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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Last night's debate (D)

Posted: Tuesday, July 24, 2007 9:19 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

One of our favorite dial testers, Rich Thau, had a group in New Hampshire of Democrats and indies. And like the CNN and Fox focus groups, his survey had Obama doing the best (in terms of improvement from pre-debate to post-debate; Obama and Edwards tied with the highest post-debate score).

Video: Handicapping the Democratic primary

We asked Thau about one specific moment -- the two answers Clinton and Obama gave to the Bush-Clinton fatigue question. Thau tells First Read: "Clinton spiked to 80 on first sentence about it being a problem Bush was elected in 2000.” But: “Proud of husband's record dips to 70s. Any one of us could be a better president than current President spikes back above 80.”

Obama: "...who has track record to bring about change" scores at 70."... who can overcome the special interests" spikes to mid 70s (high point of his answer)." So it looks like both answers worked...

The only GOP candidate mentioned last night by name was Mitt Romney. That had to make the folks in Boston smile. They are trying VERY hard to engage the Democrats on a daily basis. 

If you thought the debate was centered on Clinton and Obama, you weren't the only one. "Many questions in the nationally televised session were aimed at the two leading candidates, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), and they used the forum to challenge each other more directly than they have in past debates."

The format -- not the candidates -- was last night's star, the New York Times says. "Most of the video questions posed in last night’s Democratic debate were more memorable than the answers, proving that novices can ask good questions, but not necessarily elicit better answers than professional journalists."

Perhaps the biggest flaw of last night's TV event? The candidates were given the answers to the test. "Because many of the submitted questions -- ranging from health care to predatory lending by banks -- were posted online before the debate, the eight Democratic presidential campaigns were able to view many of the questions ahead of the debate and prepare answers."

The Washington Post's Shales seemed to like the YouTube questions, but was disappointed in the moderator. "Cooper was obsessed with the candidates' keeping answers brief, frequently interrupting them or cutting them off. This impulse, supposedly designed to curb long-windedness, leads to ‘debates’ that are just collections of quotes and sound bites, like political commercials, and is precisely the kind of thing that has helped trivialize issues and discourage voter interest."

Hotline On Call notes the gender imbalance of the questioners --  2-1 men vs. women

Obama’s missed jab… He took a shot at Clinton last night, but because the moderator missed the hit, many of the print reporters buried it. Says the Los Angeles Times in its 15th graph: "It was ‘terrific’ that Clinton asked the Pentagon about its plans, Obama said. ‘I also know that the time for us to ask how we were going to get out of Iraq was before we went in, and that is something that too many of us failed to do,’ he said. The partisan audience applauded. Clinton was expressionless." 

The NY Post gives the debate to Obama with the headline, “Obama chills Hill: Attacks her over Iraq in Wacky ‘snowman’ debate.”

The upside of the forum: "While some of the questions were on topics routinely raised in candidate forums, others were subjects rarely broached by journalists: whether the candidates had discussed sex education with their children, for one, and if speculation about Al Gore as a presidential contender "had hurt y'all's feelings?"

The Chicago Tribune adds that last night’s debate’s avoided “being this campaign season's version of a candidate playing saxophone on a talk show, the few dozen amateur questions that co-sponsor CNN selected from among almost 3,000 posted to YouTube led to a relatively lively and informative two hours.” 
 
Check out this headline in the Miami Herald: "Obama, Edwards say they would meet with Castro, Chavez." Is that a headline for a candidate who can carry Florida?

The Hartford Courant’s Lightman says Dodd “has been a constant critic of past debates, saying he did not get enough time and he was often ignored. By the end of Monday night's … affair, his actual air time still lagged behind front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as John Edwards. Dodd got 8 minutes, 39 seconds for his answers, roughly the same as New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. But Monday, Dodd did get the first question.”

And now for the pundit reviews… Politico's Simon gave the win to Edwards, followed by Clinton and Obama. He liked Edwards' voice raising, thought Clinton was playing not to lose, and that Obama's jabs at Clinton were good but too subtle.

Here's the Wall Street Journal's front-page teaser: "Clinton drove home her readiness to be commander-in-chief, while trading tweaks with Obama and Edwards in a Democratic presidential debate with queries taken from submissions via YouTube."

Iowa columnist Doug Burns scored it big for Clinton. "No longer should the question be: Can a woman be president? With her fourth in a series of crushing Democratic debate performances the question everyone in America should be asking themselves: What have we been missing by eliminating more than half our population from the application process for this job since the late 18th century?"

And the Des Moines Register’s Yepsen says “hats off” to CNN and YouTube for the debate format. As far as winners and losers, Yepsen calls Clinton “cool and cogent… Since she's the front-runner, until she stumbles -- or is tripped up -- she'll remain the front-runner.” He said Obama and Edwards “played to a draw.” He adds that Dodd and Richardson “gained the most.” He called Biden’s performance “mixed.” Kucinich “seems to be a protest candidacy - or an ego trip.” “Kooky,” “loose cannon” Gravel’s attacks “have grown tiresome and have moved beyond constructive criticism.”

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Comments

There's a big difference between winning the debate and showing the most improvement pre-debate to post-debate.  If that is what the CNN focus group was really measuring, it's misleading to say that Obama won the debate.  
Hillary Clinton has the "most" experience and will be able to start her plans from "day 1". hillaryclinton.com
Yawn; are we going to have a serious debate one of these days?
This is why voters not pundits dtermine elections.
One viewsers response to Pudits take on the foreign relations question.  

You said Clinton's answer on meeting our "enemies" leaders in the first year was better. I think it sounded more like Bush. Her rationale is let's make sure it can help me first then I'll meet under my terms and conditions. Obama said let's meet and we'll make something happen. Clinton's approach is no different than Bush's. If you don't think some low level diplomats are talking over coffee in Havana you are naive

By the way why do you think pudits are the only people  capable of determing whats realistic.  Maybe it is just the opposite
what I think the journalists miss is that the focus groups are the people who vote.  Like those of us who comment and you guys give more weight to your class instead.  
Yepsen, by the way, is a total clintonista.  no credibility on this issue.
You guys need to start giving us more credit for our thought as we are the voters.   It is our opinion that matters yet, on the news you guys go on and on about your favorite and dismiss our pick.  
this is wrong.  You guys may want the establishment one, Clinton but, we picked obama and our choice should trump the chattering class.
I thought Obama was very effective.  The format allowed Hillary to avoid confrontation over the fact that she has followed the American people, not lead on Iraq.  Obama is right.  The time to think about an exit strategy was before we went in.  Even Edwards, who has pressured for a more aggressive legislative confrontation without having the votes, failed as a Senator to provide oversight just like he and Hillary failed to even read the NIE before supporting the war.  These debates have been scattered and unfocused and it's letting people off the hook for spin.  Why don't we have a foreign policy debate, a climate change debate, a health care debate, a poverty debate, etc. instead of this thing where each candidate gets 30secs a question.
I think it is very clear now who the contenders are, If Obama is smart he will drop a little note to Hillary expressing his interest in being her running mate and maybe that will secure his bid for the following presidency after Hillary cleans up the Bush mess.  
hillary nor obama can win the general election, we don't need a president that spends $1200 a week on a make up artist or someone that so morally destitute they can't keep track of who they're current wife is, nominate edwards or we will be doomed to 4 more years of the middle class getting beat-up to entertain the wealthy elite
Obama was the only candidate that had new ideas.  I liked Biden's Federalistic reshaping of Iraq.  And he seems honest.  These are the two in fish bowl that are jumping, the rest are of the same, all goldfish with silver gills hiding next to the oxygen pump.......
My idea for a can't lose YouTube debate video: 2 snowmen asking the candidates if they'll be allowed to marry each other--and be able to bring up the "snowkids" in a world free of global warming.
The last thing Obama needs to do is offer himself up as a Hillary running mate. Even if America is forgetful enough to elect her the crap storm that will follow is nothing he wants to be tainted with. Ever wonder why the media seems to be pushing so hard for Clinton? It will make their main job of stirring up crap easier.
Maybe, hillary needs a colonoscopy to have several polop's removed, namely First Read's journalist. "DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICANS IS OVER"
Question: when will the media catch on that Biden, Clinton, Obama and Edwards want it both ways on Iraq? They all seek the anti-war vote and claim to support a U.S. withdrawal.

But then they become cautious - afraid of being attacked as whimps by Republicans - of the consequences of a withdrawal. They say they'll keep 20,000 to 50,000 troops in Iraq indefinitely. Biden in particular castigated Richardson during the debate for advocating a withdrawal of forces within one year.

Is Biden reading his own campaign website? On it he states: "Direct U.S. military commanders to develop a plan to withdraw and re-deploy almost all U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of 2007; Maintain in or near Iraq a small residual force -- perhaps 20,000 troops -- to strike any concentration of terrorists, help keep Iraq's neighbors honest and train its security forces."

Again, that is from Biden's website. Going from 160,000 troops to 20,000 in less than six months is a rapid withdrawal, the opposite of what Biden claimed was prudent last night.

Baghdad is Iraq’s largest city with 7 million residents. Iraq has 15 other major cities, hundreds of smaller cities and towns and thousands of villages with another 20 million people in a nation the size of California.
We don't have nearly enough troops now in Iraq to bring peace and stability to the country - and never will absent re-instating the draft and sending over 600,000+ soldiers, which of course should not and will not occur.

Keeping 20,000-50,000 troops in Iraq as Biden, Clinton, Obama and Edwards support means that the tens of thousands of insurgents and militia forces in Iraq will have a much easier time killing Americans. can concentrate all of their forces on a much smaller number of U.S. troops.

Richardson doesn't compromise and try to have it both ways. He understands that our troops are targets of all sides in a civil war.

Biden, Edwards and Clinton were wrong to vote for the war. And Biden, Obama, Edwards and Clinton are wrong today to advocate for an extended (even if reduced) deployment of U.S. forces in Iraq. The scars of this war of choice by President Bush and the members of Congress that supported it will last for generations. The longer we delay the inevitable, the deeper the wounds are inflicted.

Only Richardson has a solid, crystal clear plan for Iraq for two reasons:

1. He'll get the U.S. out completely and promptly - a total withdrawal.

2. Richardson has the foreign policy experience and expertise to wage the diplomatic offensive that will be necessary to see the region not descend into further conflict.
Hillary Rodham Clinton will be this countrys 1st female president. The US and the world will become a better place. I can't wait.
What kind of a debate allows the questions to be posted in advance?  What a joke.
I think everyone who would watch these agrees that they aren't real debates. With one every month or 6 weeks, is there some reason why we can't see 4 candidates one night, and the other 4 candidates several weeks later, all of whom get more time to answer than the current format? Isn't it better to have 2 hrs with half the candidates and twice the content than these soundbites without depth?
There is time to have issue debates.  For the first tme in a long time we have the opportunity to really see what each candidate is made of..lets take advantage of the length of this campaign and really get to know who we will be voting for.  Standard rule of getting to know someone is to give it 6 mo.  The real personality will surface by then.  I seem to already have my favorite, but after 4 to 6 mos of great issue debates...who knows.

I missed the debate but from what the article states and the messages posted here, only Richardson sounds like he would make an even remotely good President considering what he will do with what he inherits. That is unless Ron Paul wins the Republican Primary, then all bets are off.

I wouldn't mind at all seeing a woman, or black, or Mormon, or Catholic cross-dresser, or Hispanic become president. I just don't want Clinton, Obama, Romney, Guiliani, or Richardson to be president because the are all for big government.

Ron Paul is the last best hope for freedom in this bankrupt world.
I think it was interesting how Clinton was centered in the debate and allowed to wear a bright colored jacket further attracting attention to her.  Also, Clinton and OBama were given much more time than the other candidates were given.  Of course Hillary stood out, it was set up. Perhaps a coincidence, but more likely staged.

Many times it was noted by CNN that the major questions posed were of healthcare.  The candidate that got the most positive response on Healthcare was John Edwards and yet, for some reason, CNN seems to minimise Edward's contribution.  I believe they give more airtime to his wife, Elizabeth than to John Edwards.  Even then, it seems to be trying to put her on the spot.

I agree that Biden came across well, but it just seems this is not the time for a white male for President. I wonder, "Is that progress?"  I do wish the truly best candidate would rise to the top, I am not certain that is happening. Oh well, what's new.  Look at us now...G.W.Bush!!!  
I think it was interesting how Clinton was centered in the debate and allowed to wear a bright colored jacket further attracting attention to her.  Also, Clinton and OBama were given much more time than the other candidates were given.  Of course Hillary stood out, it was set up. Perhaps a coincidence, but more likely staged.

Many times it was noted by CNN that the major questions posed were of healthcare.  The candidate that got the most positive response on Healthcare was John Edwards and yet, for some reason, CNN seems to minimise Edward's contribution.  I believe they give more airtime to his wife, Elizabeth than to John Edwards.  Even then, it seems to be trying to put her on the spot.

I agree that Biden came across well, but it just seems this is not the time for a white male for President. I wonder, "Is that progress?"  I do wish the truly best candidate would rise to the top, I am not certain that is happening. Oh well, what's new.  Look at us now...G.W.Bush
Bill Richardson has some good ideas but frankly when he said health care should cover undocumented workers (illegal aliens) he lost my vote.  As every day passes we are watering down the great heritage upon which this country stands.  I want people to come to America to be Americans first, not for jobs, not to escape from whence they came but to be part of us.  To contribute, rather than take, to make us better, not poorer.  That doesn't mean to forget ones' heritage, it means to assimilate in a positive manner for the better of all.
The Hillary Obama ticket concept is a way to diffuse tension in choosing on or the other, but when asked about such a ticket, Frank Luntz's focus group last night overwhelmingly preferred Obama-Hillary over Hillary-Obama

http://search2.foxnews.com/search?access=p&getfields=*&output=xml_no_dtd&sort=date%3AD%3AS%3Ad1&ie=UTF-8&client=my_frontend&filter=0&site=video&proxystylesheet=my_frontend&q=luntz
first video in the list
What a waste of airtime! When is anyone going to ask serious hard questions and get them to commit to something? What's next, questions from a talking mule or elephant?
Forget the dabate. Since America existed, men rule
U.S.A. People of both gender will vomit, just to hear the name Hillary Clinton. So be it. Let's elect a woman president this time.**** She is capable, opponent of Hillary is the problem/obstacle.
Hillary is following in her husband's footsteps of being an excellent politician but not really a leader of substance. Near the end of the debate when a very legitimate question was posed to her about how much "change" her presidency would truly provide, seeing as how that would mean over 2 decades of the White House being controlled by 2 families, she ducked and spun instead of answering. Sure it was easy to get applause and laughter by bashing on Dubya but she ducked the question. Hillary as prez equals more of the same and being no dummy she knows this and will avoid direct confrontation of that fact as long as she can. The US needs a change and only two people can provide that, Barack Obama and Ron Paul. Sadly our flawed political system is such that only one of them has a realistic chance.
"What a waste of airtime! When is anyone going to ask serious hard questions and get them to commit to something?"

True enough, but the Dems won't go on Fox.  They are all scared, and moveon.org told them not to.


"What's next, questions from a talking mule or elephant?"

Now you're scooping Olberman's ideas.
Once again, the american public was bamboozled by the media.  I awoke to praises over last nights forum and the innovation that it provided for letting the public speak.  How we now could get the answers to the questions that we wanted asked.  The raves that were listed by the major news media outlets at how well things went.  Well wake up america, you didn't learn anything new.  The only comments from the candidates that I heard repeated today were the sound bytes provided by those very same news outlets playing on TV all day long.  What was rememberred by the public this morning, before the sound bytes came were, the snowman, the guy with the tattoo, the lesbian couple, etc.  All anyone really got out of last nights so called debate was another episode of america's funniest videos.  Once again there was no substance to the answers given to the questions and no information gleened from what each one of the candidates really believes in.  The highlight of the evening was the one gentleman who actually questioned the candidates on whether or not they were going to actually answer the questions posed to them rather than... "pardon the pun, beating around the bush".  It is about time we demand a real debate between the candidates without any fancy show or novelty.  Where they are required to answer the questions with some substance.  An answer that doesn't begin with, "well, I'm not going to do what so and so did, or let me explain why he or she's plan won't work".  How about for once actually answering the question without backpedaling or doing the two-step.  And that goes for both sides, republican and democrat.
What will it take to get people to realize Biden is the way to go. He's as real as they come, talks from the heart...and he happens to be the most well versed in important matters of state.
Of all the Dems running, Hillary has more experience from having been in Executive Branch as First Lady for 8 yrs, now as Senator for 6 yrs, BUT, AL GORE has even more experience as VP for 8 yrs and Senator from TN since 1976. He has the brilliance and intestinal fortitude to lead this country..after all, he DID win the popular vote in 2000. To me, the ultitmate ticket would be GORE/CLINTON, second choice ticket would be Gore/Biden ticket. If Al doesn't run, my next choice would be Clinton/Edwards.
I worked for Al Gore since his first run in 1976 (which he won..and all the ones since). After the 2000 election fiasco, they bought a house in my neighborhood, and getting to know he and Tipper on a more personal level, he is even funnier, more brilliant, laid back, and a great family man than people realize. The media always makes him seem stiff and not a "people person". I can attest that that is so far from the truth, and from all his national appearances on tv promoting his film, "An Inconvenient Truth", before AND after he won the Oscar for said film, people should now know from his demeanor on these shows that his "stiffness" was the demeanor he felt was needed as VP.
Being on the Finance Council for the TN Democratic Party for many years, I have had really fun times being guests at the Gores for fundraisers for local and national nominees, and getting to know, Sen. Biden, Gov. Richardson, former Senator Harold Ford, Jr., and many others. I can honestly say they all are very intelligent, committed men who dearly love serving this country. BUT, A GORE/CLINTON TICKET WOULD TAKE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THIS COUNTRY BACK FROM THE NUTS WHO HAVE NEARLY RUINED THIS GREAT COUNTRY OF OURS AND MADE US THE LAUGHINGSTOCK TO THE REST OF THE WORLD. My husband is VP and Controller for a large company with branches around the world, so we hear first hand from those who work in other countries how we are now looked down on since the Bushies took control. It is our duty to this country to set things right again by taking Democratic control of the White House and taking our place in the world again as a country to be envied, not despised.
Time for another Al Gore minute:  Al Gore has said "People should not be eating foods that were flown at great distances because it will add to the Global warming".  Un huh.  Two weeks ago, Al gore got his daughter married off.  There was a dinner for 75 people.  The Main Entree was Chilean Sea Bass, which was flown in fresh from South America.  Not only did it take a long trip to get it to Al's plate, but also, they are going to put the fish on the endangered species list!!!!  Don't think the environmental idiots whop called Al Gore their god want a piece of him right now.  Al Gore is not only a liar but also thinks he is just too good for the average folks.  Hey Vicki, I figure that Al Gore owes about $10,000 in carbon credits (a ponzi scheme).  You call Albert and tell him while he is trying to get his boy off the painkillers and grass, to make sure he wrote that check to cover the damage he did to the earth by flying that fish 8,000 miles to his plate!!!!!  By the way, I have not heard AL Gore around anywhere since the wedding.  Think he is hiding from the same people who once cherished him?
---> By the way, I have not heard AL Gore around anywhere since the wedding.

Saw him the other day.  Think 'Jabba the Hutt'.
The question that nobody has asked was, will George Bush be taken to court and tried for the murder of 1000s of people?or crimes against humanity, or is he immune to such Trial?
Obama clearly is the freshest voice that is out there. Granted he doesn't have Hillary's experience but that in this election is actually a positive. Meet with other world dictators? Hell yes! Amazing things can occur when there is dialogue. Look at what is happening when wars occur...mounting deficits, hundreds of thousands killed, wounded, maimed. It's clearly becoming Obama time!
>>>> The question that nobody has asked was, will George Bush be taken to court and tried for the murder of 1000s of people?or crimes against humanity,


No.
**** Meet with other world dictators? Hell yes! Amazing things can occur when there is dialogue.


Like, propaganda showing that these rogue leaders are somehow legit.

You, and Obama, are so naive.
Minimum Wage for the President?
How ludicrous!  Are we really to believe that Obama and Kucinich and Biden would be willing, as President, to accept the minimum wage of $5.85 per hour?  Have we in this country grown so politically timid and over-democratized that we’re afraid to distinguish between the hamburger flipper at the local diner and the president of the United States…?  It’s time the candidates smell the brew of truth take a sip of courage.
This is my website & email address.I don't care who likes or doesn't like it as I have been learning more on this website than any other that I've been on.By the way ,Could you send me my 2 cards from American Express .I think I can use them,God knows that I need them & so do you.  Nancy@msn.com
I really don't mind about it not being posted right away ,if ever?


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