, a government watchdog organization which lobbies for various issues including campaign finance reform, has unveiled a new website that tracks the money trail of bundlers. Rebuilt for the 2008 season, WhiteHouseForSale lists these bundlers for all of the candidates, tracking those people both released by the campaigns and disclosed by press accounts. In a release, the organization stated "candidates should be required to disclose all bundlers’ identities, how much each raised and from whom each bundled contribution is obtained."
On a conference call with reporters, a spokesman said the organization believes all of this information should be available for everyone and views bundling with skepticism. "We are skeptical that bundling is healthy for democracy and with the lack of disclosure with bundling."
As of today, the site has nearly 1,900 bundlers listed -- with Edwards in the lead with 543 and McCain not far behind with 440. Clinton and Obama are listed with 220 and 262, respectively, and Giuliani and Romney have 132 and 230. One interesting tidbit the organization pointed out is that while McCain has such a large amount of bundlers, he has been suffering from money problems -- while Clinton and Obama have less but have raised more money.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In Iowa, Edwards laid out his plan to reform the American tax code, stating the only way to have a growing economy is to lift people out of poverty and into middle class. Saying Washington is the problem, Edwards once again called the system rigged for the lobbyists and stated he would be a president to bring about a change."You can't do this by being nice,” he said. “You have to tell the truth, you have to be strong, and you have to be willing to fight. The time to talk to them is after you've beaten them."
In order to bring the economy back on track, Edwards proposed three items: "reform our tax system to reward work instead of just rewarding wealth,” “negotiate and enforce smarter trade agreements,” and "demand, require corporate responsibility and for corporations to treat their workers fairly."
As part of his plan, Edwards called for helping the middle class in three areas: savings, work, and family. For the first two areas, he called for "Get Ahead accounts" and work bonds for low-income workers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
For the first few days after Monday's debate,
Clinton and
Obama's GOP counterparts were content to stay on the sidelines and watch their rivals spar over the issue of diplomatic concessions to rogue leaders. But in Iowa this morning, Republican candidate
Romney finally weighed in, and he's coming down on Clinton's side.
Speaking at a breakfast in Iowa, Romney ridiculed Obama for having "some special people he wants to visit" during his first term, referring to Obama's willingness to consider meeting with leaders like Venezuela's Chavez and Iran's Ahmedinejad.
"It's absolutely extraordinary that someone could be so out of touch with the nature of our world," Romney said of Obama. Romney scathingly added that Obama's philosophy mirrors that of Neville Chamberlain, the British Prime Minister who promoted a policy of "appeasement" towards Nazi Germany in the years before World War II.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
When the immigration debate was piping hot here in Washington,
Giuliani didn’t weigh in with specific policy proposals, but instead called the Senate immigration bill a “typical Washington mess.”Now, Giuliani, who has called himself pro-immigrant in the past, is calling for tougher border security, including a fence.
"I hope President Bush puts his energy now into building the fence, building a technological fence, increasing the size of the Border Patrol and creating order at the border, which is all that anyone's asking for," Giuliani said per the AP.
****UPDATE****The Giuliani campaign contacted First Read and said the former mayor has laid out four points -- including at the most recent Republican debate -- he would like to see in any immigration legislation contain going forward: (1) seal the border; (2) a universal biometric ID card; (3) a single database that all the agencies would use; and (4) identify everyone who is actually here in the country.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In another attempt to appeal to the conservative base and position himself as the conservative candidate, in Iowa today
Romney unveiled an “initiative to prevent pornography from reaching children on their computers.”In an e-mail to reporters, the Romney campaign issued a “
policy briefing” outlining his “Guarding our Children on their Computers” plan. He says this “major problem” is “easily solved through determined action.”
His plan includes making sure “every parent has access to software filters,” and he proposes tracking first-time sexual offenders by global positioning satellite, or GPS, for life. He calls this his “One Strike, You’re Ours” law.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Congressional Democrats subpoenaed White House senior adviser
Karl Rove, and Judiciary Committee Chairman
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) charged that “political considerations factored into the unprecedented firing of at least nine United States Attorneys last year," the
AP reports.“E-mails released by the Justice Department show [
Attorney General Alberto]
Gonzales’ aides conferred with Rove” on the firing of the prosecutors, the AP reports.
NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reports, while not specifically addressing the possibility of Leahy issuing a subpoena for Rove, a senior WH official responded with another hit on congress:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Obama has now taken his foreign diplomacy spat with
Clinton on the campaign trail, firing back against her criticism that his willingness to meet with world dictators is “naïve.” Said Obama this morning during an endorsement speech in Concord, NH: “I’m not afraid of losing the PR war to dictators,” continuing, “I’m not going to hide behind a bunch of rhetoric. I don’t want a continuation with Bush-Cheney. I don’t want
Bush-Cheney light. I want a fundamental change.”
As
First Read reported earlier, during a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama challenged Clinton to differentiate her policy of meeting with dictators only under certain preconditions with that of the Bush Administration. This came after an initial comment to the Quad Cities Times, followed by an on-camera interview with NBC News last night. But this is the first time Obama has brought up the disagreement -- which started during Monday night’s presidential debate -- during a campaign speech. It proved to useful in riling up the audience, garnering cheers and applause.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
Having failed to get a vote expressing no confidence in Attorney General Gonzales, four Senate Democrats today tried a new approach -- asking the Justice Department to investigate him.
In a letter to the Justice Department's solicitor general, Paul Clement, they ask him to appoint a special counsel with an exceptionally broad mandate -- to investigate whether Gonzales made false statements to Congress, whether the Justice Department has been inappropriately politicized, and whether improper political influence was involved in the decision not to prosecute any potential contempt of Congress charge.
The Justice Department says in each case of Gonzales's statements, there's an explanation that shows he was not lying to Congress.
VIDEO: Democrats seek perjury probe of Gonzales
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A spokesman from Clinton's Senate office had this response to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ letter:
“While Senator Clinton is disappointed that Secretary Gates does not repudiate Under Secretary
Edelman's unacceptable political attack, Senator Clinton nevertheless welcomes Secretary Gates's acknowledgment that congressional oversight of the war in Iraq is essential to our national debate. She continues to believe strongly that there is absolutely no room for impugning the patriotism of those who rightfully engage in Congressional oversight.
“Senator Clinton also welcomes the disclosure that the Department of Defense, according to the Secretary, is indeed planning for the redeployment of U.S. forces from Iraq, and looks forward to receiving the department's briefings. To ensure that Secretary Gates' sentiments are fulfilled, she will continue to pursue with Senator Kerry their legislation mandating that the Pentagon brief Congress on contingency planning to ensure the safe and secure redeployment of our troops from Iraq.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a conference call with reporters this morning,
Barack Obama launched another volley in his spat with
Hillary Clinton, equating her answer at Monday's debate -- saying she would NOT meet with world dictators without preconditions -- to the Bush Administration's current policy. The Bush Administration says "we're not talking to these countries unless they meet these preconditions. That is the explicit policy," Obama said during a Q&A session after announcing the endorsement he won from New Hampshire congressman
Paul Hodes (D).
"You'll have to ask Sen. Clinton what differentiates her position from their position." He added that his answer at the debate -- that he WOULD be willing to meet with the leaders of Syria, Iran, etc. with preconditions -- "sends a message that we're willing to sit down and talk, and that increases over leverage and our capacity to get something done."
CONTINUED >>
BREAKING NEWS
From NBC's Courtney Kube
NBC News has obtained a copy of a letter that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates sent to Hillary Clinton late last night in response to her complaints that Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman was dismissive of her request for information about plans for Iraq. [Click here for PDF copy of letter.]
In the three-page letter, Gates tells Clinton that he "emphatically assures you that we do not claim, suggest, or otherwise believe that congressional oversight emboldens our enemies" (as Edelman alleged in his letter last week).
He says that he is willing to discuss ways to keep the Senate updated on "conceptual thinking" on the drawdown plan. He also expresses his "continued strong support" for Edelman, but adds that he "truly regret[s] that this important discussion went astray and I also regret any misunderstanding of intention."
****UPDATE****We have copied the text of the letter below. Also, some points of note:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder digs into the Republican in-fighting in Michigan over the primary date and highlights cooperation between the McCain and Giuliani camps.
Currently Michigan’s primary is scheduled for Feb. 5th with a big asterisk. The state party and the candidates have endorsed a joint primary of Feb. 5th or earlier -- the “or earlier” is what one Giuliani supporter objects to. For the Giuliani campaign, “it's most convenient, strategy-wise, for Michigan to choose delegates on Feb. 5 or later,” Ambinder writes, because “it will dilute the momentum effect provided by Florida,” whose primary is on Jan. 29th.
And other delegate selection rules "rankle" the McCain and Giuliani campaigns.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Clinton vs. Obama, Round 3: Well, Obama apparently got the last word in the skirmish over the unsavory-world-leaders question at Monday’s debate. The last 48 hours was telling: After the debate, it appeared the Obama folks were trying to fuzz things up with Clinton's position (see Axelrod's initial post-debate quote). But yesterday, one got the sense it was the Clinton side trying to do this with Obama's position (see Holbrooke's quote below). Bottom line: Obama took Clinton's punch and seemed more comfortable hitting back. We are hearing from some Clinton fans -- not insiders -- who are wondering if in hindsight it was a mistake to hit Obama on Tuesday. Did the front-runner give the challenger some needed oxygen? Also, will Obama get in another shot at Clinton when he holds a conference call with reporters this morning announcing New Hampshire Rep. Paul Hodes’ (D) endorsement?
*** Can’t We All Just Get Along? By the way, one of the other campaigns finally weighed in on this spat -- but it was via spokesperson, not the candidate. Biden manager Luis Navarro issued the following statement: “This squabble is a distraction from the main event: defeating the Republicans and ending the war responsibly. Petty arguments about foreign policy credentials will not get mine resistant vehicles in the field any faster and will not get our troops home any sooner. Already Republicans are seeking to divide Democrats on the one issue that they have no credibility on after four and a half years of President Bush’s failed policy in Iraq." But is this all we're getting from Biden? Shouldn't he be saying something like this?
*** Another Blow For Fred? If the bad news from the last few weeks wasn’t enough before his campaign even begins (shakeup, questions about his anti-abortion views, mixed reviews of his speeches), the Washington Post reports today about his career as a trial lawyer -- a profession that’s a four-letter word in many GOP circles. Do note, however, that it is not odd to see Republicans in the South who are supportive of trial lawyers. Two prominent examples: Republicans Lindsey Graham and Richard Shelby. Also, check out GOP analyst Quin Hillyer’s advice not to give up on Thompson just yet, despite the lack of positive news in recent weeks.
*** White Paper Day: Twin policy speeches in Iowa: This morning from Des Moines, Edwards gives what his campaign is billing as a major speech on tax policy. Per advance excerpts of the speech, he will “declare war” on offshore tax havens, as well as call for an end to the loophole that allows hedge fund and private equity managers to treat most of their income as capital gains. And later today, Dodd will unveil his health-care plan at a home in Marion, IA.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback is in Iowa; Clinton is in DC; Giuliani travels to Houston; Huckabee speaks in Denver and meets with board members of the National Urban League; McCain holds a town hall meeting in New Hampshire; Obama goes to South Carolina after picking up his endorsement in New Hampshire; Richardson hits New Hampshire; and Romney visits in five different Iowa counties. Also, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack holds a $20-per-person fundraising happy hour for Clinton in New York City.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 16 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 39 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 86 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 103 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 114 days
Countdown to Iowa: 171 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 193 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 467 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 544 days
In an
exclusive on-camera interview yesterday with NBC, Obama escalated his criticism of Clinton. "I think what is irresponsible and naive is to have authorized a war without asking how we were going to get out -- and you know I think Senator Clinton hasn’t fully answered that issue.The general principle that I was laying out is that we should not be afraid as America to meet with anybody.” More: "Now, they may not like what we want to hear -- so if I’m talking to the President of Iran, I’m going to inform him that Israel is our stalwart ally, and we are going to do what's necessary to protect them -- that we will not accept a nuclear bomb in Iran, but that doesn’t mean we can’t say that face to face. And obviously, the diplomatic spadework has to be done ahead of time. The notion that I was somehow going to be inviting them over for tea next week without having initial envoys meet is ridiculous.”
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The Clinton campaign released this statement from former Clinton Administration UN ambassador Richard Holbrooke: "As she has said many times, Senator Clinton believes we need to engage in vigorous diplomacy after the cowboy approach of the Bush years. She has said she would initiate serious, responsible dialogue with nations with whom we don’t agree in order to further the national security interest of the United States. But she is right not to risk the prestige of the presidency by unconditionally committing to meet with leaders of adversarial nations."
CONTINUED >>
Here’s another article noting how the Democrats seem to be shifting their language on abortion. While the party hasn't necessarily shifted its position, there appears to be more tolerance (at least among congressional Democrats) of divergent abortion views. The GOP has a good chance of nominating a pro-choice Republican, but there's not a single pro-life Democrat running for president. But given this shift, are we a cycle or two away from that? There are a handful of Dem governors who are pro-life.
The Columbia State previews Obama, Edwards and Clinton speaking to College Democrats at the University of South Carolina. Obama speaks today, Edwards tomorrow and Clinton on Saturday.
CLINTON:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein's (D) endorsement of Clinton got a package on the
LA local news when the two senators sat down for a satellite interview with KABC. It was mostly positive, but toward the end the local reporter asked Clinton and Feinstein about the extramarital affair story that has been haunting LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. According to the reporter, Clinton stood by the mayor and said he'd remain as one of her national co-chairs. DiFi apparently got "testy" with reporters that the subject was brought up in this venue. Feinstein: "It's interesting to me that the press asks those questions. I mean here is a candidate running for president of the United States. Antonio Villaraigosa is the mayor of Los Angeles. And both of us will always work with him. His personal life is something else and leave it out of that." See their joint interview
here.
CONTINUED >>
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Iowa Christian Alliance president Steve Scheffler yesterday sent an email to the group's supporters reprimanding Giuliani and McCain for not participating in its events. The group held a candidate forum at the end of June that was attended by every GOP candidate except those two. And the group notes it’s hosting house parties throughout the state at various times in order to provide another venue for candidates to participate in their events. More from the email: "While Rudy Giuliani admittedly is pro-choice and favors special rights for homosexuals he recently stated while in Iowa that he would only appoint strict-constructionist judges to the U.S. Supreme Court who are in the mold of Chief Justice John Roberts and Samuel Alito. However, most of Giuliani’s judicial appointments during his eight years as mayor of New York were hardly in the mold of Roberts and Alito… McCain has also left many Iowa Christian voters confused regarding his stances on various issues such as stem cell research, traditional marriage, and illegal immigration. While we are thankful for the pro-life votes he has cast in the past we cannot understand why he would support the use of federal tax dollars to advance the efforts of embryonic stem cell research."
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BROWNBACK: The Kansas senator defended his push-call attacks in Iowa on Romney's -- and Romney's wife's -- stance on abortion. "If anything we're saying is untrue, I will issue an apology," the
Des Moines Register notes.
CONTINUED >>
Last week, a CNN South Carolina poll had Clinton with a sizable lead over Obama, 43%-27% -- which the Obama campaign laughed at. Well, a new
Insider Advantage (R) poll (536 respondents) conducted the day after the CNN/YouTube debate in Charleston, SC has Clinton with a 15-point lead over Obama, 43%-28%. The Clinton campaign
gleefully notes this poll, as well as this recent quote from Obama’s pollster: “We are going to outright win South Carolina.”
If the Obama folks dispute this one, they may need to release their own numbers in order to provide the pudding proof.
The AP's Beth Fouhy checks in on one of the most high-profile, yet invisible, leaders of the Democratic Party: DNC Chair Howard Dean. She notes the summer of angst he's dealing with regarding the Florida primary and its place in the primary calendar.
The New York Daily News covers Bloomberg's yesterday speech to the National Urban League, in which he said agreed with Obama on the issue of merit pay.
Per NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski, US military officials say that Army lawyers are reviewing the recommendations for disciplinary action against nine Army officers -- including retired Lt. General Phillip Kensinger -- for their role in withholding the truth about the death of former Army Ranger Pat Tillman. In Kensinger's case it may require that he be recalled to active duty to face a possible reduction in rank and reduction in retirement benefits.
The officials say the recommendations call for non-judicial punishment against the four generals and five other officers -- such as letters of reprimand, which would essentially end their military careers. There are NO recommendations for criminal action. The officials stress that no final decision has been made in Kensinger's case, which is expected to be announced sometime next week.
The New York Times front-pages the anti-Iraq war movies that Hollywood will be releasing soon. In the past, Hollywood usually gave the veteran more breathing space. William Wyler’s ‘Best Years of Our Lives,’ about the travails of those returning from World War II, was released more than a year after the war’s end. Similarly Hal Ashby’s ‘Coming Home’ and Oliver Stone’s ‘Born on the Fourth of July,’ both stories of Vietnam veterans, came well after the fall of Saigon.”
The
Washington Post: “Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick J. Leahy threatened yesterday to request a perjury investigation of Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, as Democrats said an intelligence official's statement about a classified surveillance program was at odds with Gonzales's sworn testimony.”
Give us a moment to brag. But our former colleague, Elizabeth Wilner, has been named a member of the Commission on Presidential Debates, the group charged with putting on the general election debates. Also of note, Wilner has formed a new consulting firm specializing in media and strategic communication services.
BREAKING NEWS
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Sen. Obama has ESCALATED his criticism of Hillary Clinton -- taking it to political defcon three -- in an exclusive on-camera interview with NBC News.
It is a lot tougher than what he said in the debate -- or in the Iowa newspaper interview yesterday.
During a stakeout outside his senate office, Obama said in part:
"I think what is irresponsible and naive is to have authorized a war without asking how we were going to get out -- and you know I think Senator Clinton hasn’t fully answered that issue.
"The general principle that I was laying out is that we should not be afraid as America to meet with anybody."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Clinton folks aren't the only ones who picked up an endorsement from a member of Congress today. This afternoon, the Obama campaign announced that New Jersey congressman Steve Rothman endorsed the Illinois senator.
And with yesterday's testy back-and-forth between Clinton and Obama still fresh in people's minds, Rothman delivered this line on Obama's national security credentials: “Last week’s National Intelligence Estimate proves that we are no safer than we were before the attacks of September 11th,” Rothman said in a press release. “It’s time to turn the page and bring an end to the Bush-Cheney foreign policy... Barack Obama is the best candidate for President, with the strength and character to change our broken politics and restore America’s standing in the world. He will engage in the aggressive diplomacy necessary to hold countries that pose the greatest threats to our national security accountable. Senator Obama also possesses the resolve to use military force, if necessary, to protect America.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Not only did
Hillary Clinton today pick up an endorsement from California Sen.
Dianne Feinstein (D), she also appeared before Feinstein's Senate Rules Committee, where she testified at a hearing on voting reform. "I want to commend the Chairman for her dedicated work on this issue, and I am very honored to be a co-sponsor of her legislation the Ballot Integrity Act," Clinton said, per a copy of her testimony. "Under the leadership of the Committee, I hope we can move toward real reform to fix our broken electoral system and restore the integrity of our elections."
More from Clinton: "Every citizen should have his or her right to vote protected. We must count every vote so that every vote counts. We must return integrity to our ballot process."
Was the endorsement scheduled to today's testimony? And was the hearing a platform for Clinton to discuss a political issue? Feinstein spokesman Scott Gerber says no to both questions, telling First Read that the hearing had been scheduled for weeks. Yet even this is a simple coincidence, it just adds to the perception that the Clinton campaign is doing all of the little things right -- taking advantage of every opportunity.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
You might be running for president if ... you've got hecklers.
At a quick campaign stop at a Texas airport this morning, candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson faced harassment from a young woman who was vocally displeased with the senator's conservative credentials. Her beef? Thompson's membership in the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think-tank known as an influential heavyweight on US policy making.
The disgruntled woman worked her way into a reporter scrum and peppered Thompson with questions about his membership in CFR, which she derided as "the same group that's forming the North American Union with Canada and Mexico." Thompson, chuckling, replied: "Don't fuss at me, now," and went on to describe his participation in CFR and the American Enterprise Institute -- a conservative think-tank based in DC -- as sources for his "intellectual exercise."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Sources close to the presumptive campaign tell NBC News that
Fred Thompson's fundraising is down "markedly." One claimed it has "slowed down big-time." The pace is described as a consequence of the delayed announcement to enter the race."The Friends of Fred, Inc." will report to the IRS its revenue by July 31st. Sources reveal to NBC News that number will be in the range of about $3 million. Five million dollars had been the talked-about June goal. Sources describe an early burst of donations in June and say the summer fundraising has fallen off. While additional fundraisers are planned, sources say the scheduling of fundraisers was "frozen" for a time while the team was going through some internal strains.
The Jeri Factor
Some sources describe the role of the presumed candidate's wife, Jeri, as vast and powerful. Sources say "she's integrally involved in every decision" and that Fred Thompson has "set it up so everything goes through her." Critically, that was cast as "running it like a congressional campaign" and from the "kitchen table."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Before the flurry between Obama and Clinton yesterday, both campaigns were trying to prove who is winning the numbers game. Obama bested Clinton in campaign contributors in the first six months with 258,000. But the Clinton campaign, in an effort to mute those numbers, sent out an e-mail touting that it is close to one million supporters. The e-mail calls the number “astonishing” and “humbling,” but on closer examination, the Clinton camp is counting people who have signed up for e-mails on the campaign Web site as supporters.
Does that count? After all, even we, the media, are on the Clinton e-mail list.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Romney has a healthy lead in recent Iowa polls. Tommy Thompson barely registered in last month's Mason-Dixon poll with just about 2% behind Brownback (6%) and Huckabee (7%) -- not to mention McCain, Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Romney (25%). And he had to hold a conference call last month to tell reporters he wasn’t dropping out of the presidential race.
But on his chances at the Ames straw poll, Tommy Thompson told the blog Pajamas Media on camera, “If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.” He added, “I wouldn’t say Romney’s in trouble, but I’d say I think it’s going to be between Romney and myself.”
Hmm. I wonder what the second-tier snipers (er, Brownback) will think of that.
Video: Can Thompson get traction?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Clinton vs. Obama: The two Democratic front-runners have finally engaged, rather than simply allowing their staffs to go back-and-forth. The only thing that strikes us odd about yesterday’s skirmish is that the candidates launched their attacks and counterattacks via such a small media venue (the Quad City Times). It's like two major deciding to go to war ... over the Falkland Islands. Yesterday our producers in New Hampshire tried to get Clinton to say her criticism on camera and she demurred. And neither candidate granted an interview to any other media on this issue. If neither candidate chooses to put their words on camera today, does this mean the skirmish is over?
Video: Clinton and Obama take off the gloves in 2008 spat
*** More On The Spat: Both sides appear to be going overboard on this issue: Obama's camp thinks this idea that they would do anything different than Clinton would on which world leaders they'd talk to (or even appear with) is absurd, while the Clinton camp believes Obama's answer at the debate is an example how he doesn't get that words matter and that should be a legit issue. Who was the biggest loser in yesterday’s renewed focus on Clinton versus Obama? So far, it might be the rest of the Democratic field. Indeed, how odd is it that a debate about preparation to be commander-in-chief is taking place and the three candidates with the lengthiest resumes for the job (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) are no where to be found on the debate?
*** Fred’s Shakeup: So let us get something straight: Fred Thompson is not yet a candidate, and he's already had to shake up his leadership? (Maybe that's the lesson to be learned from McCain -- get your shakeup out early!) That said, the choice of Spence Abraham is something that should make establishment Republicans happy. He's got a good reputation as a strategist -- remember, before he served in the Senate, Abraham ran the GOP House campaign committee. Still, the shakeup before the campaign started only fuels speculation among some that Thompson's fledgling candidacy has gotten off to a rocky start (mixed reviews of his speeches, questions about his conservative credentials, delays in his campaign kickoff) before it truly has begun. There’s additional speculation that Thompson’s campaign is being micro-managed by his wife, Jeri.
*** Things That Make You Go, Hmmmm: A Bloomberg presidential candidacy has always seemed remote to many of us. But this mike2008.com Web site is already more detailed about this potential candidacy than the one Fred Thompson started (imwithfred.com). The Bloomberg folks say this was done to prevent cyber-squatting, but come on. Why shouldn't we start referring to Bloomberg as officially "exploring" a presidential campaign?
*** DLC, Yeah You Used To Know Me: The AP writes that none of the Democratic presidential candidates will be attending the centrist Democratic Leadership Council’s conference this coming weekend. The news service says it’s "a snub that says less about the centrist DLC than it does about a nomination process that rewards candidates who pander to their parties' hardened cores while ignoring everybody else.” But perhaps more importantly, the DLC turned out to be wrong -- in most Democrats’ eyes -- on the Iraq war. For better or for worse, the Democratic Party is now the party of Dean and Daily Kos (in fact, at least five of the top six ’08 Dems have confirmed they’ll attend next month’s Yearly Kos conference). It worked for them in 2006… Will it be true again in 2008?
*** The E-Word: Today is as good of a day as any to understand why Giuliani is so resilient as one of the GOP front-runners. The Washington Post/ABC poll suggesting that electability is trumping questions about Giuliani's socially liberal views is one way. Then there's the LA Times’ Brownstein insightful column that pinpoints just how Giuliani has avoided getting trapped in a death spiral for those liberal social views: he's a pure federalist, advocating for states to decide on their own what social issues to legislate and how to legislate them. And then there's Hillary Clinton. As long as she's the Democratic front-runner, the electability argument will always work for Rudy, right? That's what the campaign is banking on.
*** On The Trail: Brownback is in Iowa; so is Edwards, who participates in the Des Moines Register’s Annual Bicycle Ride Across Iowa with Lance Armstrong; Huckabee is also in Iowa; McCain campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama is in New York then DC; Richardson stumps in Iowa; Romney makes a whopping seven stops in New Hampshire; and Fred Thompson travels to Houston and Dallas.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 17 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 40 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 87 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 104 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 115 days
Countdown to Iowa: 172 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 194 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 468 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 545 days
The
New York Times writes up yesterday’s back-and-forth. Clinton “sharply criticized” Obama “for the first time yesterday as inexperienced on national security, calling him ‘irresponsible and frankly naïve’ for saying he would be willing to meet without preconditions with leaders of Iran, North Korea and three other nations during his first year as president. Mr. Obama responded swiftly, saying the Clinton campaign was concocting a ‘fabricated controversy.’ He also contended that Mrs. Clinton’s skeptical view of such meetings was similar to that of President Bush.”
The Boston Globe writes that in this “tussle over foreign diplomacy … Clinton claimed the mantle of wisdom and experience, while Obama argued that America needs to chart a new course.”
The New York Daily News gets right to it and hails, “It's finally on!” The paper adds that Clinton will use the spat “to shore up her standing among key voter blocs, such as Cuban-Americans in bellwether Florida and Jewish voters who may find the idea of a sitdown with the Holocaust-denying president of Iran disturbing.”
CONTINUED >>
Wow, how things have changed. The AP's Fournier reports that not a single candidate for the president plans to attend the DLC's summer meeting in Tennessee this weekend. The closest the group is getting is Bill Clinton. It is "a snub that says less about the centrist DLC than it does about a nomination process that rewards candidates who pander to their parties' hardened cores while ignoring everybody else. ‘They have tunnel vision,’ DLC founder Al From said of his fellow Democrats… ‘Presidents are elected in the middle and they are elected by being bigger than their party. Neither parties' activists alone can elect somebody president,’ From said in a telephone interview… "Democrats have a long history of nominating people, including people who have lost badly. The challenge for Democrats is to nominate somebody who can win the election."
The AP sat in on dial-testing focus group in South Carolina. Edwards had the best score on a single question -- an 80 for his answer on healthcare. Kucinich hit the lowest mark of the night -- in the 30s -- for advocating for slave reparations. According to the group, Obama got the greatest bump from the debate, then Clinton, then Edwards. But four of 12 thought Edwards won the debate; three thought Obama won it; two said it was Clinton.
Video: Who won the CNN-YouTube debate?
BIDEN: The Los Angeles Times made contact with the guy who asked the gun question at Monday's YouTube debate, and it finds the guy didn't like getting ridiculed by Biden.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
A new
Washington Post/ABC poll shows electability is fueling Giuliani's lead in the primary, which is exactly what the Giuliani campaign could have asked for. "Nearly half of the Republicans polled said that Giuliani represents their party's best chance to win in November 2008; that is three or four times as high as the percentage who mentioned other candidates. Democrats and independents also said Giuliani would represent the Republicans' best shot at holding on to the White House… Support for Giuliani is not deep -- only a third of his supporters said they are strongly behind his candidacy. That stands in contrast to the top two Democrats in the race for their party's nomination."
The Washington Post got a quickie interview with Giuliani yesterday after a speech in California. "Giuliani said that voters are well aware of his personal difficulties -- his divorces, a strained relationship with his son. ‘Some fair, some unfair, some true, some untrue,’ he said of the stories. But he said he hopes that those will not be the measurements by which people judge him when they choose a Republican nominee next year. ‘All of it gets tested against having been in public office for that entire time, and somehow it didn't affect my performance,’ he said. ‘At moments of great personal crises, some people perform really well, some people perform horrible. That's kinda what you gotta know.’”
The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein calls Giuliani a federalist and notes it’s his way to get the GOP nod. "Giuliani is mostly running for the GOP presidential nomination as a warrior against Islamic terrorism. But his most innovative domestic idea casts him as a peacemaker on the social issues that have divided the nation since the 1960s. Giuliani argues that the best way to reduce tension about social issues is to allow states, rather than the federal government, to take the lead in responding to them. That would allow socially conservative and liberal states to each set rules that reflect the prevailing values inside their borders. Rather than perpetual combat in Washington, he insists, the nation could reach a new equilibrium as different states gravitated to different solutions."
CONTINUED >>
Yesterday, Bush
made another case that Al Qaeda in Iraq is a threat to the US. "Bush made provocative new assertions Tuesday about Al Qaeda's role in Iraq, using recently declassified information to make his case that the global battle with the terrorism network — and Americans' safety at home — hinges on keeping U.S. troops there to fight. Bush's comments were met with skepticism by some terrorism experts and former U.S. intelligence officials, who said the president exaggerated or even misrepresented the facts in Iraq… Bush's impassioned 28-minute speech was the administration's longest and most detailed argument to date that Al Qaeda in Iraq and Bin Laden's terrorist operation were one and the same. Bush used it, he acknowledged, to rebut his critics' assertions that the Iraqi militant group was not justification enough for keeping U.S. troops in the war-riven country."
The New York Times front-pages Bush’s relationship with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki. “In sessions usually lasting more than an hour, Mr. Bush, a committed Christian of Texas by way of privileged schooling in New England, and Mr. Maliki, an Iraqi Shiite by way of political exile in Iran and Syria, talk about leadership and democracy, troop deployments and their own domestic challenges. Sometimes, said an official who has sat in on the meetings, they talk about their faith in God.”
The House will take up a measure today that would ban the establishment of permanent US military bases in Iraq, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. The free-standing bill will be put forward by Rep. Barbara Lee (D), a leader of the "Progressive Caucus" in the House. Dem leaders aim to put the item on the floor this week, with two more Iraq-related measures on tap for next week. The next four weeks after that are devoted to recess.
CONTINUED >>
Legacy watch: "The latest
Washington Post-ABC News survey shows that 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Bush's job performance, matching his all-time low. In polls conducted by The Post or Gallup going back to 1938, only once has a president exceeded that level of public animosity -- and that was Richard M. Nixon, who hit 66 percent four days before he resigned."
With Bush's unpopularity hitting record highs (or is it lows?), one wonders why the GOP candidates are taking so long to create distance between themselves and the president.
Has Alaska's history of having its congressional leadership so focused on so-called pork-barrel politics finally caught up with the state? The Wall Street Journal is reporting that veteran Republican Rep. Don Young of Alaska, "now is the subject of a continuing criminal inquiry involving possible political favors for a company in Alaska, people close to the case said. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, the powerful former chairman of the Appropriations Committee and the longest-serving Senate Republican, is also now under criminal investigation, these people said."
Pegged to yesterday’s congressional Democratic news conference touting the increase in the minimum wage, the New York Times notes that Democrats are doing everything they can to avoid the “do-nothing” label. “Democrats hope to post more legislative victories in a few days, including enacting into law some of the remaining recommendations of the bipartisan Sept. 11 commission. They also want to pass a lobbying overhaul that was central to their campaign last year against the ‘culture of corruption’ so they can start their late-summer recess on a high note. Republicans agree it would represent real progress if Democrats could get those measures through and tee up a few others for the fall. But they are withering in their criticism of what the Democratic majority has — and has not — done since taking power in January.”
… and it isn’t pretty. The
Washington Post: “… Gonzales weathered one of the most contentious and hostile congressional hearings seen during the Bush administration. Democrats and the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee accused him of repeatedly misleading them and warned that he could face perjury charges if he lied to the panel. ‘I do not find your testimony credible, candidly,’ said Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), who became visibly angry at several points during his exchanges with Gonzales. ‘The committee's going to review your testimony very carefully to see if your credibility has been breached to the point of being actionable.’”
More: “Chairman Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) told Gonzales bluntly: ‘I don't trust you.’”
The New York Times: “Mr. Gonzales endured the nearly four-hour battering at the hearing with a calm, sometimes bewildered expression. He insisted he would stay on as attorney general despite his low credibility in Congress. Democratic lawmakers portrayed the Justice Department as rudderless and demoralized, and they voiced deep skepticism about his leadership, often with sarcastic and derisive criticism. For the first time, several lawmakers suggested his statements about the surveillance programs were so misleading that his testimony might lead to potential legal sanction.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama is up with a radio ad today in South Carolina. The campaign would not release how strong a buy this is. In the ad -- called “It’s Time” -- an announcer proclaims, “It’s Barack Obama time” and calls him a “soldier for justice.” The ad -- playing over soft jazz with a funk vibe -- also touts Obama’s religious, community organizing and legislative credentials. Obama repeats his theme from the NAACP forum of “We have more work to do.”
Here’s the transcript:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Friends of Fred has sent out invites for a series of fundraisers with the former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson -- having him appear at events across the country the last week of July and early August.The $1,000 a plate individual tickets and $5,000 PAC tix are being solicited online by
Imwithfred.com
The sked is a whirlwind:
--July 25 - Houston
--July 25 - Dallas
--July 26 - San Diego
--July 27 - Philadelphia
--July 30 - Washington, DC
--July 31 - Newport Coast, CA
--Aug 1 - Bel Air, CA
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
We told you earlier about some of hirings in the non-campaign campaign of Fred Thompson. Well, per the AP, now he is shaking things up. He named former senator and energy secretary Spencer Abraham and Florida GOP strategist Randy Enright as his campaign managers. They replace acting campaign manager, Tom Collamore, a former vice president of food and tobacco giant Altria. Collamore, who helped organize Thompson’s would-be campaign, will remain as an adviser.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
John Edwards called into Al Sharpton's radio show this afternoon to speak about last night's debate and his war on poverty, but he took advantage of the opportunity to offer up an apparent dig to Clinton and his other opponents. Edwards called for "big change, bold change" for the country to change a system that is "rigged for big insurance companies, drug companies, and oil companies."
"What possible reason do they have to give up their power? They're not going to give it away. We have to take it away from them," Edwards asserted. "We cannot get bold change by compromising with the people who have the power now. Compromise is not going to get us there, triangulation is not going to get us there, being careful is not going to get us there. We need somebody who's used to fighting these people and beating them and I've been doing it my whole life."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In a conference call with bloggers, McCain piled on, calling Obama’s response about talking to leaders without restrictions “naïve.” He also fired back at Gingrich who yesterday called the Republican candidates “pygmies” and said McCain would drop out once he got his matching funds. McCain said Gingrich had “no idea what he’s talking about” unless he has “listening devices” in McCain headquarters.
The New York Sun's Ryan Sager writes McCain sounded “worn and beaten down” and described his campaign as “on life support.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In an interview with the
Quad City Times Clinton called Obama’s answer to whether or not he would meet with leaders who oppose the United States “irresponsible” and “naïve.”The Davenport, Iowa paper wrote: “Clinton rejected the idea she reversed herself and added she wouldn’t foreclose talks with those leaders. But she wouldn’t promise it, either, and she added that Obama is regretting his answer today.
"'I thought that was irresponsible and frankly naive,'" the New York senator said.
We will update when we get a response from the Obama campaign.
***UPDATE 2***Listen to Obama and Clinton's interviews with the Quad City Times.
And talk about a tight campaign, a Clinton staffer also on the line treated the interview like a
conference call and told the reporter,"I think it's time to wrap up." The reporter paused a bit, asked a final question and then the call ended.
****UPDATE****Obama hits back
Obama himself responded to the Quad City Times, saying Clinton was creating a "fabricated controversy" and that what was "'irresponsible and naive' was voting to authorize the Iraq war."
“What she’s somehow maintaining is my statement could be construed as not having asked what the meeting was about. I didn’t say these guys were going to come over for a cup of coffee some afternoon,” he said. “From what I heard, the point was, well, I wouldn’t do that because it might allow leaders like Hugo Chavez to score propaganda points. I think that is absolutely wrong.”
"He likened the position to a continuation of the Bush administration diplomatic policies," the Quad City Times writes.
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Veteran Republican operative Rich Galen has signed on as a senior advisor to Fred Thompson, who is exploring a bid for the GOP presidential nomination. We are also hearing that Bob Stevenson, former Sen. Bill Frist's communications director has signed on as an advisor.
Galen, author of the popular political cyber column MULLINGS is well known in GOP circles for his savvy political communications skills. He often provides political analysis on CNN.
“Assuming he gets into the race,” Galen said, “I think Fred Thompson may well be the best combination of insider-outsider experience and possess the kind of new ideas that don’t exist in either party.”
Thompson is expected to make a formal announcement after Labor Day.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
In addition to rolling out former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to comment today on Hillary Clinton's response at last night's debate over to her response about meeting with the leaders of Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, etc., the Clinton campaign just issued a memo hitting Obama for his own remark.
"There is a clear difference between the two approaches these candidates are taking: Senator Obama has committed to presidential-level meetings with some of the world's worst dictators without precondition during his first year in office. Senator Clinton is committed to vigorous diplomacy but understands that it is a mistake to commit the power and prestige of America’s presidency years ahead of time by making such a blanket commitment."
Video: Is Clinton still the Democratic front-runner?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Courtney Kube at the Pentagon
(Editor's note: We will be frequently asking various experts from NBC News to help us with policy reality checks, particularly on the issues of the military. Here's some fact-checking from last night from Courtney Kube at the Pentagon).
Sen. Barack Obama said that he wants to begin a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and have all combat troops out by March 31st. Current U.S. military planners estimate that it will take a minimum of 9 months to withdraw all 157,000 troops from Iraq - and that would be under "permissive conditions" (not in the middle of combat operations), which is NOT the situation there now. To turn over bases, ship out all U.S. military equipment, and draw down forces (in other words, to clean up the country before they leave it) would take about 2 years -- again, that would be under permissive conditions.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) may return to the Senate this fall, his wife told the
Rapid City Journal. She said she also believes a return to the Senate would speed her husband’s recovery, fueling speculation he will likely seek reelection in 2008."When he came home from the
hospital, he made giant leaps forward that first week," Barbara Johnson said. "I think the same thing would happen once he gets back in the office and on the (Senate) floor with his colleagues and friends."
Johnson had to have emergency brain surgery in December to correct a potentially fatal condition, which produced bleeding in his brain and stroke-like symptoms.
From NBC's Chuck ToddYou've heard the expression, "everything's been said, but not everyone has said it," well, I think there are two things about last night that haven't been said yet. Then again, given the number of political analysts on the web these days, I'm probably wrong about that.
--
1. Experience. How frustrating is it for Biden/Dodd/Richardson that Clinton and Obama are spatting in such a high profile way over what constitutes "experience"? And How is it that this is an important part of the debate between Clinton and Obama and the three guys who have longer resumes than either frontrunner (or the guy in third place with the Southern accent), getting short shrift? If Biden/Dodd/Richardson can't catch fire now when there seems to be an interest in how much experience is necessary in the next Democratic nominee, then when will they catch fire? Where's Jon Lovitz when we need him? He could play Biden/Dodd/Richardson in the "SNL" debates and simply mutter: "how am I losing to these guys."
Video: The presidential race is far from over says Dodd
-- 2. Censure. Did we really have a "debate" last night that included four sitting U.S. Senators and not ONE of them was asked about Russ Feingold's censure measure?
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroSenate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) might get a real challenge in his 2008 reelection bid. Kentucky Attorney General
Greg Stumbo formed a “testing the waters” committee, called McConnell "out of touch with Kentucky" and is considering running, reports the
Louisville Courier-Journal.
McConnell, in his fifth term, has taken heat from all sides for sticking with President Bush on Iraq and initially on immigration -- before he ultimately voted against the measure. Stumbo will likely look to capitalize particularly on immigration in the conservative state. But Stumbo could have his own problems with a 2001 lawsuit by a woman, who claimed he had fathered her child while he married to another woman and was not paying child support. DNA tests showed Stumbo was, in fact, the father and he then began paying child support. He also opposed tougher drunken-driving laws in 1991 as a member of the Kentucky General Assembly and then “pleaded guilty to public intoxication and paid a $100 fine after his car ran into a ditch.”
And McConnell has raised a record-breaking amount of money for the race -- $7.6 million with $5.7 million cash on hand.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Earlier, we noted Obama appeared to sweep the focus groups -- not true. Clinton won a Survey USA instanta-poll and tied in a focus group in Nevada that CNN conducted.
The Survey USA poll showed Clinton won the debate with 39%, Obama was next with 15%, then Biden with 14%, then Edwards with 10%. She also won on the question, “Who’s the best Democratic candidate?” Here’s a full breakdown of the poll.
The Nevada focus group had Bill Richardson and Hillary Clinton in a tie with six votes each. Obama was next followed by John Edwards
Also, Senior Clinton Adviser Howard Wolfson appeared this morning on MSNBC with Tim Russert during the network’s “Super Tuesday” coverage. He pointed out the difference between Clinton and Obama on the issue of meeting with dictators and defended Clinton’s stance that it’s not realistic to pull troops out of Iraq immediately.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on a conference call with reporters that she thought Hillary Clinton's answer at last night's debate on meeting with dictators "showed she had an understanding of the whole process. It is necessary to have lower-level people make the initial contact to clear the brush away."During last night's debate, Clinton said she would not meet with dictatorial leaders "without preconditions" in her first year as president. In contrast, Obama answered that he would.
The Obama campaign today sent out a memo, claiming Clinton "reversed herself last night, disagreeing with Senator Obama's assertion that we should use every tool at the president's disposal to address problems before they become threats."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** A Star Was Born: The star of last night’s debate -- outside the real Obama Girl and one of the actors from Entourage, who both strolled around the spin room -- was the format. And we mean that as a positive: It was a great forum and a wonderful change of pace from what we've seen before. What’s more, the YouTube questions were quite good, and CNN did a good job with timing. But, and this is a BIG but, it was not a debate. Our main criticism was the moderator and his lack of understanding when news was about to break. Anderson Cooper (who's never been mistaken for a political junkie) missed a HUGE opportunity to give all of the TV networks and political reporters a chance to air/write a Clinton vs. Obama lead when he didn’t follow up with Clinton after Obama jabbed her on her war vote. That's the down side of an event that is so reliant on a technological format: The news being made gets lost. For all the fun that this format created, the candidates never actually debated.
 |
|
Video: NBC's Chuck Todd offers his first read on last night's debate
*** Clinton: She did nothing to lose her front-runner status. Obama had to go out of his way to take a shot at her (and then the moderator didn’t follow up). The contrast between Obama's answer and Clinton's on the question of if they would meet with controversial world leaders was the difference between someone running for the Democratic nomination and someone running for commander-in-chief. She got the better of him on that one (see today’s Miami Herald for proof). But on further reflection, one could argue her answer -- at least compared with Obama’s -- also seemed like something you’d hear from the current White House. And the Obama camp has passed around news clippings with past quotes from Clinton calling for engagement with Syria, Iran, and North Korea -- especially this one: ” I think it is a terrible mistake for our president to say he will not talk with bad people.”
*** Obama: While Clinton bested him on that one question (and it was important because it exemplified her experience argument), Obama has really improved from his earlier performances -- he's much better answering questions in 60 seconds, and he did a very good job tonight of getting key parts of his biography in his answers. Perhaps more importantly, he unanimously won the post-debate instant-polls. Why did Obama do so much better in the various focus groups, but Clinton did better among the pundits? It's realism vs. idealism on display. While the chattering class watches these debates with an eye on the general election, many of us may very well underestimate the pull of idealism among Democratic primary voters. Also, Obama may have also done better in the focus groups, because the last 30 minutes of the debate were his strongest -- and last impressions can have a greater influence on these people.
Video: Gravel and Obama spar on who will affect the most change
*** Edwards: He had his moments. His story about the man who couldn't get the operation in order to talk until he was 50 was riveting. And his “Hair” video is going to get plenty of play today. Yet maybe it's just us, but the debate seemed to separate Clinton and Obama from everyone else. Also, is his campaign going to get negative feedback for suggesting that he didn’t like Clinton’s outfit (when asked what he likes and doesn’t like about her)? It seemed innocent enough, but some women may have viewed the shot as having a tinge of sexism.
Video: Candidates trade gentle barbs to wrap debate
*** The Rest: Of the candidates not named Obama or Clinton, Biden probably had the best night. He was passionate when necessary and blunt when called for -- he was the straight talker on that stage Monday night. Richardson was better but didn't get much of an opportunity. Dodd, with the limited time he got, was strong as well. In fact, everyone was better last night. Practice makes perfect.
*** Ames, Here We Come: While the Democrats were debating, the second-tier Republicans were busy beating each other up in advance of the Ames Straw Poll. There's a fascinating underground campaign going on in Iowa between Brownback and Tancredo -- but will anyone pay attention?
*** On The Trail: Brownback holds a fundraiser in San Antonio, TX; Clinton participates in a forum on energy and the environment in New Hampshire; Edwards campaigns in South Carolina before heading to Georgia for a “Small Change for Big Change” fundraiser; Giuliani meets with voters in Riverside, CA; Huckabee stumps in Iowa; Hunter is in DC, where he speaks at a Christians in Cable Breakfast; McCain hits fundraisers in Michigan and Illinois; Obama is in New York City; and Richardson campaigns in Iowa.
*** Another Super Tuesday: For coverage of these events -- and much, much more -- tune into MSNBC’s all-day “Super Tuesday” coverage of politics.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 18 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 41 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 88 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 105 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 116 days
Countdown to Iowa: 173 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 195 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 469 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 546 days
One of our favorite dial testers, Rich Thau, had a group in New Hampshire of Democrats and indies. And like the CNN and Fox focus groups, his survey had Obama doing the best (in terms of improvement from pre-debate to post-debate; Obama and Edwards tied with the highest post-debate score).
Video: Handicapping the Democratic primary
We asked Thau about one specific moment -- the two answers Clinton and Obama gave to the Bush-Clinton fatigue question. Thau tells First Read: "Clinton spiked to 80 on first sentence about it being a problem Bush was elected in 2000.” But: “Proud of husband's record dips to 70s. Any one of us could be a better president than current President spikes back above 80.”
Obama: "...who has track record to bring about change" scores at 70."... who can overcome the special interests" spikes to mid 70s (high point of his answer)." So it looks like both answers worked...
CONTINUED >>
EDWARDS: Yesterday, we failed to highlight a very personal profile of Elizabeth Edwards from
Saturday's Wall Street Journal. It's something many folks should read.
RICHARDSON: The campaign is up with a
new TV ad that focuses on Iraq and notes what he did benefit-wise for National Guard troops.
BROWNBACK:
If you are wondering why Brownback is getting so aggressive on Romney of late, we've got three words for you: "Ames Straw Poll." The latest Brownback attack on Romney has to do with Romney's changing stance on gay rights, according to
CBN’s Brody. Meanwhile, Romney's not alone in getting attacked these days. Brownback’s campaign has been making
phone calls questioning Tancredo’s position on abortion rights because one of Tancredo’s campaign contributors formed a Michigan chapter of Planned Parenthood in the 1970s.
A Tancredo spokesman tells First Read the congressman was genuinely hurt and surprised when they played a recording of one of the calls for Tancredo -- particularly because Tancredo considered Brownback a friend. First Read also contacted the man who gave the donation to Tancredo, Dr. John Tanton, who told us, “I think it’s ridiculous.” Tanton, who is also the founder of the hard-line immigration group the Foundation for American Immigration Reform, said he supports Tancredo on immigration -- not on abortion. “If you’re going to be real pure and take money from only people who agree with you on every issue,” Tanton sad, “you’re going to have a pretty short campaign.”
CONTINUED >>
The Politico has some behind-the-scenes on the efforts by both Obama and Clinton to court members of Congress. Remember, on the Democratic side, members of Congress aren’t just delegates --they are SUPER-delegates, with powers beyond your imagination! Actually, they simply have the power to change their presidential preference at any moment. So it seems to us superdelegates live their life like a finger in the wind, never knowing where to turn to, before the primaries set in.
Live free and shoot machine guns? Apparently Manchester City Republicans are planning a fundraiser at a firing range next month. On Aug. 5, these Republicans will arm donors with Uzis, M-16 rifles and other automatic weapons for a target practice at a local firing range. Here's the best part: All of the GOP candidates are being invited to attend. The downside? The fundraiser is the same day as the next GOP debate set for Iowa. We can only hope some of the candidates decide to fly to Manchester for this.
Both Congress and Bush are unpopular, but Bush has lost the trust of the country on the war, according to a new
Washington Post/ABC poll. "As the president and Congress spar over war policy, both receive negative marks from the public for their handling of the situation in Iraq. But by a large margin, Americans trust Democrats rather than the president to find a solution to a conflict that remains enormously unpopular. And more than six in 10 in the new poll said Congress should have the final say on when to bring the troops home."
CONTINUED >>
NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales will testify before a feisty Senate Judiciary Committee at 9:30 am ET. While the session is billed as a general "oversight" hearing, it will likely focus on various controversies within the Justice Department he runs, such as the firing of nine US Attorneys and the warrantless surveillance program. Committee Chairman Pat Leahy may have set the tone for the hearing with a letter he sent to Gonzales last week. Leahy said he told Gonzales that when he last appeared before the committee in April, he often responded to questions "that you could 'not recall'... the most conservative count had you failing to provide answers well over 60 times."
CONTINUED >>
The Obama camp was quick out of the gate -- about 30 minutes after the debate ended -- with a press release containing a transcript of a report of CNN's focus group watching the debate.
Wolf Blitzer: Mary Snow is out in Manchester, New Hampshire, the state with the first primary watching this with some voters who are undecided, Mary, and what kind of sense did you get from those voters?
Mary Snow: Well, Wolf, there's a surprise here tonight. We're here with 24 Democrats, independents, who thought that Senator Hillary Clinton would be the best performer here tonight, but the results that we just got in, this is a focus group; show that Barack Obama got the most favorable in terms of the best performance from the 24 people who are here tonight. Of course, it's unscientific and coming in second senator Joe Biden and third John Edwards. Again, this is all unscientific results from this focus group, but clearly throughout this debate Senator Barack Obama was showing some favorable responses to his answers. Some of the things that he got favorable responses were when he talked about fighting lobbyists, particularly on health care. Wolf.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The scene in the post-debate spin room was a familiar one. Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich spoke to reporters. The front-runners did not -- but had key campaign aides and surrogates filling in instead. Yet there was one big difference: Hollywood stars also made an appearance.
When we walked into the room, we immediately spotted the actor who plays director Billy Walsh in "Entourage" (Rhys Coiro). Obama Girl was also there, too. In fact, we spied one network correspondent, who exclaimed to his camera crew: "There's Obama Girl -- let's get her."
Admittedly, none were true A-list stars. But we Washington reporters are suckers for any kind of Hollywood actor -- or even a YouTube actress.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWith so many debates and forums, there are two things that matter, overall impressions or stand-out moments. The star of this event was clearly the format, and I mean that as a positive. This was a great forum, a wonderful change of pace from what we've had before. These were good questions and CNN did a good job with timing. My only critique of the format was the moderator and his lack of understanding when a mini-debate was about to break out. Anderson Cooper (who's never been mistaken for a political junkie) missed a HUGE opportunity to give all of the TV nets and the media a chance to air/write a Clinton v. Obama lead. That's the down side of an event that is so reliant on a complicated technology format, the news being made gets lost. For all the fun that this format created, the candidates never did, um, debate.
Now, as for the overall impressions, Clinton did nothing to lose her frontrunner status. Obama had to go out of his way to take a shot at her and the moderator missed the shot and denied us a BIG moment. Clinton's answer about when/if she'd meet with certain controversial world leaders/dictators. The contrast between Obama's answer and Clinton's answer was the difference between someone running for the Dem nomination and someone running for Commander in Chief. She got the better of him on that one.
This isn't to say Obama wasn't solid, he was. In fact, he got stronger as the debate wore on. She was simply better on that one question and it was important because it exemplified her experience argument. All that said, Obama has really improved. He's much better answering questions in 60-seconds than he was in the earlier debates. He didn't get his shot off at Clinton in a way that got Cooper's attention. Is that Cooper's fault or Obama's? I say it's Cooper's but maybe Obama could have delivered the punch harder. BTW, Obama did a very good job tonight of getting key parts of his personal biography in his answers. In previous debates, his answers seemed a bit impersonal, tonight Obama came across much better and viewers got to know him a bit.
One more important Clinton-Obama exchange to highlight: the question about Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton fatigue. She had a great retort re: the 2000 election. But Obama's answer was a very good closing statement and trumped her answer because he attacked it seriously. How voters view the two answers Clinton and Obama gave, I think, will determine who the Democrats nominate. I'd love to see side-by-side dial-testing on those two answers to THAT one question.
As for the rest of the field: Edwards started the evening on the defensive (thanks to the early questions he got), but had his moments. His story about the man who couldn't get the operation in order to talk until he was 50 was riveting. But of the candidates not named Obama or Clinton, Biden probably had the best night. He was passionate when necessary and blunt when called for. He was the straight talker on that stage Monday night. Richardson was better but didn't get much of an opportunity. Dodd, with the limited time he got, was strong as well. But one always got the impression that Dodd had to crash the party in order to get attention.
Of the YouTube submissions: Dodd's was the most memorable for me. Edwards' video becomes better on second viewing but was hard to get when first haired, er, aired on CNN. None of the others were as memorable.
UPDATE: There was a legitimate question in the comments about what moment I was talking that Cooper missed. Obama criticized Clinton for being late to the game in her criticism of the Pentagon for NOT having a plan for withdrawal. My apologies for the lack of detail.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It took a while before we ever got a question on Iraq, but it was in this debate where we saw the sharpest differences between the candidates on the war. Obama finally went after Clinton's war vote. After she talked about her fight with the Pentagon over withdrawal plans, Obama said withdrawal plans -- now -- are good to discuss. But more important was thinking about such plans before voting for the war.
Richardson, meanwhile, continually stressed his plan to withdraw troops from Iraq within six months, with no residual forces. Biden talked about his plan to divide Iraq into three parts (Shiite, Sunni, and Kurd). And Kucinich and Gravel emphasized their anti-war stances.
From NBC's Chuck ToddDid CNN do Obama a favor by making his YouTube the last candidate video?
From NBC's Chuck ToddSomebody did well in debate prep! (Thank you B.B.?) That Clinton answer on the 28 years, same two families in charge, was a good one. I'm still convinced it could be a problem for her in the long run ("it" being the issue of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton fatigue), but she did well tonight on the question.
Hillary's response? "I think it was a problem that Bush was elected. I'm running on my own merits, but I am very proud of my husband's accomplishments."
Is there a better prepared candidate?
From NBC's Mark Murray
It took four debates, but we finally got a question about if Clinton wins the nomination, then the general election, and then a second term -- the country could have 28 straight years of Bushes or Clintons in the White House. Clinton sidestepped the question, delivering a blow to Bush instead. "I think it is a problem that Bush won the election in 2000," she said. "I always thought someone else won in that election."
Clinton added that she is running on her own merits, but I'm "proud of my husband's record as president."
Obama followed, "Who's got a track record to bring about change?... Who can overcome the special interest in Washington?"
From NBC's Chuck ToddWe're getting toward the end of this debate but on the issue of health care, Edwards appeared to get the best of both Clinton and Obama on the issue. Until that answer, it wasn't clear Edwards was going to have one memorable moment.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Gravel and Kucinich were the only ones who said they DIDN'T arrive in Charleston for the debate in a private jet.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroOn health care, "I've got a plan; John's got a plan. Hopefully everyone on this stage will have a plan." Hmm.
Obama then took a shot at Edwards' health care plan.
Edwards' "When are we going to do anything about this?" was a strong plead.
He did his Ryan Seacrest thing -- asking people to text "Peace."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Is this format the new town hall debate? These are prepared questions, which eliminates the robotic, nervous town hall questioners. Maybe it's because it's my generation, but I have always liked being able to have a little fun mixed with seriousness.
Traditional "town hall" formats may stick around for this general election cycle and the next and the next. But it might be the minority when my generation gets to the age where they actually vote.
From NBC's Mark MurrayHe used the metaphor of digging out of the hole of Iraq -- and the narrarator was the guy from the movie trailers. Nice!
From NBC's Chuck ToddOverall, as I've said earlier, I like this format very much. The lone downside? There's been ZERO engagement between the candidates. A few times the candidates wanted to debate but the moderator wouldn't allow it.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroI think maybe all of the questions for debates should be asked by the YouTube comics. Those were back to back hilarious questions on serious topics.
Thanks, Dennis Kucinich for bringing the mood down.
Seriously, this is a time during which many of the debates have slowed down. And at least those questions made me laugh and didn't make me reach for another snack.
NBC's Andrew MertenUpdating Chuck's observation about the E. Edwards/B. Clinton mentions: It's now 3 to 1, Elizabeth (although the third was by John Edwards).
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroAll of the other candidates strayed from their campaign ads and had some fun with their ads. Gravel's was different because he wasn't angry or frustrated. But Richardson's was same ol', same ol' resume stuff.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Was a riff of the "job interview" TV ads he's been running.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroMaybe if Gravel would be more like he was in his video -- calm, thoughtful -- maybe he'd be taken more seriously.
From NBC's Mark Murray Kucinich said that viewers could text "Peace." And he said it just like American Idol's Ryan Seacrest.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI'm taking away the praise I gave to Biden earlier about not yelling at my TV. He just yelled at me through my TV.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...to the top. Richardson wants to be challenged. Biden took it. And he is showing his foreign policy/Iraq chops. Biden looked over at Richardson and continued to look at him. Richardson did not return the look. Clinton agreed with Biden. Biden was chomping at the bit to respond to Kucinich.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe potential brilliance of user-generated questions was on display with this question to Clinton about whether a woman president would get taken seriously by Arab states who regard women as 2nd-class citizens. A member of the big media would have been criticized for asking that question, but the YouTuber cannot be attacked so easily.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton is always focused on the general election when it comes to foreign policy questions. Her answer on who she would meet with in terms of controversial foreign leaders was an example of how she's having a better time selling experience than anyone else on that stage. That was a Commander-in-Chief answer. Obama's answer was fine but she found the hole in his answer (propaganda) and filled it brilliantly.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Asked if the candidates would meet with foreign leaders from Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, etc... Obama said that he would, contrasting his foreign policy with Bush's. But Clinton said she would NOT promise to meet with them, although she said her Administration would reach out to them. "I don't want to be used for propaganda," she said.
From NBC's Chuck ToddOK, Obama just made the news of the debate, he just went after what he claims is a late call by Clinton on the demand for withdrawal plans from the Pentagon. Interesting that CNN's Cooper didn't notice the attack and allow Clinton to respond to allow a mini-debate to break out. Can't wait for the press release traffic on THAT one.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAll of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier candidates have been very good tonight. They are all improved which just shows that all of these forums and debates have been good practice. Now, as for the 4th tier (Gravel and Kucninich), they provided more of the same.
From NBC's Mark MurrayReferring to Clinton's tiff with the Pentagon over plans for withdrawal, Obama said that withdrawal plans are good now, but that the US government should have asked those kind of questions before the country went to war.
From NBC's Mark MurrayAnother clip the GOP will be playing tomorrow: "The Democrats have failed the American public."
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton again has used the Pentagon letter to her advantage. She is flexing her newly found anti-war muscles and the letter has been her Creatine -- so to speak.
Obama took shots at the White House, but didn't give a lot of specifics on the logistics and implementation of redeployment.
This is Biden's question. He wanted this one pushed. He'd love to go on about partitioning.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Turning to the question of Iraq -- finally! -- Anderson Cooper referred to a Citadel grad, Shane Childers, who died in Iraq. His picture was on the big screen in the debate hall.
When the camera turned to the candidates, some were scribbling notes, except for Edwards (in that particular screen shot), who just stared at Childers' photo. It was a pretty powerful moment.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI can't wait for some focus group results but I bet Joe Biden's Darfur answer was a home run. He was conversational and outraged without yelling at the TV. It was the rare combination of a style and substance 1-2 punch.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroAnderson Cooper told Gravel, "Actually, no" when Gravel asked if he could have more time since he's had less time to speak.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro"Where we can we should." With that, he overshadowed even Richardson, who was strong.
From NBC's Mark MurrayWe missed mentioning this earlier, but the Clinton campaign just released an email with the link to its
YouTube.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From a general election standpoint, Obama answered the gay marriage question pretty deftly. He focused on the law and civil unions which is more popular than the phrase "gay marriage."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Had the song "Hair" playing....pretty clever.
*** Update *** Here's the actual video.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDidn't Hillary Clinton vote for the war in Iraq on the basis, in part, that there were WMD in Iraq? But her YouTube debate "ad" highlighted one of the left's talking points of "failures" of the Bush administration -- that there were "zero" WMD found. We've noted her metamorphosis of sorts. Will any candidates hold her feet to the fire? And will it work? Or is the best person to define her, well, her.
From NBC's Chuck ToddNumber of Elizabeth Edwards mentions in this debate: 2. Number of Bill Clinton mentions: 1 (I think by Biden, btw). I'm counting on our own Andrew Merten to double check my work.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A North Carolina pastor, on YouTube, asked a question about John Edwards' position on gay marriage. As it turns out, the man was in the audience -- so Anderson Cooper asked him whether Edwards answered his question. "Not like what I wuld have wanted to hear."
Why? Because people were moving around and he actually couldn't HEAR Edwards.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIs it just me or did John and Elizabeth Edwards give Clinton an incredible opportunity to concentrate on the women's vote tonight? It's something Clinton didn't need a lot of help with but may have only cemented her ability to connect to women voters. Clinton got an easy chance to talk about her ability to advocate for women, something the campaign is probably ecstatic about and something she would NOT have been able to do had she not been attacked by E. Edwards last week.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In the fuzziness, I think you could make out Obama laughing at/with Kucinich on the gay marriage question.
The tally:
Kucinich: Yes
Dodd: No, but civil unions
Richardson: No but for Civil unions and domestic partnership laws with marriage rights.
We haven't really seen where Obama stands. And can I just say, "Damn" to the question from the North Carolina pastor about whether or not Edwards can justify not being for gay marriage based on religion.
Edwards: I am on a journey about this issue.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIf I were working for a rival of either Clinton or Obama, I'd be a little upset that the first half of this debate has been centered around Clinton and Obama.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
AC sidestepped (as expected) the "are you black enough?" question by saying it's not my question. Jordan's question. Hey, CNN picked 'em. But so far, poignant questions. This is why you need to have questions that are specific.
Is she feminist enough?
Clinton: I am proud to be running as a woman. I'm not running because I'm a woman. She notes her experience.
She said experience again -- that's twice. "When I'm inaugurated," she said.
Tough questions: AC trying to keep Edwards on the question. Are you better on women than Hillary? Seems nervous answering it. Just me.
I think I have the strongest, boldest ideas.
Clinton: I have a great deal of admiration for Elizabeth Edwards. I have spent my life advocating for women's rights.
Sparks. Good cutaways. Clinton looked ready to pounce. Edwards clearly didn't want to hit.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Edwards was just asked about his wife's recent comments that her husband would be a better advocate for women than Clinton. He explained that what his wife meant was that since so many women are affected by poverty and by a low minimum wage -- he's been the one who has fought the hardest to change those things.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHow long did it take to get Bill Richardson involved? 20 minutes? 22 minutes? My laptop clock is fast but it says it is 7:25.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...it's Bill Richardson. There he is. Not much face time so far for the Gov. And someone tell him to tuck in his ear piece. Looks like some kind of fake ear.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJohn Edwards answered the reparations question about as well as he could considering his stance on the issue itself. That mortgage example was fascinating and thought provoking. Obama ducked the question pretty well because, correct me if I'm wrong, but he didn't really say if he was for or against reparations. I guess Obama is against reparations.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroIn the words of Ben Stein: "Anyone, anyone?"
Obama huge cheers for what seemed like a dodge. "The kind of reparations we need in South Carolina are in the schools."
Kucinich, ah ha. He's the only Dem for slave reparations.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Edwards said no, but that there "are other things we can do."
Obama said the reparations we need are investment for schools like in South Carolina.
*** Update *** Kucinich was the only to one to say he favors reparations for slavery.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI've been a quiet potential critic of this debate for some weeks but so far, I like it.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...the bunny? According to Dodd. What is this the Super Bowl with these free candidate spots?
None the less, kind of funny.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBiden picks Chuck Hagel as a Republican he could have as his VP. Hagel, of course, is some of Washington's dark horse pick for VP for either Clinton or Obama. Hagel is to the Republicans what Lieberman is to the Democrats.
Both Biden and Edwards said Hagel would be a good veep choice -- for a Republican, sort of.
From NBC's Mark MurrayWas a spoof on Dodd's white hair....
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...still angry. Obama had a solid response to Gravel's attack on bundling and got cheers from the audience.
By the way, notice CNN's "jump cuts" -- the ultra closeup on Gravel's face, etc.
From NBC's Mark MurrayHe just took a shot at the Democratic front-runners. "You are not going to see any change if these people are elected." Has Gravel turned into a GOP plant? The RNC couldn't have said it better.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAlready, both Obama and Clinton are both doing a better job of getting their biographies in their answers early on. Obama immediately went into his non-Washington experience and Clinton talked about being ready on day 1 to implement the change.
From NBC's Mark MurrayWhile Obama talked about change, Clinton emphasized her trump card -- experience -- in her first question. "I think the Democrats are united for change," she said. "This issue is which of us are ready to lead from Day One."
From NBC's Chuck ToddFascinating question to Kucinich because CNN allowed the questioner to create a first tier: Clinton and Obama.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroAnderson Cooper is coming out fighting with a little biting humor and sarcasm, Senator Biden. Obama seemed a little put off by Cooper coming right at him with the "inexperience" question. So far, Cooper is doing a good job peppering the candidates. Should be a quick moving debate.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThanks to Senator Chris Dodd for letting viewers know where the debate is taking place (The Citadel). With all this YouTube stuff, I forgot.
From NBC's Mark MurrayFirst question tonight, which first went to Dodd and then to Obama, was right down the middle for Obama -- on change. "Washington has to change," he said. It's that point his advisers have told he'll touch on a lot tonight.
From NBC's Chuck ToddA question we have to get off our chest: Is YouTube a media organization or a corporate entity? Could another network gotten away with, say, a Blackberry-CNN debate or an I-Phone-CNN debate? We're not just talking about the blurring of the line of new media and old, but what about the corporate world and the media world? I know, call me a G.E. pot, but, I feel like the question hasn't been debated enough about whether YouTube-Google, essentially, bought the title sponsorship of this debate?
From NBC's Chuck ToddSome quick early handicapping. A solid campaign source wanted to make sure we understood that John Edwards was not going to go on the attack tonight. There had been lots of speculation yesterday and today that with more polls coming out showing Edwards slipping out of the so-called first tier that he'd be the aggressor tonight. Well, we've been assured, he'd be no more aggressive than he has been in previous gatherings. Should be interesting tonight to see if the lower-tier candidates decide to take shots at Edwards for trying to weed them out of the debates.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumAt tonight's CNN/YouTube Democratic debate, technology takes the stage front and center, and the Obama campaign is taking advantage of technology to promote his appearance at the debate -- via his text messaging service. We received the following text from the Obama campaign at 3:12 this afternoon:
"Watch Barack debate tonight live on CNN! 7pm EDT. REPLY back with your name and your thoughts during & after the debate. We will post to our blog & discuss."
All the Obama campaign needs now is to ask supporters to send their thoughts via cell phone video, and the campaign could post those on Obama's YouTube page -- keeping pace with the theme of the evening.
From NBC's Mark Murray
CHARLESTON, SC -- By just looking around here in the press filing compound, we can already tell this is going to be a very different debate. On the stage in the so-called "spin room," we spotted several Google employees lounging on beanbags while blogging -- which isn't a sight the Washington political press corps sees every day.
And there's even a snack room for the press that's been Google-fied: It's filled with tons of candy bins (storing M&Ms, sour patch kids, and gummy worms), a pool table, and tons of coffee. "If I worked at Google, I'd weigh 1,000 pounds," we heard one journalist say while munching on peanut M&Ms.
So far, so good.
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
Fred “I’m STILL not a candidate” Thompson is
raising money tonight in Alabama at a $1,000-per-couple event. Thompson is reporting his fundraising on July 31st so there's a real push in Thompson world to raise a bunch of money before he has to report his "testing the waters" committee to the IRS.
From NBC's Mark Murray
CHARLESTON, SC -- First Read is now here at The Citadel, the site of tonight's CNN/YouTube debate. I'll be live-blogging this Democratic debate from the nicely air-conditioned (!) filing center, while Chuck and Domenico will be doing the same from DC. So, beginning at 7:00 pm ET, be sure to check in early an often for instant updates and analysis.Here are some notes on the debate, per CNN. The candidates will be staged (from left to right):
Gravel,
Dodd,
Edwards,
Clinton,
Obama,
Richardson,
Biden, and
Kucinich. Also, more than 3,000 YouTube videos have been submitted for questions. And the candidates' own YouTubes will appear throughout the debate.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
As First Read noted last week, GOP dark horse candidate Ron Paul now has more cash on hand than once-supposed frontrunner John McCain. While the Texas congressman hasn’t held nearly as financially demanding nationwide schedule as McCain, he has developed a grassroots following that aids in spreading name recognition and raising money. We, at the NBC Political Unit, were interested in Paul’s grassroot support -- which has been dubbed “The Ron Paul Revolution” -- and decided to attend an organizational meeting/pizza party here in Washington to see how the group operates.
Meeting on a rooftop deck of a downtown Washington apartment building, about 50 Paul supporters -- relying heavily on the internet for their organizational and social networking -- got together Friday evening to discuss campaign volunteering activities, make a YouTube video, and of course, raise some money for their candidate (bringing in $2,500 that night). Jeff Frazee, the 24-year-old organizer of the event, who will soon be starting as a youth coordinator for the official campaign, said that spreading name recognition is a primary goal of the group, and that this meeting served mainly as a meet-and-greet for members and to plan future activities, such as handing out Paul pamphlets at subway stops and baseball games. “The more people learn about Ron Paul, the higher his polling numbers go,” said Frazee, adding that the inverse is true Republican front-runner Giuliani.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Brownback fired away from the second tier …again at Romney -- this time questioning his support of the Boy Scouts. And he is even swinging away at Tancredo.The Brownback camp, which has sent out almost weekly e-mails criticizing Romney’s positions on various issues, hits this time with the headline, “Romney Hostile to Boy Scout Leadership and Principles: Supports gay scout leaders, was cold to Scout participation in Olympics.”
They cite that Romney said in his 1994 Senate run against Ted Kennedy, “I feel that all people should be allowed to participate in the Boy Scouts regardless of their sexual orientation."
They also dig up a quote from Boy Scout official Marty Latimer, who claimed Romney shut them out of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. “We don't understand what's wrong,” Latimer said. “They just don't want us and won't talk to us.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Libby Leist
At the State Department gaggle today, spokesman Sean McCormack addressed the Washington Post report from Saturday that said the US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, is pressing officials in Washington to grant immigrant visas to all Iraqis who have worked for the US government in Iraq. The Post reports Crocker sent a cable to the State Department warning that many of these Iraqis are targets of murder and kidnapping for their work with the United States and the embassy risks losing valuable employees if they can't be guaranteed future protection in the United States.
McCormack pushed back saying the U.S. was already working on this issue and he told reporters to "talk to Ryan (Crocker). I dont know what he had in mind." He said that Crocker's appeal was "basically a lap behind in terms of steps we're already taking"
McCormack admitted that he hadn't seen the cable but said it was "a bit stale" and several weeks old. "We've already been on top of the matter," he argued.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani is out defining himself as someone who gets things done when others say it's "impossible." Three 60-second radio ads entitled "
Out of Control," "
Will Do" and "
Garbage Can" will begin airing tomorrow in New Hampshire and Iowa. In them, he touts his record as mayor of New York City -- cutting crime, welfare rolls, taxes and spending. He says New York was once the "crime" and "welfare" capital of the world before he came along. He professes -- as he does in his Twelve Commitments -- to "restore fiscal discipline," "cut taxes" and "reform the tax code."
"Today's ads once again make clear Mayor Giuliani is the true fiscal conservative in this race with the track record to back it up, not just empty rhetoric," Giuliani Director of Strategy Brent Seaborn said in an e-mail release. Seaborn added that these "are the first of many ads our campaign will release in the months to come."
Here are the transcripts of the ads:
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Dem Debate No. 4: Tonight’s CNN/YouTube Democratic debate from Charleston, SC will feature the eight Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- responding to video questions submitted by the public. This debate, the first one of the cycle to be sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee and fourth one overall in the Dem race, begins at 7:00 pm ET. Will style trump substance? After all, technology is the star of tonight's debate, which makes normal debate expectations hard to assess. Many of the campaigns seem intent on taking a backseat to the technology. Still, expect the unexpected, right? It's YouTube, and one assumes CNN is going to take advantage of the fact that they can't be held responsible for the user questions. Will they cross some question lines that they wouldn't do with their own moderator? The candidates, we assume, have prepped for that outcome.
*** YouTube As A Weapon…: In recent years, the Internet has become an essential tool -- and even weapon -- in presidential campaigns. In 2000, campaign Web sites became ubiquitous. 2004 brought us the proliferation of political blogs, as well as the use of the Web to raise huge sums of money. And so far in the 2008 cycle, YouTube has become the latest Internet fixture in American politics, giving almost anyone the power to make their own campaign ads or immediately post a speech or gaffe. The examples are numerous: that anti-Hillary “1984” video, the ”I Feel Pretty” spoof on Edwards, and the tons of YouTubes (obviously posted by opponents) exposing a candidate’s flip-flops and controversial statements. How powerful has YouTube become? Without it, George Allen would still be in the US Senate and on the presidential campaign trail.
*** … And As A Barrel Of Fun: But YouTube also has become an instant source of entertainment and laughs in a business noted more for its nastiness. Even the most cynical of political observers have chuckled as Obama Girl, Hillary Girl, and Giuliani Girl have strutted their stuff online. They have made politics fun. Just check out something like Hardball’s campaign ad challenge.
*** The Anti-War Hillary: And just in time for tonight’s debate, there’s a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing Clinton with a sizable lead over Obama among Democrats, 45%-30%. Edwards comes in third at 12%, and Richardson fourth at 3%. Perhaps the most interesting result in the poll: Clinton “has a 51 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama among those in favor of a complete, immediate withdrawal.” As we’ve mentioned before, how Hillary has evolved in the last few months from the candidate with the biggest problem with Iraq to an anti-war candidate -- see her recent battle with the Pentagon, which was a media homerun -- might be the most underreported story of the campaign cycle so far. Indeed, save for fundraising, one can argue that Clinton has won every other invisible metric so far. A cynic may simply claim she's winning the pander primary (don’t miss her tough words on Yucca Mountain), but is that a bad thing right now?
VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd on Clinton's commanding lead in the newest poll
*** Censure Or Sensibility: The last time Russ Feingold proposed a censure resolution, there wasn't a full-fledged presidential campaign. Clearly, the issue will come up in tonight's debate (right, CNN? hint, hint). Since it’s a meaningless resolution, doesn't it make it easier for presidential candidates serving in the Senate to vote for it? Or because it's meaningless, does it make it easier to ignore? What will also be interesting is if Feingold's resolution sparks more coverage of polls that have shown a growing number of voters supportive of impeachment -- be it for Bush or Cheney.
*** What Happened To The Vitter Story? After an initial flurry of press -- from his press conference to his first day back at work in Washington -- the coverage of Vitter has come to a virtual standstill. In fact, Sean Hannity’s apparent call for his resignation late last week didn’t even advance the story. Are journalists and political opponents just keeping their powder dry for now? Or did Wendy Vitter scare us that much?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani gives a speech on energy in San Francisco; Huckabee, in Iowa, discusses health care; and McCain delivers remarks to the Economic Club of Southwest Michigan. Also, Gingrich gives a briefing at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in DC.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 19 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 42 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 89 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 106 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 117 days
Countdown to Iowa: 174 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 196 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 470 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 547 days
The
New York Times curtain-raises tonight’s CNN/YouTube debate from Charleston, SC. “People have sent in more than 2,000 online videos to YouTube.com, where they are posted… A scan of the videos submitted to YouTube shows most video-makers taking a straightforward approach, sitting at home and talking directly into the camera. The questions cover expected topics like health care, student loans and the crisis in Darfur, though some are asked in a provocative way. And many veer into unexpected territory.”
The Columbia State also tees up the debate.
The Washington Post notes that this is the first “official” Democratic debate. “And already, debate fatigue is setting in. The Democratic contenders have taken part in three ‘unofficial’ debates this year, on top of numerous other ‘forums’ sponsored by various political constituencies. The schedule is only going to get more demanding…”
In advance of
