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Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Edwards leads in IA poll

Posted: Thursday, August 30, 2007 8:54 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

A new Time magazine poll of Iowa has Edwards leading at 29%, followed by Clinton at 24%, Obama at 22%, and Richardson at 11%. “For Edwards, the poll has some less welcome news as well. So far, at least, his attempts to portray himself as the real change agent in the race — the one who wants to slam the door on lobbyists and other ‘Washington insiders’ — isn't paying off. Obama beats him by 35% to 25% on the question of who ‘will take on special interests in Washington.’ (Clinton trailed with 19%.) Iowa Democrats seem to like Edwards more for who he is than for what he says; they call him the ‘most likable’ and the one who best understands their concerns, but his toss-out-the-insiders message hasn't stuck.”

CLINTON: “Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign said yesterday that it would give to charity $23,000 it had received from a prominent Democratic donor, and review thousands of dollars more that he had raised, after learning that the authorities in California had a warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 fraud case,” the New York Times says. “The travails of Mr. Hsu have proved an embarrassment for the Clinton campaign, which has strived to project an image of rectitude in its fund-raising and to dispel any lingering shadows of past episodes of tainted contributions.”

The LA Times also reports that Hsu said “that he would ‘refrain from all fundraising activities’ until he resolved an outstanding warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 criminal case in San Mateo County… Hsu has donated or raised more than $1 million for Democrats and their causes. He served as a ‘bundler,’ rounding up a group of donors and then packaging their checks together. He is a member of Clinton's ‘HillRaiser’ group, individuals who pledged to raise more than $100,000 for her presidential campaign.”

The Wall Street Journal adds that “Clinton and other prominent Democrats scrambled to unload thousands of dollars of contributions from one of the party's leading fund-raisers, amid questions about his fund-raising techniques and news that a warrant for his arrest has been languishing in California since the early 1990s.” 

EDWARDS: Salon writes: “This summer … Edwards has taken a new turn. For the first time in his career, he is running for office by criticizing segments of the Democratic Party, the institution he has long held up as the only hope for restoring economic justice in America.” And the online magazine writes that Edwards has put a new spin on Howard Dean’s “ ‘I'm here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.’ Edwards put it this way: ‘We cannot triangulate our way to real change. We cannot compromise our way to real change. But we can lead to real change.’”

OBAMA: In a New York Daily News op-ed, Obama calls for sanctions against Iran and companies who invest heavily in the country and wants to put an end to Bush’s “tough talk.” “The Bush administration and an anonymous senator are blocking a bill with bipartisan support that would ratchet up the pressure on the Iranian regime. It's time for this obstructionism to stop.” He warns that Iran’s going forward with its nuclear program and mentions that Amadinejad “declared that Israel must be ‘wiped off the map.’” In the piece, he also hints he would meet with Amadinejad: “While conventional Washington thinking says we can only talk to people who agree with us, I believe that strong countries and strong Presidents shouldn't be afraid to talk directly to our adversaries to tell them where America stands. The Bush-Cheney diplomacy of not talking to Iran has not worked.”

Per the New York Times, a Web site -- with ties to a prominent GOP donor who was a major backer of radio ads last year linking Democrats with David Duke -- is going after Obama. “Harsh attacks on candidates from sources with murky motivations and support are nothing new in American politics, particularly in presidential campaigns, where the stakes are high and the interested parties are often well heeled and ideologically driven. In the current presidential contest, the ObamaTruth.org project is one of the more sophisticated assaults on a candidate, with downloadable videos titled ‘The Audacity of Barack Obama’ and periodic press releases announcing updates. The Obama campaign declined to comment.”

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Comments

Go John, you are what the repugnants fear most.  That is why they all crossed over in 2004 to vote for Kerry.  They knew shrub would look like the idiot he is if he had to debate John in public.
America, Iowa voters know what they are doing and they like John Edwards.  He is the best man for the people of this great country to lead us back to the America we can be proud of again.

Edwards 08!
I would put the the analysis of the Iowa poll slightly diffeently.  If 29% of Democrats in Iowa support Edwards, and 25% of Democrats in Iowa think he's the best change agent, that means that the vast majority of his supporters DO see him as a change agent, and suggests that they ARE voting for him based on that; rather, I think the fact that the two numbers are close together actually suggests a ceiling for Edwards' Iowa support beyond those who he already has had in his corner, and the fact that Obama's change number is 35% - thirteen points ahead of his caucus support - means that Obama has major upside potential in Iowa.  In contrast, Clinton's numbers have the potential to go down in the state, as less see her as a change agent than support her.
After her less then tasty week of Chinese money, the numbers should be going even lower Hillary as more people find out about the criminal element of her campaign. This is also an embarrassment for the state of California and New York, if he had to get any I.D. (drivers license, social security card etc), how did he get by the red flags that would have arisen if he tried to get those cards?  Must be some good connections in the state motor vehicle department.  Hillary now has the Chinese money problem to add to her growing legacy of lies and deceptions.

Just one more thing; If she is elected President, will Norman Hsu be her first Pardon?
I think edwards is a good person for the job, he has workable plans that he has layed out in detail, and he is the only dem candidate that can win the general election, always has been
It doesn't make any logical sense for TIME to assume that Iowans like Edwards for who he is but not what he says--in fact, that's plain stupid.  

Edwards has many more ideas than his change message (health care, poverty, energy, wages) and these are exactly why Iowans like him.

The media wants to discredit Edwards supporters as image-obsessed, when the media is the one crazed over the superficial.  It's more than likability.

Go Edwards.  
jerry/corpus christi texas-you better hope that the next President pardons you. The day that you take a shot at hypocracy on your side of the aisle will be the first, and then, maybe, I'll pay attention to what you say. Consider this a challenge from someone whe wants a positive discussion of the issues for once.
Edwards/Feingold '08
I love the way the GOP is trying to make the Hsu issue this big scandal when it really is not. When you look at the money Halliburton gave to all those Texas GOP criminals who ended up in Washington and what Halliburton got in return makes the Clinton story look like nothing. Bottom line, the GOP is still the best at crimes, crimes and more crimes.  
Why are we not revealing the name of the charity Hillary gave the 23000 to? I think it would be very civil of her to donate this kind of money to some entity that gives aid and council to Republican homosexuals. There seems to be quite a lot of them cropping up lately, and I expect a few more of them will be making headlines in months to come. I think we've just seen the tip of the iceberg.
Anybody who wants to have a "positive" discussion of the issues, I'm all ears.  

Consider this:

Hillary's theme song "a brand new day" by Celine Dion
Her new song "living on the Chinese wall" by Phillip Bailey.

Hillary Clinton:  "Let's talk, Let's chat, Let's have a conversation"
At her campaign rallies, you need a case of no doze and Bill Clinton to get the rallies going.

Hillary Clinton:  "there will be a new direction in my administration!"
So far, all we are getting is the 1990's version of Bill Clinton
Jerry - From what I understand, Hsu is not charged with a federal crime.  Presidents can only pardon those convicted of federal crimes.  But thanks for playing.  
Mr Sir Jerry I Think The Internet And The NewsPapers,& The TV News Stated That He Contributed To The Democratic Party,So I Wonder How Did You Just Get Senator Clintons Name Out Of This,I Also Wonder How In The Hell Everyone Else Only Gets Senator Clinton,I've Heard No Mention Of The Others Why Not
Ricardo, and they have the market cornered on gays but vote against any initiative that give gays some rights. LOL Talk about being confused. Crooked, corrupt and gay, the new GOP image.
I would not be surprised at all if Edwards won Iowa.  Out of all the candidates, Democrat and Republicans, I think he does seem like the most likeable.  And although I don't believe that should be the be-all end-all when it comes to choosing a candidate, it seems to me that it should count for something.    
The Republicans aren't making the big issue with Hsu. It's other Democrats running, namely Hillary's biggest rivals--Obama and Edwards. I agree with the assessment made about the Iowa numbers. It appears that Obama and Edwards have the best upside potential while Hillary will slide. I believe all this negativity from her campaign along side the less than legal campaign contributions (she can spin them any way she wants till they're dizzy, she can't get around the fact she accepted dirty money), she will slide no matter how much and how often the MSM attempt to shove her down our throats.
jerri is just jealous that it is monica and hillary with bill instead of jerri.
<<Mr Sir Jerry I Think The Internet And The NewsPapers,& The TV News Stated That He Contributed To The Democratic Party,So I Wonder How Did You Just Get Senator Clintons Name Out Of This,I Also Wonder How In The Hell Everyone Else Only Gets Senator Clinton,I've Heard No Mention Of The Others Why Not>>

He donated to both the DNC as well as specific Democratic candidates and campaigns including that of Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton. While others are not in the spotlight except in their own state, Hillary is in the national spotlight making her acceptance of said money an even bigger issue. Did she accept money from him in the past while running 2x for Senator from New York? Is there more money than she's officially stated that she kept? While others have unloaded all the money, it seems a little odd that she only is giving up $23k when he's donated and raised millions.
Can we not defend this please?? This HSU issue is wrong plain and simple. It doesn't help anyone in politics, but especially us democrats!!! WE cannot afford to throw stones---especially if Hillary is our nominee!!!
Carrie, Jerry is a bad version of Fox News, trying to spin a story and not knowing how to spin it .. you go Jerry boy ...keep up the bad work ....
TO: jerry/corpus cristi:  

Your uber-conservative, Republican pantyhose are beginning to show more and more. Don't get them caught in public restrooms.
Hmmm, maybe Hillary is giving the $23,000 to ObamaTruth.org.
Hasn't Edwards talked, in person, to everyone in Iowa by now. Edwards winning Iowa would be as meaningful as Romney winning the Ames straw poll. He has no chance in NH, has pulled out of NV, and is not really running a national campaign. This year the primary will be over in a blink of an eye, and Edwards doesn't seem to have a chance on a national level.
Actually, it was democratic CANDIDATES, not the party. If he had given to the party, there would be no candidate whose financing came into question (again)to donate the money. We are so stupid, we will again elect the wealthiest candidate anyway...most, even those who caucus and attend primaries, care to know what the issues are.
At this junction, I would like to see anyone among Biden, Obama, Edwards, Hillary, and others win the presidency.  However, one has to be careful not to oversimplify the situation.  When it comes to John Edwards, one of the problems he has is perception.

1) Perception:
  We all understand that had John Edwards not resigned from his senate seat couple years ago, he probably would have not been reelected.  Now one has to wonder if you cannot win your own state(Al Gore-2000 & John Edwards-2004), then it is hard to convince many people that you are a viable candidate as you are perceived to be weak even in your state.
 In addition, I think many people simply believe he will not be able to win the general election.  For instance, we remember how he was ridiculed for calling the war on terror a quote: "Bumper Sticker".
When comes general election time, we all know how the republicans will run all over him on that statement alone.  In fact when talking about him, some observers are already discarding him as being on the very left flank of the party.  That may not be fair, however we all know how perception can destroy a politician just as fast as it can uplift them.
<<Jerry - From what I understand, Hsu is not charged with a federal crime.  Presidents can only pardon those convicted of federal crimes.  But thanks for playing.   >>

He is, however, under federal investigation. This will likely lead to charges down the road.
Face it the “Gay Old Party” is falling to pieces and they are running around like rats for the nearest exit.
Someone remind me again of the democrat presidential candidates that support gay marriage? Looks like it's time for the log cabin boys to fire up investigations into hypocrisy on the democrat side. Surely some of these conservative democrats they had to drag in to win seats are in the closet.

Go !! JOHNNY GO !!
Keep standing up to the special interests and the lobbyists !!

John, keep speaking out against corrupt politicians, Republican OR Democratic !!   ;-)

It's the message that's driving John, populism !!
Let's put an end to the Democrats nominating Washington insiders !!

The cover says 'Business LOVES HILLARY'
(Fortune Magazine) -- One of Hillary Clinton's most important courtships began early last year, around a formal dinner table at Georgetown's Four Seasons Hotel. Her targets were Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack and his wife, Christy. Mack was already active politically - but on behalf of Clinton's political opponents. A Bush "Ranger," he had raised at least $200,000 for the President's reelection bid'

Why is this man contributing to Hillary ?
What does he expect to get in return ??
Why does BUSINESS LOVE HILLARY ??
What promises is she making to business ??

Who are the 24% support Hillary ??
Are they Bush's old supporters hoping to jump from one sinking ship to another ?

When will we have a Democratic party that stands for the people instead of the corporations and the lobbyists ??

Answer: When Edwards and Obama are both on the 2008 Democratic ticket !!
With Edwards it isn't just a likeability issue, it's also the message.  He's focused solidly on helping the Middle Class, which is a winning message for Democrats if they'll use it.
From the LA Times:
WASHINGTON -- Democratic donor Norman Hsu said Wednesday that he would "refrain from all fundraising activities" until he resolved an outstanding warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 criminal case in San Mateo County.

Hsu, a major fundraiser over the last three years for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York

He'll suspend fund raising until Hillary issues a pardon !!
What other crooked fund raisers does Hillary employ ?
Is Mark Rich involved in Hillary's campaign ??
I like it that a poll that shows someone other than senator Clinton in the lead can be, "analyzed", as opposed to, "minimized", or completely discounted. Small sample size, anyone?

The Hsu, "scandal",  is now reduced to snipes at which charity recipients of his largess will or have chosen to remove that fishy smell, now that the scope and number of,"lucky", winners of his favors expands hourly.

Posting the title of an anti- Senator Obama site that is as reprehensible as any that are dedicated to my personal choice, even used as another in a seemingly unending stream of cheap shots against HER, is in poor taste, and poor judgment.

The NYT article in today's main section, about that site, is instructive as to the kind of operatives behind these things. People who use these slanderous websites as, "sources", for their attacks should realize that they are bogus, no matter WHICH candidate's character they are using their agenda to try to assassinate.


Van
In response to Doles of Miami... Actually polls conducted and released at the time showed that had Edwards of run for re-election to the senate in NC that he would have held his seat by a good margin. Several percent of people who voted for Burr said they would have voted for Edwards had he remained in the race. You can look this up easily with a few searches on google if you're interested.
Sky-Captain; Didn't Mr. Edwards leave you orders to make sure the flower gardens were to be tilled before he returns to the big house on Friday?  read upward about how Hillary is returning HER money she received from her Chinese connection. Very bad post sir.

Carrie; if Hsu is not found guilty on Federal charges, there is no justice in America.

I still remember the Time article about the Clinton's
in Iowa.

Bill spoke and all the women went wild......
Hillary spoke and everybody drifted off......

I tried to watch Hillary speak myself on CSPAN, but I keep falling asleep after 10 minutes........

She has all the charisma of a freshly painted wall...


Edwards hasn't pulled out of NV - he still has some staff there but he is focusing his efforts on Iowa.  Like it or not, Iowa gives you a big bump and a big bump means more money, which Edwards needs.  

If Edwards wins Iowa, it will not be because he had the most money or the most style or the best soundbites.  It will be because he spent the most time communicating with the people of Iowa about the important issues facing this country.  Retail politics versus wholesale politics.  Sadly, I think that's becoming a thing of the past with the increasing importance placed on raising big money right out of the gate.
I think Edwards would make an amazing VP to Obama. Reading the posts defending HRC's campaign sort of sounds like the GOP defending Bush.
Van,

I agree that the sudden change in feelings toward polling among some posters is a little curious.

What are your feelings about the poll? Is it less credible than the polls you cite that show Clinton ahead?

Not an attack, I'm just interested.

And for what it is worth, to me this poll is as meaningless as any other.

Van , you are right about the NYT story, they were a little late.

The WSJ did a better job showing the criminal thinking of people associated with the Clinton Campaign.

I gather the fundraiser he was going to throw for Quincy Jones in New York has been cancelled.  Hope the money has been refunded or we'll have another Hillary Scandal to deal with.

I see all the presidential candidates on the left have some kind of Hsu money.  Hillary just got the biggest push because she is the darling of the left.

I can't wait to see what "charity" she gave the money to, so we can all see their paperwork.  Van, get ready.

I can see Edwards leading Iowa.....

Edwards has a family.....
Clinton has a cheating husband....

The race in the democratic side will come down to one thing......

Do the democrats want someone honest or not?......
Looks like Iowa voters are ignoring the "inevitable" Clinton hype and turning to the candidate who makes the most sense for ordinary Americans, whether blue collar or white: Anybody who lives by paycheck, large or small, not on accumulated wealth.  

Edwards may be rich and there will be "gotcha" moments, but so are they all.  He, at least grew up with ordinary working people, knows us, has a solid plan for healthcare, fighting global warming and has been much more honest about his stand on the Iraq war, past and present then Clinton.  Hope his margin in the Iowa polls and elsewhere increases!  
Looks like Iowa voters are ignoring the "inevitable" Clinton hype and turning to the candidate who makes the most sense for ordinary Americans, whether blue collar or white: Anybody who lives by paycheck, large or small, not on accumulated wealth.  

Edwards may be rich and there will be "gotcha" moments, but so are they all.  He, at least grew up with ordinary working people, knows us, has a solid plan for healthcare, fighting global warming and has been much more honest about his stand on the Iraq war, past and present then Clinton.  Hope his margin in the Iowa polls and elsewhere increases!  
It's only a matter of time before the Democratic race crystallizes and the misrepresentations of who and what people really are kicked to the curb. I will support whomever  the democratic nominee is. What i won't do is sit back and allow the media to tell me that Hillary, or any candidate for that matter, is a lock. They'll have to earn it to get my vote.
Jerry, good morning!  You're sounding logical and well reasoned this morning, which means of course that this is one of the rare cases in which I agree with you..LOL.  Hillary really couldn't be an easier target for the right, as you demonstrate daily.  She will not get my vote in the primary, though if she gets the nomination I will just hold my nose and vote for her.    A note to those pointing up hypocrisy on either side of the aisle:  Hypocrisy is spelled with an I, not an A.
It's time we all use the Ignore this User button on jerry/corpus christi texas.
He just gets a rise out of all the attention paid to him
If you take into account the margin of error in this poll Iowa is virtually a 3 way tie.  I personally would prefer Edwards to Clinton but Obama is my first choice.
Josh-
Sadly, that you felt the need to state that your post wasn't an attack, is a reminder that those times I have afforded some here the courtesy of a reply, in the hopes of starting a dialog, it came to pass that it was the set-up for an attack.

One could call it the, "Lucy Van Pelt football maneuver". I liken it to a Venus Fly-Trap, using sweetness to lure the prey into a trap.

Our personal history here, limited as it is, gives me pause as to why my opinion would would interest you.
While there is a good chance, that your inquiry is well-meaning and sincere, the well, alas, has already been poisoned. It is a shame that it took less than 2 weeks to get to this point.

Van
Doles, Miami, FL / edwards is the only dem who can win the general election
whatever happened to the Enron-Bush campaign money----  the Enron plane,the coronation money?Oh,that's right moneybags died---how conveeeenient.
Carrie, Edwards has basically ceded NV. He pulled "a few people out".

He only had a few people.

John Edwards is too much the hypocrite to win election. He tells people, as he did yesterday, to give up their SUVs (although he has one), while he lives in a 30,000 sf house.
jerry "Loves Me Like  A Rock"-Simon and Garfunkel, refuses to "Turn the Page"-Seger, "I'm So Sorry Uncle Albert"Beatles and won't "Hey, You Get Off Of My Cloud"-Rolling Stones. "Imagination is breaking my heart"-Traveling Wilburys


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