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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Iraq

Posted: Friday, July 13, 2007 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

The New York Times makes this point: “President Bush’s Iraq strategy now boils down to this: He is trying to buy time for a surge that is living on borrowed time.” 

The Washington Post's Baker notes that Iraq policy is unlikely to shift in the very near-term: "The almost-certain result, according to strategists in both parties, will be at least two more months of anger and posturing but no change in direction.” By the way, the other part of Baker's analysis piece on the politics of Iraq that’s striking -- the White House’s new Senate goalpost is 67 votes versus 60 votes. Forget avoiding filibusters; it's now about sustaining vetoes. Are there really 18-20 Republicans ready to break with Bush on Iraq? Probably not.

A day after his news conference yesterday, Bush participates in a video teleconference this morning with Iraq provincial reconstruction leaders, as well as brigade combat commanders.

The New York Times also delves into a topic area that will dominate the debate today, especially among liberal bloggers: Bush's use of al Qaeda as the main Iraq boogeyman. "In rebuffing calls to bring troops home from Iraq, President Bush on Thursday employed a stark and ominous defense. ‘The same folks that are bombing innocent people in Iraq,’ he said, ‘were the ones who attacked us in America on September the 11th, and that’s why what happens in Iraq matters to the security here at home. It is an argument Mr. Bush has been making with frequency in the past few months, as the challenges to the continuation of the war have grown. On Thursday alone, he referred at least 30 times to Al Qaeda or its presence in Iraq.”

USA Today: “For the sixth time this year, the House on Thursday voted against President Bush's Iraq policy, setting the stage for a series of Senate roll calls next week… The 223-201 House vote in favor of the deadline underscored the complexities of the Iraq issue. In February, 17 Republicans opposed the president's plan to increase troop levels in Iraq when the House voted 246-182 in favor of a non-binding resolution of disapproval. Yet four Republicans voted Thursday to withdraw troops. Ten Democrats voted against it.”

NBC’s Mike Viqueira lists the reasons why only four Republicans crossed the line last night: 1) GOP leaders made the case that this was an empty political vote; 2) they promised hold the line for three more weeks until recess -- when they get back after Labor Day it all changes and there will be plenty of company and cover to vote for withdrawal; and 3) the bill’s language wasn't worth defecting for -- the measure does not specify troop levels, and there could be a far smaller reduction than envisioned by proponents.

Today in Concord, NH McCain will give a speech on Iraq and global terrorism. And according to excerpts of his speech, he will make many of the same arguments that President Bush did yesterday. “To talk about the struggle against Islamic extremists is, of necessity, to talk about our war with al Qaeda in Iraq,” McCain will say. “Many Democrats claim this is a conflict we cannot win. They ignore the consequences of a US defeat at the hands of al Qaeda – and some ignore al Qaeda altogether. Just this week, Senators Clinton and Byrd wrote an op-ed about the war in Iraq and never once mentioned al Qaeda or the terrorist presence in Iraq. Foreign jihadists—Al Qaeda operatives--are responsible for at least 80% of the suicide bombings that are the driving force of sectarian strife. They are in this war to win and we cannot let them.”
 
More from McCain: “Defeatism will not buy peace in our time. It will only lead to more bloodshed—and to more American casualties in the future. If we choose to lose in Iraq, our enemies will hit us harder in Afghanistan hoping to erode our political will and encourage calls in Western capitals for withdrawal and accommodation with our enemy there as well… In November 2008 the American people will decide with their votes how and where this war will be fought or if it will be fought at all. I have told you how I intend to fight this war. Other candidates will argue for a different course. Democratic candidates for President will argue for the course of cutting our losses and withdrawing from the threat in the vain hope it will not follow us here. I cannot join them in such wishful and very dangerous thinking.”

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I think inthemiddle is jerry's alter-ego.  jerry's posts have been a bit more civil, only to be offset by the viciousness of inthemiddle.  both are from texas, and you never see them in a photo together! And whatever the number is, it is too many for this war in Iraq.  When your enemy is stronger 6 years after their initial attack, you are doing something wrong.  can't blame it on the dems since bush has been in power all this time; yet the repugs continue with this abomination!
Mark Y, the poster has directed his points to me in the past in the same belligerent manner. Once upon a time he was Chris then dog eared soldier now in the middle and probaby more.The tone gives it all away. The message is always the same. I am unpatriotic. and no nothing.
Desmond, notice he always says the only troops against the war are 'disgruntled National Guard'?  Either that's a common term bandied about in Texas, or it is coming from the same fellow.  He reminds me of the military moms and wives that have desperation in their voices and their eyes as they struggle to find something, anything to shore up their belief in Bush.  Many of them resort to name calling.  It's terribly sad that he thinks we are trying to break the spirit of the military.
Desmond: My name is Chris and I was a Dog Faced Soldier once upon a time before I went SF. If you know so much you would know what a Dog Face Soldier is. I make my point once again. You guys constantly talk about things you know nothing of. Stick to things you know something about, like the color of your car, the color of your drawers you have on, etc. The way you guys attack Bush on here constantly, you damn right I have something to say. I use to be very civil on here until people starting coming at me incorrectly. When you step to me I'm going to handle my biz.
Well, after all these months one has the courage to own up to who one is. Thank you for confirming what I already knew. And thank you for once again telling me that I have no say in the policies put forth by my country. Should I assume to have a name rank and serial file nuumber now? Perhaps then I would gain some respect in your eyes. I chose not to enter the military for my career. And if I had to do it all over again, I would say that I made the right choice for myself. I do not agree with the policy, not the people in the service who are told to implement the policy.
inthemiddletexas, you want know why people attack the dunce in chief, I'll tell you. he is dumber than a box of rocks, stubborn as a damned mule and will allow people to out a CIA operative wich is if you don't know is treasoness and he thinks it's old news and we should move on.  He has contradicticted himself more than once could count and oh by the way allowed his party to call the veterans that do not agree with his policy unpatriotic.  You think that you are the only one who has sole right to soldiers going off to battle, guess what jerk your not!!!!!!  You attack people the same way the GOP is doing to people.  The dunce in chief said "Dead or alive" or UBL and guess what no dice and you think that UBL's capture would be bad, I guess when Hitler cornered that was bad based on your assumption of UBL.  You are not the only one who has the right to talk about soldiers and their experiences because people like me long before you have been there, also people who have family involved also have the right to talk.  I guess you are not a champion of free speech?  What a soldier you must have been?   FRAG Comes to mind!!!
And unless you are President Bush, I fail to see how my criticism of him, which is not based on hate, reflects onto  you, someone I cannot even put a face to.And since you do not know who I am, do not presume that I post  about things  I know nothing about.
IntheMIDDLE-you are obviously very angry, bitter, and delusional if you think;like the despicable meglomanic you idolize;we are going to be bullied by you. Obviously you get preverse pleasure out of controlling and intimitating others considering your previous line of work. What is with...."When you step to me I'M GOING HANDLE MY BIZ" I suggest you go back to school and learn proper English and what's called syntax.
E N D   T  H  E   W  A  R   " N  O  W "   !
 "they are coming here"  on what scale? this is the biggest scare tactic going on . I am surprised to see McCain using it. It targets women voters because there are lots of them and it worked last time.
They are certainly not coming here until after the election at least. And if they do come here we will wipe them out. Coming here?    
Al Bundy- he didn't bring Helen THomas into this discussion, you did on our 4:15 post.  The lady asks numb-nuts a legit question, so she deserves to be turned on?  (I mean turned on as in 'turned against', not turned on as in 'getting stoned', which you seem to have some familiarity with??)
>> And don't call me Scotty.

Sorry Scotty.
PRESIDENT Decider stated that "Congress aught not be running this war." How true. We have a half-wit narcissist fascist puppet leader too stupid to find oil in Texas or keep Sammy Sosa in his ball club to run it, just like God intended.
Oh I can be nice and civil and easy-going as anybody.  But even though I have tried to be nicer, you libs still bring it on, so that's when I ramp it up.  I'm also doing more research, the things you find on candidates on here and I have'nt even mentioned some of the things that Hillary and John Edwards have gotten themselves into, makes me wonder if we would be better off.  But, as long as we still have a first amendment and this blog some fair and balanced chat, you'll see me for quite a while.  So get used to it.  And Juan, JUDO???  LOL.  One encounter was a judo person, I sent him back for extra lessons and ended up going to class with him.  Threatening people with violence....are you sure you are a liberal?
jerry/corpus christi,  jerry why do you and others persist in instigating fights.  Cheney/Bush were looking for a fight then to illegally invade Iraq. So they drew up plans that would get them there.  The dismisal of the information of "ABLE DANGER" that the Pentagon surpressed with 15 whistleblowers with information that would have saved the world trade center, then the dismissal of Jul.10 and Aug 6, 2001 Presidential Daily Briefings ignored by Rice/Bush on vacation at Crawford Tx., then the delays caused by the neocon group to try to derail the hearing of the 911 committee that were of concern of the Jersey Girls, imagine 1 1/2 years of delays that gave this Cheney/Bush neocons time to get things in place to invade a totally weakest, poorest, defenseless and most contained country in the middle east.

John McCain and you are totally off base when you say fight them there rather than here.  It is my understanding that our military walked right into a band of "Cinci de Mayo" insurgents. Remember Nepoleon III well armed troops at Publo, Mexico in 1862 being repelled by a group of mexicans with rifles and bayonets and macheties on May 5, 1862? I hope you and the other cowards would take up arms should our soil be invaded by more than four(4)airplanes.

All that can be said is, this administration wanted to establish a middle east super power of a permanent military and largest "Colossal" Embassy in the world for the middle east presence of the world greatest controlling force know to mankind.

Sorry jerry, it was lost even before it began. The only thing that was accomplished was to reenforce the world opinion against the USA. And to cause more violence in the middle east, now Iran is 1,000 miles closer to Israel and the fight you are so proud of is between Iran and Arab countries with the targets on our military backs, 1 killed, send 4 replacements to their early grave of our brave mititary just following a fools mission. 1,535 days since "Misson Accomplished" now with 3,611 dead and 27,000 wounded.

Others don't hate us, our government provoked hatred.  King George was the crowning fool that was of the Pentagon/Cheney and Ahmad Chalibi. Imagine jerry boy the first pick of our Pentagon to lead Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein was Ahmad Chalibi, which by the way only drew .001% of the 12 million votes cast in the election. That while stealing 263 tons of $100.00 dollar bills of our money.  Now who is the fools. The USA is not destine to control the middle east. Too much religious history to over come the march of 5,000 years.

In the middle/Texas shouldn't our armed forces be required to in this day and age to understand the customs, traditions and language before engaging the supposed enemy. There is word out in the papers that the Marine recruiting training center in San Diego is teaching ethical standards. We were taught to fight to the death by occupying forces, but these are not occupying forces, just men and women trying to protect their homeland.  

Maliki said, he could defend Iraq without our military troops so it didn't matter whether they stayed or go home. What does that tell you about their opinion of the USA.  Micheal Ware said when asked the Iraqis about the presence of US forces, it didn't matter at all, as they are no better off now than they were with Saddam Hussein. What a sad commentary of this illegal invasion just for a position in the middle east.
Inthemiddle, Texas, Why did King George issue a executive priviledge order about the Pat Tillman friendly fire death?

Another abuse of power by a coward that wouldn't fight for his country in '68 in Nam. Imagine his Father musseled his way to the top of the list and then screwed the Texas Air National Guard out of thousands of dollars for flight training and then ran and hid from a physcial just to avoid high altitude combat status.  Now that is real leadership, don't you think, BTW, I don't think anyone who didn't serve in Nam is entitled to a pass, not even "Dead Eye Dick"

I served two enlistments in the USAF between '54 and 62, was married with 6 children and was refused a requst to go to a close support bombing in Korea (CSB) detachment toward the end of the Korean conflict.
inthemiddle, texas, if you are referring to Keith Olberman of "Countdown" I'm surprise you follow his program anytime at all.  He and Lou Dobbs of CNN are the only truth sayers on the Talk shows.  Keith tells you what and why and as Harry Truman would say "when they say give them "Hell" I tell them the truth they think it is "Hell".  Lou Dobbs has brought out more coverups and behind the scenes as: Ramos and Compeon enprisonment by a Justic Dept Judge (Johnny Sutton) of El Paso, Tx. and about the now talked about "Union of North America" which is now being discussed in our government or about the Randi Rhodes plea for callers on Lou Dobbs show last year to call your representive about the proposed high yeild explosion in Nevada that would penetrate deep in the earth.  The switch board was jammed with calls to the congressman and two weeks later Barbara Starr on CNN was showing the site where this high explosion was have to taken place and was cancelled by the loud protest of concern of citizens, that it was the prelude to the Low Yeild Nuclear Bunker Busting Bomb to use on N. Korea, Iran. Pakistan or any other rouge nation the US thought might do us harm.  

Why so many closed doors for 12 out of 14 years that our country was given away. I always thought this was "AMERICA" and not the Soviet Union.  
Mel, I can assure you there are more military folks than just national guardsmen who are critical of our current Iraq policies. Virginia is a good case to prove that point. It has one of the highest concentration of both active military and military retirees, proportionately. The tidewater area is the largest concentration of stateside active forces, with major Navy, Air Force and Army bases, plus joint commands, and even two joint Navy-Marine Corps bases.

In 2006, we had a senator running for re-election who was seen as unbeatable. In fact, people were talking about George Allen as the insider's frontrunner for president in 2008. Jim Webb took him on, basically running a one-issue campaign against the Iraq occupation, and won.

Webb was able to do this because he did come into the race with a lot of credibility with military folks. He's not just a Cindy Sheehan type, but instead can talk substantively about military issues - and maybe more importantly, can get a pro-military state like Virginia to listen when he talks. And, granted, Allen proved to not be a great candidate when in a tough race. He blundered a little.

But those qualifiers aside, its still a pretty strong indicator that not all military folks are what the Sean Hannity's out there would like for them to be.
Hey Russell watch ya mouth. I am 8 feet 10 inches and I am King of the Wedgie Party! I have been in tne Navy, Air Force and Army, all at the same time! I can swim in the deep end of the pool and pee in the sandbox.
You better not mess with me or I will tell my mommy.
I do not like math..ha ha I talked about it nah nah na
Paul Miller, since we are a military family we followed the race in VA with interest.  My kid let out a loud 'Hu-ah' when he heard that Jim Webb had won.  With friends and familiy in the Marines, Navy, Active Army, Reserves and Guard I hear a lot of opinions.  Most saw early on that this war was a mistake, others have taken longer to reach that conclusion, and only a couple still profess to wholeheartedly support it.  One sounds like Jerry...more than gung-ho, positively bloodthirsty and wants to kill ragheads, as he calls them.  I worry about him.  Most of them say it's time to get out; that Bush's legacy is not worth another American life.  They know there's no easy way to do it, but they don't see any sense in staying the course.  Or staying the 'new way forward' course or whatever the administration is calling it this week.  I've watched them struggle with the issues and it is painful for them to disagree with the President.  It astounds me that they are brave enough to put that disagreement in the back of their minds and go over there and fight.  My son says they put each mission, their country and buddies first and just do their best to bring each other home alive.  It infuriates me when people call anyone who disagrees with Bush leftie-loonies, Libs, wimps or disgruntled.  They don't know these guys like I do.  I doubt that Webb found his decisions easy either.  He has character in his face.  Allen struck me as one of those smarmy, 'say anything to win whether he means it or not' types.  I hope more states follow Virginia's lead.
Mel:Your argument cuts both ways.I too have a nephew serving with the 82nd,as well as other friends who support this mission and the president to the upmost,or,to a lesser degree,they have more contempt for the Democrats then they do our commander-in-chief.Either way,the Democrats who advise immediate retreat are simply not garnering the respect of the field and home soldiers,sailors,Marines and airmen.I see that the pro-administration group including Iraq soldiers known as ''Veterans For Freedom''is marching on Capitol Hill.I would bet a Tommys Joint T-Bone[the best in Frisco],that they get little to no play in the MSM at all where barely enough grandmas to form a bridge table belonging to CODE PINK would get front page on the New York Times.
Lee, I hope your nephew and friends come through this safely.  Thank you for sharing their viewpoint. Those of us who know troops are generally influenced by their experiences and opinions to a greater degree than by what we read or see in the news.  Perhaps if the "Veterans for Freedom" wore outfits made of electric blue or neon green they would get more press coverage. :)


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