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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Obama gets more profiles

Posted: Monday, August 13, 2007 9:09 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

Last week was the GOP's turn to dominate Iowa. This week, it's the Democrats. Both Edwards and Obama have bus trips that will involve some state fair time.

CLINTON: The AP's most experienced Clinton reporter, Ron Fournier, has a story that questions Hillary Clinton's electability -- not for herself, but for Democrats down the ballot. "In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races… The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates.”

The Boston Globe examines Clinton's efforts over the years to build her national security resume. "Clinton has taken extraordinary pains, not only on the campaign trail but in her years in the US Senate, to position herself as the candidate who would be the strongest commander in chief, even as she has infuriated some Democrats who believe her desire to appear tough made her slow to criticize the Iraq war."

The New York Times reports that Clinton's first quarter fundraising take is actually lower than originally reported -- low enough that she ended up even with Obama on total money raised. Of course, Obama outraised her in primary money in the first quarter, but many press reports at the time included Clinton's overall total (which included approximately $6 million in general election money), which was more than Obama's.

It’s not Oprah, but it’s also not bad… Former Lakers’ star Magic Johnson will host a Sept. 14th fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton. Also in attendance will Quincy Jones, Motown founder Berry Gordy, and former Motown Chairman Clarence Avant.

DODD: Fresh from taking shots at Obama during last week's AFL-CIO debate, Dodd goes after Clinton. Here's a direct quote in today's New York Sun on Clinton and health care. “‘So when people say I'm ready to lead, fine, so tell me how you have. And I cite, you know, I know my colleague from New York says this all the time, and I say this respectfully, that she “bears the scars” from what happened on the health care thing,’ Mr. Dodd said. ‘Political scars are one thing. But the scars from mismanaging an issue that people have had to pay [for] because they haven't had any health insurance or coverage for the past 15 years is a lot more serious in many ways. So when you're talking about how that happened, it happened because it was mismanaged.’”

And for good measure, here's another Dodd shot at Obama: “‘When you're reading off a teleprompter at a speech, in front of a distinguished audience, and you pose a hypothetical problem and propose a hypothetical solution to it, which suggests the unilateral action into another country that is a nuclear power, the alternative of which is a jihadist, fundamentalist state with nuclear weapons, that's irresponsible,’ Mr. Dodd said. ‘Who's advising him, first of all? But you ought to have enough sense, beyond a briefing book knowledge of this thing, you don't say those kind of things.’”

EDWARDS: We've said it before, we'll say it again: Nothing gets the media going like hypocrisy. Politico's Ben Smith may have uncovered some in reporting that News Corp. paid Edwards' daughter and chief political aide, Jonathan Prince, money for the most recent Edwards book. This is in addition to the money the campaign already disclosed and already said went to charity.

OBAMA: The Washington Post has an in-depth profile of Obama, and it focuses on his meteoric rise. Here's an interesting nugget about his ambition: "And then there's ambition -- a given in any presidential candidate, but worth pointing out because Obama works hard to dispel the image of having sought his superstar status. ‘It's not about me, it's about you,’ he likes to tell his crowds. But according to those who know him, he has been talking about the presidency for more than a decade. ‘It was clear to me from the day I met him that he was thinking about politics,’ says Harvard Law School classmate Christine Spurell.” 

Obama will be on the cover of the September GQ -- in fact, it's the magazine's first political cover since '92, when Clinton and Gore shared the honor. Ryan Lizza, now of the New Yorker, pens the piece. From the piece's subhead: "We already know that Barack Obama has what it takes -- the crowd-pleasing charisma, the outsize ambition, the audacity of hope -- to be a serious candidate for president. But does he have all the rest -- the nerve, the political spine, and the will to do the (sometimes dirty) work it takes to get to the White House? That is the question. A journey with the new star of the Democratic Party."

Some interesting excerpts (the piece won't be on GQ's web site until 10:00 am today): "One way to describe Obama is that underneath the inspirational leader who wants to change politics -- and upon whom desperate Democrats, Independents, and not a few Republicans are projecting their hopes -- is an ambitious, prickly, and occasionally ruthless politician. But underneath that guy is another one, an Obama who’s keenly aware that presidential politics is about timing, and that at this extremely low moment in American political life, there is a need for someone -- and he firmly believes that someone is him -- to lift up the nation in a way no politician has in nearly half a century.”

“One of the riddles of the Obama campaign is, to what extent does a candidate who preaches a gospel of changing politics need to run a revolutionarily different kind of campaign? The question has gnawed at Obama since he entered the race. At his very first press conference as a candidate, a reporter asked Obama why he was employing a team of opposition researchers -- aides who spend their days and nights digging up dirt on other candidates and often leaking that info, ‘anonymously,’ to the media.”

More from Lizza after a June speech: "I realize I have never witnessed a politician so genuinely trying to fuse idealism and pragmatism. The theme runs through almost everything he says. ‘But the flip side of it is,’ he explains, hinting at what divides him and Hillary, ‘if it’s all tactics and all politics, and there’s not the idealism, if it’s not touched by that sense of movement, then you actually never bring about change. Then it’s just pure transactions between powerful interests in Washington.’”

RICHARDSON: The Washington Post's Capehart, who was one of the questioners at last weeks Human Rights Campaign forum, chastises Bill "I'm not a scientist" Richardson for his answer about whether being gay is biological or a choice. Left unsaid in the column was the fact that this was yet ANOTHER case where Richardson showed the potential to melt under the glare of the spotlight. A friend of "First Read" wondered to us over the weekend: "Bill Richardson has winged it all his life and gotten away with it; but you can't wing it when running for president."

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Comments

Her electability?  Duh, everybody has questioned that for some time!  The stories coming out in the papers and TV are showing more and more that the democrats are going to have to fight in the mud if Hillary is going to lead them in the general election.
More BS from the conservative run media. Hillary will be our next president and the repubs cannot stand another Clinton getting in. Too bad boys and girls.
Just go to ..hillaryclinton.com   for further information. It's free and fun !
Gotta love them democrats, yes I donated the money to charity.  Oh yeah, forgot to mention that my daughter got a little something on the side.  OOOPS!  I figured it would be Hillary or Edwards that got nailed at the LOGO debate, the last person I figured was Richardson.  Some good advice for you liberals, if you don't know enough about the subject, don't go to the debate.  Of course, why this is becoming an issue, I don't know and could care less about.  Chris Dodd, Chasing the ball down the sewer hole will get you no where in life my friend, better just take your ball and go home.
It would almost be worth it (almost) to see Obama elected, and watch how far the bitter evil Clinton's would go to do their worst to undermine him. Bet the foreign speaking tours would double. I'm sure it would pale in comparison to what the Clintons will do if a Republican wins. If Obama wins the Clintons wouldn't have all the democrats helping. Yeah would be interesting to watch, but still not worth the risk in my opinion :-)
Why is the MSM suddenly starting to report the correct facts about Mrs. Clinton? Interesting.
Clinton and Obama have ZERO chance of winning next fall.  A Karl Rove/Rush Limbaugh ticket could run on the Republican side, and beat these bozos in a landslide.  Why are the Democrats putting up such a weak field of candidates?
Jerry you're boring! YAWN!
Not only are internal polls showing how much a problem her favorability ratings are, but early primary states, the only states that really matter at this time of year, are showing her struggling to stay on top.  Her chance of being elected is much shakier than most people realize.
Jerry you are the new  TURD BLOSSOM.....

Any stupid idiot that voted for Bush can just shut up now. It is evident you know nothing, so do not attempt to critique any candidate. EVER!
7000 Iraq refugees on their Way to CORPUS CHRISTIE.
Would be nice for Hillary to build on her national security resume.  Considering she is in the basement when it comes to national security, there is no other way to go but up!
to the people that can't or refuse to distiguish the difference between a bribe (money from lobbyist)like all the candidates except edwards take, or pay (money you recieve for goods or services rendered)which is the money edwards recieved on the book deal that has edwards opponets stirred up, I hope you all get the candidate you deserve
Nik you know this to be true because????
Yes, I've been to Hillary's web sit and it is fun and exciting. hillaryclinton.com
I wonder how all the Democratic candidates for president who currently serve in the Senate voted when that law Biden discussed - the one about us targeting bin Laden in Pakistan - came up on the Senate floor?

Domenico, that would be an interesting thing to uncover and post here.
According to a pollster this weekend on CSpan, the key states for Clinton in the general are going to be Arkansas & Florida (no mention of Ohio). She's leading in Florida. He more or less implied that if she wins these states, she's our next President.
http://bobgeiger.blogspot.com/2007/03/kerry-dodd-and-biden-pressure-pakistan.html

This story is interesting in that it includes a common approach by a former presidential candidate and two current presidential candidates for addressing safe havens in Pakistan.
Obama is really the only person I would consider voting for.  Its amazing that everyone wants to be down on him for offering hope.  Keep your hopeless world view with just business as usual, and let the rest of us move on to something better.
No more Clintons or Bushies please!! Here’s a thought, it is time for someone who actually has the American People’s interest at heart to be elected into the highest office in the land. It is time for someone with a brain to implement a new foreign policy that uses common sense and is not subservient to corporate interests.
Jerry-
"In several national polls and in Iowa, the first caucus state, she is the Democrat who most likely primary voters say is the "strongest leader," a term generally seen as encompassing defense know-how. And a New York Times/CBS News poll of Republicans as well as Democrats last month found that 58 percent of respondents thought it was somewhat or very likely that she would be an effective commander in chief."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/08/12/tough_talk_drives_clinton_effort/

"When asked to choose among the leading Presidential candidates, 28% of American adults said that they would trust New York Senator Hillary Clinton the most on national security issues. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 20% named former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/who_s_best_on_national_security_28_say_clinton_20_giuliani

You don't know what you're talking  about at all.

Van
I am dissappointed if it is true that there are Democrat-rats who are not getting behind Hillary.  This is not the time for Dems to split their strength.  

Hillary has the experience, relationships and toughness to get something done.  In the end, people will vote for the most effective candidate because popularity is an adjective.

She is more than 20 points ahead of everyone.  She has come up from behind in Iowa in a short period of time.  Everywhere she goes, things turn in her favor quickly.

A person has to be looney-toons not to see that!
I hope thay are on their way, our economy is booming so fast and so furious, we don't have enough housebuilders and shopping center builders in this town, we could 7000 more workers.  H P, Hillary Clinton is being sold in the liberal press as the female George Bush.  Nice to know you are backing Hillary if she is following the George Bush plan.  Keep pushing her girlfriend!
Jerry likes to rant over and over, the same old crap about the Clintons. Thats how much the extreme right wing is so afraid of her. What a hoot! Can't wait til any dem gets in. Jerry will burst into flames!
Nice that a woman like Hillary Clinton who has no experience when it comes to national security is so trusted by Americans.  Must have been taken in new York State only.
Van, why do your posts go so wide? It seems to be the links, but when other people post long links, they wrap around the normal column size.
I just learned that Karl Rove has been using 'Jerry in Corpus Christi' to post here all of the time.  :-)

When I saw this story yesterday about HRC being a negative for congressional races throughout our country, it really made me want to go out and bolster Senator Obama.  Like most DEMs, I will vote for her if she is nominated but I prefer the 'audacity of hope' by Obama.  I want more than what she gives.  I want hope again.  I want to be invigorated.  I want my country's good name back.  I don't see any GOP candidate capable of these, and I believe Senator Obama delivers on all counts.
Steven in AZ,
yes it is time. But do you think the MSM and rich and powerful will allow a shift of power to the working class? It will be business as usual. Not many of the two dozen or so candidates seem very "populist".
How sweet of the media to start going renegade on the Clintons. I bet someone forgot to pay their monthly dues. I always said that the media can side with the Clintons all they want and the pollsters can go on picking their samples from people who definitely support her, she's not going to be President and her internal polling data reveals it.

But let me make this clear:

If HILLARY CLINTON STEALS THIS NOMINATION, I WILL VOTE REPUBLICAN. I hope the Republicans are clever enough to nominate a uniting, non-polarizing candidate like Huckabee. If they nominate someone like Romney, well then I'll stay at home.
LOL, the newspapers must get out of the northeast a bit and check out what the rest of the country already knows about Hillary Clinton.
Oh Van there you go digging up polls in favor of Hillary. Can I remind you again that none of these polls really matter yet, its far to early to declare victory especially when her unfavoriability rating is so high. If she really cared about the Democratic party, she wouldn't even be running. She's going to cause us to lose seats all over the country and good luck getting an independent or moderate republican to vote for her in the general election. If we run her as our candidate, we will lose. Again. Because the old gaurd dems like to play it safe. its time we stopped doing that and started pushing for the change we're always saying we want.
Hillary at the top of the Dem ticket will energise and unite the Republican party, leading to massive voter turnout in the GOP's advantage, because of the anti-Clinton sentiment and the anti-Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton sentiment.

This country is full of opportunities and smart people. It will be a shame that America cannot find a man who's smart and tough enough, or a woman who's not a Clinton to lead it. We must be really desperate to send another Clinton (who happens to be a woman) to the White House.
Dems would be more comfortable if Hillary settled for VP. If not, I believe we're going to lose again.
If Hillary runs and wins...you will probably see a very tough Hillary meeting the challenges thrown at her administration.  The world's Islamofacists will challenge her.  She will have to respond, and post 9/11 a weak response is no response at all
Don't even put Bush and Clinton together in the same sentence, the former is extreme right wing and the latter is left of center. Repubs like to lump everyone together when they get into trouble, "all politicians are the same" blah blah.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

you guys need to look up the word hypocrisy.


Lame.
I am really tired of these nasty stories about Hillary.  All this is doing is making her more simpathetic.  People are also not stupid.  They can see through planted stories like this.  
Obama for president, or I'm as a lifer democrat will be sitting this election cycle out.
How is it that these are the key states for Clinton  is Arkansas & Florida, and if she's leading in Florida who decides what the key states are and for why are they key states. Isn`t Florida where the Bushes rigged the voting process and won both times?
How can you people as Americans sit by and watch this happen again. We all as Americans need to step up and say NO to states that riggs the voting.
Hillary should not be the our next President. She has lied too mant times to the public however that never gets published, but let Obama lie ( Thats if you can find any lies )and it is plastered all over the news.

She voted for the war in Irag, her health insurance mismanagment, and she is playing with the minorities life as if she owns them, and  bribe money from lobbyist all out there for you to see.
She is a con artist and you all know it.

If another Clinton is in the White House we are DOMMED. YEAH & AMEN TO NO MORE BUSHES ARE CLINTONS!!!

I'll say it again, Any person who comes from a state that supports Bush, Gonzo and Delay, has no business in any reasonable discussion.  I think we all know who I'm talking about.

Anyway, over 50% of the people are registered democrats.  whoever wins the nomination in the democratic party will win the election.  If democrats don't vote for the democrat nominee because they don't like every single thing about the candidate, then you're idiots.  All you will be doing is helping a republican get into office.  Stop falling into the right wing trap of trying to divide democrats and their candidates.  Believe me, if Obama or Edwards were the front runner, the Right wing would be saying they have huge negatives and they won't win.  Stop worrying about negatives.  I find it funny that Hillary's poll numbers keep rising and yet the media keeps saying she has no chance to win. The media will find something negative to report on any front runner regardless of party.    
Hillary Clinton's ad campaign starts in Iowa today with a clip of ex-Gov. Tom Vilseck who endorsed her after he dropped out of the race.  I am still waiting to see the MSM report that her supporters paying of Vilseck's campaign debts for about $90,000 were not counted in either her fundraising nor her campaign expenditures reports.  When will the media start to report responsibly and inform the public of the corruption built into our campaign finance system?  
to you 'DEMOCRATS'...

you have to realize there are some people like me,
who have always voted democrat, but do not think of themselves as a strict democrat, and have little loyalty to "the party".

if you nominate Hillary, you will alienate us.

I WILL NEVER EVER VOTE FOR HILLARY.
Never.

She's no better than any republican running.
same old, same old...
Van,

What you don't know about the polls in Iowa is that they are completely meaningless for too many reasons to list. The latest "Iowa caucus poll" from Washington Post-ABC is invalid on its face. The poll sample itself prevents the poll from being valid. If I were to poll 500 people on the state of education in Iowa, and 400 of those polled had never lived in Iowa, visited Iowa, had family in Iowa, and had not studied education in Iowa, and then presented the poll results as representative  of Iowans view of education in the state, people would agree the poll was a joke. All polling (except the candidates internal polling close to the caucus) fail at the outset, because like my education poll example, they start with a inappropriate polling sample. All polling companies, whether Gallop, Rasmussen etc conduct their polls using voter registration lists to obtain their sample of "random democrats". Voter registration lists, and election records are public documents that can be purchased by the state at reasonable rates. The caucuses are put on by the two political parties, the list of who attended the last caucus (and prior to 04) is kept by the political parties. The Democrat party charges 100,000 for a copy of this list. The candidates have no choice but to purchase the lists, but no polling company is going to pay 100,000 in order to obtain access to the proper polling sample data. Instead they merely poll random registered Democrats and pass the poll off as representative of caucus voters. However, if the polling sample is not exclusively, or almost exclusively, made up of verified prior caucus attendee's, the overwhelming number of "random Democrats" polled will be people who have never attended a caucus, and won't attend this January. The result are nothing more than a name recognition poll of registered democrats. 1988 followed by 2004 had the largest caucus turn outs,   attendance didn't exceed 20% of registered Democrats in either record year. The 06 Democrat primary included a hotly contested race for governor. Turn out was considered high, and yet only 25% of registered Democrats managed to find the time to vote at the polls, or vote early by mail. Given 25% Democrat voter turn out is considered high primary turn out (04 primary turn out was 16%), and no caucus has ever had more than 20% of registered democrats attend a caucus,  in a random sample of registered democrats close to 80% will not attend the caucus.

I don't doubt Edwards is currently leading Iowa followed in some order by and Obama and Clinton however the level of support among Iowans who will actually attend their caucus is much lower than in the Post-ABC poll. Currently most Iowans who will actually attend their caucus are undecided. However in the Post-ABC poll only 4% said they were undecided, and 2% responded "none of these". In 04 over 40% of those who attended the caucus decided who to support with the week before the caucus, and only 30% had determined who to support a month or more prior to the caucus. The low number of undecided/"none of these" alone should have concerned the pollsters, but when that number is compared with the 9% who answered they were unhappy with the choice of candidates, the pollster should have realized the polls internal inconsistency. How can the number dissatisfied with the choice of candidates be over 4 times larger than the number in the poll who responded to "none of these"?


What the most recent Iowa poll told us is what most people already know Edwards, Obama, and Clinton have the greatest name recognition in the state. Big deal!

In 04 the pundits and pollsters were embarrassed, because the polls and pundits had determined the race was between Dean and Gephardt (they came in a distant 3rd and 4th at the caucus)In August of 03 Lieberman was polling in the double digits in the Des Moines Register's Iowa poll (considered the most accurate caucus poll)despite the fact that no one was showing up for his events. Lieberman's Iowa poll number's were even higher in polls conducted by groups outside the state. However, Lieberman's internal polling numbers alerted him to the reality that he had no hope in Iowa, by September he pulled out of Iowa. In November two months after pulling out of Iowa Lieberman was tied in 4th place with Edwards at 5% in the Register's poll, he continued to poll even higher in polls conducted by outside groups. At the caucus Lieberman  tied for last, behind uncommitted and Wesley Clark (at .1% Clark had also pulled out of Iowa) and Kucinich (at 1.3%). It is highly unlikely Edwards, Obama and Clinton will all come in the top three, and it is possible neither of them will win Iowa.
Timothy negatives are very real.  They motivate you opposition, and they simultaneously depress your voter turnout.  

Obama, will get the nomination because he is the most electable. Obama is more electable even after you take away a few points to account for racist people who won't vote for a black person no matter what.  Besides, anybody who wouldn't vote for a black person regardless of policy or position, is mostly likely a southern Republican anyway so Hillary isn't going to get their vote either.  But in addition to those people Hillary is going to turn off still more people who would vote for any democrat, other than Hillary, who runs this year
Timothy - Democrats don't account for over 50 percent of registered voters - they account for about 32 percent of registered voters. Just read that the other day. Its down to its lowest in years. Republicans are down, too, to something like 30.5 percent, if memory serves me. Google it if you want exact numbers.

The important thing to note is how large a group independents are - and the point of the story was to note that they had now grown to plurality status.

This is the Democrats race to lose, because of Bush fatigue and the Iraq war. They can lose it, though, and nominating Clinton would be the easiest way.
Sara - Interesting post. Given your experience with Iowa politics, what would you say is the biggest indicators of strength for this point of the caucus cycle? Local organization, attendance at campaign events?

Or is it too early to have any meaningful indicators?
to you 'DEMOCRATS'...

you have to realize there are some people like me,
who have always voted democrat, but do not think of themselves as a strict democrat, and have little loyalty to "the party".

if you nominate Hillary, you will alienate us.

I WILL NEVER EVER VOTE FOR HILLARY.
Never.

She's no better than any republican running.
same old, same old.


--------------


Chelsea?!?  That you?
you're all sheep.  It really doesn't matter who you vote for.  At least half of the country is going to have their precious little feelings hurt.  No one in this country has the ability to see both sides of an arguement so even if we got a president like Obama he wouldn't be able to change the fact that at it's core America is filled with a bunch of selfish morons.
Yeah that's right, you're all a bunch of idiots.  No, no though please continue having the same pointless discussions about what needs to be done in the world.  It won't change the fact that the reason so many countries are upset with us is because of the last 60 years of American foriegn policy.  Their countries are in Economic ruins because our companies came in after WWII and sucked the resources out of everywhere they could exploit.  We had our CIA start revolutions in countries where elected leaders tried to get more of a fair deal with American firms.  We installed ruthless dictators, in the middle east, south america, central america, don't even get me started on Africa.  How many millions of people died because of our selfishness?  
Not that anyone will listen to this, because like a said before you're all a bunch of idiots.  And you don't care.  You claim to have this great respect for human life, but then you feel that the life of an American is worth so much more than the life of a third world individual.  
Blame America first?  No, but it would be nice if we could show a little integrity once in a while and take blame where we know it's due.  
So go ahead, vote for hillary or vote for whatever nimble minded fool gets the republican nod and support the corporastocracy that owns you.

required reading:  
John Perkins, "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"
Howard Zinn, "A People's History of the United States"
Lester Brown, "Plan B 2.0"

Those books should give you a better understanding of foriegn policies and domestic economic and environmental policies as well.

Note: You'll need to be able to read past the level of a fifth grader.  I know that not many of you can.
Paul, I know you didn't ask me, but I am going to guess simple name recognition, people knowing who you are, people being able to remember your name without having it told to them in a multiple choice question.  

Now I don't think that is real strength. But I do think that is the most important component in getting good poll numbers at this point in the caucus.  

P.S.

There are more people like "j" than we can count.  For the benefit of the entire country Dems had best to listen to them.  
Just checked in to see what Jerry thinks about anything.  Turns out he has charming thoughts about everything.  Just like the last time I checked.

Turns out a lot of people take his bait.  Dumb and really dumb.  

Did read some good stuff here, but it is just wilted lettuce in a punk sandwich.

Besides myself, I think the only people who read these comments are people who love to read their words online. You could all save yourself (and me as well) the trouble by writing yourself a letter and sending it special delivery.

Me?  I am crazy as hell for even wasting my keyboard writing here.  Yet, it is so much fun to read my own stuff, I just can't stop.  I feel your pain lonely posters.

I should probably just go away.  So I will. On the other hand... When I go to a restaurant and find a fly  pooping in the soup, I sometimes alert the authorities.  Sometimes I don't.

I have learned the hard way that some people apparently like fly poop soup.  They even order seconds.  None of my business.  Heartfelt apologies for complaining.

This is a free country and you are free to eat any kind of soup you like.  Just please stop dribbling.

Rock on, the bus is leaving.
Darrius - no problem. Its an open messageboard obviously and you're opinion is as good as mine.

I probably wasn't clear (again) with my post. I know sometimes I'm hard to read. I was trying to ask what can we look at now that might actually indicate who has things going there way for the Caucus vote.

Name awareness probably is less a factor in Iowa than in other settings. The Caucus tends to draw a small number of people who have been inundated with presidential candidates for months - New Hampshire is sort of the same, but with an open primary format.

I'd like to hear from people in Iowa (even Carrie), but is there anything now that we can look at in terms of who might have Caucus strength? I'm guessing the answer is, "no, too early."


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