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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Clinton and Iraq

Posted: Monday, August 06, 2007 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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The Chicago Sun-Times curtain-raises tomorrow's forum, which is starting to look more like a debate, isn't it?

Here’s the Boston Globe’s wrap of the YearlyKos convention. “None of this season's Democratic presidential candidates have lit the blogosphere on fire the way Howard Dean did in 2004. Clinton's vote to authorize the war in Iraq puts her on the outs with bloggers. Barack Obama's efforts to appear bipartisan have dampened enthusiasm for him. John Edwards is the favorite here -- although not by that much -- for his liberal platform and his heavy use of the Internet.

CLINTON: Here's a new one: "cheerful boos" -- that's how Salon describes the reception Clinton received among the Netroots at YearlyKos, and that apparently is a good thing for her. Frankly, anything less than a mixed reception, and it would have been a bad weekend for her.

The AP's Ron Fournier -- the political journalist who has perhaps covered the Clintons the longest -- writes that not everything during President Clinton's eight years is a good thing for candidate Clinton. "A San Francisco blogger made that painfully clear to Sen. Clinton during the Yearly Kos Convention, when he asked whether she would support or repeal four major pieces of legislation enacted during the Clinton administration _ the Defense of Marriage Act, the Telecommunications Act, the North American Free Trade Agreement and welfare reform. All four laws are unpopular with liberal voters who historically dominate Democratic primaries and caucuses. The political landscape for Democrats has changed since the 1990s on issues such as gay rights, trade and welfare reform _ due in part to the rise of the influential and polarizing liberal blogosphere. That means candidates like Clinton must shift, too, or defend their refusal to do so."

On Saturday, the New York Times does a C.W.-setting story on the "slow" shift Clinton has made on the war.  "The senator, who voted in 2002 to authorize the invasion of Iraq, has over the past year gradually repositioned herself on the war, the issue that her advisers have long viewed as the biggest obstacle to her winning the presidential nomination. In a series of speeches, interviews and Senate votes, Mrs. Clinton has brought her stance much more in line with Democratic primary voters and the positions of most of her Democratic rivals --and has done it, so far, without sustained accusations of flip-flopping."

So how did she pull it off without being called a flip-flopper? The credit/blame goes to her opponents, who didn't seem to call her on it with the intensity, let's say, that Romney's GOP foes called him on his policy evolutions. Of course, Clinton's opponents will blame the press -- and there’s some merit there -- but the example of Romney shows how Clinton's opponents may have dropped the ball on this one. Of course, Clinton's shift on the war also was much more gradual than Romney's sudden shifts on key conservative issues.

The New York Times’ Zeleny noted that Clinton and Obama aren’t BFFs. “The relationship began to change, according to several Democrats who are friendly to both senators, when Mr. Obama began musing aloud about a presidential bid. The day he opened his exploratory committee, several Senate observers said, he extended his hand and said hello on the Senate floor. She breezed by him, offering a cool stare.”

Environmentalists are not happy with Clinton and are using Obama to let her know about their unhappiness? So reports the New York Post: "Environmentalists charge that Hillary Rodham Clinton is stonewalling vital Senate legislation to halt the export of mercury - a deadly neurotoxin - sponsored by her chief presidential rival, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.)" 

EDWARDS: The candidate was in Iowa on Sunday, where he said organized labor is "the single best anti-poverty movement in history."

OBAMA: Here's a question for ya: Had the Obama campaign not put up a TV ad claiming his campaign was not paid for by PACs and Washington lobbyists, would the Los Angeles Times bothered to examine his FEC reports as thoroughly as they did on Saturday to prove that he did accept money from folks who have business partners who lobby? 
 
Check out this Sun-Times column, which seems to hit Obama for his lack of experience when it comes to talking. Says the columnist: "For a politician as eloquent as he is, Barack Obama can display a bit of a tin ear when it comes to talking about foreign policy and terrorism. It's not that what he says is necessarily wrong, it's just that the way he says it hits the wrong note."

Bloomberg's Al Hunt says the rest of the world is siding with Obama regarding the Clinton-Obama dust-up over meeting with world leaders. "How the issue will play in the American presidential election remains uncertain. How the rest of the world is reacting is not. Obama wins."

Could any other Democrat get "hundreds" to show up at a rally in Utah? Utah Democratic Party Chairman Wayne Holland said the donors couldn't get enough of Obama. "It took a good half-hour just getting him 50 yards from the backyard podium to the living room to meet with public officials," he said. "Usually this is a group that's not star-struck."

We've noticed an uptick in the number of times Obama campaign folks have started to talk up their electability traits, particularly in southern states where the campaign claims Obama can put them in play because of increased African-American turnout. Realistically, though, outside of Mississippi, what other state could see enough of an increase in black turnout to put the state in play? And why couldn't a Bill Clinton be of similar help to Hillary Clinton? Isn't there another electability play the Obama folks should be making rather than one based on race for, maybe, one state in the South? Isn't his pitch about independents, not race?

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Comments

Hillary will be our first female president-a democrat! Go hillary!!
The analogy on the Lobyist money is not completely accurate.  people have to state where they work when they contribute.  If I state that I work at a law firm even though I am a secretary or that I work at a insurance company and i am an analyst does that make me a lobbyist.  Because I work in an industry or the President of a company am I a Federal lobbyist.  Everyone works for SOMEONE.  By this analogy no one should be allowed to contribute.  People have to certify that they are not lobbyist.  They refuse to knowingly take money from people who are Federal Lobbyist and it is their job to try an influence legislation.  But these people know this.  Once again trying to cover up for Hillary or blur the lines as they have done with her war vote.

By the way its naive of her to say that 'lobbyist don't try to sway or impact legislation and that is not why they are giving to her"  That is exactly what they hope to do.
Cheerful Boos my rear end. There is no such animal.ou either cheer or you boo. Barry Bonds is got a lot of love in LA and SD this weekend then with all that cheerful booing.

Mrs. Bill is the darling of the press and salon is her chief wallpaper, but it will not help in the end. Her machine will make sure she is the nominee, but it is a loser for the dems. The reps will turn out to beat her and all the lefties will stay home and not vote.
Nothing will be more exciting for the republicans than Hillary in the general. They know it and that is why the went all out for the candidate they don't want. I mean Barack Obama.

Obama rocks. See why @ www.barackobama.com
Guys: you see people do not react much to this sumary. This simply mean you did not make a good point. You guys got paid to write this  thing. Make a little bit effort. Come on.
Hillary is a fraud just like her husband Slick Willy and has to much negative baggage to be elected President.
The sad empty shell of Hillery Cinton is starting to show cracks. Now, how can Bill and his past adminstration be a help to her, when its record is not so hot? The gays aren't happy, the blacks have Obama, the anti-war folks have her voting record, and most of America, except for bb(meds again?), see her for the bitter empty person she is. All this leads to Edwards, or Obama against the Republican candidate. Sound like a coin toss again. Hope you Dems have taught those Floridians how to use a hole punch...
hillary best get used to the "cheerful boos" because there are many more to come as her true agenda gets revealed, maybe the lobbyists that have bought her out will cheer for her, or the republicans, nobody else would have any reason to, when she gets defeated in the primary giuliani probably will select her as his running mate since they’re ideologies so closely match
I agree with Steve P.  Many Dems (including myself) will not vote for Shrillary if she is the nominee.  
I was struck by Hillary Clinton's totally unbelievable claim she would not be swayed by the lobbyists who support her.  Does she really think we are that stupid?  It certainly shows her arrogance at a time when voters are clamoring to take politics back from the special interests that dominate Washington DC.  I cannot believe that Hillary pulled this one out of her well-rehearsed book of one-liners.  I want a President who respects the American people enough to level with them, not more of what we have suffered over the past two Administrations.
you are wrong --lefties will not stay home-----the republicans will have to fight to win this election----and right now Bush has been a drag.
Hillary is the the next president of the Country.
I hope to christ we still have a country to save.
She knows who the enemies are and they are within.

I am confident we will be safer and have more dignity
than potofpus has prevented.
The clintons are just as powerful(if not more at this time) as the Bushes and that is why she will win and republicans are terrified of her. I laugh when they repeat over and over, "I can't wait to see Hillary win the nomination". More lies from the right. They are absolutely petrified of the woman. Can't wait til she becomes president. "The dems will  stay home and not vote if shes nominated". BULL----!!
Susan, Miami  EXACTLY!
I'm hearing from more and more Democrats who say they won't vote for Clinton if nominated. Maybe that would change before November 2008, but right now she seems not only divisive for the nation but even divisive for her own party.

As an independent, I can tell you I've pretty much made up my mind not to vote for her. I think Obama will be the nominee but admittedly I thought Bradley would come closer to catching Gore, too. If she does prove me wrong and win the nomination, I'll take a hard look at the Republican nominee. If I can't vote for him, I'll be looking for which third party on which to waste my vote.
Rather than arguing about how many Democrats would stay home on election day if Clinton is the nominee, let's get back to the topic of the blog.

Have any of the Clinton supporters heard an answer yet to whether she thinks the initial invasion of Iraq was a good or bad idea?

She remains the only candidate from either party who is ambiguous on that one.
Paul, if your not going to vote democratic, then by all means, go waste your vote.
All you dems who say you and other dems won’t vote for Hillary might want to take a look at the polls – all of which show her to have the highest approval ratings amongst dems than all the other dem candidates.  So just who are these dems who hate Hillary – the same ones who voted for Howard Dean and assured us that Snakes on a Plane would be the big hit of 2006?  Get real.  
hillary is no different than the repub candidates, she has already been bought by big business, she refuses to take a firm stance on any issue, what’s her plan to make healthcare accessible? you can ask the pharmaceutical companies what it is since they will be the ones writing her policy for her, hillary has always been part of the wealthy elite and intends to remain part of it, it's time this country included the needs of the less fortunate in policy decisions, hillary is going to do whatever big money wants, we have had enough of that, we need change not more of the rich getting richer at the expense of the wage earner, she is one dem that I could not vote for, all she will do if nominated is get giuliani elected, and this country can't afford that, she offers nothing new
csh chicago / the poll results are hog wash put out by the corporate owned media to try and sway peoples opinions, nothing more, wake up
If the lefties are dumb enough to nominate the socialist Senator Clinton the White House will remain in Republican hands. Her nomination will galvanize the Republican faithful.
LISTEN ALL UNHAPPY WOMEN OR SORE LOSERS: It appears HRC biggest clout is one of the following. Single women >30 yrs who never gets to date, unhappy divorced women, a pack in the GLT community, the "much respected" DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT (aged>50) and the lobbying parties (mainly the BIG OIL/ PHARMA/  INDIAN SOFTWARE giants). Her remarkable experience (pls.. read as ignorant wife who could never tame frisky Bill) as 1st lady is all she has besides few letters revealing her frustration as a teenager. She was very WISE when she READ IN DEPTH the NIE before the war and then saw ALL THE EVIDENCE to VOTE FOR it. Now that she is more wiser seeing people hate her for that, she changed the view just recently cos BO started to steal her "RIGHTFUL" popularity. The truth is she does not have the BALLS (no pun intended) to do what is right while BO does (no wonder he asked Blacks to stand up and get theri act rather than languishing in welfare money and drugs an hip-hop). She will do anything that she can to appear fine. She sways with the wind but now we must be determined to see that she is GONE WITH THE WIND. As for EDDY.. poor-rich boy. What can he do.. he waited for 4 yrs thinking he had a chance. Did not see HRC and least of all BO. Now that most of PAC is with HRC, he had to go to his good old TRIAL LAWYERS. Listen up folks.. health system is going to crash here. He is so much with trial lawyers. Once universal healthcare is up, docs will close office in 5-10 years. Its a guarantee. Unless there is whole reform in trail lawyers. SICKO may be true to some extent but it is most important to know that none of those countries with NHS have lawyers breathing down their throat dictating things. Thats why it works. It wont succeed here unless there is a radical change in that. I am a physician and thats why I say it. I have worked for many years in a nationalized health care outisde the US an now works here. TRUST me on this atleast. Now whats left for BARRY BO is just the HOPE and he did good. He did what true democracy is. Went to the people and they gave the money. It is only right that ppl should rise and send him into the OVAL office. Give the commoner his transparency and rightful pursuit of happiness. This country was built on principles. I dont agree with BO on abortion and seperation of church and state. I do strongly advocate all the same rights for all people including the GLT but marriage is sacred and let it be for man and woman. take everything else. God bless US.
Whatever Doc.  You appear to know all about unhappy women and sore loosers.
The Clintons are part of the "enemies within."  Wake up.
Paul Miller a vote is a terrible thing to waste.
So unamerican and unpatriotic, I'm sure Obama would not approve. tsk tsk
MK,What a ridiculous statement. You are waaay off saying they are no different- Bush and the Clintons despise each other. They are at opposite ends of the political pole and you know it. Nice try though. And Bush republican(barely 30%), its the dems that are already galvanized-you're dreaming. Hillary is going to kick ass.
Susan, Miami / I believe I stated there isn't any difference between hillary and giuliani, what's the difference between them? I believe it was an accurate statement, if you know of any differences please do tell
You're right, Susan. And since Clinton can't win the general election, I'd suggest no one waste their vote on her during the primaries.
Susan, What has Hillary Clinton done to deserve the post of President Of the United States?

Name the great things she did (besides housework) that she did as First lady.

Name the greatest things she has done as the Wife of Bill Clinton.

Name the greatest things she has done as a Senator from New York.

Why would Hillary Clinton make a great president?

There is your homework, take 14 months to decide and get back to me.
Seems like the more I learn about the differences between Senator Obama and the other candidates the more I like him. I think it's ironic the the big dust up that was made by the business as usual Repub and Dem insiders and their silent (at least we wish) partner the media has really crystalize the differences between Senator Obama's positions and their nursery rhyme style of leadership. It's truely amazing.
the reason hillary got away with blurring the lines on Iraq is because of willing journalists to let her have a free pass.  I have not seen much critical looks at her while they have been staging a swiftboat style tactics on Obama.
Like his speech last week.  It was an incredible and thoughtful and amazing speech and yet, it was spun to look like the Senator wanted to invade Pakistan.  Shame on the press for being so irresponsible.
And they always spin it for Hillary.  Many of us online wondered how the media would spin the hisses and the fact that Hillary lost the debate on Saturday and of course we were not disappointed.  You guys managed to make it seem she was the winner.
Just like tomorrow's debate.  Why watch the post debate.  Regardless the outcome or what happens, you guys already have your pro Hillary spinning in place and the storyline will be to cheerlead for Hillary.
Until there is fair coverage, Hillary quits getting free passes (and with GE being one of her biggest donors I don't think that will happen), and Obama is presented in a fair light, we will keep seeing things go Hillary's way.
Obama/Clinton are no better than Bush. Why can't we democrats come up with better candidates? These two are just a couple of sell-outs.  Will say anything to anyone for vote.
Hitlery is pro-war. She voted for our foolish, illegal assault on Iraq. She says she likes the idea of torture, as well.Obama is Dr. Strangelove. Is anyone still crazy enough to give money to Pretty Boy Edwards after we found out he spends it on $400 haircuts? (He also voted to commit crimes in Iraq.) Ron Paul is the only obvious primary (and general election) choice.
Regardless of Ron Fournier previous political reporting (clearly not political analysis), or tenure - he NOW has every appearance of a Republican shill or at the very least an anti-Clinton reporter where his bias gleems more like an opinion columnist instead of a fair and accurate reporting.

Who is he trying to kid anyway??


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