First thoughts

Posted: Monday, July 23, 2007 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Dem Debate No. 4: Tonight’s CNN/YouTube Democratic debate from Charleston, SC will feature the eight Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- responding to video questions submitted by the public. This debate, the first one of the cycle to be sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee and fourth one overall in the Dem race, begins at 7:00 pm ET. Will style trump substance? After all, technology is the star of tonight's debate, which makes normal debate expectations hard to assess. Many of the campaigns seem intent on taking a backseat to the technology. Still, expect the unexpected, right? It's YouTube, and one assumes CNN is going to take advantage of the fact that they can't be held responsible for the user questions. Will they cross some question lines that they wouldn't do with their own moderator? The candidates, we assume, have prepped for that outcome.

*** YouTube As A Weapon…: In recent years, the Internet has become an essential tool -- and even weapon -- in presidential campaigns. In 2000, campaign Web sites became ubiquitous. 2004 brought us the proliferation of political blogs, as well as the use of the Web to raise huge sums of money. And so far in the 2008 cycle, YouTube has become the latest Internet fixture in American politics, giving almost anyone the power to make their own campaign ads or immediately post a speech or gaffe. The examples are numerous: that anti-Hillary “1984” video, the ”I Feel Pretty” spoof on Edwards, and the tons of YouTubes (obviously posted by opponents) exposing a candidate’s flip-flops and controversial statements. How powerful has YouTube become? Without it, George Allen would still be in the US Senate and on the presidential campaign trail.

*** … And As A Barrel Of Fun: But YouTube also has become an instant source of entertainment and laughs in a business noted more for its nastiness. Even the most cynical of political observers have chuckled as Obama Girl, Hillary Girl, and Giuliani Girl have strutted their stuff online. They have made politics fun. Just check out something like Hardball’s campaign ad challenge.

*** The Anti-War Hillary: And just in time for tonight’s debate, there’s a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing Clinton with a sizable lead over Obama among Democrats, 45%-30%. Edwards comes in third at 12%, and Richardson fourth at 3%. Perhaps the most interesting result in the poll: Clinton “has a 51 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama among those in favor of a complete, immediate withdrawal.” As we’ve mentioned before, how Hillary has evolved in the last few months from the candidate with the biggest problem with Iraq to an anti-war candidate -- see her recent battle with the Pentagon, which was a media homerun -- might be the most underreported story of the campaign cycle so far. Indeed, save for fundraising, one can argue that Clinton has won every other invisible metric so far. A cynic may simply claim she's winning the pander primary (don’t miss her tough words on Yucca Mountain), but is that a bad thing right now?

VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd on Clinton's commanding lead in the newest poll

*** Censure Or Sensibility: The last time Russ Feingold proposed a censure resolution, there wasn't a full-fledged presidential campaign. Clearly, the issue will come up in tonight's debate (right, CNN? hint, hint). Since it’s a meaningless resolution, doesn't it make it easier for presidential candidates serving in the Senate to vote for it? Or because it's meaningless, does it make it easier to ignore? What will also be interesting is if Feingold's resolution sparks more coverage of polls that have shown a growing number of voters supportive of impeachment -- be it for Bush or Cheney.

*** What Happened To The Vitter Story? After an initial flurry of press -- from his press conference to his first day back at work in Washington -- the coverage of Vitter has come to a virtual standstill. In fact, Sean Hannity’s apparent call for his resignation late last week didn’t even advance the story. Are journalists and political opponents just keeping their powder dry for now? Or did Wendy Vitter scare us that much?

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani gives a speech on energy in San Francisco; Huckabee, in Iowa, discusses health care; and McCain delivers remarks to the Economic Club of Southwest Michigan. Also, Gingrich gives a briefing at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in DC.

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 19 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 42 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 89 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 106 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 117 days
Countdown to Iowa: 174 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 196 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 470 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 547 days

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Comments

some of these messages contain such nonsense that the writers should never be allowed in public without their dunce cap on. bush lied about wmd and many other things. we have suspended habeas corpus. seems like all these so-called tough guys like cheney and wolfowitz have never even been through boot camp much less combat. also don't forget bush was awol in alabama. and as for the silly comments that everything is the iraquis fault, give me a break. we've blown the country apart, they don't have jobs, water, electricity, or any security. this war is about war profiteering and nothing else. bush's grandpappy was trading with the nazis until fdr put a stop to it. so the bush crime family has corruption in their dna, they can't help it.

ray cox (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:21 PM)

IKNOW THE TRUTH-You are living in la la land wherever that is. Huckabee has as much chance of winning as Gravel. Put that in your koolaid and drink it.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:22 PM)

PLEASE people read the credentials for NM Governor Bill Richardson. He has the experience that we need.

Alex, Arlington, Virginia (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:27 PM)

oh yeah!, I have read all I need to know about our next President at barackobama.com.

Becky, IA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:33 PM)

Hillary can't win. Either can Obama or Edwards. Look at a map. None of these candidates can win more than the historically democratic coasts. But, look at Bill Richardson. His resume is more complete than all other candidates combined. He can win the south, midwest, and mountain west. He's A+ rated from the NRA. He's a blue-dog democrat that is pro-business and not near as left as any other democratic candidate. Really, if any current front-runner wins the primary, we'll end up with another door-knob Republican. High inflation. Personal freedoms taken away. A no-objective war. Come on, do we really want more of what we've had?

Zach Leicht, Kokomo, IN (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:37 PM)

> in Slate Magazine of the insults <

Slate huh? Wonder which position they took.

Ted Eggle (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:39 PM)

Just remember to vote...hillaryclinton.com , it's free and it fun.

Lucky Dog (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:50 PM)

I don't believe the Dems will settle for Hillary. Even worse than having her in the Oval Office is having Bill back in the White House. She'd be better off kicking him to the curb before the year is out. BTW, I'm to the left of the Democratic Party.

Charlie K. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:55 PM)

WOW, how has our country become so polarized.. How will we ever be able to get anything done if we can not respectfully disagree...I have been a democrat and I am now a republican and I do not think I have changed that much..
Bush has not done a great job but he is the President of the United States..
I do not want Hillary but if she becomes president then she will also deserve respect..
What this country needs is less confrontation and more cooperation

Tom, Salt Lake City, Utah (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 1:55 PM)

Clinton is strong with the most reliable democratic core, averagely educated women while she is also strong with african americans.

Obama needs to make in roads with these voters because even though his wave is considerable and impressive it's not likely enough.

The Obama camp is making a HUGE strategic mistake to allow Hillary to establish herself as an anti-war candidate. They are making the mistake Gore and Kerry made, they are allowing Hillary to define herself as an anti-war candidate.

Yiannis, Baltimore, MD (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:01 PM)

"some of these messages contain such nonsense that the writers should never be allowed in public without their dunce cap on."

Just H P, Buzz, and juan. Skip by those postings, and things start to settle out.

Tex Latin, Spring Grove, MN (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:06 PM)

John Doe and Juan: Hillary could run against Satan and the Republican Smear Machine would try to make her look more pernicious than Satan. AND they will wake up and energize what are now demoralized Republican conservatives to come out and vote in droves, make the election close enough to steal again. The LAST person we want running is Super-Baggage Hillary, the Woman Republicans Love To Hate.
Hillary is the Dem's poison pill in this race, and guys like Rove pray to their war gods every night that the Dems pick an easy target like Hilarity.

Jim, Washington, D.C. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:06 PM)

Jim, Washington, D.C. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:07 PM)

people seem angry that the dems voted to support the president declaring of war against iraq.But because this president ignoring his top generals(shenshecy 500000 troops to do the iraq war right) when the advice might have done some good as opposed to now (petraus telling the american people there is light at the end of the tunnel ,just like westmoreland in vietnam.Now we want a better plan all the diehards offer is disater if we leave disaster if we stayEither way we are divided when we should be united thank the president the leader of all americans for that cancer on our in the body politic

keno (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:07 PM)

Us white people should do all we can to right the racist america that we inherited from our fathers.you may not owe ablack person anything but you owe the black race a thank you for not rising up more than they have, watts ,detroit ,LA.Your going to bitch about favoritism the only reason things are like they are is favoritism,we didnt let the blacks vote we lynched them blew thier churhes up beat them when they asked for equality and you think you have given them enough White people will owe black till the end of time throw in the american indian too.the same way germans owe the jews forever we owe PAU UP AND SHUT UP

kenn whitey o (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:15 PM)

The Republican Party is still out there and stronger than ever. There will be a mass turn out to vote against Hilary if she is the nominee. Republicans just don't sound off as readily as do the Democrats. Hilary has a lot of hidden secrets that will come out with the "Swift Boat ads". She is not a nice person according to people who were in the White House with her and Bill.
If Ralph Nader gets into the fray, his votes will take away from Hilary. That is why she will turn more to the left this year so he doesn't enter. She will tell the people what they want to hear, but if she were to win, whatever is good for her and Bill's pocket books will be on the main menu and the Republicans will vote in a majority in congress to balance her out.
There may still be a strong Republican candidate out there that will win over Hilary hands down if he says what the Republican voters want to hear.
Anti-gun control
Anti Abortion
Lower Taxes
Less Government

Delmar Fairchild, Barron, Wisconsin (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:17 PM)

Chuck, She wouldn't get away with the PANDERING if the MSM didn't help. For those who keep pushing the Hillary site if you want to run up the HITS to the site keep going there yourself, we know all we need to know.

Lyn, Silver Spring MD (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:18 PM)

The repuklicans did not vote in November for the repukes. They did not vote in great numbers. They really have their tails between their legs now!
The Democrat will be out in huge numbers as will the independents and the WOMEN! INDEPENDENT WOMEN!
WOMEN are the majority. VOTE EARLY VOTE OFTEN VOTE
HILLARY!!!!

HO DAM (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:35 PM)

--> Hillary could run against Satan and the Republican Smear Machine would try to make her look more pernicious than Satan.

And, what's scary is that they'd be right.

Clem Marbary (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:38 PM)

kenn whitey o / I don't owe anybody anything for what some else done in the past, get over it

MK,MO (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:42 PM)

Lyn You are misspelling.
It is not pandering...... P O L I T I C S!

MSM reports the polls and the scuttlebutt, we dig it, good job Chuck.

H P Boston (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:43 PM)

Everybody talks about Obama and no experience, what experience does Hillary bring? Besides holiday decorating at the white house and making sure the furniture is dusted twice a day. Her Senate record couldn't get her elected street cleaner. Just what does she bring to the table?

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:47 PM)

The Republican Smear Machine will swiftboat Clinton, and the far-right Republican voters, now in a resentful doze, will awaken in vote in droves if Hillary runs. They'll make it a close enough election to steal again. Please, Dems, don't let the White House get away from us! Satan could be the Republican nominee and the far right would vote for him just to spite Hilarity. PLEASE don't make this mistake!

Jim, Washington, D.C. (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 2:58 PM)

Yo bb, pull your head out! I said the same thing about GW in '00 and '04. While the DemoRats were ordering champagne for Bore and Waffle-Boy, GW was kickin it and takin names. When Waffle-Boy lost in '04 you would have thought that the media was at a funeral or something because their 'boy got smacked. I don't need amphetamines to know the truth, and the truth is Huckabee in '08. McCain's a waffle-boy, Romney's a freak, Guiliani is really a Demorat on his 3rd or 4th wife, (I lose count)and Fred Thompson is too freakin old and frail. Write it down, you heard it first here, it's Huckabee in '08. So go ahead and stock up on Kleenex with ABC, CNN, NBC and the rest of the media because Billary, the Muslim wrapped in the flag and the rest of the DemoRats don't have a snow-ball's chance. Once the Right get's rolling, it can't and won't be stopped. Why? You should already know - because I KNOW THE TRUTH.

IKNOW THE TRUTH (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:02 PM)

HP Funny isn't it how so manyh people love and want Hillary if you believe the POLLS but no one except fat cats seem to give to her campaign. Wasn't that money machine she has suppose to run all over everyone? How did that work out for her? People give for a reason. Think about it?

They have always wanted to make it appear that she was inevitable. The only thing they have left is the polls with a little help from INfoUSA who owns two of them.

Lets see when all those people who support her so STRONGLY that they are willing to give of their Time and Money actually go to the polls.

Lyn, Silver Spring MD (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:03 PM)

What do you mean you haven't been to Hillary's web site ? Get off you kester and go to hillaryclinton.com , you will be glad you did and remember I told you so.

Just Me..and I'am Lucky (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:06 PM)

Them Repuklican SMEAR Machines will SMEAR any Dem candidate. It is what they do, they work for the devil.
All the crap they smear on Senator Clinton has not stuck. It is old, old, dried up dirt that they have spun to death. Give it up!

H P Boston (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:30 PM)

I think all of the leading Dem candidates have their stengths and weaknesses, but I don't have any strong preference of one over the rest. I'm for any candidate who can win and bring the neo-con's reign of error to an end.

One of Hillary Clinton's strengths is that she'll respond immediately to smears just as she responded to the one thrown at her by the Pentagon political operative who attacked her for allegedly aiding the enemy. The worst thing about both Gore and Kerry was that they thought it was best not to dignify the lies told about them with responses. It was disastrous for both of them, since people viewed the non-responses as tacit admissions of guilt. Hillary, like her husband, will not make that mistake. I'd be happy to see Obama get the nomination, but I'm afraid he may be too nice a guy to deal effectively with the right wing fear-and-smear artists.

Houston (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:38 PM)

HP, Are you really that __________. Why would they waste anything that they had on her or Bill now? If this is your logic ,I see why you support her.

Heaven save us from stupid voters, not bad or dump people, just stupid.

Lyn, Silver Spring MD (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:40 PM)

Chuck and Mark - Rick Beaule' of Indiana, PA has made a good point.

J. Smith, Portland, OR (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:43 PM)

I have no negative opinion of Sen. Clinton. That, however, means nothing when so many others DO have a negative opinion. These opinions may or may not be based on rational thinking but these opinions do exist.
(I was interested in someone's post that she is to the left of Mr. Clinton. Most other left-leaning blog sites denounce her as being an R dressed as a D since she was an R before she married - at least according to those bloggers, I haven't verified that.)

It is my oft stated opinion that any strong supporter (as opposed to passive supporter) of abortion as is Sen. Clinton will lose the general election. Added to that position, her strong negatives will make this much much much less than a sure thing.

I'm thinking Richardson but haven't decided. I still really like Ron Paul too but I understand how impossible that would be.

I really hope that I'm wrong and that we don't end up with someone who is actually George Bush in different clothing.

Independent,Texas (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 3:52 PM)

LYN well not as stupid as you seem to think.
I have a problem with stupid DUMP people too.
I sure wish I knew what they are saving up to spew on the Clintons. I sure wish I was as smart as you Lyn!

H P Boston (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:04 PM)

I love to read what my fellow citizens are saying about Hillary Clinton, especially those who haven't even met her. Those of us in New Hampshire are fortunate that we can meet the candidates on many occasions and get to really know them. Believe me seeing is the real deal. Forget about how she is portrayed by the media, she is brilliant, warm and thourghly in command with all the issues we are now facing. After seeing almost all the candidates, I now believe she is the one person who is ready and cabable, from her first day in office, of getting the nation moving in the right direction and out of the mess Bush has gotten us into both at home and abroad. I invite all the skeptics to come to NH and witness first hand retail politics at its best.

Elliot F Lasky, Nashua, New Hampshire (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:12 PM)

-->>> HP, Are you really that __________.

-->> I have a problem with stupid DUMP people too.

So goes your proof.

Yes, the country would be much better off if we got rid of those stupid dump people.

HP, get some rehab.

Tex Latin, Spring Grove, MN (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:28 PM)

HP, Sorry about that, touche' "dumb". Don't worry you will find out soon enough IF she wins the primary. If however you really are interested in what will come, take off the "rose colored or Bill colored" glasses. It's bubbling under the surface. You don't have to be smart just observant, that is all.

Lyn, Silver Spring MD (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:28 PM)

> I love to read what my fellow citizens are saying about Hillary Clinton, especially those who haven't even met her. Those of us in New Hampshire are fortunate that we can meet the candidates on many occasions and get to really know them. Believe me seeing is the real deal. Forget about how she is portrayed by the media, she is brilliant, warm and thourghly in command with all the issues we are now facing. After seeing almost all the candidates, I now believe she is the one person who is ready and cabable, from her first day in office, of getting the nation moving in the right direction and out of the mess Bush has gotten us into both at home and abroad. I invite all the skeptics to come to NH and witness first hand retail politics at its best. <

Paid for by the Hillary Clinton for President Committee.

Jude Wiley (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:30 PM)

And how much money did you pay Jude? New Hampshire, where good booze and frank talk go together. Did Joe have any mixers this past weekend? Hillary Clinton has nothing in her records (senate, white house, or Rose law firm) that says she is even qualified to be president. She will be eaten alive by Rudy in a debate.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:40 PM)

Elliott, Don't need to...been there done that. That is the basis of my beliefs. Don't get me wrong, I was/am a huge Bill Clinton fan. Never cared for his wife, still don't. He is not a strong enough reason for me to vote for her.

She is the best example of everything I dislike about GWB. Simply being a democrat doesn't make it her or the actions right.

She is smart I will give you that, but what she will also represent is 4 more years of fighting and getting nothing done. With Hillary in the White House we will continue all that is bad and has been wrong with this country and the political system for over 10 years. She will never be accepted by over half of the country so we repeat the 90's all over again. Bill "bless is heart" is a wild card we never know what he will do.

The real question is, is it worth it? Is she the only smart Democrat? Is it Bill people are buying? If so what if something happens to him, what then? Right or wrong her whole campaign has been built around "what Bill did in the 90's". As Bill's theme song from the 90's said "yesterday's gone...don't stop thinking about tomorrow"

Lyn, Silver Spring MD (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:44 PM)

Yuo guilable and "be nice" and law abiding citesinry, non of the Dem. or Rep. candidates talk about restoring the Constitutional Republic, The IRS, the Federal Rezerve Board, policing the world, creating democracies but Ran Paul. Hear at least his message of what America can be what is has become. Everybody else is sameol sameol apealing to a fraction and not to the whole nation. Blacks rights, Gay rights, is all individual interests.

David Nakov, Long Beach, CA (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:48 PM)

hillary is a corporate owned entity, just like rudy , vote for edwards or ron paul they are the only 2 candidates that offer change

MK,MO (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 4:51 PM)

>> I have a problem with stupid DUMP people too. <<

I don't like dump people either. They smell bad.

Jesse's Girl (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 5:10 PM)

stupid DUMP people too <<<<<

Is this another Democratic voting block?

Can we expect the Dump People debates soon?

Harry Ross (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 5:13 PM)

No problem John Doe.When our military is the size of Lichtensteins,and Sharia Law starts popping up all over America we will have you guys to thank.

Lee Holmes (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 5:31 PM)

Mrs. Clinton can't get elected on her own, so America sees Mr. Clinton campaigning at her side, cashing in on some of his social capital, and trying to get her into the Oval Office.

Regardless of what most polls say, Sen. Obama continues to be a real threat, so the Clinton campaign gurus brought Bill in earlier than planned to help bolster Hillary's sagging numbers.

Her gurus have also tried softening her image, tried 'rebranding' her for MidWest appeal, and have embedded manipulative phrases or words in her speeches. All the while hoping that voters won't notice her subtle efforts to 'make nice' to America.

Sen. Clinton's too much a part of the establishment, and represents an unpleasant past filled with scandals, questionable ethics, and abuses of power. She's politically calculating and doesn't possess good judgement.

In contrast, Sen. Obama's authentic, decent, intelligent, a good policy maker, truthful, and a unifier. He consistently demonstrates sound judgement and perception. America needs a fresh start with a leader who will lead us forward.

It's time for Sen. Obama. He's who America needs next.

J. Smith, Portland, OR (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 5:55 PM)

HUCK-A-BEE!, HUCK-A-BEE!, HUCK-A-BEE! - January 20, 2009. You heard it here first, because I KNOW THE TRUTH. McCain is out of money and has waffled too many times, Romney is picking up where McCain left off, Guiliani is a closet DemoRat, and Fred can't make the jump from Law and Order. As far as the DemoRats, the only one with any sense is Richardson. However, his stumbling block will be immigration - "just let all the hermanos y hermanas in". Billary, no chance because the country's too polarized against her?, him?, whatever. And Obama, we're just not ready (and will never be) for a Muslim to be President - wonder what PAC organizations will be padding his pocketbook?!?!?! Besides, he's about as qualified as Jack In The Box. Listen to Huck on the issues, no duckin and jivin, no bs, just the facts ma'am. Circle the date, January 20, 2009 and write in "HUCK-A-BEE!" Remember, I KNOW THE TRUTH.

IKNOW THE TRUTH (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 5:56 PM)

Richardson has the experience, the credentials, and he is willing to Negotiate with his enemies rather than immediately insult them and go to war against them. He has not said to "let all the hermanos in". Check it out. He has a reasonable plan for immigration. Check it out. He understands the average person. His money comes from the average voter, not the rich cats. Check him out!

Llamamama, Vancouver Wa (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 7:24 PM)

Hillary is the ONE! And no, her supporters are not all women who don't read, and where is your written source for that BTW? As for Obama, I voted for him as Senator, except he's not doing such a great job because he's too busy running for President. Virtually no one I've talked with can say precisely WHY they support him, except he is a good speaker. WELL HOT DAMN! He has voted for every expense bill for the war, although he continues to say he's against the war. He's been given a free ride by the media and that is about the only reason he has so many supporters. If they really start to dig about in his background they will find out that his excuse for his relationship and financial dealings with indicted fundraiser Peter Roskow was that he was inexperienced with buying a house for the first time -- but he wants to hold the highest office in the country?? I think we've had enough"inexperience" in this position the last 7+ years. He'll be the AA Adlai Stevenson -- people pushed him into running before he was ready and he lost twice.

Marlene C. Chicago, Illinois (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 7:31 PM)

Marlene C. Chicago, Illinois (Sent Monday, July 23, 2007 7:32 PM)

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