First thoughts
Posted: Monday, August 20, 2007 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
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The Guns Of August Didn’t Fire: Overall, yesterday’s debate that had "August" written all over it, meaning the candidates decided not to take advantage of opportunities to engage. Instead, at almost every opportunity, the front-runners took pains to NOT engage, even when questions from the moderator tried to create spats. So in the absence of a "moment," it's hard not to declare Clinton the winner of this debate because, like boxing, if the champ doesn't get knocked out, then the champ is still the champ. This is not to say Obama and Edwards did poorly in this debate. To the contrary, both seemed more presidential than in previous debates, and many post-debate analyses had Obama as the winner (which shows that Obama has come a long way since that first debate in Orangeburg). But neither seemed comfortable trying to take down the front-runner: They took veiled shots at Clinton but in a way that was, well, "Iowa nice."
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A Cautious Field: Biden -- not surprisingly -- seemed to have helped himself the most, followed by -- surprisingly -- Richardson. Of course, Richardson had a VERY low bar to surpass since he's been anywhere from bad to disastrous; Richardson was neither bad nor disastrous today. All of the candidates seemed well aware that the main audience for this debate was Iowa Democrats, and recent history has shown Iowa Democrats don't like sharp elbows. So that may explain some of the cautiousness that gripped the entire Democratic field.
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Enough Is Enough: The decision to limit the number of debates and forums Obama will agree to for the rest of this calendar year is something that will upset a number of key Democratic interest groups. It seems a day doesn't go by that some left-of-center group doesn't pop up with a forum idea. Four months ago, we would have guessed it would have been Clinton -- not Obama -- who called for a halt to these things. But since Clinton has seen her ratings with Dems go up with every debate or forum appearance, she seems to have decided the more exposure she gets the more comfortable Democrats get with her. These forums have become her national listening tour.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Barack Obama rejecting offers for any additional debates.
*** Biden’s Moment: Will Biden ever get his moment? He is the Democrats' Huckabee -- meaning that he seems to perform well at every debate or forum, but doesn't have the resources to do anything more with it. With his first TV ads now airing in Iowa, we'll be watching closely to see if he can move the needle. If he can't, then our guess is that Biden will wonder how long he can go on.
*** Nunn Of The Above: Don’t miss the news that former Sen. Sam Nunn (D) -- remember him? -- might be interested in running for president as an independent. Nunn’s interest raises this question: Why haven’t other political has-beens expressed more interest in a possible 2008 candidacy? What better way to get back in the news to push a pet issue? In Nunn's case, the pet issue is a big one: nukes.
*** VFW Politics: In Kansas City today, Clinton addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention, and then McCain follows her. Obama and Fred Thompson speak to the group tomorrow. And President Bush goes before the group on Wednesday. As the Washington Post puts it, “The VFW convention is not a standard campaign stop, according to VFW National Commander Gary Kurpius, and he said it is unprecedented to have candidates address the organization before winning the nomination.” Do either Clinton or Obama get booed?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Huckabee campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama does the same; and Tommy Thompson -- who no longer is in the race -- appears on Comedy Central’s Daily Show.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 14 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 61 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 78 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 89 days
Countdown to Iowa: 146 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 168 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 442 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 519 days
