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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Ames straw poll

Posted: Monday, August 13, 2007 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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Out of 14,302 ballots cast, here were the results on Saturday: 1) Romney 4,516 votes (31.6%); 2) Huckabee 2,587 (18.1%); 3) Brownback 2,192 (15.3%); 4) Tancredo 1,961 (13.7%); 5) Paul 1,305 (9.1%); 6) T. Thompson 1,039 (7.3%); 7) F. Thompson 203 (1.4%); 8) Giuliani 183 (1.3%); 9) Hunter 174 (1.2%); 10) McCain 101 (0.7%); and 11) Cox 41 (0.3%).

The Washington Post called Romney's win "convincing," but it adds: "Romney's victory came against a relatively weak field that did not include Giuliani, Sen. John McCain of Arizona or former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee, and after he heavily outspent those who did compete. Still, the result, with Romney easily outpacing his rivals with 32 percent of the vote, helps elevate him from relative obscurity six months ago to the top tier of the GOP field -- despite his relatively low standing in national polls."

VIDEO:  Romney wins the Iowa straw poll.

Romney was on TODAY this morning to talk about his win. “It sends a message that America is ready for a change, and that change begins in Iowa.”

The Daily Iowan appears to give Huckabee the victory via the headline: "Huck of a day at the straw poll." Adds the paper: "While a solid Romney victory was widely expected, the real winner" was Huckabee.

Tom Edsall, writing in the Huffington Post, calls Romney's victory unimpressive. "Romney's margin over a collection of underfunded second and third tier challengers barely matched or fell short of past winners in much tougher battles involving multiple heavyweight candidates."

The Des Moines Register’s Yepsen wrote on Sunday that Romney’s victory was “a bit hollow” and “may not be the prohibitive front-runner in Iowa after all.” He cited low turnout, including Romney’s “4,516 votes, fewer than the 7,418 votes George W. Bush received when he won the 1999 straw poll.”

Notes Salon's Scherer: "The key to Huckabee's second place finish was the block of roughly 700 voters who either paid for their own tickets or had another campaign or organization buy their ticket. Not everyone who boarded Romney's buses, for example, planned to vote for Romney." Photo wrapped left:

Thompson dropped his bid for the Republican presidential nomination after finishing sixth at the straw poll.

The Sunday Des Moines Register looked at some of the color at Ames and wondered if this wasn’t really the state fair: “Duncan Hunter had an Elvis impersonator. Ron Paul's tent had a live monkey. John Cox had a raffle for a luxury vacation. Mike Huckabee gave away a 150-pound watermelon.”

And don’t miss the photo of Huckabee eating pork on a stick … or of Huckabee jamming on stage with a Jimi Hendrix-like guitar strap.

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Comments

Romney, I hope you got alot more money. Those straw votes were very expensive. Let's "buy" America.
romney needs to do every american a favor and fall off the edge of the earth, and he can take his $1200 a week make up artist with him, good day
Seems like huckabee is one of those who can truly unite the nation unlike the clintons and bushes... it remains to be seen..
I'm sick and tired of the divisive politics.
It seems that Romney's as out of touch with reality as Bush. If he thinks that after buying all those votes and having none of the tougher contenders and Huck still coming in with 18%, this guy's got a light out somewhere - and do we need another one of these types in office?  
The Romney bashers seem a bit upset.  What do you think Hillary and Barak will do with the tens of millions they raise?  Bury it in the backyard?  No, they will campaign with it, and you call that buying votes if you wish.  Nobody stands in the voting booth watching , so people vote for who they choose.
It will take a hell of alot more money to get my vote.
This country needs another SELF-RIGHTOUS/RELIGIOUS MEGLOMANIAC (Huckabee)like we need a giant meteor to descent upon us and take us out of our misery. Do we really need an ordained minister who plays a guitar to be our next president? HELL NO
"It sends a message to America that anyone with enough money can buy the straw poll."
It fits the repub mantra buy everything you can afford, good show mitt, every vote bought and paid for.
Sorry Mitt, but a majority of people in your own party aren't going to be voting for you because you're a stinken MORMON.
Juan- There u go again.
Maybe you had some bad dealings with christians. I don't know what the source of your hate/dislike is.. If you look at the democratic side they're no different when it comes to religiousity. I don't think there is any connection between electing religious candidates and their performance. Lincoln was probably by far the most religious president, every other statement from him had to do with God. Still, I think he did a phenomenal job and saved our nation.
There are lots of christians that have given Christ and Christianity a bad name, I agree. However, Juan, dont stereotype people.
How Huckabee is remains to be seen. I think from his statements and past actions he seems to be a genuine guy. Keep an open mind my friend.
Giuliani and McCain were in the straw poll, and finished behind Fred Thompson. All finishing with less that 2% of the vote. This shows that they have almost zero grass roots support other than their roots in the Main Stream Media like MSNBC. Zero grass roots support with the people in the United States, with such a miserably low showing they should withdraw and the Main Stream Media should quite giving their darlings billion of dollars in free political campaign contributions masquerading as news.
Go Mitt
I heard Mitt puts his wife on the roof of the car while driving when she doesn't behave. But not in a cage(too cruel) she has to hang on tight...
"Show me the money!!!!" Jerry McGuire
buying votes in Iowa is a good indicator of the votes Republicans will get in the general election because ---?
The way the media and competing candidates are trying to portray Iowans who voted in the straw poll as people who can be bought for a free bus ride, chicken leg or $35 ticket are making a serious mistake.  Don't say nobody warned you.

And we already know why Giuliani, Gingrich, Fred Thompson and McCain didn't enter the Iowa straw poll.  No news flash there.  We also know how hot it was, because most parts of the country were experiencing it as well.  

Interesting how these so-called *news* commentators and reporters leave so many facts out to try and make things appear different than reality.  Even an old cowboy is smarter than they are and you fired him.  Imus had one of the best shows on during the elections, but you bagged him in favor of some black racists who were complaining about him, WHILE trying to get four white students imprisoned at Duke on phony rape charges from a prostitute who changed her story umpteen times.  Nice work, MSNBC, you sure are showing your colors.  
jt-I was raised catholic;however; my problem are with the so called evangelicals who love to wrap themselves around the bible and are the first to judge others. Case in point my paternal uncle who was very pious and critizing my parents for not taking us to church after we were 12/13 years old 30 years ago and low and behold he was carrying on an affair that produced a child. We are a SECULAR REPUBLIC with seperation of church and state. Do not bring regligion into politics PERIOD. It has only been since 2000 that it has been forced down our throats by Republicans WHO HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE HYPOCRITS!GOT IT!
I agree with the statement about the media giving free political coverage to their favorite candidates under the guise of news while forcing the rest of them to come up with the money to get recognized.  We do not need people like the media fixing our elections, so blow.  
Concerning Mitt Romney are Americans ready to vote for a man who believes that the Lord Jesus is the brother of Satan and that humanity originates near a star called Kolob ? I sincerely hope not  - concerned Christian from Great Britain
Yeah, Juan, I get the fact that you don't know too many evangelicals, except the kind the media wants you to know.  Go look further into Gov Mike Huckabee and see how judgmental he ISN'T and stop your religious bigotry.  I went to Catholic school and church when I was a kid and they were always saying other people weren't Christian, except for them.  Not everyone was born yesterday, buddy, and I get your trip from here.  Con job.  
Why don't some of the media ask the people in Massachusetts what they thought of him as a Governor.  He was a no-show my family all live there and they say the only time they saw him was when he decided to run for President then he went and inspected the bad tunnel at the Big Dig.   He was
a zero as a Governor imagine him as a President. Yikes!
Juan -
I figured that you had some bad experiences with false christians. It's understandable.

I think Religion and Politics can be mixed, but the government should have no say in church affairs and the church should not have any control over the government. Can the church influence decisions? sure. But the church should not step in and take control over govt affairs (like a theocracy).

Mike huckabee has been a baptist minister, and he still preaches some sunday's till this day. If I were him I would not preach once I become President, but from his actions as a Governor in Arkansas he hasn't done anything like Charles Moore (I think), the attorney general of alabama who insisted the 10 commandments stay in the building. From the statements of Huckabee, you dont ever get the vibe that he is bigoted towards those that dont agree with him.  

Have republicans exploited "evangelicals"? Sure but not as much as how the democrats have exploited african americans. As an evangelical, I don't care what party the candidate belongs to. There is a way you can analyze a candidate and know if he is genuine or not. As far as I see, Mike Huckabee has been genuine and he has treated christians, non-christians, and atheists alike.

After a couple of day, putting the results into perspective, it's clear see: Romney has lost this poll.
He got hardly more than 2-3 times the votes each one of next FIVE candidates received.  None of those has more than 1-2% support in major polls.  Means Romney can't count on more than 6%.  He used to have 9% in polls prior to this one.  A clear loss.
Factor in the time and money spent, the fact he actually paid for the tickets (most supporters of other candidates paid for themselves), the low turnout.  
However, with one thing he said I have to agree: "He can't do better than that."  
Indeed he has no program, no political position (beside being a Mormon, which does not constitute one, IMO), very little credentials.  
This poll actually shows: Romney is dead as a candidate.
The winners are Huckabee, may be Tancredo, (but he has a single issue campaign), and Ron Paul of who mass media is scared to death (even to mention his name).
Without spending much they got much more than one would expect based on major polls.
Americanwomen/JT- Throughout history, the most heinous acts committed against others have been in the name of religion;theirfore; I will continue to remind you that the  hierarchy ignored/covered up the fact they were protecting pedophiles.Secondly, I have big problems with the bigotry that condenms me because I am gay because of scriptures that also includes stoneing unruly children etc. My partner adopted his son who is 16 now and doing excellent considering his natural mother was drug user and father was killed by police trying to stab mother; so much for the sanctity of marriage. In my 47 years of life I was never so involved in politics until The Republicans use hate/bigotry to put a wedge between Americans only to gain power at the ballot. So yes, unless you walk in my shoes; and know what it feels like; I will conitnue speak out.
Romney must be doing OK if he has Tinseltown [Hillary Country] upset. This den of the unreal[which took Tom Clanceys ''Sum of All Fears''and made the badguys whites,instead of the jihadis that they actually were in Clanceys novel],''Live Free Or Die''[white desperadoes again],or the ''Bourne Ultimatum''[which has the CIA as the bad guys],has hurredly cranked out another corker in time for the primaries,this one, aimed at Mormons [September Dawn]. Magically able to garner heretofore non-existant conversations between founder Joseph Smith and his leaders and those of Brigham Young with the Dannite members of his ''Mormon Battalion'',Hollywood paints the one as a vain opportunist,and the other,[played by the English actor Terrence Stamp],as an outright psychopath despite the fact that this religion sees these two men as ''Prophets'',no differantly than Muslims do Mohammed.
                Now. It is all too well known that Tinseltown likes to take its cinematic bigotry out on predominantly Christian sects. That is a given. However,the way that they have fallen over backwards in fear of angering Muslims has crossed the line into rank cowardice. Better for them that they not insult any religion at all. Yet these execs actually can see a bomb-laden truck driving into the side of UNIVERSAL or NEW LINE studios if they did anything to rock Mohammeds boat.[they may rest assured, however, that it will not be a Mormon at the wheel].
                  Contrast the two great religions.[which Mormonism admittedly is with its growing international membership].One calls for ''Death To Those Who Insult Islam''[from a crummy cartoon,of all things],and starts blowing things and people up. The other, from its quite majesturial HQ in Salt Lake City,says ''no comment'',and leaves it at this.
"The Big Top"-a circus movie
Michael - your comments are very perceptive , may I  add to what you have said . I have just finished a telephone coversation with a good friend of mine who is a journalist and a former Mormon who has become a Christian . In his opinion north of 40% of Romney's supporters in the straw poll were Mormon drawn from the small Mormon community in Iowa . If that is the case his win is virtually meaningless .
Although I guess Romney will spend yet more millions to spin it into something which appears better than it is .
I'm LMAO.  The front runners should be afraid of Ron Paul.  Hope he runs as an Indy and mucks up the Repubs.

Paul actually did the best of any Republicans fromone perspective.  He only purchased the minimum number os tickets, 800, and received 505 more from people that had to but there own tickets.  Thats a 62.5% increase in die hard supporters.  That's way better than anyoner else.  Despite all the ballyhoo for Huck Finn, he bought 2000 of the 2587 he received. God knows how many votes Romney bought, but I've heard around 3500.
If someone has better info please tell me.

I'll vote for any Dem over any Repub, but despite a difference in stands on a number of issues, Paul is the only Repub I have any respect for.  I think he is honest and principled.  I hope he screws the Repubs to the wall.
THE STRAW MEN AT THE STRAW POLL! A movie, coming to a theatre near you. Rerun. Just more pork.
'm LMAO.  The front runners should be afraid of Ron Paul.  Hope he runs as an Indy and mucks up the Repubs.

Paul actually did the best of any Republicans fromone perspective.  He only purchased the minimum number os tickets, 800, and received 505 more from people that had to but there own tickets.  Thats a 62.5% increase in die hard supporters.  That's way better than anyoner else.  Despite all the ballyhoo for Huck Finn, he bought 2000 of the 2587 he received. God knows how many votes Romney bought, but I've heard around 3500.
If someone has better info please tell me.

I'll vote for any Dem over any Repub, but despite a difference in stands on a number of issues, Paul is the only Repub I have any respect for.  I think he is honest and principled.  I hope he screws the Repubs to the wall.
Wow, do people actually think a guy with the last name Huckabee is going to make it to the oval office. A pastor, who plays in a band called "Capitol Offense". I'm going to be sick...
juan-
The world seems to be all doom and gloom to you. I guess Kucinich is the best choice!
What is the big deal about a Mormon?

Are you that much of a bigot that you will not look at a person beyond that?  Your bigotry will cost the GOP a dozen congressional seats and the White House as Mormons flee a bigoted party and a candidate who is openly against them.

Why all of the prejudice and bigotry?

Let us assume for a moment that Mike Huckabee gets nominated by the Republican Party for the presidency.  I know it is a bold assumption..  Let us examine his chances of his winning the general election without Mormon votes.  Given current American voting trends and demographics, he would have no chance.  If the Huckster is nominated, the swing states of Nevada (about 10% Mormon), Oregon (4%) and New Mexico (4%) will swing to the Democrats. Remember that President Bush lost Oregon by a couple thousand votes in 2000; New Mexico by a few hundred and picked it up in 2004 by an equally slim margin.  Besides losing swing states in 2008, Republicans could also lose solidly red states if they embrace the bigot for president.  What would losing Idaho (15%), Utah (1,800,000 Mormons), and Arizona (6%) (you don't hear McCain bashing Mormons, do you? in fact he's done just the opposite) do for Republican hopes?  Defections of Mormons in Colorado (131,000) and California (750,000) might cost a few Republican congressional seats or a senate seat along the way.  Losing the most-solidly Republican block in the country, the Mormons, or even putting it in play, would turn red states blue and put the Republican Party back into permanent minority status.



Mormons are tolerant folks, but they don't tolerate anti-Mormon hostility, especially the bigotry that has been demonstrated by Huckabee's supporters and, by extension Huckabee, for Huckabee's failure to call them on it. So, when all of these Mormons decide that they are not going to tolerate an anti-Mormon bigot in the White House, will Mormons in those states vote for a third party or just stay home?  Both options are being openly discussed in Mormon circles.  If it is a third party, Mormons trend Libertarian; but that is beside the point.  How could you vote for someone who is completely intolerant of your faith?  Mormons have marched along supporting the candidates of the evangelical right for decades (who voted more reliably for Bush than Mormons?  Not evangelicals.) and this Mormon and many others he happens to be talking to are ready to leave the party if Huckabee is nominated or his anti-Mormon campaign continues to be tolerated by the party.  



Think of Idaho, Utah, Nevada and Arizona turning blue?  Impossible?  Not if an anti-Mormon is on the Republican ticket.  People say Romney can't win without evangelicals, well, Huckabee can't win without Mormons.  It's a two-way street.  No Republican will win 2008 without us.



Before anyone discounts the idea of blue Mormons, consider that Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate is, a Mormon, who, despite being a Democrat, has enjoyed splitting the typically Republican Mormon vote in Nevada.  More telling is that Utah County, the home of BYU and the most densely Mormon and Republican area in Utah had a Democrat representing it in Congress for most of the 1990s.  Having been a part of the Mormon community in Utah and Nevada, I can tell you that anti-Mormon plays will not go over well in either place.



Having lived in Washington State, where as a Republican activist and campaigner, I saw first hand bigotry displayed by evangelical Christians at the State Convention, county conventions, and under the radar fliers distributed at churches, I know that the bigotry being spewed out but the Huckabites is, unfortunately, not an anomaly.  Having spent significant time in Missouri and Kansas, I know that a certain part of the Bible belt likes to use its whipping power to persecute Mormons.  Despite all of that, I have worked to get evangelical Christians elected to office on the Republican ticket.  Why?  Most evangelical Christians are decent Americans who believe in religious liberty.  However, too many times, I have seen evangelical Christians attack Mormon candidates, not because of the candidate’s history, qualifications or positions but by attacking the Mormon candidate's religion and that religion’s theology.  Such a line of attack is a very sensitive point for descendants of a people that was driven out of the United States by evangelical Christians and disenfranchised by the governments they dominated.



If the Republican Party embraces or excuses a chief anti-Mormon bigot, like Huckabee, I and countless other Mormons will not remain silent.  I will actively leave the party, stop donating to it, encourage others to do the same and campaign against Huckabee and what will remain of his no-tent party in the West.  If that means electing a Democrat, then I will do it.  I would rather have a tax and spend socialist than a deceitful bigot in the White House.  



If anyone has any questions about how strongly many of us feel about this, let me say that I am as likely to support Mike Huckabee as Jesse Jackson would support David Duke.  Is that clear enough?



To everyone, I encourage you to put a stop to Huckabee’s attacks against the Mormon church in the political arena.  For the non-Mormons out there, evangelical and non-evangelical alike, I encourage you to debate the men and women running for office, their positions, their qualities and their biographies, including Mitt Romney and other Mormons.  I don’t have a problem with you discussing religion in that context.   I don’t even have a problem with you attacking my religion outside the political arena (even if most of you who do it, do so based upon lies).  To the Republican Party, the current political home of most Mormons, I say that need to keep your religious tests and bigotry out of the public sphere or throngs of Mormons will bolt the party in 2008.



To the vast majority of evangelical Christians and people of all faiths who believe that values and experience, not theology and religious tests, should be the stuff we measure our politicians by, I embrace your commradery as a fellow American.  Let us work together to make America the haven of religious liberty that the Founders intended it to be.



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