First thoughts
Posted: Tuesday, July 03, 2007 9:10 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Base Politics: What would have happened had President Bush NOT commuted Scooter Libby’s prison sentence? Sixty percent of Republicans still approve of Bush's job. Had he let Libby go to jail, that number would have dropped further. His approval rating among Democrats -- and even independents -- can't get much lower. Also, imagine the morale level of White House staffers had Bush let Libby go to prison. If the president hadn't showed loyalty to Libby, wouldn't that have sent the message that he doesn’t value loyalty, which would possibly open the floodgates for staffers to start venting publicly? And one can't help but wonder if this semi-vacation week was viewed as the ideal time to slip this through, hoping it would fade by the end of the week.
*** Even Paris Hilton Served Time:
But then again, can Republicans try to persuade voters in 2008 and beyond that they are the party or rule and law after Bush commuted the sentence of a man who committed perjury -- a crime for which plenty of people are serving time behind bars? In fact, the White House will not be looking forward to the number of "example" cases that various media outlets will unearth about those who didn't get a similar hearing from Bush. And get ready for to hear this line a lot: Even Paris Hilton spent a few days in jail. At his 2000 GOP convention speech, which in part was a subtle dig at the Clinton Administration’s ethical lapses, Bush said: “And so, when I put my hand on the Bible, I will swear to not only uphold the laws of our land, I will swear to uphold the honor and dignity of the office to which I have been elected, so help me God.” Is that true anymore?
*** “Law & Order” Republicans? What would Arthur Branch have done? Well, we do know what the actor who used to play him, Fred Thompson, said about Libby: “This will allow a good American, who has done a lot for his country, to resume his life." Giuliani, the former prosecutor, said in his own statement last night: "After evaluating the facts, the President came to a reasonable decision and I believe the decision was correct." Also, realize that Clinton was the LAST major Democratic candidate to issue a release on the Libby decision; it came, in fact, a few hours later than her five main rivals’ statements did. Considering how she ducked answering this question a few weeks ago at the AFSCME forum and Libby's connection to the infamous Clinton-era Marc Rich pardon, this is a news story the Clinton camp can't wait for to be over.
*** Where Did The Money Go?
Libby certainly kept the news about McCain’s disappointing second quarter and his campaign’s layoffs from becoming yesterday’s BIG story. But for those wondering why McCain isn't finished now, ask yourself: What’s his incentive of getting out? Do Romney/Giuliani/Thompson have a lock on anything yet? How likely will those candidates implode? Now you see why McCain can still become the last man standing. Yet the big question we have is: How did the campaign spend $23 million? Remember, although it didn’t meet expectations, it raised nearly $25 million in the first six months of this year. That's not chump change. (In fact, it's about the same amount of money John Edwards has raised to date.) Auditing the campaign will be of interest to some reporters come July 15.
*** Halftime: Since we're at the halfway point of the year, let's do a quick look at what’s happened in the 2008 race these first six months: Rudy's been more resilient than predicted; McCain has not; Fred Thompson was making fundraising calls for McCain six months ago; but no Republican has had a better six months than Romney. Bottom line: The GOP race is every bit as unsettled as the Democratic race was in 2004. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, it's no surprise that Clinton has remained strong. But six months ago, would you have believed that Obama was outraising her and was a solid second in most polls? Also, is Edwards fading or are Hillary and Obama simply setting a pace most candidates can't keep up with? And how many had Richardson and not Dodd as the second tier candidate catching a spark?
*** On The Trail: Most everyone is in Iowa: Biden, Dodd, and Romney make five stops in the Hawkeye State; Brownback makes four; Obama three; and Clinton makes two, with husband Bill. Elsewhere, Edwards is in North Carolina; Kucinich and Richardson address the National Education Association in Philadelphia and then Richardson heads to New Hampshire; McCain is in Iraq; and Paul presents medals to veterans in his district.
*** And Happy Fourth Of July: The morning edition of First Read will be taking a break over the holiday, and we’ll return bright and early on Monday, July 9. However, we will post updates on the First Read site as news warrants.
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