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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



‘Shocked’ if he doesn’t win Ames

Posted: Wednesday, July 25, 2007 9:56 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Romney has a healthy lead in recent Iowa polls. Tommy Thompson barely registered in last month's Mason-Dixon poll with just about 2% behind Brownback (6%) and Huckabee (7%) -- not to mention McCain, Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Romney (25%). And he had to hold a conference call last month to tell reporters he wasn’t dropping out of the presidential race.

But on his chances at the Ames straw poll, Tommy Thompson told the blog Pajamas Media on camera, “If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.” He added, “I wouldn’t say Romney’s in trouble, but I’d say I think it’s going to be between Romney and myself.”

Hmm. I wonder what the second-tier snipers (er, Brownback) will think of that.

Video: Can Thompson get traction?

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LOL, then I suggest paying off a few voters Tommy.  I'd be double shocked and jump off a bridge if he won!
Huckabee & Garvel is my pick for President & VP.  The rest of the candidates are the normal D.C. wall paper from both parties. They have been saying or not saying the same thing every 4 years and never doing anything they promise. They are too busy paying back lobbyist. At least with Huckabee and Gravel you get a fresh set of faces I do respect and truth tellers and not gas bags that are running now.
jerri girl you such a good gossiper, just the perfect repub wife.
Tommy Thompson scares me... I feel like he's going to strip naked and run around yelling, "I'm the politician, not the actor, AHBUURRBBBAAHH!"  *shutters* I'm going to call him, Nutty Nutson.
Thommy thinks he'll win because everyone will think they're voting for Fred.
Romney is the only Republican candidate who has a chance at winning his party's nomination.  I think this race is already over.  It's Romney vs. whoever the Dems put on the ballot.
Mr.Romney will not be the nominee because he is a stinken Mormon.
Romney appeals to social conservatives because he is the only family man running.
Romney is not the only family man running.  That's the dummest thing I've heard yet.  Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are basically the only NON-family men running...

Ron Paul appeals to people who want to be free and live under a government with rational limits on it...that's who I'm voting for
It seems a lot of people are also ignoring the strong performances of congressman Ron Paul in Iowa.  His competing rally earlier drew a larger audience than the Iowans for Tax Relief candidate's forum...
CHad, you may as well vote for Mickey Mouse. He has as much chance to win, and a better platform, too.
FStLouis - Thanks for the ad hominem attack.  While your at it, why don't you tell us how evolution suggests that Obama should be picking cotton instead of running for President, Hillary doesn't have the brain capacity to run because of her gender, Richardson should be out picking tomatoes and dodging pesticide, and Bloomburg can't get your vote because his people killed Jesus.  This forum should be a place for intelligent debate, not racial, religious, or sexist slander.
PLease, Please, PLease nominate Mitt...please with sugar on top....he'll be slaughtered in the general election, even if he runs against Hillary....his being a flip-flopping moron will lead him to defeat...being a Mormon won't help either:-)
Brian, I do not normally agree with you, but your 1:53 post was great. Thank you for putting FStLouis comments in perspective. We do not need posts like his.

Thanks again.
Chad states "Ron Paul appeals to people who want to be free and live under a government with rational limits on it...that's who I'm voting for". Correct me if I'm wrong but Ron Paul would do away with almost all government in favor of privatization? You consider that "rational"?
Anytime Ken, thanks for the compliment.
With you too Brian.  Two-thumbs up for standing up to the haters.
"Correct me if I'm wrong but Ron Paul would do away with almost all government in favor of privatization? You consider that "rational"? "  Ok, I'll correct you.  Yes, it is rational.  How many government programs are doing 'well' right now?  Checked out how many trillions in current dollars social security and medicare are underfuned?  One of the few things our government SHOULD be doing, maintaining an army, it is doing poorly.  Just check how many experts have called the army 'broken', or the Walter Reed scandal.  And considering the Walter Reed scandal, I cannot believe some people want the gov't to run healthcare, when it cannot even run successfully the healthcare for its army.  There are certain functions of gov't we do need...do not think that when Ron Paul says he wants to get rid of the Dept of Education he wants to get rid of public education, he just wants it taken care of at the local level.  The fed gov't just adds more bureacracy and waste.
I'm voting for Ron Paul because he is the only candidate who even talks about the national debt.  The true test of whether or not the other guys give a damn about this country is if they would be willing to address our massive debt. We borrow $3 billion every day from China... hello? I know it's not just Ron Paul and I who believe this is madness. Our national debt is currently equal to our entire gross national product... times three! It would take everyone paying $175,000 to eliminate the debt. The current "conservatives" in power promise low taxes, but deficit spending now means MORE TAXES LATER!

Ron Paul doesn't want to "privatize" anything. He wants the federal government to be limited to the Constitution. He may be a libertarian philosophically, but if the States want to have social programs and socialism, that's fine. But under our Constitution, the Federal government has no authority to do much of what it is doing. Not only is it illegal, it is also counter-productive (no child left behind) and costly (70 trillion in total obligations). We need Ron Paul before we go broke.
If you believe you should get something for nothing, you gain special rights by joining collective groups, the government is designed to provide anyone at any time a safety net, corporate lobbying improves society, government regulation creates competitive business, and Muslims hate us "because we are free," do not vote for Ron Paul.

Otherwise, you might want to check him out. He embodies equal individual rights, a free market (which cannot be created by mandates or central banking), low taxes, no deficits, non-interventionism (only candidate to put into action an effort to stop the war), and LIBERTY.
If you can look at the big picture, Ron Paul is the only one to vote for!  Most of the country has no idea what going on with the Federal Reserve, North American Union, or the Real ID act. Do the reseach people!

Ron Paul will be the one to restore our freedoms.
I'm a diehard socialist, but if Ron Paul wins, I will actually vote for him-and I'm not the only left-winger who will do the same.
Chad, Philadelphia, PA wrote, "Ron Paul appeals to people who want to be free and live under a government with rational limits on it...that's who I'm voting for."

I thought Ron Paul was a Democrat.  
"Correct me if I'm wrong but Ron Paul would do away with almost all government in favor of privatization?"

Not exactly. He has stated he'd like to get rid of about 80% of the federal government, but likely most of that would be shifted to local/state government.

Thompson doesn't have a chance in this poll. Does he really believe himself?


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