First thoughts

Posted: Tuesday, August 07, 2007 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Da Dems: In the words of Brent Musberger (oh how it cringes some of us to quote him), "YOU'LL BE LOOKIN' LIVE, From Soldier Field in Chicago..." -- home of Da Bears -- where the Democratic presidential candidates participate tonight in the first non-Mike Gravel debate, er AFL-CIO forum, moderated by MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann, which airs on MSNBC beginning at 7:00 pm ET. While the last Democratic debate took place just two weeks ago, much has happened since then, including the Minnesota bridge collapse; the Clinton-Obama spat over talking with world leaders; Obama’s remarks on Pakistan and his later comment on the use of nuclear weapons there; Edwards’ challenge to his rivals not to take lobbyist money; and Clinton’s defense of lobbyists. So who will be the aggressor tonight? All signs point to Edwards being that guy, since labor is more important to his primary campaign than either of the two Dem front-runners. Will Obama be as aggressive or will he want to keep a lower profile tonight, hoping Edwards does his dirty work? Fasten your seatbelts.

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on tonight's Democratic forum in Chicago.

*** In A League Of Her Own: Just in time for tonight’s forum, a new USA Today/Gallup poll has Clinton with a commanding lead over Obama and Edwards (48%-26%-12%). Clinton’s 22-point advantage over Obama, in fact, is nearly double her lead from three weeks ago -- before the two Democrats began trading barbs over foreign policy. Now we know why the Clinton and Obama camps traded memos yesterday over the significance of the national polls: Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn penned a missive touting her lead in those polls, while Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded by dismissing them, pointing instead to Obama's relative strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. Speaking of Penn, could he come up as a subject at the AFL forum? Today’s Los Angeles Times quotes leading labor officials who aren’t too pleased that the PR firm he heads has represented anti-union companies. Of course, Clinton's more difficult defense tonight may not be Penn, but rather her husband's record on trade. Remember, of all the Democratic interest groups, the one group where Bill Clinton isn't necessarily an asset is labor.

*** Is Obama In Trouble? Whatever any of us thought about whether he was getting comfortable going toe-to-toe with Clinton, there's plenty of evidence that Clinton is the candidate with momentum, at least nationally. Look for Clinton supporters to argue that the dust-up on foreign affairs has hurt Obama nationally, particularly in the area of electability. Also, don't miss the Quad Cities coverage of Obama today -- it indicates he's still being put on the defensive regarding his Pakistan-terrorism speech, at least with Iowans. By the way, why did the Obama campaign allow the perception to linger that he was somehow sending troops into Pakistan? It isn't what he said, but it is the perception and the Quad Cities paper notes it. Contrast how slowly the campaign has put this "he'll invade Pakistan" storyline away with how quickly they beat back the "Obama's a Muslim" chatter. Put it this way: Obama's had better press days, and today's not one of them. By the way, why does the chattering class give Romney more of a pass for his poor national poll numbers than Obama or Edwards? That USA Today/Gallup survey has him in fourth at 8%, behind Giuliani at 33%, Fred Thompson at 21%, and McCain at 16%.

*** Wearing the Union Label: No interest group worked harder to elect a Democrat in the last two presidential elections than organized labor, even if it eventually came up short in these contests. And perhaps no interest group has more to gain from placing a Democrat in the White House in January 2009 -- especially after the Bush Administration’s appointments to the National Labor Relations Board and stringent reporting requirements Yet it’s unclear how big labor’s role will be in the Democratic primaries. Back in 2003-4, Gephardt and Dean won most of the big union endorsements, and we know how those campaigns fared. It’s unlikely the AFL-CIO will end up endorsing a candidate (which requires support from two-thirds of affiliated unions), meaning that the individual unions will be free to make their own endorsements.

*** On The Trail: Before the AFL forum, Clinton delivers a policy address on home ownership from Derry, NH; Obama holds a rally at Soldier Field; and Richardson, in Iowa, becomes the latest Democratic candidate to unveil his health-care plan. Also, with just a few days until the Ames straw poll, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Hunter are all in Iowa. And McCain is in Michigan. By the way, what will be the tailgating beverage of choice tonight at Soldier Field: Old Style or Pabst?

*** And It’s Super Tuesday! For more on these events -- and especially tonight’s forum -- tune into another installment of MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage. Also, Dodd appears on MSNBC’s Hardball’s preview of the forum beginning at 5:00 pm ET.

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 4 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 27 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 74 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 91 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 102 days
Countdown to Iowa: 159 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 181 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 455 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 532 days

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Comments

Alan in Phx, maybe people will feel good about their 401k plans when the inflation-adjusted value of their stocks catches up to what it was when Bush took office. On an inflation-adjusted basis every major measure of market performance is STILL at a loss during the Bush years. So much for Republicans knowing how to take care of the economy.

John B, Des Moines, IA (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 12:55 PM)

whine whine whine

Man, why do republicans even bother? No way you can convince people that Bush makes a better president than any of the Democrat 08 contenders. Even if my 401K is good, what about everything else? Do you know what use to be even better than my 401K? The reputation of America. I actually loved being a member of the most beloved and honest state in the world. I really miss that.

I also miss not being surrounded by a bunch of wussies. Everyone is so afraid we will get attacked again.....Keep living in fear......What good does it do the average person to be afraid? Are you any more safe because you are afraid? And I thought being a child of the cold war when you thought someone was going to drop a nuke on the country was over the top. Worrying that I or someone I know might actually have the bad luck of experiencing something as out of the blue, not ordinary, and not common as 9/11 is like being worried that your child will have Elephantitis so you don't have any children or being struck by lightning so you never leave your house when it rains. Our government should be prepared, but this is NOT their only responsibility to the American people.

I have really grown tired of it, and I think alot of other people have too. That's why I am voting Democrat. Also, Obama saying that he would bomb terrorists in Pakistan if they were planning to bomb us only makes me like him more. None of that playing golf while the terrorists make plans.

Colleen, Chicago (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 1:00 PM)

All eyes will be on the AFL-CIO Forum tonight because no one candidate has effectively addressed the domestic issues facing this country. The Beer Game/Sound Bite tonight will be drinking on the following terms: Iraq, Withdrawal, and Universal. We will all be drunk before the first commercial break.

Wouldn't it be great if just once we could rally around a strong candidate that we WANT in office and not just vote for the lesser of two evils?

JuJu, North Carolina (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 1:04 PM)

Carrie-from the above story bullets...."In a league of her own" and "Is Obama in trouble". It could have just as easily read "Hillary in trouble with Labor" and Obama up in Iowa". I must admit that I was slow to adopt this Hillary media bias, but I am beginning to believe it more and more everyday.

Al, KS (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 1:09 PM)

Steve: Of course, Pabst can be had in some bars for $2. If Old Style is unavailable for some reason, or north of $3, PBR for $2 is hard to beat.

But yes. If you are in Chicago, and Old Style is present, Old Style shall be consumed.

Tom, Edgewater (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 1:28 PM)

My husband and all of my brothers(3) and dad will all be voting for Hillary and THEY are REAL men Alan. Sorry, you lose. She is the most experienced, she is the toughest(what she went through with Bill) and is still standing which is an amazing feat in my book, and she is very powerful and many republican men are absolutely intimidated and terrified of her. Even more reason to stand by this democrat.

Susan, Miami (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 1:29 PM)

Diane, MK: You have to admit it, Hillary HAS run a better campaign than Edwards or Obama. She's done what she has to do. Edwards and Obama haven't.

They have to come out swinging !! Accentuate the DIFFERENCES !! Clinton supported the war !! and still does !!
Clinton supports NAFTA and 'Free trade' (sic) !! She's in the pocket of the Washington insiders.
They might want ot discuss THAT TONIGHT !!

PS, MK: OBAMA CAN WIN !! Obama/Edwards is our best chance. Edwards/Obama is great, too. But, Obama represents change.

Independent: A big part of the problem is that the MSM is reporting 'the horse race', NOT THE ISSUES !!
The MSM is reporting polls, fluff, cleavage, campaign stunts and assorted nonsense.
Too bad the MSM isn't interested in POLICY DIFFERENCES !!
The media has morphed into the 'info-tainment industry'

Sierra, San Francisco (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 1:46 PM)

I could not agree more with Scott from PA about Senator Biden. He is definitely the candidate with best creditials to be our next President!!! When is the main stream press going to start looking at candidates policies and not just on fundraising capabilities?? If they did this Senator Biden would be leading in the polls by a long shot. I still believe in the end the Senator will gain the support from the majority of undecided voters in IA & NH.

Tom L, Crosswicks NJ (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:02 PM)

Al, KS - I've seen many positive headlines for Obama as well. I guess if you are looking for bias, you will read it into anything.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:10 PM)

Alan - What exactly is a "real job"?

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:11 PM)

curious that jerry would have trouble finding Lone Star beer in Texas

nuanced (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:18 PM)

The poll, conducted August 3-5, surveyed 490 Democratic leaning voters and 405 Republican leaning voters. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Yes my friends according to the MSM 490 people represent the entire Democratic Party.

Ann Memphis, TN (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:20 PM)

I think the media is ignoring the number of people that will refuse to vote for Hilary no matter how qualified or how well she does in the polls that she will ignore once she is president, just like they always do.

People are saying they will not vote for her no matter what in the primary or general. I am an Obama supporter but if she is on any ticket pres or VP I am voting for the other side, for me it's either major change or none at all.

James, MPLS,MN (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:20 PM)

Mrs. Clinton brags about her "work" during her HUSBAND'S administration. I say thanks for killing the rust belt. Examples Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio etc... AFLCIO, Teamsters and UAW remember NAFTA, CAFTA and being on the board of Walmart importing cheap foreign goods. NAFTA and CAFTA overwhelmingly affected cities with large minority populations who worked in the manufacturing sector (Detroit and Cleveland). Check out black male unemployment rate almost 50% in these cities. Look at her actions and not her words. Mr. Clinton was the most unfriendly Dem to unions and she has MARK PENN (union buster) on her staff. Mrs. Clinton actions sure do speak louder than words

Ann Memphis, TN (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:21 PM)

Love all the comments from the haters about how the GOP will destroy Hillary when she gets the nomination – like they destroyed her in her US Senate bid in 2000 or how they destroyed her in her re-election to the senate in 2006? Get real – Hillary and her husband are the only two dems who the GOP has failed to destroy. Hillary is way smarter and stronger than the GOP attack machine.

Two more polls released today (Cook and USA Today / Gallup) both showing Hillary with a 20% plus lead over Obama. Hope the haters don’t choke on those numbers!!

csh, chicago (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:22 PM)

Carrie, the bad ex wife type is the bi***ing complaining all negitive all the time, it is all about the MSM making her out and selling her to be the smartest women in the world. The only one qualifed to do this job. I would venture that you are more qualified to do the job better than her, more genuine.

I know many people also that had to take it more than once, but it is about the overselling of Hillary. My point is that if her name was not Clinton she would be a nobody in some corporation instead of the leading the Dem party.

Some of the smartest people I know never went to college.

Alan in Phx (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:26 PM)

I guess nobody wants to look at the iowa ,nh and sc polls even though they decide the winner . Wonder whos up in those polls . thanks to the media that is in no way bias to this person even thought they all ways spit lies every day about what he is saying . I mean if any one told lies like that in front of there mother they would get their but whooped . its rediculose .These media pundits who lies about what candidates actualy say need to be taken off of tv . And ought to fell stupid on top of disgrace since the polls in those states obviously show that where pepole are focusing on the candidates and what they realy say arnt going for the media spin . so stop the bull and give hillary her money back or stop being racist which ever it is .

ki houston (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:29 PM)

Where do they get these polls? They make no sense what-so-ever! Clinton is, by far, one of the worst politicians I have ever seen! Wake up, people! Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton!? Are you all insane!?

Nathan, WA (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:32 PM)

Jerry..I was working in Austin, Tx last week and had Lone Star every night. Very good beer, first time I had it.

Ollie frenchburg ky (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:36 PM)

Why would real men not vote for Hillary? Real men are not afraid of intelligent and powerful women.

Ollie frenchburg ky (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 2:47 PM)

Amy B - I agree...and I think he is in a good position right now - I'm sick of hearing from Clinton and Obama - Clinton over rehearses "everything" and Obama sounds like he is still reading chapter two of "Politics for Dummies". John Edwards is the real face of "change" and that is who I want to see as our next president of the United States.

Edwards'08, FL (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 3:03 PM)

Susan they will say that, but in the booth you will just not know exactly how they will vote unless they get a paper trail from the touch screen. Men tell their wifes and sisters and daughters things all the time which are not a real truth and Hillary staying with a serial rapist makes her strong I am sorry for all the women in the world.

She is a power hungry phoney who did all she could to destroy the women that came forward. Its about power, she has until this point never been asked hard questions and she still offers no real answers to real problems.

Standing by Bill is not an accomplishment that qualifes you to be president.

Alan in Phx (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 3:04 PM)

Susan: I'm not sure how you consider a wife who stays with a continually unfaithful husband an amazing feat? There are plenty of tough women out there who have left their husbands for similar reasons, and that makes a truly tough person. Unfortunately, Hillary couldn't sever her connection with Slick Willy (and his connections) because her political career would have ended there. Her eyes have been on the presidential prize since she left her cozy big white home. She's been a chameleon in the Senate with every vote being "politically correct" and strategically executed as a presidential candidate's stepping stone. I agree with you that she is experienced, but not the kind this nation needs.
Hillary Clinton does not support the people, while no republican candidate does either. Edward's is a wuss and only appeals to people who want the Federal Government to hold their hand (while the other hand is in their wallet). I haven't researched Obama enough to weigh in on his positions.
Any candidate that is spouting about American change, is lying to your face (with the exception of Ron Paul).
All in all Hillary is both a Republican and Democrat that will reap the benefits of both sides and provide no solutions. She will have the experience however, to convince America otherwise (I don't know if I could come up with any current president that this sounds like?).

SomeonePleaseStopTheHillaryMachine (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 3:11 PM)

Al - I've been slow to come around to the notion that the media is propping up Clinton, too. But coming around I am. Not that its an exhaustive study, but I've looked over the last 50 blog entries here, excluding those for forums/debates. I tallied those I saw as positive and negative to the Democratic candidates. Here's the results:

Clinton; 10 positive, 1 negative
Obama; 6 positive, 6 negative
Edwards; 4 positive, 1 negative

If I had looked at a hundred blog entries, maybe it would be different. I got bored at 50, so I'm not doing that. But based on this unscientific poll with large margin of error, it does seem that Chuck and friends are more positive on Clinton than the others.

Well, that's not fair because Obama is substantive and Clinton isn't, so Obama draws criticism on that substance where Clinton's positions are beyond criticism, unless one is to criticize the very empty nature of them.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 3:18 PM)

Gonzo-Gate it just will not go away.

z (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 5:30 PM)

I agree with all of those who are supporting Barack Obama. And to all those supporting Hillary Clinton, I am utterly confused. The only reason I keep hearing is that she is tough. About what? What are her positions/plans? At least the other candidates have actually put out something. I read somewhere that college educated women are in a majority voting for Senator Obama and those w/o a college education are voting for Senator Clinton, that's worth noting. Is it because the more educated you are, the more likely you will be to actually read their statements/positions in full? Does it also mean that if you aren't educated, you'll simply vote for her because she's a woman and you liked Bill. If so, God help us. People, for God's sake, do you really think the Republicans aren't salivating about Hillary being the nominee. Are the Hillary supporters so awe struck at the thought of the first woman president that they'll let themselves be fooled. Do ya'll think the Republicans don't have the goods on Hillary? Why would they bring them out now? Why do you think they are going after Barack w/ all the misrepresentations of his comments. Ask yourselves...if Pakistan wasn't doing anything to nail the terrorists and there was credible evidence they were planning something.....you wouldn't go after them? That's what Sen. Obama said. Also, why is it naive and inexperienced to talk to other countries about our differences. It's crazy not to. Our current policies have worked real well doing the opposite. Which is what Hillary wants to continue. Another thing that is absolutely crazy is the complaints that Sen. Obama would take nukes off the table. Anyone who thinks we should nuke anyone is completely nuts. All the guys who had anything to do with the creation of the damn things became advocates against them. Please people do not be fooled....I am all for a woman to be President...but not Hillary. Barack will be an awesome President who will choose an excellent team to help him get this country back on track. An actual REAL CHANGE!!! I hope more people think so. This country has already given the Clintons 8 years, and that's plenty. OBAMA '08!!!!!!!!

Steve, Kill Devil Hills, N.C. (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 5:40 PM)

Alan, home ownership may be up but that is temporary as the number of foreclosures is rising at a fast rate. The creative financing and slimeball mortgage companies have taken advantage of millions of people who now face losing those homes. Do you work for the McCain campaign, they seem to have lots of losers there also.

Don in LA (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 6:36 PM)

Don you are so cleaver. Since rates have not gone up much over the last 2 years most of the increase over historical norms in foreclosurs is from investors letting homes go that they could not sell for the inflated prices they needed because they bought at the wrong time.

McCain is an old combover that is not electable.

Alan in Phx (Sent Tuesday, August 07, 2007 7:19 PM)

Obama proves that he is the true Front-Runner.. lol everyone knows that polls are not accurate.....take Kerry's nomination... he was behind like 12 points and won the nomination and Gore was leading in the polls for election and lost...lol....i dont see how polling 1,000 or a little more can represent the whole country.

Mister, Maplewood, nj (Sent Wednesday, August 08, 2007 11:34 AM)

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