Tomorrow's GOP scrimmage

Posted: Friday, August 10, 2007 10:19 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Republicans

From NBC's Mark Murray
The best way to think of Saturday's Iowa Republican straw poll is as a preseason football scrimmage. Since no delegates are actually up for grabs, the result won't count in the regular-season standings for the GOP presidential nomination. Also, some of the best players (Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson) aren't competing. But like in an early preseason game, the straw poll will give us a way -- even if it's unscientific -- to gauge the strength of those who are participating.

The competitors are Sam Brownback, John Cox (who hasn't participated in any of the debates so far), Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson. And they all give individual speeches beginning at 1:45 pm ET, per the Iowa Republican Party. However, the ballot will include Giuliani's, McCain's, and Fred Thompson's names on it, even though they're not competing.

Voting lasts from 11:00 am ET to 7:00 pm ET, and here's how the process works: Voters must present a valid Iowa drivers license or other ID. Then they receive one ballot, and each person's thumb will be dipped in indelible purple ink -- a la the voting in Iraq -- to prevent a person voting more than once. And they take their ballot, voting for just one person, and then feed their ballot into a Diebold Optical Scan Machine (Ron Paul supporters have already complained about these controversial machines.) The results will be announced on Saturday at 8:00 pm ET.

An important caveat about the straw poll: It's hardly a scientific poll, since the campaigns entice voters with free entrance fees, free food, and other goodies. As the Washington Post put it earlier this week, [W]hile no one can stage-manage a random telephone poll, it is open season when any voting-age Iowan or Iowa college student with a $35 ticket has a say… Republican presidential candidates looking to score high in the straw poll lure Iowans to Ames with not only free tickets, but also transportation, food and entertainment."

Yet organizers say the straw poll results have predicted what will happen in the following Iowa caucuses. In 1999, for example, George W. Bush finished first the straw poll, followed by Steve Forbes and then Elizabeth Dole. The top-two finishers in the 2000 caucuses: Bush and Forbes.

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Comments

I'm not sure how Thompson can legitimately be labeled a "best player" considering he is not even a candidate at this point. So far all he has done is form an exploratory committee and write a few blogs. If he hasn't joined the game, he can't be a "best player" in it, at least to my way of thinking.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:43 AM)

Rumors have it that the fix is in with the Diebold Company, and Dubya will be named winner of the "Great Iowa Wrestle-Off Straw Poll".

Steve Turner Cedar Falls Iowa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:46 AM)

Good point, Carrie. But given his second-place standing in most national polls, I consider him in that top tier (for now), even if he's not officially in the race yet.

Mark Murray (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:47 AM)

It will be interesting to see where Dr. Paul places in this straw poll, the campaign has only purchased 800 tickets and is not providing buses for transportation. Any votes he gets over the 800 will show true support since that would be Iowa voters paying for their own tickets and transportation to vote for Dr. Paul.

The complaints about the Diebold machines (which have been decertified in several states) are coming from independent groups, not from the campaign itself. A side note: The GOP wants to charge $180,000 for a recount if a campaign wants one.

Larry White Elkview, WV (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:51 AM)

"some of the best players (Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson)"...whew...when Rudy (looks good in drag), John (bomb bomb Iran) & Fred (as seen on TV) are your best players.....you need jerry reminding the voters about Bill's BJ and taking cheap shots at Chelsea. The Republican party looks to be in serious disarray. Thanks GW! go jerri girl!

PJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:52 AM)

"An important caveat about the straw poll: It's hardly a scientific poll, since the campaigns entice voters with free entrance fees, free food, and other goodies." Lets see, you have to pay someone to vote for you ....typical GOP ..... what a joke!

Ricardo in California (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:53 AM)

Watching how slow Fred is in getting into this race he would not qualify as a first responder.Imagine if he was the president----not fast in his head or on his feet----would Jeri be running the government?

HMT-MI (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 10:55 AM)

Purple finger and Diebold Machines-"The One-Eyed One -Horned Flying Purple People Eater"-Sheb Wooley

Still Crazy After All These Years (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:10 AM)

It all seems rather pointless to me...there is no way ANY Republican is going to win the presidency come November (unfortunately)

TSP, New Hampshire (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:12 AM)

Why this thing gets the coverage it does is beyond me, when the Iowa Republican party admits its just a fundraiser.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:12 AM)

Can someone explain to me why this is news? This is worst than an exhibition in that the candidates can actually fix the game buy providing $$ and transportation. What a joke, this is no competition

Karen Young, NY, NY (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:13 AM)

As of Aug 6th, the latest ABC/WP Ames Iowa poll shows Tancredo finishing second. Tancredo was the only candidate to receive first-place votes other than Romney. This was an Iowa poll taken by the 30 Republican Party officials representing all the counties in Iowa as well as the party's Central Committee. There have been a lot of misleading polls that have been thrown out by the media in the past 48 hours, but in politics that's typical hen it comes down to the wire. I'll keep my ear to the ground in Iowa for that's where it will count.

Campbell (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:20 AM)

Can someone explain to me why Fred Thompson is so popular ? He's not done much politically the short time he was in Office, he's been a Lobbyist, and mediocre Actor. Does appearing in several TV shows and Movies qualify you to be a president ?

Is it really all about name recognition ?

Should MSNBC be doing a better job of publicizing more possible candidates ?

John Galt (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:23 AM)

PJ:

->>The Republican party looks to be in serious disarray.

Keep thinking that PJ. Keep thinking that. You, and many others that are thinking this way, are in for a big surprise.

Larry Walters, NV (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:24 AM)

"Can someone explain to me why Fred Thompson is so popular ?" I believe that it simply illustrates how desparate GOPers are. George W has wiped out the GOP for the foreseeable future.

PJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:28 AM)

Half dead Fred is so popular because he is not the other guys and hes not even running! Boy, the repubs are in great shape. Thanks Tick brain.

bb (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:28 AM)

Larry: What's the big surprise? GW decaring marshall law, & cancelling the election? That wouldn't surprise me.

PJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:32 AM)

Perhaps Fred is so popular because he gave to the Libby defense fund and thus supported one of Bush's insiders. Perhaps Fred is the one the President is really supporting. Perhaps Fred will continue the "New World Order" policy.Perhaps Fred is popular because he was a mole for the Nixon administration (Cheney was part of that Presidency). I still think this is the man the President will make sure gets the nomination.The fix is in.

Desmond (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:36 AM)

I have noticed since school is out that there are a lot of 14 year old right wing bloggers about, good for them unfortunately the adult right wingers have never grown past the 14 year old stage themselves..

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:39 AM)

Fred's popular because he's a known quantity on the right- "one of them". Imagine if Rush Limbaugh announced a 2008 candidacy. There'd be a groundswell. Doesn't mean that Rush would have the slightest qualifications to be president.

RG (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:42 AM)

In my opinion, F.T. is the only one who has a chance of winning the rep-pri and the national electorial vote. Popular vote?

The GOP will do well, if only because the top tier dems are pretty ick, and the second tier dems cant raise the greeenbacks to get elected.

AGdem Anchorage, AK (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:43 AM)

John - I like him 'cause he was a badass in the movie FEDS. He played the director of the FBI training academy, and he cracked me up. I'd watch him in movies, but that doesn't mean I want to watch him making the State of the Union address.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:53 AM)

"unfortunately the adult right wingers have never grown past the 14 year old stage themselves.. "...that's because they flunked 8th grade social studies where you learn about the Constitution, checks & balances & the seperation of powers. The great heritage our our great nation.

PJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 11:55 AM)

mikeeg,abdn,was: I have noticed since school is out that there are a lot of 14 year old right wing bloggers about, good for them unfortunately the adult right wingers have never grown past the 14 year old stage themselves

Very true. But we are trying to keep in dumbed down so even you can understand what's going on mike. Sadly, it appears we are still a couple years beyond your intellect.

Republican Forever (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:00 PM)

One thing Republicans still have going for them is democrat stupidity. Democrat's support for Hillary is proof they not only don't mind being lied to, but prefer it.

Dave, Tn (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:01 PM)

For reader's information:

Republican National Debates:
1- MSNBC Broadcast - May 3, 2007 - Simi Valley, California
On line poll: Ron Paul won
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18661804/

2- Fox News Broadcast - May 15, 2007 - Columbia, South Carolina
Phone poll: Ron Paul second place
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,272493,00.html

3- CNN Broadcast - June 5, 2007 - Manchester, New Hampshire
On line poll: Ron Paul won
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/debates/scorecard/gop.debate/results.html

GOP Straw Polls:
Georgetown SC straw poll: Ron Paul second place
http://georgetowngop.blogspot.com/2007/07/fred-thompson-wins-georgetown-county.html

Cob County straw poll: Ron Paul second place
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2007/07/05/a_fourth_of_july_straw_poll_fo.html?cxntfid=blogs_political_insider

Coalition for New Hampshire Taxpayers straw poll: Ron Paul won
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=45339

Finally, Ron Paul just won by landslide in the last Sunday's ABC national and live GOP Debate online poll:

"Now that the debate's over, it's time to consider the winners and losers. Who do you think won the Republican debate?

Ron Paul 41,264
Mitt Romney 4,605
Nobody won. I'm voting Democratic. 3,557
Rudy Giuliani 3,249
Nobody. I'm waiting for Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich to enter the race. 2,967
Mike Huckabee 2,724
Sam Brownback 1,050
Tom Tancredo 776
Tommy Thompson 762
John McCain 746
Duncan Hunter 429
Total Vote: 62,129
Not a scientific survey."

Downloaded from ABC site: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Decision2008/popup?id=3436820&POLL299=1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Please, check other information yourself searching "Ron Paul" in www.youtube.com.

Although, his numbers are low in "scientific" polls and media, which are artificially omitting him, he is definitely a front runner and the only electable GOP candidate.

All other GOP candidates are not being able to connect to the general population at all, which will be essential in the comming general election against the Democrat.

Which one do you believe? A spontaneus online and some straw poll or "scientific" polls paid by some customer interested in the outcome of the results?

Ichiro Aoki, San Clemente, CA (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:09 PM)

Who cares?

Bush Republican (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:19 PM)

Ichiro,Ah yea but Ron Paul doesnt have a chance in hell of winning. But you go ahead and vote for him on election day if your a repub or even independent.

G (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:27 PM)

Mark my words, George Bush will hand the keys to the Whitehouse to Hillary. His incompetance has all but destroyed the once great Republican party. With leaders like George Bush in office the Democrats don't even need to lift a finger to destroy the Republican party.

Chris, Rural Hall, NC (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:30 PM)

Thanks Ichiro, Ron Paul does indeed look to be very popular with the people. However his statement early on that 9/11 was a direct result of our own foreign policy (which I agree with) I'm afraid killed his chances with "the powers that be". Sad state of affairs.

PJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:32 PM)

I'm a registered Democrat, and I have to say that I really like Ron Paul. He is not a neoconservative. I happen to be pro-choice, but I am also pro-American, and if I have to pick my battles I would have to support the Constitution of United States above all other issues.

KD, Hamilton, New Jersey (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:44 PM)

repub forever, hey good 14 year old come back, when does your school start?

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 12:53 PM)

I see the US has dropped out of the international math and science competition not suprising after reading some of the 14 year old right wing bloggers, maybe they should be studying instead of copying bush/cheney/rove/rush.

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 1:02 PM)

Nothing the repub's do will help them win the election. Nothing! Bush has made that possible. NO one wants another 4 yrs of this crap, so a straw poll is just another way for the Repub's to try and make some money.

Teri B Roseville, CA (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 1:06 PM)

Fred Thompson is again showing how lazy and skiddish he is by not putting himself on the official presidential election list. If he was truly the tough gut they all think he is he would register and get on with it. He wants to have his cake and eat it too. Watch from the sidelines to see how he does unofficially then if it looks like he can't win then he can say I was never really running anyway.
Laziest senator in the history or the U.S.

Christopher, Madison WI (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 1:25 PM)

You know what all of those Ron Paul polls have in common? They're all internet polls. Ron Paul has a very loyal following on the internet, but that's it.

Wade McEntarfer (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 1:33 PM)

Oh, school has already started mike. You lefties will be taught some lessons over the next year that you won't soon forget.

Republican Forever (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 1:48 PM)

It is truly amazing how narrow minded the people who enter these blogs are. Does anyone think for themselves anymore. Are you all ready for checkpoint, curfews and federal country clubs...? You are all in debt and when this economy crashes you are all going to be slaves to the debt that you have incurred. No matter who gets into office we are all going to suffer! It truly makes me sick listening to a bunch of parrots mimicing what they heard from Rush Limbaugh, CNN, Fox News, CNBC, MSNBC, ect. They are all owned by the very people who can't wait to send you all down the river and send their minions out to pick your bones! WAKE UP!!!

Concerned Citizen (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 1:51 PM)

KD, well said. The Constitution is what I believe in also. It is tragic that whenever a crisis arrives it is the first thing that suffers. I would like to remind people it was primarily written by a slaveowner who disliked slavery, an intellectual who had to dumb down some of the language to appeal to other slave-owning Southerners (and many times admitted when he made mistakes), and a man who, as President, doubled the land-mass size of the US despite being told he was spending way too much money for it. He was forward thing Deist (not a Christian) who feared organized religion, a military removed from civilian checks and balances, and an Imperial presidency. It is too bad the same intelligence and quality does not exist in most of people running for office today.

Thomas Jefferson was a visionary but also a man of his times. George Bush claims to be a visionary but he's surrounded himself with those who live in the past and/or who cliam to envision a new world order which will return democracy to the dark ages.

Robert Catalano, Salem, OR (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:13 PM)

What are you gonna do Republican forever, take us to your favorite gay male escort and have us spanked, while you watch- then you'll make us go to your church and pray to be forgiven?

bb (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:14 PM)

This is the difference between:

Informed Democracts,
Informed Republicans,
and regular zombie Americans.

The above Informed group of people recognise that our foreign policy is so bad that when we go outside of the US we get attacked verbaly by the locals for our politicians wrongdoings. Even though it's not the peoples fault per say.

Without changing that first and then worrying about healthcare and what not we are not going to be peacefull as a nation. We need to stop going into other people houses and telling them to bend over and take it. It's not our place to do.

All you other "idiot" Americans and I am ashamed to say so since I am an American myself need to wake up and recognise that even though you want to remain an "idiot" in your own coutry for the next 20 years without a care about foreigners, there are other people in this world that like to travel and live just like you do. The least you can do is consider what consequences our political wars have towards these people.

Iraq is a great example as we have created a shithole over there with our bad foreign policy and incompeted congress.

WAKE UP AMERICA.

James Doew. New Jersey, NJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:20 PM)

Concerned Citizen, too many special interest groups behind the race.I don't listen to talking heads. I do, however, watch the birds in my back yard.They are a reliable forecast as to when the storm is a brewin'.

Desmond (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:20 PM)

Ron Paul. Ron Paul. Ron Paul.

Jwerner (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:20 PM)

all 14 year olds will need written parental permission before I will respond to their blogs.

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:23 PM)

It appears to me that Mitt Romney is the smartest and most capable out of all the Presidential Candidates but because he is a Mormon he is being treated like a Minority Candidate. If a Democrate was at all palatable on social issues (Hillary "I'll get rid of don't ask don't tell) the Democrates would have a lock on the Presidency but as its stands its a peculiar scene at the moment.

Becktemba, Orange County, CA (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:27 PM)

I certainly believe that it is ridiculous to have a person on the Straw Poll ballot who has not even announced him candidacy. Who am I referring to? Fred Thompson, of course-the lazy, no-good former Senator from Tennessee. However, Governor Romney will undoubtedly win the Straw Poll despite Thompson. Also, it is certainly a shame that Giuliani nor McCain have chosen to participate. This surely means that their chances of winning the Iowa caucuses have dwindled.

C. I., Columbia, SC (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:31 PM)

Ichiro - It's not scientific for a reason. You didn't even have to WATCH the debate to vote. (I wonder if 60,000 people even DID watch that debate...) Also, does it register if you voted already? I know some online polling sites don't, and you can answer the same question over and over and over again.

No offense. I like Ron Paul well enough, but unless he gets more people OFF the internet and ON the ground for him, raising money, he's going nowhere.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:37 PM)

To Concerned Citizen: You make some very good points, you're absolutely correct. But I'm gonna stick up for EVERYBODY here, left, right, whatever....I'm proud of em all...because they CARE. They are trying...to voice what they feel. So many people I see around me, at work, can't be bothered. They don't pay any attention, or have much of an opinion. Ignorance is bliss mentality, apathetic. My hat's off to everyone here for CARING.

PJ (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:51 PM)

"Romney Leadership Team Member Overseeing Straw Poll
I could certainly write volumes about this, but I think the facts paint the picture themselves.

The Iowa GOP is facing possible suit over their use of the same Diebold machines that were just de-certified. Story here.

They are claiming of course, that there is nothing to worry about since the voting procedure will be conducted with the assistance and oversight of the Story County Auditor's Office. Story here.

If we look here we see the Story County Auditor is Mary Mosiman.

Mary Mosiman also happens to be on Mitt Romney's "Romney for President Leadership Team".

So there you have it, the Story County Auditor who will take part in overseeing the voting on the questionable machines is part of a team dedicated to "help Governor Romney share his vision for America".

That's a blatant conflict of interest and this is something we cannot ignore.

PS. It's also worth noting that according to this article, Romney's Commonwealth PAC gave State Auditor David A. Vaudt $1,000 in 2004."

Richard, Austin, TX (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:58 PM)

To those who say Thompson was lazy, etc., I would point out that

A) No-one has traditionally declared this early for past primaries.

but more importantly,

B) The fact that his name is on very little legislation is why I support him! The last thing this country needs in most cases is more laws. How about enforcing some of the ones we have on the books and shipping illegals back to Mexico?

Dan Toler, Philadelphia, PA (Sent Friday, August 10, 2007 2:58 PM)

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