First thoughts
Posted: Tuesday, August 07, 2007 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Da Dems: In the words of Brent Musberger (oh how it cringes some of us to quote him), "YOU'LL BE LOOKIN' LIVE, From Soldier Field in Chicago..." -- home of Da Bears -- where the Democratic presidential candidates participate tonight in the first non-Mike Gravel debate, er AFL-CIO forum, moderated by MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann, which airs on MSNBC beginning at 7:00 pm ET. While the last Democratic debate took place just two weeks ago, much has happened since then, including the Minnesota bridge collapse; the Clinton-Obama spat over talking with world leaders; Obama’s remarks on Pakistan and his later comment on the use of nuclear weapons there; Edwards’ challenge to his rivals not to take lobbyist money; and Clinton’s defense of lobbyists. So who will be the aggressor tonight? All signs point to Edwards being that guy, since labor is more important to his primary campaign than either of the two Dem front-runners. Will Obama be as aggressive or will he want to keep a lower profile tonight, hoping Edwards does his dirty work? Fasten your seatbelts.
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VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on tonight's Democratic forum in Chicago.
*** In A League Of Her Own: Just in time for tonight’s forum, a new USA Today/Gallup poll has Clinton with a commanding lead over Obama and Edwards (48%-26%-12%). Clinton’s 22-point advantage over Obama, in fact, is nearly double her lead from three weeks ago -- before the two Democrats began trading barbs over foreign policy. Now we know why the Clinton and Obama camps traded memos yesterday over the significance of the national polls: Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn penned a missive touting her lead in those polls, while Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded by dismissing them, pointing instead to Obama's relative strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. Speaking of Penn, could he come up as a subject at the AFL forum? Today’s Los Angeles Times quotes leading labor officials who aren’t too pleased that the PR firm he heads has represented anti-union companies. Of course, Clinton's more difficult defense tonight may not be Penn, but rather her husband's record on trade. Remember, of all the Democratic interest groups, the one group where Bill Clinton isn't necessarily an asset is labor.
*** Is Obama In Trouble? Whatever any of us thought about whether he was getting comfortable going toe-to-toe with Clinton, there's plenty of evidence that Clinton is the candidate with momentum, at least nationally. Look for Clinton supporters to argue that the dust-up on foreign affairs has hurt Obama nationally, particularly in the area of electability. Also, don't miss the Quad Cities coverage of Obama today -- it indicates he's still being put on the defensive regarding his Pakistan-terrorism speech, at least with Iowans. By the way, why did the Obama campaign allow the perception to linger that he was somehow sending troops into Pakistan? It isn't what he said, but it is the perception and the Quad Cities paper notes it. Contrast how slowly the campaign has put this "he'll invade Pakistan" storyline away with how quickly they beat back the "Obama's a Muslim" chatter. Put it this way: Obama's had better press days, and today's not one of them. By the way, why does the chattering class give Romney more of a pass for his poor national poll numbers than Obama or Edwards? That USA Today/Gallup survey has him in fourth at 8%, behind Giuliani at 33%, Fred Thompson at 21%, and McCain at 16%.
*** Wearing the Union Label: No interest group worked harder to elect a Democrat in the last two presidential elections than organized labor, even if it eventually came up short in these contests. And perhaps no interest group has more to gain from placing a Democrat in the White House in January 2009 -- especially after the Bush Administration’s appointments to the National Labor Relations Board and stringent reporting requirements Yet it’s unclear how big labor’s role will be in the Democratic primaries. Back in 2003-4, Gephardt and Dean won most of the big union endorsements, and we know how those campaigns fared. It’s unlikely the AFL-CIO will end up endorsing a candidate (which requires support from two-thirds of affiliated unions), meaning that the individual unions will be free to make their own endorsements.
*** On The Trail: Before the AFL forum, Clinton delivers a policy address on home ownership from Derry, NH; Obama holds a rally at Soldier Field; and Richardson, in Iowa, becomes the latest Democratic candidate to unveil his health-care plan. Also, with just a few days until the Ames straw poll, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Hunter are all in Iowa. And McCain is in Michigan. By the way, what will be the tailgating beverage of choice tonight at Soldier Field: Old Style or Pabst?
*** And It’s Super Tuesday! For more on these events -- and especially tonight’s forum -- tune into another installment of MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage. Also, Dodd appears on MSNBC’s Hardball’s preview of the forum beginning at 5:00 pm ET.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 4 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 27 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 74 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 91 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 102 days
Countdown to Iowa: 159 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 181 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 455 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 532 days