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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



A stunning South Carolina poll

Posted: Friday, July 20, 2007 12:57 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray


If its numbers are true, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll of South Carolina voters is a boon to Clinton and a potentially devastating blow to Obama. In it, Clinton leads Obama, 43%-27%, with Edwards at 17%. Yet among African Americans, Clinton's lead over Obama jumps to 52%-33%. Can that be right?

What's more, 15% of black Democratic primary voters say they WOULD NOT vote for Obama under any circumstance, while just 4% of them say the same thing about Clinton. And on key qualities, Clinton wins by a wide margin. By a 72%-19% clip, black Democratic primary voters say she has the right experience over Obama to be president; by 63%-29%, they think she has the better chance of beating the GOP nominee in '08; and by 48%-40%, they think she is most likely to bring change to the country.

What's startling, in fact, is that Obama gets higher marks among white South Carolina Democrats on some of these particular questions than he does with black Democrats.

However, we've already had a few folks chime in to remind us that the owner of Opinion Research is none other than InfoUSA, which is owned by Clinton supporter Vinod Gupta. And the Obama campaign says they're laughing at these results. "Our grassroots effort in South Carolina is moving at a historic pace. We couldn’t feel better about the energy and enthusiasm for Obama in the Palmetto State," a spokesman tells First Read.

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DR,
DR,

Let me co-sign!  I can't say if Timothy is faking his race but he's most certainly 'fakin' the funk.'  Not even Al Sharpton has ever gone so far to say he speaks for all Black folks.  To his assessment of Senator Obama's reception (before and after) at NAACP Presidential Forum in Detroit, MSNBC and every other media outlet reported that Senator Obama was the shining star of the forum.  I watched it and can attest that he received the same thunderous cheers when he exited as when he entered.  Visit the NAACP.org site and judge for yourself.  Moreover, the swell of African American Obama supporters outside of the forum--who couldnt' get in--reflected that as well.  But let's give poor Timothy a break.  Picking cotton all day in the blistering sun is bound to make anyone dillusional.
What I find suspect about the poll is the reported 15% of African Americans who would not vote for Senator Obama under any circumstances.  The one thing consistent in all of the polls being conducted, state-by-state and nationwide, is that Senator Obama has the least negative ratings of any candidate.  He garners the largest percentage of voters who say that want to learn more about the candidate before deciding.  In that context, only a neglible number of voters have ruled out voting for him altogether. They may not be leaning toward him, but they haven't completely ruled out voting for him.  That said, I find it highly improbable that 15% of African Americans in one single state would not vote for him under any circumstances.  That number alone makes me question the validity of the entire poll.
JTB dont' bank on it. I won't vote for Hillary.  Any other Democratic candidate  I will.  I would vote for nader first.   I would consider Romney before her he's a democrat anyway in drag
Remember how the exit polls showed Kerry winning in 04? hint: We rightwing people lie to pollsters for fun.
Lyn,

CNN, MSNBC and most of the major media outlets have all but ignored the Clintons' relationship with Vinod Gupta and Rupert Murdoch.  InfoUSA collects the names and financial information of elderly Americans, many suffering from alzheimer's and dementia, and sells them to predatory mortgage lenders who prey on the elderly convincing them to sign up for equity loans--no strings attached--but the strings are actually the whole house.  Why would someone who engages in such heinous business practices hesitate to cook poll numbers? Maybe MSNBC, CNN et al will take a break from annointing Senator Clinton the next president and start focusing on her and her husband's questionable business dealings.  I'm not suggesting they put them under a political microscope, just give it as much attention to the distorted claims that Senator Obama advocates explicit sex education to 5 year olds.
Dee,  I couldn't have said it better.  MSNBC are you listening?  I know you are (smile).  Don't forget they want to get in good with them, so that means looking the other way.
The CNN is now the Clinton News Network.

And Gupta would want to see Clinton win or else Obama would remove the tax-incentive for companies that took jobs away from Americans and offshore them to India.
I'm responding to Timothy (Rochester, NY) who claims that Whites think that Blacks cannot form an informed opinion and will blindly vote for Obama. Please get rid of that complex. You remind me of Jesus who came and was rejected by his own people the Jews. Pardon my comparison but my advice to you is that if Blacks like you continue to feel you are being descriminated upon by Whites, then maybe Obama is the one to either prove that notion wrong(He has a lot of White backing)or bring racial harmony. I think you should just pay attention his plans than start imagining what Whites think about you. Reason out loud!
Yes Bill Clinotn did a lot for Blacks...no welfare, NAFTA (say good bye to your job at your local plant that you have worked for twenty years), Rwanda (need a reminder of what happened there). I am African American and educated enough to know that Obama is right this bitter politics needs to go. The government can't do anything because theya re stuck on donkeys and elephants. Anyone who thinks Hillary is going to cross the aisle please pass me what you smoking.
Yes Bill Clinotn did a lot for Blacks...no welfare, NAFTA (say good bye to your job at your local plant that you have worked for twenty years), Rwanda (need a reminder of what happened there). I am African American and educated enough to know that Obama is right this bitter politics needs to go. The government can't do anything because theya re stuck on donkeys and elephants. Anyone who thinks Hillary is going to cross the aisle please pass me what you smoking.
These early polls don't mean much......Edwards will win the nomination.
This clinton machine think they can brain wash us, let alone shield the American people from the truth. I suspect CNN is helping in this false propaganda by releasing a poll that is totally one sided. This is what i called "Clinton's Psychological Campaign" - it will not work on us.

The conflict of interest between the pollster and the clinton machine is totally evident. The people of South Carolina, please, don't fall for this Cinton's psychological warfare. Reject every inauthentic candidates that comes your way. Clinton's machine is a joke!!!
InfoUSA is the outfit that was selling mailing lists targeting lederly people regarded as vulnerable to sales pitches.
-They gave $$$ to Bill Clinton and bought his silence.
-They gave $$$ to Miss Hillary and bought her silence.
-They hired Paul Pelosi to a high-paying position for which he had no discernable qualifications and bought Popeye Pelosi's silence.
-And Big Media isn't gonna say a thing, only Rush Limabaugh and Dems don't listen to him so the nomination is hers.
Vinod Gupta hired Bill Clinton as a consultant to the tune of $3 million.  That in addition to use of the corporate jet and other favors are part of the reason why shareholders are suing "Vinnie".

The close tie of a poll owner to a candidate is suspicious enough to take these with a large dose of salt.
I think there is a point here not being brought up:

Barack Obama's campaign aren't trying to win polls today.  What they are concerned about is the polls by the end of January (after the first primary states, before Feb. 5).  And thus what they are looking at is indicators to the polls then, hence their comfortability with their expansion of "grassroots efforts."  They're getting their ducks in a row to affect the polls then; they're not fighting for polls today.

Hillary is now running the reverse campaign, fighting for high marks in the polls now, hence the dvd's, Bill with her in NH, etc.  It really doesn't matter if these polls are valid or not.  To judge Hillary vs. Obama, we'll honestly have to wait to see the direction of Obama's polls in January, when his campaign will be hitting on all cylinders with all their preparations, when votes are actually going to be taken.
Hillary Clinton is so scared because for the first time she realizes that she is not going to win. So what you end up with is bunk like this.

She cannot win Iowa. She will not win South Carolina. Because I believe that Edwards will fizzle out by the Iowa caucus, I think Obama will win that. That will spark a revolution, giving him New Hampshire as well. South Carolina will be his, no doubt (wait until Jesse Jackson gets real involved down there).

From there on out, it is all momentum (remember John Kerry). Ignore those stupid national polls. THEY MEAN NOTHING. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Follow the money, donor numbers, and electoral enthusiasm.

OBAMA!!!!
I can't believe everyone who supports Obama so strongly.  He was adamant he would run a clean campaign but when the dirt was tracked directly back to his campaign employees not once, but twice, he gave lip service only.  If he was as moral as he claims it wouldn't have happened.  You can talk about Hillary as much as you want (and I'll grant you until u tube Obama looked good to me too) but the same games are being played by Obama.  He just hasn't been in the public eye as long.  Everyone should make their decisions about the candidates abilities, not tactics, because it obviously is tit for tat with both of them.  Personally he scares me.  Anyone who came up so fast and so furious must owe a lot of favors and I wonder what those favors are?
A good indicator that polls don't mean much at this point is that the Mason/Dixon poll has Obama beating Hillary by 9 points in South Carolina and over on the GOP side, the three different companies polling SC each have a different candidate up.
Obama and Edwards are going to give Hillary a good run for her money. This race is going to be decided at the convention not by silly polls.
It is worth noting that InfoUSA not only pays the Clintons,,,,he has also hired Pelosi's son...I wonder how many other Democrats have ties to this organization? How many Republicans? This would be worth some ivestigative reporting.
If Obama has poll results that refute these, why doesn't he just lay them on the table?
The South Carolina poll was done by Opinion Research, a company owned by Vinod Gupta, owner of Info USA. Bill Clinton is a paid advisor to Info USA and has allegedly (in court documents) been paid over $3,000,000 in consulting fees. Part of the $41 million that he made since leaving office was a speech before Info USA -- for $200,000. So this is basically a poll by a company about one of their employees.

The poll is quite shady. They interviewed over 1000 people and selected 380 of the responses. Breaking it out you have:

148 people for Clinton
95 people for Obama
57 for Edwards
38 for Gore
11 for the other candidates
I find this poll VERY hard believe. Especially the stat about blacks who would definatly not vote for Obama compared to Hillary. Im black and I dont know ANY black dem who would definatly not vote for Obama and Im very politically active. Most blacks simply dont know where he stands. Others (believe it or not) dont even know hes black yet. I GUARANTEE Obama will pull at least 60% of the black vote in the end..That you can take to the bank.

If Hillary wins Ill likely vote republican. The 28 year Clinton-Bush era needs to be put to rest..
We need more information on which Democratic candidate Independents will support. There is no way I am living through another four years of Republican mis-rule. Independents: make your opinions HEARD, I'll support whichever Democrat in the primary you'll agree to vote for in the general election.
i cannot vote in  a presidential election in america cause i am not an american citizen but electing a president in united states is a very important in this planet. Since United States is the most powerful nation in the world all countries is focus on the result of this election. But for myself if i can vote I will vote Hillary Clinton for president.    
i cannot vote in  a presidential election in america cause i am not an american citizen but electing a president in united states is a very important in this planet. Since United States is the most powerful nation in the world all countries is focus on the result of this election. But for myself if i can vote I will vote Hillary Clinton for president.    
you want someone who will tell you what you wanna hear, then walk down the street and tell them what they wanna hear and so on, and so on... then vote for hillary. you want someone who will work tirelessly in support of the everyday joe, someone who has spent a life in the trenches working for change instead of grasping for power? then you might wanna vote for obama. simple as that. i love BILL CLINTON, but hillary is no bill folks.
Clinton has taken on the republicans for years and keeps winning. They have thrown everything they could at her and she is still the Best canidate in the race.
She can win and has republicans scared so will. Republicans however love the notion of facing a man with a troubled past and drug history who has not even a full single year of office experence and if were not careful and Elect the only Democrat who can win in Clinton then we will be forced to sit and watch the republican machine tear down a crackhead with no experience.
Crackheads should not be even on the Ticket. Obama is a Crack head just goggle it He admits it.
Clinton in 2008
Clinton has taken on the republicans for years and keeps winning. They have thrown everything they could at her and she is still the Best canidate in the race.
She can win and has republicans scared so will. Republicans however love the notion of facing a man with a troubled past and drug history who has not even a full single year of office experence and if were not careful and Elect the only Democrat who can win in Clinton then we will be forced to sit and watch the republican machine tear down a crackhead with no experience.
Crackheads should not be even on the Ticket. Obama is a Crack head just goggle it He admits it.
Clinton in 2008
I belive there should be a law that once your impeached, and get kicked out of the whitehouse! you cant bring your self or your family back in! under no circumstances. what if theres another scandle? we shouldnt risk it, the other countries are laughing at us for even considering having a woman run the country
people are saying one thing in the polls and getting in the booth and voting differently
Well we know that she is going to have problems now in S.C. She won't win...Obama's leading now......To all you pundits. We got the most delegates even though she won the most votes...in Nevada, Obama carried the most County's. Well see you you in S.C. with an Obama win.


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