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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Obama gets more profiles

Posted: Monday, August 13, 2007 9:09 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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Last week was the GOP's turn to dominate Iowa. This week, it's the Democrats. Both Edwards and Obama have bus trips that will involve some state fair time.

CLINTON: The AP's most experienced Clinton reporter, Ron Fournier, has a story that questions Hillary Clinton's electability -- not for herself, but for Democrats down the ballot. "In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races… The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates.”

The Boston Globe examines Clinton's efforts over the years to build her national security resume. "Clinton has taken extraordinary pains, not only on the campaign trail but in her years in the US Senate, to position herself as the candidate who would be the strongest commander in chief, even as she has infuriated some Democrats who believe her desire to appear tough made her slow to criticize the Iraq war."

The New York Times reports that Clinton's first quarter fundraising take is actually lower than originally reported -- low enough that she ended up even with Obama on total money raised. Of course, Obama outraised her in primary money in the first quarter, but many press reports at the time included Clinton's overall total (which included approximately $6 million in general election money), which was more than Obama's.

It’s not Oprah, but it’s also not bad… Former Lakers’ star Magic Johnson will host a Sept. 14th fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton. Also in attendance will Quincy Jones, Motown founder Berry Gordy, and former Motown Chairman Clarence Avant.

DODD: Fresh from taking shots at Obama during last week's AFL-CIO debate, Dodd goes after Clinton. Here's a direct quote in today's New York Sun on Clinton and health care. “‘So when people say I'm ready to lead, fine, so tell me how you have. And I cite, you know, I know my colleague from New York says this all the time, and I say this respectfully, that she “bears the scars” from what happened on the health care thing,’ Mr. Dodd said. ‘Political scars are one thing. But the scars from mismanaging an issue that people have had to pay [for] because they haven't had any health insurance or coverage for the past 15 years is a lot more serious in many ways. So when you're talking about how that happened, it happened because it was mismanaged.’”

And for good measure, here's another Dodd shot at Obama: “‘When you're reading off a teleprompter at a speech, in front of a distinguished audience, and you pose a hypothetical problem and propose a hypothetical solution to it, which suggests the unilateral action into another country that is a nuclear power, the alternative of which is a jihadist, fundamentalist state with nuclear weapons, that's irresponsible,’ Mr. Dodd said. ‘Who's advising him, first of all? But you ought to have enough sense, beyond a briefing book knowledge of this thing, you don't say those kind of things.’”

EDWARDS: We've said it before, we'll say it again: Nothing gets the media going like hypocrisy. Politico's Ben Smith may have uncovered some in reporting that News Corp. paid Edwards' daughter and chief political aide, Jonathan Prince, money for the most recent Edwards book. This is in addition to the money the campaign already disclosed and already said went to charity.

OBAMA: The Washington Post has an in-depth profile of Obama, and it focuses on his meteoric rise. Here's an interesting nugget about his ambition: "And then there's ambition -- a given in any presidential candidate, but worth pointing out because Obama works hard to dispel the image of having sought his superstar status. ‘It's not about me, it's about you,’ he likes to tell his crowds. But according to those who know him, he has been talking about the presidency for more than a decade. ‘It was clear to me from the day I met him that he was thinking about politics,’ says Harvard Law School classmate Christine Spurell.” 

Obama will be on the cover of the September GQ -- in fact, it's the magazine's first political cover since '92, when Clinton and Gore shared the honor. Ryan Lizza, now of the New Yorker, pens the piece. From the piece's subhead: "We already know that Barack Obama has what it takes -- the crowd-pleasing charisma, the outsize ambition, the audacity of hope -- to be a serious candidate for president. But does he have all the rest -- the nerve, the political spine, and the will to do the (sometimes dirty) work it takes to get to the White House? That is the question. A journey with the new star of the Democratic Party."

Some interesting excerpts (the piece won't be on GQ's web site until 10:00 am today): "One way to describe Obama is that underneath the inspirational leader who wants to change politics -- and upon whom desperate Democrats, Independents, and not a few Republicans are projecting their hopes -- is an ambitious, prickly, and occasionally ruthless politician. But underneath that guy is another one, an Obama who’s keenly aware that presidential politics is about timing, and that at this extremely low moment in American political life, there is a need for someone -- and he firmly believes that someone is him -- to lift up the nation in a way no politician has in nearly half a century.”

“One of the riddles of the Obama campaign is, to what extent does a candidate who preaches a gospel of changing politics need to run a revolutionarily different kind of campaign? The question has gnawed at Obama since he entered the race. At his very first press conference as a candidate, a reporter asked Obama why he was employing a team of opposition researchers -- aides who spend their days and nights digging up dirt on other candidates and often leaking that info, ‘anonymously,’ to the media.”

More from Lizza after a June speech: "I realize I have never witnessed a politician so genuinely trying to fuse idealism and pragmatism. The theme runs through almost everything he says. ‘But the flip side of it is,’ he explains, hinting at what divides him and Hillary, ‘if it’s all tactics and all politics, and there’s not the idealism, if it’s not touched by that sense of movement, then you actually never bring about change. Then it’s just pure transactions between powerful interests in Washington.’”

RICHARDSON: The Washington Post's Capehart, who was one of the questioners at last weeks Human Rights Campaign forum, chastises Bill "I'm not a scientist" Richardson for his answer about whether being gay is biological or a choice. Left unsaid in the column was the fact that this was yet ANOTHER case where Richardson showed the potential to melt under the glare of the spotlight. A friend of "First Read" wondered to us over the weekend: "Bill Richardson has winged it all his life and gotten away with it; but you can't wing it when running for president."

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Comments

Sara from Cedar Rapids,
Awesome post! Very informative.
van, What cara said ! right on Go obama
charles you a fool wit it .keep preachin
Local organization is very important, but it is one of many factors. But in 04 the two campaigns who had the best local organizations came in 3rd and 4th, although both Kerry and Edwards had good local organization. Size at events can be very misleading. Obviously if a candidate comes into a town with a population base in excess of 50,000 and has an event at a reasonable time of day, and less than 10 people show up it is a sign of trouble. Hillary had large crowds over the fourth of July but an overwhelming number of them (at least in Cedar Rapids) came to see Bill Clinton. Obama has had huge crowds, and he's been willing to go to events with a relatively small guest list. It is anyone's guess how many people who have (or will) attend an Obama event will go to their caucus. Senator Kerry never had any where near the crowd size of Dean. Dean's 03/04 record setting crowds have been shattered by Sen. Obama.

Most Iowans place electability as a top priority in choosing a candidate. Dean was viewed by a large percent of Iowan's as unelectable. Many people agreed  100% with what he said, and felt he would make a great President, but there was real concern by an overwhelming number of Iowa Democrats that he was unelectable. The polls never picked up on this concern until just prior to the caucus. Pundits incorrectly attributed this concern to negative campaigning by Gephardt. However the electability concern was present long prior to Gephardts ads, or push polling in late December. Some people had silly reasons such as Dean's lack of height. They didn't personally care about his height, but historically W is the first, or one of the first candidates to win a general election who was shorter than the opponent. A large number felt that Rove etc. would kill Dean on his support of universal health coverage. The country has come a long way in 4 years on this issue, but the concern in 03/04 was that the public would fear "socialized medicine" (oh the evils....)

It was the most interesting caucus I have ever attended. I felt sorry for Dean's supporters, because they were ostracized from the supporters of all the other candidates. Kerry and Edwards supporters got along, the common bond among the non-Dean supporters was "anyone but Dean." The caucus viability process is strange, if your candidate doesn't have enough support to be viable (a mathematical formula) you join another candidate, start a new group (such as uncommitted)or give up and leave (few do that). Only one supporter of a non-viable candidate at our caucus (Gephardt, Clark, and Kucinich were all non-viable) joined Dean (if you guessed a Kucinich supporter you were right) After all the non-viable supporters joined a new group (or left, like one Gephardt supporter)according to the formula Dean needed one more supporter to get another preference vote. If one of Edwards supporters joined Dean's group Kerry would lose a preference vote, Edwards preference total would remain the same, and Dean would gain a preference vote. There was not one out of the approximately 60-75 Edwards supporters that would join Dean. From a tactical stand point it was in Edwards interest to have one supporter join Dean's group (in order for Edwards number to increase by one they needed 3-5 Dean supporters). Edwards supporters fully understood the tactical advantage, but they were clear they would all rather go to Kerry before they would help Dean. They let Dean's supporters know if they wanted to decrease Kerry's support they should send the 3-5 Dean supporters to them, knowingly full well that wasn't going to happen. I had never seen anything like this before.

Pundits like to compare Obama to Dean due to his  fund raising ability and massive crowds. I don't know whether Obama can pull it off in Iowa, he is very well liked (even loved) and respected, but there is a concern. However, you don't hear or feel the type, or degree of animosity, and real "anyone but Dean" talk about Obama that was present from mid summer of 03 that surrounded Dean. From my prospective Hillary appears to be this years Dean. There is a real fear that Hillary can not win the White House, and if she is our nominee the next President will be a Republican. I have never heard so many Democrats state that they have been praying that Hillary is not the nominee, and it is not a figure of speech, they are very serious. Like in 03/04 the common bond between people who do not support Hillary is that she is unelectable. If Dean's electability problem was a 5 out of 10 on caucus night in 04, Hillary's electability problem is already at a 9, maybe a ten. I really don't see how the concern could grow more than it is presently. There are people that are literally mad that Clinton doesn't understand/accept that she can't win. Whether Hillary can overcome the electability concern enough to come in first or second at the caucus won't be known until very early January. If I were to bet on it I would bet no. No matter how many national polls indicate that Hillary can win nationally people don't believe it, just as they didn't think Dean could beat Bush. I do think that many people view Hillary unfairly. I personally like Hillary. In my hallway hangs a 8-10 photo I took of Hillary holding my then 2 year old daughter the night before the 1996 election, when President Clinton stopped in Cedar Rapids for a election eve rally for Sen. Harkin.  I had Sen. Clinton autograph the photo in 02 when I attended a fund raiser at her home in DC. Most Iowa Democrats that are concerned nominating Hillary will ensure a GOP President don't hate, or even mildly dislike Hillary, many (but by no means all)would like to see her President (some because of Hillary, others "to get Bill back in the White House") but the fear is she can't win the general.

On the ground I don't see a high level of support for Hillary. There are people who are deeply devoted to her, many of the same people who support her now were supporters of Dean in 04. They are idealist, but pragmatist greatly out number idealist at the caucus. Hillary is spending a lot of money in Iowa (she has a lot of paid staff), but she doesn't appear to be increasing the level of support (probably why she's going to start running ads). On July 30th her campaign released the names of 105 Iowa women who have agreed to encourage their friends to support Hillary. This is on her website (under states choose Iowa), her press release spun this as an accomplishment. I couldn't believe they'd even bother releasing this. My initial reaction was 100? There are 99 counties in Iowa that is only 6 more women willing to campaign for her than Iowa counties. Ignoring the fact she is the first serious Democrat women running for President, I would think anything less than 1,000 names would be embarrassing (especially since you must sign in to get into a Hillary event, the campaign was able to obtain several thousand names just from the July 4th event in CR in which to find people willing to agree to be on her list). My shock at the low number was before I saw that in May John Edwards released a list of over 1,500 Iowa women committed to his campaign. When I read Hillary's list of "Women, most with credentials in politics" I laughed. In order to make the women appear to be movers and shakers, women who had never been employed outside the home were listed as "local activist" "community activist" "activist"  "community volunteer", or one is listed as  "Girl Scout Troop Leader" Almost half of the women listed are given the activist/volunteer title. I don't think the campaign is ashamed that these women don't work outside the home, but merely wanted it to appear that these 105 women were all prominent.
...but all politicians are the same.  We would have a better government if the positions were decided by a random nationwide lottery.  VENTURA 4 PRESIDENT!!!
Judy from Tuscon, AZ: "Everywhere she goes, things turn in her favor quickly."

I would imagine that's a tough claim to support, considering the time she's spent in Iowa, NH, and SC and her resulting poll numbers compared to Obama.  Also focus groups and before-and-after polls on debates.  I am a biased Obama supporter, but I would make that statement about him for the reasons just stated.

Again a very interesting read, Sara. Thanks for the insider's view.
I am generally a Clinton fan, having been to the Clinton homeplace in Hope, AK and the Clinton Libary in Little Rock.  I believe Bill CLinton is one of the most gifted politicians of our time. Having said that, it's important to remember that many of the things a Clinton Aministration brought us did not work so well.  NAFTA has been a disaster. Hillary's Health Care Reform attempt was a major failure. Don't Ask, Don't Tell was a spineless compromise that has allowed over 10,000 hnorable gays to be booted from the military. Clinton pardoned his own brother and a few hundred others on the way out.  Perhaps Hillary learned from some of these mistakes. She's running a nearly flawless campaign but I don't see much change in corporate influence under another Clinton Administration. The latest poll showing Hillary with a 49% unfavorable rating nationlly does not bode well for Democrats.

Hillary is handling her campaign like a seasoned pro. Perhaps she can reverse her negatives. As for me, I prefer to just turn the page. As someone said "Enough of the Bushes & Clintons."

For Edwards to make poverty his central theme and be stupid enough not to recognize that running a poverty center while getting $400 haircuts creates an awful impression, shows he's out of touch and at the least...creates bad perceptions.

From what I've seen, Obama offers the best hope for change although I have concerns about some of his public foreign policy statements.

Perhaps we should all take a deep breath. Campaigns have a way of revealing things whether deliberately or by circumstance.  Any of them can still screw up royally.  The bottom line is we need a candidate that can beat the GOP. We should never assume the GOP cannot win again.  All eyes should be on the general election as we nominate a Democratic candidate.

Oh...let's not forget there are other Democratic candidates too and they all deserve to be heard out.



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