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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, July 25, 2007 9:16 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Clinton vs. Obama: The two Democratic front-runners have finally engaged, rather than simply allowing their staffs to go back-and-forth. The only thing that strikes us odd about yesterday’s skirmish is that the candidates launched their attacks and counterattacks via such a small media venue (the Quad City Times). It's like two major deciding to go to war ... over the Falkland Islands. Yesterday our producers in New Hampshire tried to get Clinton to say her criticism on camera and she demurred. And neither candidate granted an interview to any other media on this issue. If neither candidate chooses to put their words on camera today, does this mean the skirmish is over?

Video: Clinton and Obama take off the gloves in 2008 spat

*** More On The Spat: Both sides appear to be going overboard on this issue: Obama's camp thinks this idea that they would do anything different than Clinton would on which world leaders they'd talk to (or even appear with) is absurd, while the Clinton camp believes Obama's answer at the debate is an example how he doesn't get that words matter and that should be a legit issue. Who was the biggest loser in yesterday’s renewed focus on Clinton versus Obama? So far, it might be the rest of the Democratic field. Indeed, how odd is it that a debate about preparation to be commander-in-chief is taking place and the three candidates with the lengthiest resumes for the job (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) are no where to be found on the debate?

*** Fred’s Shakeup: So let us get something straight: Fred Thompson is not yet a candidate, and he's already had to shake up his leadership? (Maybe that's the lesson to be learned from McCain -- get your shakeup out early!) That said, the choice of Spence Abraham is something that should make establishment Republicans happy. He's got a good reputation as a strategist -- remember, before he served in the Senate, Abraham ran the GOP House campaign committee. Still, the shakeup before the campaign started only fuels speculation among some that Thompson's fledgling candidacy has gotten off to a rocky start (mixed reviews of his speeches, questions about his conservative credentials, delays in his campaign kickoff) before it truly has begun. There’s additional speculation that Thompson’s campaign is being micro-managed by his wife, Jeri.

*** Things That Make You Go, Hmmmm: A Bloomberg presidential candidacy has always seemed remote to many of us. But this mike2008.com Web site is already more detailed about this potential candidacy than the one Fred Thompson started (imwithfred.com). The Bloomberg folks say this was done to prevent cyber-squatting, but come on. Why shouldn't we start referring to Bloomberg as officially "exploring" a presidential campaign?

*** DLC, Yeah You Used To Know Me: The AP writes that none of the Democratic presidential candidates will be attending the centrist Democratic Leadership Council’s conference this coming weekend. The news service says it’s "a snub that says less about the centrist DLC than it does about a nomination process that rewards candidates who pander to their parties' hardened cores while ignoring everybody else.” But perhaps more importantly, the DLC turned out to be wrong -- in most Democrats’ eyes -- on the Iraq war. For better or for worse, the Democratic Party is now the party of Dean and Daily Kos (in fact, at least five of the top six ’08 Dems have confirmed they’ll attend next month’s Yearly Kos conference). It worked for them in 2006… Will it be true again in 2008?

*** The E-Word: Today is as good of a day as any to understand why Giuliani is so resilient as one of the GOP front-runners. The Washington Post/ABC poll suggesting that electability is trumping questions about Giuliani's socially liberal views is one way. Then there's the LA Times’ Brownstein insightful column that pinpoints just how Giuliani has avoided getting trapped in a death spiral for those liberal social views: he's a pure federalist, advocating for states to decide on their own what social issues to legislate and how to legislate them. And then there's Hillary Clinton. As long as she's the Democratic front-runner, the electability argument will always work for Rudy, right? That's what the campaign is banking on.

*** On The Trail: Brownback is in Iowa; so is Edwards, who participates in the Des Moines Register’s Annual Bicycle Ride Across Iowa with Lance Armstrong; Huckabee is also in Iowa; McCain campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama is in New York then DC; Richardson stumps in Iowa; Romney makes a whopping seven stops in New Hampshire; and Fred Thompson travels to Houston and Dallas.
 
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 17 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 40 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 87 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 104 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 115 days
Countdown to Iowa: 172 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 194 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 468 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 545 days

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Comments

I say we all take a 3 week vacation, like the Iraqi Parlement is doing? Let's just put the war on hold.
All the above is nothing more than untreated sewage from a downwardly spiraling ex-society.  Fly fishing for trout in the Rockies holds elegant simplicity and purity for mind and body.  Save yourselves if possible.
I just want to point out that the Democrats are proposing to vastly expand the SCHIP plan for providing state funded healthcare to people. Initially the program was intended to help insure children whose parents could not afford coverage for them. The initial restrictions were that the family could not earn more then 200% above the official poverty level. The new proposal expands that to 300% and some Democrats are hoping to expand it to 400% meaning that a family of four making $82,600 a year would get "free" healthcare. However, to me anyway, the worst part of this proposal is how they intend to pay for it; with a $0.61 per pack increase in the federal tax on cigarettes. This is essentially a tax on poor people. The lowest 1/5 of income earners in America are by far and away the same people that buy the most cigarettes. So, potentially, we will have a single mom with two kids making $20,000 a year essentially paying for a family of four making $75,000 a year's healthcare! Does this seem counter-intuitive to anyone else?
Re: the argument between Clinton and Obama: how great is it to hear strategy and policy debated for a change instead of personal smears and empty rhetoric? Our democracy lives! Go Dems!
Allowing for the fact that First Read started as an insider on-line newsletter, it's still irritating to your broader audience to see how self-obsessed your staff is in its lead items, now  boo-hooing because yesterday's 2-character bout you want this entire election to become (way too soon) wasn't played out on your air, but in a smaller print medium. Your words drip with the disdain that is seriously undermining media credibility more and more each day. It isn't about YOU, it's about the country!
"It worked for them in 2006… Will it be true again in 2008?" Really? Had nothing to do with digging up conservatives to run? Really? KEEP MOVING ON TO THE EXTREME LEFT PLEASE :-)
I think Bush should stay in DC during the American congress' break, and the Iraqi Parliament should keep working then turn around an insult their enemies here at home for taking a break.
Who is the real Hillary Clinton?
(1) she votes for the Iraq war.
(2) in 2006 she impedes the democrats attempt to have a timetable for withdrawal.
(3) in an earlier CNN debate she says that the USA is safer since 9/11, but last week the CIA says the opposite

Now she wants to end the war and have a timetable.

Money can’t buy this kind of experience, but it sure can prevent the news media from showing her inconsistency

Can you tell that I thought Obama won?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yuMdnktphM
PLEASE "DO NOT DISTURB" WE ARE ON A 3 WEEK VACATION.IF YOU NEED ASSISTANCE JUST CALL UPON A U.S. SOLDIER FOR PROTECTION.
THANKS G.W. ! THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
It's not gonna happen dave, it's hard work running the most powerful country in the World into the cesspool that he has done. He need's an entire month off again to catch up with jerry in CC & see what else can be done to the American people.
All the democrat contenders are losers, except Gravel, he is the only honest democrat running.  Let Obama and Hillary tear each other apart.  Time to find out who is more man; Hillary or Obama.  Hillary is portrayed as a centrist and she won't go to a democratic meeting?  This will ensure the republicans keep the White House in 08.  The country will realize what a bunch of druggies and nitwits the far left truly are.  America is not ready for a way far left turn just yet.  Those Daily Kos nutjobs are truly amazing, even calling for their own democratic frontrunners to die.  I watched O'Reily last night and I can see why Hillary is deathly afraid of them.  her own spokesman refused to say anything abd about them.  With Hillary refusing to go on Fox News, people seem to think that Hillary's team is nothing but a bunch of yellow bellies and won't even talk about their own extreme left!!!!  Tragic.
"QUIET" PLEASE, WERE TRYING TO REST ON OUR 3 WEEK VACATION.WOULD YOU ASK THEM TO STOP BOMBING.
Ah Jerry, you get informed by Bill O'Reilly... that explains your postings.  

All I can say is, you can agree with him or disagree with him, but if you think Obama is actually dishonest, you're a really terrible judge of character - and I mean so terrible a judge of character I'm surprised you haven't sent your life savings to Nigeria yet.

I mean seriously, you're trusting Bill O'Reilly, but think Obama is untrustworthy.  Do you want to be admitting this publicly to people with IQ's over 10?
<snip>
The lowest 1/5 of income earners in America are by far and away the same people that buy the most cigarettes. So, potentially, we will have a single mom with two kids making $20,000 a year essentially paying for a family of four making $75,000 a year's healthcare! Does this seem counter-intuitive to anyone else?
</snip>

No, not really. Don't smoke and you'll save a fortune and get the same healthcare benefits as that family of 4!

Cigarettes are expensive today as it is. Why not heavily tax something that is one of the root causes of the huge expense of healthcare today? Ever see what it costs to treat diseases associated with smoking? The more expensive it is, the less it will be used. That can't be anything but good for people.
How many cups of coffee have you had today, Jerry? It's only 8:30 and you're already talking about how big a bunch of "losers" the democratic frontrunners are. If that is the worst thing the right-wing can come up with, I'll certainly take it. This is especially considering what can be said of the current right-wing administration: treasonous, criminals, war mongerers...I'd go on, but I should ssve some for later.
It's time for Obama to start pointing up the POLICY differences between him and Hillary.
And Hillary gave him an opening!!

For god's sake, GO FOR IT !!

Hillary was irresponsible to support the Iraq War !!

Hillary was naive/evil to believe George Bush/ or PRETEND she believed George Bush about WMDs.
She was stupid if she did, she was evil if she didn't.

Hillary voted for an irresponsible and unjust war to enhance her political standing.

A majority of Senate Democrats voted against the war when it was politically unpopular to do so.

Hillary supported the war when it was popular and oposed the war when it was politically unpopular.

WHO'S IRRESPONSIBLE ??

Hillary's 'experience' serves only to make her more slippery and devious. (just like you know who)
She really should get Karl Rove to be her running mate.

Clinton/Rove '08 Come over to the dark side   ;-)
Oh, I doubt if she will personally respond back.  Someone (probably Bill) got to  her and said cool that temper.  Remeber the "NEW and IMPROVED" image we are trying to craft!!!!  LOL
This is a terrible mistake on the part of Obama. It highlights his nascent view of the role of the Presidency in a complex world, as well as his tendency to dismiss important details while indulging his preference for the broad and ambiguous.

The question, while complex, was clear: As President, would you be willing to meet, individually, with the leaders of Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela within a year of taking office and without preconditions.

Obama: "Sure!". Clinton: "Not so fast!".

This would be a second time where Obama didn't pay attention to the details of a question.

In the first debate, when asked about how, as President, he would respond to a double-attack by Al Quaeda, Obama rambled on about first responders and determining who was behind the attack.

It's not Clinton's fault that Obama failed to grasp the pertinent details of thoughtful questions. And, she has every right to point out his lack of understanding and attention to detail in his answers.

You have to get up pretty early to beat Clintons. Obama, it seems, is still sleeping in.
>>> talking about how big a bunch of "losers" the democratic frontrunners are.


Hillary is as corrupt as they come.

Obama is naive.

Edwards won't say anything until he first checks to see if it's okay with his wife.


Losers.
"Indeed, how odd is it that a debate about preparation to be commander-in-chief is taking place and the three candidates with the lengthiest resumes for the job (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) are no where to be found on the debate?"

Here's a thought; call each of them up and interview them on the subject. Or, don't you guys at MSNBC do scoops?
Jerry keep saying that the Democrats are losers considering that a big majority of your voters are dissatified with a field of white rich men who are either flip-flopper (Romney), a trice divorced and mob connected via Kerik gigolo, a once maverick now toast, 3 right wing fanatics who do not believe in evolution and a third rate actor who has as much speaking charisma as watching paint dry. The only one I would vote for is Ron Paul. Democrats have nothing to worry about.
PLEASE LEAVE A MESSAGE, WERE ON VACATION FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS.LEAVE YOUR NAME, TIME OF YOUR CALL, AND NUMBER WE'LL BE BACK IN TOUCH WITH YOU IN ABOUT A MONTH.
The Democratic Leadership Conference (sic) was America's first 'Axis of Evil'. It was funded by large corporations to establish corporate interest in the Democratic party. Among the early leaders of the DLC: Bill Clinton, Lyin' Al Gore, Joe Lieberman, 'Scoop' Jackson. A rogues gallery of conservative Democrats. That's why Bill Clinton's policies were referred to as 'Republican light'. They were Republican policies. NAFTA, WTO, de-regulation. That's why Democrats stopped standing for anything except opportunistm

Die DLC Die !!
Good riddance to dirty trash !!
Michael - Taxes on cigarettes have gone way overboard.  Ryan talks about a $.61 increase per pack?  In Iowa this year, they added an additional $1 per pack, so it now costs nearly $5 per pack.  A few years ago, it cost half that.    

Let's not forget that nicotine is an addiction.  Can it be beaten?  As with any other addiction, it can, but it is not easy.  To say "just don't smoke" is oversimplistic, and equivalent to telling an alocohilic "just don't drink" - it's not helpful to the discussion at all.  Because smokers are disproportionately lower income, these taxes affect them a lot more than they do people who have money.  The fact that they are dealing with the issues of poverty probably stresses them out, which probably makes them more dependent on their addiction.  It's a vicious circle.  

And let's not also forget that tobacco is legal.  People have as much right to buy cigarettes as they have to buy M&Ms.  Isn't obesity becoming a huge healthcare issue, too?  Maybe we should start taxing chocolate and potato chips at ridiculous rates, just because someday the people who eat them might have serious health complications.  

 
IT'S TO "HOT" OUTSIDE, AREN'T YOU GLAD WE TOOK A 3 WEEK VACATION ? SURE BEATS ALL THAT ARGUEING AND GETTING NO POLITICAL SOLUTIONS DONE.
I think all the Dems could beat any of the low life republicans running---didn't Newt call them pygmies?he is a pygmy also just doesn't know it.
Michael - A couple things:

1.) Your post made me think of an odd kind of scenario that this presents. In an odd kind of way, the Democrats need people to keep on smoking in order to pay for the healthcare expansion. Essentially they should start trying to promote cigarette use whenever possible.

2.) According to some studies I've seen, including one in the New England Journal of Medicine, smokers actually save taxpayers money. The argument is, is that despite some high expenses for healthcare most smokers die "early" and thus less of a burden for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. The study basically concluded that if everyone stopped smoking healthcare costs would go up, not down.
HAVE YOU SEEN ANYONE FROM THE IRAQI PARLEMENT LATELY, TRYING TO SOLVE THEIR POLITICAL DIFFERENCES ? NO I HAVENT , THEY ARE "ALL" ON VACATION FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS, LUCKY DOGS!
>>> talking about how big a bunch of "losers" the democratic frontrunners are.


Hillary is as corrupt as they come.

Obama is naive.

Edwards won't say anything until he first checks to see if it's okay with his wife.


Losers.


Anyone else hear a wanking sound coming from the right side of the room?
Sierra - A majority of the Senate Democrats voted yes on the resolution.  Only 21 voted against the resolution, while the rest of the Democrats (28?  29?  I can't seem to count today) voted for it.  


http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=107&session=2&vote=00237
Michael - Other than that coming from you?  Is there any Democrat that you DO believe is competent?
Repub front runners- McCain, early alzheimers and made the biggest mistake of his life by crawling up Bushes butt. Hmm lets see, Guliani likes to dress up like a female, has been married to his 1st cousin and flaunted his new girlfriend(now his wife) in front of the media and his current wife, ah is connected to mafioso types. Freddy Krueger Thompson has a much younger wife and we still haven't heard all the other skeletens in his closet-which is why he hasn't jumped in the race yet. Ahh, Mr Mormon..heh heh, don't need to say more. LOSERS!!!
HELLO...NO THE IRAQI PARLEMENT IS NOT IN, PLEASE CALL BACK IN A MONTH. I'AM SURE THEY WILL RETURN YOUR CALL ASAP. AND REMEMBER THEIR MOTTO," NO HURRY" THE GOOD OLD USA HAS OUR BACK.
I went on the daily Kos website.  My god what a bunch of sons and daughters of 60's hippie freaks.  I'm shocked you libs haven't started burning down Starbucks coffee shops due to them raising the price of coffee.Yes, Michael, glad you can call yourself that.  Shadow, maybe I should rethink...after all anyone with ties to the MOB can't be that bad, can he?
Stop bitching about cigarette taxes. Democrats need to pay for their new slaves some how. If we can buy enough people's self respect we'll never lose power again. Just look what we done to blacks in America. So hush up and stay in line.
"And let's not also forget that tobacco is legal.  People have as much right to buy cigarettes as they have to buy M&Ms.  Isn't obesity becoming a huge healthcare issue, too?  Maybe we should start taxing chocolate and potato chips at ridiculous rates, just because someday the people who eat them might have serious health complications."



Amusing as it is to compare tobacco and nicotine to steak and potatoes, the former is a poison while the latter is not.

Personally, I look at cigarettes in the same light I view cocaine and heroin. Two are illegal and get you time in jail. The third is just as dangerous and just as deadly. It truly is a "pick your poison" society we live in today.
BUSH'S NEW APPROVAL RATING, JUST OUT  -.0000000000.1% THANKS G.W. FOR ALL YOU DO !
[[[I went on the daily Kos website. ]]]

May God have mercy on your soul.  That place makes the insane lefties around here look like Newt.
The big mistake the Dems are making is going to Daily Kos instead of DLC. It may be fatal. Watch the GOPers have a party with that one--I'm sure they'll be reprinting the posts wishing that the bomb attempt on Cheney's life had been successful, all of the anti-semitism, etc.

2006 may be the best thing that happened to the GOP (2004 certainly was the worst).
Michael - Other than that coming from you?  Is there any Democrat that you DO believe is competent?


Obama. Fresh voice, fresh ideas, fresh energy, isn't the corporate whore that Hillary is. He's intelligent, energetic, and has already given plans to get us the hell out of Iraq as well as to get to the heart of the war on terrorism, using diplomacy where missiles and bombs have failed.

In case you haven't noticed, our current position of isolating these nations has done nothing more than polarize them even more against us. Just because the man is willing to sit at the same table with these leaders doesn't mean he's going to hand over the keys to the nukes and the White House.

All I've heard from the right is the continued drum beat of war. The continued drum beat of our need to remain in Iraq, our need to fight terrorists wherever they may be so we're not fighting them on our shores. It's old, it's tiring, and it give us our nation back. At least with Obama, I can see the US going back to what it once was--a great nation. If you can't see that, I pity you.

Jerry is a machine powered by extra thick Kool-Aid,
injected straight to the brain via a tube up the rear.

Do not press the play button on the jerry, go directly to the last line on post.

BY PASS ALL LOL'S THIS IS NOT A JOKE.

DO NOT READ message light will appear as  soon as jerry cc/tx shows up.
Buy smaller cars oooooops we're losing taxes because you're saving gas. We need to put a GPS tracker on you car so we know how many miles you drive. Oh don't worry we would never use that info against you.
Bill O'Reilly: a married sexual deviate who makes obscene telephone calls to his female assistants; a man who blames an 11 year old boy, Shawn Hornbeck, for his own kidnapping by a pedophile, and thankfully was asked not to speak at the Center for Missing and Abused Children, because of assigning blame to the boy.  If one gathers one's news of the world from this pervert...than that would go a long way to explaining the inane posts I have observed.  However,  Bill O'Reilly and has supporters should be commended for giving The Daily Kos such great  publicity, and making the wildly popular site even more popular...free of charge.
I'LL SAY GOODBY FOR NOW I'AM HEADING OUT ON MY 3 WEEK VACATION.DON'T CALL ME I'LL CALL YOU.
Coy Reese, you Olbermann's go-for?  Cause he's looking for you.
If what is being written about Hillary Clinton is true on the daily Kos website, she'd better double up her secret service protection when she goes on their little debate thingy.
Hot Dam is the excess methane gas produced at those landfill sites.
Ryan, Michigan / I agree ryan targeted taxation is a poor way to fund anything, if universal healthcare is to ever work it has to be all inclusive with every american paying they're share. the people that own the goverment will take control of targeted taxation and the poor will just end up being poorer. but there definitly needs to be a change in america's healthcare system, it sucks
jerry, it really makes me angry when you allude to the possibility of a candidate being assassinated.
The last thing we need in this country is to ratchett up the violent rhetoric. Knock it off.
Mr kook Jerry is making up names again and his fake people and comments usually come right before and after his statements. What a loon. Hector Perez Jerry? Oh please...You are such an obvious stupenagle. And you do, SO HATE women.


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