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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Yesterday's debate (D)

Posted: Monday, August 20, 2007 9:12 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

The Washington Post: “Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) drew fire from his rivals for his relative lack of political experience, but amid subtle digs from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson over his approach to foreign policy, he calmly took the heat.” Also: “The candidates touched on the subject of whether Clinton was too polarizing to win the general election, as outgoing White House adviser Karl Rove postulated last week and reiterated on three Sunday talk shows.”

VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama on opponents questioning if he’s ready to be president.

The Boston Globe says the Democrats “battled yesterday over how they would direct the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq in a debate … that largely stayed clear of personal attacks.”

The New York Times on the subdued nature of the debate: "But even in their disagreements, their voices came across as far more subdued and measured, particularly compared with side-by-side appearances earlier this month. As one sign of this, Democrats pointed to the performance of John Edwards as a reflection of a calculation that the kind of spirited attacks that won applause at a labor debate at Soldier Field this month in Chicago might not sit well on a Sunday morning with Iowa Democrats."

The Los Angeles Times adds, "Whether it was the early hour -- the local starting time was 8 a.m. -- or the churchly sanctity of a Sunday morning, the session was among the tamest of the campaign season. Much of the 90-minute program was dominated by the two front-runners, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, both as participants and as topics of discussion."

Fox News commissioned Frank Luntz to hold a focus group of Iowans to react to the debate. Obama was the big winner, according to Luntz, while Clinton seemed to lose ground.

Des Moines Register's Yepsen gave the debate to Obama. "He was in the cross hairs for much of the early part of the session and he stood up well to the scrutiny over his foreign policy positions and questions of whether he¹s qualified to be president."

So did The Politico’s Roger Simon. “[W]hile the debate pretty much stayed at sea level for all 90 minutes, there was a high point or two and I thought Barack Obama did the best in advancing his message. His campaign accurately has identified his greatest weakness — lack of national experience — and has devised a strategy to turn it into a strong point.” 

The AP's Fournier notes how the debate underscored the change vs. experience sub-primary taking place between Obama and Clinton.

The New York Times’ Phillips was critical of the lack of attention the candidates and the organizers paid to the mortgage crisis.

And the Des Moines Register’s Beaumont leads his dispatch with Edwards, saying he “worked carefully” to paint Clinton as a “Washington, D.C., insider.”

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Comments

The repubs are just jealous.  Any one of the dems top 4 would make a good prez. They on the other hand can not total all 4 of theirs and get 1 good one.

I for one do not care at this point who wins the dem nomination to run for prez. They will win and be MUCH better than what we have now.

The people have had enough.
NO, NO, Nope! Lyn MD you are the TROLL!! J. Merle is the real Democrat here. Susan, Amy and Blue State Baby are the real deal. MK MO is the bigot and sexist jerk
we hope forgets to vote.
Thanks J. Merle for all your great insights.
LYN MD AND MK MO can stick their votes where the sun don't shine.
Hey wait a minute....just because some sensible Democrats are not in lock-step with Hillary Clinton does not make us TROLLS.  We consider ourselves open-minded....let the process play itself out without media bias.  I believe the American people will come to the right decision when choosing the next president...and many Hillary-lovers will be in for a rude awakening.
WHY DONT SOMEONE LAY THE DIFFERENT  POLICIES HERE>

IRAQ WAR:

Hillary: Voted for and refuses to apologize
Obama: VOTED AGAINST
Edwards: Voted for BUT AT LEAST APOLOGIZED

PAC/Lobbyists:

Hillary: Accepts
Obama:  Refuses
EDwards: Refuses

Please list them and soon you will see why HRC is a nasty dirty pathological liar. I ma trying to understand why she is getting endorsements. It is true the whole DEMOCRATIC establishment fears her. SHE RULES THEM. Cant  believe this is USA. IF democrats are dumb to vote her as nominee, then I go republican.
Van and friends:

You know, right now where I am it's 75 degrees.  I'm definitely not going to suppose it's going to be 75 degrees in 12 hours.  It'll be in the 90's.  

In the daytime it'll be in the 90's over and over again.  Every time I check the thermometer, it'll bounce around the high 80's and sometimes the low 100's.  But I'm definitely not going to suppose the daytime temps will be in the 90's in 5 months.  It'll be in the 40's, 50's and 60's.

Sound familiar?  

Polls are a lot like thermometers.  They tell you the climate of that moment, but sadly they can't be used to predict future conditions.
Van, the problem with your 'facts' isn't that the polls are wrong.  It's that you use them to suggest things that the polls do not predict.

For example, the focus groups and polls of people who watch a debate are relevant because these are people who we know are exposed to the candidates.  What they show is people who see Obama, Clinton, Edwards, et al. Obama is favored.

When you cite a national poll to try to suggest something else, you are getting a majority of people who have not seen the candidates side by side.  So it's apples and oranges, yet you still try to imply that it counters the focus group/viewer polls.

By the primaries and caucuses, the voters of the early states will have been spammed with campaign messages through mail, door-knocking, telephone, tv ads, radio ads, and newspaper editorials.

At the very least, you'll have to counter with data of voters who have had a strong degree of exposure of the candidates and their messages, if you want to predict some outcome.

Also I don't suppose the national polls you cite are necessarily crooked.  But people expect early state results to be a strong determining factor in national polls, which will be much more relevant come Feb. 5.  To predict what the polls will be then, on Feb. 5, people look to predict early state results.

Today's national polls don't predict national polls of next February.
H P Boston / "MK MO is the bigot and sexist jerk"
 if you want to see a real bigot and sexist jerk  h p look in the mirror, pretty lame, maybe you can get van to write some clever response for ya since it seems 2nd grade name calling is all you can muster up on your own
Hillary has her pluses, and Obama has his pluses.  Hillary is more of an insider, and Obama is more fresh.  The question will boil down to.. the next president is going to have a historical mess on their hands... Iraq... not to mention domestic problems that are growing more dire.. housing market, credit crunch, healthcare, education, infrastructure.  The question is, do we need someone with more experience, who is likely to find compromise in moderate positions.. or do we think fresh ideas are needed more.  It's a tough call... I am still undecided, but that's the bottom line as I see it.
Well Jeff Morgan all we have is the here and now.  Come back and check in next February.
".....J Merle...not with my vote.  I believe you are the real Troll trying to get people to support Hillary so the democrats will not win.  Only someone who does not want the democrats to win would support Hillary
lyn, MD (Sent Monday, August 20, 2007 5:12 PM)....."

What are you, NUTS?
Karl Rove attacks Hillary because he KNEW the media would play it up as a "head-game," and that's exactly what they did. Rove isn't stupid, he knew what the press would say, and some of you have taken the bait.
Then, the G.O.P. runs around yacking about how they "want" Hillary (to run against).
But, the last time they tried that kind of psychology she whooped em' good!
Don't you understand? They are scared to death of her!
That, and that alone is the reason they have been attacking her for 6 years.
They couldn't, didn't, can't and won't beat her.
As far as being a troll is concerned...take a good look in the mirror lyn. You are the one who advocates dissention, and division within our party.
People like you, not me, are the reason the Democratic Party was so far behind the 8 ball fo so many years.
Oh, and by the way lyn......just to return the favor.....I'll vote for a republiCANT before I vote for Obama, Kucinich, or Gravel.
MK-MO

John Edwards can probably win the general, IF he wins the nomination. However, if he preforms as bad in the debates against Rudy he will not win in November. John was my second choice in 04, and was so happy when he was selected VP, I thought he'd kill Cheney in the debate, but he was almost as bad as Lieberman was in 00! Cheney gives him the easiest gift, claiming despite being at the Senate X times a week (my memory falls me on the frequency he gave) that night was the first time he ever saw John. John said nothing, and allowed it to appear as though he never showed up to the Senate. He was a great litigator, and I was shocked at his performance. Elizabeth was seething. Immediately after the debate, before she even congratulated John she went to Cheney and told him he had obviously forgotten the numerous prior times he has met John, and informed her of the number of times she had been present when they had talked to each other. One of the events I recall her bringing up was the time John and Dick sat next to each other on the dais at the national prayer breakfast (a 2 + hour event that was less than 2 years prior). John should have remembered that, (and other times he talked with the VP) and said "Mr. VP you know that is not true, we have met many times in and out of the Senate Chamber, are you telling America you don't recall sitting directly beside me for several hours at the head head table for the national prayer breakfast" And if they held hands during the prayer, he could have added that. Not only would Cheney's cheap shot been exposed for what it was, but some voters would be impressed finding out John was active in that group. On Sundays debate he missed the golden opportunity to state there was no difference between what Hillary said about taking nukes off the table against Iran, and Obama saying the same about Pakistan. One could argue given Pakistan has the nuke Obama's statement is wiser than Hillary's regarding Iran, because at least they don't currently have nukes. Instead he said a bunch of nonsense, and then basically sided with Hillary- that there was a difference between the comments. DUMB Mistake!!!!

John could probably win the general if he is the nominee, but he would have to be on his game far more often.

Joe Biden would coast to a general election victory. He'd be able to kill Rudy on a 9-11 debate. If Joe knew prior to 9-11 that our greatest security risk was not a nuke from a foreign nation with a return address on its bomb, but from terrorist striking our ports, in the hull of an airplane, etc. And repeated his earlier warnings on SEPTEMBER 10TH 2001 less than 24 hours prior to the attack, Rudy wouldn't be able to succeed in claiming we had no way of knowing....

Realistically Biden is the one candidate who could beat anyone of the Republican's. John could Beat Mitt, but would be hard pressed to beat Rudy.
Oh MK  Do not be so disturbed, you have done nothing but name call and even worse lob truly disgusting labels on Senator Clinton.  Every day you have dragged out the wooden cross, hammer and nails and bloodied her. Move on up to 6th grade and tell us about John Edwards who is a darn good candidate for president. Save all your venom for the scabs in the White House.
Oh MK  Do not be so disturbed, you have done nothing but name call and even worse lob truly disgusting labels on Senator Clinton.  Every day you have dragged out the wooden cross, hammer and nails and bloodied her. Move on up to 6th grade and tell us about John Edwards who is a darn good candidate for president. Save all your venom for the scabs in the White House.
Oh MK  Do not be so disturbed, you have done nothing but name call and even worse lob truly disgusting labels on Senator Clinton.

Every day you have dragged out the wooden cross, hammer and nails and bloodied her.

Move on up to 6th grade and tell us about John Edwards who is a darn good candidate for president.

Save all your venom for the scabs in the White House.




Unfortunately, I don't think the American people will get it.  They will look at Obama and only see his black face and tell themselves it is his lack of experience that wouldn't allow them to vote for him.  Too bad for our country because he will be a great president.  To many it is better to vote for Clinton who is perceived as more experience when in fact Clinton and  Obama have roughly the same amount of experience.  

Yes, Clinton talks a good game but it is her and people like her that are responsible for this untenable situation we have in Iraq.  That is the truth and it's no changing it no matter how much double speak we hear.  Now, as Americans we have to step out on faith and elect a leader that is not part of the establishment- but who has a decency and core set of values that reflect our own.  This is the only way to correct that damage that has been done to our country and that is going to take courage.

I listened to Bush in his speeches and knew he would go to war long before he ever declared war.  I have listened to Hillary as well, mark my words, she will NEVER END this war in Iraq.  Vote for her if you please but she will never end this war- she is just as  Obama said: Bush-Cheney lite.  
Good Morning,
First, I'ld like to respectfully disclose that I am a registered Rpublican; Non the less though, like everyone else I am a very proud American. This year's elections are of greater interest than others and therefore, I am following them with great care.
I watched the Debate yesterday between Senitors Clinton and Obama and must say that I was disappointed with the fact that the commentator, Ms. Campbell Brown did not exercise the same curtersies to Senitor Clinton that she did to Senitor Obama. Senitor Clinton stayed on track and to the point and did not deviate from the topic, whereas, Senitor Obama did deviate from the topic, trying to use the time to promote his agenda and exeded his time frame. Ms. Brown allowed the deviations to continue, along with the fact that the questions and topics where not properly addresed or answered by Senitor Obama.I find this most inappropriate; The Media has the opportunity to influence the public, but should regardless of their own position and feelings,should  stay neutral.


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