First thoughts
Posted: Thursday, August 09, 2007 9:13 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Calendar Confusion: Later this morning, the South Carolina GOP will announce -- in New Hampshire, of all places -- its primary date, and the speculation is that it will be for Saturday, January 19, which could trigger a series of moves that would move up the early nominating contests. But this might not be the final date: A South Carolina source tells us that they don't want their primary falling more than approximately 10 days after New Hampshire.
VIDEO: NBC Politics Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the leapfrogging primary dates, the Iowa straw poll and the McCain campaign.
***
The Domino Effect: Speaking of New Hampshire, the power to set the primary date lies, of course, with Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who is supposed to show up at the South Carolina presser in Concord, NH. Gardner usually guards his non-partisan status, so it will be a big deal if he does indeed come. Contrary to the DNC's wishes, there is no official date for the New Hampshire primary. The DNC wants it on January 22, three days after Nevada's caucuses. But with South Carolina now saying it’ll be on January 19, it means Gardner will have to be no later than January 12 in order to follow state law. And what would that trigger? A move by Iowa. Again, the DNC has asked Iowa to do January 14 -- but would Iowa allow New Hampshire to go first? Everything we hear out of Iowa indicates the state does not want to move its January 14 date. But January 7 has to be looking better every day, right?
*** Even More Confusion: By the way, the announcement by South Carolina's GOP doesn't mean the South Carolina Dems will also move. In fact, SC Democratic Party chairwoman Carol Fowler tells First Read that due to the specter of DNC penalties, her state isn’t considering moving up. But with Florida crashing the party on January 29, expect the SC Dems to hint at moving too, despite what they’re saying now. Confused yet? We didn't even get into the Michigan factor or whether the DNC will sanction Florida's primary, even though the Clinton campaign is pushing hard on Florida's behalf. What does this all mean? That the pieces on the calendar chessboard -- for both campaigns and journalists -- are about to be knocked over. The biggest beneficiaries to all of this uncertainty? Clinton and Giuliani, who are both the best prepared for the February 5 Tsunami Tuesday. In particular, both New York candidates would benefit greatly if Iowa is diluted or even leapfrogged by New Hampshire.
*** Glass House Alert: When you preach purity on lobbyists and PACs, you are going to draw hypocrisy scrutiny from the press. The Boston Globe -- read by many in reform-minded New Hampshire -- does an exhaustive examination of Obama's political fundraising going back to the '90s and finds that he's certainly not had problems raising money from lobbyists and PACs in the past, even as recently as 2004. Also, don't miss the tongue-in-cheek coverage from Nevada's leading political reporter, Jon Ralston, who wonders why Carson City lobbyists are ok to sign up as supporters in Nevada but not D.C. lobbyists?
***
It’s Almost Straw Poll Time: The Iowa State Fair begins today, and most of the GOP presidential candidates who are participating in Saturday’s Ames straw poll will make an appearance there: Brownback, Hunter, and Paul participate in the Des Moines Register’s Soap Box event at the state fair, while Tommy Thompson does a radio interview from the venue. Brownback, Huckabee, and Romney also spend most of their day campaigning throughout the state.
***
“What Happens In Vegas…”: While possible calendar maneuvers could end up diminishing Nevada’s status -- as of now -- as the second contest of 2008. But that isn’t stopping some of the Democratic candidates from visiting the state. Clinton, in Las Vegas before heading to LA, speaks at the National Association of Black Journalists presidential forum, where she will unveil her plan targeted at the 4 million people ages 16-24 who are out of school or out of work. She then attends a rally with culinary workers. On Friday, Obama addresses the black journalists forum and then holds a town hall in Las Vegas.
***
On The Trail: In addition, the Democratic presidential candidates -- minus Biden and Dodd – participate tonight in gay-rights forum in Los Angeles. Elsewhere, Biden continues to make the TV rounds (on Fox & Friends and on NPR); Dodd, in New Hampshire, gives a policy speech on education; Edwards speaks at the Aspen Institute; and McCain holds a town hall meeting in New Hampshire.
*** And A Note: The morning edition of First Read won’t publish tomorrow, but will return bright and early on Monday. But for those who will need their political fix on Friday, don’t worry: We’ll have updates throughout the date on our Web site.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 2 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 25 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 72 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 89 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 100 days
Countdown to Iowa: 157 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 179 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 453 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 530 days
