First thoughts

Posted: Monday, July 23, 2007 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Dem Debate No. 4: Tonight’s CNN/YouTube Democratic debate from Charleston, SC will feature the eight Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- responding to video questions submitted by the public. This debate, the first one of the cycle to be sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee and fourth one overall in the Dem race, begins at 7:00 pm ET. Will style trump substance? After all, technology is the star of tonight's debate, which makes normal debate expectations hard to assess. Many of the campaigns seem intent on taking a backseat to the technology. Still, expect the unexpected, right? It's YouTube, and one assumes CNN is going to take advantage of the fact that they can't be held responsible for the user questions. Will they cross some question lines that they wouldn't do with their own moderator? The candidates, we assume, have prepped for that outcome.

*** YouTube As A Weapon…: In recent years, the Internet has become an essential tool -- and even weapon -- in presidential campaigns. In 2000, campaign Web sites became ubiquitous. 2004 brought us the proliferation of political blogs, as well as the use of the Web to raise huge sums of money. And so far in the 2008 cycle, YouTube has become the latest Internet fixture in American politics, giving almost anyone the power to make their own campaign ads or immediately post a speech or gaffe. The examples are numerous: that anti-Hillary “1984” video, the ”I Feel Pretty” spoof on Edwards, and the tons of YouTubes (obviously posted by opponents) exposing a candidate’s flip-flops and controversial statements. How powerful has YouTube become? Without it, George Allen would still be in the US Senate and on the presidential campaign trail.

*** … And As A Barrel Of Fun: But YouTube also has become an instant source of entertainment and laughs in a business noted more for its nastiness. Even the most cynical of political observers have chuckled as Obama Girl, Hillary Girl, and Giuliani Girl have strutted their stuff online. They have made politics fun. Just check out something like Hardball’s campaign ad challenge.

*** The Anti-War Hillary: And just in time for tonight’s debate, there’s a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing Clinton with a sizable lead over Obama among Democrats, 45%-30%. Edwards comes in third at 12%, and Richardson fourth at 3%. Perhaps the most interesting result in the poll: Clinton “has a 51 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama among those in favor of a complete, immediate withdrawal.” As we’ve mentioned before, how Hillary has evolved in the last few months from the candidate with the biggest problem with Iraq to an anti-war candidate -- see her recent battle with the Pentagon, which was a media homerun -- might be the most underreported story of the campaign cycle so far. Indeed, save for fundraising, one can argue that Clinton has won every other invisible metric so far. A cynic may simply claim she's winning the pander primary (don’t miss her tough words on Yucca Mountain), but is that a bad thing right now?

VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd on Clinton's commanding lead in the newest poll

*** Censure Or Sensibility: The last time Russ Feingold proposed a censure resolution, there wasn't a full-fledged presidential campaign. Clearly, the issue will come up in tonight's debate (right, CNN? hint, hint). Since it’s a meaningless resolution, doesn't it make it easier for presidential candidates serving in the Senate to vote for it? Or because it's meaningless, does it make it easier to ignore? What will also be interesting is if Feingold's resolution sparks more coverage of polls that have shown a growing number of voters supportive of impeachment -- be it for Bush or Cheney.

*** What Happened To The Vitter Story? After an initial flurry of press -- from his press conference to his first day back at work in Washington -- the coverage of Vitter has come to a virtual standstill. In fact, Sean Hannity’s apparent call for his resignation late last week didn’t even advance the story. Are journalists and political opponents just keeping their powder dry for now? Or did Wendy Vitter scare us that much?

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani gives a speech on energy in San Francisco; Huckabee, in Iowa, discusses health care; and McCain delivers remarks to the Economic Club of Southwest Michigan. Also, Gingrich gives a briefing at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in DC.

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 19 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 42 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 89 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 106 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 117 days
Countdown to Iowa: 174 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 196 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 470 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 547 days

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Comments

IRAQI PRIMINISTER NOW ASKING IRAQI PARLEMENT "NOT" TO TAKE 1 MONTH VACATION/RECESS THIS AUGUST, WHILE US TROOPS DIE ON "THEIR" STREETS. DECISION ON THIS WITHIN DAYS, STAY TUNED.

You got to be kidding me (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:36 AM)

My "crystal ball" sees the dem primary voters again nominating the wrong candidate as they have so many times. As it looks now Clinton is the big winner and the big loser in 08. Wake up folks. John Edwards is the ONLY DEM WHO CAN WIN IN 08.

David, Chattanooga, Tn (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:37 AM)

GoNzO-GaTe....it just will not go away.

Gonzo-Gator (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:39 AM)

BE AN INFORMED VOTER AND GO TO HILLARYCLINTON.COM, AND CONTINUE THE "DISCUSSION".

PATRIOT (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:44 AM)

don't make too much about the poll. For one thing, you guys overlook the 30 percent of Obama. This shows a rise in his own polling.
I know msnbc is big into Hillary but, I just don't see her as the nominee. many women feel they have to support Clinton but, when it comes down to really deciding they will go with who they really like and alot of times it won't be Clinton. Obama and Edwards have strong and devoted support. Clinton has alot of soft support. And many recognize her and hear you guys touting her but, alot of her support is soft.

diane (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:46 AM)

You libs are so gullible. Hillary votes for the war, now she comes back as anti-war and now she is the greatest thing since the invention of the wheel. I think we saw this in 2004 with John Kerry (I voted for the 87 million before I voted against the 87 million). Hillary changes her tune because she knows she can't get the far left of the party in step with her without coming out against the war. Hillary, a Little advice, when and If you are elected President, you can destroy this country all you want to. Until then, just sit there and let the military run the war. A better deal for you, you turn over the papers of the Rose law firm (you know the one's you said disappeared then showed up at the white house family residence) and maybe you can get the Pentagon's papers. I doubt they have a plan for defeat, we are not a nation of quitters (except if you are a democrat). She probably didn't even know what the heck Yucca Mountain was (she probably thought it was the sequel to Brokeback mountain) until over the weekend.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:47 AM)

LUMOS!

Desmond (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:47 AM)

First Read, where is the attention to this http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/19/AR2007071902625.html?hpid=topnews story? This is huge for two reasons. First, the White House wouldn't be working so hard to hide the US Attorneys matter if there weren't real dynomite in there. Secondly this is a true constitutional crisis of the highest magnitude. Bush is claiming a level of executive privilege not attempted Clinton, Reagan, not even Nixon! If neither the Congress nor the courts has oversight of the Administrative branch then truly he has the power to do whatever he wants.

John B, Des Moines, IA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:49 AM)

David, I must disagree with you. Yes I think Edwards would win but I also think Richardson and perhaps Obama would also win.Out of those three I think any would be excellent candidates.

leon houston tx. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:50 AM)

Hey John -- thanks for the note. We mentioned that article on Friday, I believe. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/07/20/279722.aspx

Mark Murray (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 9:55 AM)

"A cynic may simply claim she's winning the pander primary (don’t miss her tough words on Yucca Mountain), but is that a bad thing right now?" I don't believe you would have to be a "cynic" to think hillary is the supreme panderer, anyone who is not comatose can figure that one out

MK,MO (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:02 AM)

Hi there! Just remember to check it out hillaryclinton.com. G.W. "you" can look too.

Patriot (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:02 AM)

Jerry-libs are gullible so I guess repugs are just plain stupid, ignorant, misbegotten, arrogant, in denial, rascist, homophobes and arrogant.....If I left any adjectives out...Please by all means fill in the blanks------------------------------.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:10 AM)

I think the internet, and YouTube perform a democratizing service allowing the masses to weigh in on issues as in blogs, and to participate in mud wrestling as in YouTube. Any citizen who doesn't like what the Republican dirty tricks department has said about their candidate can create their own dirty trick and put it before the public. No minds will be changed, but it could be therapeutic for those who enjoy preaching to the choir. The political blog is good for getting the real news out there while the broadcast networks deal with propaganda and make believe news like the Elian Gonzales manufactured news of yore, and while the FOX propaganda factory plies its primary job of keeping the miseducated misinformed.
I'm with Feingold on the censure of Bush as long as we can later go in and impeach him, and I'm up for impeachment as long as we can later go in and throw him in the slammer where he belongs.
I think the Vitter story went back into the woodwork for two reasons: A. He is a Republican. If he had been a Democrat, it would still be making the headlines on Nov. '08. B. Lots of news has been put on the back burner so the American public can be kept informed on the really vital matter of the day - the Harry Potter phenomenon. It is unclear how long the media will see the need to keep us up to date on that front.

JIrby, Colorado (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:10 AM)

Should America become a monarch? my gut feelings tells me heck NO - we should expect Jeff Bush to run for president in 2016 - US politics will therefore be relegated to a few privileged households and this is not good for our democracy which is highly respected in many countries.

Michael (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:17 AM)

Is it true that romney isn't in the news today because he had to once again strap his dog to the roof for a little trip to the doggy psychotherapist? or did peta cut the tires down on the $1200 a week rolling face paint shack so that he couldn’t get his eyeliner or whatever installed today, Romney is a manly man ain’t he? I hope the mittster returns to first read soon so because he’s always good for a laugh.

MK,MO (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:27 AM)

Mark and Chuck,
Fred Kaplan has a great analysis in Slate Magazine of the insults, by the Pentagon, againt Senator Clinton inquiry about troops in Iraq.
I hope all the Senators in Congress take umbrage.
Anothe example of keeping Congress out of the loop, A big mistake.

H P Boston (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:31 AM)

Mark and Chuck,
Fred Kaplan has a great analysis in Slate Magazine of the insults, by the Pentagon, againt Senator Clinton's inquiry about troops in Iraq.
I hope all the Senators in Congress take umbrage.
Anothe example of keeping Congress out of the loop, A big mistake.

H P Boston (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:33 AM)

It is called a representative democracy as opposed to the term-limited dictatorship the Bushies prefer. This means that an elected official should reflect the wishes of the electorate EVEN if it conflicts with their personal beliefs. If the wishes of the people of the country change so should the policies of the elected officials. That doesn't mean that the candidate shouldn't try to educate and lead the people when they are mis-informed or not rising above their biases. It is not right for an elected official to impose their personal beliefs such as with Bush or Lieberman against the wishes of the electorate and call it a principled stand.

nuanced (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:37 AM)

We give the American public far too much credit in understanding the issues. I'm sure the same folks who support complete withdrawal but also support Hillary Clinton are the same Democrats polled earlier this month who they disagreed with the recent Supreme Court Decision on voluntary school integration, but also disagreed with using race as a criteria under any circumstances is assigning children to schools, which means they actually do agree with the Supreme Court Decision or are simply faking that they understand the issue. They are also probably the same Democrats who in another recent poll said they believed in mandatory carbon caps to curb global warming but didn't support the Kyoto protocol. I suspect they didn't know what the heck the Kyoto protocol is (it sounded foreign so they couldn't support), just like they don't know Hillary Clinton's position on ending the Iraq war. Hillary Clinton's base of support are women--who by every study don't read the news regularly or stay informed on issues at the rate of men. They are supporting her out of blind gender loyalty not a real understanding of the issues. Call it sexist, but it's the ugly truth.

Dee of VA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:38 AM)

Mark, sorry I missed it on Friday. I just feel this is an issue that's above the level of Republican/Democrat. If the executive is free to do whatever he wishes with no constraints then we can't complain if one day we find ourselves ruled by a dictator. On more of a "news of today" level, would the White House be working so hard to avoid airing the US Attorneys issue if there weren't something to hide? After all, if it's really as routine and proper as they claim it should stand the scrutiny. If the White House did everything right the Dems look like fools and the GOP benefits.

John B, Des Moines, IA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:50 AM)

The ratings for this taking points show will be less than Hardballs and that is very low. Unless actual unvarnished questions come through and that will not happen, this will be another waste of time.

The complete and immediate withdrawal crowd is delusional in that no where has she ever said that, proposed that or would do that. Even 100% of those people would not get you elected to dog cather.

Feingold is sailing in the same leaky boat as McCain as this is just more theater without substance.

Vitter, Vitter who? Dude if your going to use the service than man up when you get cought. Don't whine about sinning, say it was the best time you ever had. If you lose mamma over it than that is your fault, but don't hide under her skirt.

Alan in Phx (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:51 AM)

I agree with you, leon. ANY of those three would be a great choice for Democrats. A ticket with Both: Edwards/Obama, Obama/Richardson would be even better. It's still early. Hopefully the tide will turn for Democrats. Candidates chould be pointing out that Hillary was a pro-war candidate when that was politically convient, 'anti-war' when that is politcally expedient.

Sierra, San Francisco (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:53 AM)

You know, I think Jerry should join Bush at the ranch. He obviously needs a good long vacation, as he seems to be getting more insulting all the time. I just don't get the need to label everyone as liberal and conservative, and then declare that everyone in those groups is alike. My politics are more similar to my mother, who is a Republican, than they are to most Democrats I know. It's just ridiculous for Jerry (and others) to keep perpetuating these stereotypes about BOTH parties.

Furthermore, the Democrats don't want to quit anything. They want the quitters also known as the Iraqis to step up to the plate and handle THEIR civil war. They don't want our men and women dying to protect a people that refuse to protect themselves. Sounds like rational thinking to me.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:55 AM)

Chuck and Mark, I believe you are missing several bits of data here. There were several polls that placd Obama as best at the NAACP Convention, and there was a poll in SC, I believe, that placed Obama as the winner of that debate. Now, polls to are as reliable as horoscopes, but yo ualso are not taking into consideration the fact that many of Obama's supporters use cell phones instead of landlines, and therefore cannot be polled. You also canot overlook the number of contributors to his campaign.

I'm not asking that you become Obama junkies. But it would be nice if you were a little more balanced, even if it comes at the cost of sounding less "newsy".

Rick Beaule', Indiana, PA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 10:58 AM)

Juan- you forgot "HOLIER-THAN-THOU, ME-FIRST" pricks.

Buzz (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:01 AM)

Carrie-right on!The Jerry's of the world have this black/white, good vs evil and cro-magnum way of thinking and will never deviate from it. They will never compromise and admit that the Bushies have brought on such misery to millions of individuals...loyalty at all cost......sounds familiar?STARTS WITH A F.....

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:08 AM)

POLLS! POLLS! POLLS! If a poll where taken in during the David and Goliath fight, 99% of respondents would have chosen Goliath. Even as David picked up those five smooth stones. I don't understand how 390 out of what roughly a little over 1,000 people can rule the World! There was a poll of respondents that said Simpson would be found guilty of murdering two innocent human beings too.

I'm glad Senator Obama has his own internal polling because these Clinton based polling firms are only to make her look like she is the nominee.

The candidate that lives by the polls, candidacy will die by the polls.

Lynn, Millington (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:08 AM)

The one thing that will lose this election for Democrats is nominating Hillary Clinton. Republicans will come out in droves to vote against her.

Jake in IL (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:11 AM)

jerri u da girl, go girl go

jerri fan (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:14 AM)

THE END OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THANKS G.W. !

HELLO ! (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:19 AM)

Ya DEE Va we can barely keep up with your run on stentences. Too many big words. Please make it shorter and more concise. We can barely read, poor misinformed masses, poor ignorant sexist women.
I do not understand why they make us have babies, we
can't learn them nothing!

IMPEACH (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:21 AM)

Jerry, to be a quitter, as in "we aren't a nation of quitters", you first have to BEGIN something. How's the view from your chickenhawk's armchair? I just know there's a recruiter's office somewhere in Corpus Christi open today. Be all you can be, Jer.

Doug, San Diego CA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:23 AM)

Hey Sierra, to be honest I prefer Obama as a VP first just because I think his lack of Federal experience could be exploited, but in any event if he were the nominee I would welcome him as a breath of fresh air. I am not bashing Edwards I like him, but I think a better case could be made for Obama being the next Bobby Kennedy.

leon houston tx. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 11:25 AM)

We need more race baiting in America.

Uncle Tom for the democrat party. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:03 PM)

Go Hillary! Kick some ass! You got the republicans squirming.

Susan, Miami (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:06 PM)

I like jirby's idea...yes, censure, but only if you impeach, yes, impeach, but only if you put BOTH Chimp and Face-Shooter in the slammer; and with the Plame thing, a case could be made for treason. Then put them in that Supermax facility with the Unabomber, the Shoe Bomber and the Abortion Clinics Bomber.Then, maybe we can all feel our Constitution is safe again.
As for Hillary, if she is nominated, the Dems will lose. But the Dems being Dems, they'll nominate her, and wonder why she lost. She's got too mucn baggage, and too many people who hate her. Let's nominate someone with a snowball's chance in hell, so we can finally get the country back on track...please?!?

Jim, Washington, D.C. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:10 PM)

Dee: "I'm sure ...". You're wrong. That was easy.

Not as stupid as you think, BushCo Associate (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:15 PM)

Hilary does not have a chance, for many reasons. She is not a reliable thinker, has shown no consistancy of ideas, and the country will not accept a "first man" ( let alone a former president) in the White House. Regardess of the polls or debates all will change in six months. The Democrats are experiancing their last major election and they will lose again.

Mike, Lee NH (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:21 PM)

Can't we all agree that Obama girl, Giuliani girl, etc. DON'T make politics "fun"? Why the media goes gah-gah over that junk is beyond me. It's not even cute or funny; it's weird.

Gary, Des Moines, IA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:24 PM)

This upcoming election is as simple as A.B.C.... Anyone But Clinton

Bob Columbia Tn (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:44 PM)

Well, a surprise that the Iraqi Senate is being asked not to take a break for a one month period, because U.S. troops are on the ground. I agree. Now if we could just get the U.S. government to think the same way, perhaps this mess could be resolved in a more timely manner.

Larry Douglas, Comox, B.C., Canada (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:46 PM)

I've a couple of ideas as to why the Vitter story has practically vanished from the headlines. First of all, being a GOP senator, he can do no wrong in the eyes of the corporate-run mainstream media. Were he a Democrat, you'd still be hearing and seeing news about him all over the place.

Secondly, because the corporate-run media wants to make the Bush Administration (and by extension, the GOP) look good, they don't want to remind Americans about how Bush bungled during Katrina and is continuing to bungle the aftermath by neglecting New Orleans and the rest of the storm zone. Because Vitter represents hard-hit Louisiana, which is still in a world of hurt nearly 2 years after Katrina, these loyal toadies of the Bushies want to let sleeping dogs lie. In fact, were the reports that Vitter had frequented a New Orleans bordello delved into more deeply by the media, it would make Americans think about what happened to 80% of New Orleans. The media are keeping mum on this story because of the fact that Vitter often hasn't been working with Sen. Landrieu on enacting legislation that would help Louisiana recover, and has thus been a traitor to his state. And because the media want to support the GOP they don't want to, by adding the pressure of daily coverage, push Vitter into resigning, because then Gov. Blanco would name a Democrat to replace him.

Olivia (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:48 PM)

Huckabee in '08 - Sit back and watch it happen, there's nothing you can do about it. The people are fed up with the deceit and rethoric from both sides of the aisle. The Right will prevail, because of sheer numbers. Again, write it down - Huckabee in '08. Why? because I Know The Truth.

IKNOW THE TRUTH (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:51 PM)

I just can't get over the Hillary haters. I, personally, am leaning Obama at the moment. However, any candidate running for the Democratic nomination except for the fringe candidates can and will win in 2008. But let's limit ourselves to just Senator Clinton. 1) She will have a massive money advantage on who ever gets the nod for the GOP. 2) The GOP is completely lethargic about their candidates (last poll I saw had 60% wishing for more choices and "I don't know" was in the lead). 3) The country is so fed up with GOP we actually might be able to elect Kucinich on the grounds that he isn't a Republican.

Thanks again to everyone who helped to elect the shrub. It's because of his administration that the liberal progressives will be in charge for at least two more election cycles (possibly decades). We couldn't have achieved it without you!

John Doe, The Peanut Gallery (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:53 PM)

Huckabee in '08. Take it down because that's the way it's going to go down. People have had enough of the deceit and rhetoric from both sides of the aisle. The Right will prevail because of the sheer numbers once they all come together - and they will all come together behind the only candidate who doesn't duck and jive and who has more honest bones in his body that dishonest. Huckabee in '08, don't miss it, you heard it first here. Why? Because I KNOW THE TRUTH.

IKNOW THE TRUTH (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 12:54 PM)

If you haven't been there yet ,there is still time...hillaryclinton.com , the information you will need to know about our next President.

oh yeah! (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:08 PM)

I'm not aware of anyone who is in favor of the Iraq war. The problem is how to and when to end it and not end up with the battleground in the USA. The Democratic nominee will likely be Hillary or Obama, but the best candidate is Richardson. He has a great resume and he doesn't have baggage.

T. G. Cary, Dallas, TX (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:16 PM)

Huckabee?? What a joke of a man.I know the truth must be on some kind of amphetamines. The truth will be hitting you REAL hard right between the eyes soon when Mr Huckster drops out of the race.

bb (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:17 PM)

Jim/Mike-So if it is down to Clinton and Gigolo Rudy and/or Flimflam Romney...I believe now what the polls are saying that 63% of people believe she's the next president;lesser of two; the majority of people are sick and tired of the Repugnants.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:19 PM)

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