Oh-eight (R): The battle for Ames
Posted: Monday, August 06, 2007 9:08 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
Republicans
As everyone gets prepared for next Saturday's Ames Straw poll, we figured we'd set the stage with a flashback to eight years ago. Nearly 25,000 Republicans voted in the event (we say "Republicans" and not Iowa Republicans because we can't be sure everyone was from Iowa). So here are the results, and we'll let the rest of the chattering class set Romney's expectations bar. In 1999, just one major candidate skipped the straw poll: John McCain. This year, three major candidates are skipping it: McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. So does that mean fewer than 25,000 Republicans will show up? Probably. Does that mean Romney should win by more than 10 points? You be the judge. We're guessing the Romney goal is 40%.
Results from the Aug. 14, 1999 Iowa GOP straw poll; 23,685 votes were counted:
Votes %
George Bush 7,418 31%
Steve Forbes 4,921 21
Elizabeth Dole 3,410 14
Gary Bauer 2,114 9
Pat Buchanan 1,719 7
Lamar Alexander 1,428 6
Alan Keyes 1,101 5
Dan Quayle 916 4
Orrin Hatch 558 2
John McCain 83 0
John Kasich 9 0
Bob Smith 8 0
In the 1995 straw poll (the infamous "tie" result), just fewer than 11,000 folks turned out, and that poll was riddled with accusations of non-Iowan participation.
The Sunday Des Moines Register has a guide for the Ames straw poll.
A Real Clear Politics survey of 30 Iowa GOP county chairs has Romney (not surprisingly) as the clear favorite to win the straw poll. But the candidate who’s predicted to finish second? Tancredo.
The new Washington Post-ABC poll of Iowa GOP caucus goers indicates Romney's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. "Just 19 percent of likely GOP caucus attendees said they were "very satisfied" with the field of candidates -- far below satisfaction levels among Iowa Democrats -- and poll respondents were badly fractured when asked to rate the candidates on political and personal attributes."
GIULIANI: Wow, did the Giuliani campaign catch a break from the New York Times or what! The Judith Giuliani profile/interview seemed to break little ground, though we do get a glimpse of someone who plans to take a MUCH lower profile, modeling herself after Laura Bush, apparently. The piece had some snark (see her health care qualifications), but overall was favorable.
ROMNEY: In its debate wrap, the Boston Globe front-pages that “Romney says he erred on abortion.”
Not every YouTube for Romney has been negative. Some believe his back-and-forth with an Iowa talk show host last week revealed a side to Romney that was both powerful and imperfect.
This account of Romney's argument with the Iowa talk show host shows that maybe there is a toughness inside of Mr. Perfect.
F. THOMPSON: Has there been a bigger gift to the Giuliani campaign than Jeri Thompson? Think about it, Judi Giuliani would have been all the buzz this weekend if not for the multiple stories about Mrs. Thompson.
The Newsweek piece on Mrs. Thompson is chock full of intrigue, including this: "People are starting to wonder if she's more into this than he is," a Thompson adviser tells NEWSWEEK. The magazine also uncovered a previous marriage for Mrs. Thompson that the campaign, for some reason, is neither confirming nor denying. The Newsweek subhead says it all: "She wields tremendous influence over her husband's would-be presidential campaign. But who is Jeri Thompson—and why won't the campaign discuss her?"
The Washington Post also profiled Mrs. Thompson over the weekend and was a bit more flattering. By the way, the Post got an interview with the alleged ex-husband who claims the two never did marry.
Despite Spencer Abraham's presence, the Detroit News sees Thompson's chances in Michigan as being uphill.
