ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, August 15, 2007 9:09 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s Blueprint? So are we to assume Obama's interview in today’s Washington Post -- in which he says he can bring the country together while Clinton cannot -- is a blueprint of his fall campaign? While not billed as that, it certainly reads that way. The Clinton camp took Obama's words as an attack, and it depends on one's perspective if saying that Clinton is less of a unifying force is actually direct shot or not. That said, when will Obama put that message in a TV ad? Is this what we should expect in September? Obama seems both comfortable and uncomfortable contrasting himself with Clinton, as the piece suggests.

VIDEO:  NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what may be Obama's campaign blueprint.

*** Turning Off The Lights: Karl Rove leaves at the end of the month. Denny Hastert, as expected, isn’t seeking another term. Tom DeLay has already left the building. So has Bill Frist. And Bush and Cheney will join them in 17 months. The GOP team that led the Republican Party to victories in ’00, ’02 and ’04 -- but also to its defeat last year and the party’s current poor brand -- is essentially out the door. That’s probably a plus for the GOP: It creates an opportunity for new leaders to take charge and redefine the party. (Check out Romney’s new TV ad in Iowa, in which he talks about change.) It will also make it somewhat harder for the Democrats, especially Clinton, to continue railing against the Bush White House; at some point, after all, Bush won’t be there anymore. But, as GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin writes, there’s a problem still hanging over the Republicans trying to succeed Bush: Iraq.

*** Courting The Media Isn’t Enough To Win: So how is Huckabee taking advantage of his surprising second-place straw poll finish today? Raising money in Texas? New York City? Stumping across New Hampshire or South Carolina? No, he's holding a media roundtable in a restaurant in Washington, D.C. And as we noted earlier in the week, the Huckabee campaign sent out a release on Monday touting the former governor’s upcoming media appearances and his earlier media hits that day. Despite his straw poll finish and his fine performances at the debates, can Huckabee dispel the notion held by many that he doesn’t want to be president -- but is instead running for a cable TV time slot?

*** Yet ANOTHER Democratic Forum: Dodd, Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Clinton and Obama today speak at the Iowa Federation of Labor presidential forum. Each candidate will appear separately (in the order above) and receive 30 minutes to answer questions. These candidates spend the rest of their day campaigning in Iowa. Biden, in fact, makes a stop at the soap box session at the state fair.

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani is also in Iowa; McCain speaks at the Aspen Institute in Colorado; and Romney campaigns in Michigan, Georgia, and Florida.

Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 66 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 83 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 94 days
Countdown to Iowa: 151 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 173 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 447 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 524 days

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Comments

"Bush and Cheney will join them in 17 months"

I pray this is true but I'm starting to have my doubts.

After hearing the newest insanity, that Bush is to declare that a sovereign country's military is a terrorist organization. Iran's Revolutionary Guard, including the elite Quds force, will soon become a "specially designated global terrorist", my only conclusion is that this administration is hell bent on starting WW3.

Notice that they still are not targeting those responsible for 9/11.

The whole lot of this infestation in the WH needs to be removed NOW!!

Please go to www.impeachbush.org and sign up. PLEASE plan to join us in the protest scheduled for 9/15.

PLEASE help get our country out of the hands of these madmen!
The same thing that brought down the Republican party will eventually destroy the democrat party as well.  Come November 08, when the American people reject the wild extreme left wing side of liberalism, Howard Dean and the moron that runs Daily KOS and the others will sail off into that good night as well.  Kind of like the mafia, gotta take out the leaders and bring in fresh blood every few years.
If the MSM didn't continually misrepresents his statements, Obama could get his message out better.  But it looks like MSM wants to make  Hilary Clinton the nominee.  It certainly makes it harder for Obama to catch a break, but I'm sure if enough people find alternative ways to hear his message, then MSN won't have as much affect.
GOP-Going, going...gone! It Iraq stupid!  
From the Washington Post:

"The United States has decided to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country's 125,000-strong elite military branch, as a "specially designated global terrorist...The Revolutionary Guard would be the first national military branch included on the list, U.S. officials said"
The media can help a lot to increase name identification. THe biggest problem Huckabee has now is the fact that no one has heard of him. Most respond by saying, huckabee, who??
He's persuing a smart technique which could pay off. Just watch and see.
One the main reasons I was uncomfortable with voting for Hillary Clinton was because of the Monica Lewinsky situation. I'm so damn tired of it all. Yet I wonder if the Republican Party will ever be able to put that behind them and allow Hillary to run on her own. I don't necessarily want her spending most of her campaign defending herself against the Rove's and DeLay's of the world because of her husband, as tough and as capable she is. Rove, Gingrich and DeLay have very little credibility as it is. As was mentioned on Keith Olbermann's program last night, it does take a machine to reach the White House. And quite honestly, because of the Bush Administration's dismal record, it won't be hard to fight back if Rove does join in the fight. I surely hope we don't have to go down that road, but I believe if we do, Hillary to her credit will be the one left standing.

I don't know if Mitt Romney will make President Clinton's behavior an issue; I don't think Giuliani should because of his own past.
Obama has been a creation of the media to a large degree, and only recently have been covering him in the manner all pols should be.
Huckabee is just George Bush without Karl Rove; another poltician who says he listens to a mythical entity whenever it suits his purpose to do so.
Only 524 days until a Democratic takes office as President. I hope we can survive until then.
I'm Bill's only legacy. The only "big thing" he took on.
Jennifer Rubin on Iraq being a problem still hanging over Repubs suceeding Bush. No, the Repubs don't get to start with a clean slate except for Iraq when the Bush freak show takes it on the road. The Republican party has been tainted with a rotten stench that isn't going away because they change the faces on the board of directors. Okay folks, Bush and Darth Vader are gone. Everything is going to be just la-de-da from now on. No, the Repub party is complicit in aiding and abetting the entrenched special interests and in aiding the wealthy to become wealthier. How about Halliburton? Shouldn't the Repub party be policing their own a-holes and criminals? Why is that BS left up to the Dems to clean up? We left them a fairly clean house, and by god they don't get a pass on what they are leaving us to clean up. Hell no! And the nerve of Romney tossing around the word "change". Romney knows almost as much about change as I know about performing heart surgery over the phone. Every bleeping step of progress since the beginning of written history has been made over the dead bodies of bleeping conservatives. Knuckle dragging Repubs need to make more progress in the trick of walking upright before they start worrying about esoteric concepts like change. I've got your change right here, momma. Change my ass.
I want to state upfront this is not an attack on Edwards, because generally speaking I like him and would vote for him if he is the one selected.  

Having said that, maybe one of you smart guys (Chuck, Mark, Domenico)has the answer to this question, or really anyone else.  When Edwards first ran for President he had only been in the Senate what 4-5 years with no previous executive or legislative  experience?  I can't remember all of the talk of his lack of experience.  Yes it was brought up time to time-more because he looked young- but not everytime he blinked an eye(or did I miss something).  Secondly, that remains the only national or legislative experience he has ( I don't remember him being a standout in the Senate..was he).  If that is correct where is the question about his experience to be President( running for the office before is like saying I was First Lady).

There appears to be a double standard going on here.  Is it because Obama is ahead of Edwards? WHAT are his  (Edwards)bona fides.  Obama actually has more legislative experience.
My reply, if you want to go back and look it up, was that this is what they said of themselves, that they reserve these rights to break a promise, to change their ways, to be dishonest, and so forth, if it furthered the cause of socialism.
If we are going to discuss Bush and Halliburton, then of course we must discuss Hillary and the drug makers that are in bed with her, as well as the other lobbyist's that are helping her buy the White House.
The republican manchine is far more organized and wide reaching than HRC political machine.  If there are any skeltons in Bill and Hill's closet they will be squashed by the RNC.  Hillary is unelectable.
People who support Clinton are against Bush and are most familiar with her (because of her husband's legacy) as the anti-Bush candidate.  People who support the others (Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich) do not want Hillary.  Her coronation is less assured when the polls are viewed in that way and I wish the talking heads would stop trying to make her nomination a foregone conclusion.  Many Democrats do not want the liability of a Clinton candidacy.  Many Democrats really do feel that she was disingenuous in authorizing the president to use force in Iraq in 2002 (and by opposing the Levin amendment which would have provided for Congressional oversite).
Many Democrats want a candidate that will end the Rovian polarization that has plagued this country for almost seven years now and feel that Hillary's polarizing nature (unfortunately for her) disqualifies her for this role.  
    Obama, with his history of being a concensus builder, is the candidate who can lead us with honesty and with newness of ideas.  He can serve as the true agent of change and help this nation find its way after this long nightmare of corruption, incompetence and disrespect for the Constitution of the United States of America.
Obama 'O8
JIrby, Well said!
If it comes down to a Rudy V Hillary, there is just no way Hillary will win.  Her past is just too much to overcome.  Rudy will be dragged thru the mud on his marriages and dress wearing and all that, but Hillary as wayyyyyy more skeletons in her closet then Rudy will ever have.  
I just love hillary's arguement that she has far superior foreign policy experience as compared to Obama. apparently his living abroad during his childhood gives him no insights.

Also, if she is going to use her first lady position as experience in foreign policy, then i must laugh.  So she is good at making conversation with strangers? (that's essentially what the spouses of world leaders do with the other spouses) Hell, if we are using that logic, my for job I have to talk to strangers all time, I'd be the best damn foreign policy expert ever because I make good first impresssions! God, Hillary is so irrelevant
It's about time, Obama.
This is a MAJOR ISSUE:
Obama can unite this country, Hillary CAN'T.

Hillary's got too much baggage.
As reported here, recently Congressional Democrats say her high negatives will have a major drag on the Democratic Congressional campaign.

You govern the way you campaign, and Hillary has been dishonest, mean spirited and vindictive in her campaign.

Another recent article here compared Hillary's campaign to George Bush's. There are too many similarities.

On top of that, Fortune magazine calls her 'Business'Favorite Candidate' !!!
Why is she BUSINESS' FAVORITE ??
What is she promising in exchange for her campaign contributions ?

Democrat: It wasn't just Monica (and Bill's cigar tricks in the Oval Office).
There was also Gennifer Flowers and Paula Jones.
Kathleen Willey and Juanita Brodderick charged Bill Clinton with sexual assault (but the statute of limitations had run out).

Bill Clinton agreed to be disbarmed in Arkansas in exchange for dropping Federal charges in connection with the Whitewater scandal.

These are REAL scandals. Has Bill 'matured' since ? Has Bill 'reformed' ? Has he even admitted any guilt ? Who needs the distractions ?
Who needs this dysfunctional family to lead America?

Democrat: can you think of any pieces of legislation Hillary has been responsible for in the Senate ? What has she accomplished during her tenure as a Senator ? (other than gaining 'experience' ?).

The most important vote of Hillary's career was to VOTE FOR THE IRAQ WAR !!

Some record, huh ?
Her most important vote lead to an American catastrophe !
Her most important vote helped Geroge Bush to convince the American people that the Iraq war was needed.
Hillary displayed some real leadership, huh ???

Obama can unite this country, Hillary will divide it

The next President of the "United" States of America, Hillary Clinton.   hillaryclinton.com
Alberto Gonzales to resign ?
Jerry, once again you have your facts wrong.  Election Day in 2008 is NOV 4 (the first Tuesday after the first Monday of NOV).  NOV 8, 2008 is on a Saturday.

Sierra, I love your passion about Obama and I agree with you.
Sierra, I am completely turned off by the Republican Party and I want a Democrat in the White House.
I'm voting for Senator Obama in the primaries. But if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, I will vote for her in November. But I guess I don't need to worry about the Republican Party going after her; Obama's supporters will do it for Karl Rove.

They are both excellent candidates. We should all stick together & support each other if we want a Democrat to win in 2008.

How do you feel about that?

jerry, I agree with you; both Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton are going to get creamed if they're the nominees. Maybe somewhere someone from each of their campaigns will come together and decide to try and take the high road on this one.  Just stick to the issues at hand.

I'm not holding my breath.

I see DEMS hasn't had his coffee yet.  I think Hillary's foreign policy experience is shaking hands with people after her husband was introduced first.
Monica, Monica, Monica -- keep your mouth shut and you will stay out of trouble.  Also don't confide your intimate affairs with 'friends'
I do think this is a key question. It goes to the motivations of many of those supporting Clinton and Obama.

Many people supporting Clinton want her because she's the big stick for the final poke in the Republican gut. I've posted that several times, and I haven't had too many if any Clinton supporters take issue with it.

Many people supporting Obama want to put the trench war in the past and start looking for ways to unify and move forward - perhaps only a little - no one is saying partisan differences won't remain.

So its a question of what the party wants. Is it still looking to fight the "evil" Republicans or is it looking to move past this trench war?
All the dems have to do is continue to show Guliani wearing dresses and makeup, over and over and his goose is cooked. 3 marriages is bad enough and his children hate him, but dressing in drag again and again is VERY odd to say the least. Also getting an interview with the exwife that he cheated on and made a fool out of might be interesting. I have a feeling their is sooo much more dirt about this guy that hasn't surfaced yet, that will ultimately destroy him.
I sure hope all of the Democratic field for President begins to take a look at the big picture.  Maybe HRC could win, but what are we going to endure to get her there and what kinds of attacks will linger during her tenure?  Senator Obama is my choice; former Senator Edwards second.  Many posts here have stated the desire to set a new course of politics and hope.  The audacity of our hope is to get some new blood in DC and the WH.  I cannot fathom the fatigue I will feel after 4 years of Bush I, 8 years of Clinton I, 8 years of Bush II, and maybe 8 years of Clinton II.  We deserve better, and she is not it.  Go Obama.
TODAY I DECLAIR MY CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT !
Well, the supposedly liberal media is following recent precedent by becoming press secretaries to the right and hyping Hillary's White House experience (as what, First Lady?  Big deal) her being so presidential, so charming, so inevitable, thereby helping the right get the candidate they most want to run against.  

HRC takes away any need for Rs to give up the middle and choose a hard right social conservative.  With HRC, they can count on an energized right wing coming out to vote against her regardless.  

Just as when the supposedly left wing media treated the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth as if they deserved an iota of credibility, made fun of Kerry's wind-surfing (looks like a pretty cool sport to me)  and encouraged the entirely inaccurate image of him as a phony hunter, the right can always count on their support.  Who needs FOX when you have the main stream media?  Here we go again.
Lyn - I didn't read First Read back then (was it even around?) but I can assure you, in  Iowa there was a lot of talk of Edwards lack of experience in 2004.  

Scott - How much insight can you get before you turn 10?  If I'm not mistaken, he was very young when he lived overseas.  Sure, you can develop some sort of appreciation for the people and culture but I don't think an 8-year-old is contemplating global affairs.  

Sierra - Is Bill running for office?  Hm..nope, don't think so.  I guess that kinda makes all of that rehashed junk you are spewing out right and left kind of irrelevant, doesn't it?  

Independent - I'm not sure that is all that much different than the whole "enemy combatant" designation for Taliban troops that were captured in Afghanistan.  Whether we like it or not, the Taliban was the governing body in Afghanistan at the time we attacked.  It only follows that the military arm of the Taliban, their armed forces if you will, was necessarily the army of Afghanistan at that point in time.  They were the troops of the governing body of that nation defending their territory against an outside invasion.  

But this takes it one step further, you are right.  The Taliban was recognized by some governments but not by others as being the legitimate ruler in Afghanistan.  I don't think there is any doubt that the government in Iran is the official and legitimate government.  It's all part of Bush's slippery slope.  Pretty soon any country we disagree with will be classified as terrorist and then we can just bomb the hell out of everyone we don't like in the name of the War on Terror.  
JIrby, I have to disagree with you on only one small point.....Mitt Romney does know all about change; he changes his political positions almost everyday. lol
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, "IMPEACH" BUSH NOW !
Well said, Mitchell!
you can stick your heads in the sand if you want but the fact is hillary is already a part of the problem in washington, there is no way to defend her being in bed with some of the most disgusting lobbyists in washington and her rovian tactics of never answering a direct question on any important issue, I still don't think obama can win the general election but if he's nominated I will vote for him, I can't vote for hillary, it would be in everyone’s best interest to vote for the safest dem candidate which is edwards, and always has been, the dems have to have a candidate that can beat the repubs in the general election, we can not afford four years of rudy or mitt
bush/cheney/rove /jerri have gauranteed a dem will be president and dems will control both houses of congress for next 20-30 years, thanks guys.
IF Cheney/Bush allow an election, I can see Clinton getting smeared and wiftboated right out of the race---too many weak points for the attack dogs of the GOP to hit, which makes her unelectable.  And if a Republican gets in, he will solve that little Iraq problem by starting up the draft again, and then the American people will see just what brand of garbage they just bought for themselves.
And Jerry; I know saying "democratIC'makes Dems sound like they're more for a democracy than Repugs---which they clearly are, given the current transhing the Constitution has gotten at GOP hands, but, so sorry, the word still is DemocratIC (as in stands for democracy, unlike its opposition) Party.  Get it right.
Make No mistake about it Mark Murray, Obama is very comfortable in drawing a distinct line between him & hillary. Only the so-called pundits, need there heads removed from hillary's ASS(maybe a colonoscopy is in order). The rest of America is very aware of MSM desire for hillary to be annoited."DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER"
This Bears Repeating:

POLARIZATION

This is the reason why Hillary Clinton has the highest unfavorables.

Democrats, whether we want to admit it or not, we will require the support of Moderates and Independents who are not very fond of this polarizing bickering back and forth, to win in 2008. Hillary Clinton is demonstrating , yet again, that she is just as , if not more divisive than George Bush. She ran an ad that would have been great......in 2004. She has yet to join us in the PRESENT DAY and she is showing us all that she is a Polarizing and Divisive politician . What is SHE talking about when SHE says "CHANGE"? Change from what? Change from one Polarizing and Divisive President to another Polarizing and Divisive President? That's what she's showing me. Barack Obama has noticed this as well as he so eloquently pointed out that he is the candidate that can unite the nation.

Sure, this is fun for us Democrats. I love to see Bush attacked. I get a kick out of it too. But, this just in....we are not running against George Bush, we are running to move America forward. All of America. Senator Clinton needs to leave the polarizing partisan warfare to the real professionals....the Progressive Blogosphere and not try to openly divide the nation before the Primaries are even held. It's not about just winning over Democrats in a Presidential Election. It's about governing a nation in the General. In case Hillary has not noticed, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party voters are dropping like flies and re-registering as Independents. Why the hell do you think that is?  In any event, I believe we are obligated to reject this partisan bickering and join Barack Obama in the real Politics of CHANGE. I believe we can achieve this WITHOUT dividing the nation in the process. Don't you ?
Paul - I'll take issue with it.  Revenge has nothing to do with my support of Hillary.  Would it be a nice side dish?  Absolutely.  But I wouldn't spend my vote on someone merely to stick it to Republicans.  I think that sort of thing is childish.  
Susan...Kick it in high gear girl, I'm on your side. I feel the same way about the DRAG QUEEN! Rudy is the worst of the lot.
in response to democrat:

Mitt would hold Hillary's feet to the fire over health care, and other real issues.  He doens't care about the Monica stuff.  
In response to the Democrats who seem to be embracing Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment of 'speak no evil against thy fellow (in this case) Democrats, I have to paraphrase Mario Cuomo, when he praised Newt Gingich, and state that I am a patriot before I am a partisan (and I am a very partisan Democrat).  And with that in mind, I can't say that I would support just any Democrat who wins the nomination for president.  I support Obama because not only was he prescient on the issue of the war in Iraq and certainly demonstrates tne mettle to pursue a strong foreign policy but also because he is the embodiment of the attributes required to build the concensus necessary to successfully lead this country.  What a contrast to the man now occupying the office.  
   And that's not to say that Hillary isn't intellegent; it's simply that she doesn't have the credentials needed to unify this sadly polarized nation.  Why would we start from a position where the opposing political lines are already drawn?  We really have to move forward and she is not the best engine to accomplish this goal.  BTW, John McCain also possesses the qualities for leadership (or had possessed them before he was compelled to make himself a Bush clone in order to try to win the Republican nomination).  And although I strongly disagree with McCain's position on Iraq, I have seen him demonstrate, time and time again, that he is able to lead in a bipartisan a manner.
   Obama, on the other hand, has got it all, the right positions and the right temperment, and he has inspired me more than any presidential candidate since JFK.  I will work strongly for him and expect him to win.  However, if Hillary gets the nomination, I will be disappointed that we Americans have missed a great opportunity to effect a positive change in government and advance toward the goal of fulfilling the spiritual nature of the American dream.  I may still vote for Mrs. Clinton if she gets the Democratic nomination, but only as the lesser of evils.  And if she is running against McCain (both of whom have supported this catastrophic war), I will either consider my vote very carefully, or maybe, not vote at all (which, contrary to conventional wisdom, is a vote for none of the above) .
Wow, Jerry.  Someone must have put some pep pills in the kool aide this morning.  You're just so chipper!

Try coming back here when any GOP candidate can post a lead over a Dem candidate for at least two or more polls, when the generic ballots aren't so far to the Democratic Party's advantage that it is a joke, or when the GOP candidates start to close the HUGE money gap that they have with the Dem candidates.  If they can do any of those things (but especially the money, good LORD you guys are getting pasted on the fund raising) you might have a chance.  But I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.
Mitchell, I think you answered my question. I have been wondering if Senator Obama's supporters were strictly Democrats. I don't believe they are after reading everyone's thoughts here.  Someone here posted a poll earlier last week that showed Senator Obama coming in third with Republican voters, which at the time I found curious.

There is something strange going on with the Clinton and Obama supporters. And at the core is the "divisive" issue.

Great comments on this issue from everyone. Very interesting.

Senator Obama is my choice as well.
My work on earth has not been in vain.  Even Jerry makes sense this morning and Carrie hasn't screeched once.  My compliments to all on a great thread.
oops! Carrie did screech once responding to the tres serious Sierra about Bill Clinton's not being on the ticket and "rehashed junk."  But then nobody's perfect.  At least she is trying. She sure is.


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